证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-07-01 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《海外宏观周报：关税扰动下，联储降 息仍需等待》 - 2025.06.24 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：降息预期升温，美股表现积极 ⚫ 核心观点： 本周五，美国将公布 6 月非农就业报告，鉴于近期多项相关数据 如申领失业金人数、经济评议会劳动力市场调查等均显示就业市场明 显有所走弱，这份非农报告或将体现就业市场继续放缓，这将压制未 来服务通胀，并为美联储进一步降息打开空间。从上周美联储理事鲍 曼鸽派发言后的市场表现来看，美股对降息预期升温的反应相当积 极，如果非农就业数据延续近期温和走弱的态势，短期内有望进一步 提振股市表现。 美国国债长端利率的调整可能已基本到位。目前，期限溢价处于 历史高位。其次，30 年期国债与 30 年期隔夜指数掉期（OIS）利差显 示，美国财政状况也已被投资者充分定价。上周末，"大而美 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-07-01 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 《6 月经济景气度延续平稳，关注价格 改善的前瞻性信号》 - 2025.06.20 宏观研究 偏乐观看待工业企业利润的后续走势 投资要点 通过 5 月工业企业利润来看，尽管 5 月我国出口增速保持较高韧 性，促消费政策效果持续显现，但在外部环境不确定性仍大的背景下， 短期市场微观主体采取谨慎策略，以订单驱动生产，短期生产、投资 和消费或趋于收缩，PPI 同比增速变化走弱，进而拖累工业企业利润。 因 PPI 增速持续走弱、工业企业利润增速转负，亦会对就业景气度产 生冲击，如领取失业金人数、居民就业预期和居民收入预期均呈现走 弱迹象，这会制约了消费内生修复动能的修复，这也解释了当前消费 主要是促消费政策拉动。与此同时，消费回暖并未传导至生产端，或 是生产结构调整的影响，未来生产性服务业或将成为新的增长驱动 力。 基于此，在 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5][12]. Core Insights - The company, Hu Shang A Yi, is positioned as a leading tea beverage brand in Northern China, focusing on high-cost performance and health-oriented products. It has rapidly expanded its presence across the country since its establishment in 2013 [5][6]. - As of the end of 2024, Hu Shang A Yi operates a total of 9,176 stores nationwide, with a balanced distribution between Northern and Southern markets [7][8]. - The company has adopted a multi-brand strategy, with three main brands: Hu Shang A Yi, Hu Ka, and Cha Pu Bu, catering to different market segments and price points [8][11]. Company Overview - Hu Shang A Yi has a significant presence in lower-tier cities, with approximately 50.4% of its stores located in third-tier cities and below, while only 7.5% are in first-tier cities [7]. - The company has shown resilience in the face of industry challenges, maintaining a daily average GMV of around 4,000 RMB per store, although it experienced a slight decline due to recent market disruptions [8][9]. Industry Analysis - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size projected to reach 1,163.4 billion RMB by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 17.6% from 2023 to 2028 [9][10]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with no clear leader in the mass tea beverage segment yet, indicating potential for market share shifts among existing players [10]. - The industry is transitioning into a phase of intense competition, likened to a "Warring States" period, where identifying and investing in potential leading companies is crucial [10][11]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 28%, 19%, and 15% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 46%, 33%, and 17% during the same period [12][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 4.57 RMB in 2025 to 7.09 RMB in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 25x to 16x [12][14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][41]. Core Views - The agricultural sector has shown a weak performance compared to the market, with the agricultural index rising only 0.80%, ranking 25th among 31 sectors [5][12][13]. - The pig price has rebounded slightly after a decline, with the average price at 14.35 CNY/kg as of June 29, 2025, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.42 CNY/kg [6][16]. - The white feather chicken market is facing challenges with both chick and meat prices declining, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector's index increased by 0.80%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300, which rose by 1.95% and 0.91% respectively [12][13]. 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs: Weak Price Fluctuations - The average pig price has stopped declining and is now at 14.35 CNY/kg, while the average price for 15kg piglets is 460 CNY/head, showing a slight decrease [6][16]. - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.14 kg, down 0.14 kg from the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.71% [6][16]. - The supply of pigs is expected to remain stable, with a controlled growth rate in supply for 2025, leading to narrow price fluctuations [19][20]. 2.2 White Feather Chicken: Supply Strong, Demand Weak - As of June 27, 2025, the price of white feather chicken chicks is 1.90 CNY/chick, unchanged from the previous week, while the price of meat chickens is 3.40 CNY/kg, down 2.30% [30]. - The industry is currently facing significant losses due to a strong supply and weak demand, with concerns about the impact of imported breeds due to avian influenza outbreaks [30]. 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have shown a slight increase, with white sugar priced at 6090 CNY/ton, up 55 CNY/ton [34]. - Soybean prices have also risen, with the imported price at 3739 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.9% increase [34]. - Corn prices have continued to rise, averaging 2392 CNY/ton, up 11 CNY/ton [34].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing accelerated consolidation, with leading retail pharmacies expected to rebound first. The number of closed pharmacies in 2024 reached a total of 39,228, indicating a significant industry cleanup. This is expected to enhance customer traffic and profit margins for leading pharmacies [4][5] - The implementation of outpatient coordination is anticipated to bring performance growth, as leading retail pharmacies can attract more customers and increase average transaction values through enhanced insurance coverage and related product consumption [5] - Leading retail pharmacies are actively exploring diversified operations to enhance market competitiveness, with innovative store formats and service models being developed to attract more customers [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing price of the industry is 4975.11, with a 52-week high of 5679.6 and a low of 4139.32 [1] Industry Performance - The relative performance of the pharmaceutical commercial sector shows a gradual improvement, with a 21% increase noted by June 2025 compared to earlier months [3] Recommendations and Beneficiaries - Recommended stocks include Yifeng Pharmacy and Daclin, while beneficiaries include Laobaixing, Yixintang, and Jianzhijia [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company, founded in 2009, is a leading brand in promoting traditional Chinese gold craftsmanship and aims to reshape the gold jewelry market in China. It maintains a high-end positioning focused on "traditional gold" [6][10]. - The company has successfully expanded its store network, opening its first overseas store in Singapore and a new store in Shanghai in June 2025. By the end of 2024, it had 36 stores across 15 cities, all located in high-end commercial centers [5][6]. - Same-store sales have been strong due to rising gold prices, brand recognition, and continuous product innovation. The company offers competitive pricing compared to traditional high-end jewelry brands [7]. - The outlook for gold prices remains positive, with expectations of continued upward movement, potentially exceeding $3,500 per ounce [7]. - The company is leveraging Chinese cultural elements in its product designs, with nearly 2,000 original designs and numerous patents, aiming to establish itself as a global luxury brand [9][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: HKD 1,008.00 - Total market capitalization: HKD 1,740.58 billion - Debt-to-asset ratio: 38.13% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 95.20 [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth forecast for 2025-2027: 128%, 39%, 12% - Net profit growth forecast for 2025-2027: 172%, 48%, 19% - Earnings per share (EPS) projections: HKD 23, HKD 34, HKD 41 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10][12].

股票投资评级 买入 |维持 个股表现 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 -11% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 24% 29% 34% 盈康生命 医药生物 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 证券研究报告：医药生物 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-07-01 | 最新收盘价（元） | 9.50 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）7.49 | / 6.41 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）71 | / 61 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 10.99 / 7.07 | | 资产负债率(%) | 29.9% | | 市盈率 | 52.78 | | 第一大股东 | 青岛盈康医疗投资有限 | | 公司 | | 研究所 分析师:盛丽华 SAC 登记编号:S1340525060001 Email:shenglihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:龙永茂 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110002 Email:longyongmao@cnpsec.com 盈康生命(300143) 长沙珂信肿瘤医院 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing growth driven by the automotive sector, particularly in the area of autonomous driving, which enhances the value of its products. The collaboration with international leading clients in the automotive industry is deepening, and the company is well-positioned to benefit from the rapid development of new energy vehicles [4] - The company's revenue from computing power is expected to continue increasing, with significant production capabilities established for HDI products, which are essential for AI servers. The company has secured substantial orders from both domestic and international clients [5] - The company is strategically expanding into AI-related businesses, focusing on humanoid robots, low-altitude flying vehicles, and AI smart glasses, which opens up new growth opportunities [6] Financial Projections - The projected revenues for the company are 61.0 billion, 80.1 billion, and 95.1 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 9.0 billion, 11.5 billion, and 14.0 billion yuan for the same years [7] - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow at rates of 21.54%, 31.29%, and 18.64% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.94 yuan in 2024 to 1.94 yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [9]

Investment Rating - The report rates the mental health services industry as "Strongly Outperforming the Market" and maintains this rating [1]. Core Insights - The mental health services industry is entering an innovative development phase, driven by increased awareness and policy support, with a projected market size of 10.41 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 27% from 2020 to 2025 [3][40]. - The demand for mental health services is rising due to factors such as increased societal competition, relationship issues, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has led to a significant rise in anxiety and depression rates globally [17][20]. - The supply side faces a severe shortage of professional mental health resources, with only 54 psychiatric beds per 100,000 people in China, compared to 12.7 in the U.S. and 11.9 in Japan, indicating a long-term imbalance between supply and demand [48]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The mental health services industry is defined as utilizing principles and methods to address psychological and behavioral issues, categorized into psychotherapy, psychological counseling, and general mental health services [3][9]. - The industry chain includes upstream drug development, midstream mental health institutions, and downstream digital mental health service platforms [10]. 2. Demand Side - The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated global anxiety and depression, with a 28% increase in depression cases and a 26% increase in anxiety cases reported in 2020 [17]. - Social pressures, particularly among youth and low-income groups, have heightened the risk of mental health issues, with significant academic and employment-related stress [23][32]. - The market for mental health services is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected market size of 10.41 billion yuan by 2025, driven by increasing consumer awareness and the expansion of online mental health services [40]. 3. Supply Side - There is a critical shortage of psychiatric resources in China, with only 54 psychiatric beds per 100,000 people, highlighting the need for increased mental health services [48]. - Psychological counseling and general mental health services are gaining recognition as essential supplementary methods to professional diagnosis and treatment [54]. - Various therapeutic methods, including yoga, massage, and digital therapies, are emerging as popular options for mental health support [56][58][64].

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: barra1d **Model Construction Idea**: Focuses on short-term factor performance using daily data **Model Construction Process**: Utilizes historical data to calculate factor exposures and applies industry-neutral adjustments. Stocks are ranked based on factor scores, with the top 10% selected for long positions and the bottom 10% for short positions. Adjustments include equal weighting and monthly rebalancing[19][21][30] **Model Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance in short-term factor analysis[19][21][30] - **Model Name**: barra5d **Model Construction Idea**: Focuses on medium-term factor performance using five-day data **Model Construction Process**: Similar to barra1d, but uses a five-day rolling window for factor calculations. Stocks are ranked and selected based on factor scores, with monthly rebalancing and equal weighting applied[19][21][30] **Model Evaluation**: Exhibits robust medium-term factor performance, outperforming other models in cumulative returns[19][21][30] - **Model Name**: open1d **Model Construction Idea**: Focuses on factor performance using daily open prices **Model Construction Process**: Factors are calculated using daily open price data, with industry-neutral adjustments applied. Stocks are ranked based on factor scores, and the top 10% are selected for long positions, while the bottom 10% are shorted. Monthly rebalancing is implemented[19][21][30] **Model Evaluation**: Performs well in certain market conditions but shows higher volatility compared to other models[19][21][30] - **Model Name**: close1d **Model Construction Idea**: Focuses on factor performance using daily close prices **Model Construction Process**: Factors are calculated using daily close price data, with industry-neutral adjustments applied. Stocks are ranked based on factor scores, and the top 10% are selected for long positions, while the bottom 10% are shorted. Monthly rebalancing is implemented[19][21][30] **Model Evaluation**: Demonstrates weaker performance compared to other models, with significant drawdowns observed[19][21][30] Model Backtesting Results - **barra1d**: Weekly excess return 0.17%, monthly excess return 0.32%, six-month excess return 4.09%, year-to-date excess return 3.93%[32] - **barra5d**: Weekly excess return 0.13%, monthly excess return 0.39%, six-month excess return 7.59%, year-to-date excess return 7.56%[32] - **open1d**: Weekly excess return -0.35%, monthly excess return -0.71%, six-month excess return 5.85%, year-to-date excess return 6.30%[32] - **close1d**: Weekly excess return 0.55%, monthly excess return 0.40%, six-month excess return 6.40%, year-to-date excess return 6.31%[32] - **Multi-factor model**: Weekly excess return -0.38%, monthly excess return -0.04%, six-month excess return 3.56%, year-to-date excess return 2.82%[32] Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Beta **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures historical beta to assess market sensitivity **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated using historical beta values derived from regression analysis of stock returns against market returns[15][16] **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance in high-volatility environments[15][16] - **Factor Name**: Momentum **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures historical excess return trends **Factor Construction Process**: Combines weighted averages of historical excess return volatility, cumulative excess return deviation, and residual return volatility using the formula: $ Momentum = 0.74 * Historical Excess Return Volatility + 0.16 * Cumulative Excess Return Deviation + 0.1 * Residual Return Volatility $[15][16] **Factor Evaluation**: Performs well in trending markets but struggles in reversal scenarios[15][16] - **Factor Name**: Volatility **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures stock price fluctuation intensity **Factor Construction Process**: Combines weighted averages of monthly, quarterly, and annual turnover rates using the formula: $ Volatility = 0.35 * Monthly Turnover Rate + 0.35 * Quarterly Turnover Rate + 0.3 * Annual Turnover Rate $[15][16] **Factor Evaluation**: Strong performance in high-volatility stocks[15][16] - **Factor Name**: Valuation **Factor Construction Idea**: Assesses stock valuation using price-to-book ratio **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the inverse of the price-to-book ratio[15][16] **Factor Evaluation**: Performs well in identifying undervalued stocks[15][16] Factor Backtesting Results - **Beta**: Weekly excess return 0.17%, monthly excess return 0.32%, six-month excess return 4.09%, year-to-date excess return 3.93%[32] - **Momentum**: Weekly excess return -0.38%, monthly excess return -0.04%, six-month excess return 3.56%, year-to-date excess return 2.82%[32] - **Volatility**: Weekly excess return 0.55%, monthly excess return 0.40%, six-month excess return 6.40%, year-to-date excess return 6.31%[32] - **Valuation**: Weekly excess return 0.13%, monthly excess return 0.39%, six-month excess return 7.59%, year-to-date excess return 7.56%[32]