其 他 报 告 2025年03月27日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3369 | -0.04 | -1.60 | | 深证成份指数 | 10644 | -0.05 | -2.65 | | 沪深300指数 | 3919 | -0.33 | -2.29 | | 创业板指数 | 2140 | -0.26 | -3.34 | | 上证国债指数 | 223 | 0.08 | -0.03 | | 上证基金指数 | 7005 | -0.15 | -2.24 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 23483 | 0.60 | -1.13 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8654 | 0.44 | -1.53 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 22260 | -0.06 | 1.10 | | 道琼斯指数 | 424 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market is approaching the "April Decision," with a focus on fundamental changes and structural opportunities driven by policy implementation and industrial transformation [2][10] - The overall trend indicates that listed companies' profits are expected to remain under pressure in 2024, but economic growth may maintain a high level at the beginning of 2025, with some sectors showing signs of stabilization [7][10] - The AI industry chain is experiencing high demand, with sectors like TMT, machinery, defense, and innovative pharmaceuticals recommended for investment due to their fundamental support [2][10] Group 2: Industrial Insights - In early 2025, industrial enterprises' profits showed a slight improvement, driven by strong performance in equipment manufacturing and raw materials sectors, supported by new policies [3][13] - The industrial inventory cycle has restarted, indicating improved corporate expectations, with a projected continuation of inventory recovery in the first half of 2025 [13][15] - Manufacturing profits are stabilizing, particularly in raw materials and equipment manufacturing, while consumer goods manufacturing remains under pressure due to external demand fluctuations [14] Group 3: Social Security and Consumption - China's social security system has expanded significantly, positively impacting final consumption rates, but there are challenges in improving the quality of coverage for certain groups [17][19] - The current social security coverage for urban residents is insufficient, with a significant portion of flexible employment and low-income individuals not participating in the system [18][19] - Recommendations include lowering the entry barriers for social security participation and increasing subsidies for rural residents to enhance consumption willingness [19] Group 4: Company Performance - Sunshine Insurance reported a total premium income of 128.38 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 5.45 billion yuan, reflecting a strong performance [21][22] - China Pacific Insurance achieved a net profit of 45 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on optimizing business structure and maintaining steady growth [29][30] - Dongfang Cable's revenue reached 9.093 billion yuan in 2024, with a notable growth in high-end submarine cable competitiveness, indicating potential for international expansion [36]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Overview - In January-February 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 910.99 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, but the growth rate accelerated by 3.0 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[3] - The operating income of industrial enterprises increased by 2.8% year-on-year, which is 0.7 percentage points faster than the full year of 2024[8] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises decreased by 0.17 percentage points compared to the same period last year, contributing to a drag of 3.6 percentage points on profit growth, although this drag has reduced by 2.8 percentage points compared to 2024[10] Group 2: Sector Contributions - Manufacturing is the main support for profit stabilization, with profit growth in the manufacturing sector increasing by 8.7 percentage points to 4.8% compared to the entire year of 2024[16] - Raw materials manufacturing contributed 1.3 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth, with profits turning from decline to increase, indicating reduced costs supporting profits[19] - Equipment manufacturing contributed 1.4 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth, with a year-on-year profit increase of 5.4%[19] Group 3: Inventory and Debt Dynamics - By the end of February 2025, the inventory of finished goods in industrial enterprises increased by 4.2% year-on-year, up 0.9 percentage points from December 2024[24] - The growth rate of liabilities outpaced that of assets, with total assets and liabilities growing by 5.0% and 5.4% respectively, indicating improved corporate expectations[28] - Accounts receivable increased by 9.2% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing issues with delayed payments from local governments and inter-enterprise debts[28] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include the potential ineffectiveness of growth stabilization policies, overseas economic recession, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[33] - The recovery of the industrial output gap in the second half of 2024 suggests a basis for inventory growth in the first half of 2025[24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, with a current stock price of HKD 5.47 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 14.02 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was HKD 1.51 billion, up 12.5% year-on-year. The total proposed dividend for the year is HKD 0.18 per share [4][6]. - The company continues to expand its operational scale, with a managed area of 430 million square meters, a 7.4% increase year-on-year. The new signed contracts amounted to HKD 4.44 billion, with 63.3% of the new managed area coming from independent third parties [6][8]. - The report highlights an improvement in gross margin, which increased to 16.6%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to enhanced profitability in property management services [6][10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024 Revenue: HKD 14.02 billion, 2025: HKD 15.16 billion, 2026: HKD 16.32 billion, 2027: HKD 17.48 billion [5][8]. - 2024 Net Profit: HKD 1.51 billion, 2025: HKD 1.68 billion, 2026: HKD 1.84 billion, 2027: HKD 2.01 billion [5][8]. - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 16.6% in 2024, expected to reach 17.0% by 2027 [10]. - Net Margin: 10.8% in 2024, projected to increase to 11.6% by 2027 [10]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio: 11.0 in 2024, decreasing to 8.3 by 2027 [10]. - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio: 3.2 in 2024, expected to decline to 1.7 by 2027 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [10]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 9.093 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.38%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.008 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.81% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items decreased by 6.07% to 909 million yuan [4]. - The company has significant potential in the high-end submarine cable market, with major order breakthroughs in domestic projects and a robust order backlog of 17.975 billion yuan as of March 21, 2025 [7]. - The company has also made substantial progress in overseas markets, securing major orders in the UK and Europe, indicating strong growth potential in international markets [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 9,093 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 24.4%. The net profit for 2024 was 1,008 million yuan, with a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year. The gross margin for 2024 was 18.8%, down from 25.2% in 2023 [6][4]. - The company expects revenues to grow to 10,662 million yuan in 2025 and 13,438 million yuan in 2026, with projected net profits of 1,348 million yuan and 2,221 million yuan respectively [6]. Business Segments - The submarine cable business generated revenue of 2,778 million yuan in 2024, remaining flat year-on-year, while the submarine cable engineering business saw a 25% increase to 889 million yuan. The overall gross margin for the submarine cable business was 39.57%, reflecting a decline due to changes in product mix and increased export sales [7]. - The company has secured significant domestic orders, including major projects for high-voltage submarine cables, showcasing its competitive edge in the high-end submarine cable market [7]. Market Outlook - The report highlights a positive outlook for the offshore wind power sector, with expectations for continued growth in demand for submarine cables. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend due to its strong competitive position and order backlog [8]. - The company has established a wholly-owned subsidiary in the UK, aiming to expand its presence in the European market, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects [7].

相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业动态跟踪报告-非银行金融-险资 投资黄金试点开启，优化资产配置、分散投资风险- 强于大市 20250211 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-资负双驱，友 邦 2024 业绩增长强劲-强于大市 20250314 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-24H2 公募基金 保有量点评：股指型与债基表现亮眼，券商及第三 方市占率提升-强于大市 20250318 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-投资趋势性回 非银行金融 2025 年 03 月 27 日 行业点评 NBV 增、COR 升、投资稳，阳光 2024 业绩稳健 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 暖，众安 2024 承保盈利能力承压-强于大市 20250320 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-资负双驱，太 平 2024 业绩亮眼-强于大市 20250325 证券分析师 | 王维逸 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520040001 | | | BQC673 | | | WANGWEIYI059@pingan.com.cn | | 李冰婷 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S10605200400 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a cautious outlook with a focus on structural opportunities in sectors benefiting from AI and policy support. Core Insights - The report highlights that the A-share market is approaching a critical decision point in April, with increased focus on fundamental changes in the economy. It predicts continued pressure on corporate earnings in 2024, with a potential stabilization in profitability for certain sectors in 2025. [3][11] - The overall earnings growth for A-shares is projected to be -3% for 2024, with non-financial sectors experiencing a more significant decline of -24%. The report identifies agriculture, commerce, non-bank financials, and electronics as sectors with positive earnings growth. [11][23] - The AI industry chain is noted for its strong growth prospects, with demand for AI infrastructure and applications driving profitability in related sectors. [3][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring structural opportunities in sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), machinery, defense, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to benefit from policy support and improved fundamentals. [3][11] Summary by Sections Total Trends - The report forecasts that the profitability of listed companies will remain under pressure in 2024, with a potential GDP growth of 5.1% in Q1 2025. The overall earnings growth for A-shares is expected to be -3%, with non-financial sectors at -24%. [3][11] - Key sectors such as agriculture, commerce, non-bank financials, and electronics are projected to have earnings growth rates ranging from 20% to 540%. [11][23] Mid-level Observations - The AI industry chain is highlighted as having a favorable outlook, with demand for AI-related products and services driving growth. The report also notes improvements in the basic fundamentals of the non-ferrous metals sector and a recovery in the real estate chain. [3][11] - The report indicates that the coal and petrochemical sectors are showing signs of recovery, while the real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2025. [3][11] Micro-level Consumption - The report suggests that policy measures are expected to stimulate consumer demand, leading to a potential recovery in industry sentiment. The automotive sector is anticipated to benefit from supportive policies, particularly for new energy vehicles. [3][11] - The food and beverage sector is expected to see improved performance, particularly in the liquor segment, while the pharmaceutical sector is poised for growth due to the internationalization of domestic innovative drugs. [3][11] Market Outlook - The report advises investors to focus on structural opportunities as the market approaches the "April decision." It suggests that while the market may experience short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive due to policy support and industry transformations. [3][11]

事项： 宏观 2025 年 3 月 27 日 2025 年 1-2 月工业企业利润数据点评 工业补库存开启 证券分析师 钟正生 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090001 ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 2025 年 1-2 月份，规上工业企业实现利润总额 9109.9 亿元，累计同比下降 0.3%，增速较 2024 年全年加快 3.0 个百分点。 平安观点： 风险提示：稳增长政策落地效果不及预期，海外经济衰退，地缘政治冲突升级等。 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 2025 年开年，工业企业利润总量延续改善势头。结构上以装备制造和原材料 制造行业带动较强，得益于"两新"政策带来的需求支撑，上游采矿利润增 速回落也有助于中下游成本压力缓解。一个积极信号在于，工业企业库存周 期再次启动，资产和负债扩张也有提速，体现企业预期改善。从领先指标 ...

Group 1: Social Security System Achievements - China's social security system has become the largest in the world, significantly enhancing final consumption rates, which rose by 7.2 percentage points to 56.5% from 2010 to 2019[20] - By the end of 2024, basic pension insurance and medical insurance covered 1.066 billion and 1.326 billion people, respectively, achieving approximately three times the coverage compared to 2010[26] - The participation rate for basic medical insurance reached 94.2% by 2024, while basic pension insurance exceeded 95%, ahead of the "14th Five-Year Plan" target[26] Group 2: Quality of Coverage Issues - The quality of insurance coverage remains a concern, with only 80.6% and 57.6% of urban employees covered by pension and medical insurance, respectively, indicating a gap of approximately 9 million and 20 million people[45] - Rural residents' pension replacement rate is only 14.4%, insufficient to cover basic food expenses, while urban retirees receive an average pension that exceeds daily expenses by 2872 yuan[37] - The reimbursement rate for residents' medical insurance is lower than that for urban employees, leading to a significant disparity in medical consumption willingness[43] Group 3: Barriers to Participation - The current social security system does not mandate participation for flexible employment and self-employed individuals, resulting in a significant coverage gap among these groups[50] - The minimum contribution base for social security is often higher than the actual income of low-income individuals, increasing their financial burden and discouraging participation[58] - The average income of flexible employment individuals is only 44.4% of the average urban employee's salary, making it difficult for them to meet the social security contribution requirements[70]