Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" and is maintained [15] Core Insights - The report provides a forward-looking analysis of the transportation industry for Q4 2025, highlighting improvements in passenger demand and operational efficiencies across various sub-sectors [2][6] Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to see marginal demand improvements, with significant reductions in losses anticipated for Q4 2025. Domestic business demand is stabilizing, and international flights continue to perform well despite short-term disruptions from flight cancellations [6][23] Airports - Domestic airport traffic is projected to increase, with international flights also climbing. Revenue is expected to improve as a result of rising passenger volumes and operational efficiencies [7][26] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a slowdown in growth but is improving profitability through price adjustments and a focus on high-value services. The net profit is expected to turn positive in Q4 2025 [8][29] Logistics - The logistics sector is stabilizing at the bottom of its performance cycle, with cross-border logistics showing signs of recovery. However, overall demand remains weak, leading to a slight decline in performance for major supply chain players [9][31] Maritime Transport - The maritime sector is witnessing a divergence in profitability among different vessel types. While container shipping faces pressure on earnings, oil and bulk shipping are expected to see improvements due to increased demand and operational efficiencies [10][32] Ports - Port operations are expected to benefit from improved handling of bulk goods and stable container throughput, supported by easing trade tensions and increased exports to ASEAN and EU regions [11][38] Highways - The highway sector is projected to see limited growth, with stable profitability expected as truck traffic shows slight improvements compared to the previous year [12][40] Railways - The railway sector is experiencing a split in performance, with passenger transport growth accelerating while freight transport growth is slowing down. The focus on expanding non-coal business is expected to impact profitability negatively [13][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [9] Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in price increases, leading to accelerated differentiation among leading companies. The average price of express delivery in November has shown signs of recovery, while the growth rate of delivery volume has significantly decreased, driving faster market share differentiation. The report is optimistic about leading companies such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express. Additionally, SF Express has initiated a "post-advantage" policy to optimize its product structure, with expectations of a profit rebound in Q4 [2][6][16] Logistics Sector Summary - In the logistics sector, the express delivery industry saw a price recovery in November, with the average delivery price decreasing by 8.3% year-on-year. The delivery volume growth rate fell to 5.0%, down 2.9 percentage points month-on-month. Major players like YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reported varying performance, with YTO's volume increasing by 13.6% year-on-year, while Yunda's volume decreased by 4.2% [15][16] - The average daily traffic volume for coal transport in Ganci Maodu was 1,388 vehicles, a decrease of 93 vehicles from the previous week, while the average price for short-distance transport remained stable [19] Passenger Transport Sector Summary - In the passenger transport sector, domestic passenger volume showed a 4% year-on-year increase, while international passenger volume increased by 9%. The average seat occupancy rate for domestic flights improved by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and the same for international flights also increased by 0.8 percentage points [7][31] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in travel demand, with expectations of marginal revenue improvement due to tightening supply and significant cost improvements [7][29] Maritime Sector Summary - In the maritime sector, oil transportation rates have decreased, with the average VLCC-TCE rate dropping by 11.2% to $102,000 per day. The market is currently experiencing limited new cargo availability, leading to a cautious outlook. The SCFI index for foreign trade container shipping rose by 3.1% to 1,553 points, while the domestic container shipping index also saw an increase [8][55] - The report highlights the impact of the reopening of the Red Sea on long-distance shipping routes and suggests monitoring regional small and medium-sized shipping companies like Haifeng International due to changes in regional shipping patterns following the closure of Hainan Island [8][55]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 产业跟踪：谷歌正式发布 Gemini 3.0 Flash， 关注大模型降本与商业化落地进展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 18 日，谷歌正式发布 Gemini 3.0 Flash，旨在用更低的成本提供前沿的智能水平，面向 所有用户推出。我们认为基模是模型家族的根基，Flash 版本强的核心还是建立在强基模的基 础上进行蒸馏。当前时点 AI 行业进入商业化落地阶段，成本仍是限制用户使用的核心因素，因 此降本是产业的系统性工作与大趋势。从变现角度来说，AI 的变现还是依赖现有互联网商业模 式，过往生态依然重要、头部玩家马太效应更加显著，也是这一轮 AI 商业化落地的关键。 分析师及联系人 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] 宗建树 刘思缘 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title AI 产业跟踪：谷歌正式发布 2] Gemini 3.0 Fl ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 蚂蚁阿福验证赛道高景气，医疗或将成为原 生 AI 垂类应用突破点 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 15 日，蚂蚁集团正式宣布旗下 AI 健康应用"AQ"完成品牌升级，全新命名为"蚂蚁阿 福"，目前月活跃用户已经达到 1500 万，稳居健康管理类 AI 应用首位。当前时点，医疗信息 化正从 B 端建设迈向 C 端价值再造的新阶段，放眼全球，AI+Healthcare 也是巨头重点投资方 向， AI 医疗有望成为 AI 垂类应用破局点，建议重点关注具备场景卡位优势与技术落地能力的 医疗信息化龙头。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 宗建树 刘思缘 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 蚂蚁阿福验证赛道高景气，医疗或将成为原生 2] AI 垂类应用突破点 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 12 月 15 日，蚂蚁集团正式 ...

[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨四川路桥（600039.SH） [Table_Title] 大股东蜀道新董事长到位，关注公司红利价值 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 17 日下午，蜀道投资集团有限责任公司召开干部大会，任命张胜同志任蜀道投资集团有 限责任公司党委书记、董事长。 分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_scodeMsg2] 四川路桥（600039.SH） cjzqdt11111 research.95579.com 1 SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SAC：S0490525070008 SAC：S0490525080003 SFC：BUT917 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 [Table_Title2] 大股东蜀道新董事长到位，关注公司红利价值 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司拟以支付现金 6.28 亿元的方式收购关联方新筑股份持有的新筑交科 100%股权、新筑股 份其它与桥梁功能部件业务有关的资产和 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨建筑与工程 [Table_Title] 基建投资增速连续下滑，水利投资降幅扩大 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 统计局发布经济数据，11 月，狭义基建投资单月下滑 9.7%，降幅环比扩大 1.1pct，广义基建 投资单月下滑 8.3%，降幅环比扩大 0.2pct。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SAC：S0490525070008 SAC：S0490525080003 SFC：BUT917 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 建筑与工程 cjzqdt11111 1、项目转化不及预期； 2、实物工作量推进不及预期。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 2025-12-21 行业研究丨点评报告 [Table_Title2] 基建投资增速连续下滑，水利投资降幅扩大 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 统计局发布经济数据，11 月，狭义基建投资单月下滑 9.7%，降幅环比 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [8]. Core Insights - The report analyzes how Wuliangye navigated through a pricing crisis from 2013 to 2015, facing challenges such as declining demand, high inventory, severe price inversion, and low willingness of distributors to make payments. Various strategies were employed to stabilize market prices, but in 2014, the pricing issue persisted. A reasonable adjustment of payment prices was identified as the first step to resolving the price inversion, but comprehensive supply-demand adjustments, including inventory control and marketing reforms, were necessary for long-term solutions [2][4][13]. Summary by Sections 2013: Price Increase Amidst Challenges - In 2013, Wuliangye attempted to maintain brand strength by raising the factory price to 729 yuan, but due to weak demand, they provided a rebate of 70 yuan to distributors, effectively lowering the price to 659 yuan. However, the average market price remained around 580 yuan, leading to reduced payment willingness from distributors [5][15]. 2014: Diverse Subsidy Policies but Continued Price Inversion - In 2014, Wuliangye implemented various measures to address the price inversion, including a dynamic price protection mechanism and a focus on core distributors. Despite these efforts, reliance on core distributors limited the ability to fully develop channel resources. The factory price was directly lowered to 609 yuan in May, but further increases in quotas led to additional price declines, indicating that merely increasing subsidies was insufficient to resolve the issue [6][19]. 2015: Clear Inventory Control and System Reform - In 2015, Wuliangye emphasized inventory control as a key strategy, stating that the total supply would not increase compared to 2014. Internal reforms were initiated to localize marketing personnel and marketize sales staff compensation, transforming them into market-oriented roles. A comprehensive market management system was established, leading to successful price stabilization during peak sales periods in 2015 [7][21].

世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 通胀压力下，降息预期上 丨证券研究报告丨 ——美国 11 月 CPI 数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 11 月，美国整体通胀大幅低于预期。具体来看：1）食品与能源价格走势分化；2）服 装、二手车通胀降温，核心商品通胀压力可控；3）住房通胀降温，核心服务通胀压力可控。往 前看，1）就业疲软暂无加速迹象，关税的低预期为美联储决策留下充足空间，我们维持此前对 于美联储 2026 年一季度暂缓降息的判断；2）明年 5 月美联储主席换届，特朗普大概率提名鸽 派候选人就任，后续视经济情况择机再度开启降息可能性较大，年内预计累计降息至少 50BP。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 于博 敬成宇 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 通胀压力下，降息预期上 2] ——美国 11 月 CPI 数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 12 月 18 日，美 ...

Core Insights - The media industry is driven by content, leading to a market evolution from "policy recovery" to "expected fundamental improvement" and then to "performance realization and valuation enhancement" [3][6] - The report is optimistic about two segments: gaming and film, highlighting the potential for long-term operations and competition against major players to reshape gaming valuations, and the recovery of the film sector post-policy changes [3][6] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is expected to see sustained performance growth driven by new game releases in 2025, with a focus on long-term operations and a shift from "chasing hits" to "nurturing evergreen" titles [7][18] - The gaming industry's valuation is recovering, with the current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 27x, indicating a return to a reasonable range after a period of low valuations [18][22] - The introduction of AI in gaming is anticipated to enhance user engagement and extend gameplay duration, contributing to long-term growth [7][28] Film Sector - The film industry is poised for recovery following the implementation of the "21 Regulations" by the broadcasting authority, which is expected to revitalize content production and performance realization starting in the second half of 2026 [8][18] - Current film sector performance is compared to the gaming sector in 2022, suggesting a similar trajectory of recovery and growth potential [8][18] AI Applications - The commercialization of AI applications is accelerating, with expectations for a significant turning point in 2026, particularly in AI comic and advertising sectors [9][18] - AI comic production is seen as advantageous due to rapid content iteration and cost control, with companies like Kuaishou positioned to benefit [9][18] - The AI+ advertising model has been successfully implemented globally, with major players like Tencent and Bilibili expected to replicate this success domestically [9][18]

市场策略丨点评报告 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title] 1217 A 股日评：市场情绪修复，创业板指领涨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今日 A 股市场三大指数全部上涨，通信、有色金属板块全线爆发，创业板指涨幅超 3 个点。长 江一级行业中电信业务、金属材料及矿业、电子与保险等行业领涨。从指数表现来看，上证指 数上涨 1.19%，深证成指上涨 2.40%，创业板指上涨 3.39%，上证 50 上涨 1.25%，沪深 300 上涨 1.83%，科创 50 上涨 2.47%，中证 1000 上涨 1.49%，市场成交额为 1.83 万亿元，全市 场 3623 家上涨。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 1217 A 股日评：市场情绪修复，创业板指领涨 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 今日 A 股市场三大指数全部上涨，通信、有色金属板块全线爆发，创业板指涨幅超 3 个点。长 江一级 ...