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行业研究|行业周报|通信设备Ⅲ:通信周观点:NV存储创新推升光互连需求,中国加速锁定频轨资源-20260114
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-14 09:44
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [10] Core Insights - The communication sector rose by 1.50% in the first week of 2026, ranking 28th among primary industries in the Yangtze River region. Year-to-date, the sector has also increased by 1.50% [2][5] - NVIDIA launched the Rubin platform at CES 2026, which integrates computing, storage, and networking, enhancing the demand for high-speed optical interconnects. This is expected to increase optical connection density and bandwidth requirements [6][8] - Chinese enterprises and institutions have applied to the ITU for over 200,000 low-orbit satellites by the end of 2025, accelerating the layout of low-orbit satellite internet and securing scarce frequency resources [7][8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the first week of 2026, the communication sector's stock performance included significant gains for companies with market capitalizations over 8 billion yuan, with Nanjing Panda (+49.1%), Tongyu Communication (+42.3%), and Dawi Technology (+35.3%) leading the gains. Conversely, Hengbao Co. (-8.1%), Cambridge Technology (-8.0%), and Dingtong Technology (-7.6%) experienced the largest declines [5] NVIDIA Rubin Platform - The Rubin platform features a modular Superchip and full liquid cooling, significantly increasing computing density. The NVL72 unit integrates 72 Rubin GPUs, providing approximately 200 PFLOPS NVFP4 computing power, with internal bandwidth of 14.4TB/s and external bandwidth of 1.6Tb/s [6] - The platform introduces a POD-level context memory system that alleviates inference KV cache bottlenecks, allowing for low-latency sharing across GPUs and nodes, with a single GPU card capable of approximately 16TB of context storage [6] - The integrated architecture of the Rubin 576 Superpod enhances optical interconnect density, with a total bandwidth of approximately 260TB/s [6] Satellite Projects in China - The report highlights that the large-scale application for low-orbit satellite constellations by Chinese entities is aimed at securing limited space resources, thus accelerating the development of low-orbit satellite internet [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across various segments: - Telecom operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom - Optical modules: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication - Liquid cooling: Yingweike - Hollow-core optical fibers: Fenghuo Communication, Hengtong Optic-Electric - Domestic computing: Runze Technology, Guanghuan New Network - AI applications: Bosijie, Heertai, Tuobang Co. - Satellite applications: Huace Navigation, Haige Communication [8]
美国 12 月 CPI 数据点评:通胀温和会带来更鸽的新主席么?
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-14 05:21
丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 通胀温和会带来更"鸽"的新主席么? 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月,美国通胀低于预期。具体来看:1)食品通胀升温,但前景可控;2)汽车、服 装通胀均回落,核心商品通胀压力有限;3)住房通胀回升,但核心服务通胀压力可控。往前看, 相较于货币政策节奏,关于美联储独立性的博弈更为重要,考虑到近期特朗普有借由对鲍威尔 的诉讼震慑新任主席之意,加之 12 月通胀持续温和为"鸽派"表态进一步扫清障碍,美联储独立 性受损的概率有所增加,美元指数下行压力较大,黄金配置价值再度凸显。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC:S0490520090001 SFC:BUX667 于博 敬成宇 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 通胀温和会带来更 2] "鸽"的新主席么? ——美国 12 月 CPI 数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2026 年 1 月 13 日,美国劳工统计局公布 2025 年 12 月份的 CPI 数据:美国 12 月 CPI ...
商业航天系列报告:3D打印:制造降本,助推商业航天产业化加速
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-14 00:49
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the 3D printing industry, particularly in its application within the commercial aerospace sector [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that 3D printing technology is a cost-reduction tool that accelerates the industrialization of commercial aerospace, driven by high demand for advanced applications [5][48]. - The growth of the 3D printing market is significantly influenced by the increasing demand for high-end applications, which is expected to lead to continuous market expansion [22][39]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Disruption of Traditional Industrial Systems - Additive manufacturing, also known as 3D printing, revolutionizes traditional manufacturing by allowing for the "free manufacturing" of parts without the need for traditional tools and multiple processing steps, thus reducing processing time and increasing material utilization [9][19]. - Various types of additive manufacturing processes, such as Powder Bed Fusion and Directed Energy Deposition, are highlighted for their efficiency and precision [14][18]. Section 2: High-End Application Demand - The global market for metal additive manufacturing equipment has seen significant growth, with sales increasing from 202 units in 2012 to 3,793 units in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 25.15% [27]. - The average price of industrial-grade additive manufacturing equipment has risen from $98,100 in 2019 to $316,900 in 2024, indicating a trend towards larger and more expensive systems [28][29]. - The aerospace and defense sectors are identified as key growth areas for 3D printing, with the market expected to reach approximately $3.379 billion in 2024 and grow to $10.48 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 17.8% [45]. Section 3: 3D Printing as a Cost-Reduction Tool - The report notes that the high costs associated with rocket launches drive the urgent need for cost reduction through 3D printing, which can significantly lower manufacturing costs and weight of components [51][55]. - 3D printing allows for the integration of complex structures, reducing the need for traditional assembly methods, thus enhancing design flexibility and reducing manufacturing time [55][63]. - The application of 3D printing in rocket engines is highlighted, with examples from SpaceX demonstrating substantial cost and weight reductions in engine components [59][72].
药监局发布行业标准立项公示,脑机接口或在医疗场景率先落地
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-14 00:39
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - On January 9, the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) announced two recommended industry standards for medical devices utilizing brain-computer interface (BCI) technology, focusing on reliability verification methods for invasive devices and design/application specifications for motor function reconstruction [2][4] - The BCI industry is transitioning from "technical exploration" to "standard implementation," with the establishment of systematic terminology and definitions for BCI medical devices, which is expected to promote standardization and large-scale application [4] - Recent developments in pricing standards for BCI services across various provinces indicate a clearer path for reimbursement, which is anticipated to enhance clinical application of this new technology [4] - The report suggests that BCI technology may achieve commercial application in medical settings first, driven by supportive policies that address both supply and demand aspects [4] Summary by Sections Industry Standards - The NMPA has published two new standards for BCI medical devices, which include methods for verifying the reliability of key components and definitions for the motor function reconstruction paradigm [4] Market Dynamics - Multiple regions have established pricing for BCI medical services, with guidelines set to take effect from April 30, 2025, which is expected to facilitate the clinical use of BCI technology [4] Policy Support - The report emphasizes that government policies are actively promoting the adoption of BCI technology in medical applications, addressing critical issues such as affordability and institutional hesitance [4]
2026年第2周计算机行业周报:智谱及MiniMax上市带动国产AI应用行情-20260113
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-13 15:23
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - The computer sector experienced a significant increase of 9.12%, ranking 4th among primary industries in the Yangtze River region, with a trading volume accounting for 7.72% of the total market [2][4][15] - The recent listings of Zhiyu and MiniMax are expected to drive investment opportunities in domestic AI applications, with MiniMax's stock surging nearly 110% on its debut, reaching a market capitalization of over HKD 105 billion [6][49] - The report suggests focusing on domestic large model manufacturers, major cloud service providers, vertical scenario agent manufacturers, and the domestic computing power industry chain [6][49] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector saw a substantial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a sixteen-day winning streak, closing at 4120.43 points, reflecting an overall increase of 3.82% [4][15] - AI-related stocks were particularly active, with notable gains in companies such as Starry Technology (+49.74%) and Zhuoyi Information (+43.33%) [17] Key Developments - NVIDIA launched the Alpamayo series of open-source AI models aimed at enhancing autonomous driving capabilities [20][22] - OpenAI introduced ChatGPT Health, a specialized version of ChatGPT designed for health and wellness applications [31][38] - China submitted a proposal to the ITU for multiple satellite constellations, totaling 203,000 satellites, indicating a strategic acceleration in the commercial space sector [41][42] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of the recent IPOs of Zhiyu and MiniMax, which may reshape the industry landscape and capital market pricing logic, shifting the focus from parameter competition to profitability and implementation efficiency [49][60] - Investors are encouraged to monitor developments in the AI application sector, particularly in relation to large model manufacturers and cloud service providers [6][49]
海外热点冷思考系列 2:美联储独立性下降,长端利率就能下了吗?
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-13 11:25
Group 1: Economic and Political Context - The U.S. Department of Justice plans to sue Powell, driven by immense election pressure from the Trump administration to lower interest rates ahead of the midterm elections[2] - High credit card and mortgage rates are limiting U.S. consumer spending, with polls indicating significant election pressure on the Trump administration[8] Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - The Trump administration's actions may counteract its goal of lowering medium- and long-term interest rates, as rate cuts could increase inflation risks and steepen the yield curve[2] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised, leading to decreased attractiveness of U.S. assets and downward pressure on the dollar index[2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Increased expectations for interest rate cuts could benefit commodities like copper and aluminum, as well as emerging market equities[2] - The current U.S. real interest rate is approaching the natural rate, suggesting potential for significant economic growth if rates are cut, but also posing risks for re-inflation[8]
流动性和机构行为周度观察:存单利率或有上行压力,可关注调整后的配置价值-20260113
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-13 10:12
丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 存单利率或有上行压力,可关注调整后的配置 价值——流动性和机构行为周度观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 1 月 5 日-1 月 9 日,央行短期逆回购小幅净回笼资金,3M 买断式逆回购投放 11000 亿元、等量续作。2026 年 1 月 5 日-11 日,政府债净缴款规模较高,同业存单到期收益率小幅 提升,银行间债券市场杠杆率均值提升。2026 年 1 月 12 日-18 日,政府债预计净缴款-931 亿 元,同业存单到期规模约为 8085 亿元。2026 年 1 月 9 日,测算中长期、短期利率风格纯债基 久期中位数周度环比分别下降 0.21 年、提升 0.18 年。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC:S0490524080003 SAC:S0490525080001 SFC:BVN394 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 存单利率或有上行压力,可关注调整后的配置 2] 价值——流动性和机构行为周度观察 [Table_Summary2] 资金面 ...
半钢胎专题:拐点或至,乘势而飞
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-13 09:19
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Viewpoints - The EU's anti-dumping measures against Chinese semi-steel tires are expected to be implemented by mid-2026, potentially leading to a demand shift of approximately 8.7 million units overseas. Current Chinese tire manufacturers have an overseas semi-steel tire capacity of only 17.6 million units per year, which is insufficient to meet the combined demand of approximately 25.1 million units from Europe and the US [3][10][76] - The semi-steel tire segment is characterized by strong consumer attributes, making it the most profitable category in the tire industry. The global demand for semi-steel tires is around 1.6 billion units annually, with an average price of $71 per tire, resulting in a market size of $114 billion [6][25] - Chinese semi-steel tire production capacity is projected to reach 82 million units per year by 2024, with an annual output of approximately 64 million units, accounting for about 40% of global supply. Exports constitute about 52% of China's semi-steel tire production [7][41] Summary by Sections EU Anti-Dumping Measures - The EU has initiated anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against Chinese semi-steel tires, with a final decision expected by June 2026. In 2024, the EU is projected to consume approximately 400 million semi-steel tires, with 90 million units imported from China, representing 60% of non-EU imports [8][59][60] Overseas Expansion of Chinese Tire Companies - Chinese tire manufacturers are increasingly establishing overseas production capacities, with approximately 22.2 million units per year already operational and an additional 28.7 million units planned. The EU's anti-dumping measures are expected to create a capacity gap that will take time to fill [9][68] - The US imports about 164 million semi-steel tires annually, with significant competition expected between the EU and the US for semi-steel tire capacity. The demand from the EU for 8.7 million units per year is likely to shift from China to overseas production [9][71] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on opportunities arising from both volume and price increases. Companies with greater marginal increases in overseas capacity and a higher proportion of total capacity in overseas production are expected to benefit more. Recommended companies include Senqilin, Sailun Tire, Zhongce Rubber, and Linglong Tire [10][76]
低轨卫星行业加速,陶瓷管壳有望快速扩容
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-13 09:14
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [12] Core Insights - The low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite industry is accelerating, with the ceramic shell for T/R components expected to expand rapidly due to the high added value of the products and broad prospects [6][8] - The global active satellite count is projected to exceed 12,000 by July 2025, with LEO satellites accounting for 67.5% (over 8,100 satellites) [6][18] - The global satellite internet market is expected to reach $30 billion by 2025, continuing to grow at a high rate [6][18] - The domestic market for ceramic shells used in low Earth orbit satellites is projected to reach 3.8 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 94.4% from 2024 to 2030 [8][42] Summary by Sections Low Earth Orbit Satellite Industry - The satellite internet is recognized as a new generation of communication infrastructure, providing ubiquitous network services globally [6][18] - Countries are actively deploying LEO satellite communication systems, with notable players including SpaceX, OneWeb, and domestic companies like China Star Network and Kuiper [6][19] T/R Components and Radar Technology - T/R components are critical for satellite signal transmission and reception, with a significant portion of the cost attributed to these components in radar systems [7][30] - Active phased array radar systems, which utilize T/R components, are becoming mainstream due to their advantages in speed, anti-jamming capabilities, and multi-target tracking [7][30] Market Potential for Ceramic Shells - The ceramic shell's value in a single low Earth orbit satellite is estimated at around 1.1 million yuan, contributing to the overall satellite manufacturing cost [8][42] - The market for ceramic shells is expected to grow significantly, driven by advancements in technology and increasing demand for satellite communication systems [8][42] Company Spotlight: Guoci Materials - Guoci Materials is a leading player in high-end ceramic materials, focusing on the development and production of various ceramic products, including those for satellite applications [9][51] - The company has established a comprehensive innovation system and aims to become a leading platform in the precision ceramic industry [9][51]
新增 20 万颗卫星申请,我国太空战略提速进行 2] 时
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-13 09:08
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 新增 20 万颗卫星申请,我国太空战略提速进行 时 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 1 月 9 日消息,据国际电信联盟(ITU)官网显示,2025 年最后一周,我国向 ITU 申报了多个 卫星星座计划,申报总规模达 20.3 万颗.此次申报涵盖 14 个卫星星座,其中 CTC-1 和 CTC-2 两个星座各自申请 96,714 颗,成为本轮申报的主力。此次大规模申请或反映了我国在太空领 域的战略提速,后续太空资源竞争仍有望加速,进而惠及全产业链。建议关注商业航天产业链 各环节的核心供应商,重点关注 1)我国商业航天龙头企业供应商;2)我国卫星组装企业及核 心零部件供应商;3)卫星应用相关标的。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC:S0490520030004 SAC:S0490525070002 SFC:BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 新增 20 万颗卫星 ...