Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The recent performance of the company has been weak, with valuations dropping to the bottom range. At this point, the company is considered to have a sufficient margin of safety and highlighted dividend value, leading to a continued strong recommendation for investment in the company [5][7]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 1,558.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.20%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 38.182 billion yuan, down 3.83% year-on-year. It is expected that the company will continue to face slight pressure throughout the year [7]. - The total new contracts signed for 2025 are projected to be 4,545.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0%. The new contracts in the construction industry are expected to reach 4,151.0 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year [7]. - The company is a pilot unit for the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's market value management assessment, consistently leading in dividend payout rates among central state-owned enterprises. Despite a projected decline in net profit for 2024, the company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from 21% to 24%, maintaining a stable dividend per share of 0.27 yuan, which corresponds to a current dividend yield of 5.4% [7]. Market Position - The company is the largest construction enterprise in China by scale and market capitalization, and it is a component of major indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend [12]. - The company's valuation has dropped to historical lows, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.43 and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 4.7, both below the historical 25th percentile, indicating a strong margin of safety [12]. - The company’s subsidiaries, including China Overseas Property, have a combined sales volume that exceeds that of the leading competitor, Poly Developments, positioning the company to benefit from real estate policy changes [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from increased fiscal spending and policy support in 2026, which is seen as a pivotal year for the "14th Five-Year Plan." The central economic work conference has emphasized stabilizing investment as a key task for 2026, with expectations for infrastructure demand to rise due to increased fiscal spending on major projects [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [15] Core Insights - The report indicates that the company maintains its leading position in the industry during periods of volatility, undergoing deep reforms to enhance product and service capabilities, establishing a long-term competitive edge based on open and transparent supplier relationships [5][13] - As store closures and adjustments come to an end, the company has entered a phase of refined and detailed operations, which is expected to boost revenue and release profit elasticity [5][13] Industry Overview - From 2020 to 2025, the supermarket industry faces challenges due to weak demand and intensified competition, leading to declining revenues. The core issue is to boost income, with the industry currently in a loss-reduction phase [9][23] - Online retail penetration is stabilizing between 25%-30%, and rental levels for shops in major cities are expected to decrease by over 20% from 2021 to 2025 [9][32] - The average store efficiency for supermarkets is projected to be 27.77 million yuan in 2024, and the average employee efficiency is expected to be 1.25 million yuan, reflecting significant improvements in operational capabilities [9][32] Company Review - The company is a leading domestic hypermarket that has deeply participated in the rapid transformation of the retail industry over the past 20 years, with a solid foundation in management experience and brand recognition [10][39] - The company has completed its national layout, with strong brand awareness and a robust supply chain, and is now focusing on quality retail reforms to adapt to the inevitable trend of shifting from product "richness" to "value for money" [10][63] Quality Reform - The company is undergoing a quality retail reform initiated in May 2024, which includes internal promotions and external recruitment to quickly build a core management team [11][40] - The company aims to enhance its private label development, targeting a penetration rate of 30%-40% for its private brands by 2025, focusing on safety and health in ingredients and processes [12][58] Investment Recommendation - The report expresses optimism about the company's growth potential through its quality-focused transformation, expecting improvements in revenue stability and profitability from 2025 to 2027, with projected EPS of -0.24, 0.07, and 0.15 yuan respectively [13][15]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨纺织品、服装与奢侈品 [Table_Title] 毛价周期再起，纺企盈利弹性如何演绎？— —长江纺服周专题 26W04 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期，纺织服装行业部分原材料价格呈现分化走势，其中羽绒及羊毛价格明显回升，而外棉和 涤纶价格仍处低位震荡。我国作为全球主要羊毛消费国，对澳大利亚进口依赖较高，澳毛价格 波动对国内毛纺企业盈利及股价影响显著。通过复盘澳毛价格走势可以发现毛价上涨通常受需 求修复与供给收缩共同驱动，周期多为 4-6 年。在当前供给偏紧、需求边际改善的背景下，毛 价具备稳中向上的基础，并有望通过低价库存消化与顺价能力改善毛纺企业盈利能力，进一步 对相关公司的对股价形成积极催化。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 魏杏梓 陈信志 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524020003 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 纺织品、服装与奢侈品 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 毛价周期再起，纺企盈利弹性如 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.35 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.6%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be 1.5 billion yuan, up 17.0% year-on-year [2][5]. - The company benefits from a diverse customer base and the continuous conversion of new orders, leading to steady revenue growth. With ongoing supply chain optimization and improved operational efficiency, the company's profitability is expected to enhance [2][11]. - The company plans to extend its advantages in R&D, products, technology, high-end manufacturing, and customer relationships from the automotive sector into the robotics field, establishing a dual-track strategy of "Automotive + Robotics Tier 1" to unlock new growth points [2][11]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 60.919 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 10.748 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 18% [16]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is 1.35 billion yuan, with projections of 1.76 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.13 billion yuan in 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 33.5X, 25.7X, and 21.1X respectively [11][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - The company's electricity generation for Q4 2025 reached 1,122.50 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.92%. However, the average on-grid electricity price decreased to 0.414 yuan/kWh, down by 0.021 yuan/kWh compared to the previous year. The significant increase in installed capacity supported stable growth in electricity generation, but the decline in electricity prices may limit revenue growth in Q4. Overall, the company's operational performance for the entire year remains positive due to continuous improvement in the first three quarters [2][6][13] Summary by Relevant Sections Electricity Generation and Pricing - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a total electricity generation of 1,122.50 billion kWh, up 4.92% year-on-year. The average on-grid electricity price was 0.414 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.021 yuan/kWh year-on-year. The total electricity generation for 2025 was 4,674.65 billion kWh, reflecting a 1.74% increase year-on-year, with an average on-grid price of 400.66 yuan/MWh [2][6] Operational Performance - The company added 764.4 MW of thermal power capacity in 2025, with 298 MW added in Q4. The thermal power generation in Q4 was 924.63 billion kWh, a 6.98% increase year-on-year. Hydropower generation decreased by 18.49% year-on-year to 97.80 billion kWh due to lower water inflow. Wind power generation increased by 2.81% to 55.52 billion kWh, while solar power generation surged by 41.25% to 44.55 billion kWh [13][6] Cost and Profitability - The coal price in Q4 showed a slight recovery but remained lower year-on-year, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price averaging 765.44 yuan/ton, down 57.15 yuan/ton year-on-year. The overall cost structure is expected to improve, but the rising coal prices may pressure profitability in Q4. Despite this, the company's operational performance for the year is still projected to be positive due to improvements in the first three quarters [13][6] Future Growth and Dividends - The company is set to begin operations at the Dadu River hydropower stations, which have a total capacity of 3.52 million kW, enhancing growth certainty. The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2025 to 2027, with a minimum dividend of 0.22 yuan per share, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 5.02% based on expected 2025 earnings [13][6]

Core Insights - The hydrogen industry in China is experiencing steady growth in both supply and demand, with applications expanding across various sectors. The country is the largest hydrogen producer globally, with an expected production of approximately 36.5 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [4][17]. - The economic viability of hydrogen energy is improving due to declining green electricity costs, inclusion in the CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) program, and technological advancements in cost reduction. The transition from technical cost reduction to large-scale cost reduction is anticipated during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4][8]. - The hydrogen industry chain, including production, storage, transportation, and application, is developing rapidly, warranting attention [4][9]. Supply and Demand Status - China's hydrogen production is projected to reach 36.5 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.7% over the past five years. The global hydrogen production is expected to be nearly 100 million tons, growing by approximately 2.7% year-on-year [17][24]. - Hydrogen is primarily used in traditional industrial applications, with emerging sectors like transportation and metallurgy showing a compound growth rate of about 7.1%, significantly higher than the overall industry growth [8][21]. Policy Framework - Hydrogen energy has been recognized as a crucial component of the new energy system, with significant emphasis from top leadership. The formal inclusion of hydrogen in the energy category by the Energy Law in November 2024 is expected to enhance the industry's development [8][30]. - The government has set a phased target for 2027, focusing on the high-quality development of energy equipment, which will guide the hydrogen sector [30][34]. Cost Reduction Pathways - Multiple factors are contributing to the cost reduction of hydrogen, including: 1. Decreasing costs of green electricity, with projected costs for photovoltaic power dropping to 0.15-0.20 yuan/kWh, allowing green hydrogen costs to fall to 10.36-13.22 yuan/kg [8][40]. 2. Inclusion of electrolysis water hydrogen in the CCER program, which can shorten the investment payback period from 9.21 years to 8.62 years [8][46]. 3. Technological advancements leading to significant cost reductions in electrolyzers and fuel cells, with average prices decreasing by 11%-24% over recent years [8][49]. 4. Increased subsidies and pilot projects across the entire industry chain, which are expected to further drive down costs [8][9]. Industry Chain Development - The hydrogen production segment is expected to see a significant increase in electrolyzer bidding, with projections of over 4.5 GW by 2025, compared to 1.5 GW and 1.2 GW in 2023 and 2024, respectively [9]. - Storage and transportation remain bottlenecks, with ongoing efforts to develop a large-scale, low-cost, and safe hydrogen transport system [9][19]. - By the end of 2025, the number of hydrogen refueling stations in China is expected to increase by approximately 2.6 times compared to 2020, with a high proportion of comprehensive energy stations [9][20]. Investment Strategy - The report highlights several investment opportunities in the hydrogen sector, including companies that empower shareholders, pure hydrogen-related companies, and those with stable main businesses that view hydrogen as a potential growth point. Notable companies include Ice Wheel Environment, Yihua Tong, and Longjing Environmental Protection [10].

行业研究丨深度报告丨机械 [Table_Title] 矿山机械系列二：周期景气与全球化共振，"设 备+后市场+资源品"布局打开成长空间 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 矿山机械设备空间广阔、利润可观，是装备制造中的优质赛道。从需求侧来看，资源品价格、 矿石品位、资本密集度影响行业需求总量，在宏观宽松、供给受限及需求扩张背景下，资源品 价格有望维持强势，当前矿山机械行业景气有望加速上行，叠加新能源、无人化渗透率提升有 望贡献增量。从供给侧来看，外资龙头格局集中，出海有望成为我国矿机企业成长机遇。近年 来我国矿山机械出海蓬勃发展，龙头企业全球竞争力日益提升，"设备+后市场+资源品"业务 并进，看好我国矿机企业的成长性。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵智勇 臧雄 曹小敏 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490518070005 SAC：S0490521050001 SFC：BRP550 SFC：BVO790 王硕 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 19 - 23, 2026, the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase had a net injection of 22.95 billion yuan, the treasury cash fixed - deposit matured at 15 billion yuan, and the January MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan. The government bond net payment scale increased, the inter - bank certificate of deposit (CD) maturity yield declined, and the average inter - bank bond market leverage ratio decreased slightly during January 19 - 25, 2026. From January 26 - February 1, 2026, the government bond is expected to have a net payment of 51.5 billion yuan, and the CD maturity scale is about 42.84 billion yuan. On January 23, 2026, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased by 0.62 years and 0.26 years week - on - week respectively [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Funds - **Central bank operations**: From January 19 - 23, 2026, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 22.95 billion yuan, the treasury cash fixed - deposit matured at 15 billion yuan, and the MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan. In total, the central bank's outright reverse repurchase and MLF had a combined net injection of 100 billion yuan in January 2026 [5]. - **Fund interest rates**: From January 19 - 23, 2026, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.37% and 1.43% respectively, up 0.6 basis points and basically unchanged compared with January 12 - 16, 2026. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.49% and 1.54% respectively, down 1.6 basis points and 1.4 basis points compared with January 12 - 16, 2026. The main influencing factor for the week was the high tax payment scale. Future factors disturbing the funds include high government bond net payment, funds entering the cross - month stage, and the continuous "good start" of bank credit consuming bank excess reserves [6]. - **Government bond net financing**: From January 19 - 25, 2026, the government bond net financing was about 24.65 billion yuan, an increase of about 29.5 billion yuan compared with January 12 - 18, 2026. From January 26 - February 1, 2026, the government bond net financing is expected to be about 51.503 billion yuan [7]. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity yield**: As of January 23, 2026, the 1M and 3M CD maturity yields were 1.4950% and 1.5750% respectively, down 2.5 basis points and 2.0 basis points compared with January 16, 2026. The 1Y CD maturity yield was 1.5950%, down 3.0 basis points compared with January 16, 2026. The decline in CD interest rates may be due to the slight warming of the bond market sentiment at the beginning of 2026 and better bank deposit absorption at the beginning of the year, reducing the supply pressure [8]. - **Net financing**: From January 19 - 25, 2026, the CD net financing was about - 11.81 billion yuan. From January 26 - February 1, 2026, the CD maturity repayment amount is expected to be 42.84 billion yuan, with the maturity renewal scale decreasing [8]. Institutional Behavior - **Inter - bank bond market leverage ratio**: From January 19 - 23, 2026, the average calculated inter - bank bond market leverage ratio was 107.81%, compared with 107.88% from January 12 - 16, 2026 [9]. - **Bond fund duration**: On January 23, 2026, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.33 years, down 0.62 years week - on - week, at the 79.3% quantile since the beginning of 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.61 years, down 0.26 years week - on - week, at the 27.8% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [9].

丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 本轮转债行情是由 ETF 资金推动吗？ ——可转债周报 20260124 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 开年以来转债 ETF 规模回升，但其与指数相关性趋弱，市场波动主要受权益端主导；成交量能 出现背离，或反映投资者对估值态度边际趋紧。当周 A 股震荡分化，中小盘风格占优，建材、 化工等周期制造板块领涨，成交集中于电子和电力设备板块。转债市场整体走强，中小盘指数 优于大盘，隐含波动率与市价中位数突破历史高位，情绪偏暖，部分高价高转股溢价率标的涨 幅居前。一级市场发行较平稳，储备充裕；条款博弈仍是焦点，下修意愿仍较弱而强赎博弈加 剧，市场对强赎计数品种关注度提升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 朱承志 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BWI629 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Title 本轮转债行情是由 2] ETF 资金推动吗？ ——可转债周报 20 ...

1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 利率上行，地方付息压力怎么看？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Summary] 2025 年以来利率上行抬高了地方政府新增债券的发行成本，叠加土地收入下滑，导致其专项债 付息压力持续攀升，2025 年全国层面付息压力预计达 8.42%，正逼近 10%的政策警戒线。压力 呈现显著结构性分化，部分省份和多数地市已提前触及或超过风险阈值，债务风险呈现由基层 向省级上移趋势。尽管付息支出增长正在挤压其他财政支出空间，但由于存量债务基数庞大， 当前利率上升的边际冲击总体仍属可控，需市场利率在现有基础上再大幅上行超过 80 个基点， 才有可能会触及全国性警戒线或耗尽财政腾挪空间，因此预计地方付息压力短期内难以触发货 币政策宽松，降息或调整债券期限结构更多属于中长期应对逻辑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490525080001 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% ...