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望远镜系列33之VF FY2026Q3经营跟踪:美洲带动整体增长,后续预期相对谨慎
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-02 11:11
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - In FY2026Q3 (September 28, 2025 - December 27, 2025), VF achieved revenue of $2.88 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 2% after excluding the impact of Dickies. This performance exceeded market expectations and the company's prior guidance [2][6] - The gross margin increased by 0.1 percentage points to 57.0%, primarily due to effective cost control offsetting tariff impacts [2][6] Revenue Breakdown - **By Brand**: Revenue performance met expectations, with Vans under pressure but showing growth in e-commerce. For FY2026Q3, revenue for Vans/The North Face/Timberland/Other brands was down 10%/up 5%/up 5%/up 4% to $558 million/$1.36 billion/$570 million/$392 million respectively [7] - **By Region**: The Americas showed strong performance, while Greater China continued to be a drag. Revenue for the Americas/EMEA/APAC regions was up 6%/down 3%/down 4% to $1.54 billion/$929 million/$408 million respectively, with Greater China down 6% [7] - **By Channel**: E-commerce drove growth, while wholesale channels faced slight pressure. Revenue for DTC/wholesale channels was up 3%/down 1% to $1.63 billion/$1.25 billion, with e-commerce revenue up 10% [7] Inventory Situation - As of FY2026Q3, the company's inventory amount was down 8% year-over-year to $1.66 billion, indicating manageable inventory levels [8] Performance Guidance - For FY2026Q4, the company expects revenue to be flat to up 2% year-over-year, with gross margin expected to remain stable or slightly increase. Adjusted operating profit is projected to be between $10 million and $30 million [8]
AI应用正当时:MoltBook引爆AI社交,Agent元年聚焦2C入口与高价值场景
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-02 11:10
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the industry, indicating that the commercialization of AI Agents is expected to accelerate significantly by 2026 [10]. Core Insights - The launch of the MoltBook social platform marks a significant milestone as it is the first AI Agent social network, allowing over 100,000 AI Agents to join within 48 hours, generating substantial engagement [8][10]. - The report emphasizes that the AI industry ecosystem will mature by 2026, leading to a rapid commercialization of AI Agents, particularly in high-value scenarios for both consumer (2C) and business (2B) applications [4][10]. - Key areas of focus include the 2C entry points involving major players like Alibaba and Tencent, and 2B applications in sectors such as healthcare, taxation, law, coding, office work, advertising, and e-commerce [4][10]. - The emergence of personal assistants is expected to drive innovation at the endpoint, with products like Clawdbot enhancing local deployment needs for individuals and families [4][10]. - The report predicts that 2026 will be a pivotal year for AI Agents, with advancements in reinforcement learning (RL) training paradigms and improved memory capabilities leading to enhanced autonomous actions [12]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The MoltBook platform's launch on January 29 has sparked discussions about AI autonomy, with over 100,000 AI Agents participating and generating significant content [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on the 2C entry points with major companies and the 2B high-value scenarios, highlighting the potential for substantial growth in these areas [10]. - The report also notes that the integration of AI Agents into various sectors will likely lead to a transformative impact on how businesses operate and interact with consumers [12].
收入表现强劲,全年指引上调:望远镜系列34之Deckers FY2026Q3经营跟踪
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-02 08:16
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - In FY2026Q3 (October 1, 2025 - December 31, 2025), Deckers achieved revenue of $1.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations of $1.87 billion. Gross margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 59.8%, outperforming expectations due to product mix adjustments and reduced tariff impacts on full-price sales. Net profit increased by 5% to $481 million, while net profit margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 24.6% due to gross margin pressure [2][6]. Revenue Breakdown - Brand performance is strong with balanced channel performance. UGG continued its steady performance, while HOKA experienced strong global growth. For FY2026Q3, revenues for HOKA, UGG, and other brands were $629 million (+18.5%), $1.31 billion (+4.9%), and $23 million (-55.5%) respectively. Both HOKA and UGG achieved balanced growth in DTC and wholesale channels, with UGG's quarterly performance boosted by adjustments in wholesale product structure and continuous innovation [7]. - Channel performance was balanced, with DTC recovering well. DTC and wholesale channel revenues for FY2026Q3 were $1.09 billion (+8.1%) and $860 million (+6.0%) respectively. The recovery in the U.S. DTC business contributed to this growth, and it is expected that the DTC channel will continue to improve [7]. - Regionally, the U.S. market showed recovery while international markets remained the main growth driver. Revenues for the U.S. and other regions in FY2026Q3 were $1.20 billion (+2.7%) and $760 million (+15.0%) respectively, indicating a recovery in the U.S. market and continued growth in international markets [7]. Inventory Situation - In FY2026Q3, the company's inventory amount increased by 10% year-on-year to $630 million, with the growth partly influenced by tariffs. The company has strengthened inventory management of existing styles and utilized the DTC channel to control excess inventory, leading to a relatively healthy inventory structure [12]. Performance Guidance - The company raised its full-year guidance, expecting FY2026 revenue to be between $5.4 billion and $5.425 billion (previous guidance was $5.35 billion), representing a year-on-year increase of 8.3% to 8.8%. HOKA is expected to grow in the mid-teens year-on-year, while UGG is expected to grow in the low single digits. Gross margin is projected to be around 57%, operating profit margin around 22.5%, and EPS between $6.80 and $6.85. For FY2026Q4, HOKA revenue is expected to grow by 13% to 14%, while UGG revenue is expected to remain flat year-on-year [12].
SST四问四答:下一代AIDC供电方案,0-1进程有望加速
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-02 05:18
SST四问四答: 下一代AIDC供电方案,0-1进程 有望加速 长江证券研究所电新研究小组 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 分析师 邬博华 分析师 曹海花 分析师 司鸿历 SAC执业证书编号:S0490514040001 SAC执业证书编号:S0490522030001 SAC执业证书编号:S0490520080002 SFC执业证书编号:BQK482 SFC执业证书编号:BVD284 %% %% 2026-02-02 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 SST是什么? 02 SST为何必要? 03 SST有何壁垒? 04 SST进展几何? 目 录 % research.95579.com 3 01 SST是什么? %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 01 SST是什么:基于电力电子的高集成度供电架构 ➢ 固态变压器(SST, Solid-State Transformer)是基于电力电子技术的高频、高效率电能变换装置,可替代传统工频变压器,实现电压变换 ...
厦门银行(601187):——2025年业绩快报点评:新五年强势开局,资产端提质上量
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-02 02:16
报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年厦门银行启动"2+3"新五年战略规划,首年实现开门红,业绩增速全面转正。作为资 产规模基数小、资产负债表底子干净的城商行,新一届管理层履新以来,全行营销士气全面提 升,信贷投放节奏前置,银行同业人才陆续加盟,同时在福建省内多个城市的市占率明显上升, 已经展现出强势的竞争力。我们预计厦门银行 2026~2029 年将陆续实现资产规模扩张、息差 企稳回升、风险指标改善,从营收增速回升传导到利润增速和 ROE 中枢抬升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC:S0490521120002 SAC:S0490524070002 SFC:BUT916 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨厦门银行(601187.SH) [Table_Title] 新五年强势开局,资产端提质上量 ——2025 年业绩快报点评 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 厦门银行(601187.SH) cjzqdt11111 [Ta ...
碳中和政策深化,如何展望钢铁行业的投资机遇?
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-02 01:05
行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 碳中和政策深化,如何展望钢铁行业的投资机遇? 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 钢铁工业的碳排放量约占全国碳排放总量的 15%左右,是排碳量最高的制造行业。钢铁是落实 减碳目标的重要主体,低碳炼钢是我国钢企必须迎接的挑战。回顾 2020 年,钢铁行业首次提 出"碳达峰"的目标,对钢铁行业的"碳达峰"的要求演变为粗钢产量达峰,即"粗钢产量平 控"政策的落地。然而,随着"房住不炒"挤压地产泡沫,由于新开工端需求的下降,钢铁终 端需求接连下降,唯有"减量去产能",才能使钢铁行业的供需回归均衡。当前碳中和政策的深 化,"双碳"或为加速钢铁行业落后产能出清的重要抓手。 分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC:S0490512070002 SAC:S0490519030001 SAC:S0490520080012 SAC:S0490525080005 SFC:BQT626 SFC:BUY139 SFC:BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Autho ...
会稽山(601579):更新报告:通过高新认证,新品持续迭代
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-02 00:49
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - The company has recently obtained the recognition as a high-tech enterprise, which allows it to enjoy tax benefits at a rate of 15% from 2025 to 2027, potentially increasing reported profits by approximately 23 million [2][7] - Key products such as Lanting and sparkling yellow wine are expected to continue their iterations in 2025, with Lanting launching a 600ml specification and sparkling yellow wine introducing canned versions and other flavors, both anticipated to achieve good growth [2][7] - The sales of sparkling yellow wine are projected to expand beyond the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions into key markets like Shandong, Guangdong, and Sichuan, supporting the company's strategy for youthfulness and national expansion [2][7] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The company has received high-tech enterprise certification, which will enhance its profit margins due to favorable tax rates [2][7] - The product lineup is set to evolve with new specifications and flavors, aiming for significant growth in 2025 [2][7] Market Strategy - The company plans to broaden the market coverage of its sparkling yellow wine in 2026, targeting a sales goal of 200 million and entering more second and third-tier cities [2][7] Financial Projections - For 2025 and 2026, the expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.48 and 0.57 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 46 and 38 [2][7]
容量电价,因何而来?向何处去?
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-02 00:42
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the utility sector, particularly for coal-fired power operators, with a recommendation to focus on quality transformation operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, Guodian Power, Huadian International, China Power, China Resources Power, and Funiu Co., Ltd. [7] Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of the capacity compensation mechanism in addressing the long-standing issue of fixed cost recovery in the coal-fired power sector. The implementation of a reliable capacity compensation mechanism is expected to resolve the dual pricing system between long-term contracts and spot market prices, leading to a more balanced electricity market. [2][5][7] - The report anticipates that by 2026, the national capacity supply-demand ratio will reach 84%-96%, with capacity prices ranging from 276 to 316 RMB/year·kW. This is expected to alleviate the downward pressure on long-term contract prices significantly. [7] - The report emphasizes that the introduction of the capacity compensation mechanism will decouple the fixed cost recovery from long-term contract pricing, thus allowing coal-fired power to return to being a public utility. [7] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the recent announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission regarding the improvement of the capacity price mechanism, which aims to unify various types of regulatory power sources under a new reform initiative. [18] Importance of Capacity Compensation Mechanism - The capacity price is designed to compensate for fixed costs associated with power plants, which include capital costs, fixed operating and maintenance costs, and taxes. This mechanism is crucial for ensuring that power companies can recover their fixed costs effectively. [21][22] International Examples and Domestic Innovations - The report references the PJM capacity market mechanism in the U.S. and the innovative capacity compensation mechanism trialed in Gansu Province, which aims to achieve near-full recovery of fixed costs. [6] Breaking the Profitability Dilemma - The report concludes that if the reliable capacity compensation mechanism is implemented nationwide, it will significantly reduce the profitability challenges faced by coal-fired power plants under the current dual pricing system. [7]
电商合规成本上升,快递重回龙头舒适区
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-01 23:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [14] Core Insights - Since Q4 2025, the growth rate of the express delivery industry has been declining, with growth rates of 7.9%, 5.0%, and 2.3% in October, November, and December 2025 respectively. This slowdown has accelerated the differentiation within the industry, with leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express outperforming second-tier competitors [2][7][23] - Key factors influencing the industry include: 1) The introduction of precise tax audits for e-commerce, increasing compliance costs for merchants; 2) The "anti-involution" measures in express delivery, which have set a clear bottom line for competition and raised logistics costs [7][30][36] - Looking ahead to 2026, the industry is expected to experience a clearer turning point in differentiation, with leading companies likely to continue gaining market share and potentially benefiting from volume, profit, and valuation improvements [8][42] Summary by Sections E-commerce Compliance Costs - The e-commerce tax collection has been strengthened, significantly increasing compliance costs for merchants. The introduction of the "Internet Platform Enterprises Tax Information Reporting Regulations" in June 2025 marks a new phase of tax compliance in the e-commerce sector [30][33] - The tax burden for online merchants has increased, particularly for those with annual revenues exceeding 5 million, as the advantages of non-compliance diminish [30][34] Anti-Involution Measures - The "anti-involution" measures have stabilized express delivery prices, leading to improved profitability for express companies. Since September 2025, the price growth rate has turned positive, enhancing the single-ticket profitability of express services [36][37] - The focus on maintaining a safe bottom line in the industry is expected to continue, with the postal administration prioritizing the regulation of "involution-style" competition in 2026 [36] Industry Outlook - The express delivery industry is anticipated to return to single-digit growth rates, with a clearer differentiation among companies. Leading firms with strong product value propositions and solid financial structures are expected to gain market share [42] - The report highlights the potential for valuation premiums to recover for leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express, as their market share and profit expectations improve [42][46]
游戏产业跟踪(22):Genie3或重塑游戏行业开发链路,TapTap推出AI游戏创作智能体
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-01 23:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the gaming industry [7]. Core Insights - Google's experimental research prototype, Project Genie, and TapTap's AI game creation agent are expected to reshape the game development chain and build a new content ecosystem. The integration of AI is anticipated to enhance the gaming industry significantly [2][4]. - The core competitive advantages in the gaming industry remain IP, quality content, gameplay innovation, and platform capabilities. Companies that actively embrace AI and possess mature game development capabilities are viewed positively [2][4]. - The gaming sector is expected to experience a strong product cycle and performance certainty through 2026, with a focus on investment opportunities in the gaming sector [2][4]. Summary by Sections Event Description - Google has officially launched Project Genie, an experimental research prototype powered by Genie 3, which allows users to create and explore interactive 3D environments based on text prompts or uploaded images. This technology represents a significant breakthrough in AI world simulation [9]. - TapTap has introduced the AI game creation agent "TapTap Manufacturing," which aims to lower the technical barriers for game creation, promoting a "zero-threshold creation" era. This product allows creators to develop and launch games through natural language dialogue without leaving the chat interface [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses optimism about the long-term empowerment of the gaming industry by AI, with a focus on new game releases and industry catalysts. The gaming sector's product cycle and performance certainty through 2026 are expected to remain strong, highlighting investment opportunities in companies such as Giant Network, Kaixin Network, Perfect World, and Tencent [2][9].