[晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241224 ➢ 1.字节豆包视觉理解模型发布，美光科技数据中心业务增长强劲——电子行业周报 （2024/12/16-2024/12/22） ➢ 4.以旧换新推进顺利，储能低价行持延续——电池及储能行业周报（2024/12/16- 2024/12/22） 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 4. 市场数据 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 电子板块观点：字节跳动豆包大模型全面升级，并发布豆包视觉理解模型，千 tokens 输入价格仅为 3 厘，为行业价格的 15%；美光科技 2025 财年第一财季营收同比增长 84.1%， 数据中心收入同比增长超过 400%，环比增幅达 40%以上，其中 HBM 收入实现连续两个季 度环比翻倍增长，但下季展望低于市场预期；当前电子行业需求处于温和复苏阶段，建议关 注 AIOT、AI 驱动、设备材料、消费电子周期筑底板块四大投资主线。 [Table_Report] [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@ ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the liquor industry, particularly Wuliangye, is focusing on enhancing marketing execution and strengthening dealer profitability to boost brand value and market share [1][2] - The report highlights the positive outlook for the liquor sector, with expectations for demand recovery driven by supportive policies and a strong performance during the upcoming holiday season [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders, recommending stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.27% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.13 percentage points, ranking 16th among 31 sectors [6][15] - Sub-sectors all saw declines, with dairy products performing relatively better, down 1.55% [15] 2. Liquor Pricing - As of December 22, 2024, the price for Moutai's original box is 2335 yuan, showing a monthly increase of 80 yuan, while the price for Wuliangye remains stable at 950 yuan [48] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders, with specific stock picks including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Qingdao Beer in the beer sector [2][34] - In the snack sector, it suggests looking at companies with strong product growth logic such as Yanjin Cuisine and Gan Yuan Food [2] 4. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the liquor industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, supported by favorable policies and a strong performance during the holiday season [1][2] - It also mentions that the beer sector is experiencing cost improvements and significant inventory reduction, with a positive outlook for demand recovery [35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [97]. Core Insights - NIO has officially launched the ET9, a smart electric flagship model priced at 788,000 yuan, featuring advanced perception hardware and a fully controlled intelligent chassis. Additionally, NIO introduced a new brand, Firefly, targeting the high-end small car market with a pre-sale price of 148,800 yuan for its first model [4][86]. - Geely's new model, Galaxy Starship 7 EM-i, has achieved over 10,000 deliveries within 13 days of its launch, with a significant monthly sales increase of 121% in November [11][62]. - The retail sales of passenger cars in December are expected to grow by 15% year-on-year, supported by the continuation of trade-in policies and increased local subsidies [49][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - NIO's new brand Firefly aims to expand into the high-end small car market, with a product matrix targeting various price segments [4][86]. - Geely's Galaxy Starship 7 EM-i has shown strong market performance, indicating a shift towards electric vehicles [11][62]. 2. Industry Data Tracking - According to the China Passenger Car Association, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.083 million units in the first half of December, a year-on-year increase of 34% [14][55]. - The retail sales of new energy vehicles during the same period reached 536,000 units, reflecting a 71% year-on-year growth [14][55]. 3. Market Performance - The automotive sector overall saw a decline of 1.05% this week, with specific segments such as passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles experiencing varied performance [87]. - The automotive parts sector showed mixed results, with some sub-segments like body accessories and chassis systems facing declines [87]. 4. New Model Tracking - New models launched include Chery's iCAR V23 and other vehicles, indicating ongoing innovation in the market [92]. - The introduction of new models is expected to drive sales growth, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [50][62]. 5. Industry Dynamics - The competitive landscape in the automotive industry is intensifying, with companies focusing on innovation and market expansion [20][78]. - The establishment of new manufacturing facilities, such as Yutong's electric commercial vehicle factory in Qatar, highlights the industry's growth and international expansion efforts [95].

Investment Rating - The report rates the market index as "Overweight" and the industry index as "Overweight" [20][26] Core Insights - The trend of domestic substitution continues, with fixed asset investment in specific sectors showing bright spots. National statistics indicate that from January to November 2024, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment contributing 68.1% to total investment growth, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous month. High-tech manufacturing investment grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with aerospace and communication equipment manufacturing investments increasing by 35.4% and 8.8%, respectively [1][39] - The rail transit equipment industry is expected to maintain a favorable outlook, with companies such as CRRC Corporation, China Railway Signal & Communication Corp, and Jin Chuang Group being highlighted for potential investment opportunities [2] Summary by Sections Macro Data - The equipment manufacturing sector plays a crucial role in supporting industrial production, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% in the added value of large-scale equipment manufacturing in November 2024. The automotive and electronics sectors contributed 32.6% to the overall industrial growth. The policy effects of equipment updates are becoming evident, with significant growth in various equipment manufacturing sectors [31][63] Rail Transit Equipment - The rail sector has seen record passenger volumes, with over 4 billion passengers transported from January to November 2024, and fixed asset investment in railways reaching 711.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%. The total operating mileage of railways has surpassed 160,000 kilometers, with high-speed rail accounting for over 46,000 kilometers [27][40] Engineering Machinery - Major companies like SANY and XCMG showcased their innovations at the Shanghai Bauma Exhibition, focusing on electric and intelligent machinery solutions. SANY presented its E-MOVE fully electric excavator and various electric products tailored for mining operations, while XCMG emphasized its comprehensive solutions for tunnel construction and green mining equipment [67][68]

➢ 行情回顾：上周非银指数下跌1.7%，相较沪深300超涨1.6pp，其中券商与保险指数呈现同 步下跌态势，分别为-1.46%和-2.23%，保险指数超跌明显。市场数据方面，上周市场股基 日均成交额17361亿元，环比上一周降低20.1%；两融余额1.89万亿元，环比上一周基本 持平；股票质押市值2.86万亿元，环比上一周降低2.5%。 行业周报 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|----------|------------|----------|------------------|--------------|------------| | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 最新收盘价 | 周涨跌幅 | 周成交额（亿元） | A/H 溢价率 | A-PEV(25E) | | 601336.SH | 新华保险 | 49.64 | -0.5% | 38.53 | 130% | 0.52 | | 601628.SH | 中国人寿 | 41.43 | -1.7% | 24.48 | 208% | 0.79 | | 601319.SH | ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Bullish" with expectations of a significant increase in the market index over the next six months [51]. Core Insights - The domestic energy storage market is expected to maintain a favorable demand outlook, with a total of 43.74GW/149.71GWh of energy storage procurement completed from January to November [3]. - The report highlights the successful implementation of the vehicle replacement policy, which has positively impacted the industry’s overall sentiment [10]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like CATL and Shunfeng, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing upgrades in the energy grid and the increasing demand for energy storage solutions [1][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - The battery sector is experiencing a steady increase in demand, with December's retail sales of new energy vehicles expected to reach 1.4 million units, indicating a penetration rate of approximately 51.9% [21]. - The energy storage sector is seeing a decline in system pricing, with the lowest bid for a 4-hour energy storage system dropping below 0.4 yuan/Wh [3]. - Companies like Shunfeng Electric have achieved a full industry chain layout in energy storage, enhancing their market position [11][15]. 2. Market Performance - The battery sector saw an overall decline of 1.99% in the week of December 16-22, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.85 percentage points [34]. - Major inflows were observed in companies such as Kehua Data and Xianlead Intelligent, while significant outflows were noted for CATL and Sungrow [34]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - The average winning bid for energy storage EPC projects was approximately 0.95 yuan/Wh, reflecting a 17.2% decrease week-on-week [28]. - The report indicates that the lithium salt prices are on a downward trend, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate priced at 71,900 yuan/ton, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.55% [13]. 4. Company News - Envision Energy secured a major storage order in South Africa, providing battery storage systems for three independent projects with a total capacity of 257MW/1028MWh [46]. - The report notes that companies like Dewei and Longyuan Power are actively expanding their energy storage capabilities through new projects and partnerships [48].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" [16] Core Viewpoints - The beauty and personal care sector has shown a decline, with the Shenzheng 300 index down 0.14% and the Shenwan beauty and personal care index down 2.75%, underperforming the market by 2.61 percentage points, ranking nineteenth among all Shenwan first-level industries [18][28] - The introduction of the "Gift Giving" feature by WeChat Shop is expected to enhance e-commerce activity, particularly benefiting beauty products as gifting options [18] - The report highlights the approval of various medical devices and products, indicating ongoing innovation and regulatory progress within the industry [19][50] Market Performance - The top five gaining stocks in the sector this week were Reliable Co. (28.65%), Marubi (11.57%), Nobon (11.23%), Dengkang Oral (5.97%), and Shuiyang (4.22%) [2][18] - The top five losing stocks were ST Meigu (−12.17%), Jieya (−10.00%), Huaxi (−8.87%), Liangmian Needle (−8.15%), and Jiahen Home (−8.15%) [2][18] Company News - Aimeike has received a notice of acceptance for the registration of "Injectable Type A Botulinum Toxin" from the National Medical Products Administration, with the project delayed until December 31, 2025 [19] - Juzhi Biological's bone repair material has been approved as a Class III medical device, suitable for filling and repairing jawbone and alveolar bone defects [6][19] - Jiangsu Wuzhong has received medical device registration certificates for its recombinant collagen products [48] - Furuida's medical-grade recombinant type III humanized collagen raw materials have successfully completed main document registration [50] Industry Trends - The beauty and personal care industry is experiencing intensified competition, with domestic brands facing pressure from foreign brands [10] - The retail sales of cosmetics in November 2024 were 43.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%, with cumulative retail sales from January to November down 1.3% [34][51] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product capabilities and high consumer recognition, particularly in the context of the new channels provided by WeChat Shop [19]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic power semiconductor manufacturer, advancing in both medium and low-voltage MOSFETs and high-voltage IGBTs. It has four main product platforms, with SGT MOS, Trench MOS, IGBT, and SJ MOS contributing to revenue in the first half of 2024 [4][6] - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery in industry demand, with expected revenue growth rates of 25.91%, 24.48%, and 22.81% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6] - The company has established a strong supply chain with upstream wafer foundries and downstream packaging and testing capabilities, creating a robust competitive advantage [5][6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 2013, specializes in the research, design, and sales of MOSFETs and IGBTs, with a comprehensive product range covering voltages from 12V to 1700V [29] - It has a significant market share in the domestic MOSFET market, which is the largest globally, and is actively expanding into emerging applications such as AI and electric vehicles [4][29] Product Platforms - The company has four main product platforms: SGT MOS, Trench MOS, IGBT, and SJ MOS, with SGT MOS being the fastest-growing and most profitable [39] - The revenue contribution from SGT MOS is expected to be 41.44% in the first half of 2024, while Trench MOS, IGBT, and SJ MOS contribute 29.30%, 16.20%, and 11.78% respectively [39] Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 18.59 billion, 23.14 billion, and 28.42 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with net profits of 4.60 billion, 5.81 billion, and 7.32 billion yuan respectively [6][7] - The gross margin is expected to improve, with a projected gross margin of 35.87% in 2024 [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is deeply integrated with upstream wafer foundries and has established a virtual IDM model, enhancing its competitive moat [5][6] - It is focusing on expanding its presence in high-growth sectors such as renewable energy, AI servers, and electric vehicles, which are expected to drive future growth [45]

Group 1 - The report highlights the continuous growth potential of the domestic aluminum industry, emphasizing the advantages of Guinea's bauxite resources and the stable production levels in Australia and China [9][51]. - In 2023, global aluminum production reached 70.593 million tons, with China accounting for nearly 60% of this output, indicating a strong self-sufficiency in aluminum production [51]. - The report notes that the price of silicon materials has slightly increased due to adjustments in production expectations, leading to a potential supply-demand balance in December [12]. Group 2 - The report discusses the recent acceleration in offshore wind project construction in several provinces, indicating a significant increase in project reserves and a positive outlook for the wind power sector [14]. - The average bidding price for onshore wind turbine units has stabilized, suggesting a recovery in profit margins for turbine manufacturers as market demand remains strong [31]. - The report identifies key players in the photovoltaic sector, with companies like Yamaton and Zhengtai Electric showing strong performance, while others like Aisheng and Meichang experienced declines [30][57].

行 业 研 究 商 贸 零 售 行 业 简 评 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 任晓帆 S0630522070001 rxf@longone.com.cn 联系人 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈涛 cht@longone.com.cn 申万行业指数:商贸零售(0745) 沪深300 [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle] 11月社零延续弱复苏，品类同比分化 ——11月社零报告专题 ➢ 2024年11月社零同比增长3.0%。2024年11月社会消费品零售总额43763亿元，同比增长 3.0%，低于wind一致预期（+4.6%），主要受"双十一"网购启动时间提前的影响，部分 商品销售分流至10月份。1）在农村居民收入较快增长、县域商业体系建设不断推进下， 乡村市场销售增速持续快于城镇。城镇：11月消费品零售额37596亿元，同比增长2.9%， 增速较上月环比下降1.8个百分点。乡村：11月消费品零售额6167亿元，同比增速为3.2%， 增速较上月下降1.7个百分点。2）分渠道来看，线上消费增速快于线下消 ...