丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 产业跟踪：月之暗面发布并开源 Kimi K2 Thinking，关注国内大模型推理能力迭代进展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 11 月 6 日，月之暗面正式发布了 Kimi K2 Thinking 模型，其为具有通用 Agentic 能力和推理能 力的思考模型，擅长深度推理，可以通过多轮工具调用，解决各类复杂难题，是 Kimi 迄今能力 最强的开源思考模型。Kimi K2 Thinking 是基于"模型即 Agent"理念训练的新一代 Thinking Agent，它原生掌握"边思考，边使用工具"的能力，无需人类干预，即可自主实现高达 300 轮 的工具调用和持续稳定的多轮思考能力。考虑到当前成本仍为制约 token 消耗量的核心因素， Kimi K2 Thinking 的出现有望开辟降本新范式。继续看好国产 AI 产业链，持续重点推荐铲子股 和卡位优势显著的巨头本身。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 刘思缘 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 %% %% %% %% ...

行业研究丨点评报告丨通信设备 [Table_Title] 太空数据中心或成 AI 电力紧缺下的优解 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 11 月，英伟达首次把 H100GPU 送入了太空。马斯克表示，将扩大星链 V3 卫星规模， 建设太空数据中心，目标在 4-5 年将通过星舰完成每年 100GW 的数据中心部署。谷歌宣布启 动"捕日者计划"，拟在 2027 年初发射两颗搭载 Trillium 代 TPU 的原型卫星，将 AI 算力直接 部署到太空。谷歌高管称："未来太空或许将是实现人工智能计算规模化的最佳场所"。我们认 为随着 AI 的不断发展，其对地面的电力消耗巨大，太空数据中心或成 AI 电力紧缺背景下的优 解。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 于海宁 祖圣腾 SAC：S0490517110002 SAC：S0490523030001 SFC：BUX641 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 通信设备 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 太空数据中心或成 AI 电力紧缺下的优解 ...

联合研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 美国缺电研究系列之六问六答 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当前，市场对美国缺电及其未来的发展趋势仍有较多疑问，主要集中在缺电程度、数据中心并 网以及数据中心自建电源的经济性等方面，对此，我们撰写本篇报告，对此逐一分析。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 赵智勇 曹海花 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490522030001 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BRP550 司鸿历 袁澎 SAC：S0490520080002 SAC：S0490524010001 SFC：BVD284 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 丨证券研究报告丨 cjzqdt11111 2025-11-11 联合研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title2] 美国缺电研究系列之六问六答 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 14 [Table_Summary2] 当前，市场对美国缺电及其未来的发展 ...

联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] AI 投资泡沫化了吗？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期海外四大云厂商披露季报显示其对 CapEx 的投入仍在加码，OpenAI 大规模算力布局与当 前 AI 投入的呈现出规模不经济引发担忧，与此同时美国宏观经济层面出现政府停摆等不确定 性因素，共同加重市场对 AI 投入泡沫化的讨论与担忧。从当前 AI 叙事来看，大模型巨头正围 绕操作系统与流量入口开启全面军备竞赛，一方面 OpenAI 的变现能力正在逐步体现，另一方 面预计 2026 年 Big5 经营状况依旧健康，此外从 Amazon 云计算投入复盘历程看，超前 Capex 并非经营风险，而是先行布局的必然代价，因此我们认为阶段性扰动无需担忧。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 宗建树 于海宁 SAC：S0490517070012 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490517110002 SFC：BUW100 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a cumulative operating revenue of 4.349 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.87%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 64.53% to 146 million yuan. In Q3 alone, the operating revenue reached 1.414 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 31.73%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 122.54% [6][8]. - The revenue decline is attributed to the ramp-up of production capacity, demand in the defense industry, and issues with revenue recognition. The company is still in the process of ramping up production, and the utilization rate remains low. Additionally, rising prices of precious metals have led to higher costs, impacting profitability [2][6][8]. - The company is focusing on its core business and aims to enhance its delivery capabilities while increasing investment in new domains and strategic emerging industries. Significant growth in orders has been observed in defense, new energy, and data communication sectors [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved total operating revenue of 5.025 billion yuan in 2024, with projections of 5.717 billion yuan in 2025, 7.454 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.282 billion yuan in 2027. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 505 million yuan in 2025, 867 million yuan in 2026, and 1.118 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 45%, 72%, and 29% respectively [19][19]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.10 yuan in 2025, 1.90 yuan in 2026, and 2.45 yuan in 2027 [19]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its technological innovation and market expansion efforts, achieving breakthroughs in key technologies. It has secured opportunities for three major new projects and has seen over 30% growth in orders from strategic emerging industries [6][8]. - The company is implementing refined management practices, focusing on cost control and optimizing marketing assessments to improve revenue recognition and cash flow [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company is focused on expanding its revenue streams while deepening its existing market presence. It is actively exploring new growth avenues, particularly in military communication and civilian communication sectors [2][12] - The company reported a total revenue of 1.192 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.92%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 206 million yuan. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 561 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.65, although it still reported a net loss of 92 million yuan [6][12] Summary by Sections Military Communication - The company has successfully secured bulk orders for a new platform's comprehensive communication navigation recognition system and has entered the product delivery phase. Additionally, a collaborative data link product has opened up the market with increasing customer orders. The company is also expanding into the unmanned field, signing contracts for differential takeoff and landing guidance equipment [2][12] Civilian Communication - In the railway communication sector, the company maintains its market leadership and is actively involved in the urban rail transit market, focusing on maintenance and renovation projects. It has reached agreements for trial use of its self-branded TAU in various projects and is accelerating the application of new 5G products in urban rail systems [12] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 88 million yuan, 198 million yuan, and 314 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 178, 79, and 50 [12]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨新宝股份（002705.SZ） [Table_Title] 内销同比增长，利润率表现稳健 报告要点 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年三季报：2025 年前三季度公司实现营业收入 122.84 亿元，同比下滑 3.20%， 实现归母净利润 8.41 亿元，同比增长 7.13%，实现扣非归母净利润 8.14 亿元，同比增长 2.07%。 其中单三季度来看，公司实现营业收入 44.81 亿元，同比下滑 9.78%，实现归母净利润 2.98 亿 元，同比下滑 13.05%，实现扣非归母净利润 2.82 亿元，同比下滑 7.85%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 新宝股份（002705.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 内销同比增长，利润率表现 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 137.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.50%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 21.46 billion yuan, down 2.27% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 39.86 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year decline of 15.09%, with a net profit of 7.05 billion yuan, down 9.92% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company announced a mid-year profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 26.02% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company's revenue decline is attributed to several factors, including the transition from large to small distributors, a high-end brand positioning in a cautious consumer environment, and pressure on central air conditioning growth due to ongoing real estate downturns. The revenue growth rate for the company was lower than the overall industry expectation [10]. - The overall home air conditioning industry saw a total sales volume decline of 2.71%, with domestic sales increasing by 5.51% and exports decreasing by 12.94% [10]. Profitability - The gross margin decreased by 0.68 percentage points year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025. However, the operating profit margin increased by 0.13 percentage points due to a reduction in asset impairment losses [10]. - In Q3 2025, the gross margin decreased by 0.27 percentage points, while the operating profit margin increased by 0.62 percentage points, indicating improved profitability despite revenue challenges [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to gradually recover from the operational pain caused by channel reforms, with improved terminal competitiveness anticipated. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 31.78 billion yuan, 33.53 billion yuan, and 35.71 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 7.13, 6.76, and 6.35 [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 18.212 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.77%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -146 million yuan, down 174.19% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was -144 million yuan, a decline of 182.20% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.004 billion yuan, an increase of 6.75% year-on-year but a decrease of 8.89% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -169 million yuan, turning to a loss both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the C4 industrial chain, with significant competitive advantages. It focuses on deep processing of raw material C4, forming four product lines, including but not limited to methyl ethyl ketone, maleic anhydride, MMA, and nitrile latex, with a market share of approximately 70% in China [13]. - The company is expanding into the C3 industrial chain, with projects including a propane dehydrogenation project and an epoxy propane project. However, the supply-demand imbalance in the epoxy propane market poses challenges to profitability [13]. - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated to be 60 million yuan, 490 million yuan, and 910 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 246.1x, 28.7x, and 15.4x [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 18.212 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.77% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -146 million yuan, a decline of 174.19% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was -144 million yuan, down 182.20% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q3 2025, the revenue was 6.004 billion yuan, up 6.75% year-on-year but down 8.89% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -169 million yuan, indicating a loss both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is a leader in the C4 industrial chain, focusing on the deep processing of raw material C4, with a strong market presence in products like methyl ethyl ketone and maleic anhydride. The company benefits from its location in Shandong, which has abundant refining resources [13]. - The company is also developing its C3 industrial chain, with several projects underway. However, the supply-demand dynamics in the epoxy propane market are challenging, affecting profitability [13]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates net profits of 60 million yuan, 490 million yuan, and 910 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios indicating potential growth [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - Anta Sports reported Q3 2025 retail data, showing low single-digit growth for the Anta and FILA brands, while other brands experienced a growth of 45%-50% [2][4]. - The retail performance of Anta is under pressure, with expectations of a decline in terminal discounts, although the inventory-to-sales ratio remains healthy [6]. - FILA's retail performance is relatively weak, with high inventory levels, and it is anticipated that discounts will increase during the upcoming Double Eleven sales to clear stock [6]. - Short-term pressures are expected to continue affecting gross profit margin (GPM) and operating profit margin (OPM), while mid-term growth will rely on store adjustments and international expansion [6]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 131 billion, 146 billion, and 161 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 15, and 14 [6][8]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Anta brand retail shows low single-digit growth, aligning with market trends, while other brands are performing significantly better [2][4]. - FILA brand retail is underperforming with high inventory levels, and adjustments are expected to improve inventory turnover [6]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are 70.83 billion for 2024, 78.63 billion for 2025, 86.40 billion for 2026, and 93.76 billion for 2027, with growth rates of 14%, 11%, 10%, and 9% respectively [8]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are 4.25 for 2024, increasing to 5.74 by 2027 [8].