证券研究报告：计算机 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-11-17 股票投资评级 增持|首次覆盖 个股表现 -20% -13% -6% 1% 8% 15% 22% 29% 36% 43% 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 2025-11 恒银科技 计算机 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 | 公司基本情况 | | --- | | 最新收盘价（元） | 12.03 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）5.21 / 5.21 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）63 / 63 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 12.94 / 6.93 | | 资产负债率(%) | 25.1% | | 市盈率 | 150.38 | | 第一大股东 | 恒融投资集团有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:孙业亮 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110002 Email:sunyeliang@cnpsec.com 分析师:刘聪颖 SAC 登记编号:S1340525100001 Email:liucongying@cnpsec.com 恒银科技(603106) 大力调 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [2] Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 2.958 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.05%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 127 million yuan, up 61.17% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has shown a consistent improvement in profits, with a significant increase in net profit growth rates in Q1-Q3 2025, particularly in Q3 where the growth rate reached 340% [6] - The company is focusing on new product launches, including innovations in packaging production lines and humanoid robots, which are expected to drive future growth [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenues of 8.90, 10.11, and 10.57 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 18%, and 32% respectively [6] - The gross profit margin remained stable at 27.71%, while the expense ratio decreased to 20.93% [6] - As of Q3 2025, the company's contract liabilities reached 2.138 billion yuan, indicating a healthy backlog of orders [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.936 billion, 4.501 billion, and 4.782 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.35%, 14.34%, and 6.26% respectively [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 161 million, 262 million, and 305 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 930.80%, 63.40%, and 16.18% respectively [8] - The estimated P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 39.75, 24.33, and 20.94, maintaining the "Add" rating [8]

Quantitative Models and Construction GRU Model - **Model Name**: GRU (Generalized Rotation Unit) Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The GRU model is designed to capture industry rotation trends and optimize stock selection by leveraging short-term and long-term market dynamics[3][4][5] - **Model Construction Process**: - The GRU model is applied across different stock pools (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) to evaluate multi-factor performance - It incorporates multiple sub-models such as `barra1d`, `barra5d`, `open1d`, and `close1d` to assess short-term and long-term factor returns - The model evaluates the long-short performance of stocks by ranking them based on factor scores and constructing portfolios with the top 10% (long) and bottom 10% (short) stocks[3][4][5] - **Model Evaluation**: The GRU model demonstrates strong performance in capturing positive long-short returns, particularly in the `barra5d` and `close1d` sub-models, which show consistent strength across different stock pools[4][5][6] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Style Factors (Barra Factors) - **Factor Names**: Beta, Size, Momentum, Volatility, Non-linear Size, Valuation, Liquidity, Profitability, Growth, Leverage[14][15] - **Factor Construction Ideas**: - These factors are designed to capture specific market characteristics such as risk, size, valuation, and growth potential - They are derived from historical price data, financial metrics, and analyst forecasts - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Beta**: Historical beta - **Size**: Natural logarithm of total market capitalization - **Momentum**: Mean of historical excess return series - **Volatility**: Weighted combination of historical excess return volatility, cumulative excess return deviation, and residual return volatility - **Non-linear Size**: Cubic transformation of size - **Valuation**: Inverse of price-to-book ratio - **Liquidity**: Weighted combination of monthly, quarterly, and annual turnover rates - **Profitability**: Weighted combination of analyst forecasted earnings-to-price ratio, inverse of price-to-cash flow ratio, inverse of trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio, and forecasted growth rates - **Growth**: Weighted combination of earnings growth rate and revenue growth rate - **Leverage**: Weighted combination of market leverage, book leverage, and debt-to-asset ratio[15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Valuation, leverage, and volatility factors showed strong long performance, while beta, momentum, and liquidity factors performed well on the short side during the week[16] Fundamental Factors - **Factor Names**: Static Financial Indicators, Growth Indicators, Surprise Growth Indicators - **Factor Construction Ideas**: These factors are derived from financial statements and are designed to capture company fundamentals such as profitability, growth, and operational efficiency - **Factor Construction Process**: - Financial indicators are calculated using trailing twelve-month (TTM) data - Growth indicators include metrics like revenue growth and earnings growth - Surprise growth indicators measure deviations from analyst expectations[19][20][22] - **Factor Evaluation**: Static financial indicators showed significant negative returns, while growth and surprise growth indicators had mixed performance. Low-growth stocks outperformed across all stock pools[20][22][27] Technical Factors - **Factor Names**: Short-term Momentum, Short-term Volatility, Medium-term Momentum, Medium-term Volatility, Median Absolute Deviation - **Factor Construction Ideas**: These factors are derived from historical price data and are designed to capture price trends and volatility - **Factor Construction Process**: - Momentum factors are calculated as the average excess return over specific time windows (e.g., 20-day, 60-day, 120-day) - Volatility factors are calculated as the standard deviation of returns over specific time windows - Median absolute deviation measures the dispersion of returns around the median[20][24][26] - **Factor Evaluation**: Short-term momentum and volatility factors showed positive returns, while medium-term factors generally underperformed. Low-volatility and low-momentum stocks were favored[20][24][26] --- Model Backtesting Results GRU Model - **Open1d**: Weekly excess return of 1.10%, monthly return of 1.55%, and YTD return of 7.19%[34] - **Close1d**: Weekly excess return of 1.84%, monthly return of 3.56%, and YTD return of 6.24%[34] - **Barra1d**: Weekly excess return of 0.45%, monthly return of -0.26%, and YTD return of 5.19%[34] - **Barra5d**: Weekly excess return of 1.77%, monthly return of 4.51%, and YTD return of 9.23%[34] - **Multi-factor Portfolio**: Weekly excess return of 0.75%, monthly return of 1.16%, and YTD return of 1.65%[34] Style Factors - **Beta**: Weekly return of -5.67%, monthly return of -10.16%, and YTD return of 21.16%[17] - **Momentum**: Weekly return of 4.04%, monthly return of -9.28%, and YTD return of 18.32%[17] - **Liquidity**: Weekly return of -2.91%, monthly return of 6.35%, and YTD return of 11.43%[17] - **Size**: Weekly return of 2.67%, monthly return of 18.45%, and YTD return of 41.09%[17] - **Non-linear Size**: Weekly return of 1.80%, monthly return of -7.67%, and YTD return of 35.55%[17] - **Growth**: Weekly return of 1.59%, monthly return of -2.69%, and YTD return of 2.47%[17] - **Profitability**: Weekly return of 1.13%, monthly return of 0.03%, and YTD return of 15.36%[17] - **Volatility**: Weekly return of 1.35%, monthly return of -1.31%, and YTD return of 4.82%[17] - **Leverage**: Weekly return of 1.36%, monthly return of 3.48%, and YTD return of 15.46%[17] - **Valuation**: Weekly return of 1.45%, monthly return of 4.88%, and YTD return of 2.98%[17] Fundamental Factors - **Net Profit Surprise Growth**: Weekly return of 3.62%, monthly return of -2.63%, and YTD return of 37.43%[23] - **Operating Profit Margin Surprise Growth**: Weekly return of 1.77%, monthly return of 1.65%, and YTD return of 2.46%[23] - **ROA Surprise Growth**: Weekly return of 0.73%, monthly return of 0.19%, and YTD return of 11.22%[23] - **ROA Growth**: Weekly return of -0.70%, monthly return of 0.10%, and YTD return of 25.43%[23] Technical Factors - **20-day Momentum**: Weekly return of 1.88%, monthly return of 5.00%, and YTD return of -5.82%[21][24] - **60-day Momentum**: Weekly return of -10.66%, monthly return of -0.05%, and YTD return of -5.73%[21][24] - **120-day Momentum**: Weekly return of 0.13%, monthly return of 0.13%, and YTD return of -3.53%[21][24] - **20-day Volatility**: Weekly return of 0.08%, monthly return of -0.79%, and YTD return of 11.01%[21][24] - **60-day Volatility**: Weekly return of -0.67%, monthly return of -3.35%, and YTD return of 7.37%[21][24] - **120-day Volatility**: Weekly return of 0.50%, monthly return of -4.08%, and YTD return of 11.22%[21][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.39 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 133 million yuan, up 35.7% year-on-year [4] - The company is focusing on high-value-added products and has several seed businesses expected to gradually enter a harvest phase. It aims to raise up to 818 million yuan through a private placement to invest in agricultural machinery components, garden tools, and micro-chain systems [6] - The company has established a strategic partnership with Shanghai Zhuoyide Robot Co., Ltd. to develop applications in the field of dexterous robotic hands, leveraging its micro-chain products [5] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 22.80%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year. The expense ratio decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 13.85% [5] - The company forecasts revenues of 1.986 billion yuan, 2.251 billion yuan, and 2.524 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.22%, 13.35%, and 12.14% [7][11] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 170 million yuan, 197 million yuan, and 244 million yuan, with growth rates of 30.10%, 15.71%, and 23.55% [7][11] Valuation Metrics - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 32.79, 28.33, and 22.93, respectively [7][11] - The company’s total market capitalization is 5.6 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 82 million shares [3]

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced significant differentiation this week, with major indices showing mixed results. The CSI A50 index rose by 0.26%, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined by 0.18%. In contrast, the ChiNext and STAR Market indices fell by 3.01% and 3.85%, respectively [3][11] - The consumer sector led the market, with significant gains in the comprehensive sector (6.99%), textiles and apparel (4.41%), retail (4.06%), beauty and personal care (3.75%), and pharmaceuticals (3.29%). Conversely, the communication and electronics sectors both dropped by 4.77% [12][30] A-share High-Frequency Data Tracking - The dynamic HMM timing model suggests a current market position leaning towards volatility, recommending a 10.4% allocation [15] - Personal investor sentiment has shown a slight recovery, with the sentiment index moving to 3.34% as of November 15, up from -1.9% on November 8 [20][22] - Financing sentiment fluctuated throughout the week, with financing transactions remaining stable and below 20% for four consecutive trading days [24] Future Market Outlook and Investment Views - The market is expected to continue its volatile pattern, with limited upward potential due to a lack of significant capital inflow and an increase in planned share reductions by listed companies [4][30] - The report suggests maintaining a growth style in investment strategy, focusing on sectors that meet the "turnaround + high growth" criteria, particularly in photovoltaic equipment and commercial industries positioned for growth [30]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the issuance and outlook of Tier 2 and Perpetual bonds (Two - Yong bonds) from 2025 to 2026, analyzing factors such as issuer structure, net financing, and regulatory approvals [2][3][8] 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the overall issuance of Two - Yong bonds may slightly decline, with state - owned large - scale banks and city commercial banks increasing slightly, while joint - stock banks and rural commercial banks decreasing significantly. The net financing has continued to decline [3][9][15] - In 2026, it is estimated that about 1.31 trillion yuan of Two - Yong bonds will be issued. Although the remaining approval quotas are tight, the supply pressure is not significant [3][25] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Review: Significant Changes in Issuer Structure and a Large Decrease in Net Financing 3.1.1 Two - Yong Bonds: Overall Issuance May Slightly Decline, Tier 2 Capital Bond Issuance Decreases, and Perpetual Bond Issuance Increases - The overall issuance in 2025 may slightly decline. Based on the monthly average issuance, the annual issuance may be slightly lower than that of last year. The issuance of 5 - year bonds has been relatively stable compared to last year, while the 10 - year bonds have been significantly slower [9] - By bank type, state - owned large - scale banks and city commercial banks may have a slight increase in issuance, while joint - stock banks and rural commercial banks may see a significant decrease [10] - Tier 2 capital bond issuance has decreased, while perpetual bond issuance has increased. The issuance of Tier 2 capital bonds in 2025 is significantly less than last year, while perpetual bond issuance is at a high level in recent years [12] - The issuance coupon rate has continued to decline. In 2025, the weighted coupon rates of 5 - year Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds of state - owned large - scale banks have dropped to around 2%, and those of joint - stock banks have dropped to around 2.16% [13][14] - The net financing in 2025 is 220 billion yuan, showing a continuous downward trend, mainly due to the high capital adequacy ratios of banks and the reduced urgency for global systemically important banks to supplement capital through Two - Yong bond issuance after meeting the TLAC requirements [15] - The net financing decline of Tier 2 capital bonds is more significant. As of November 11, 2025, the net financing of both Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds is about 110 billion yuan, with Tier 2 capital bonds being the main drag on the overall net financing [18] 3.1.2 TLAC Non - capital Bonds: Nearly 50 Billion Yuan Issued, with a 3 - year Maturity as the Main Tenor - As of November 11, 2025, about 49 billion yuan of TLAC non - capital bonds have been issued, with Bank of China issuing the largest amount at 15 billion yuan, followed by Agricultural Bank of China at 13 billion yuan, and Bank of Communications at 10 billion yuan [20] - The issuance of TLAC non - capital bonds is mainly in 3 - year tenors, totaling 39.4 billion yuan, followed by 6.4 billion yuan in 5 - year tenors and 3.2 billion yuan in 10 - year tenors (only issued by Agricultural Bank of China) [22] 3.2 2026 Outlook: Tight Remaining Approval Quotas but Expected Continued Supply, with an Estimated Issuance of 1.31 Trillion Yuan - ICBC has already met the second - stage TLAC requirements, while BOC and CCB are close to meeting them. ABC still has a gap of about 29 billion yuan, and on average, it needs to supplement about 14.5 billion yuan per year. If the Deposit Insurance Fund is not included, BOC has a TLAC gap of about 33.5 billion yuan [23] - The static upper limit of the TLAC compliance funding gap for the five major banks is 18.55 billion yuan. Considering the redemption of about 1.12 trillion yuan of Two - Yong bonds in 2026, a total of about 1.31 trillion yuan of Two - Yong bonds need to be issued in 2026 [25] - The remaining approval quotas are relatively tight. Since November 2023, regulatory authorities have issued a total of 2.85 trillion yuan in Two - Yong bond quotas, with 0.79 trillion yuan remaining [26] - However, the supply pressure is not significant. In late November 2025 or early 2026, regulatory authorities may issue new large - scale approvals based on actual situations. Banks that obtained approvals at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 are still expected to obtain new approvals in early 2026 [32]

Group 1: Economic Financing Demand - The financing demand in the real economy remains relatively stable, with a focus on observing total financial indicators rather than single credit data fluctuations[1] - In October, the new social financing (社融) scale was 8,150 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5,970 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in credit and government bond issuance[8] - Excluding the impact of government bond issuance timing, the social financing data showed only a minor decrease of 378 billion yuan compared to the previous year[9] Group 2: Household Credit and Confidence - In October, new household credit data turned negative at -3,604 billion yuan, marking the fourth negative turn this year, reflecting a contraction in household balance sheets[12] - The decline in new short-term loans was -2,866 billion yuan, indicating that repayments exceeded new loans, which suggests weakened consumer confidence[12] - The new medium- and long-term loans also decreased by -700 billion yuan, indicating early repayment of mortgages by households[12] Group 3: Savings and Investment Trends - In October, new household deposits decreased by -13,400 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7,700 billion yuan, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 18,500 billion yuan in deposits[13] - The bank wealth management market has grown to 31.6 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 0.36 trillion yuan, indicating a shift towards more stable asset allocations[13] - The new fund-raising scale in October was 910.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 40.14% from the previous month, with bond funds and mixed funds showing significant contributions[13] Group 4: Monetary Supply and Price Index - In October, M1 grew by 6.2% year-on-year, while M2 grew by 8.2%, indicating a divergence in monetary supply growth rates[15] - The negative differential between M1 and M2 growth rates has ended, with a current differential of -2%[15] - If subsequent data does not improve, there may be risks of weakening in the Producer Price Index (PPI) growth rate in the short term[15] Group 5: Future Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The demand for financing in the real economy is expected to remain stable, with a focus on consumption recovery and potential investment opportunities in the bond market[17] - The anticipated peak yield for 10-year government bonds is projected at 1.85%, suggesting a favorable environment for bond investments[17] - Key investment directions include service consumption and emerging sectors such as emotional economy, camping economy, and pet economy[17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, interest - rate bonds fluctuated weakly, while credit bonds showed differentiated trends. High - grade credit bonds also weakened but with smaller declines. Short - duration medium - and low - grade bonds weakened, but the yields of 3 - 5Y bonds were still falling. The trading sentiment in the bond market cooled down. The central bank resumed trading in treasury bonds, but the scale was lower than expected. The strengthening of the equity market in the second half of the week made the bond market weaker. Ultra - long - term credit bonds also weakened, with only the yields of the least liquid ultra - long urban investment bonds showing a reverse recovery [2][10]. - Public funds have shown a significant trend of chasing longer durations for two consecutive weeks, mainly focusing on 3 - 5Y bonds. Other institutions such as wealth management and insurance have relatively stable demand for credit bonds. The behavior of public funds chasing longer durations may continue in the short term, driven by the concentrated opening of amortized cost method funds and the improving performance of credit ETF products [3][29][32]. - The "volatility amplifier" characteristic of Tier 2 capital bonds of banks (Two - Yong bonds) reappeared, with larger declines than general credit bonds and interest - rate bonds of the same duration. There is a small window period for short - term trading of Two - Yong bonds [4][16]. - In terms of strategies, it is still recommended to select bonds from weakly - qualified urban investment bonds with 3 - 5Y durations. It is not advisable to chase ultra - long - term credit bonds for short - term trading, but there is a small window period for short - term trading of Two - Yong bonds [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fund's Two Marginal Changes in Chasing Duration - **Bond Market Performance** - Interest - rate bonds fluctuated weakly last week, and credit bonds showed differentiation. From November 3 to 7, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y treasury bonds increased by 2.2BP, 3.2BP, 3.0BP, 2.7BP, and 2.1BP respectively. The yields of AAA medium - term notes of the same duration increased by 1.2BP, 2.3BP, decreased by 0.5BP, increased by 1.6BP, and 0.2BP respectively. AA + medium - term notes' yields increased by 1.2BP, 0.3BP, decreased by 0.5BP, decreased by 2.4BP, and decreased by 2.8BP respectively [10][11]. - Ultra - long - term credit bonds weakened, with only the yields of the least liquid ultra - long urban investment bonds recovering. The yields of 10Y AAA/AA + medium - term notes increased by 1.01BP and 0.01BP respectively, the yields of 10Y AAA/AA + urban investment bonds increased by 0.86BP and decreased by 0.14BP respectively, the yield of 10Y AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 9.29BP, and the yield of 10Y treasury bonds increased by 5.32BP [10]. - The "volatility amplifier" characteristic of Two - Yong bonds reappeared, with larger declines than general credit bonds and interest - rate bonds of the same duration. The yields of 1 - 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 2.94BP, 5.39BP, 4.35BP, 4.23BP, 4.16BP, 1.30BP, and 0.64BP respectively. The part of the curve above 4Y is still 30BP - 50BP away from the lowest yield point since 2025 [16]. - **Curve Shape** - The steepness of the 1 - 2Y and 2 - 3Y segments of all - grade bonds is the highest, and the steepness of the 3 - 5Y segment of low - grade bonds is also relatively high, but it has been decreasing for two consecutive weeks. For example, for AA + medium - term notes, the slopes of the 1 - 2Y, 2 - 3Y, and 3 - 5Y segments are 0.0909, 0.1109, and 0.0605 respectively; for AA urban investment bonds, the slopes are 0.1231, 0.1236, and 0.0953 respectively [12]. - **Historical Quantiles of Yields and Credit Spreads** - The protection margin of general credit bonds within 5Y is thin, and the cost - effectiveness of credit bonds is currently not high. From November 3 to 7, 2025, the yields of 1Y - AAA, 3Y - AAA, 5Y - AAA, 1Y - AA +, 3Y - AA +, 5Y - AA +, 1Y - AA, and 3Y - AA medium - and short - term notes are at the 12.52%, 24.62%, 23.75%, 8.42%, 18.57%, 17.27%, 5.39%, and 9.50% levels since 2024 respectively. The historical quantiles of credit spreads are at the 2.64%, 0.22%, 2.20%, 1.98%, 0.22%, 2.64%, 0.66%, and 6.40% levels respectively [14]. - **Trading Activity** - For Two - Yong bonds, the buying power was strong in the first half of the week but weakened significantly in the second half. From November 3 to 7, the proportion of transactions below the valuation was 100.00%, 100.00%, 100.00%, 2.50%, and 12.50% respectively; the average trading durations were 6.95 years, 6.67 years, 6.51 years, 0.91 years, and 0.85 years respectively. The trading volume below the valuation was generally low, with only 2 transactions having a margin of more than 4BP, and the rest within 3BP [18]. - For ultra - long - term credit bonds, the selling volume increased in the second half of the week, and the focus of discounted transactions was on weakly - qualified urban investment bonds. From November 3 to 7, the proportion of discounted transactions was 5.00%, 2.50%, 5.00%, 85.00%, and 35.00% respectively. The discount margin was generally within 4BP, and about 15% of the transactions had a margin of more than 4BP, mainly weakly - qualified urban investment bonds [23]. - The trading activity of ultra - long - term credit bonds decreased marginally. From November 3 to 7, the proportion of transactions below the valuation was 32.50%, 52.50%, 57.50%, 10.00%, and 20.00% respectively. About 47% of the transactions below the valuation had a margin of 4BP or more, mainly 2 - 5Y AA(2) and AA weakly - qualified urban investment bonds, whose liquidity has improved recently [25]. - **Institutional Behavior** - Public funds have shown a significant trend of chasing longer durations for two consecutive weeks, mainly focusing on 3 - 5Y bonds. Last week, funds net - bought 181.17 billion yuan of 1 - 3Y credit bonds, 110.48 billion yuan of 3 - 5Y credit bonds, and 31.96 billion yuan of 7 - 10Y credit bonds. Wealth management's buying of credit bonds slowed down, mainly net - buying 25.66 billion yuan of 1 - 3Y credit bonds. Insurance's buying of general credit bonds was relatively stable, net - buying 32.65 billion yuan of 1 - 3Y credit bonds and 26.56 billion yuan of 3 - 5Y credit bonds [3][29]. - The behavior of public funds chasing longer durations may continue in the short term. On one hand, the concentrated opening of amortized cost method funds may support the 3 - 5Y credit bond market. The expected opening scale of these funds in the second half of November and December is 328.62 billion yuan and 1,238.55 billion yuan respectively, and the proportion of funds with a closed - end period of more than three years is 80.96% and 65.68% respectively. On the other hand, the improving performance of credit ETF products, especially the second - batch of science and technology innovation ETFs, may also drive public funds to chase longer durations. The cumulative losses of credit market - making ETFs are decreasing, and most science and technology innovation ETFs have achieved positive cumulative net values. The trading duration of credit ETF products has been lengthening recently, with strong buying of 3 - 5Y and over - 5Y component bonds [32][33].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall retail sales growth continues to slow down, but consumption excluding automobiles is accelerating, with service retail showing steady growth. In October, the retail sales growth rate was 2.9%, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to weak automobile sales, marking the lowest growth rate of the year. However, retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 4.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Service retail sales increased by 5.3% year-on-year from January to October, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 0.9 percentage points [5][11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index level is 2427.56, with a 52-week high of 2501.51 and a low of 1877.67 [1]. Recent Retail Data - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 462.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. From January to October, the total retail sales amounted to 4121.69 billion yuan, growing by 4.3% [4][5]. Online vs Offline Sales - Online retail sales from January to October increased by 9.6%, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.3%, which is 2 percentage points higher than the overall retail sales growth. Offline retail sales for stores above a certain threshold grew by 3.1% [6]. Consumption Trends - Essential goods showed significant improvement, with food-related items like grains and oils growing by 9.1%, beverages by 7.1%, and tobacco and alcohol by 4.1%. In contrast, discretionary spending showed mixed results, with home appliances experiencing a slowdown due to high base effects [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious optimism regarding consumer recovery, indicating that the worst is over. It recommends focusing on both new consumption opportunities in sectors like trendy toys and gold jewelry, as well as cyclical sectors such as liquor and travel, which may benefit from ongoing consumption stimulus policies [13].

Export Performance - In October, China's export growth rate turned negative at -1.1% due to base effects, but the two-year compound growth rate remained resilient at 5.55%[11] - Exports to the US continued to decline, with a growth rate of -25.17%, although the decline was slightly narrowed by a 1.86 percentage point improvement from the previous value[13] - Exports to Japan showed a slight recovery, with a growth rate of -5.71%, attributed to Japan's high inflation and China's relative price advantage[14] Import Performance - In October, China's import growth rate was 1%, a significant drop of 6.4 percentage points from the previous value, and below market expectations of 3.91%[24] - The main contributors to import growth were positive contributions from the EU, Japan, Brazil, and Russia, while imports from the US and ASEAN had negative impacts[26] Inflation Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in October, recovering from negative growth, and was 0.25 percentage points higher than market expectations[28] - The core CPI increased by 1.2%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point rise from the previous value, but remained below the five-year average of 0.94%[30] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI showed a year-on-year decline of -2.1% in October, which was better than the expected -2.3%, indicating a marginal recovery[36] - The divergence between PPI and PMI factory prices suggests a coexistence of policy support and insufficient market confidence[37] Future Outlook - China's export growth is expected to stabilize around 2% in 2026, influenced by strengthened cooperation with the EU and gradual stabilization of trade tensions with the US[27] - CPI is anticipated to continue its mild recovery due to improving consumption structure and supportive policies, while PPI is likely to remain low due to ongoing market challenges[45][46]