Report Information - Report Title: "Deposit Certificate Weekly Report (0818 - 0824): Supply - Demand is Unfavorable, and Pricing Repair May be Difficult" [1] - Report Date: August 24, 2025 - Analyst: Zhou Guannan, Song Qi Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Considering the relatively active certificate of deposit supply, the constraint of the lower limit of funds, and the lack of unexpected support on the demand side, it may be difficult to repair the pricing. Given the relatively weak supply - demand structure and stable capital prices, it is expected that the certificate of deposit pricing will maintain a high - level volatile state. If the capital stratification pressure remains at a seasonal level, the pressure for a significant price increase of certificates of deposit may be controllable. The allocation value of 1 - year national and joint - stock certificates of deposit can be considered at the range of 1.65% to 1.7% [2] Summary by Directory Supply: Net Financing Declines, and Term Structure Shortens - This week (August 18 - 24), the issuance scale of certificates of deposit was 54.921 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 24.551 billion yuan (compared with - 13.246 billion yuan from August 11 - 17). The issuance proportion of state - owned banks decreased from 38% to 27%, while that of joint - stock banks increased from 21% to 25%. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased from 38% to 25%, and the weighted issuance term narrowed to 6.46 months (from 8.09 months). Next week (August 25 - 31), the maturity scale will decline to 75.108 billion yuan, a weekly decrease of 4.334 billion yuan [2][5] Demand: State - owned Banks and Overseas Institutions are the Main Secondary - market Allocators, and the Primary - market Subscription Rate Continues - In the secondary market, state - owned banks and overseas institutions are the main allocators, with weekly net purchases of 50.919 billion yuan and 36.713 billion yuan respectively. The weekly net purchase of insurance increased from 23.869 billion yuan to 27.908 billion yuan. The primary - market subscription rate (15DMA) of the whole market remained around 90% [2] Valuation: Certificates of Deposit are Priced Higher in the Primary Market, and Secondary - market Yields Rise - In the primary market, the issuance price of 1 - year national and joint - stock certificates of deposit increased to 1.68%. The 1 - month variety increased by 6bp, the 3 - month by 3bp, the 6 - month and 9 - month by 2bp, and the 1 - year by 4bp compared with last week. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks widened by 1bp, at the 24% historical quantile. The 1 - year credit spreads between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks, and rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed. In the secondary market, the yields of AAA - rated certificates of deposit all increased. The 1 - month variety increased by 4bp, the 3 - month and 1 - year by 3bp, and the 6 - month and 9 - month by 2bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated certificates of deposit remained at the 27% historical quantile [2][22][30] Comparison: The Supply - Demand Structure is Unfavorable, and Pricing Repair May be Difficult - The spread between certificates of deposit and funds continued to widen. The spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield and DR007:15DMA widened from 16.48BP to 19.19BP; the spread with R007:15DMA widened from 13.25BP to 17.48BP; the spread with the 1 - year treasury bond yield widened from 27.35BP to 29.43BP, and the quantile increased from 10% to 14%. The spread between certificates of deposit and China Development Bank bonds narrowed from 11.42BP to 9.95BP, and the quantile dropped to around 3%. The spread between AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes and certificates of deposit widened from 4.94BP to 7.30BP, and the quantile increased to 31% [2][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][25]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in operational quality and successful expansion of customized storage clients. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 575 million yuan, up 11.31% year-on-year [2][10]. - The demand for NOR Flash in the consumer sector has significantly increased, and the company is making steady progress in expanding its customized storage business in various fields such as AI mobile phones, AI PCs, and automotive applications [10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported: - Revenue: 4.15 billion yuan (YoY +15%) - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 575 million yuan (YoY +11.31%) - Non-recurring net profit: 544 million yuan (YoY +14.99%) [2][10]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved: - Revenue: 2.24 billion yuan (YoY +13.09%, QoQ +17.4%) - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 341 million yuan (YoY +9.17%, QoQ +45.27%) [2][10]. Future Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve the following financial metrics: - Total revenue (million yuan): 7,356 in 2024, 9,755 in 2025, 12,158 in 2026, and 15,250 in 2027 - Net profit attributable to shareholders (million yuan): 1,103 in 2024, 1,559 in 2025, 2,153 in 2026, and 2,636 in 2027 - Earnings per share (yuan): 1.66 in 2024, 2.35 in 2025, 3.24 in 2026, and 3.97 in 2027 [4][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on increasing its market share and has successfully captured opportunities in various sectors, including automotive, consumer electronics, and computing. The strategy emphasizes customized storage solutions and leveraging the growing demand in AI-related applications [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The company's profitability improvement logic continues to be validated, with multiple business segments showing growth potential. The company is expected to experience rapid revenue growth in the near future [1][7]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 37.549 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 7.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.417 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.65% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 21.245 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 0.83% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 30.3%, with a net profit of 949 million yuan, marking a year-over-year increase of 12.12% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 102.2% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 104.317 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 3.3%. By 2027, the revenue is expected to reach 121 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 9.1% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 3.535 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant year-over-year growth of 32.6%. By 2027, this figure is expected to rise to 5.283 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 23.8% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.76 yuan in 2024 to 1.51 yuan by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3]. Business Segment Analysis - The smart acoustic assembly business experienced a revenue decline of 34.92% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to product iteration cycles. However, the upcoming release of AirPods Pro 3 is expected to boost sales in the second half of the year [7]. - The precision components business reported a revenue of 7.604 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-over-year increase of 20.54%, with a gross margin of 23.49% [7]. - The smart hardware segment achieved a revenue of 20.341 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-over-year increase of 2.49%, driven by the successful progress of high-margin AI glasses products [7]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer in the XR industry, with expectations to benefit from industry growth and increased demand for AI-enabled products [7]. - The global AI smart glasses market is projected to see significant growth, with sales expected to reach 1.52 million units in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 533% [7]. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend through its comprehensive product offerings and technological advancements [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [16]. Core Insights - The company's gaming business remains stable, with a significant increase in net profit driven by growth in investment income and operational cash flow improvements. The net profit for the first half of 2025 reached 377 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 156.26% [1]. - The company is actively expanding its AI initiatives across various sectors, including cloud computing, cultural tourism, media, and healthcare, showcasing a diversified approach to leveraging AI technology [7]. - The exploration of the IP economy through the launch of the "Guzi" trendy toy business is expected to contribute positively to future revenue streams [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.414 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.09%. The operating cash flow turned positive at 251 million yuan, compared to a negative 96 million yuan in the previous year [1]. - Forecasts for total revenue are projected to grow from 3.097 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.286 billion yuan by 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 512 million yuan to 854 million yuan over the same period [3][8]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to increase from 0.40 yuan in 2024 to 0.67 yuan in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [3][8]. Market Position and Valuation - The current market capitalization of the company is approximately 19.883 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio projected to decrease from 39 times in 2024 to 23 times by 2027 [4][3]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 20.25 yuan, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 15.68 yuan [3].

- The short-term volume model indicates a bullish outlook for most broad-based indices[2][12][70] - The low volatility model is neutral in the short term[2][12][70] - The institutional model based on the characteristics of the Dragon and Tiger list is bearish in the short term[2][12][70] - The characteristic volume model is bullish in the short term[2][12][70] - The intelligent algorithm models for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices are bullish in the short term[2][12][70] - The mid-term limit-up and limit-down model is bullish[2][13][71] - The mid-term calendar effect model is neutral[2][13][71] - The long-term momentum model is bullish[2][14][72] - The comprehensive A-share models, including the A-share Comprehensive Weapon V3 model and the A-share Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 model, are bullish[2][15][73] - The mid-term turnover rate inverse volatility model for Hong Kong stocks is bullish[2][16][74]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][7]. Core Views - The company's profit decline has narrowed in Q2 2025, indicating a stabilization and recovery in profitability. The revenue for the first half of 2025 was 3.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 320 million yuan, down 10.5% year-on-year [7]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, which has led to an increase in net profit margin to 11.7% in Q2 2025, marking a recent high [7]. - The company is actively expanding its market boundaries by targeting large clients and projects, and has signed or renewed framework cooperation agreements with over 20 key clients [7]. - The company is accelerating its international expansion, particularly in regions such as the Middle East, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa, in line with the Belt and Road Initiative [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7.67 billion, 8.80 billion, and 10.15 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 795 million, 929 million, and 1.09 billion yuan [3][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.55 yuan in 2025, 1.81 yuan in 2026, and 2.13 yuan in 2027 [3][7]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 14 in 2025 to 10 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the upcoming months [1]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is expected to gradually enter a seasonal peak as new car launches begin in the second half of the year, with price resilience observed against a backdrop of reduced competition [1]. - The market has absorbed much of the anticipated policy effects for next year, leading to significant gains in automotive stocks, suggesting a shift towards focusing on alpha stocks rather than beta stocks [2]. Data Tracking - In July, new energy vehicle deliveries showed significant growth for companies like Xiaopeng, which saw a year-on-year increase of 229.4%, while BYD's deliveries were 344,296 units, up 0.6% year-on-year but down 10% month-on-month [4][14]. - Traditional automakers also reported strong sales, with Geely's sales reaching 238,000 units, a 57.6% increase year-on-year [4][20]. - The average discount rate in early August was 10.1%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous period, with an average discount amount of 22,542 yuan [4]. Industry News - The report highlights several key developments, including the launch of the Mengshi M817, which features advanced driving technologies and a starting price of 319,900 yuan [27]. - A survey by the China Automobile Dealers Association indicated that 52.6% of automotive dealers reported losses in the first half of 2025, with independent new energy vehicle brands performing better than traditional fuel brands [27]. - The report also notes that NIO has invested over 18 billion yuan in charging and battery swap infrastructure over the past decade, with more than 8,100 stations built nationwide [28]. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase of 4.94%, ranking 6th among 29 sectors, with significant gains in both the parts and passenger vehicle segments [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, citing an increase in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is likely to support metal prices [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that Powell's statements may strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts, potentially leading to an upward trend in precious metal prices, particularly gold [4]. - There is an optimistic outlook for aluminum prices due to improving macroeconomic conditions and a decrease in aluminum inventory, indicating a potential recovery in market consumption as the peak season approaches [4]. - The report highlights significant corporate actions, such as China Hongqiao's substantial share buyback, reflecting confidence in future growth [4]. - Focus is placed on the acquisition by Jiaozuo Wanfang of a majority stake in Sanmenxia Aluminum, which is expected to enhance the company's integrated operations [4]. - The report notes that Shenhui Co. has shown a recovery in aluminum profits, driven by rising aluminum prices despite a decline in net profit year-on-year [4]. Industry Data Summary Industrial Metals - The report indicates that the domestic inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, with a reported inventory of 596,000 tons as of August 21, down by 11,000 tons from the previous week [4]. - The report also mentions that the average daily production of electrolytic aluminum in China is projected to remain stable, with a focus on monitoring inventory trends [4]. Precious Metals - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector, such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Zhongjin Gold, as well as silver companies like Xinyi Silver and Hunan Silver [5]. Tungsten and Other Metals - The report notes a significant increase in tungsten exports, with a year-on-year growth of 25.2% in July, indicating a continued upward trend in tungsten prices [6][8]. - The report suggests that companies involved in cobalt and lithium production may benefit from rising prices and demand in the market [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Ping An Bank with a target price of 15.41 CNY, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.65x for 2025 [2][9]. Core Insights - Ping An Bank's non-interest income has shown signs of recovery, and retail loans continue to improve. The bank reported a revenue of 69.385 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to -10.04%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 24.870 billion CNY, down 3.9% year-on-year. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 1 basis point to 1.05%, while the provision coverage ratio increased by 2 percentage points to 238.5% [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Trends**: The revenue decline has slowed, with a 6 percentage point improvement in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter. The net interest income growth rate remained stable, while net fee income increased by 5.7% year-on-year [8][9]. - **Asset Quality**: The asset quality remains stable, with the NPL ratio decreasing to 1.05% and the NPL generation rate down to 1.64% year-to-date. The bank has increased its provision coverage, indicating a proactive approach to managing credit risk [8][9]. - **Loan Growth**: Retail loan issuance has improved, with a reduction in the decline rate to -5.2%. The growth in mortgage loans was a significant contributor, with a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [8][9]. - **Wealth Management**: The wealth management segment has shown improvement, with fee income from wealth management rising by 12.8% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in the capital markets [8][9]. Financial Projections - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2025E at -2.6%, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 1.7% and 5.3% in 2026E and 2027E, respectively. The estimated net profit for 2025E is 43.365 billion CNY [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance of 10%-20% relative to the benchmark index over the next six months [6][21]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders of 450 million yuan, representing an 81.5% year-on-year increase, driven by the continuous recovery in business volume and arbitration compensation [1][6]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 12.07 yuan, with the current price at 9.93 yuan, suggesting a potential upside of 22% [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Total revenue for H1 2025 was 3.726 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 750 million yuan, up 71.3% year-on-year [6][7]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 1.905 billion yuan, a 6.0% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 450 million yuan, an 81.5% increase year-on-year [6][7]. - **Segment Analysis**: - Aviation revenue for H1 2025 was 1.57 billion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year, with passenger throughput reaching 40.03 million, a 9.2% increase year-on-year [6][7]. - Non-aviation revenue was 2.15 billion yuan, up 6.5% year-on-year, with leasing and franchise income contributing significantly [6][7]. - **Cost and Expenses**: - Operating costs for H1 2025 were 2.651 billion yuan, a 5.8% increase year-on-year, while total operating expenses were 256 million yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year [6][7]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 8.182 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.2% [2][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.402 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 51.5% increase year-on-year [2][11]. Market Position and Developments - The company is expanding its operations with the upcoming completion of the T3 terminal and additional runways, which will enhance its capacity to handle 140 million passengers and over 600,000 tons of cargo annually [6][7]. - A significant contract for duty-free operations at the T3 terminal has been signed, expected to contribute positively to future revenues [6][7].