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建材周专题 2025W30:政治局会议再提反内卷,特种布关注北美云商资本开支加速
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-05 11:05
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need to combat "involution" and promote continuous policy advancement, focusing on optimizing market competition and regulating chaotic enterprise competition [5][21] - North American cloud service capital expenditure is accelerating, leading to sustained high demand for specialty electronic fabrics [6] - Cement prices are experiencing a narrowing decline, while glass inventory continues to decrease [7] - Recommendations include focusing on specialty fiberglass and the African supply chain, with leading companies being the main investment theme for the year [9] Summary by Sections Political and Economic Context - The political bureau meeting on July 30 highlighted the importance of advancing the construction of a unified national market and optimizing market competition [5] - The report analyzes the profitability of various industries, indicating that photovoltaic glass and carbon fiber are at the bottom, while cement and fiberglass are slightly profitable [5] North American Cloud Services - Recent quarterly reports from Microsoft and Meta show that AI is driving revenue and performance growth, with capital expenditures continuing to accelerate [6] - The electronic fabric industry is on a clear upward trend, with domestic leaders rapidly achieving domestic substitution [6] Cement and Glass Market - The domestic cement market is affected by adverse weather conditions, with an average shipment rate of 44.5%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The average national cement price is 344.84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97 yuan/ton month-on-month and 42.74 yuan/ton year-on-year [26] - The glass market is beginning to digest social inventory, with production and sales rates indicating a need for policy changes to influence market dynamics [8][38] Recommendations - Specialty fabrics: Core leader Zhongcai Technology is recommended due to high demand from AI and significant supply barriers [9] - African supply chain: Keda Manufacturing is recommended as a local leader with advantages in production, channels, and brand [9] - The report suggests that the 2025 consumption of building materials is expected to see upward demand and structural optimization [9]
零跑汽车(09863):7月销量突破5万辆,B01正式上市
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-05 04:44
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [7]. Core Views - In July 2025, the company delivered 50,129 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 126.9% and a month-on-month growth of 4.4%. Cumulatively, from January to July, the total sales reached 272,000 vehicles, up 149.8% year-on-year. The company anticipates continued sales growth driven by a strong new car cycle and overseas expansion through collaboration with Stellantis [2][8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company achieved a record high in July with 50,129 vehicle deliveries, marking a 126.9% increase year-on-year and a 4.4% increase month-on-month. The total sales from January to July reached 272,000 vehicles, reflecting a 149.8% year-on-year growth [5][8]. Future Outlook - The company has set a sales target of 500,000 vehicles for 2025, expecting sustained high growth. The launch of the B01 model on July 24, priced from 89,800 yuan, received strong market interest with 10,132 orders within 72 hours. The company plans to introduce 2-3 new products globally each year over the next three years [8]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is expanding its product lineup across different price segments, with models priced between 50,000 to 200,000 yuan. The overseas strategy includes partnerships with Stellantis to leverage their global resources for a more agile market entry. The company aims to enhance profitability through exports and localized production [8]. Distribution Network - As of June 10, 2025, the company operates 942 stores in China, including 303 main stores and 492 experience centers, covering 286 cities. Internationally, it has over 600 sales and service points across more than 24 markets [8].
长城汽车(601633):月销10.4万辆,WEY牌带动总量同比较好增长
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-05 04:44
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Great Wall Motors is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - In July 2025, Great Wall Motors achieved sales of 104,372 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 5.7%. Export sales accounted for 41,088 units, or 39.4% of total sales, while new energy vehicle sales reached 35,000 units, making up 38.2% of total passenger vehicle sales [2][10] - The company is accelerating its global expansion and is committed to transitioning to new energy vehicles. The ongoing new vehicle cycle is expected to drive improvements in both sales and performance. Long-term strategies are set to open up growth opportunities, while the shift towards smart technology is anticipated to enhance profitability across the entire industry chain [2][10] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In July 2025, total sales were 104,372 units, with domestic sales at 63,000 units (up 19.2% YoY, down 10.4% MoM) and new energy sales at 35,000 units (up 43.3% YoY, down 5.0% MoM). Cumulatively, from January to July 2025, total sales reached 674,000 units, a 3.6% increase YoY, with new energy sales at 195,000 units (up 24.6% YoY) [10][11] - By brand, Haval sold 56,221 units (up 6.2% YoY), Tank sold 20,020 units (up 7.2% YoY), WEY sold 10,045 units (up 263.3% YoY), Ora sold 4,300 units (down 10.0% YoY), and Great Wall Pickup sold 13,772 units (up 14.5% YoY) [10][11] Global Expansion and Strategy - Great Wall Motors is implementing its "ONE GWM" strategy to accelerate overseas expansion, covering over 170 countries and regions with more than 1,400 sales channels. The company has established three complete vehicle production bases in Thailand and Brazil, and several KD factories in Ecuador and Pakistan, which are expected to boost sales growth [10][11] - The company is focusing on smart technology, enhancing its capabilities in data, algorithms, and computing power, which are seen as core competitive advantages in the smart vehicle era [10][11] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for Great Wall Motors from 2025 to 2027 are 141.3 billion, 170.7 billion, and 214.8 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding A-share price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 13.1X, 10.9X, and 8.6X, while the Hong Kong stock price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 7.0X, 5.8X, and 4.6X [10][11]
东鹏饮料(605499):2025年半年报点评:渠道扩张、新品放量,冰柜费用阶段性增加
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-05 04:44
丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 东鹏饮料 2025 年上半年实现营业总收入 107.37 亿元(+36.37%);归母净利润 23.75 亿元 (+37.22%),扣非净利润 22.7 亿元(+33.02%)。其中 2025Q2,公司实现营业总收入 58.89 亿元(+34.1%);归母净利润 13.95 亿元(+30.75%),扣非净利润 13.12 亿元(+21.17%)。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 徐爽 冯萱 SAC:S0490517070016 SAC:S0490520030001 SAC:S0490524060001 SFC:BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 公司研究丨点评报告丨东鹏饮料(605499.SH) [Table_Title] 东鹏饮料 2025 年半年报点评:渠道扩张、新品 放量,冰柜费用阶段性增加 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 东鹏饮料(605499.SH) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 东鹏饮料 2025 2] 年半年报点评:渠道扩张、新品 放量,冰柜费用阶段性增 ...
深圳打造“全球低空经济第一城”,关注低空基建方向投资机遇
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-05 01:09
research.95579.com 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 深圳打造"全球低空经济第一城",关注低空基 建方向投资机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 7 月 31 日,深圳市发展改革委对外发布《深圳市低空基础设施高质量建设方案(2024—2026 年)》,着力构建"体系完备、层次清晰、标准统一、智能先进、跨域融合"的低空基础设施体 系,全力打造"全球低空经济第一城"。当前时点,以深圳为代表的我国各地正积极探索低空经 济的落地与发展。伴随着各地试点工作的逐步开展,我们认为在政策推动下,各地有望持续完 善低空空域管理体系,并推进低空经济全产业链发展。建议关注低空经济全产业链,重点关注 航空信息化及空管领域的相关标的。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC:S0490520030004 SAC:S0490525070002 SFC:BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 深圳打造"全球低空经济第一城",关注低空基 2] 建方 ...
计算机行业周报:2025年第31周计算机行业周报:坚定看好AI应用下半年表现-20250805
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-04 23:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the software and services industry [7]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses a strong optimism regarding the performance of AI applications in the second half of the year, driven by supportive government policies and increasing market activity in AI-related sectors [6][27]. - Recent policies from Shanghai and Shenzhen are expected to accelerate the development and application of AI technologies, particularly in infrastructure and low-altitude economy [20][29]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Last week, the computer sector experienced a slight decline of 0.39%, ranking 8th among major industries in the Yangtze River region, with a market share of 9.27% in total trading volume [2][4][16]. Key Recommendations - Focus areas include: 1. AI infrastructure 2. Overseas applications in AI+ fields such as video, coding, and integrated solutions 3. Vertical integration companies in closed-loop scenarios like education, taxation, and healthcare [6][27][42]. Policy Support - Shanghai's recent measures include a 600 million yuan subsidy for computing power and various incentives for AI model development, which are expected to lower operational costs and enhance AI application deployment [20][24]. - Shenzhen's plan aims to establish a comprehensive low-altitude infrastructure by 2026, with projected economic output exceeding 130 billion yuan [32][29]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in: 1. Domestic large model manufacturers 2. AI intelligent entities 3. Domestic computing power supply chains 4. High-quality data-related companies [27][42].
小鹏汽车-W(09868):2025年7月销量点评:月销再创新高,下半年密集新车有望持续抬升销量
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-04 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6]. Core Views - In July 2025, the company delivered 36,717 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 229.4% and a month-on-month increase of 6.1%. Cumulatively, from January to July 2025, the company delivered 234,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 270.3% [2][4][8]. - The company is expected to see steady sales growth due to a strong new car cycle, with the MONA M03 and P7+ models contributing significantly. The company is also benefiting from cost reductions in platforms and technology, as well as an expanding software revenue model and continued growth in international markets [2][8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - July 2025 saw a record monthly delivery of 36,717 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 229.4% and a month-on-month growth of 6.1%. The total deliveries from January to July 2025 reached 234,000 vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 270.3% [2][4][8]. - The cumulative delivery of vehicles has surpassed 800,000 units as of July 2025. The MONA M03 model delivered over 15,000 units in July, maintaining strong sales momentum [8]. New Product Launches - The company is entering a strong new car cycle with the recent launches of the MONA M03 and P7+. The G7 model was launched on July 3, 2025, and has already seen significant pre-orders. Upcoming models, including the new generation P7 and the Kunpeng super electric vehicle, are expected to further enhance sales in the latter half of the year [8]. Financial Outlook - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 99.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a price-to-sales ratio of 1.2X. The software revenue is expected to show significant improvement, contributing to a positive financial outlook as the company enters a new car cycle [8].
鲁泰A(000726):色织龙头,泰然自若
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-04 23:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][10]. Core Viewpoints - Lutai A is a leading player in the color woven fabric industry, with a vertical supply chain from spinning, dyeing, weaving, finishing to garment manufacturing. The company holds over 18% of the global market share for high-end color woven fabrics in 2024 [3][6]. - The company has established production bases in Southeast Asia since 2013, with a production capacity of approximately 280 million meters of fabric and 24 million garments annually by 2024. The company is expected to benefit from the gradual production ramp-up of these bases [6][25]. - The company's price-to-book (PB) ratio is at a historical low, indicating potential for valuation recovery. Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 560 million, 630 million, and 670 million yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times [3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Lutai A has a comprehensive vertical supply chain and is a major supplier for international brands such as Burberry and Uniqlo. The company has a strong presence in both domestic and international markets, with over 60% of its products exported to Southeast Asia, Europe, and Japan [17][24]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 410 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, with a non-recurring net profit expected to rise by 25% to 480 million yuan [6][29]. - Historical performance shows that the company maintained stable growth from 2011 to 2019, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4% in revenue and 1.5% in net profit [28]. Market Position - The demand for color woven fabrics remains stable, with the company maintaining a strong market position despite industry challenges. The color woven fabric sector is characterized by high production costs and technical requirements, which limit competition [7][55]. - The company has a competitive edge due to its established brand reputation and extensive experience in the textile industry [6][17]. Growth Potential - The company is actively expanding its overseas production capabilities, particularly in Southeast Asia, which is expected to enhance its cost advantages and market reach [8][25]. - Continuous investment in research and development positions the company favorably for future growth, with a focus on technological innovation and product development [8][19].
望远镜系列14之AdidasFY2025Q2经营跟踪:关税拖累成本,收入表现及盈利指引低于预期
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-04 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - In FY2025Q2 (April 1, 2025 - June 30, 2025), Adidas reported revenue of €5.95 billion, which was below the expected €6.21 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 8% at constant exchange rates, and a 12% increase when excluding the impact of Yeezy. The net profit attributable to shareholders was €370 million, exceeding the expected €340 million, with a year-on-year increase of 95%. The gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 51.7%, primarily due to better product discounting and reduced shipping costs [2][4] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Adidas achieved revenue of €5.95 billion in FY2025Q2, which was lower than the expected €6.21 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8% at constant exchange rates and 12% when excluding Yeezy [2][4] - The company's net profit was €370 million, surpassing the expected €340 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 95% [2][4] Gross Margin and Costs - The gross margin increased by 0.9 percentage points to 51.7%, attributed to improved product discounting and lower shipping costs [2][4] Market Performance - In FY2025Q2, Adidas' revenue growth in Europe, North America, and Greater China was 7%, 15%, and 11% respectively, with all markets except Europe achieving double-digit growth [10] - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) and wholesale channels grew by 3% and 11% year-on-year respectively, indicating overall positive channel performance [10] Inventory and Cost Impacts - The inventory level was €5.26 billion, up 16% year-on-year, maintaining a healthy status in line with revenue growth [10] - Tariff impacts resulted in a negative effect of several million euros, with an expected increase in sales costs of €200 million in H2 [10] Performance Guidance - The company maintained its full-year guidance, expecting high single-digit revenue growth at constant exchange rates for FY2025, with an operating profit forecast of €1.7 to €1.8 billion, below market expectations of €2 billion [10]
药品产业链周度系列(九):AH溢价视角看港股的结构性机会-20250805
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-04 23:30
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The report highlights that the AH premium rates for A/H listed pharmaceutical companies remain at a high level, with significant premiums observed for various innovative drug companies and CXO firms as of August 1, 2025 [2][6] - The report indicates a trend of narrowing AH premium rates, suggesting that leading companies like Heng Rui Medicine and WuXi AppTec have begun to achieve valuation recovery, with Heng Rui's H shares experiencing a reversal in AH premium [7][28] - The report anticipates that as Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies continue to advance their R&D pipelines and internationalization efforts, the Hong Kong stock market may enter a value reassessment phase, revealing structural investment opportunities [2][28] Summary by Sections AH Premium Rates - As of August 1, 2025, the AH premium rates for several innovative drug companies are as follows: BeiGene at 47.56%, Junshi Biosciences at 70.30%, Innovent Biologics at 83.37%, Fudan-Zhangjiang at 185.15%, and Rongchang Biologics at 17.36% [6][17] - For CXO companies, the AH premium rates are: Zhaoyan New Drug at 52.67%, Tigermed at 36.50%, Kanglong Chemical at 51.60%, and Kelaiying at 20.21% [6][17] Trends in AH Premium Rates - The report notes a significant decrease in AH premium rates since early 2025, with leading companies like Heng Rui Medicine and WuXi AppTec achieving notable valuation adjustments [7][23] - The AH premium rates for these companies have shown a marked decline from earlier levels, indicating a shift in market dynamics [23][28] Investment Perspectives - The report emphasizes that the ongoing "tenglong huan niao" (transformation) in medical insurance will continue to unfold, with innovative drugs being a primary investment focus [30] - It suggests that companies with healthy cash flows, strong innovation capabilities, and established R&D platforms are well-positioned for growth [30] - The report also highlights the importance of breakthrough therapies and technological advancements, particularly in areas such as cytokine immunotherapy and PD1-based therapies [30]