Core Insights - The current gold bull market has lasted for 33 months, with increasing divergence in market views regarding its cycle position and potential [3][18] - The report provides a new perspective on the confrontation between gold and interest-bearing assets, suggesting that gold still has room to rise despite fears of high prices [3][10] - The second half of the year may see a higher probability of recession, which could further boost the gold bull market through cyclical safe-haven investments and de-dollarization trends [3][10] Half-Year Review: Three Phases of Change - As of June 30, 2025, gold prices increased by 26% to $3,302 per ounce, with a peak of $3,500 per ounce, divided into three phases: January-March saw a COMEX squeeze, April experienced a V-shaped reversal due to tariff escalations, and May-June saw geopolitical easing leading to price stabilization [8][21] - Notable differences this year include a shift in U.S. economic expectations, a significant increase in the negative correlation between gold prices and the U.S. dollar/stock market, and the sensitivity of gold stocks to price changes due to historically low valuations [8][29] Gold's Perspective: Store of Value vs. Interest-Bearing Assets - Gold's opposition is not only to the U.S. dollar but also to interest-bearing assets, with historical data showing that gold and interest-bearing assets have cyclical rotations rather than a one-sided advantage [9][37] - The report highlights that the annual compound returns of gold and the S&P 500 are nearly equal at approximately 7.2%, indicating that stable long-term returns are challenging to achieve [9][40] Historical Price Anchoring: Extreme Pricing Scenarios - The report explores potential extreme pricing scenarios for gold, suggesting that in a recessionary environment, gold could reach $4,196 per ounce, while in a stagflation scenario, it could reach $10,093 per ounce [10][60] - The analysis indicates that the current gold price could be 1.25 times higher in a recession scenario, reflecting a shift in investment from risk assets to gold as a safe haven [10][61] Semi-Annual Outlook: Focus on Recession Pathways and Gold Stock Elasticity - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding different historical pathways to gauge gold's current cycle position, with a focus on preparing for potential recession scenarios [10][59] - Gold stocks are expected to show greater elasticity due to their extreme undervaluation and potential performance recovery as market conditions evolve [10][35]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on comprehensive testing leaders with clear internal operational turning points and high-quality leaders in sectors with clear demand recovery [5][37]. Core Insights - The testing service industry is transitioning from a high growth phase to a stable growth phase with a projected market size of approximately 487.6 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of only 4.4% [5][18]. - The number of testing institutions has decreased to 53,057, marking a 1.4% decline year-on-year, the first decline in history [5][18]. - The report highlights the impact of the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to stabilize the gross profit margins of testing institutions [5][9]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The domestic testing market experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.6% from 2017 to 2021, but is expected to slow to about 6.0% from 2022 to 2024 [11][13]. - The number of practitioners in the industry is around 1.55 million, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.76% [18]. Competitive Landscape - The report indicates that the price competition pressure is particularly evident in government-related testing (environmental and food testing), real estate and infrastructure testing, and automotive testing, where downstream demand is decreasing [11][22]. - Major companies like Guojian Group and Guangdian Measurement have seen significant declines in gross profit margins in environmental and food testing compared to 2020 [11][22]. Operational Strategies - Testing leaders are shifting from a phase of aggressive expansion to a focus on efficiency and cost control, with a reported average gross profit margin of 42.4% for 15 listed testing companies in 2024, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [11][22]. - Companies are actively controlling employee growth and capital expenditures on new equipment, indicating a strategic pivot towards internal cost reduction and business structure adjustment [11][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on comprehensive testing leaders with clear operational turning points, particularly Guangdian Measurement, and high-quality leaders in sectors with clear demand recovery, such as Su Shi Testing [5][37]. - Other companies to watch include Huace Testing, Xince Standard, and Puni Testing, which are expected to benefit from internal management reforms and market conditions [5][37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality development of the marine economy, with a focus on promoting orderly construction of offshore wind power projects. The recent meeting chaired by General Secretary Xi Jinping highlights the need for top-level design and increased policy support to accelerate the development of deep-sea offshore wind projects [2][4][17] Summary by Relevant Sections Zhejiang - Zhejiang plans six deep-sea offshore wind farm areas with an expected capacity of 28GW, receiving approval for 8GW of national management offshore wind project resource indicators in 2024. The Wenzhou Pingyang No. 1 offshore wind project is currently in the EPC general contracting bidding phase, aiming for completion and grid connection by 2026 [4][20][21] Fujian - Fujian has planned a demonstration development of 4.8GW deep-sea offshore wind projects in 2022 and initiated applications for a price demonstration project of no less than 1GW in 2023. Currently, approximately 5.3GW of projects are underway, including 400MW already connected to the grid and 700MW under construction [5][24][25] Shandong - Shandong has previously planned 20GW of deep-sea offshore wind project sites, with about 9GW currently in progress. This includes various stages of development, such as preliminary work, signed contracts, and ongoing construction [5][28] Liaoning - Liaoning's approved 6.1GW national management offshore wind project is progressing, with the first phase of the Huadian Dandong deep-sea offshore wind project (1GW) set to start construction in 2025 and be completed by 2027 [5][29][30] Hainan - Hainan has launched the "Haiyou Guanlan" floating offshore wind project, with a 1GW floating wind project planned in three phases, aiming for completion of the first phase by 2025 [5][31] Shanghai - Shanghai has planned 29.3GW of deep-sea offshore wind projects, with the first phase of 4.3GW set to start competitive bidding in 2024 [5][33] Guangdong - Guangdong has initiated a selection process for 16GW of national management offshore wind projects, with the "Mingyang Tiancheng" floating wind test platform expected to be operational by the end of 2024 [5][34] Hebei - Hebei has initiated planning for deep-sea offshore wind projects, with a total capacity of approximately 15.5GW, and aims to connect 1GW of national management offshore wind projects to the grid by 2025 [5][35] Guangxi - Guangxi has started preliminary work on 13.4GW of deep-sea offshore wind sites in 2023 and will conduct competitive consultations for 6.5GW in 2024 [5][38] Jiangsu - Jiangsu's deep-sea offshore wind projects are in the preliminary work phase, with a total of 7.3GW of projects currently undergoing preliminary work bidding [5][39] Overall Industry Outlook - The report concludes that the launch of deep-sea offshore wind projects across various provinces is expected to release installed capacity and further open up growth space for the industry [9][41]

Core Insights - The construction industry is officially entering a platform period, with infrastructure investment maintaining resilience but showing signs of decline in revenue among major state-owned enterprises [5][28][30] - The overall investment tone for infrastructure in the second half of 2025 will focus on stability, supported by proactive fiscal policies and accelerated government bond issuance [2][37] - Structural opportunities are emerging, particularly in manufacturing, power, water conservancy, and water transport sectors, driven by special government bonds [5][6] Industry Overview - The construction industry has seen a decline in total revenue for the first time in 2024, confirming a turning point for the industry [30] - The total revenue for the construction industry in 2024 was 86,962.78 billion, a decrease of 4.29% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 13.74% [30][32] - The share of real estate in GDP has been declining since its peak in 2021, while infrastructure investment has been rising but not enough to offset the decline in real estate [26][28] Investment Strategy - Long-term investment should focus on manufacturing-oriented companies like Honglu Steel Structure, while short-term strategies should prioritize high-dividend stocks and significant changes in individual companies [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities in the construction sector, particularly in areas aligned with national strategic initiatives and safety capabilities [60] State-Owned Enterprises - There is a growing divergence among state-owned construction enterprises, with only a few, such as China State Construction and China Energy Engineering, showing positive growth in Q1 2024 [7][28] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong dividend stability and growth potential, such as China Chemical Engineering and China Communications Construction [7][8] Professional Engineering and International Opportunities - The international engineering sector is expected to benefit from ongoing orders and the deepening of cooperation along the Belt and Road Initiative [8] - Companies like China National Materials and China Steel International are highlighted for their low valuations and high dividend yields, indicating strong performance potential [8] Mergers and Acquisitions - The construction industry is moving towards maturity, necessitating mergers and acquisitions to find new growth points [10] - The report anticipates that future mergers will primarily come from smaller, weaker segments of the industry, such as design and decoration [10]

Group 1 - The report identifies three main investment opportunities in the electronic industry for the second half of 2025: early-stage investment opportunities represented by AI glasses, Apple's foldable screens, humanoid robots, and domestic computing power; performance explosion investment opportunities represented by AI computing power (HDI, PTFE, CCL, NPU), semiconductor equipment, and intelligent driving; and mature-stage investment opportunities represented by panels, basic components, and analog chips [3][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of early-stage investment driven by new product launches, suggesting a focus on the supply chain of AI glasses, SOC, and optical components, as well as innovations in 3D printing and humanoid robot sensors after trade uncertainties are resolved [8][10]. - During the performance explosion phase, the report highlights the need to focus on companies that can deliver excess performance and profit growth, particularly in the AI computing power sector, with a projected compound annual growth rate of approximately 40.2% for AI server-related PCB products from 2023 to 2028 [9][53]. Group 2 - The report discusses the AI glasses market, noting that Meta's Rayban has seen explosive sales growth, with quarterly sales reaching 680,000 units in Q4 2024, driven by the integration of Meta's AI model [25][29]. - The report outlines the cost structure of AI glasses, indicating that the core processor accounts for the largest share of the BOM cost, with significant contributions from the camera and battery [31][35]. - The report suggests that the optical display is the most valuable module in AR devices, with MicroLED and diffraction waveguide being the optimal display solutions for AR glasses [33][37]. Group 3 - The report highlights the foldable screen market, projecting that if the penetration rate of foldable screens in the high-end market reaches 25%, global shipments could exceed 80 million units by 2030 [45][52]. - The report emphasizes the importance of hinges in foldable screens, noting that advancements in materials and manufacturing processes are crucial for improving hinge performance [50][51]. - The report indicates that the demand for PCBs is expected to rise significantly due to the growth of AI and high-speed network infrastructure, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.60% for server/data storage PCBs from 2023 to 2028 [54][60].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 央行发布 CIPS 新规，关注跨境支付投资机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 7 月 4 日，中国人民银行发布关于《人民币跨境支付系统业务规则（征求意见稿）》（简称《业 务规则（征求意见稿）》）公开征求意见的通知，拟进一步健全参与者管理机制，提高 CIPS 参 与者管理水平。《业务规则（征求意见稿）》的发布或将加速我国跨境金融系统建设，中国跨境 支付企业或将受益于新的跨境支付体系的建立，迎来更大的发展空间。建议关注中国跨境支付 产业链相关标的，重点关注跨境支付平台标的。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 央行发布 CIPS 新规，关注跨境支付投资机遇 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 7 月 4 日，中国人民银行发布关于《人民币 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Viewpoints - The recent issuance of standard contract templates by the National Data Bureau and the State Administration for Market Regulation aims to facilitate data circulation and transaction efficiency, indicating a potential revaluation of data elements across the entire industry chain [2][4][5] - The introduction of these templates is expected to significantly reduce negotiation costs in data transactions, potentially increasing efficiency by 30% [9] Summary by Sections Event Description - The issuance of standard contract templates includes contracts for data provision, data processing services, data fusion development, and data intermediary services, aimed at promoting efficient and compliant data circulation [4][5] Event Commentary - The standard contracts focus on four typical scenarios in data circulation, addressing data ownership, confidentiality, liability, and dispute resolution, which are expected to enhance the efficiency of data transactions [5][9] Future Outlook - Pilot cities such as Beijing, Zhejiang, and Anhui are expected to lead the application of these standard templates, which will help establish a unified national data market and lower transaction costs [9] - The overall data element industry is anticipated to enter a practical implementation phase, benefiting companies with vast data resources and strong capabilities in data processing, management, and analysis [2][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [10] Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the transportation sector, emphasizing a shift from aggressive market share competition to a focus on profitability and quality [6][18] - It highlights the gradual recovery in passenger transport during the summer season, with domestic passenger volume showing a 5% year-on-year increase [7] - The report notes the ongoing challenges in the shipping sector, particularly with oil transport rates declining due to seasonal demand fluctuations [8] Summary by Sections Anti-Involution Impact on Transportation - The central government emphasizes the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality in the transportation sector [6][18] - The report identifies investment opportunities in aviation, logistics, and port operations, suggesting a transition from price wars to value-based competition [6][18] Passenger Transport - The summer travel season has started slowly, with domestic passenger volume increasing by 5% year-on-year, while international passenger volume has risen by 16% [7] - Domestic ticket prices have faced pressure, with a 9.7% year-on-year decline in oil-inclusive ticket prices [7] - The report recommends focusing on A-share private airlines and the three major Hong Kong airlines as potential investment targets [7] Shipping Sector - Oil transport rates have decreased, with the average VLCC-TCE rate dropping by 18.2% to $24,000 per day [8] - The report notes a seasonal slowdown in demand for oil transport, while container shipping rates on the US route have also declined [8] - It highlights the potential for recovery in oil transport rates as OPEC+ continues to increase production [8] Logistics - The report indicates a resilient performance in air freight rates, with a 0.5% week-on-week increase in cargo prices at Pudong Airport [8] - The express delivery sector has shown robust growth, with a 16% year-on-year increase in the volume of postal express deliveries [8] - It emphasizes the need for companies to focus on quality and efficiency to combat the negative effects of price wars [8][62] Port Operations - The report discusses the trend of regional port integration, moving from "one port, one enterprise" to "regional collaboration" to reduce over-competition [8][66] - It notes that the profitability of the port industry has been under pressure due to overcapacity and low utilization rates [8][63]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [12] Core Insights - The Hong Kong government has launched the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0," focusing on the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), which is expected to reshape financing models in the construction industry and enhance asset liquidity and regulatory compliance [6][10] - RWA technology is systematically reconstructing the financing ecosystem of the construction industry, broadening financing channels, compressing cycles, and reducing costs [7] - The global RWA asset scale is expected to expand rapidly, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 95.69% from 2022 to 2025, reaching approximately $24.79 billion [10] Summary by Sections Hong Kong Policy and RWA Opportunities - The introduction of RWA in Hong Kong is anticipated to create new opportunities for the construction industry by enabling the digital mapping, rights confirmation, valuation, and trading of real-world assets [6][10] Financing Ecosystem Reconstruction - RWA technology is breaking traditional credit dependency, attracting global retail capital and sovereign funds, significantly expanding funding sources [7] - The asset securitization process has been reduced from 6-12 months to a few weeks, enhancing efficiency [7] - RWA technology allows small and medium enterprises to access capital that traditional financial systems often overlook [7] Market Participation and Asset Liquidity - The introduction of RWA technology lowers the trading threshold for high-value construction assets, increasing liquidity [8] - A notable project involved the tokenization of $3 billion worth of real estate assets into $500 shares, attracting widespread interest from small investors [8] Regulatory Compliance and Transparency - RWA technology creates an immutable digital mirror of assets, enhancing regulatory compliance through transparent mechanisms [9] - A case study in Syracuse, New York, demonstrated the conversion of a physical property into 13,750 tokens, ensuring authenticity and transparency in asset management [9] Global RWA Growth and Strategic Positioning - The global RWA asset scale is projected to reach $24.79 billion by July 2025, with a significant increase from $3.308 billion in 2022 [10] - Hainan Huatie has accumulated approximately 26 billion yuan in hardware-level on-chain assets, establishing a strong first-mover advantage in the RWA space [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power industry [11] Core Insights - The performance outlook for thermal power remains positive despite a decline in electricity prices and generation in Q2, driven by a significant decrease in coal prices [2][6] - Hydropower generation faces pressure due to high base effects and reduced rainfall, but some companies may achieve stable growth through optimized reservoir management [7][28] - Nuclear power generation continues to grow, but performance may vary by region due to differing impacts from market electricity prices [7][29] - Renewable energy generation (wind and solar) shows steady growth, but performance disparities exist across regions, influenced by local utilization hours [8][33] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - Key factors affecting thermal power profitability include coal prices, electricity prices, and generation volume. In Q2, coal prices decreased significantly, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price averaging 631.61 yuan/ton, down 216.85 yuan/ton year-on-year [20][21] - The overall electricity price across regions has declined, but northern regions like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang show relatively strong performance [6][17] - Despite a year-on-year decline in thermal power generation hours and prices, the significant drop in coal prices is expected to stabilize thermal power operations, particularly in northern and eastern regions [26][21] Hydropower - Hydropower generation saw a year-on-year decline of 11.02% in April-May due to high base effects and less rainfall [28][31] - Major hydropower companies with better asset quality may still achieve stable growth through effective water management strategies [28] Nuclear Power - Nuclear power generation increased by 9.57% year-on-year in April-May, supported by a larger installed capacity and fewer maintenance days [29][31] - The impact of market electricity price fluctuations varies, with companies like China Nuclear Power being less affected compared to others [29] Renewable Energy - Wind and solar generation increased by 11.87% and 11.68% year-on-year, respectively, but utilization hours have decreased [33][36] - Regional disparities in performance are evident, with eastern and central provinces showing improved wind utilization hours, while coastal provinces like Guangdong and Fujian experienced significant declines [33][39] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huadian International, Huaneng International, and China Power, as well as major hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [9][44] - For renewable energy, companies with balanced national layouts like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power are expected to perform well [9][44]