[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月13日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [油价与美债利率 Table_NewTitle] 的走势分化，避险资产 配置与国内消费、科技的强化 ——资产配置周报（2025/04/07-2025/04/11） [table_main] 投资要点 策略研究 正文目录 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾：至4月11日当周，全球主要股市仅美股收涨；主要商品期货中黄金、 铝、铜收涨，原油收跌；美元指数下跌，人民币 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the divergence in the trends of oil prices and US Treasury yields, indicating that the recent drop in oil prices, with Brent crude at $64.76 per barrel (down 13% from early April), typically signals expectations of economic recession. However, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose significantly by 47 basis points to 4.48%, marking the highest level since mid-February and the largest single-week sell-off in the US bond market since September 2019. This divergence suggests a weakening of the traditional safe-haven status of US Treasuries, while increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains intact [8][9][10]. Group 2 - In the domestic equity market, as of April 11, 2025, the average daily trading volume was 15,751 billion yuan, up from 11,173 billion yuan previously. The report notes that the consumer sector outperformed, followed by finance, while cyclical and growth sectors lagged. Among the 31 sectors tracked, only 4 sectors saw gains, with agriculture, retail, and defense industries leading the way, while power equipment, telecommunications, and machinery sectors faced significant declines [18][19]. Group 3 - The report discusses the strengthening of domestic consumption and technology sectors, with expectations for continued growth in GDP and key economic indicators such as industrial output and retail sales. The anticipated release of trade data is expected to provide further insights into the impact of trade tensions and credit conditions on domestic consumption policies. The report suggests that while there may be short-term risks related to raw material price declines and export impacts, the long-term outlook remains positive for leading industry players and new technological applications [10][11][12].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月11日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250411 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 1.核心CPI转正，PPI仍存结构性矛盾——国内观察：2025年3月通胀数据 ➢ 2.安徽合力（600761）：全年销量增速高于行业，国际化实现新跨越——公司简评报告 ➢ 3.3月挖机内销持续复苏，国内龙头回购股份确立信心——机械设备行业简评 ➢ 4.存储价格上行，半导体设备国产化旋律进一步深化——半导体行业3月份月报 ➢ 1.商务部：将帮助外贸企业扩宽内销渠道 ➢ 2.2025年全 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月10日 公 司 简 评 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：重大事项 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈芯楠 cxn@longone.com.cn | [数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2025/04/10 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 12.20 | | 总股本(万股) | 991,409 | | 流通A股/B股(万股) | 826,073/164,1 61 | | 资产负债率(%) | 59.36% | | 市净率(倍) | 1.62 | | 净资产收益率(加权) | 4.95 | | 12个月内最高/最低价 | 18.90/11.32 | [Table_QuotePic] -43% -33% -22% -11% 0% 11% 21% 32% 24-04 24-07 24-10 25-01 长安汽车 沪深300 [相关研究 Table_Report] 《长安汽车（000625）：2月新能源销 量同比提升，智驾平 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月10日 公 司 简 评 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：重大事项 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈芯楠 cxn@longone.com.cn | [数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2025/04/10 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 12.20 | | 总股本(万股) | 991,409 | | 流通A股/B股(万股) | 826,073/164,1 61 | | 资产负债率(%) | 59.36% | | 市净率(倍) | 1.62 | | 净资产收益率(加权) | 4.95 | | 12个月内最高/最低价 | 18.90/11.32 | [Table_QuotePic] -43% -33% -22% -11% 0% 11% 21% 32% 24-04 24-07 24-10 25-01 长安汽车 沪深300 [相关研究 Table_Report] 《长安汽车（000625）：2月新能源销 量同比提升，智驾平 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月10日 [核心Table_NewTitle] CPI转正，PPI仍存结构性矛盾 ——国内观察：2025年3月通胀数据 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 胡少华 S0630516090002 hush@longone.com.cn 联系人 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 宏 观 简 评 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 ➢ 事件：2025年4月10日，统计局发布3月通胀数据。3月，CPI当月同比-0.1%，前值-0.7%； 环比-0.4%，前值-0.2%。PPI当月同比-2.5%，前值-2.2%；环比-0.4%，前值-0.4%。 ➢ 核心观点：3月CPI同比虽然仍为负，但CPI环比强于季节性，核心CPI也同比回正，扣除 能源的工业消费品价格表现回升，体现出"两新"政策的效果，不过春节后服务消费走弱 是主要拖累。PPI受 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月10日 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 联系人 商俭 shangjian@longone.com.cn | [数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2025/04/09 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 15.16 | | 总股本(万股) | 89,069 | | 流通A股/B股(万股) | 89,069/0 | | 资产负债率(%) | 42.39% | | 市净率(倍) | 1.23 | | 净资产收益率(加权) | 14.04 | | 12个月内最高/最低价 | 28.50/14.31 | [Table_QuotePic] -40% -28% -17% -5% 6% 18% 29% 41% 24-04 24-07 24-10 25-01 安徽合力 沪深300 [相关研究 Table_Report] 《安徽合力（600761）：首次海外合 资建厂，全球化布局加速——公司简 评报告》 2025.03.11 《安徽合 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月10日 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [安徽合力（ Table_NewTitle] 600761）：全年销量增速高 于行业，国际化实现新跨越 ——公司简评报告 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 风险提示：国际贸易风险；行业竞争风险；技术迭代与全球化进程不及预期风险。 | 盈利预测与估值简表 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 17,325.42 | 18,394.61 | 20,254.42 | 21,898.78 | | 同比增长率（%） | 0.99% | 6.17% | 10.11% | 8.12% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,319.63 | 1,383.99 | 1,542.12 | 1,677.84 | | 同比增长率（%） | 0.18% | 4.88% | 11.43% | 8.80% | | EPS 摊薄（元） | 1.4 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月10日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250410 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 | 1.1. PPS，性价比突出的"塑料黄金"——化工系列研究（二十四） | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1.2. 关税政策引发油价波动，关注自主可控石化链标的——原油及聚酯产业链月 | | | 报（2025 4 月） 年 | 4 | | 1.3. 常熟银行（601128）：负债成本管控强化，资产质量管理审慎——公司简评报 | | | 告 | 4 | | 2. 财经新闻 | 5 | | 3. A 股市场评述 | 7 | | 4. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong control over liability costs and prudent asset quality management by the company [1] - The company reported a revenue of 10.909 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.813 billion yuan, up 16.20% year-on-year [2] - As of the end of Q4 2024, the total asset size reached 366.582 billion yuan, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.77%, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [2][3] - The report indicates a significant increase in the company's efforts to write off non-performing loans, with 1.740 billion yuan written off in the second half of 2024 compared to 968 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a net interest margin (NIM) of 2.71% for the year, a decrease of 15 basis points year-on-year [2] - The NPL coverage ratio stood at 500.51%, down 27.89 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][7] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.585 billion yuan, 12.609 billion yuan, and 13.857 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.320 billion yuan, 4.782 billion yuan, and 5.268 billion yuan [7][8] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with the NPL ratio at 0.77% as of Q4 2024, and the report notes a marginal improvement in forward-looking indicators, signaling a slowdown in risk [3][4] - The report emphasizes the company's proactive approach in managing asset quality, particularly in the retail loan segment, where the NPL ratio has shown signs of pressure due to macroeconomic conditions [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to benefit from a broad market space in the small and micro retail sector, leveraging its regional advantages and a combination of technology and support services [7] - The report suggests that the company's high proportion of regular deposits and strong cost control measures will allow it to better navigate the current market environment [7]