海外宏观 2025 年 3 月 17 日 海外宏观周报 美国通胀降温，关税威胁延续 证券分析师 | 钟正生 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520090001 | | | ZHONGZHENGSHENG934@pingan.com.cn | | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | | 范城恺 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060523010001 | 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 FANCHENGKAI146@pingan.com.cn 海外经济政策。1）美国：政策方面，美国对钢铁和铝加征 25%关税于 3 月 12 日正式生效，本周曾威胁对加拿大钢铝加征额外 25%关税；特朗普威胁 将对欧盟葡萄酒征收 200%关税。特朗普团队倾向推荐鲍曼任美联储监管副 主席。美国参议院投票通过支出法案，避免政府停摆。经济数据方面，美国 2 月 CPI 和核心 CPI 环比均录得 0.2%、均低于预期。美国 2 月 PPI 同比上 涨 3.2 ...

证券研究报告 持续关注业绩确定性强的白马股 投资策略 基于可选消费修复逻辑，我们认为，服装制造及出口相关企业或将迎来机遇，且服装及家居出海企业或将延续红利。 同时，服装品牌企业经过估值调整后，或将迎来新一轮行情。投资主线如下： 主线一：自上而下，优选市场份额提升及具备估值性价比的细分赛道头部企业。其中，推荐关注服装制造相关的出 口企业的投资机会。建议关注：申洲国际、华利集团、伟星股份等。 主线二：自下而上，优选业绩确定性较强及股息率较高的白马股。其中，建议重点关注有边际改善的服装品牌企业， 以及分红派息率稳健的家纺头部企业。建议关注：安踏体育、波司登等。 2025年3月16日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 周观点 轻工纺服行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 新消费团队 分析师：王源 S1060524010001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGYUAN468@pingan.com.cn 本周涨跌幅 本周回顾 上周纺服板块+3.95%，轻工板块+1.76%，同期沪深300指数+1.59%；在申万一级行业中，所有28个板块上涨，有3个板块下跌， 纺织服装行业在31个一级行业中涨跌幅排名第4位，轻工制造行业涨跌幅排名 ...

证券研究报告 实施提振消费专项行动，消费医疗有望迎来复苏 生物医药行业强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所生物医药团队 分析师： 叶寅投资咨询资格编号:S1060514100001邮箱：YEYIN757@PINGAN.COM.CN 倪亦道投资咨询资格编号:S1060518070001邮箱：NIYIDAO242@PINGAN.COM.CN 韩盟盟投资咨询资格编号:S1060519060002邮箱：HANMENGMENG005@PINGAN.COM.CN 裴晓鹏投资咨询资格编号:S1060523090002邮箱：PEIXIAOPENG719@PINGAN.COM.CN 何敏秀投资咨询资格编号:S1060524030001邮箱：HEMINXIU894@PINGAN.COM.CN 王钰畅投资咨询资格编号:S1060524090001邮箱：WANGYUCHANG804@PINGAN.COM.CN 曹艳凯投资咨询资格编号:S1060524120001邮箱：CAOYANKAI947@PINGAN.COM.CN 研究助理：臧文清一般证券从业资格编号:S1060123050058邮箱：ZANGWENQING222@PINGAN.C ...

地产、建材 2025 年 03 月 17 日 行业点评 中央明确更好满足住房消费需求，推动家装等以旧换新 中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》. 平安观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 点 评 地产：强于大市（维持） 建材：强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业年度策略报告*建材*弱现实与强预 期，关注供给侧变化——建材行业 2025 年年度策略 报告*强于大市 20241215 证券分析师 郑南宏 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521120001 ZHENGNANHONG873@pingan.com.cn 杨侃 投资咨询资格编号 S1060514080002 BQV514 YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn 事项： 证 券 研 究 报 告 推动房地产止跌回稳基调延续，城改提速释放刚性及改善需求。方案整体 延续此前两会政府工作报告中关于房地产的整体基调，明确提出更好满足 住房消费需求，持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳，加力实施城中村和危 旧房改造，充分释放刚性和改善性住房需求潜力。2024 年12 月住建部工 作会议表明城中村改造扩围至 300 多个城市，全年实 ...

证券研究报告 策略周报：短期市场风格趋向均衡 证券分析师 | 魏伟 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060513060001 | | --- | --- | | 陈骁 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 | | 张亚婕 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060517110001 | | 蒋炯楠 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120002 | 2025年3月16日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 1 近期动态|宏观数据：政府债带动社融多增，企业及居民信贷仍偏弱 2月金融数据：社融多增主要由政府债贡献，企业和居民信贷偏弱 | | | | | | | | 近六个月 | | | | | 上年同期 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新增规模（亿元） | | | 同比变化 | 25/02 | 25/01 | 24/12 | 24/11 | 24/10 | 24/09 | 24/02 | 24/01 | 23/12 | 23/11 | ...

前瞻性产业研究 2025 年 3 月 16 日 养老金融双周报（2025.03.10-2025.03.16） 欧盟养老金扩大国防股投资 证券分析师 平安观点： 风险提示： 本期重点：欧盟养老金扩大国防股投资 第一，美共和党参议员拟禁止美国养老金投资中国。印第安纳州参议员和 众议员提出了一项名为《保护美国人退休储蓄法案》的法案，旨在禁止受 《雇员退休收入保障法》（ERISA）监管的退休计划对被视为"外国对手国 家"的公司进行未来投资，这些国家包括中国、俄罗斯、朝鲜和伊朗。 第二，纽约州参议员要求 NYSRF 出售特斯拉股权。纽约州20 多名参议员 致信纽约州审计长，敦促他开始剥离纽约州养老基金（NYSRF）直接拥有 的特斯拉股票。该信函指出，特斯拉因反工会行为、企业透明度不足以及 职场歧视或不当行为等指控而受到批评。同时，马斯克领导唐纳德·特朗 普总统的政府效率部（DOGE）期间，参与了各个联邦机构的大规模裁员和 预算削减，导致特斯拉在其最忠实客户群体中的声誉下降。根据 CNBC报 道，特斯拉在 2024 年 2 月股价暴跌 28%；且有消息称特斯拉 2024 年四 季度利润同比下降 71%。鉴于特斯拉的持续波 ...

Core Viewpoints - The short-term market style is shifting towards balance, with A-shares showing a more even distribution across sectors while U.S. stocks continue to decline [2][3]. Recent Dynamics - The recent macro data indicates that government debt has contributed to an increase in social financing, while corporate and household credit remains weak. In February, new social financing increased by 737.4 billion yuan year-on-year, with a total of 2.23 trillion yuan added [4][5]. - The People's Bank of China has reiterated its intention to lower reserve requirements and interest rates at an opportune time, with a focus on supporting consumption and technological innovation [6][7]. Market Performance - In the last week, the A-share market continued its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.39% and the ChiNext Index declining by 0.97%. The consumer and cyclical sectors led the gains, with 28 out of 31 industries in the Shenwan classification showing increases [8][18]. - The leading sectors included beauty care, food and beverage, coal, textiles, and non-bank financials, with gains ranging from 3% to 9%. Conversely, the electronics, machinery, and computer sectors experienced declines [18][15]. Key Focus for Next Week - Attention will be on China's economic data for January and February, as well as the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in March [23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" for both real estate and building materials, maintained from previous assessments [1][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the central government's commitment to better meet housing consumption needs and to promote home renovation and upgrades [5]. - The real estate market is expected to stabilize, with urban renewal projects accelerating to release rigid and improvement demands [5]. - The report highlights the importance of expanding funding sources for housing stock purchases and the potential for local governments to have greater autonomy in these transactions [5]. - There is a focus on reducing housing provident fund loan rates to stimulate housing consumption demand [5]. - The promotion of "old-for-new" consumption in home decoration is anticipated to benefit retail building materials [5]. Summary by Sections Real Estate - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market and enhance housing consumption, with urban renewal projects planned for over 300 cities and 1,790 projects in 2025 [5]. - The report suggests that companies with lighter historical burdens and optimized inventory structures, such as China Overseas Development and China Resources Land, are likely to benefit [6]. Building Materials - The report notes a recovery in building material prices, indicating an improvement in the supply-side structure, which is expected to enhance profit margins for companies [6]. - Companies benefiting from subsidy policies in retail building materials include Sanke Tree and Arrow Home [6]. - The report anticipates that the profitability of building material companies will gradually improve due to price increases and a more favorable market structure [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [17]. Core Views - The company has a clear rhythm in electric vehicle production and is accelerating iterations in intelligent driving technology. The L series is set for a significant upgrade in 2025, focusing on intelligent driving hardware enhancements [11][10]. - The company is expected to launch two new electric SUV models, i8 and i6, in the second half of 2025, with a more mature market entry compared to previous models [11]. - The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to be a low point for profitability due to a decrease in delivery volumes and increased discounts, but the second half of 2025 may exceed market expectations with the new model launches [11]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 442.7 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, while the net profit for the same period was 35.2 billion CNY, reflecting a decline of 31.4% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 144.46 billion CNY in 2024 to 271.34 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.6% [6][14]. - Net profit is expected to recover from 80.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 232 billion CNY by 2027, indicating a significant rebound in profitability [6][14]. Key Financial Metrics - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 21.5% by 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve to 8.6% [14]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 11.3% in 2024 to 18.9% in 2027, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [14]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 27.6 in 2024 to 9.6 by 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [14]. Delivery and Production Insights - The company reported a Q4 2024 delivery volume of 159,000 units, which was slightly below previous guidance but showed a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [9]. - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to see a significant increase in delivery volumes, with expectations of 88,000 to 93,000 units, driven by promotional strategies [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a sales figure of 105.4 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position in the 100 billion yuan sales club despite a year-on-year decline of 16.3% [4]. - The company's revenue for 2024 was 59.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.95 billion yuan, down 48.2% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company has a relatively strong backlog with pre-sold properties amounting to 87.36 billion yuan and contract liabilities of 81.27 billion yuan [4]. - The company focuses on first-tier and strong second-tier cities for project acquisitions, securing six quality projects in key cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou [4]. - The company’s debt management remains prudent, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 70.3% and a net debt ratio of 58.5% [4][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards, with EPS estimates revised to 0.36 yuan for 2025 and 0.43 yuan for 2026 [4][8]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 14.3%, down 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 1.6% [3][8]. - The company’s long-term debt accounted for 84% of total interest-bearing debt, with a financing cost reduction of 26 basis points to 5.22% [4][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to decrease from 420.3 billion yuan in 2024 to 325.7 billion yuan by 2027 [7][9]. Key Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 4.8% in 2024 to 6.0% by 2027 [8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 16.1 times in 2025, decreasing to 12 times by 2027 [4][8]. - The company’s liquidity ratios indicate a current ratio of 2.0 in 2024, expected to decline to 1.6 by 2027 [8].