Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" investment rating for the defense and military industry [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that artillery remains crucial in modern warfare, as demonstrated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where artillery has proven to be an effective long-range strike method [2][36]. - The global artillery market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3%, increasing from a current market value of $11.4 billion to $17.3 billion by 2034 [2][39]. - The domestic artillery market in China is expected to thrive due to increased military training and export demands, with an estimated market size of approximately 12 billion yuan [3][49]. Summary by Sections 1. Artillery Classification and Composition - Artillery ammunition includes various types such as shells, grenades, and missiles, with artillery being referred to as the "god of war" due to its enduring significance [13]. - Shells are categorized based on caliber, assembly relationship, loading method, and stability method, with various types including small, medium, and large caliber shells [17][21]. 2. The Return of the "God of War" - The Russia-Ukraine war has highlighted the importance of artillery, with significant artillery usage reported, including the U.S. supplying over 1 million rounds to Ukraine [36][37]. - The report indicates that the global artillery market is driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Europe, leading to increased procurement of advanced artillery systems [39][40]. 3. Domestic Related Enterprises - Key players in China's artillery production include the China Ordnance Industry Group and the China Ordnance Equipment Group, with various listed companies involved in ammunition production [50][52]. - The report identifies several companies such as Tianqin Equipment and Beihua Co., which are significant contributors to the artillery and ammunition market in China [3][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [9][15]. Core Insights - The company has a robust order backlog for epitaxial wafers, with a projected revenue of 2.239 billion yuan from semiconductor wafers in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.91% [3]. - The sales volume of 6-inch wafers is expected to reach 15.1278 million pieces in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 53.68%, while 12-inch wafer sales are projected to grow by 121.23% [3]. - The company is leveraging its integrated supply chain advantages in the semiconductor power device sector, with a focus on expanding the sales of trench products and stabilizing the sales of FRD products [4]. - The revenue from compound semiconductor RF chips is expected to reach 295 million yuan in 2024, a significant year-on-year increase of 115.08% [5]. - The company is strategically positioning itself in emerging markets such as low-orbit satellites and AI terminals, enhancing its product offerings and market presence [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.006 billion yuan in 2025, 5.017 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.009 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 30 million yuan, 202.6 million yuan, and 401.83 million yuan respectively [9][11]. - The EBITDA is expected to grow significantly, reaching 1.3457 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.06054 billion yuan in 2027 [11][12]. - The company anticipates a gross margin improvement, with the gross profit margin projected to increase from 8.7% in 2024 to 20.2% in 2027 [14].

| 收盘点位 | | 5662.11 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5662.11 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：有色金属|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 近期研究报告 《宏观预期向好叠加"反内卷"交 易，金属价格普涨》 - 2025.07.21 碳酸锂底部区间明确，供需边际改善 事件：7月24日，碳酸锂期货主力合约价格上涨7.21%，达到7.67 万元/吨，较 6 月底部上涨 31.30%。 国内反内卷政策影响供给预期。供给端，根据我们在年初预测， 2025 年全年供给约 160 万吨 LCE，主要增量来自非洲、北美以及国内 盐湖地区，澳洲企业由于 Mt Morion等矿山减停产，Kathleen Valley 和 Mt Holland 投产，总体看基 ...

Group 1: Stablecoin Market Overview - As of July 2025, the total market capitalization of stablecoins reached $260 billion, with over 98% being dollar-pegged stablecoins like USDT and USDC[2][15] - Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) dominate the market, accounting for approximately 86% of the total stablecoin market[12][15] - The stablecoin market has shown strong growth, with a 22% increase in the first half of 2025 alone[15] Group 2: Impact on U.S. Treasury Bonds - Stablecoins have created new demand for U.S. Treasury securities, particularly short-term bonds, with Tether being the seventh-largest U.S. Treasury buyer globally, holding over $120 billion[3][21] - The "GENIUS Act" mandates that stablecoin issuers maintain a 1:1 reserve with high-quality liquid assets, primarily short-term U.S. Treasury securities[3][17] - The focus on short-term bonds may exacerbate the steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, as stablecoins have minimal impact on long-term bonds[3][37] Group 3: Strengthening the Dollar's Position - Stablecoins have not undermined the dollar's global dominance; instead, they have enhanced its efficiency and usage, particularly in high-inflation countries[4][51] - The regulatory framework in the U.S. and Hong Kong supports the growth of stablecoins, with the latter allowing multi-currency pegging, potentially challenging the dollar's supremacy[5][62] - Stablecoins facilitate cross-border transactions, significantly reducing costs and increasing the speed of transfers compared to traditional banking methods[58] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - The reliance on stablecoins poses risks, including potential loss of control over the dollar's monetary policy and vulnerabilities highlighted by events like the Silicon Valley Bank incident[4][60] - The long-term credit risk of the U.S. dollar remains a concern, as increasing national debt could undermine confidence in stablecoins[5][60] - Regulatory changes and market volatility present ongoing risks to the stability and growth of the stablecoin market[68]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has successfully turned a profit, with a promising clinical pipeline [4][5]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 25.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.13%, while Q1 2025 revenue is expected to be 5.20 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 15.15% [4]. - The core product, Recombinant Factor VIII, achieved sales of 18.9 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 6.18% year-on-year [4]. - The antibody product line saw significant growth, with 2024 revenue reaching 6.2 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 499.80% [4]. - The company is advancing its clinical research, with several products in various stages of development, including SCTB14 and SCTB41 [5]. Financial Summary - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 28.27 billion yuan, 32 billion yuan, and 37.07 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]. - Projected net profits for the same years are 2.23 billion yuan, 3.36 billion yuan, and 5.78 billion yuan [6]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 503.97 million yuan, with a growth rate of 12.50% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.25 yuan in 2024 to 1.30 yuan by 2027 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][12]. Core Insights - The company has successfully completed the Phase III clinical trial for its IL-17A/F monoclonal antibody, LZM012, demonstrating superior efficacy compared to the control group, Secukinumab, in treating moderate to severe plaque psoriasis [3][4]. - LZM012 achieved a PASI 100 response rate of 49.5% at week 12, compared to 40.2% for Secukinumab, indicating a significant therapeutic advantage [4]. - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing market for biologics in psoriasis treatment, with an estimated 6-7 million patients in China and increasing penetration of targeted biologic therapies [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.372 billion, 2.683 billion, and 3.046 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.74, 14.79, and 13.03 [6][9]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 11.812 billion yuan in 2024 to 14.695 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.6% [9][10]. - The EBITDA is forecasted to increase from 3.373 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.429 billion yuan in 2027, indicating strong operational performance [9][10].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector has faced challenges due to the implementation of the "Regulations on Strict Economy and Opposition to Waste" by the central government, leading to a decline in revenue and profits for most liquor companies in Q2 2025. However, recent media corrections have stabilized the sector, and a gradual recovery is expected [3][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of individual stock opportunities within the consumer goods sector, particularly in the context of the liquor market's recovery and the introduction of innovative products [4][21] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the food and beverage sector is 17226.07, with a 52-week high of 19809.29 [1] - The sector has shown a relative performance decline compared to the CSI 300 index, with a year-on-year retail sales growth of 4.8% in June 2025 [14] Liquor Sector Analysis - The report notes that major liquor companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao have varying price-to-earnings ratios, indicating a mixed valuation landscape [20] - The introduction of new products, such as the "Jiu Gui Free Love" by Jiu Gui Jiu and its collaboration with the retail channel "Pang Dong Lai," is expected to drive sales and innovate marketing strategies [5][18] Fund Holdings and Market Sentiment - As of Q2 2025, the food and beverage sector's fund holding ratio is 6.75%, reflecting a decrease of 2.12 percentage points, indicating cautious sentiment among investors [4][20] - The liquor segment's fund holding ratio is 4.98%, also down by 2.42 percentage points, suggesting a trend of risk aversion in the market [20] Company Performance Highlights - Dongpeng Beverage reported stable revenue growth, with significant increases in electrolyte water and fruit tea segments [22] - The report mentions that companies like Youfei Foods and Guoquan are focusing on channel optimization and product innovation to drive growth [23] - The performance of companies such as Zhou Hei Ya and Jiahe Foods is noted, with both showing signs of recovery despite facing challenges [23] Market Trends and Price Movements - The food and beverage sector index increased by 0.68% in the latest week, ranking 13th among 30 sectors, while the dynamic PE ratio stands at 21.26 [24] - The report highlights that soft drinks and dairy products have shown the highest growth rates among sub-sectors [24]

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market showed a strong performance with a divergence in maturities, while credit bonds entered a bull market independent of interest rate bonds[2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1.4 trillion yuan, indicating a supportive liquidity stance, leading to a significant decline in short-term yields[2] - The first batch of 10 Sci-Tech Innovation ETFs raised a total of 30 billion yuan on their launch day, reflecting strong market interest[19] Group 2: Credit Bond Performance - Credit bonds experienced an independent bull market, with all major varieties rising more than interest rate bonds[2] - The yield on 30-year government bonds increased by 1.44 basis points, while AAA and AA+ medium-term notes saw yield declines of 2.8 to 3.6 basis points across various maturities[15] - As of July 18, 68% of credit bonds had yields below 2%, indicating a low yield environment[4] Group 3: ETF Impact - The popularity of the Sci-Tech ETFs is comparable to that of market-making credit ETFs, becoming a major driver of the credit bond market[19] - The total scale of Sci-Tech ETFs reached 88.3 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 59.3 billion yuan, and a turnover rate of 6.5% for component bonds[19] - The composition of the first batch of Sci-Tech ETFs is primarily high-rated bonds, with significant representation from transportation, public utilities, and construction sectors[22] Group 4: Investment Strategy and Risks - Current low credit yields and the "fragile" nature of rising credit prices suggest caution in pursuing further investments[4] - Fund managers are shifting from long-term to more liquid bonds, indicating a defensive strategy amid market volatility[4] - Risks include unexpected financing policy changes and potential credit events, which could impact market stability[60]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that stablecoins are digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies or physical assets, enhancing transaction efficiency through blockchain technology. They are not independent currencies and share similarities with historical promissory notes [4][6][18] - The report suggests that stablecoins may strengthen dollar assets in the short term, but investing in stablecoins within mainland China is illegal. It recommends participating in stablecoin investments through legal channels in Hong Kong [6][57] Summary by Sections 1. Financial Definition of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are defined as special cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a constant value, typically pegged to the US dollar, supported by physical assets [13] - The International Bank for Settlements outlines that stablecoins have not met the requirements to become a pillar of the monetary system [14] 2. Investment Recommendations - The report advises that stablecoins should be viewed as tokens executing specific transaction functions on the blockchain, rather than as currencies. It highlights the potential for stablecoins to enhance dollar asset strength [6][57] 3. Comparison with Other Payment Systems - Stablecoins differ from traditional payment systems like Alipay and WeChat Pay, as they operate on a decentralized model, allowing for direct peer-to-peer transactions without intermediaries [26][30] - The report compares stablecoins with SWIFT and multilateral digital currency bridges, noting that stablecoins can facilitate faster and cheaper cross-border transactions [39][40] 4. Regulatory Environment - The report discusses the regulatory landscape for stablecoins, indicating that while they are banned in mainland China, they operate under a regulatory framework in Hong Kong [15][21] 5. Market Performance - The report notes that the total market capitalization of stablecoins has doubled to approximately $255 billion, with over 170 types of stablecoins available globally [25]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report discusses the deep impact of stablecoins on the financial system, including effects on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, commercial banks, and financial infrastructure [4][6] - It highlights the potential for stablecoins to disrupt traditional banking and payment systems while also presenting new opportunities for financial IT service providers and blockchain companies [6] Summary by Sections 1. Impact of Stablecoins on the Financial System - Stablecoins act as a stable digital representation of value, potentially influencing monetary control systems without directly affecting them [13] - The Federal Reserve may face indirect impacts on its balance sheet due to changes in demand for government bonds and bank deposits caused by stablecoin transactions [14] - Stablecoins can challenge existing monetary policy tools by increasing liquidity fluctuations and affecting short-term interest rates [22][23] 2. Comparison of Stablecoin Development in China and the U.S. - The report contrasts the motivations behind stablecoin development in the U.S. and China, emphasizing the need for regulatory frameworks to adapt to the evolving landscape [10] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while stablecoin trading is illegal in mainland China, there are growth opportunities for financial IT service providers and payment solution companies [6] - It recommends focusing on banks and investment banks that are exploring virtual asset trading and innovative business models [6] 4. Effects on Commercial Banks - Stablecoins may lead to a disintermediation effect, impacting the balance sheets of commercial banks by shifting deposits to custodial accounts [36] - The report notes that banks may need to adjust their liquidity and interest rate risk management strategies in response to the rise of stablecoins [40] 5. Impact on Financial Infrastructure - Stablecoins can enhance payment efficiency by enabling real-time transactions and reducing costs, particularly in cross-border payments [42] - The competition from stablecoins may drive traditional payment systems to adopt distributed ledger technology to improve their services [42]