%% %% research.95579.com 联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] 碳中和系列："十五五"碳达峰决胜期，政策深化 下的投资机遇 %% %% 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 在"双碳"战略的顶层设计与全国碳市场逐步深化的共同驱动下，中国经济的绿色转型已从理念 倡导进入实质性攻坚阶段。我们认为，这一波澜壮阔的转型进程将系统性地催生多层次、长周 期的产业投资机遇；其核心逻辑并非局限于单一赛道，而是围绕"能源系统重塑、工业绿色溢价、 降碳技术放量与配套服务崛起"四大维度展开的立体化投资图谱。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 魏凯 赵超 SFC：BQT627 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490522030001 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BRP550 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BUT911 SAC ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [10]. Core Insights - The construction industry is experiencing accelerated concentration, with state-owned enterprises leveraging scale, industrial chain advantages, and policy support to squeeze the survival space of small and medium-sized private enterprises [2][4]. - Sub-sectors like landscaping engineering are under dual pressure from declining demand and intensified competition, leading to weakened revenues, profit pressures, and deteriorating financial structures [2][4]. - Some companies are leveraging low-efficiency asset restructuring, financial endowments, and business associations to strategically transition towards new infrastructure sectors, guided by policy directions [2][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Concentration and Challenges - The concentration of the construction industry is continuously increasing, with the market share of state-owned construction enterprises rising from 46.9% in 2020 to 51.7% in 2024, while their output value share increased from 36.3% to 43.1% [4][15]. - The growth rate of infrastructure and fixed asset investment is declining, with a projected year-on-year decrease of -1.48% for infrastructure investment in 2025 [4][15]. - State-owned enterprises benefit from lower financing costs due to policy advantages and credit ratings, while private enterprises face high leverage and liquidity issues, necessitating a transformation [4][23]. Sub-sector Analysis and Transformation Factors - The report identifies sub-sectors with poor financial performance, particularly landscaping, building decoration, and engineering consulting, as having strong transformation needs [5][28]. - Landscaping and decoration sectors are experiencing declining revenues and high operational leverage, while the engineering consulting sector, despite slight revenue growth, shows high overall valuations indicating significant internal differentiation [5][28]. Transformation Directions and Methods - To achieve effective transformation, companies should align with national strategic directions, focusing on "hard technology" sectors like AI and blockchain, and "new consumption" sectors that cater to public demand [6][46]. - Common transformation methods include mergers and acquisitions, establishing subsidiaries for independent R&D, expanding existing qualifications and businesses, and forming strategic alliances [7][51]. Potential Transformation Targets - Companies with abundant cash flow, sufficient credit limits, and underperforming main businesses are identified as potential transformation targets, particularly in landscaping, building decoration, and engineering consulting sectors [8][46]. Key Support Factors for Transformation - Sufficient cash flow and credit limits are crucial for enabling potential transformations, allowing companies to quickly capture policy opportunities and reduce reliance on high-interest external financing [46][47]. Revitalizing Inefficient Assets - Inefficient assets can serve as low-cost entry points into new infrastructure sectors, with many old factories and idle warehouses meeting the requirements for transformation into data centers or energy storage bases [48][49]. New Shareholder Involvement - The introduction of new major shareholders is a focal point in the transformation of the construction industry, with examples of companies optimizing their ownership structures to leverage state resources and accelerate transitions into new sectors [51][52].

行业研究丨深度报告丨房地产 [Table_Title] 周期调整的下半场 ——房地产总量预测框架及趋势展望 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 历经 4 年多的快速调整，中国房地产行业主要总量指标较高点均有明显下降，参考国际经验和 需求中枢，当前大概率已进入调整周期的下半场。预计 2026 年仍有挑战，但下半场特征愈发 明显，销售、开工等前端指标同比降幅有望收窄，而竣工等后端指标压力相对更大；若政策力 度超预期，则会有相对更好表现。当前股票位置较底部的溢价并不大，重视具备轻库存、好区 域和产品力的优质房企，以及拥有稳定现金流的经纪龙头、商业地产和央国企物管。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 宋子逸 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490522080002 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 周期调整的下半场 2] ——房地产总量预测框架及趋势展望 [Table_S ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Insights - The sales volume of sanitation equipment in 2025 is projected to reach 79,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, marking the first year of positive growth since 2021. Notably, sales of new energy sanitation vehicles are expected to increase by 76.8%, with a cumulative penetration rate of approximately 21.7% [3][6][18] - The recovery in sales is primarily attributed to the advancement of national debt reduction policies, which are expected to further enhance the demand for sanitation equipment. Additionally, the "14th Five-Year Plan" carbon reduction policies are anticipated to drive the penetration and economic viability of new energy sanitation equipment [3][8][9] Summary by Sections Overview - In 2025, the sanitation equipment sales are expected to grow by 11.5%, with new energy sanitation vehicles experiencing a significant increase of 76.8%. The total sales volume is projected at 79,000 units, with December alone seeing a sales figure of 10,064 units, a 45.2% increase year-on-year [6][18][21] Market Structure - The market concentration for sanitation equipment in 2025 is indicated by a CR10 of 55.4%, a decrease from 58.6% in 2024. Major players include Yingfeng Environment with a market share of 17.0%, Yutong with 3.9%, and Fulongma with 3.8%. In the new energy segment, the CR10 is higher at 67.7%, with Yingfeng Environment leading at 30.6% [7][26][30] Electrification - The penetration rate of electric sanitation equipment in pilot cities is expected to reach approximately 31.6% in 2025. Excluding Xiong'an New Area, pilot cities are projected to account for 36.2% of total sales, with cities like Zhengzhou and Shenzhen showing significant electric penetration rates of 57.3% and 48.9% respectively [7][33][34] Marginal Changes - The effects of debt reduction are gradually being transmitted, with expectations for further increases in sanitation equipment sales in 2026. The core reason for the recovery in 2025 sales is attributed to the easing of local government financial pressures due to debt reduction policies [8][9] - New energy sanitation equipment is expected to benefit from carbon reduction policies, with significant reductions in emissions compared to traditional fuel vehicles, enhancing its attractiveness in the market [8][9][21] Investment Logic - The growth rate of the sanitation equipment industry is primarily constrained by local fiscal and policy conditions. The dual logic of reduced local fiscal pressure from debt reduction and increased penetration of new energy sanitation vehicles driven by carbon reduction policies presents a favorable outlook for the industry [9][12]

联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] Robotaxi 系列深度（一）：千亿星辰，商业竞速 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 25 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Summary] Robotaxi 具有理论上更高的行驶安全性、更低的运营成本以及具有运营/体验的优势，从传统出 租车/网约车向 Robotaxi 发展是 AI 发展的重要应用。当前行业的加速发展，是政策许可+技术 发展+商业化推动的共振结果。预计 2030 年国内 Robotaxi 保有量有望达到约 52 万辆，共享出 行车队渗透率约 10%，市场空间约 902 亿元。商业化落地验证是短中期跟踪 Robotaxi 行业的 核心主线，行业焦点从车内无安全员运营转向关注实现单车经济效益的能力。核心关注在城市 牌照拓展、车辆规模扩张及综合运营效率方面表现突出的行业参与者。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 韩轶超 宗建树 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S04905 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and gas industry is "Positive" and is maintained [11] Core Insights - The supply side will remain tight, which is a dominant factor for oil prices in 2026, while the demand side shows resilience. The willingness to increase production in shale oil is limited due to insufficient intent and questionable capacity. OPEC's strong intention to cut production to support prices is evident, and geopolitical tensions may impact production and exports from oil-producing countries [3][6][7][9] Supply and Demand Analysis - In 2025, the international oil price exhibited a "N" shaped trend due to weak supply and demand affected by geopolitical disturbances. The price dropped from $74.64 per barrel to $60.23 per barrel, then rose to $78.85 per barrel before falling again to $60.85 per barrel by the end of the year [20] - For 2026, the supply side is expected to remain tight, with a slight easing in supply-demand balance compared to Q4 2025. The oil price is projected to stabilize between $60 and $65 per barrel, excluding geopolitical premiums [9][6] - The U.S. shale oil breakeven price has significantly increased by 25% to $65 per barrel compared to Q1 2018, limiting the ability to increase production. The efficiency of new wells is improving slowly, and the number of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells has decreased significantly [25][35][41] - OPEC's ability to control prices through production cuts has strengthened, especially as U.S. production growth has not rebounded to previous levels. OPEC is likely to maintain a certain level of production cuts to support prices [7][61] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving countries like Iran, may severely impact production and exports. The U.S. has indicated intentions to sanction entities assisting Iran in illegal oil sales, which could further influence oil supply and prices [67][68][72] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil transport route, and any disruption could significantly affect global oil prices due to the high dependency of major oil-exporting countries on this passage [72][74] Demand Forecast - Global oil demand is expected to stabilize in 2025, with a slight decrease in growth to approximately 1.14 million barrels per day in 2026. The demand is supported by economic policies in India and resilient demand in the U.S. [8][30]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [10]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the LPG deep processing sector in South China, leveraging its advantageous geographical location and innovative development to achieve rapid growth [3][6]. - The product matrix of the company is continuously improving, with key products including isooctane, MTBE, and butanediol, among others. The management team, with a strong technical background, emphasizes innovation to drive the company's growth [6][20]. - The company is actively expanding its market presence through chain extension, industrial collaboration, and overseas demand expansion, aiming to create new growth engines in a competitive market [3][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in October 2009 and listed in 2020, focuses on the research and production of organic chemical products using LPG as raw material. Its main production bases are located in the Huizhou Daya Bay petrochemical area [20][23]. Product and Market Position - The company has achieved comprehensive utilization of LPG carbon four components, with a diverse product range categorized into three main types: acetate esters, gasoline additives, and the succinic anhydride industry chain [7][23]. - The company has a significant market share in MTBE, becoming the largest exporter in China, and is expanding its production capacity to meet growing overseas demand [8][10]. Financial Performance - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be -39 million, 402 million, and 760 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.4X and 6.0X for 2026 and 2027 [10]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.701 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.51%, despite facing profit pressure due to consumption tax impacts on isooctane [43]. Research and Development - The company places a strong emphasis on R&D, with over 15% of its workforce dedicated to innovation. The management team consists of individuals with substantial technical expertise, which supports the company's focus on product upgrades and cost reduction through technological advancements [30][34].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the convertible bond market in 2025 experienced a strong performance, following the equity market, with a total increase of nearly 20% by December 24, 2025, although it slightly underperformed compared to the broader A-share market which had a maximum increase of 31.9% [17] - The report highlights a significant shift in market style from defensive dividend stocks to technology growth stocks, driven by a recovery in risk appetite, which has led to an increase in the central price of convertible bonds and a compression of the conversion premium rate [8][19] - The supply-demand mismatch in the market is noted, with a slowdown in new bond issuance and a significant number of high-quality older bonds being redeemed, leading to a scarcity of quality assets and a heightened "old bond" phenomenon [8][25] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the macro liquidity environment is expected to remain accommodative, with potential support from both domestic and international monetary policies, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][10] - The report suggests that the commencement of a Fed rate-cutting cycle could reshape the asset allocation landscape, benefiting cyclical resource sectors and technology growth sectors, particularly in the AI industry, which is expected to replicate the growth trajectory of the mobile internet era [10][9] - The consumer sector is characterized by resilient earnings but facing valuation pressures, with low price-to-book ratios and stable return on equity providing a safety cushion for investments [10][9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry in China is at a critical stage of transitioning from technology incubation to industrial explosion, driven by policy support and technological breakthroughs. Major commercial aerospace companies are expected to undergo a series of IPOs, which will facilitate industry development through capital operations. Attention is recommended on core suppliers across the industry chain, particularly those related to satellite applications [2][11]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Recently, three companies, Xinghe Power, Interstellar Glory, and Tianbing Technology, updated their IPO guidance progress. Following the acceptance of Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, five domestic commercial aerospace companies focusing on launch vehicles have initiated the IPO process [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The financing market is active, reflecting the high prosperity of China's commercial aerospace industry. In 2025, the total financing amount for the commercial aerospace industry reached 18.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32%. The most popular financing areas include satellite applications (8.7 billion), rocket manufacturing (6.17 billion), and satellite manufacturing (3 billion) [11]. Future Outlook - The commercial aerospace market in China is projected to reach 1.2 trillion by 2024 and is expected to exceed 3.5 trillion by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 18%. The active financing market indicates a positive outlook for the development of commercial aerospace, and with continuous breakthroughs in reusable technology, the market is likely to expand further [11].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the media industry, highlighting potential growth driven by policy improvements and AI advancements [4][7][17]. Core Insights - The media industry is characterized by a "supply determines demand" dynamic, with recent policy changes since 2022, particularly in the gaming sector, leading to a gradual recovery in supply and overall industry fundamentals [4][7][17]. - The introduction of the "Broadcasting 21 Measures" in August 2025 is expected to further enhance the supply side of the film and television industry, potentially marking a turning point in industry prosperity [7][25]. - AI technology is increasingly empowering production across various media sectors, significantly reducing costs and improving efficiency, which may lead to a new phase of growth in the industry [8][34][44]. Summary by Sections Policy Environment - The policy environment has shown marginal improvements, effectively addressing supply shortages in the media industry. Since 2022, the number of gaming licenses has been steadily increasing, and the "Broadcasting 21 Measures" aims to optimize the supply side of the film and television industry [7][25][27]. AI Empowerment - AI technology is being integrated into various media sectors, enhancing production efficiency and reducing costs. In gaming, AI is transitioning from a cost-cutting tool to a core element of gameplay innovation, while in advertising, AI has been validated by companies like Meta for improving return on investment [8][34][44]. Industry Performance - The media industry is expected to see significant performance improvements, with revenue and net profit showing positive growth starting in 2025. The gaming sector, in particular, has experienced accelerated growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching approximately 27.06 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 35.23% [48][49]. Index Analysis - The CSI Media Index focuses on marketing, advertising, cultural entertainment, and digital media, with a significant portion of its constituents in the gaming and advertising sectors. The index is expected to benefit from the ongoing integration of AI technology and favorable policy changes [9][58][61]. ETF Overview - The CSI Media ETF (512980), managed by GF Fund Management, is the largest in its category, providing a liquid investment vehicle for exposure to the media sector. As of January 16, 2026, the ETF's scale is approximately 9.96 billion yuan [10][94].