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中控技术(688777):从工业 AI 视角再论中控技术的成长性
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 11:08
[Table_scodeMsg1] 联合研究丨公司深度丨中控技术(688777.SH) [Table_Title] 从工业 AI 视角再论中控技术的成长性 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 一年前我们发布《中控技术深度:不畏浮云,鼎故革新》,对中控技术的成长之路进行系统性复 盘。一年之后再看中控,环境与公司内部均发生变化:于外部环境,不变的是周期压力延续传 导,但 AI+工业融合愈发深入带来更大的成长空间。于公司自身,变化的是转型带来的业务结 构调整,但"技术为底、战略为翼"的驱动内核始终不变。当前公司正站在新阶段起点、向工 业 AI 的新世界迈进。预计公司 2025-2027 年实现归母净利润 9.1 亿元、11.6 亿元、14.6 亿元, 同比-18.4%、+27.0%、+26.2%,建议重点关注。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 赵智勇 曹小敏 SAC:S0490520030004 SAC:S0490517110001 SAC ...
同程旅行(00780)2025Q3 业绩点评:业绩符合预期,利润率持续上行
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 08:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Insights - The current competitive landscape for Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) is stabilizing, with the company focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and deepening its presence in the tourism industry. The company's profitability is on an upward trajectory due to optimized user marketing strategies, refined subsidies, and improved profitability in outbound travel. There remains potential for further increases in sales expense ratios and take rates, which are expected to support continuous growth in profit margins [2][6][9]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. Adjusted net profit reached 1.06 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2%, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase year-on-year [6][9]. - The core OTA business saw steady growth, with revenue of 4.609 billion yuan in Q3, a 14.9% increase year-on-year. The hotel management business also maintained high growth, with revenue from hotel management and other services reaching 0.821 billion yuan, up 34.9% [9]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve overall revenues of 19.32 billion, 21.66 billion, and 24.60 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Adjusted net profits are expected to be 3.37 billion, 3.87 billion, and 4.40 billion yuan for the same years, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14, 13, and 11 times at the current stock price [2][9].
小鹏汽车-W(09868):小鹏汽车2025年11月销量点评:新车交付3.7万辆,同比持续增长,环比有所下滑
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 08:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In November 2025, the company delivered 36,728 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.9% but a month-on-month decrease of 12.6%. Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, the total deliveries reached 392,000 units, up 155.5% year-on-year [2][4]. - The launch of the new X9 extended-range model has led to a rapid increase in deliveries, with November deliveries for the X9 increasing by 161% month-on-month. The model has gained significant popularity, with over 50% of orders coming from northern regions [6]. - The company is expected to deliver between 125,000 and 132,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, which would represent a year-on-year growth of 36.6% to 44.3%. Projected revenue for this period is estimated to be between 21.5 billion and 23 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.5% to 42.8% [6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November 2025, the company delivered 36,728 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 18.9% and a month-on-month decline of 12.6%. Total deliveries from January to November reached 392,000 units, marking a 155.5% increase year-on-year [2][4]. New Product Launches - The new X9 extended-range model has been well-received, with November deliveries increasing by 161% month-on-month. The model set a record for daily orders shortly after its launch, indicating strong market demand [6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a strong sales cycle driven by new product launches and advancements in AI technology. The expected revenue for 2025 is projected at 76.9 billion HKD, with a price-to-sales ratio of 1.9X, supporting the "Buy" rating [6].
宇通客车(600066):11月销量点评:总量同环比提升,维持全年销量目标,期待12月份放量
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 08:14
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨宇通客车(600066.SH) [Table_Title] 宇通客车 11 月销量点评:总量同环比提升,维 持全年销量目标,期待 12 月份放量 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年 11 月客车销量。宇通 11 月销售客车 4058 辆,同比+8.6%,环比+33.5%, 其中大中客车销量 3451 辆,同比+25.8%,环比+40.2%;2025 年 1-11 月共销售客车 4.1 万 辆,同比+6.1%,大中客销量 3.3 万辆,同比+0.7%。全球客车龙头,长期成长性较好+持续高 分红能力,凸显投资价值。国内市场,座位客车持续增长,"以旧换新"政策加码,促进新能源 公交增长;海外市场,全球化+高端化战略推进,出口凸显盈利水平,支撑公司业绩持续提升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC:S0490517060001 SAC:S0490524030004 SFC:BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [ ...
比亚迪(002594):2025年11月销量点评:总销量环比持续增长,出海销量达13万辆超预期
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 08:14
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨比亚迪(002594.SZ) [Table_Title] 比亚迪 2025 年 11 月销量点评:总销量环比持 续增长,出海销量达 13 万辆超预期 报告要点 高伊楠 张扬 SAC:S0490517060001 SAC:S0490524030004 SFC:BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 比亚迪(002594.SZ) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Summary] 11 月销量环比持续增长,出海销量超 13 万辆,创历史新高。公司 11 月整体销量 48.0 万辆, 同比-5.3%,环比+8.7%,乘用车销量 47.5 万辆,同比-5.8%,环比+8.7%。分品牌来看,11 月 海洋王朝销量环比改善,11 月海洋王朝/方程豹/腾势销量分别为 42.4/3.7/1.3 万辆,同比分别- 12.7%/+339.0%/+32.5%,环比分别+7.2%/+20.5%/+30.8%,11 月仰望销量 703 辆,同比大幅 提升 ...
长城汽车(601633):点评:11月销量13.3万辆,新坦克400贡献增量,出口再创新高
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 08:14
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨长城汽车(601633.SH) [Table_Title] 长城汽车点评:11 月销量 13.3 万辆,新坦克 400 贡献增量,出口再创新高 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长城汽车 2025 年 11 月销量 13.3 万辆,同比+4.6%,环比-6.9%,其中出口销量 5.7 万辆,销 量占比达 43.0%,新能源销量 4.0 万辆,新能源乘用车销量占比达 34.2%。公司加速全球化布 局,坚定新能源转型,持续的新车周期有望推动公司销量与业绩改善。长期来看,公司四大拓 展战略打开销量长期增长空间,智能化转型开启全产业链盈利空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC:S0490517060001 SAC:S0490524070004 SFC:BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 长城汽车(601633.SH) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 长城汽车点评:2] 11 ...
美团-W(03690): 2025Q3 业绩点评:中高价订单份额稳固,关注后续补贴趋势
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 08:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan [9] Core Insights - In Q3 FY2025, Meituan's revenue reached 954.9 billion CNY, which was below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 974.7 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2%. The adjusted net loss was 160.1 billion CNY, exceeding the expected loss of 139.6 billion CNY [6][10] - The report highlights that the competitive pressure in the food delivery sector has peaked, and as subsidies narrow, the focus will shift towards user retention and brand recognition, which are crucial for long-term repurchase rather than new customer acquisition [2][10] - The report projects Meituan's overall revenue for 2025-2027 to be 3,640.67 billion CNY, 4,084.78 billion CNY, and 4,551.56 billion CNY, with adjusted net profits of -115.25 billion CNY, 215.34 billion CNY, and 445.67 billion CNY respectively [2][10] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Core local business revenue was 674 billion CNY, below the consensus estimate of 692 billion CNY, with an operating loss of 141 billion CNY compared to the expected loss of 126 billion CNY. The operating profit margin was -20.9% [10] - New business revenue was 280 billion CNY, slightly below the expected 286 billion CNY, with a year-on-year operating loss increase of 24.5% to 13 billion CNY [10] Food Delivery and Flash Purchase - The core local business saw a significant operating loss of approximately 191 billion CNY in Q3, with the average order value (AOV) for high-priced orders (above 15 CNY) accounting for two-thirds of the gross transaction value (GTV) [10] - The report emphasizes that user stickiness and brand recognition are essential for the platform's capabilities, and future competition will likely focus on operational efficiency and service quality [10] In-store Dining and Travel - The in-store dining and travel segment contributed approximately 180 billion CNY in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 12%. The operating profit was 51 billion CNY, with a profit margin of 28% [10] New Business Initiatives - Meituan's new business, Keeta, officially launched operations in Brazil, with expectations of manageable investment levels. The report anticipates that Keeta could contribute significantly to Meituan's GTV in the long term [10]
锂电材料深度:产业望迎来大周期拐点
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 05:30
联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] 锂电材料深度:产业望迎来大周期拐点 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 历经几年锂电下游需求的快速增长,上游材料端有望迎来大周期拐点。我们看好布局磷矿石、 工业级磷酸一铵、磷酸铁和(或)磷酸铁锂的企业云天化、兴发集团、川恒股份、云图控股、 万华化学、龙佰集团;PVDF 行业巨化股份、东岳集团;DMC 行业华鲁恒升;VC、六氟磷酸 锂、LiSFI 行业天赐材料、新宙邦等。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 邬博华 曹海花 SAC:S0490516100002 SAC:S0490514040001 SAC:S0490522030001 SFC:BUT911 SFC:BQK482 叶之楠 王明 王呈 SAC:S0490520090003 SAC:S0490521030001 SAC:S0490525040004 SFC:BVA881 王晓振 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 33 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table ...
零跑汽车(09863):港股研究|公司点评|零跑汽车(09863.HK):零跑汽车点评:11月销量连续超7万辆再创历史新高,零跑Lafa5正式上市
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-03 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6][7]. Core Views - In November, the company delivered 70,327 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 75.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%. This marks a new historical high for the company [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from a strong domestic new car cycle, which will drive continuous sales growth. Additionally, the collaboration with Stellantis will facilitate a light-asset overseas expansion, opening up global sales opportunities [6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The cumulative sales from January to November reached 536,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 113.4%, surpassing the annual target of 500,000 vehicles ahead of schedule [6][7]. Product Launches - The company officially launched the Lafa5 model on November 27, priced between 97,800 to 121,800 CNY, continuing its strategy of offering high value for price [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see significant growth in sales and profitability due to a robust new car cycle and an expanding product matrix. The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 630 million, 5.01 billion, and 8.37 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 108.7X, 13.8X, and 8.2X [6][7]. Market Expansion - The company has established over 700 sales and service points across approximately 30 international markets, including Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific, with a significant presence in Europe [6][7]. Technological Investment - The company has increased its investment in intelligent driving, with a nearly 100% increase in team size and computational resources in the first half of 2025 [6].
行业点评:从武商集团看零售企业加速数字化转型
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-03 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The report highlights that Wushang Group's acquisition of Hangzhou Xiaodian Technology Co., Ltd. aims to enhance the technological empowerment of traditional retail formats and improve long-term competitiveness [10][13] - The acquisition involves a shareholding range of 70%-100%, with the final transaction price to be determined in formal agreements [2][6] - Hangzhou Xiaodian specializes in shared charging, storage lockers, smart travel, and smart energy services, creating a nationwide high-frequency offline traffic perception network [13] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of digital transformation among retail enterprises, focusing on improving operational efficiency of existing stores [13] Summary by Sections Event Description - Wushang Group announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Wuhan Jiangtun Smart Technology Co., Ltd., signed an intention agreement to acquire Hangzhou Xiaodian Technology, aiming for industry integration and capital cooperation [2][6] Event Commentary - The acquisition is expected to integrate Xiaodian's extensive offline traffic network and digital capabilities, addressing challenges in traffic conversion and intelligent management, thereby reconstructing the "people-goods-scene" ecosystem [13] - Retail companies are increasingly focusing on digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency, with examples from Tianhong and Chongqing Department Store showcasing successful digital initiatives [13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that enhancing operational management efficiency is essential for long-term competitiveness in the labor-intensive retail sector [13] - The industry is transitioning from rapid expansion to a phase of stable growth and market competition, which will test companies' product strength and refined operational capabilities [13]