证券研究报告| 公司动态点评 2025 年 04 月 18 日 芭田股份（002170.SZ） 2024 年公司盈利大幅改善，小高寨磷矿投产助推业绩增长 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 3,244 | 3,313 | 4,530 | 5,397 | 5,845 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 13.6 | 2.1 | 36.7 | 19.1 | 8.3 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 259 | 409 | 1,016 | 1,292 | 1,408 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 114.1 | 57.7 | 148.4 | 27.2 | 9.0 | | ROE（%） | 10.7 | 12.7 | 25.6 | 25.1 | 21.9 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.27 | 0.42 | 1.05 | 1.34 | 1.46 | | P/E（倍） | 36.6 | 23.2 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 6.7 | | P/ ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 04 月 18 日 恒力石化（600346.SH） 原料价格下行助力降本增效，全产业链协同发展-恒力石化 2024 年 报点评 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 234,791 | 236,273 | 247,142 | 258,182 | 268,688 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 5.6 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.1 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6,905 | 7,044 | 8,460 | 10,753 | 12,008 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 197.8 | 2.0 | 20.1 | 27.1 | 11.7 | | ROE（%） | 11.5 | 11.1 | 12.3 | 14.2 | 14.1 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.98 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.53 | 1.71 | | P/E（倍） | 15.5 | 15.2 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company's conventional power sources show stable profitability, with ongoing project reserves providing growth potential. The financial performance for 2024 indicates a slight revenue decline of 1% year-on-year, but a significant net profit increase of 75.3% year-on-year, driven by substantial investment gains [1][9]. - The company is well-positioned with a rich pipeline of projects across various power sources, ensuring continued performance growth. The total installed capacity is 111.7 million kW, with conventional power (coal and gas) accounting for 66.8% [4][9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The company expects revenues of CNY 179.18 billion in 2024, with a projected net profit of CNY 9.83 billion. The EPS is forecasted to be CNY 0.55, reflecting a 75.5% increase year-on-year [1][9]. - **Growth Rates**: Revenue is projected to grow at rates of 5.1%, 3.8%, and 2.3% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, while net profit is expected to decline by 23.9% in 2025 before recovering with growth rates of 16.4% and 15.2% in the following years [1][9]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: The report highlights a return on equity (ROE) of 12.7% for 2024, with a projected P/E ratio of 8.5 for the same year, indicating a favorable valuation [1][9]. Operational Data - **Power Generation**: In 2024, the company’s coal, gas, and hydropower generation is expected to be 366.17 billion kWh, 2.35 billion kWh, and 59.468 billion kWh respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.3%, +22.49%, and +7.93% [2][3]. - **Investment Gains**: The company reported investment income of CNY 7.33 billion in 2024, a remarkable increase of 363% year-on-year, primarily from the sale of a 50% stake in a subsidiary [1][9]. Project Pipeline - The company has a robust project pipeline with ongoing and approved projects, including 7.64 million kW of coal and 4.9235 million kW of hydropower under construction, which will contribute to future earnings growth [4][9].

Labor Supply Elasticity - China's overall labor supply elasticity is estimated at 0.06, while urban labor supply elasticity is 0.2, both lower than several OECD countries (Canada 0.38, Netherlands 0.25, USA 0.28) [2] - The low labor supply elasticity indicates that tax cuts may not effectively stimulate consumption, suggesting a need to increase residents' property income to address the "high labor supply - low consumption tendency" [2] Labor Characteristics - The average weekly working hours for urban employees in China exceed 44 hours, which is above the legal limit of 40 hours per week [37] - The high labor supply characteristic aligns with a low marginal propensity to consume, indicating a preference for labor over leisure among residents [38] Economic Implications - The low elasticity of labor supply complicates macroeconomic adjustments, as it limits the effectiveness of government tax cuts aimed at stimulating the economy [38] - The government’s ability to manage economic downturns is hindered by the low labor supply elasticity, which restricts options for wage adjustments during economic crises [38]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 04 月 14 日 风电周报（2025.4.7-2025.4.13） 25Q1 国内整机商中标超 38GW，首个海陆一体海风柔直工程开工 | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2024E | 2025E | 2024E | 2025E | | 002531.SZ | 天顺风能 | 增持 | 0.11-0.14 | 0.75 | 21.01 | 9.31 | | 300129.SZ | 泰胜风能 | 增持 | 0.5 | 0.71 | 12.92 | 9.1 | | 300443.SZ | 金雷股份 | 增持 | 0.54 | 1.16 | 34.78 | 16.19 | | 600875.SH | 东方电气 | 买入 | 1.23 | 1.54 | 12.42 | 9.92 | | 603062.SH | 麦加芯彩 | 买入 | 1.95 | 2.5 | 25.24 | 20.86 | | 603218.SH | ...

证券研究报告 | 基金研究*周报 2025 年 04 月 14 日 基金研究 国内主要股指全线下跌，资金大幅流入托市 上周国内主要股票指数全线下跌，其中沪深 300、上证 50 和上证指数等大盘 指数涨跌幅分别为-2.87%、-1.60%和-3.11%。中证 500、中证 1000 和创业板 指等中小盘指数涨跌幅分别为-4.52%、-5.50%和-6.73%。风格指数全线下跌， 其中金融风格、周期风格、消费风格、成长风格和稳定风格指数涨跌幅分别 为-3.83%、-5.16%、-2.49%、-5.40%和-1.66%。成长风格下，大盘成长、中 盘成长和小盘成长风格指数涨跌幅分别为-3.52%、-3.84%和 1.14%。 综合 ETF 基金中，上周交易额为 2270.54 亿元，比前周增加 1797.83 亿元。 其中，中大盘风格综合 ETF 交易额为 1372.73 亿元，增加 1132.64 亿元；中 小盘综合 ETF 交易额为 906.99 亿元，增加 670.45 亿元。 截止上周，32 只主题 ETF 的平均周涨跌幅为-3.57%。其中大盘风格 ETF 平均 周涨跌幅为-3.43%，中小盘风格 ETF ...

证券研究报告 | 行业动态点评 2025 年 04 月 14 日 电子 美国电子产品关税豁免，贸易战缓和信号？ | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2024E | 2025E | 2024E | 2025E | | 002475.SZ | 立讯精密 | 买入 | 1.9 | 2.38 | 16.94 | 13.52 | | 300782.SZ | 卓胜微 | 增持 | 0.83 | 1.59 | 102.92 | 53.72 | | 301308.SZ | 江波龙 | 增持 | 1.2 | 2.37 | 66.37 | 33.6 | | 688300.SH | 联瑞新材 | 增持 | 1.35 | 1.8 | 41.61 | 31.21 | 资料来源：长城证券产业金融研究院，注：卓胜微、江波龙、联瑞新材 2024 年 EPS为实际值。 事件：据美国海关与边境保护局公告，特朗普政府于 4 月 12 日宣布将智能手 机、电脑等 20 类电子产品排除在互惠关税 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 04 月 09 日 鸿日达（301285.SZ） 全年净利润水平承压，积极拓展 3D 打印及半导体散热片新业务 | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 594 | 721 | 862 | 1,218 | 1,695 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -3.9 | 21.3 | 19.7 | 41.3 | 39.1 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 49 | 31 | -7 | 126 | 173 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -21.4 | -37.0 | -124.1 | 1792.6 | 37.0 | | ROE（%） | 4.9 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 11.1 | 13.2 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.24 | 0.15 | -0.04 | 0.61 | 0.84 | | P/E（倍） | 107.4 | 170.4 | -707.2 | 41.8 | 30.5 | | P/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][21]. Core Views - The company is expected to see improved profitability in 2024, with a projected revenue of 61.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.89%, while net profit is expected to rise by 17.93% to 5.33 billion yuan [1][2]. - The company has successfully optimized cost control, leading to an overall improvement in profitability, with a gross margin of 17.50%, up 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company benefits from a strong position in the phosphate fertilizer market, supported by domestic policies aimed at stabilizing prices amid global uncertainties [3][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - 2023 revenue was 69.06 billion yuan, projected to decrease to 61.54 billion yuan in 2024, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [1]. - Net profit for 2024 is projected at 5.33 billion yuan, a 17.93% increase from 2023 [1][11]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 25.0% in 2023 to 24.6% in 2024 [1]. - Cash Flow and Expenses: - Operating cash flow is expected to increase by 13.93% to 10.75 billion yuan in 2024, driven by higher net profit [2]. - Financial expenses are projected to decrease by 30.52%, while management expenses are expected to rise by 12.38% [2]. - Dividend Policy: - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a cash dividend of 14 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, amounting to 2.55 billion yuan, which is 47.86% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3]. Industry Context - The phosphate fertilizer industry is experiencing a favorable environment due to policy support and a reduction in the number of less competitive firms, leading to increased market concentration [3][8]. - The company’s phosphate production capacity is significant, with a total phosphate rock reserve of nearly 800 million tons and a production capacity of 14.5 million tons per year [9][10]. - The company’s main products, including ammonium phosphate and compound fertilizers, have shown production and sales growth, contributing positively to overall performance [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be under pressure due to declining prices of its main products, spandex and adipic acid, influenced by market supply-demand imbalances. However, the industry is anticipated to gradually recover as concentration increases and downstream differentiated applications expand [2][4]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, including a 150,000-ton spandex expansion project and a 1.1 million-ton integrated natural gas base, which are expected to contribute positively to future revenues [4][10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 26,931 million yuan in 2024, a 2.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2,220 million yuan, reflecting a 10.4% decline [1][11]. - **Cash Flow**: The net cash flow from operating activities is expected to rise to 3,025 million yuan in 2024, a 22.53% increase year-on-year, while cash flow from investing activities is projected to decline significantly due to increased structural deposit purchases [3]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: The report highlights a decrease in gross profit margin to 13.83% in 2024, down 1.52 percentage points from the previous year, alongside an increase in financial and sales expenses [2][12]. Industry Insights - The spandex market is facing short-term challenges due to price declines, with the average price of domestic spandex 40D expected to drop by approximately 17.11% in 2024 [4]. - The adipic acid market is characterized by intense competition and price fluctuations, with a projected increase in domestic production capacity by 9.63% in 2024, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [9]. - The report notes that the polyurethane raw material market has significant growth potential, particularly in the footwear sector, where the application ratio is currently below that of developed countries [10].