Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the photovoltaic industry [1] Core Views - The ongoing process of reducing internal competition is leading to an overall increase in prices across the main industry chain [1][12] - The price of silicon materials and silicon wafers has significantly increased, with expectations for battery component prices to follow suit [11][12] - There is a growing expectation for supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic sector, which could improve industry supply and demand dynamics [12] Summary by Sections Price Trends in the Photovoltaic Industry - The average transaction price for N-type silicon materials has risen to 41,700 CNY/ton, a 12.4% increase week-on-week, while N-type granular silicon reached 41,000 CNY/ton, up 15.2% [1][11] - Silicon wafer prices are expected to increase, with current prices for N-type G10L at 1.45 CNY/piece, N-type G12R at 1.65 CNY/piece, and N-type G12 at 1.93 CNY/piece [1][11] Export Data - In the first half of 2025, battery component exports are estimated at approximately 177 GW, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with June exports at about 31 GW, up 8% year-on-year but down 7% month-on-month [1][13] - The total export value of battery components for the first half of 2025 is 95.37 billion CNY, a decrease of 24% year-on-year, with June's export value at 15.81 billion CNY, down 23% year-on-year and 9% month-on-month [1][13] - In June, inverter exports reached approximately 34 GW, a 14% increase year-on-year and a 13% increase month-on-month, with total export value for the first half of 2025 at 20.6 billion CNY, up 7% year-on-year [1][26] Market Performance - The overall industry index increased by 2.22%, while the photovoltaic equipment sector saw a decline of 2.01% [51][57] - Notable stock performances include Wenzhou Hongfeng with a 25.62% increase and Tuo Ri Xin Neng with an 18.16% decrease [58][60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry, focusing on new technology directions such as AI equipment and humanoid robots [1]. Core Views - The mechanical industry is expected to enter a new recovery cycle driven by monetary and fiscal policies, with a focus on the "Two New" policies [6]. - The demand for high-performance servers, GPUs, and advanced PCBs is increasing due to the rapid iteration of AI models and smart hardware applications [6]. - The report highlights the growth potential in the third-party testing space within the semiconductor industry, with a projected market size of $21.02 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 6.9% [20]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The mechanical industry consists of 632 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 5,372.56 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 4,423.447 billion yuan [3]. - The industry has shown strong performance, with a 1-month absolute return of 7.2%, a 6-month return of 13.8%, and a 12-month return of 38.2% [4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - Several companies are rated as "Strong Buy," including: - 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology): EPS forecast of 2.12 yuan for 2025, with a PE ratio of 30.78 [2]. - 法兰泰克 (Falan Tech): EPS forecast of 0.60 yuan for 2025, with a PE ratio of 16.11 [2]. - 信捷电气 (Xinjie Electric): EPS forecast of 1.83 yuan for 2025, with a PE ratio of 31.97 [2]. - Other notable companies include: - 欧科亿 (Okai): EPS forecast of 0.71 yuan for 2025, with a PE ratio of 27.59 [2]. - 安徽合力 (Anhui Heli): EPS forecast of 1.63 yuan for 2025, with a PE ratio of 11.77 [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in various sectors, including: - Industrial control: 汇川技术, 信捷电气, 伟创电气 [6]. - Robotics: 柯力传感, 东华测试, 鸣志电器 [6]. - Machine tools: 海天精工, 纽威数控, 科德数控 [6]. - Tools: 鼎泰高科, 中钨高新, 新锐股份 [6]. - Testing: 华测检测, 广电计量, 东华测试 [6]. - Engineering machinery: 三一重工, 恒立液压, 徐工机械 [6]. - Forklifts: 安徽合力, 杭叉集团 [6]. - Laser industry: 锐科激光, 铂力特 [6]. - Logistics equipment: 法兰泰克, 兰剑智能 [6].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Heston Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, serving as a market fear index. It reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility [7] - **Model Construction Process**: The Heston model is a stochastic volatility model where the variance of the asset price follows a mean-reverting square-root process. The model is defined by the following equations: $$ dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sqrt{v_t} S_t dW_t^S $$ $$ dv_t = \kappa (\theta - v_t) dt + \sigma \sqrt{v_t} dW_t^v $$ where: - \( S_t \): Asset price - \( v_t \): Variance of the asset price - \( \mu \): Drift term - \( \kappa \): Speed of mean reversion - \( \theta \): Long-term variance - \( \sigma \): Volatility of variance - \( W_t^S, W_t^v \): Two Wiener processes with correlation \(\rho\) [7] - **Model Evaluation**: The Heston model is widely recognized for its ability to capture the stochastic nature of volatility, making it suitable for modeling market fear indices [7] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Multi-Industry Timing Factor (Scissors Difference) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor is based on the difference in the number of stocks with bullish and bearish signals within an industry. It aims to identify timing opportunities by analyzing the divergence between bullish and bearish signals [14] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Define the number of stocks with bullish signals (\(N_{bullish}\)) and bearish signals (\(N_{bearish}\)) in an industry on a given day - If no bullish or bearish signals are present, set the respective count to 0 - Calculate the scissors difference as: $$ \text{Scissors Difference} = N_{bullish} - N_{bearish} $$ - Normalize the scissors difference to obtain a ratio: $$ \text{Scissors Ratio} = \frac{N_{bullish} - N_{bearish}}{N_{bullish} + N_{bearish}} $$ - Use this ratio to construct an industry timing strategy [14] - **Factor Evaluation**: The backtesting results show that the scissors difference timing model outperforms the respective industry indices in all cases, demonstrating excellent historical performance [14] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Heston Model - Implied volatility for major indices: - **Shanghai 50**: 13.5% (down 0.91% from last week) - **Shanghai 500**: 15.29% (down 0.11% from last week) - **CSI 1000**: 16.79% (down 1.3% from last week) - **CSI 300**: 13.65% (down 0.83% from last week) [9] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Multi-Industry Timing Factor (Scissors Difference) - Backtesting results for selected industries: - **Real Estate**: Strategy annualized return 13.18%, maximum drawdown -34.3%; Index annualized return -1.21%, maximum drawdown -75.09% - **Light Manufacturing**: Strategy annualized return 21.84%, maximum drawdown -37.91%; Index annualized return 2.76%, maximum drawdown -67.79% - **Coal**: Strategy annualized return 28.73%, maximum drawdown -24.76%; Index annualized return -0.1%, maximum drawdown -69.7% - **Pharmaceuticals**: Strategy annualized return 19.22%, maximum drawdown -42.71%; Index annualized return 6.69%, maximum drawdown -55.37% [15][16]

Investment Strategy - Crude oil supply is expected to remain limited due to declining global oil and gas capital expenditures, with a significant reduction of nearly 122% from 2014 levels to $351 billion in 2021 [8][29][30] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have exacerbated concerns over energy supply, with the EU planning to reduce oil imports from Russia by 90% by the end of 2022 [9][30] - The current active drilling rig count in the US remains low, impacting short-term crude oil and natural gas production capacity [29][30] Coal Industry - The market price for thermal coal has increased, with the average price at Qinhuangdao port reaching 637 RMB/ton, up 1.46% from the previous week, driven by increased downstream purchasing demand [11][12] - Coal inventory at major ports has decreased by 6.32% to 25.2 million tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [11][12] - The demand for coal is supported by rising electricity consumption due to high summer temperatures, although cement demand is declining [11][12] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is experiencing price increases, with the price of Shanxi main coking coal rising by 6.67% to 1,440 RMB/ton [13][14] - Downstream steel mills are maintaining high production levels, leading to a positive outlook for coking coal prices as demand remains strong [13][14] - The overall market sentiment is bullish, with expectations of further price increases due to rising costs and stable demand from steel producers [13][14] Natural Gas - Industrial natural gas production in China showed steady growth, with June output at 21.2 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [15][16] - The average price of natural gas in the US has risen to $3.51 per million British thermal units, reflecting a 5% increase from the previous week [15][16] - The EU has reached an agreement on a natural gas price cap, which may lead to liquidity issues and increased competition for supplies [15][16] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is expected to see a recovery in demand due to increased capital expenditures driven by high oil prices and supportive government policies [17][18] - The total capital expenditure for major oil companies in 2023 is projected to reach 581.738 billion RMB, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6% since 2018 [17][18] - The number of active drilling rigs globally has decreased to 1,576, indicating a cautious approach to new investments in oil and gas exploration [18]

Tariff Overview - On July 7, Trump signed an executive order extending the suspension period for reciprocal tariffs until August 1, with new rates set to be between 10%-50%[3] - Brazil has the highest new tariff rate at 50%, followed by Myanmar and Laos at 40%, while the EU's rate is 30% and Japan and South Korea's rates are 25%[3][9] Differences in Tariff Rates - The new tariffs will be cumulative with Section 232 tariffs, unlike the previous rates which were not cumulative[11] - New tariffs will impose penalties for transshipment to evade tariffs, ensuring higher rates are applied regardless of routing[12] Trade Negotiation Progress - Trade agreements have been reached with the UK (10% tariff), Vietnam (20% claimed by Trump, 11% claimed by Vietnam), and Indonesia (19%)[4][13] - India is reportedly very close to a temporary agreement, while the EU is exploring solutions to resolve automotive tariff disputes[14] Economic Indicators - The WEI index for the US is at 2.37, indicating stable economic activity, while Germany's WAI index has dropped to -0.38[21] - US retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, exceeding expectations, while PPI inflation was lower than anticipated at 2.3%[16][18]

Core Insights - The report identifies the "anti-involution" policy as a new round of supply-side reform, which aims to improve the persistently low price performance and may significantly impact asset allocation, shifting from a balanced strategy to a focus on core assets represented by large-cap growth stocks [1][12][47] - The historical context of the supply-side structural reform from 2016 to 2018 is analyzed, highlighting the market's journey from skepticism to optimism, and the importance of understanding the timing of policy implementation and market reactions [1][13] Policy Implementation Timing - The Central Economic Work Conference in November 2015 marked the clear signal for policy action, with specific policy documents for the steel and coal industries being released within three months, leading to rapid local government implementation [1][14][27] - The supply-side reform involved adjustments in the relationship between central and local governments, with local fiscal pressure alleviating as a key factor in the successful implementation of policies [1][15][27] Market Reaction Timeline - Commodity prices began to stabilize at the end of 2015, with significant price increases for rebar and thermal coal starting in mid-2016, indicating a market response to the supply-side reforms [3][10][38] - The stock market showed cautious behavior in the first half of 2016, but began to recover in the second half, particularly in the steel and coal sectors, which saw significant upward trends and excess returns [3][41][42] Key Changes in Supply-Side Reform - The 2016 supply-side reform was characterized by high efficiency, strong determination, and a shift in market expectations, with policies requiring not just the elimination of outdated capacity but also a mandatory reduction of overall capacity [2][8][28] - Accompanying measures, such as financial support and worker placement policies, were implemented to alleviate local government concerns, enhancing the commitment to the reforms [2][29][30] Focus Areas for Current Policies - Current policies are focused on the sustainability of local fiscal pressure relief, the issuance of specific industry policy documents, and the enforcement of local assessment constraints and accompanying measures [2][34] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of local government revenues and the potential impact of land sales on fiscal health, which could provide the necessary support for the "anti-involution" policies [34][35] Conclusion on Market Dynamics - The report concludes that the success of the current "anti-involution" policies hinges on the ability to clear supply, which should lead to price recovery and subsequently improve corporate earnings, creating a positive feedback loop in the market [12][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the second half of the year [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing popularity of new models from emerging automakers, such as the Leidao L90 and Li Auto i8, suggesting a rise in risk appetite for investing in standout products from new players. It anticipates continued strong sales in the terminal market for the second half of the year, alongside a decrease in price war risks due to recent industry destocking and a "de-involution" trend [1][2]. - Concerns regarding potential sales fluctuations due to the expected reduction in electric vehicle purchase tax next year are noted, with a recommendation to actively observe opportunities in the sector after sentiment digestion [1][2]. - The report projects a net profit of 19.2 billion yuan for A-share passenger vehicles in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 31%. For auto parts, a net profit of 21.1 billion yuan is expected, remaining flat year-on-year and increasing by 5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Data Tracking - In June, new energy vehicle deliveries from leading companies showed significant growth, with BYD delivering 383,000 units (up 12% year-on-year), and Leap Motor achieving 48,000 units (up 140% year-on-year). However, Li Auto's deliveries fell by 24% year-on-year to 36,000 units [3][19]. - Traditional automakers also saw notable sales increases, with Geely's sales rising by 42% year-on-year to 236,000 units in June. SAIC Group led the market with 365,000 units sold, a 21.6% increase year-on-year [3][21]. - The average discount rate in the automotive market slightly increased to 9.9% in early July, with an average discount amount of 22,185 yuan, reflecting a rise in both metrics compared to the previous month [3][7]. Industry News - The report notes significant developments in the automotive sector, including the merger of Geely and Zeekr, which is expected to strengthen Geely's market position [28]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to the consumption tax policy for ultra-luxury vehicles, which may impact sales dynamics in the high-end segment [29]. - The report also highlights the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles, with retail sales reaching 332,000 units in early July, a 26% year-on-year increase, while the penetration rate for new energy vehicles reached 58.1% [28]. Market Performance - The automotive sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.22%, ranking third among 29 sectors. The overall market indices also showed positive movements, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69% and the CSI 300 by 1.09% [7][31]. - The report indicates that 208 stocks in the automotive sector rose, while 67 fell, reflecting a generally positive sentiment in the market [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the non-bank financial industry, specifically focusing on Circle and its stablecoin operations [1]. Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, highlighting its compliance, technology, and ecosystem. It contrasts Circle's operational model with that of Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, and discusses Circle's competitive advantages and future prospects [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of July 2025, the non-bank financial sector comprises 71 companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 73,991.69 billion CNY, representing 6.91% of the market [1]. Performance Metrics - The report notes that Circle's USDC has a market share exceeding 20%, while Tether holds over 60% as of Q1 2025. Circle's total revenue and reserve income grew by 16% year-on-year, but net profit declined by 42% due to high operational costs [4][6]. Core Business Model Analysis - Circle's partnership with Coinbase is pivotal for USDC's distribution, with a circulation of 43.9 billion USD and 4.3 million active wallets as of December 2024. The revenue-sharing model between Circle and Coinbase is designed to enhance liquidity and market penetration [9][10]. - BlackRock plays a crucial role in Circle's ecosystem, managing a significant portion of USDC's reserve assets and providing regulatory credibility. This partnership enhances USDC's market trust and stability [11][12][16]. Governance Structure - Circle's governance has evolved through strategic transformations, including a shift from a payment tool to a stablecoin issuer and ecosystem builder. Key milestones include the establishment of the Centre alliance with Coinbase and the successful IPO in June 2025 [22][24][25]. Competitive Landscape - Circle's competitive edge lies in its compliance and transparency compared to Tether. The report emphasizes Circle's focus on regulatory adherence and its robust KYC and AML frameworks, which are critical in the stablecoin market [18][21]. - The report also highlights the potential for operational improvements, particularly in diversifying revenue streams and reducing reliance on a single income source [23][28]. Financial Performance - Circle's financial structure shows a heavy reliance on reserve income, primarily from U.S. Treasury securities. The report indicates that operational costs are a significant burden, with employee compensation constituting a large portion of total expenses [32][37]. Management Team - The report outlines the qualifications and roles of Circle's core management team, emphasizing their experience in technology, finance, and regulatory affairs, which are essential for navigating the complex landscape of digital assets [34][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [6]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a warming sentiment combined with cost support, leading to a strong performance in steel prices. The report notes that the prices for five major steel products have shown weekly increases, with rebar prices reaching 3,316 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.83% increase week-on-week [1][2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce a work plan aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel, which is expected to optimize supply structure and eliminate outdated production capacity [3]. - The report suggests that the steel industry is likely to see a long-term recovery in both valuation and performance, driven by improved profitability and a reduction in production capacity in certain regions [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - As of July 18, 2025, the prices for five major steel products are as follows: rebar at 3,316 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,629 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,345 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,775 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,425 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of +0.83%, +0.76%, +1.47%, +1.16%, and +0.91% respectively [1][15]. - The total production of the five major products reached 8.6819 million tons, a decrease of 45,300 tons week-on-week [1]. - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4244 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 90.89%, up by 0.99 percentage points [1][18]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The report highlights that the production data indicates a slight increase in iron output and a recovery in electric arc furnace operation rates, suggesting a stabilization in the industry despite seasonal demand weakness [2][18]. (b) Consumption Volume of Five Major Steel Products - The total consumption of the five major products was 8.7011 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 29,600 tons week-on-week, with specific changes in consumption for rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium plate [1][39]. (c) Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory stood at 13.3766 million tons, a decrease of 19,200 tons week-on-week, with social inventory increasing by 81,000 tons to 9.2211 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 100,200 tons to 4.1555 million tons [1][51]. (d) Profitability Situation - The average molten iron cost for 114 steel mills was reported at 2,256 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil was +171 CNY/ton, +146 CNY/ton, and +32 CNY/ton respectively, with slight variations noted [1][4]. 3. Stock Market Performance - The steel index closed at 2,294.69 points, with a weekly increase of 0.36%, while the overall A-share index rose by 1.40% [4][6]. - The report indicates that the overall valuation of the steel sector remains low, with specific companies showing potential for recovery in both valuation and profitability [10].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 再议债市的宏观线索：反内卷、城市会议、 关税谈判——债券周报 20250720 债券周报 2025 年 07 月 20 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 电话：010-66500886 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：靳晓航 电话：010-66500819 邮箱：jinxiaohang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080003 证券分析师：许洪波 电话：010-66500905 邮箱：xuhongbo@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090004 证券分析师：宋琦 电话：010-63214665 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 联系人：李阳 邮箱：liyang3@hcyjs.com 联系人：张威 邮箱：zhangwei7@hcyjs.com 相关研究报告 《 【华创固收】旺季兑现，"反内卷"提振价格 预期——每周高频跟踪 20250719》 2025-07-19 《【华创固收】"反内卷"行情持续升温，强赎集 ...