丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨宇通客车（600066.SH） [Table_Title] 宇通客车 11 月销量点评：总量同环比提升，维 持全年销量目标，期待 12 月份放量 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年 11 月客车销量。宇通 11 月销售客车 4058 辆，同比+8.6%，环比+33.5%， 其中大中客车销量 3451 辆，同比+25.8%，环比+40.2%；2025 年 1-11 月共销售客车 4.1 万 辆，同比+6.1%，大中客销量 3.3 万辆，同比+0.7%。全球客车龙头，长期成长性较好+持续高 分红能力，凸显投资价值。国内市场，座位客车持续增长，"以旧换新"政策加码，促进新能源 公交增长；海外市场，全球化+高端化战略推进，出口凸显盈利水平，支撑公司业绩持续提升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [ ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨比亚迪（002594.SZ） [Table_Title] 比亚迪 2025 年 11 月销量点评：总销量环比持 续增长，出海销量达 13 万辆超预期 报告要点 高伊楠 张扬 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 比亚迪（002594.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Summary] 11 月销量环比持续增长，出海销量超 13 万辆，创历史新高。公司 11 月整体销量 48.0 万辆， 同比-5.3%，环比+8.7%，乘用车销量 47.5 万辆，同比-5.8%，环比+8.7%。分品牌来看，11 月 海洋王朝销量环比改善，11 月海洋王朝/方程豹/腾势销量分别为 42.4/3.7/1.3 万辆，同比分别- 12.7%/+339.0%/+32.5%，环比分别+7.2%/+20.5%/+30.8%，11 月仰望销量 703 辆，同比大幅 提升 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨长城汽车（601633.SH） [Table_Title] 长城汽车点评：11 月销量 13.3 万辆，新坦克 400 贡献增量，出口再创新高 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长城汽车 2025 年 11 月销量 13.3 万辆，同比+4.6%，环比-6.9%，其中出口销量 5.7 万辆，销 量占比达 43.0%，新能源销量 4.0 万辆，新能源乘用车销量占比达 34.2%。公司加速全球化布 局，坚定新能源转型，持续的新车周期有望推动公司销量与业绩改善。长期来看，公司四大拓 展战略打开销量长期增长空间，智能化转型开启全产业链盈利空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 长城汽车（601633.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 长城汽车点评：2] 11 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan [9] Core Insights - In Q3 FY2025, Meituan's revenue reached 954.9 billion CNY, which was below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 974.7 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2%. The adjusted net loss was 160.1 billion CNY, exceeding the expected loss of 139.6 billion CNY [6][10] - The report highlights that the competitive pressure in the food delivery sector has peaked, and as subsidies narrow, the focus will shift towards user retention and brand recognition, which are crucial for long-term repurchase rather than new customer acquisition [2][10] - The report projects Meituan's overall revenue for 2025-2027 to be 3,640.67 billion CNY, 4,084.78 billion CNY, and 4,551.56 billion CNY, with adjusted net profits of -115.25 billion CNY, 215.34 billion CNY, and 445.67 billion CNY respectively [2][10] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Core local business revenue was 674 billion CNY, below the consensus estimate of 692 billion CNY, with an operating loss of 141 billion CNY compared to the expected loss of 126 billion CNY. The operating profit margin was -20.9% [10] - New business revenue was 280 billion CNY, slightly below the expected 286 billion CNY, with a year-on-year operating loss increase of 24.5% to 13 billion CNY [10] Food Delivery and Flash Purchase - The core local business saw a significant operating loss of approximately 191 billion CNY in Q3, with the average order value (AOV) for high-priced orders (above 15 CNY) accounting for two-thirds of the gross transaction value (GTV) [10] - The report emphasizes that user stickiness and brand recognition are essential for the platform's capabilities, and future competition will likely focus on operational efficiency and service quality [10] In-store Dining and Travel - The in-store dining and travel segment contributed approximately 180 billion CNY in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 12%. The operating profit was 51 billion CNY, with a profit margin of 28% [10] New Business Initiatives - Meituan's new business, Keeta, officially launched operations in Brazil, with expectations of manageable investment levels. The report anticipates that Keeta could contribute significantly to Meituan's GTV in the long term [10]

联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] 锂电材料深度：产业望迎来大周期拐点 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 历经几年锂电下游需求的快速增长，上游材料端有望迎来大周期拐点。我们看好布局磷矿石、 工业级磷酸一铵、磷酸铁和（或）磷酸铁锂的企业云天化、兴发集团、川恒股份、云图控股、 万华化学、龙佰集团；PVDF 行业巨化股份、东岳集团；DMC 行业华鲁恒升；VC、六氟磷酸 锂、LiSFI 行业天赐材料、新宙邦等。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 邬博华 曹海花 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BQK482 叶之楠 王明 王呈 SAC：S0490520090003 SAC：S0490521030001 SAC：S0490525040004 SFC：BVA881 王晓振 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 33 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6][7]. Core Views - In November, the company delivered 70,327 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 75.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%. This marks a new historical high for the company [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from a strong domestic new car cycle, which will drive continuous sales growth. Additionally, the collaboration with Stellantis will facilitate a light-asset overseas expansion, opening up global sales opportunities [6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The cumulative sales from January to November reached 536,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 113.4%, surpassing the annual target of 500,000 vehicles ahead of schedule [6][7]. Product Launches - The company officially launched the Lafa5 model on November 27, priced between 97,800 to 121,800 CNY, continuing its strategy of offering high value for price [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see significant growth in sales and profitability due to a robust new car cycle and an expanding product matrix. The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 630 million, 5.01 billion, and 8.37 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 108.7X, 13.8X, and 8.2X [6][7]. Market Expansion - The company has established over 700 sales and service points across approximately 30 international markets, including Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific, with a significant presence in Europe [6][7]. Technological Investment - The company has increased its investment in intelligent driving, with a nearly 100% increase in team size and computational resources in the first half of 2025 [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The report highlights that Wushang Group's acquisition of Hangzhou Xiaodian Technology Co., Ltd. aims to enhance the technological empowerment of traditional retail formats and improve long-term competitiveness [10][13] - The acquisition involves a shareholding range of 70%-100%, with the final transaction price to be determined in formal agreements [2][6] - Hangzhou Xiaodian specializes in shared charging, storage lockers, smart travel, and smart energy services, creating a nationwide high-frequency offline traffic perception network [13] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of digital transformation among retail enterprises, focusing on improving operational efficiency of existing stores [13] Summary by Sections Event Description - Wushang Group announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Wuhan Jiangtun Smart Technology Co., Ltd., signed an intention agreement to acquire Hangzhou Xiaodian Technology, aiming for industry integration and capital cooperation [2][6] Event Commentary - The acquisition is expected to integrate Xiaodian's extensive offline traffic network and digital capabilities, addressing challenges in traffic conversion and intelligent management, thereby reconstructing the "people-goods-scene" ecosystem [13] - Retail companies are increasingly focusing on digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency, with examples from Tianhong and Chongqing Department Store showcasing successful digital initiatives [13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that enhancing operational management efficiency is essential for long-term competitiveness in the labor-intensive retail sector [13] - The industry is transitioning from rapid expansion to a phase of stable growth and market competition, which will test companies' product strength and refined operational capabilities [13]

Core Insights - The report focuses on two historical gold bull market cycles: 1975-1980 and 2005-2011, analyzing the correlation and divergence between gold and U.S. equities during different phases and the underlying driving mechanisms [3][17]. - Three core variables influencing the relationship between gold and U.S. equities are identified: U.S. dollar credit, monetary policy cycles, and the evolution of risk events [3][17]. Framework 1: Major Asset Allocation Strategy - Utilizing Martin J. Pring's business cycle framework, the U.S. economy from 1975 to present is segmented into six cycles: depression, recovery, prosperity, overheating, stagflation, and recession [6][29]. - In the depression phase, bonds outperform due to declining economic and inflation conditions; during recovery, equities become the core allocation as economic stability and declining inflation support growth [6][29]. Framework 2: Global Monetary Easing and Asset Rotation Strategy - Historical data reveals that post-economic crises, the recovery sequence of various resource prices follows their proximity to end-user demand [7][18]. - After the 2008 financial crisis, gold stabilized first due to its safe-haven attributes, followed by commodities with both financial and industrial characteristics, and finally assets closely tied to real demand [7][18]. Gold Bull Market Cycle Analysis - The first gold bull market (1975-1980) was driven by stagflation, with gold prices increasing by 242%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 98% rise [32][37]. - The second bull market (2005-2011) was characterized by the subprime crisis and quantitative easing, evolving through four phases: pre-crisis coordination, crisis-induced divergence, policy-driven coordination, and renewed divergence amid rising risks [17][32]. Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts may benefit both U.S. equities and gold, with a favorable monetary environment likely to boost equity valuations and resource prices [9][18]. - However, there is a caution regarding the internal conflict between gold and technology stocks, particularly if AI investments do not enhance productivity and fiscal sustainability, which could lead to market volatility [9][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heavy truck industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The heavy truck industry continues to experience high prosperity driven by the vehicle replacement policy, with significant year-on-year growth in sales and exports [9][19][73] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In October 2025, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 106,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 59.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.6%. Registration sales were 70,000 units, up 57.0% year-on-year but down 15.9% month-on-month. Exports totaled 37,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.4% and a month-on-month increase of 13.9% [9][19][73]. Three Driving Forces 1. **Oil and Gas Price Differential**: The oil and gas price differential has decreased, with the price difference remaining around 3,000 yuan/ton throughout 2025. As of November 10, 2025, the price differential was 2,470.7 yuan, marking a low for the year [33][37]. 2. **New Energy Penetration**: The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks continues to grow, with October 2025 registration sales reaching 20,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 156.7% [51][55]. 3. **Strong Demand in Asia and Africa**: Exports to Asia and Africa have seen robust demand, with heavy truck exports in October 2025 reaching 37,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 39.4% [73][76]. Inventory Management - Inventory levels are being effectively reduced, with both enterprise and channel inventories showing a downward trend. In October 2025, enterprise inventory decreased by 200 units, while channel inventory fell by 100 units [14]. Market Share and Sales by Major Companies - The top three heavy truck manufacturers in October 2025 were China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, FAW Group, and Dongfeng Motor Corporation, with wholesale sales of 28,000 units, 24,000 units, and 15,000 units respectively. Their market shares were 26.5%, 22.5%, and 14.0%, reflecting year-on-year increases [12][27]. Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - The registration volume of natural gas heavy trucks in October 2025 was 21,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 137.9%. The penetration rate for natural gas heavy trucks reached 30.1%, up 10.2 percentage points year-on-year [37][45]. New Energy Heavy Trucks - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks reached 28.3% in October 2025, with significant growth in sales of new energy tractors and dump trucks [51][55]. Export Performance - Heavy truck exports in October 2025 were 37,000 units, with Africa and Asia being the largest markets, accounting for 44.5% and 41.8% of total exports respectively [73][76].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [6] Core Insights - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket is expected to accelerate the development of commercial aerospace in China, with 2027-2028 projected as a pivotal year for the industry [2][10] - The Zhuque-3 rocket, designed for large constellation networking tasks, demonstrates significant capabilities including a reusable design and a payload capacity of no less than 18 tons for near-Earth orbit [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring capital expenditure changes among downstream operators, as well as focusing on the related industrial chains of Shanghai Yuanxin and Zhuque-3 [2][10] Summary by Sections Event Description - On December 3, 2025, the Zhuque-3 rocket successfully completed its flight mission, marking a significant milestone in China's commercial aerospace efforts [4] Event Commentary - The Zhuque-3 rocket is a new generation of low-cost, high-capacity, and reusable launch vehicle, which is expected to support major national aerospace projects and satellite internet deployment [10] - The report highlights the stable and reliable performance of the rocket during its flight, although there was an issue with the vertical recovery attempt of the first stage [10] - The rapid development of commercial aerospace in China is anticipated, with a focus on the advancements in large thrust reusable rockets by private enterprises and research institutions [10]