1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 利率上行，地方付息压力怎么看？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Summary] 2025 年以来利率上行抬高了地方政府新增债券的发行成本，叠加土地收入下滑，导致其专项债 付息压力持续攀升，2025 年全国层面付息压力预计达 8.42%，正逼近 10%的政策警戒线。压力 呈现显著结构性分化，部分省份和多数地市已提前触及或超过风险阈值，债务风险呈现由基层 向省级上移趋势。尽管付息支出增长正在挤压其他财政支出空间，但由于存量债务基数庞大， 当前利率上升的边际冲击总体仍属可控，需市场利率在现有基础上再大幅上行超过 80 个基点， 才有可能会触及全国性警戒线或耗尽财政腾挪空间，因此预计地方付息压力短期内难以触发货 币政策宽松，降息或调整债券期限结构更多属于中长期应对逻辑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490525080001 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% ...

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 降息和美联储独立性，哪个更重要？ ——2026 年 1 月美联储议息会议点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] FOMC 会议对经济和就业的乐观态度、以及对关税通胀影响在今年年中消退的判断，意味着下 次降息时点或在 6 月会议上。较于降息，更应该关注美联储独立性的走向。特朗普意图通过鲍 威尔事件震慑新任主席，新任主席做"影子主席"的概率在增加，这意味着后续降息概率也在 提升。今年再度大幅降息或能推动美国经济超预期增长，但也为再通胀埋下隐患。于资产而言： 1）美联储独立性受损概率提升，进一步削弱美国资产吸引力，加大美元指数下行压力，黄金配 置价值再度凸显；2）降息预期增加，铜、铝等大宗商品以及新兴市场股市将进一步受益。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 黄帅 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490525070005 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 降息和美联储独立性，哪个更重要？ 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [13]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the in vitro diagnostics field for thirty years, establishing a comprehensive product matrix of instruments and reagents with excellent performance. It has expanded horizontally into molecular diagnostics and biochemical diagnostics, solidifying its competitive advantage as a leader in chemiluminescence [3]. - As a pioneer in the overseas expansion of chemiluminescence, the company has seen rapid growth in overseas installations and revenue, exporting to 167 countries and establishing 14 overseas subsidiaries to enhance local operational capabilities. The report anticipates a performance acceleration phase in the next 3-5 years due to increasing domestic localization rates and faster entry into core hospitals and markets abroad [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Chemiluminescence: Domestic and Overseas Growth - The global immunodiagnostics market is expected to grow from $18.9 billion in 2019 to $27.7 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.0%. The Chinese market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11.4% during the same period [8][33]. - In China, the market is expected to recover in 2026 after experiencing a decline in 2025 due to price reductions from centralized procurement and adjustments in value-added tax [8][41]. - The localization rate for chemiluminescence products has room for improvement, with over 70% already under centralized procurement. The localization rates for various categories are 66% for sex hormones, 59% for thyroid function, 53% for tumor markers, and 52% for glucose metabolism [8][47]. Product Performance and Market Share - The company maintains industry-leading product capabilities, with a coverage rate in top-tier hospitals increasing to 61%. It has developed a full range of products, including 12 models of instruments sold globally by mid-2025 [10]. - The innovative detection method has optimized reagent performance, achieving significant improvements in sensitivity and accuracy. The company’s market share in tumor markers and thyroid function projects is expected to grow significantly [10][84]. Overseas Market Localization and Growth - The company has established 14 overseas branches, focusing on localized operations. For example, in India, the company has built a robust agent network, with revenue expected to exceed 200 million yuan by 2024 [11]. - The overseas reagent segment is anticipated to be a significant growth driver, with overseas reagent revenue projected to reach 57% by 2024, compared to 80% in the domestic market [11]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.65 billion yuan, 2.0 billion yuan, and 2.41 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 26X, 21X, and 18X [11].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 2025Q4 公募基金持仓点评：保险配置比例环比 显著提升，被动持仓持续高于主动 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 基金非银板块港股配置环比持续提升，被动基金持仓市值占比高于主动型基金。1）保险配置比 例环比提升，港股主被动第一大持仓分别为中国太保 H、中国平安 H；2）港股券商配置比例环 比下降，个股仍集中于头部机构；3）多元金融持续低配，H 股持仓仍然集中于港交所。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 谢宇尘 程泽宇 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SAC：S0490524090001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_T 2025Q4 itle公募基金持仓点评：保险配置比例环比 2] 显著提升，被动持仓持续高于主动 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公募基金披露 2025 年四季度重仓持股情况。 事件评论 ...

行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title] 贵金属领衔，金属全面上行 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 继续推荐铜铝春季行情。商品端，降息预期与美国囤铜共振背景下，铜铝商品短期依然强势， 中期经济底部+供需结构优化，铜铝商品弹性可期：1）短期，尽管 CL 铜价差消失使得套利盘 往美国搬库存动力减弱，但本轮导致美国囤铜的本质动机——关税担忧，并未改变，故目前美 国囤铜趋势未改，叠加下周联储主席人选可能公布，因此，在当前宏观、微观多重催化共振下， 铜价仍易冲高，进而撑开了铝等补涨工业金属更大空间。2）中期，美联储引领全球趋势宽松促 进铜铝周期上行。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BWM115 分 ...

报告要点 [Table_Summary] 上证指数在 2026 年开年连续上涨后进入阶段性的震荡整固期，技术上 RSI 指标从超买区回落， 正寻求 10EMA 与 21EMA 均线支撑，换手率高位回落但全 A 成交额倍数指标尚未触及历史高 点，结构上看，商业航天及 AI 应用等热点板块仍待企稳。从中长期股债性价比看，市场估值仍 有较大上行空间，资金面上，杠杆资金高度聚焦科技方向，电子、通信、军工等方向融资余额 占比已创 2015 年以来新高，风格极值接近滚动 3 个月均值，短期市场轮动或将加速，金融、 消费风格或有望迎来反弹，中长期看好"科技+资源"双主线不变。 丨证券研究报告丨 市场策略丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 降温不改暖意，慢牛行远未已——A 股的情绪与 位置（1 月 W3） 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 李巍东 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 降温不改暖意，慢牛行远未已—— 2] A 股的情绪与 位置（1 月 W3） [ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size increased, with improved single - month profitability in December, accelerated inventory destocking, and increased production - sales ratio. The operating pressure may have marginally eased, and the enterprise profit repair trend is initially evident. However, the performance of revenue and profit margin is still divergent, the profit quality is somewhat restricted, and there are also differences among industries, with the mid - upstream performing well and the downstream under pressure. The "anti - involution" measures may have some effects, but the sustainability of profit repair depends on whether policies can stimulate the improvement of terminal demand and drive price stabilization and recovery. The bond market's reaction to the fundamentals may still show the characteristic of "being insensitive to positive news and sensitive to negative news", and the structural highlights of the economic fundamentals may limit the downward space of interest rates. The view of short - term long - bond oscillation is maintained [3][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In 2025, the cumulative operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size was 139.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%; the cumulative operating cost was 118.75 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%; the cumulative total profit was 7.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the operating profit margin increased by 0.02 pct to 5.31% compared with the first 11 months. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits increased by 18.4 pct to 5.3% compared with November [6] 3.2 Event Comments - **Profit growth rate recovery and strong seasonality in the month - on - month aspect**: From January to December 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth rate increased by 0.5 pct compared with November. The low - base effect contributed, and the month - on - month growth rate was also at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, indicating the improvement of enterprise profitability. The reasons for the recovery of the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in December are: active production (the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value rebounded and the capacity utilization rate improved), weakened drag on the price side (the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed and the production - sales ratio also improved slightly), and the year - on - year growth rate of the operating profit margin turned from negative to positive (an 8.6% year - on - year increase in December, a 22 pct increase compared with the previous month) [9] - **Marginal pressure on revenue and improved profit margin**: In December, the year - on - year revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size was - 3.2%, and the decline increased by 3 pct compared with November. In terms of cost and expenses, the cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size for the whole year was 85.31 yuan, and the expenses were 8.62 yuan. The total amount, cumulative year - on - year, and month - on - month growth rates all increased compared with January - November. In terms of profit efficiency, the cumulative value of the operating profit margin from January to December increased from the previous 5.29% to 5.31%, but the profit quality needs to be improved due to the year - on - year increase in cost and expenses and the impact of investment income [9] - **Differentiated profit performance**: In December, the non - ferrous and high - tech manufacturing industries performed well, while the downstream was still under pressure. Throughout the year, the black metal industry improved significantly, and the equipment manufacturing industry had a stable growth rate. By industry, the profits of the mid - stream non - ferrous, railway and shipbuilding, and downstream furniture manufacturing industries improved significantly in December. From the perspective of the two - year average growth rate, the profit growth rates of the mining, raw material, and equipment manufacturing industries all rebounded. Among them, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry recorded a profit of 109.83 billion yuan, a three - fold increase compared with the previous year; the mid - stream equipment manufacturing industry provided strong support, driving the profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 2.8 pct throughout the year; the high - tech manufacturing industry had a remarkable growth rate, with the profit of high - tech manufacturing industries above designated size increasing by 13.3% compared with the previous year, 12.7 pct higher than the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size. By business entity, the profit growth rates of small and medium - sized enterprises, foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises turned from negative to positive, and the profits of joint - stock and state - owned holding enterprises improved significantly [9] - **Both nominal and real inventories decreased, and inventory destocking accelerated**: In December, the year - on - year growth rate of finished product inventories of industrial enterprises was 3.9%, a decrease of 0.7 pct compared with the previous month. After excluding price factors, the real inventory was 5.9% year - on - year, a decrease of 1 pct compared with the previous month. The turnover days of finished products were 19.9 days, slightly lower than the previous month, and inventory turnover accelerated seasonally. By industry, some mid - stream manufacturing and downstream consumer goods industries were still in the process of inventory replenishment, while industries such as black metal and textile were actively destocking, and nearly 20% of industries destocked in December. The inventory - to - sales ratio decreased compared with the previous month. Notably, the production - sales ratio of industrial enterprises rebounded to near the median of the same period in history, and the asset - liability ratio continued to reach a new high in the same period over the years, which may reflect the marginal improvement of enterprise operating pressure [9]

- The report primarily discusses the new regulatory guidelines for performance benchmarks in public funds, issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) on January 22, 2026, which will take effect on March 1, 2026. These guidelines aim to standardize the selection, adjustment, disclosure, and supervision of performance benchmarks, filling a long-standing gap in the industry for systematic benchmark management [7][15][16] - The guidelines emphasize that performance benchmarks must align with the fund's investment objectives, scope, and style. Selected indices should meet requirements for representativeness, liquidity, and continuous disclosure. Once selected, benchmarks cannot be arbitrarily changed unless specific conditions are met, such as the benchmark becoming non-operational, and changes must be announced 30 days in advance [11][18] - Fund managers are required to establish internal control mechanisms covering benchmark selection, monitoring, correction, and accountability. Independent departments must monitor investment deviations, set differentiated thresholds, and take corrective actions or escalate to the investment decision committee when thresholds are breached. Additionally, fund managers' performance compensation will be adjusted if active equity funds underperform their benchmarks over the long term [11][18] - External supervision and information disclosure are also strengthened. Custodian institutions must monitor fund operations and alert regulators to any violations. Sales institutions must present benchmark performance alongside fund performance, and evaluation agencies must incorporate benchmarks into performance rankings and evaluations. Fund contracts and periodic reports must detail the rationale for benchmark selection, its alignment with the fund's strategy, and performance differences. For one year after a benchmark change, both old and new benchmarks must be disclosed for comparison [11][18] - The guidelines provide a one-year transition period for existing products to adjust benchmarks that do not meet the new requirements. Custodian responsibilities and system upgrades are given a six-month transition period, allowing sufficient time for industry adaptation [11][18] - The report highlights that the new guidelines will lead to clearer product positioning, reduce style drift, and shift industry competition towards compliance and professional investment capabilities. This will provide investors with better tools for evaluating fund performance and reduce the complexity of investment decisions. The industry is expected to transition from a scale-driven to a quality-driven approach, encouraging long-term capital inflows and promoting stable capital market development [16][19] - As of January 25, 2026, 11 active equity funds have adjusted their benchmarks since the draft guidelines were released on October 31, 2025. Adjustments include shifting from broad-based indices to sector or style-specific indices (e.g., consumption, growth, value) and adding Hong Kong stock indices to A-share indices. However, the majority of benchmarks remain concentrated in broad-based indices like CSI 300, CSI 800, and CSI 500, which collectively account for approximately 62% of active equity fund assets [2][19][20] - In the Hong Kong stock market, benchmarks are also concentrated in broad-based indices, with the Hang Seng Index and Hong Kong Composite Index (in RMB or HKD) accounting for about 85% of active equity fund assets. The Hang Seng Index is the most commonly used benchmark, representing approximately 7.94 trillion yuan in assets across 972 funds [23][24] - For fixed-income benchmarks, the most commonly used index is the ChinaBond Composite Full Price Index, followed by the CSI Comprehensive Bond Index and the National Bond Index [26][27]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨银行 [Table_Title] 从主动基金 Q4 持仓看配置思路 ——银行股配置重构系列九 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025Q4 主动基金并未进一步减仓银行股，配置比例环比基本稳定，主要反映市场风险偏好回 落。但我们预计 2026Q1 配置比例可能进一步降低，主要风险偏好大幅回升，银行股年初的相 对收益明显落后。从 2025Q4 个股配置比例来看，基本面趋势成为核心选股思路，确立零售资 产质量拐点和业绩预期向好的宁波银行获得明显加仓，今年以来领涨。近期宽基指数基金流出 等资金面因素造成银行股超跌，建议把握优质城商行低位的配置机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 从主动基金2]Q4 持仓看配置思路 ——银行股配置重构系列九 [Table_Summary2] 2025Q4 主动基金并未明显减仓银行股，预计今年 ...

Group 1 - The overall fund position decreased marginally in Q4 2025, with a significant increase in the allocation to the CSI 300 index [6][14][23] - The allocation to the ChiNext board increased by 1.35 percentage points to 20.49%, while the allocation to the main board decreased by 1.17 percentage points to 65.64% [14][21] - The allocation to cyclical sectors increased, while technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors saw a decrease in allocation [7][27] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, public funds increased their allocation to cyclical sectors and reduced their allocation to technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors [7][24] - The allocation to materials and mining sectors increased by 3.11 percentage points to 13.51%, while the allocation to information technology and hardware decreased by 2.45 percentage points to 26.23% [27][32] - The telecommunications sector saw an increase in allocation, while the electronics, healthcare, and media sectors experienced a significant decline [7][32] Group 3 - The allocation to high-dividend sectors increased, with the high-dividend industry holding rising by 1.18 percentage points to 5.88% [7] - The allocation to export-related sectors showed mixed results, with an increase in home appliances by 0.18 percentage points to 2.73% and a decrease in semiconductors by 0.39 percentage points to 12.52% [7] - The allocation to core assets decreased, particularly in the power and new energy equipment and food and beverage sectors [7][24] Group 4 - The concentration of holdings among the top five stocks increased to 15.61%, up by 2 percentage points from Q3 2025 [23] - The allocation to the telecommunications sector was notably increased, while the allocation to AI applications and quantum technology sectors was reduced [7][32]