Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - Focus on upstream materials for commercial aerospace, with a strong recommendation for UTG glass due to its significant market potential [6][2] - The cement market is experiencing seasonal declines in shipments, while glass inventory has decreased month-on-month [8] - For 2026, three main lines of opportunity are identified: stock chain, Africa chain, and AI chain [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Cement Market - After the New Year, domestic cement market demand continues to weaken due to factors like funding shortages and temperature drops, with key enterprises' shipment rates around 39%, down 1.5 percentage points month-on-month [8] - National cement prices have slightly declined, with price drops observed in regions like Zhejiang, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang, ranging from 10 to 30 yuan per ton [23] - The national average cement price is 357.26 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.32 yuan month-on-month [24] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market has seen a slight rebound in prices, driven by speculative demand, with a total inventory reduction of 183 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.40% [8][36] - The average price of glass is 61.99 yuan per weight box, up 0.05 yuan month-on-month, but down 12.44 yuan year-on-year [36] - The production capacity of float glass has decreased, with 209 out of 262 production lines operational, resulting in a daily melting capacity of 149,535 tons [8] Investment Opportunities - UTG glass is projected to have a demand of approximately 1.2 million square meters based on the forecast of 6,000 satellites launched annually, translating to a market space of 6 billion yuan [6] - Carbon fiber demand is estimated at around 1,000 tons for satellite applications, with high profit elasticity due to the use of high-modulus series [7] - The report highlights three main investment themes for 2026: optimizing demand and supply in the stock chain, leveraging growth in the African market, and capitalizing on the upgrade trend in AI electronic fabrics [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [7] Core Insights - The non-bank sector has shown strong performance this week, with brokers experiencing increased trading activity while maintaining historical highs. The insurance sector is expected to see improved long-term ROE and valuation recovery, indicating a rising cost-effectiveness for overall allocation [2][4] - Recommendations include stable profit growth and dividend rates for Jiangsu Jinzu, high dividend yield for China Ping An, and companies with strong business models and market positions like China Pacific Insurance. Additional recommendations include New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation levels [4] Market Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 2.6% this week, with a year-to-date performance of 2.6%, ranking 21 out of 31 sectors. The average daily trading volume in the two markets reached 28,519.51 billion yuan, up 34.00% week-on-week, with a daily turnover rate of 2.77%, up 61.14 basis points [5][15] - The market has seen a recovery in trading activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 5.11% and the bond index declining by 0.23%. Long-term interest rates have increased, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 3.09 basis points to 1.8782% [5][39] Insurance Sector Overview - In November 2025, the cumulative premium income reached 57,629 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.56%. Life insurance premiums increased by 9.06%, while property insurance premiums rose by 3.88% [19][20] - The total assets of insurance companies reached 40.65 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies holding 35.75 trillion yuan, reflecting a stable asset allocation with a slight decrease in deposit proportions and an increase in bond and equity fund allocations [25][26] Brokerage and Investment Business - The brokerage business has seen a recovery in trading volumes, with a two-market average daily trading volume of 28,519.51 billion yuan, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability as commission rates stabilize [40] - The investment business has also rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.79% and the ChiNext Index by 3.89%. The proportion of equity investments in brokerage assets is approximately 10%-30%, while bond investments account for 70%-90% [44] Financing Activities - In December 2025, equity financing reached 663.12 billion yuan, a 30.9% increase, while bond financing totaled 7.34 trillion yuan, up 4.0%. This indicates a positive trend in financing activities, with expectations for increased stock underwriting in the future [51] - The asset management sector saw a rebound in new issuance, with 61.14 billion units issued in December, a 39.0% increase compared to previous months [53]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The positive factors in the stock index market are continuously emerging. Policies in the consumption and real estate sectors are working together to support economic recovery. The significant rebound of the construction industry PMI and the stabilization of building material prices indicate the potential for investment to stabilize. The expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut in January, along with the strengthening of the exchange rate and the new round of public - fund allocation, will improve market liquidity. However, potential risks and sentiment changes need to be monitored, and the stock index may fluctuate [6]. - The decline momentum of the bond market has weakened, but it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations in the medium - term. The bond market may fluctuate [11]. - In terms of economic data, in November, the CPI and PPI showed signs of recovery, exports were mixed, industrial production and fixed - asset investment were weak, social retail sales declined, and the growth rate of social financing remained stable [18][21][23] Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy - Strategy outlook: Range - bound fluctuations [9]. - Stock index performance review: Last week, all major A - share broad - based indexes closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.82% [10]. - Core view: Positive factors are emerging, but potential risks and sentiment changes need attention, and the stock index may fluctuate. IC, IM and other related indexes are relatively strong [10]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the broader market index may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [10]. Treasury Bond Strategy - Treasury bond performance review: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.10%, 0.01%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively [11]. - Core view: The decline momentum of the bond market has weakened, but it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations in the medium - term, and the bond market may fluctuate [11]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate [11]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In December, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1%, returning to the expansion range for the first time in 8 months. The high - tech manufacturing PMI increased significantly, and large and medium - sized enterprises led the improvement [18]. CPI - In November, the year - on - year increase of CPI and the month - on - month increase of PPI were the result of seasonal factors, low - base effects, and "anti - involution". The CPI and PPI are expected to continue to rebound [21]. Exports and Imports - In November, China's exports were 330.35 billion US dollars, imports were 218.67 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 111.68 billion US dollars. The exports of labor - intensive products, mechanical and electrical products, and high - tech products showed different trends. The overall exports in November were not weak, but there may be pressure in December [23][24]. Industrial Added Value - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value decreased to 4.8%. The reasons may be the suppression of "anti - involution" on key industries and the high base established by strong production after policy implementation last year [25][28]. Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6%. In November, the fixed - asset investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, with a slight rebound compared to October. Different types and directions of investment showed different trends [31]. Social Retail - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales decreased to 1.3%, the weakest since 2023. The reasons include the weakening of durable - goods consumption, the weak "Double Eleven" sales, and the weak performance of post - real - estate cycle consumption [34]. Social Financing - In November, the new social financing was 2.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 trillion yuan. Corporate bonds and non - standard financing were the main supports, while government bonds and credit were the main drags. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing remained stable at 8.5% [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side is affected by factors such as the non - resumption of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine, and the production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai receiving notices of mining right transfer review. In December, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 3% month - on - month, and in November, the imported lithium concentrate was 729,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.9%. The total import of lithium carbonate in November was about 22,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 15%. It is expected that the subsequent import of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply [5][7]. - The downstream demand is strong, and the de - stocking trend continues. The terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good. The production schedule in January is expected to decline slightly, and the cathode production schedule in November increased by 2% month - on - month. With the continuous risk of mining certificates in Yichun, the production of lithium from ore continues to increase under the background of profit repair, and the cost center moves up. The expectation of the resumption of production of Ningde Jianxiawo within the year has failed. After the joint production cut of cathode material factories, the downstream production schedule is expected to decline, resulting in a small inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mine end. When downstream purchases lithium carbonate, the inventory of traders accumulates, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Weekly Viewpoint Supply - side situation - Production: According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, last week's lithium carbonate production increased by 50 tons week - on - week to 24,400 tons, and the December production increased by 3% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices of mining right transfer review, affecting supply. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the space for further cost reduction of Australian mines is extremely limited. Most mainstream Australian mines have basically reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25 [5]. - Import: In November 2025, China imported 729,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a month - on - month increase of 11.9%. The top three countries in terms of import volume were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. The import of lithium concentrate from Australia in November increased by 44% month - on - month, the import from Zimbabwe was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28%, and the import from Nigeria was 92,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16%. In November, 22,055 tons of lithium carbonate were imported, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6%, and the import from Chile was 10,800 tons, accounting for 49% [5]. - Cost: The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week. Some manufacturers producing lithium carbonate by purchasing external lithium ore faced cost inversion. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes had certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. Demand - side situation - Production schedule: The overall production schedule in January decreased month - on - month, and the production schedule of large - scale cell factories in November increased by 2% month - on - month [6]. - Production, export, and sales of batteries: In November, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 176.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.2%. The total export of power and other batteries was 32.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.1% and a year - on - year increase of 46.5%. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 179.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 52.2%. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax on the policy side are also expected to continuously support the rapid growth of the sales volume of the new energy vehicle market in China [6]. - Inventory: This week, the lithium carbonate inventory showed a slight accumulation state. The factory inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 849 tons, the market inventory decreased by 3,740 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 5,079 tons [6]. Key Data Tracking - Multiple data charts are provided, including the spot tax - included average price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, average price of imported lithium concentrate, production of power and other batteries, production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, production and loading volume differences of domestic power batteries, production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, import volume of lithium spodumene, average price of lithium iron phosphate for power use, import volume of lithium carbonate, and market price of ternary materials type 8 NCA. The data sources are Baichuan Yingfu, IFIND, and the Non - ferrous Metals Industry Service Center of Yangtze River Futures [9][10][12][14][18][21][24][25][27][31][33][38][39][41][43]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking sector is "Positive" and is maintained [12]. Core Insights - In the first week of 2026, the banking sector continued to adjust, with a cumulative decline of 1.9% in the banking index, significantly underperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by -4.7% and -5.8% respectively. Despite this, the fundamental expectations for the sector remain unchanged, and the market's risk appetite has notably increased [2][6][19]. - The main banks are expected to maintain stable growth in performance throughout 2026. Following recent adjustments, the PB-ROE valuation attractiveness of bank stocks has further increased, suggesting a favorable timing for allocation [2][6][19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking sector's performance in the first week of 2026 showed a cumulative decline of 1.9%, with significant negative excess returns compared to the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices [6][19]. - Individual stocks such as Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank saw price recovery after management uncertainties were resolved, while stable performers like Hangzhou Bank led the city commercial bank sector [2][6][19]. Fundamental Analysis - The banking sector's performance has been influenced by structural concerns, particularly regarding real estate and retail asset quality. Despite these concerns, overall performance remains stable with steady growth [8][37]. - The LTV (Loan-to-Value) ratios for major banks are stable at 40%-50%, providing a safety margin despite rising asset quality pressures in mortgage loans [8][37]. Trading Dynamics - The increase in market risk appetite has continued to suppress bank stock valuations. Historically, January has seen excess returns for bank stocks, but this year, the rapid recovery in market sentiment has led to underperformance [9][38]. - The report recommends focusing on high-quality city commercial banks such as Hangzhou Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Jiangsu Bank, as well as dividend-oriented assets like Bank of Communications and China Merchants Bank [9][38]. Convertible Bonds - The prices of convertible bonds linked to bank stocks have generally followed the sector's adjustment, with the distance to mandatory conversion prices widening. The report highlights potential trading opportunities in convertible bonds for banks like Changshu Bank and Shanghai Bank, which have stable fundamental performance expectations [7][32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The non - farm payrolls in the US in December fell short of expectations, leading to an increase in interest - rate cut expectations and a rise in precious metal prices. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and initiated a reserve management - type balance - sheet expansion. With the weakening of US economic data, the central bank's gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to move up. Due to concerns about potential US tariffs on platinum and palladium imports, their prices are expected to remain strong and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the US December CPI data to be released on Tuesday [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - US December non - farm payrolls fell short of expectations, increasing interest - rate cut expectations and providing liquidity support. Gold prices rose, with the US gold closing at $4,518 per ounce last Friday, up 4.1% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,580, and the lower support level is $4,460. Silver prices also rose due to the same factors and the continued shortage of silver spot. The weekly gain was 10.4%, closing at $79.8 per ounce, with a lower support level of $76 and an upper resistance level of $83 [6][9]. 2. Weekly View - The non - farm payrolls in the US in December were lower than expected, and the precious metal prices continued to be strong. The Fed cut interest rates and expanded the balance sheet. The slowdown in the US employment situation and the weakening of economic data suggest that the mid - term price centers of gold and silver will move up. The prices of platinum and palladium are expected to remain strong and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the US December CPI data [11]. 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents multiple macro - economic indicators such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, yield spreads, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance - sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but no specific analysis or conclusions are provided in the given text [15][17][19]. 4. Current Week's Important Economic Data - The actual values and expected values of US December economic data are presented, including non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, ADP employment, and ISM non - manufacturing PMI [24]. 5. Current Week's Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies - The US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, and the unemployment rate decreased. It is expected that the Fed will pause interest - rate cuts in January and from January to May, and may cut interest rates 1 - 2 times after the new chairman takes office. The US is discussing the option of acquiring Greenland [25]. 6. Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2,832.02 kg to 1,129,427.74 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory decreased by 51 kg to 97,653 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 312,057.22 kg to 13,677,468.74 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 71,376 kg to 620,262 kg [13][30]. 7. Fund Holdings - As of January 6, the net long positions of gold CFTC speculative funds were 213,743 contracts, a decrease of 5,756 contracts from last week. The net long positions of silver CFTC speculative funds were 28,532 contracts, a decrease of 127 contracts from last week [13][34]. 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - On January 13 (Tuesday) at 21:30, the US December CPI annual rate unadjusted will be released; on January 14 (Wednesday) at 21:30, the US November retail sales monthly rate and November PPI annual rate will be released; on January 15 (Thursday) at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10 will be released [36].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company has opened its first "Gujing Liquor Shop" in Bozhou, Anhui Province, on December 12, 2025, marking its entry into the scattered liquor market. This transformation is seen as beneficial, as it allows the company to provide high-quality products at competitive prices to meet diverse consumer demands in a rational consumption environment [2][15]. - The new shop offers a variety of liquor options, including different types of Baijiu and local specialty wines, with flexible pricing starting from 2.9 yuan for 50ml to 29.9 yuan [6][15]. - The company aims to tap into the younger consumer demographic by lowering the barriers to purchase through community-based sales and offering unique low-alcohol products [2][15]. - The company has significantly increased its production capacity over the past decade, with output rising from 65,700 tons in 2014 to 128,000 tons in 2024, and plans to reach an annual capacity of 150,000 tons [18][23]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will be 8.15 yuan and 8.44 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17 and 16 times [23]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The opening of the "Gujing Liquor Shop" represents the company's first foray into the scattered liquor market, providing a range of products at flexible pricing [6][15]. Market Performance - The company is positioned as a leading Baijiu brand in Anhui, leveraging its strong brand recognition to innovate and connect with consumers [2][15]. Production Capacity - The company has expanded its production capacity significantly, which supports its entry into the scattered liquor market and aligns with consumer demand for high-quality products [18][23]. Consumer Demand - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior towards rational consumption, with a growing preference for quality and brand over low prices in the liquor market [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the metal and mining industry, indicating a favorable outlook for investment opportunities [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in industrial metals driven by "Monroeism" sentiment, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a trend of copper hoarding in the U.S. [2][5]. - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are experiencing a recovery phase, with a focus on the resilience of gold stocks amid geopolitical tensions and fluctuating interest rate expectations [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sector allocation, particularly in copper and aluminum, as they are expected to benefit from macroeconomic trends and supply-demand dynamics [5][6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold stocks are showing signs of recovery, with a notable shift from a previous stagnation in performance relative to gold prices. The report anticipates continued upward pressure on gold prices due to ongoing recession fears and weak inflation and employment data [4]. - Silver is expected to outperform due to macroeconomic conditions and a favorable trading structure, with a recommendation to focus on silver stocks for their potential elasticity [4]. Industrial Metals - The report notes a strong performance in copper and aluminum, with copper prices rising by 4.3% and aluminum by 3.8% during the week. This is attributed to increased inventories and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop [5][24]. - The report suggests that the copper and aluminum sectors are well-positioned for a spring rally, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and supply disruptions due to geopolitical factors [5][6]. Energy and Strategic Metals - The report identifies lithium as a key area for investment, with expectations of a supply-demand turning point and strong pricing trends. The strategic value of rare earths and tungsten is also highlighted, particularly in light of export controls and geopolitical tensions [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of positioning in cobalt and nickel, with expectations of long-term price increases due to supply constraints and rising demand [6].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [10] Core Insights - The company is a leader in the fluorosilicone industry, with the third-generation refrigerant quota officially freezing in 2024, indicating a long-term upward trend for the industry [3][10] - Significant slowdown in capital expenditure for organic silicon, with demand maintaining high growth, suggesting a potential reversal from the industry's bottom [3][10] - The fluorinated polymer segment is expected to encounter structural opportunities [3][10] Company Overview - The company is a leading enterprise in China's fluorosilicone industry, focusing on creating a world-class fluorosilicone material industry chain [6][16] - It operates through subsidiaries, including Dongyue Green Cold Technology for refrigerants, Dongyue Silicon Materials for organic silicon, and Dongyue High Polymer Materials for fluorinated polymers [6][16] Refrigerants - The refrigerant market is experiencing a sustained upward trend, with a new business model forming due to the freezing of third-generation refrigerant quotas in 2024 [7][40] - The industry is transitioning from a state of oversupply to a balanced supply-demand situation, with a high concentration rate of 65% among the top three companies [7][47] - Prices for R32, R134a, R125, and R143a have increased significantly, with respective price increases of 265%, 107%, 71%, and 44% compared to early 2024 [7] Organic Silicon - The organic silicon industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with expectations for a gradual recovery supported by stable demand across traditional and emerging sectors [8] - The domestic organic silicon industry is transitioning from a phase of capacity expansion to a period of limited new capacity, alleviating supply-side pressures [8] Fluorinated Polymers - The fluorinated polymer sector is at a low point, but emerging demand is expected to drive growth, particularly in high-end applications [9] - The company is well-positioned in the production of PTFE, with advantages in high-end markets, while PVDF is benefiting from unexpected demand in lithium battery applications [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [8] Core Insights - The adjustment of coal power capacity prices in Tianjin exceeds expectations, with the fixed cost recovery ratio increasing to 70% from January 1, 2026, which is higher than the previously planned minimum of 50% [2][11] - The January 2026 proxy purchase electricity prices show a general decline across most provinces, with significant regional disparities; northern inland areas exhibit more resilience compared to coastal regions facing greater pressure [2][11] Summary by Sections Capacity Price Adjustment - Tianjin's coal power capacity price will rise from 100 yuan per kilowatt per year to 231 yuan, enhancing the fixed cost recovery ratio to 70% [2][11] - The adjustment is expected to yield an increase of approximately 0.035 yuan per kilowatt-hour in electricity pricing, although actual capacity fees may rise more significantly due to declining coal power utilization hours [11] Proxy Purchase Electricity Prices - January 2026 proxy purchase prices show a decline, with Guangdong and Jiangsu reporting average transaction prices of 372.14 yuan per megawatt-hour and 344.19 yuan per megawatt-hour, respectively, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 19.72 yuan and 68.26 yuan [11] - Northern inland regions, such as Inner Mongolia, show a year-on-year increase in proxy purchase prices, while coastal provinces like Guangdong and Jiangsu face declines exceeding 5 fen per kilowatt-hour [11] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality coal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and Guodian Power, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation [11][16][17] - It also highlights the potential of new energy companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power, suggesting a favorable long-term outlook for the sector [11][20]