丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 新增 20 万颗卫星申请，我国太空战略提速进行 时 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 1 月 9 日消息，据国际电信联盟（ITU）官网显示，2025 年最后一周，我国向 ITU 申报了多个 卫星星座计划，申报总规模达 20.3 万颗.此次申报涵盖 14 个卫星星座，其中 CTC-1 和 CTC-2 两个星座各自申请 96,714 颗，成为本轮申报的主力。此次大规模申请或反映了我国在太空领 域的战略提速，后续太空资源竞争仍有望加速，进而惠及全产业链。建议关注商业航天产业链 各环节的核心供应商，重点关注 1）我国商业航天龙头企业供应商；2）我国卫星组装企业及核 心零部件供应商；3）卫星应用相关标的。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 新增 20 万颗卫星 ...

- The report primarily focuses on the commercial aerospace industry, highlighting its strategic importance and the development of its ecosystem, including satellite manufacturing, rocket launches, and downstream applications[9][15][28] - The "Guozheng Commercial Satellite Communication Industry Index" (980018.CNI) is introduced as a quantitative model reflecting the performance of A-share companies in the satellite communication industry, covering the entire value chain from satellite manufacturing to communication services[10][61][80] - The index's construction methodology emphasizes its focus on the aerospace and electronics sectors, with a concentrated weight distribution in core industry segments such as aerospace equipment, communication devices, and semiconductors[10][61][66] - The "Satellite ETF (159206)" is a passive index fund designed to closely track the performance of the Guozheng Satellite Communication Index, employing a full replication strategy to minimize tracking error and deviation[11][83] - The ETF's performance metrics include an annualized tracking error target of less than 2% and a daily tracking deviation of less than 0.2%, with a fund size of 117.69 billion yuan as of January 9, 2026[11][83] - The Guozheng Satellite Communication Index has demonstrated superior returns compared to broader market indices, with a year-to-date return of 18.96% and a one-year return of 122.94% as of January 9, 2026[80][81] - The index's constituent stocks include leading companies in aerospace equipment, electronic manufacturing, and semiconductor design, reflecting a balanced mix of large-cap leaders and growth-oriented mid-cap firms[67][68][70]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong upward trend in the first week of 2026, benefiting from the "deposit migration" effect, which is expected to provide ample liquidity for insurance and wealth management institutions[1] - Global funds are likely to diversify away from high-valued US stocks due to RMB appreciation and geopolitical fluctuations, with foreign capital expected to shift towards A-shares and Hong Kong stocks[1] Group 2: Wealth Management Insights - As of Q3 2025, the wealth management scale reached approximately CNY 32.13 trillion, with equity products only accounting for about CNY 700 billion, or 0.22%[5] - The low proportion of equity products is attributed to constraints on the liability side, low customer risk appetite, and the need for improved investment research capabilities[5] Group 3: Insurance Fund Allocation - By Q3 2025, insurance fund management balances grew by approximately CNY 4.2 trillion, with equity holdings increasing by about CNY 1.2 trillion, representing around 28% of the total increase[6] - It is projected that insurance funds will contribute over CNY 1.2 trillion to the capital market in 2026, driven by new accounting standards and a shift towards high-dividend equity assets[22] Group 4: Foreign Capital Trends - In Q4 2025, northbound funds increased their holdings in over 1,600 stocks, with significant increases in the electronics and chemical sectors, while household appliances saw continuous reductions[8] - The total market value of northbound holdings was approximately CNY 2.59 trillion by the end of Q4 2025, remaining stable compared to Q3 2025[54]

- The report analyzes the performance of industries with continuous upward or downward trends over multiple years, using the Changjiang Level-1 Industry Index as the statistical object, covering data from 2005 to 2025[8][15] - Industries that experienced continuous growth for 2-4 years showed negative average returns in the following year, ranging from -1.02% to -6.30%, with a probability of positive returns between 28% and 40%, indicating difficulty in maintaining positive returns after prolonged growth[12][15][20] - Industries that experienced continuous declines for 2-4 years showed positive average returns in the following year, ranging from 7.02% to 18.03%, with a probability of further declines between 26% and 44%, suggesting a recovery opportunity after significant declines[12][15][20] - Industries with continuous positive excess returns relative to the Wind All-A Index for 2-4 years had a low probability (11%-35%) of achieving positive excess returns in the following year, with negative average excess returns, indicating that strong relative performance is difficult to sustain[12][17][21] - Industries with continuous negative excess returns relative to the Wind All-A Index for 2-4 years had a high probability (61%-65%) of continuing negative excess returns in the following year, with negative average excess returns, suggesting that weak relative performance is hard to reverse[12][17][21] - The report highlights a mean-reversion characteristic in absolute returns, where industries tend to weaken after prolonged growth and recover after prolonged declines, aligning with the market principle of "what goes up must come down, and what goes down must come up"[12][16][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the home appliance industry is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The 2026 CES highlighted advancements in smart home cleaning robots, with Chinese companies leading the upgrade of products. The focus remains on enhancing cleaning effectiveness, efficiency, range, and operational costs [2][9][64] - The report emphasizes the technological upgrades in various segments: - For vacuum robots, improvements include larger rollers and stronger suction, enhancing cleaning efficiency and reducing operational costs [6][20] - For lawn mowers, upgrades focus on large area cutting, obstacle avoidance, and edge cutting capabilities, with Ninebot launching nine new products at CES 2026 [7][45] - For pool robots, the integration of AI and navigation features is becoming more prevalent, with companies like Yuan Ding and Xing Mai innovating in this space [8][53] Summary by Sections Vacuum Robots - The evolution of vacuum robots is centered on cleaning effectiveness, efficiency, range, and operational costs. Notable products include the G-Rover from Roborock, which features a unique leg structure allowing it to navigate stairs and complex environments [20][25] - Other brands like Ecovacs and Dreame are also enhancing their products with longer rollers and improved cleaning technologies, significantly increasing cleaning efficiency [29][34] Lawn Mowers - The lawn mower segment is seeing significant technological advancements, particularly in large area cutting and obstacle avoidance. Ninebot's new product lineup includes models designed for various terrains and cutting needs [7][46] - The report notes that the European market is experiencing explosive growth, while the U.S. market is slower due to various factors [7][45] Pool Robots - The development of pool robots is aligning with the more mature cleaning robot segments, incorporating advanced AI and navigation technologies. Companies are introducing features like self-cleaning bases and enhanced obstacle avoidance [53][59] - Yuan Ding's Scuba V3 Ultra and Xing Mai's Beatbot AquaSense X are examples of innovative products that enhance cleaning efficiency and user experience [55][57] Investment Recommendations - The report expresses optimism regarding the growth potential of companies like Ninebot, Roborock, and Ecovacs, driven by technological advancements and market penetration opportunities [9][64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January 12th to January 18th, the planned issuance of local bonds is 702.01 million yuan, including 227.56 million yuan of new bonds (0.00 million yuan of new general bonds and 227.56 million yuan of new special bonds) and 474.45 million yuan of refinancing bonds (85.69 million yuan of refinancing general bonds and 388.76 million yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5]. - From January 5th to January 11th, the actual issuance of local bonds is 1176.64 million yuan, including 884.34 million yuan of new bonds (10.00 million yuan of new general bonds and 874.34 million yuan of new special bonds) and 292.30 million yuan of refinancing bonds (0.00 million yuan of refinancing general bonds and 292.30 million yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance 3.1.1 Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure - From January 5th to January 11th, the net supply of local bonds is 1147 million yuan; from January 12th to January 18th, the forecast net supply of local bonds is 639 million yuan [18]. - The issuance situation of different types of bonds from January 5th to January 11th and January 12th to January 18th is presented in figures [14][18]. 3.1.2 Comparison of Planned Issuance and Actual Issuance - The planned and actual issuance amounts of new bonds, new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds are compared, and relevant data are shown in figures [16][20]. 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply 3.2.1 New Bond Issuance Progress - As of January 11th, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 0.13%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds is 1.75% [28][29]. 3.2.2 Refinancing Bond Net Supply - As of January 11th, the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities in the current year is presented in figures [28][29]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details 3.3.1 Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics - As of January 11th, the fifth round of the second batch of special refinancing bonds has a total planned issuance of 20000.00 million yuan, and the fifth round of the third batch has a total planned issuance of 511.06 million yuan, with an additional 218.76 million yuan newly disclosed this week. The top - three regions in terms of the disclosed scale of the fifth round of the third batch are Shandong (256.09 million yuan), Ningbo (114.74 million yuan), and Hubei (104.02 million yuan) [7]. - The issuance statistics of special refinancing bonds from different rounds are presented in figures [34]. 3.3.2 Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics - As of January 11th, the total planned issuance of special new special bonds in 2026 is 33.30 million yuan, and since 2023, the total planned issuance is 25546.72 million yuan. The top - three regions in terms of the disclosed scale are Jiangsu (2440.35 million yuan), Hubei (1377.69 million yuan), and Henan (1325.34 million yuan). The top - two regions in terms of the 2026 disclosed scale are Shandong (22.30 million yuan) and Zhejiang (11.00 million yuan) [7]. - The issuance statistics of special new special bonds from 2023 to 2026 are presented in figures [37]. 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading 3.4.1 Primary - Secondary Spread - The primary and secondary spreads of local bonds are presented in figures, showing the spreads and their changes on different terms on January 4th and January 11th, 2026 [41]. 3.4.2 Regional Secondary Spread - The regional secondary spreads of local bonds in different regions from October 2025 to January 2026 are presented in tables [42]. 3.5 New Special Bond Investment Directions 3.5.1 Project Investment Direction Monthly Statistics - The investment directions of new special bonds are presented in figures, with the latest month's statistics only considering the investment directions of issued new bonds [44].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is currently experiencing a phase of "supply optimization and weak demand recovery," with inventory destocking ongoing in Q4. Short-term price recovery is expected due to controlled supply from Moutai, with attention on Spring Festival sales and inventory movement [2][5] - The demand for mass-market products is expected to show marginal improvement, with January anticipated to see a strong start due to delayed Spring Festival stocking [2][5] - The report recommends focusing on products with strong seasonal effects and high performance realization, particularly in sectors like leisure snacks, restaurant supply chains, condiments, soft drinks, and dairy products [4][26] Summary by Sections Spring Festival Stocking Strategy - The Spring Festival stocking strategy should focus on products with strong seasonal effects and high performance realization. The timing of the Spring Festival can impact the performance of listed companies, especially in years when it falls later in the calendar [4][15] - Products with clear gifting scenarios and positive market sentiment in specific segments are prioritized for opportunity selection. The continuation of the post-Spring Festival market will depend on actual sales and positive Q1 performance feedback [4][26] CPI Trends - The food CPI has been strengthening since December, surpassing service and overall CPI. This trend is supported by supply clearing in certain items and seasonal demand recovery, which together bolster price improvements [32][34] - The CPI-PPI differential remains positive, supporting the continued improvement in profitability for food manufacturing companies [37] Market Performance Review - Since the beginning of 2026, the food and beverage index has increased by 2.21%, lagging behind the CSI 300, which rose by 2.79%. The performance of the liquor sector has remained stable, while the dairy sector has seen declines [6][40] - Soft drinks and leisure snacks have led the market in terms of growth related to Spring Festival stocking, while dairy and meat products have experienced declines [6][40] Industry Dynamics - The industry is increasingly focused on value deepening and structural optimization. Companies are prioritizing supply-demand balance, healthy pricing systems, and profit structure improvements rather than merely pursuing sales growth [7][46] - Food safety and supply chain resilience remain foundational to brand trust, highlighted by recent global recalls and supply chain disruptions [7][46]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qilu Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - Qilu Bank's stock price has undergone sufficient valuation adjustment since Q3 2025, influenced by market trading factors. The bank is entering a new three-year planning cycle in 2026, with management focusing on stable and sustainable growth. In the current macroeconomic environment, high-quality city commercial banks with stable growth capabilities are considered scarce assets. The bank is expected to achieve a trillion-scale asset size in the new three-year plan [5][11] - Loan growth is projected to be between 13% and 15% from 2025 to 2027, with a continuous increase in loan market share. Net interest income is expected to drive revenue growth. The long-term growth path is clear, and there is room for valuation recovery in PB-ROE [11][20] - The bank's dividend yield is expected to be 4.65% in 2025 and 5.20% in 2026, meeting the needs of long-term investors [11] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Qilu Bank has a long-standing management philosophy focused on stable and sustainable growth. The bank's asset scale has achieved an annual compound growth rate of 16.2% over the past three years, with profit growth at 16.9%, ranking among the top in the banking sector. The bank aims to reach a trillion in assets by 2027, requiring an annual growth rate of at least 12.2% over the next two years [11][20] Loan and Revenue Growth - The bank's loan growth is expected to be between 13% and 15% from 2025 to 2027. As of mid-2025, Qilu Bank's loan market share in Shandong province is 2.3%, indicating significant room for improvement compared to other leading city commercial banks. The bank's credit structure is primarily focused on state-owned enterprises, with retail loan demand remaining weak [11][20] Asset Quality - Qilu Bank's asset quality is at its best since its listing, with a continuous decline in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios and a net NPL generation rate dropping to a historical low of 0.31% (annualized) in the first half of 2025. The bank's credit cost is expected to decrease further, allowing for double-digit profit growth in 2026 [11][20] Valuation and Dividend - The bank's PB valuation is projected to be 0.71x in 2025 and 0.65x in 2026, indicating undervaluation relative to a 12% ROE. The bank may slightly increase its dividend payout ratio in 2025 to offset the dilution effect of convertible bonds, with expected dividend yields of 4.65% and 5.20% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [11][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - The CES 2026 and Alibaba Cloud's intelligent hardware exhibition showcased the progress of AI deployment at the edge, indicating that edge AI may become a new paradigm for AI implementation [2][4] - As AI large models continue to iterate, the report suggests that AI deployment will be the core of the next phase of the artificial intelligence industry, with edge AI benefiting from improved model performance and penetration rates [2][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of the entire edge AI industry chain, particularly focusing on edge AI model and application vendors [11] Summary by Sections Event Description - The CES 2026 took place from January 6 to 9 in Las Vegas, while the Alibaba Cloud intelligent hardware exhibition occurred from January 8 to 11 in Shenzhen, highlighting the current advancements in edge AI [4] Market Trends - Hardware forms are breaking traditional boundaries, with edge AI expected to become a key platform for AI deployment. The trend shows AI increasingly embedded in wearable devices, personal terminals, and computers, evolving into intelligent assistants for users [11] - Major companies like Alibaba, ByteDance, and JD.com are focusing on consumer-grade hardware, indicating a strategic positioning in the edge AI market [11] Market Size and Growth - The Chinese AI hardware market (excluding AI phones and cars) is projected to reach 1,102 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4%. The market is expected to maintain rapid growth over the next five years, driven by traditional appliances, smart personal devices, education, and smart home hardware [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - The wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in Q4 2025 are expected to be approximately 8.76 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14%. The profitability in Q4 may show differentiation compared to the same period last year, with expectations for a quarter-on-quarter improvement [2][5] - The revenue from automotive parts is anticipated to grow steadily quarter-on-quarter, but profitability may face pressure due to factors such as raw material costs and exchange rates [2][5] - The wholesale sales of heavy trucks are projected to be 314,000 units in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [2][5] - The overall sales of buses are expected to see a significant quarter-on-quarter increase during the peak season, with sales of large and medium buses reaching 44,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.2% [2][5] - The total sales of motorcycles are estimated to be around 4.73 million units in Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.0% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.2% [2][6] Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - Q4 2025 wholesale sales are expected to be about 8.76 million units, down 1% year-on-year but up 14% quarter-on-quarter. New energy vehicle sales are projected at 4.84 million units, up 13% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter [5] Automotive Parts - Revenue is expected to grow steadily quarter-on-quarter, but profitability may be pressured by raw material and exchange rate factors [5] Heavy Trucks - Q4 2025 wholesale sales are projected at 314,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 43.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [5] Buses - Large and medium bus sales are expected to reach 44,000 units in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.2% [5] Motorcycles - Total motorcycle sales are estimated at 4.73 million units in Q4 2025, reflecting an 11.0% year-on-year increase but a 6.2% quarter-on-quarter decrease [6]