Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Viewpoints - The report expresses strong optimism regarding the new round of financial innovation, particularly with the integration of traditional finance and blockchain technology, which is expected to reshape the current market landscape [6][49] - Recent regulatory changes, including the issuance of data circulation transaction contract templates and the People's Bank of China's new CIPS rules, are anticipated to accelerate data flow and enhance cross-border payment systems [19][27] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Last week, the computer sector experienced a slight decline of 1.14%, ranking 32nd among primary industries in the Yangtze River region, with a market share of 9.78% in total trading volume [2][12] Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with token issuance qualifications, those with technological expertise in blockchain, and firms holding relevant licenses, particularly in the financial IT sector [6][49] Regulatory Developments - The National Data Bureau and the State Administration for Market Regulation released model contracts to facilitate data circulation, which is expected to improve transaction efficiency by approximately 30% [21][26] - The People's Bank of China is seeking public opinion on the draft rules for the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which aims to enhance participant management and support the growth of CIPS business [27][29] Emerging Trends - The report highlights the rise of Real-World Asset Tokenization (RWA), which merges blockchain technology with traditional finance, addressing issues such as ownership confirmation and transaction efficiency [41][49] - The global RWA market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it could reach $50 billion by the end of 2025 and potentially exceed $2 trillion by 2030 [43][49]

Report Title - "Special Bond Issuance Progress Nearly 50% - Government Bond Weekly Report (7/6)" [1][4] Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of local government bond issuance, including actual and forecasted issuance, special bond issuance progress, and investment - trading indicators [2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual Issuance (June 30 - July 6)**: Total issuance was 721.39 billion yuan, with 574.32 billion yuan in new bonds (66.00 billion in new general bonds and 508.22 billion in new special bonds) and 147.07 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (146.37 billion in refinancing general bonds and 0.7 billion in refinancing special bonds) [2][5]. - **Forecasted Issuance (July 7 - July 13)**: Total forecasted issuance is 2249.98 billion yuan, with 716.95 billion yuan in new bonds (145.02 billion in new general bonds and 571.93 billion in new special bonds) and 1533.03 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (828.82 billion in refinancing general bonds and 704.21 billion in refinancing special bonds) [4]. - **Plan vs. Actual**: The report presents a comparison of planned and actual local bond issuance in different regions and time periods [19]. 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of July 6, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 56.50%, and that of new special bonds was 49.17% [24]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The report shows the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of July 6 [24]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: As of July 6, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds totaled 41653.80 billion yuan, with 17768.55 billion yuan in 2025 and an additional 286.32 billion yuan to be added next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale were Jiangsu, Shandong, and Sichuan [6]. - **Special New Special Bonds**: As of July 6, 2025 special new special bonds totaled 4865.26 billion yuan, and 16770.39 billion yuan since 2023. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale were Jiangsu, Hubei, and Xinjiang [6]. 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The report provides data on local bond primary and secondary spreads [35]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: It presents secondary spreads in different regions from May 9, 2025, to July 4, 2025 [38]. 3.5 New Special Bond Investment Directions - The report shows the monthly investment statistics of new special bonds, with the latest month only considering issued new bonds [40].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a turning point in the aviation industry, with strong attractiveness in odds and a multi-factor resonance leading to improvement, indicating that profitability is on the rise quarter by quarter [4][24]. - The supply side is tightening, with clear signals of supply-demand improvement, and the cyclical elasticity is finally being released [4][24]. - Most companies in the industry currently have a single-machine market value in the historical top 40% percentile, making the odds highly attractive [4][24]. Group 2: Aviation Sector Analysis - The report reviews the price challenges faced in 2024, noting a significant decline in domestic ticket prices, which has negatively impacted stock performance [22][25]. - Starting from Q2 2025, the decline in naked ticket prices has significantly narrowed, with passenger load factors and aircraft utilization rates approaching historical highs [22][41]. - The demand side is evolving, with trends similar to Japan's past, including increased travel frequency and stable business demand, driven by demographic changes and economic structure [23][64]. Group 3: Supply Side Dynamics - The report indicates that engine issues during the off-season have further squeezed about 5% of capacity, complicating global aircraft introductions due to tariff impacts on the supply chain [23][24]. - It forecasts a 2.3% year-on-year growth in industry supply for 2025 and 1.7% for 2026, suggesting a continuous improvement in supply-demand relationships [23][24]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends A-share private airlines (Hua Xia, Spring Airlines, and Ji Xiang) and the three major Hong Kong airlines, considering performance elasticity and valuation percentiles [4][24]. - If the PMI index shows a significant reversal, it suggests recommending the three major A-share airlines as elastic targets [4][24]. Group 5: Airport Sector Insights - The airport sector is expected to see steady profit growth, with its business model's sustainability and the upgrade of duty-free operations closely tied to long-term economic recovery expectations [8]. - The report anticipates accelerated recovery of international passenger flows, with rising per capita consumption driving steady increases in airport duty-free and taxable commercial spending [8]. Group 6: Highway Sector Analysis - The highway sector is characterized by stable profit foundations, with low-interest rates enhancing the cost-effectiveness of road investments [9]. - The report suggests focusing on stable growth and dividend-paying stocks like China Merchants Highway, Ninghu Highway, and Guangdong Highway, which are backed by monopolistic core assets [9].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of free cash flow as a key indicator of business quality and operational efficiency in the logistics industry, particularly during the transition to high-quality economic development [4][21] - Three main investment opportunities are identified: stable profitability from companies with strong competitive barriers, high growth potential in Southeast Asia's express delivery market, and operational improvements in companies facing weak demand [4][21] Group 1: Free Cash Flow and Investment Opportunities - Free cash flow improvement is driven by three scenarios: stable profitability from companies with solid market positions, high demand in niche markets, and operational enhancements in response to industry challenges [7][21] - SF Express has focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvements since 2021, leading to continuous free cash flow enhancement and a solid foundation for shareholder returns [9][70] - J&T Express is positioned to leverage its leading advantage in Southeast Asia, potentially achieving simultaneous growth in market share and profitability [10][75] Group 2: Technological Advancements in Logistics - The accelerated adoption of new technologies in logistics is expected to reduce production costs and enhance operational efficiency, thereby strengthening business resilience and improving free cash flow [8][28] - Key technological breakthroughs include the use of low-speed unmanned logistics vehicles, smart heavy trucks, and AI-driven management systems, which collectively aim to optimize costs across various logistics segments [29][31] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The express delivery market is characterized by a high barrier to entry and a stable oligopolistic structure, with SF Express maintaining a competitive edge through strategic positioning in the high-end market [9][40] - The domestic express delivery sector is experiencing intensified competition, particularly as companies like Zhongtong adjust strategies to regain market share amidst declining average revenue per package [10][75] - The freight forwarding sector is witnessing increased concentration, with companies like Aneng Logistics optimizing their service offerings and management practices to enhance profitability [11][70]

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 信用"压利差"行情或延续 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 7 月信用债市场在增量资金驱动下或延续"压利差"行情，保险、理财等增量资金入场或将提 振需求，尤其利好中长久期中低评级品种。保险预定利率下调预期、理财跨季回流及净值化整 改进度过半或释放增量配置需求。资金面宽松与信用债 ETF 扩容构成支撑，中长久期券种因利 差收窄空间较大而表现较优，但需警惕行情过热后的估值波动风险。整体来看，结构性机会明 确，但需关注政策动向及资金面变化，建议布局增量资金目标品种并控制资质下沉边界。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 信用"压利差"行情或延续 [Table_Summa] 增量资金逻辑下，信用"压利差"行情或延续 7 月保险、理财等增量资金入场或将提振信用债需求，尤其利好中低 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the automotive parts sector as a promising investment opportunity, driven by domestic smart upgrades, global expansion, and the transformation towards humanoid robotics [3][10][19] - Three main investment themes are identified: domestic smart upgrades and local substitution, overseas expansion, and the transition of automotive parts companies into the humanoid robotics industry [6][10][19] Domestic Market: Smart Upgrades and Local Substitution - The shift towards smart technology is creating new growth opportunities in the automotive parts sector, with a focus on key components such as lidar, smart driving chips, and electronic control systems [7][25] - The market for smart driving components is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 23.0% for smart driving chips, reaching a market size of 217 billion yuan by 2024 [39] - The domestic automotive parts industry is witnessing an increase in localization rates, with expectations for many components to rise from approximately 10% to over 30% in the coming years [29] Overseas Market: Global Expansion - Chinese automotive parts companies are leveraging their technological, cost, and service advantages to penetrate global supply chains, with overseas revenue growing from 137.25 billion yuan in 2015 to 439.06 billion yuan in 2024, representing a CAGR of 13.8% [64][65] - Despite trade tensions and increased tariffs, Chinese automotive parts firms have maintained strong competitiveness in the U.S. market, with exports rebounding post-2019 [68][70] Humanoid Robotics: New Growth Opportunities - The automotive parts sector is poised to enter the humanoid robotics market, with companies expected to contribute to the rapid development of humanoid robots, projected to achieve mass production by 2025 [9][10] - The humanoid robotics market is anticipated to open up significant growth avenues for automotive parts companies, particularly in components such as actuators, sensors, and lightweight materials [9][10][45] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are well-positioned in the domestic smart upgrade market, such as Bertel, Fuyao Glass, and Xingyu Co., as well as those with strong global expansion strategies like Xinquan and Minshi Group [10] - Companies transitioning into humanoid robotics, such as Top Group, are highlighted as having the potential to create a second growth curve [10]

Group 1 - The chemical industry is experiencing a continued downturn in 2025, with mixed performance across sub-sectors, as indicated by revenue growth rates of +3.1% for chemical raw materials, -6.6% for chemical fibers, and +6.0% for rubber and plastics from January to April 2025 [6][21]. - Profitability remains weak, with the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sector reporting a profit decline of -4.4%, while the chemical fiber sector saw a more significant drop of -11.7% [21][23]. - The report highlights that only 15.6% of the 32 mainstream chemical products have price differentials above the historical 50th percentile, indicating a generally low pricing environment [30]. Group 2 - The global GDP growth forecast for 2025 is approximately 2.8%, down from 3.3% in 2024, with emerging markets leading the growth while developed economies face persistent inflation [7][33]. - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions contribute to uncertainties in export demand, with a noted decline in the export value of chemical products from China by -3.4% in early 2025 [37][43]. - The report suggests that the chemical industry may see structural benefits in supply and demand dynamics in the latter half of 2025, with certain sub-sectors expected to recover from their lows [8][9]. Group 3 - The investment strategy emphasizes a focus on cyclical sectors with elasticity, recommending products such as refrigerants, potassium fertilizers, phosphates, pesticides, and polyester filament [8][9]. - Stable growth sectors are highlighted, including civil explosives, sweeteners, and amino acids, which are expected to maintain steady demand [10]. - New productivity avenues are identified, particularly in humanoid robotics and AI materials, with a focus on domestic production capabilities in high-end materials due to international trade frictions [11][52].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a total of 34,611 vehicle deliveries in June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 224.4% and a month-on-month increase of 3.2% [2][4]. - Cumulative vehicle deliveries for Q2 2025 reached 103,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 241.6% [2][4]. - The company is expected to see steady sales growth due to a strong new vehicle cycle, with the launch of models like MONA M03 and P7+ [2][7]. - The company anticipates achieving a revenue of 99.1 billion yuan in 2025, corresponding to a price-to-sales ratio of 1.2X, with significant improvements in software revenue contributing to financial performance [7]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In June 2025, the company delivered 34,611 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 224.4% and a month-on-month growth of 3.2% [2][4]. - For Q2 2025, the total vehicle deliveries reached 103,000 units, achieving a new quarterly record with a year-on-year increase of 241.6% [2][7]. New Vehicle Cycle - The launch of new models such as G6, G9, and the upcoming G7 is expected to drive sales further, with G6 and G9 already performing well in domestic and international markets [7]. - The company has initiated a strong new vehicle cycle, with multiple new models set to be released in Q3 and Q4 2025 [7]. Profitability Outlook - The company is projected to achieve a turnaround in profitability by Q4 2025, with expectations of positive free cash flow for the year [7]. - The ongoing improvements in scale, platform, and technology cost reductions, along with the expansion of software revenue models, are expected to enhance future profitability [7].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the investment strategy for the shipping industry in the second half of 2025 will focus on cash flow and supply factors due to significant uncertainties in shipping demand caused by frequent tariff policy adjustments [4][7][24] - The shipping sector's investment logic includes: 1) Tight supply in the industry and strong cash flow for near-sea and domestic shipping; 2) Low supply growth with potential marginal changes in demand for oil and bulk shipping [4][7][24] Container Shipping: Tariff Policy Disruptions - In the first half of 2025, the container shipping market faced fluctuations, with pressure on freight rates in Q1 and underwhelming demand post-tariff reductions in Q2 [8][29] - The report notes that the delivery of new ships is expected to reach historical highs, leading to significant supply pressure in the long-distance shipping sector [8][29] - The report highlights that the near-sea shipping market remains favorable due to limited new supply of feeder vessels and ongoing improvements in domestic shipping [8][29] Oil Tankers: Bullish Options Amid Weak Realities - The oil tanker sector is experiencing a lack of improvement in downstream demand, with low operating rates for refineries in China [9][61] - The report indicates that OPEC+ has begun to increase production, which could lead to an upward shift in the demand curve for oil transportation [9][63] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the recent Israel-Iran conflict, are expected to benefit oil shipping due to increased volatility [9][63] Dry Bulk: Weak Supply and Demand - The dry bulk shipping market has seen a decline in freight rates due to disruptions in the shipment of bauxite and iron ore [10][34] - The report anticipates that the commissioning of the West Manganese project by the end of the year will positively impact the demand for Capesize vessels [10][34] Investment Perspective - The report suggests that the near-sea and domestic shipping sectors are positioned for higher profitability due to tight supply and strong cash flow among leading shipping companies [8][58] - The potential implementation of the U.S. 301 tariff measures could further increase demand for feeder vessels, as it would raise operational costs for Chinese shipping companies [51][58]

Core Insights - The report predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fluctuate around $65-70 per barrel in the second half of 2025, driven by tight supply and slow demand growth, with potential short-term spikes due to geopolitical factors [4][9] - The petrochemical industry is expected to gradually recover from its bottoming out phase, returning to a normal capacity cycle constrained by credit boundaries, leading to a slow recovery in profitability in 2025 and beyond [4][10] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in high-quality growth stocks, coal chemical equipment investments, and high-dividend sectors, emphasizing a bottom-up investment approach [4][10] Oil Price Trends - Oil prices experienced a two-phase trend in 2025: a decline from $74.64 to $60.23 per barrel (down 19.31%) until May 3, followed by a recovery to $77.01 per barrel (up 27.86%) after May 3 due to seasonal demand and geopolitical tensions [7][25] - The report indicates that global oil supply remains tight, with non-OECD countries contributing to demand growth, which will limit the extent of price declines [9][27] Industry Performance - Global refining capacity is projected to grow by 440,000 barrels per day from 2022 to 2028, with China contributing significantly to this increase [27][33] - The report notes that domestic refined oil demand is nearing its peak, with a decline in consumption due to economic weakness and competition from electric vehicles [39][45] - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with some chemical products showing improved profitability despite high raw material costs [8][45] Investment Themes - The report emphasizes four main investment themes: 1. Quality growth and leading companies in the industry experiencing volume and price increases [10] 2. Opportunities in high-end materials and technology import substitution [10] 3. Investments related to the upcoming coal chemical investment cycle [10] 4. High dividend yielding state-owned enterprises benefiting from economic recovery [10][11] Recommendations - Key investment targets include leading companies in ethylene production, coal chemical leaders, and high dividend stocks such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum [11][10] - The report suggests focusing on companies that are positioned to benefit from the recovery in domestic demand and the transition to high-end materials [11][10]