Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication equipment sector [11] Core Insights - The communication sector saw a 0.25% increase in the 10th week of 2026, ranking 11th among primary industries in the Yangtze River region; since the beginning of 2026, the sector has risen by 4.74%, ranking 15th [2][5] - Oracle's FY26Q3 cloud business revenue reached $17.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, with a net profit of $3.72 billion, up 26.7% year-on-year [6] - Broadcom launched the world's first 3nm 400G single-channel DSP chip, which is foundational for the next generation of optical modules and switches [7] - The establishment of three major MSA (Multi-Source Agreement) groups aims to promote high-density pluggable optical technology and set standards for optical engines [7] - OpenClaw continues to lead in the AI agent field, with its top three models being domestically produced, each surpassing 1 trillion token consumption [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The communication sector's individual stock performance showed significant gains for companies with a market capitalization over 8 billion yuan, with Changfei Fiber (+13.5%), Guangxun Technology (+11.0%), and Zhiwei Intelligent (+10.4%) leading the gains; while Runze Technology (-10.3%), Huafeng Technology (-9.2%), and Xinke Mobile (-8.4%) faced the largest declines [5] Oracle's Cloud Business - Oracle's cloud application revenue was $4.03 billion, up 13.2% year-on-year, while cloud infrastructure revenue surged to $4.89 billion, reflecting an 84.3% increase [6] - The multi-cloud database business saw a staggering year-on-year growth of 531%, with global coverage achieved across various cloud platforms [6] Technological Developments - Broadcom's new 3nm DSP chip is set to enhance the capabilities of future optical modules and switches, marking a significant technological advancement [7] - The three MSAs focus on different aspects of optical technology integration, with notable participation from major industry players [7] AI and Token Consumption - OpenClaw's platform has seen a dramatic increase in usage, with a monthly website visit count of 27 million and a 925.04% month-on-month growth [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The waterproof industry has seen frequent price increases since March, with a strong determination to pass on rising costs. The first price increase on March 1 raised prices of asphalt-based products by 5%-10%, followed by a second increase on March 11 of 10-15% across all products [3][4]. - The cement market is experiencing weak shipment performance, while glass costs are pushing prices up. The demand for cement is slowly increasing due to improved weather and higher construction rates, with a national cement shipment rate of approximately 24.5%, up 9.5 percentage points month-on-month [4][22]. - The electronic fabric market is tight, with significant price increases observed in March. Downstream demand remains strong, supporting further price hikes [5][47]. Summary by Sections Waterproof Industry - The waterproof sector is actively passing on cost increases, with a total price increase of at least 15% calculated based on the lower end of the price hikes. This is greater than the cost increase from asphalt price rises, which have gone from approximately 3600 RMB/ton to about 4200 RMB/ton, impacting costs by about 7% [3][4]. Cement Market - The cement market is showing signs of recovery with a shipment rate of 24.5%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 9.5 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 2.5 percentage points. However, some high-price regions continue to see price declines due to weak demand recovery [4][22][23]. Glass Market - The float glass market is supported by rising costs, with prices experiencing slight increases. The overall supply and demand remain stable, but high inventory levels persist. The production capacity slightly decreased, with 206 out of 264 production lines operational, and daily melting capacity at 147,785 tons [4][33]. Electronic Fabric - The electronic fabric market is characterized by a significant price increase, with new prices being implemented smoothly. The demand from downstream CCL and PCB manufacturers is robust, leading to expectations of further price increases [5][47]. 2026 Outlook - The report identifies three main lines for investment in 2026: the stock chain focusing on demand optimization and supply clearance, the undervalued African chain benefiting from population and urbanization trends, and the AI chain with opportunities in electronic fabrics. Key companies recommended include Sanhe Tree, Rabbit Baby, and China Jushi [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - Tencent achieved revenue of 194.4 billion yuan in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1%. Operating profit reached 60.3 billion yuan, up 17% year-on-year. Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 64.7 billion yuan, also up 17% year-on-year [2][4]. Revenue Breakdown - **Gaming Revenue**: Strong growth in gaming, with domestic game revenue increasing by 15% to 38.2 billion yuan, driven by titles like "Delta Action" and "Valorant." Overseas game revenue surged by 32% to 21.1 billion yuan, marking a record high for six consecutive quarters. Tencent achieved over 10 billion USD in overseas game revenue in 2025 [8]. - **Advertising Revenue**: AI optimization and expanded marketing capabilities in WeChat led to sustained mid-to-high-speed growth in advertising, with marketing services revenue increasing by 17% to 41.1 billion yuan [8]. - **Cloud Services**: AI-driven demand boosted cloud service revenue growth, with enterprise services growing by 22% year-on-year. Overall revenue from financial technology and enterprise services rose by 8% to 60.8 billion yuan [8]. Profitability and Costs - Tencent's gross margin for Q4 was 55.7%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for value-added services was 59.5%, and for marketing services, it was 59.7% [8]. - R&D expenses reached a record high of over 85.7 billion yuan for the year, up 21% year-on-year, reflecting increased investment in AI and gaming [8]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for Q4 was 19.6 billion yuan, down 46% year-on-year but up 51% quarter-on-quarter. Total capital expenditure for 2025 was 79.2 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 10.5% of revenue [8]. AI Strategy - Tencent's AI strategy is accelerating, with significant advancements in AI capabilities and product integration. The HY 3.0 version is set to launch in April, enhancing reasoning and agent capabilities [8].

Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure in January-February exceeded budget targets, indicating proactive fiscal measures to support economic growth, with total expenditure increasing by 6.1% year-on-year against a budget target of 4.6%[13] - General public budget revenue for January-February was 4.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, while expenditure was 4.7 trillion yuan, up 3.6% year-on-year[7] - The first account expenditure grew by 3.6% year-on-year, while the second account expenditure surged by 16%, primarily due to the early issuance and timely use of local special bonds[13] Group 2: Revenue Insights - Tax revenue remained nearly flat, with a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue saw a significant rise of 3.4%[13] - Among major tax categories, only value-added tax maintained positive growth, while consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax all experienced declines[9] - The securities transaction stamp duty saw a remarkable year-on-year increase of 110%[10] Group 3: Expenditure Trends - Infrastructure spending turned positive with a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, reversing a previous decline of 6.6% in 2025[14] - Social security and health care remain key areas of focus, contributing 1.6 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points to public fiscal expenditure growth, respectively[14] - Interest payment expenditure increased by 22% year-on-year, accounting for 4.1% of total fiscal expenditure, raising concerns about future debt servicing pressures[14] Group 4: Land Sales and Special Bonds - Land sale revenue decreased by 25% year-on-year, significantly impacting fund income, which fell by 16%[14] - Fund expenditure increased by 16%, with 60% supported by special bonds, highlighting the reliance on these instruments for funding[14] - The total quota for local special bonds remains at 4.4 trillion yuan, balancing multiple objectives including project construction and debt repayment, suggesting limited high growth potential for these bonds throughout the year[14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6]. Core Insights - Since March 2026, the express delivery industry has intensified its focus on addressing "involution" competition, entering a second phase of "anti-involution" [3][4]. - The current PE valuation for the express delivery sector is between 11-12X, indicating a high certainty of profit improvement and attractive win-odds [4]. - Key recommendations include leading companies Zhongtong and Yuantong, which are expected to achieve simultaneous volume and price increases, with a potential recovery in valuation premiums [4]. Summary by Sections Anti-Involution Measures - The focus of the current "anti-involution" phase is on protecting the rights of delivery personnel, with legislative efforts from the Ministry of Justice aimed at resolving "involution" competition [3]. - Administrative regulations are tightening, with various provinces increasing delivery fees and enforcing labor contracts and social security payments [3][4]. Price Adjustments - Price increases are being observed across different regions, with specific examples including a 1 yuan surcharge for packages from Yiwu to Beijing and Shanghai, and various price hikes in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Jiangxi provinces [3][4]. - Regulatory bodies are establishing mechanisms for regular communication to monitor the "anti-involution" efforts [3]. E-commerce Tax Impact - The introduction of e-commerce taxes is driving industry consolidation, as lower-priced e-commerce platforms face shrinking margins, leading to increased market share for leading companies [4]. - The current market dynamics reflect a strong consensus between regulators and companies on enhancing the rights of delivery personnel, as evidenced by price increases during the typically slow season [4]. Logistics Data - Air freight prices remain high, with significant fluctuations in indices for major routes, influenced by geopolitical factors [5]. - The express delivery volume has shown steady growth, with a reported 4.5% year-on-year increase in collection volume [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" and it is maintained [9][10]. Core Insights - In FY2026 Q3, Alibaba's revenue reached 284.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Excluding disposed businesses, revenue grew by 9%. Operating profit was 10.6 billion yuan, down 74% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was 16.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 67% [7][9]. - The report highlights several operational strengths: first, Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth accelerated sequentially, with AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit growth for the tenth consecutive quarter. Second, the Qianwen App is rapidly integrating with Alibaba's consumer ecosystem, expanding user scale through deeper integration of ecosystem services [2][9]. - Looking ahead, the company aims to leverage its full-stack AI capabilities, combining large models, cloud, and chips, to enhance its business ecosystem and continue its push into AI for both B2B and B2C markets [2][9]. Financial Projections - The projected Non-GAAP net profits for Alibaba from FY2026 to FY2028 are 76.2 billion yuan, 108.8 billion yuan, and 156.8 billion yuan, respectively [9]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, indicating that operating revenue is expected to grow from 1,024.7 billion yuan in FY2026 to 1,386.7 billion yuan in FY2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [10] Core Insights - In FY2025Q4, the adidas brand achieved revenue of €6.08 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 11% at constant exchange rates. The gross margin improved by 1.0 percentage points to 50.8%, primarily due to reduced product and freight costs, business structure optimization, and full-price sales. Operating profit surged by 188% to €160 million, with an operating margin increase of 1.7 percentage points to 2.7%. The net profit margin turned positive at 1.3% [2][6] Revenue Breakdown - By region, at constant exchange rates, adidas brand revenues for FY2025Q4 grew year-on-year as follows: Europe +6% (€1.83 billion), North America +5% (€1.27 billion), Latin America +18% (€840 million), Emerging Markets +15% (€940 million), Japan/Korea +13% (€320 million), and Greater China +15% (€850 million). For FY2025, revenues increased by 10% in Europe (€8.14 billion), 10% in North America (€5.09 billion), 22% in Latin America (€2.93 billion), 17% in Emerging Markets (€3.51 billion), 14% in Japan/Korea (€1.41 billion), and 13% in Greater China (€3.62 billion) [7][8] - By channel, at constant exchange rates, adidas brand revenues for FY2025Q4 were up 2% in wholesale (€3.04 billion) and 19% in DTC (€3.01 billion). For FY2025, revenues increased by 12% in wholesale (€14.83 billion) and 14% in DTC (€9.93 billion). The DTC channel showed strong growth in FY2025Q4, with e-commerce revenue up 21% and self-operated retail store revenue up 17% [7][8] - By product category, at constant exchange rates, adidas brand revenues for FY2025Q4 were as follows: footwear +5% (€3.25 billion), apparel +20% (€2.38 billion), and accessories +7% (€450 million). For FY2025, revenues increased by 12% in footwear (€14.23 billion), 15% in apparel (€8.76 billion), and 6% in accessories (€1.82 billion). Notably, running shoes saw over 35% growth in FY2025Q4, supported by World Cup-related apparel [8] Inventory and Performance Guidance - As of FY2025Q4, the company's inventory increased by 16.9% year-on-year to €5.83 billion, primarily due to revenue growth plans and early procurement of World Cup-related products. The overall inventory structure remains healthy, supporting sustained revenue growth [14] - For FY2026, the company expects revenue growth of approximately €2 billion at constant exchange rates, with all markets projected to gain market share. North America, Greater China, Emerging Markets, Latin America, and Japan/Korea are expected to see low double-digit growth, while Europe is anticipated to achieve mid-single-digit growth. Operating profit is projected to be around €2.3 billion, which is below market expectations [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the clean power sector [8]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes low-carbon requirements, aiming for a 17% reduction in carbon emission intensity during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period and a 25% increase in non-fossil energy consumption by 2030 [8][9]. - The report highlights the transition from "energy consumption dual control" to "carbon emission dual control," which will facilitate green electricity consumption [8][9]. - The construction of a new energy system is prioritized, focusing on the safe and orderly replacement of fossil fuels with non-fossil energy sources, including wind, solar, and nuclear power [9]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The report discusses the "15th Five-Year Plan" which outlines five key indicators focusing on carbon reduction and ecological protection [4]. Event Commentary 1. The plan promotes the safe and reliable replacement of fossil energy with non-fossil energy, implementing a ten-year doubling action for non-fossil energy [5]. 2. It aims to enhance the resilience and safety of the power system, optimizing national electricity flow and accelerating smart grid construction [5]. 3. By 2030, the plan sets a target for offshore wind power capacity to exceed 100 million kilowatts and nuclear power capacity to reach approximately 110 million kilowatts [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the clean power sector as a "turnaround opportunity" driven by policy catalysts, recommending companies such as Longyuan Power H, New天绿色能源 H, China Nuclear Power, and others [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Input - type inflation expectation is the main reason for the significant adjustment of long - term interest rates. The bond market may go through three steps in trading input - type inflation, and it is expected to reach the third step, where inflation trading may end and a bond market repair rally may start [4][12]. - The first sign that the "imported inflation pricing" in the bond market is coming to an end may be the failure of the "seesaw" between oil prices and long - term interest rates, indicating that the bond market's sensitivity to "imported inflation" is decreasing and a new round of repair rally may be on the way [6][13]. - The quantitative results show that the impact of this round of imported inflation on long - term interest rates is limited. The market has already priced in the imported inflation expectation brought by rising oil prices, and the marginal driving force of oil prices on long - term interest rates has weakened [6][17]. - Currently, trading institutions hold few ultra - long bond chips, so the room for the 30Y Treasury bond yield to continue rising for multiple consecutive days is limited [6][22]. - After further adjustments, 30 - year Treasury bonds and local bonds will enter the desirable allocation range of allocation investors [6][27]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Bond Market and Crude Oil Pricing Correlation Weakens - The "seesaw" between oil prices and long - term interest rates starts to fail. In the context of high or rising oil prices, long - term interest rates no longer rise significantly in sync. The negative correlation between oil prices and long - term interest rates has weakened, indicating that the market's sensitivity to "imported inflation" is rapidly decreasing, and the main pricing of re - inflation may be over, which may signal a new round of repair rally [6][13]. - The 30 - year Treasury bond yield pricing model shows that PPI has a significant positive impact on ultra - long - term interest rates, but the elasticity is limited. Assuming the PPI year - on - year growth rate turns positive to around 0% in March, the fitted yield of the 30Y Treasury bond only rises slightly to around 2.34%. As of March 18, the yield of the 30Y Treasury bond was 2.36%, and the yield of the 30Y Treasury bond active bond was about 2.29%. The market has fully priced in the imported inflation expectation, and the marginal driving force of oil prices on long - term interest rates has weakened [17]. Trading Institutions Hold Few Ultra - Long Bond Chips - From January to March 2026, the proportion of funds' holdings of 3 active 30Y Treasury bonds mostly fluctuated between 7% - 10%, significantly lower than the phase high of 16.03% on November 14, 2025. On March 17, it dropped to 8.43%. The scale of securities firms' proprietary lending of 30Y Treasury bonds has increased, but the selling positions of funds are limited. When the short - selling effectiveness of securities firms weakens, they need to buy back bonds, which will bring some buying power. The trading direction of securities firms' proprietary trading is volatile, and the selling strength of funds is weaker than that of securities firms, so the room for the 30Y Treasury bond to fall further is limited [6][22]. Ultra - Long Bonds May Enter the Desirable Allocation Range of Allocation Investors after Correction - For banks, 30 - year Treasury bonds have significant advantages due to low taxes and no need to set aside capital. After considering all costs, the 30Y Treasury bond yield is more advantageous at present. For insurance companies, the purchase volume of 30Y Treasury bonds is affected by the net supply of local bonds and the yield of 30Y Treasury bonds. When the yield of 30Y Treasury bonds is high, insurance companies tend to increase their purchases or reduce their sales. The static nominal yield of 30Y Treasury bonds has a 36bp safety cushion compared with the liability - side cost of insurance companies, with sufficient allocation value [27][28].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [11] Core Insights - The recent surge in iron ore prices has opened up cost advantages for short-process steel production, while the medium-term direction towards carbon neutrality is clear, benefiting the graphite electrode sector [2][8] - The recovery pace of steel production post-holiday is slower than last year, with a notable increase in steel prices due to low inventory levels and rising iron ore costs [5][6] - The supply of graphite electrodes is expected to remain rigid in the short term, with a significant supply cycle of over six months, leading to potential supply-demand gaps if demand increases [2][8] Summary by Sections Iron Ore Price Dynamics - Iron ore prices have risen significantly due to restrictions on BHP Newman fines, which are crucial for Chinese buyers, leading to tightened liquidity and price increases [6][7] - The ongoing trade disputes between China and BHP may result in a short-term impact, but the long-term price increase of iron ore lacks fundamental support due to high port inventories and expected supply increases from major miners [8] Steel Production and Demand - The recovery in steel production is lagging behind last year, with a 3.65% increase in production week-on-week but a 4.41% decrease year-on-year [5] - The apparent consumption of major steel products has increased by 18.55% week-on-week but decreased by 10.58% year-on-year, indicating a mixed demand recovery [5] Graphite Electrode Market - Graphite electrodes are essential for short-process steel production, and their demand is expected to grow as steel prices rise and production costs are optimized [2][8] - The current inventory levels in the graphite electrode industry are low, and any increase in demand could lead to a supply shortage due to the lengthy production cycle [8]