Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to recover in 2025 after three years of decline, driven by improvements in cost and supply sides [4][7][16] - The majority of profits in the black industrial chain are captured by iron ore, with profit shares of 72% for iron ore, 6% for coking coal, and 22% for steel [4][7] - The West Manganese project is seen as a potential solution to redirect profits back to the domestic steel industry [4][7] Profitability - In Q4 2025, prices for rebar, hot-rolled, iron ore, and coking coal decreased by 7.1%, 6.0%, 1.0%, and 12.5% year-on-year, respectively, with coking coal showing a significant price drop [7][18] - The decline in coking coal prices has alleviated cost pressures for steel companies, leading to a rebound in profitability [18][21] - The overall profit for the steel industry is expected to improve as demand stabilizes and costs decrease [7][21] Supply - The actual crude steel production in 2025 is expected to remain flat year-on-year, despite improved profitability encouraging production [20][21] - The supply side has not yet contracted as expected, with administrative production limits still pending implementation [16][20] - The discrepancy in production statistics indicates that crude steel output may be underestimated due to reporting practices [21][23] Demand - Steel inventory has been successfully reduced to low levels, indicating a stabilization in apparent consumption [26][27] - The demand structure shows a decline in rebar consumption by 5.4%, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled products saw increases of 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively [30][31] - Strong external demand, particularly in machinery and equipment exports, is expected to support steel demand [31][40] Outlook for 2026 - Steel demand is anticipated to remain stable, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investments as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [42][46] - The decline in new housing starts is expected to moderate, reducing the negative impact on steel demand from the real estate sector [46][48] - Global monetary and fiscal policies are expected to become more accommodative, further supporting steel demand through improved economic conditions [48][49] Policy and Regulation - The introduction of export license management for certain steel products aims to curb low-end exports and improve market stability [51][52] - The focus on "graded management" policies is expected to lead to a reduction in outdated production capacity, benefiting compliant and high-quality steel producers [52]

Core Insights - In 2025, coal prices significantly declined, leading to a return of sector profitability to the lowest levels in the past decade. However, the outlook for 2026 suggests potential demand improvement and limited supply capacity utilization, which may lead to a recovery in coal price levels [2][5][6]. - The report emphasizes that with a clear supply-demand improvement and the presence of both defensive and offensive investment opportunities, the likelihood of success for selected stocks is high. If demand is strong and coal prices improve beyond expectations, attention should be given to currently undervalued stocks with low liquidity and lower profit margins [2][7]. Industry Overview - The coal industry faced a challenging year in 2025, with thermal coal prices dropping from 855 CNY/ton in 2024 to 697 CNY/ton, an 18% decrease. The profitability of the sector fell to the 30th percentile of the past decade due to weak demand driven by warm weather and sluggish manufacturing electricity consumption [5][16]. - Coking coal prices also saw a significant decline, dropping 26% from 2024's 2022 CNY/ton to 1502 CNY/ton, with profitability at the 10th percentile of the past decade. This was primarily due to strong supply, with a 1.5% year-on-year increase in coking coal supply in the first three quarters of 2025 [5][16]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - For thermal coal in 2026, demand improvement is anticipated, with limited supply growth expected. The report identifies three key questions regarding market resilience: whether negative growth in thermal power will become the norm, if domestic supply can be controlled, and whether rising coal prices will increase imports [6][30]. - The report suggests that the central government's focus on controlling "involution" competition will continue to limit supply growth in 2026, despite some new production capacity coming online. Long-term resource depletion may also exert upward pressure on domestic coal prices [6][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report advocates for investment in the coal sector in 2026, highlighting the potential for a bottom reversal. It suggests that the timing for investment should align with capital flows, particularly in the first quarter when there is often a demand for increased allocation to dividend-paying sectors [7][30]. - Recommended stocks include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy, which are expected to benefit from a recovery in coal prices to a range of 750-800 CNY/ton. Additionally, stocks with significant growth potential and low valuations, such as Huayang Co. and Jinkong Coal Industry, are highlighted as potential targets if demand and price improvements exceed expectations [7][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the logistics industry [15] Core Insights - The logistics industry is expected to see two core trends in 2026: "Advantage Going Abroad" and "Ecosystem Restructuring," which will present significant investment opportunities. The restructuring of supply chains is anticipated to deepen, with the acceleration of Chinese industries going abroad, driving sustained demand in emerging markets. Concurrently, the domestic market's competitive order is being restructured, pushing the industry towards high-quality development [5][10][27]. Summary by Sections Cross-Border Logistics: Order Restructuring and New Opportunities - The transition from "goods going abroad" to "capital going abroad" is underway, with foreign investment becoming a core driver of logistics demand. The standardization and replicability of processes in bulk logistics and e-commerce express delivery present explosive demand potential [11][35]. E-commerce Express Delivery Going Abroad - Chinese e-commerce platforms are expanding overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, where the e-commerce penetration rates are significantly lower than in China. The report highlights that the average package volume in Southeast Asia is about 26 items per year, and in Latin America, it is approximately 11 items per year, indicating substantial growth potential [59][64]. Bulk Logistics Going Abroad - The report discusses the "infrastructure for resources" model, where bulk logistics follows Chinese mining companies into Africa. This approach is expected to drive high growth in local freight demand and rapid expansion of road assets [11][35]. Domestic E-commerce Express: Demand-Side Reform - The report notes that the previous low-price competition in the e-commerce ecosystem is being replaced by rational competition, which is expected to improve the industry landscape. Leading companies like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express are anticipated to see valuation recovery as the competitive order stabilizes [12][30]. Bulk Supply Chain: Bottoming Out and Price Recovery - The bulk supply chain industry is at a dual bottom in terms of "commodity prices" and "corporate profits," with signs of a cyclical turnaround. The report suggests that the easing of liquidity and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies will lead to improved profitability in the sector [13][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report prioritizes investment in: 1. Non-US cross-border logistics, benefiting from the expansion of Chinese industries into emerging markets, with key targets being Jitu Express and Jiayou International [10][30]. 2. Domestic e-commerce express delivery, with a focus on leading companies like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express, which are expected to see valuation adjustments [10][30]. 3. Bulk supply chains, with a recommendation to invest in companies like Xiamen Xiangyu and Xiamen Guomao, as the industry is poised for a cyclical recovery [10][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the aviation industry [13]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is expected to experience a supply-demand mismatch, with demand trends showing a determined upward trajectory while actual supply is projected to decline. This situation is anticipated to lead to a price reversal starting in 2026, with profitability gradually improving until 2030 [3][10]. - The demand structure is diverse, comprising domestic business travel, personal travel, inbound foreign tourists, and outbound Chinese tourists. The industry is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1% from 2026 to 2028, with international demand growth outpacing domestic [8][45]. - Supply constraints are primarily driven by prolonged engine maintenance cycles and geopolitical tensions affecting aircraft manufacturing, leading to a forecasted decline in actual supply growth from 2026 to 2028 [9][25]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The aviation industry operates under a multi-factor model influenced by demand, supply, oil prices, and exchange rates. The supply is predominantly controlled by overseas manufacturers, making it a seller's market with long aircraft introduction cycles [7][25]. Demand - The demand is categorized into four segments: domestic business (42%), domestic personal travel (35%), inbound foreign tourists (17%), and outbound Chinese tourists (6%). The demand is expected to show resilience against economic fluctuations, with a projected CAGR of 4.1% from 2026 to 2028 [8][45]. Supply - The supply side is constrained by extended engine maintenance cycles, which are expected to triple starting in 2025, leading to a decrease in available aircraft. The net introduction of new aircraft is anticipated to remain low, with a compound growth rate of approximately 2.6% over the next three years [9][25]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in major airlines such as China National Aviation (H+A), Spring Airlines, Huaxia Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines, as the industry prepares for a cyclical recovery driven by improving supply-demand dynamics and potential cost reductions in oil and exchange rates [3][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - On December 19, OpenAI released GPT-5.2-Codex, which is built on the general model GPT-5.2 and optimized for "Agentic Coding" scenarios, primarily targeting complex software engineering tasks. The new model has systematic improvements in long-range task execution, large-scale code changes, Windows native environment support, and network security capabilities compared to previous versions. The commercialization of large models is expected to accelerate, with current costs being a core factor limiting token consumption. Attention should be paid to the cost reduction effects of large models [2][5][9] Summary by Sections Event Description - OpenAI's GPT-5.2-Codex is specifically optimized for complex software engineering tasks, showing systematic improvements in long-range task execution, large-scale code changes, and Windows native environment support [5][6] Performance Insights - GPT-5.2-Codex introduces a native context compression mechanism, enhancing understanding and utilization efficiency for long contexts, making it more stable for long-term coding tasks. The model shows improved performance in code refactoring and migration scenarios, with enhanced reliability and consistency [9] - In terms of network security, GPT-5.2-Codex is the strongest Codex model from OpenAI, demonstrating excellent performance in various security tests, although it has not yet reached the highest risk threshold. The model's capabilities can meet legitimate protection needs while avoiding excessive risks [9] - The model's performance metrics include an accuracy of 56.4% in SWE-BenchPro and 64.0% in Terminal-Bench2.0, indicating a significant improvement in reasoning token efficiency, making it suitable for long-term coding tasks with broad commercialization prospects [9] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring future model releases and the need to focus on cost reduction effects for commercialization. The domestic AI industry chain is viewed positively, with continued recommendations for shovel stocks and major players with significant positioning advantages [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The 2025 AI Innovation Conference showcased over 50 AI innovation achievements, highlighting the growth of the domestic AI computing industry in various sectors [2][5] - The company is positioned to become a comprehensive platform for AI computing in China, leveraging its strengths in high-end CPU and DCU businesses [12][12] - The conference aimed to address industry fragmentation by promoting open ecosystems and collaborative innovation among various enterprises [12] Summary by Relevant Sections Event Description - The 2025 AI Innovation Conference took place from December 17 to 19, 2025, featuring significant AI innovations across core components, intelligent terminals, and industry applications [2][5] Event Commentary - The conference emphasized the need for open ecosystems to overcome barriers in the AI industry, such as high-end computing supply shortages and software-hardware compatibility issues [12] - The launch of the scaleX supercluster represents a key breakthrough in building large-scale intelligent computing infrastructure [12] Financial Projections - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 14,372 million, with a net profit of 4,181 million [17] - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue and profit margins over the next few years, with a net profit margin of approximately 29% by 2027 [17]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨吉利汽车（00175.HK） [Table_Title] 吉利汽车：吉利与极氪整合正式完成，回归"一 个吉利" 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月 22 日，吉利汽车宣布正式完成极氪私有化及合并相关事项交易，极氪已成为吉 利汽车全资附属公司，并于纽交所退市。此前公司公布选择股份对价的极氪持有人占合资格极 氪持有人约 70.8%，吉利汽车将为其配发及发行共计 777,228,611 股对价股份。选择或被视为 选择现金对价的极氪持有人，占合资格极氪持有人约 29.2%，吉利汽车将支付合计约 7.01 亿 美元现金。 分析师及联系人 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 吉利汽车（00175.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 吉利汽车：吉利与极氪整合正式完成，回归"一 2] 个吉利" [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% resea ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨美埃科技（688376.SH） [Table_Title] 美埃科技跟踪：洁净室设备景气提升，国际龙头 客户认证获突破 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 美埃科技主营泛半导体领域的洁净室设备和耗材等。当前，全球晶圆制造资本开支向上，带动 洁净室设备需求旺盛；公司已经通过了半导体领域多个国际著名厂商的合格供应商认证，进入 其核心国际客户供应链，海外营收占比有望提升；同时为龙头锂电企业海外扩张提供配套解决 方案。继续看好公司未来的成长机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490520070003 SAC：S0490524080004 SAC：S0490525070006 SFC：BUV415 徐科 贾少波 李博文 盛意 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 公司已取得核心国际客户的认证突破。海外产品认证需半年以上的认证周期，公司在前期市场 开拓阶段着手获取海外认证体系，目前已获得 FM、UL、CE、AHAM 等 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨通信设备Ⅲ [Table_Title] 通信行业周观点：光纤价格企稳回暖，甲骨文获 TikTok 独家云合作 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年第 51 周，通信板块下跌 0.53%，在长江一级行业中排名第 27 位；2025 年年初以来， 通信板块上涨 79.59%，在长江一级行业中排名第 1 位。光纤光缆市场，国内散纤价格企稳回 暖，同时数据中心建设拉动多模光纤需求，有望为光纤光缆行业带来结构性利润增量。海外算 力侧，甲骨文与 TikTok 美国业务达成云与安全独家合作，锁定长期稳定的云与 AI 算力需求预 期。国产算力侧，豆包大模型日均调用量突破 50 万亿；中科曙光万卡级高密度超集群落地，国 产 AI 计算开放生态正加速形成。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于海宁 SAC：S0490517110002 SFC：BUX641 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 我国散纤市场价格呈现企稳回暖态势。根据光电通信数据，25Q3 国内 G.652.D 光纤含税价格 平均价约为 24 元/芯公里，环比 25Q2 上涨 20 ...

报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 金融工程丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 杠铃策略占优，电子板块优选组合超额显著 [Table_Summary] 本周 A 股市场震荡，微盘股领涨，中证红利表现较强，双创回调明显；聚焦红利内细分板块来 看，红利价值类别相对占优。从市场表现来看，本周 A 股必选消费和金融板块反弹明显，而信 息技术与硬件和工业板块相对较弱；聚焦电子板块内部来看，显示面板相对占优，领先于其他 子赛道。策略表现上，电子板块优选增强组合跑赢电子全收益指数，周度超额约 1.57%，优势 明显。 分析师及联系人 SFC：BUT353 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 主动量化产品周报（二十） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 杠铃策略占优，电子板块优选组合超额显著 [Table_Summary2] 自 2023 年 7 月以来，长江金工团队先后推出红利精选策略、行业高胜率策略等多款主动量化 产品，为投资者跟踪市场热点、精选行业个股提供另类视角和投资选择。为了更好地洞悉策略 表现和市场动态，特推出主动量化产品周报，跟踪内容包括 ...