Core Insights - The report focuses on two historical gold bull market cycles: 1975-1980 and 2005-2011, analyzing the correlation and divergence between gold and U.S. equities during different phases and the underlying driving mechanisms [3][17]. - Three core variables influencing the relationship between gold and U.S. equities are identified: U.S. dollar credit, monetary policy cycles, and the evolution of risk events [3][17]. Framework 1: Major Asset Allocation Strategy - Utilizing Martin J. Pring's business cycle framework, the U.S. economy from 1975 to present is segmented into six cycles: depression, recovery, prosperity, overheating, stagflation, and recession [6][29]. - In the depression phase, bonds outperform due to declining economic and inflation conditions; during recovery, equities become the core allocation as economic stability and declining inflation support growth [6][29]. Framework 2: Global Monetary Easing and Asset Rotation Strategy - Historical data reveals that post-economic crises, the recovery sequence of various resource prices follows their proximity to end-user demand [7][18]. - After the 2008 financial crisis, gold stabilized first due to its safe-haven attributes, followed by commodities with both financial and industrial characteristics, and finally assets closely tied to real demand [7][18]. Gold Bull Market Cycle Analysis - The first gold bull market (1975-1980) was driven by stagflation, with gold prices increasing by 242%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 98% rise [32][37]. - The second bull market (2005-2011) was characterized by the subprime crisis and quantitative easing, evolving through four phases: pre-crisis coordination, crisis-induced divergence, policy-driven coordination, and renewed divergence amid rising risks [17][32]. Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts may benefit both U.S. equities and gold, with a favorable monetary environment likely to boost equity valuations and resource prices [9][18]. - However, there is a caution regarding the internal conflict between gold and technology stocks, particularly if AI investments do not enhance productivity and fiscal sustainability, which could lead to market volatility [9][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heavy truck industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The heavy truck industry continues to experience high prosperity driven by the vehicle replacement policy, with significant year-on-year growth in sales and exports [9][19][73] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In October 2025, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 106,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 59.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.6%. Registration sales were 70,000 units, up 57.0% year-on-year but down 15.9% month-on-month. Exports totaled 37,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.4% and a month-on-month increase of 13.9% [9][19][73]. Three Driving Forces 1. **Oil and Gas Price Differential**: The oil and gas price differential has decreased, with the price difference remaining around 3,000 yuan/ton throughout 2025. As of November 10, 2025, the price differential was 2,470.7 yuan, marking a low for the year [33][37]. 2. **New Energy Penetration**: The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks continues to grow, with October 2025 registration sales reaching 20,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 156.7% [51][55]. 3. **Strong Demand in Asia and Africa**: Exports to Asia and Africa have seen robust demand, with heavy truck exports in October 2025 reaching 37,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 39.4% [73][76]. Inventory Management - Inventory levels are being effectively reduced, with both enterprise and channel inventories showing a downward trend. In October 2025, enterprise inventory decreased by 200 units, while channel inventory fell by 100 units [14]. Market Share and Sales by Major Companies - The top three heavy truck manufacturers in October 2025 were China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, FAW Group, and Dongfeng Motor Corporation, with wholesale sales of 28,000 units, 24,000 units, and 15,000 units respectively. Their market shares were 26.5%, 22.5%, and 14.0%, reflecting year-on-year increases [12][27]. Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - The registration volume of natural gas heavy trucks in October 2025 was 21,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 137.9%. The penetration rate for natural gas heavy trucks reached 30.1%, up 10.2 percentage points year-on-year [37][45]. New Energy Heavy Trucks - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks reached 28.3% in October 2025, with significant growth in sales of new energy tractors and dump trucks [51][55]. Export Performance - Heavy truck exports in October 2025 were 37,000 units, with Africa and Asia being the largest markets, accounting for 44.5% and 41.8% of total exports respectively [73][76].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [6] Core Insights - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket is expected to accelerate the development of commercial aerospace in China, with 2027-2028 projected as a pivotal year for the industry [2][10] - The Zhuque-3 rocket, designed for large constellation networking tasks, demonstrates significant capabilities including a reusable design and a payload capacity of no less than 18 tons for near-Earth orbit [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring capital expenditure changes among downstream operators, as well as focusing on the related industrial chains of Shanghai Yuanxin and Zhuque-3 [2][10] Summary by Sections Event Description - On December 3, 2025, the Zhuque-3 rocket successfully completed its flight mission, marking a significant milestone in China's commercial aerospace efforts [4] Event Commentary - The Zhuque-3 rocket is a new generation of low-cost, high-capacity, and reusable launch vehicle, which is expected to support major national aerospace projects and satellite internet deployment [10] - The report highlights the stable and reliable performance of the rocket during its flight, although there was an issue with the vertical recovery attempt of the first stage [10] - The rapid development of commercial aerospace in China is anticipated, with a focus on the advancements in large thrust reusable rockets by private enterprises and research institutions [10]

丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 成长指数拥挤度重回今年三季度高点 —— W133 市场观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周大盘修复反弹，科技成长领涨，长江创业板成长动量周度涨幅超 9%，长江动量指数周度 涨幅近 10%，今年三季度成长热点板块周度回归。不过成长修复背后，周度全 A 的成交额相较 于今年三季度仍有一定程度回落。各类风格和行业拥挤度比较上看，红利风格拥挤度普遍边际 变化不大，社会服务、农产品、传媒互联网等交易活跃度回暖相对较多。当周小微盘表现优于 大盘，成交活跃度也呈现同步回升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 成长指数拥挤度重回今年三季度高点 2] —— W133 市场观察 [Table_Summary2] 度量市场情绪：小微盘指数成交热度持续回暖，成长指数成交拥挤度边际修复 机构赚钱效应：成长回暖下，基金重仓悉数反弹 行业板块：通讯业务、信 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - From November 24 - 28, 2025, the central bank had a net 7 - day reverse repurchase fund withdrawal, a treasury cash fixed - deposit injection of 12 billion yuan, and an MLF operation of 100 billion yuan. From November 24 - 30, 2025, the net government bond payment scale decreased compared to the previous week, most inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) maturity yields rose slightly, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased. On November 28, 2025, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased week - on - week by 0.55 years and 0.08 years respectively [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Funds - In November 2025, the net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan. From November 24 - 28, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 16.42 billion yuan, treasury cash fixed - deposit injection was 12 billion yuan, and MLF had a net injection of 10 billion yuan. From December 1 - 5, 2025, 151.18 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases will mature. In total, the net injection of outright reverse repurchases in November was 50 billion yuan, and the net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, with the combined net injection scale remaining stable month - on - month. In December, the maturity scales of 3M and 6M outright reverse repurchases are 100 billion yuan and 40 billion yuan respectively, and 30 billion yuan of MLF will mature [6]. - The overall funds situation was loose. From November 24 - 28, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.31% and 1.39% respectively, down 11.7 and 10.1 basis points compared to November 17 - 21; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.46% and 1.53% respectively, down 3.5 basis points and up 1.0 basis point compared to November 17 - 21. On the 28th, the weighted average rate of DR001 was closer to 1.30% and broke through 1.30% intraday [7]. - The net government bond financing scale decreased. From November 24 - 30, 2025, the net government bond payment scale was about 32.89 billion yuan, about 8.17 billion yuan less than November 17 - 23, including about 3.91 billion yuan of net treasury bond financing and about 28.98 billion yuan of net local government bond financing. From December 1 - 7, 2025, the expected net government bond payment scale is 8.66 billion yuan, including about - 5 billion yuan of net treasury bond financing and about 13.66 billion yuan of net local government bond financing [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - Most NCD maturity yields rose slightly. As of November 28, 2025, the 1M and 3M NCD maturity yields were 1.4450% and 1.5750% respectively, down 4.5 basis points and up 0.2 basis points compared to November 21; the 1Y NCD maturity yield was 1.6400%, up 0.5 basis points compared to November 21 [8]. - The net NCD financing amount remained negative. From November 24 - 30, 2025, the net NCD financing amount was about - 24.25 billion yuan, compared to about - 37.4 billion yuan from November 17 - 23. From December 1 - 7, 2025, the expected NCD maturity repayment amount is 44.88 billion yuan, with a significantly reduced roll - over pressure compared to the previous week. The NCD maturity scale in December is about 3.7 trillion yuan, which is relatively high [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased. From November 24 - 28, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.32%, compared to 107.15% from November 17 - 21. On November 28 and 21, the calculated leverage ratios were about 107.02% and 107.31% respectively [9]. - Based on the calculation results, the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased marginally. On November 28, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 3.68 years, down 0.55 years week - on - week, at the 60.3% quantile since early 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.56 years, down 0.08 years week - on - week, at the 23.2% quantile since early 2022 [9].

[Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 产业跟踪：DeepSeek-V3.2 正式版发布，关 注大模型商业化落地进展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 1 日，DeepSeek-V3.2 和 DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale 正式发布。官方网页端、App 和 API 均已更新为 V3.2 版本。Speciale 版本目前仅以临时 API 服务形式开放，以供社区评测与研 究。相比 Exp 版本， V3.2 实现了高计算效率与卓越推理、Agent 性能的统一，同时支持在思 考和非思考模式下使用工具。2025 年 DeepSeek 已发布 7 款模型，开源阵营持续扩大。后续 展望来看，关注 AI 产品发布超预期情况与 AI Agent 落地进展。继续看好国产 AI 链、国产算力 链以及国内 AI 出海，持续重点推荐铲子股和卡位优势显著的巨头本身。 分析师及联系人 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 宗建树 刘思缘 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨媒体Ⅱ [Table_Title] AI 系列跟踪（83）：DeepSeek-V3.2 正式发 布，可灵 AI 视频 O1 模型全量上新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 1 日，DeepSeek-V3.2 正式版和 DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale 发布，DeepSeek-V3.2 大幅 强化 Agent 能力，DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale 主打极致推理性能。同日，可灵 AI 视频 O1 模型 正式上线，其核心亮点在于统一底座、全能指令和强大一致性。在 AI 细分赛道中，我们看好： 1）优质 IP 或受益于 AI 技术演进带来的创作效率和变现价值提升，看好受益于多模态加速的 AI 漫剧赛道；2）具备流量&模型&数据优势的互联网大厂；3）海外已跑通商业模式，国内有望 复制（广告、电商、教育等）的垂直赛道；4）AI+游戏厂商。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080001 SFC：BUX177 高超 朱子愉 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 12 月 1 日，DeepSeek-V3.2 正式版和 ...

展现状 联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 氢能周度观察：从中国能建招标看制氢电解槽发 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周我们关注制氢装备。中国能建 2025 年度制氢设备集中采购中标结果出炉，连续三年披露 候选名单。我国制氢装备今年迎来爆发式增长，1-9 月国内订单总量超 4.1GW，且有多笔 GW 级别的大单；碱性电解槽技术为主导；竞争格局尚未稳定。行业协会发布电解槽行业健康发展 倡议书，引导产业从价格竞争走向质量提升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 司鸿历 贾少波 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490520080002 SAC：S0490520070003 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BVD284 李博文 盛意 SAC：S0490524080004 SAC：S0490525070006 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 8 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 氢能周度观察：从中国能建招标看制氢电 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.7 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 220 million yuan, up 45% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 1.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9%, and the net profit reached about 100 million yuan, showing a significant growth of 395% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q3, the company's revenue showed a slight year-on-year increase, primarily benefiting from an increase in shipment volume [11]. Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 was approximately 13.4%, reflecting an improvement year-on-year, attributed to a low base from the previous year and an increase in order delivery prices. The expense ratio for Q3 was about 6.3%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the dilution effect from increased revenue [11]. Order Backlog - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had inventory and contract liabilities of approximately 2.3 billion yuan and 600 million yuan, respectively, both at historical highs. The total executing and pending orders amounted to about 4.77 billion yuan, with land-based wind power equipment orders at approximately 3.56 billion yuan and offshore wind power orders at about 1.19 billion yuan [11]. Future Outlook - The company is actively developing its offshore wind base in Yangzhou, which is expected to capitalize on domestic and international offshore wind opportunities, enhancing performance growth potential. Additionally, the company is advancing into new business areas such as commercial aerospace, which may open up a second growth curve [11]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are approximately 330 million yuan and 450 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of about 21 times and 16 times [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.013 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.52%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 48 million yuan, up 28.05% year-on-year. However, the non-recurring net profit decreased by 31.40% year-on-year to -17 million yuan [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 863 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.01%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 34 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 94.01% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 34.84%. The non-recurring net profit turned positive at 9 million yuan, but decreased by 71.1% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company’s total revenue was 2.013 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 42.52%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 48 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.05%. The non-recurring net profit was -17 million yuan, down 31.40% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company’s revenue reached 863 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 56.13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.01%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 34 million yuan, up 94.01% year-on-year but down 34.84% quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit was 9 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from losses but a decline of 71.1% from the previous quarter [2][4]. Market and Operational Insights - The company’s sales volume for energy storage and power business in Q3 was 1.078 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 156.06% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.29%. The energy storage segment is expected to benefit from recovering demand in the European market and expansion into emerging markets in Southeast Asia and South America [12]. - The company’s sodium-ion battery sales exceeded 100 MWh, and shared battery swap sales surpassed 400 MWh in the first three quarters. The improvement in capacity utilization has led to a continuous increase in gross margin, which was 21.09% in Q3, up 0.48 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 120 million yuan and 380 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively. The fundamental turning point for the company has been established, with expectations for overseas commercial storage and emerging market household storage to gradually contribute to growth [6][12].