Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic and wind energy sectors, emphasizing the importance of supply chain integration and government policies [1][5][24]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "de-involution" movement, with significant government intervention expected to address low-price competition and excess capacity [5][24]. - The wind energy sector is projected to maintain a robust installation capacity of over 100GW in 2026, despite a slowdown in bidding activity [1][12][24]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies, such as the U.S. "Big Beautiful Act," which alleviates uncertainties for solar and storage exports to the U.S. [1][3][5]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic & Energy Storage - The "de-involution" initiative in the photovoltaic sector has reached a high level, with government meetings signaling strong administrative intervention to address pricing issues and capacity clearing [5][24]. - Supply chain integration is crucial, particularly in the silicon material segment, which is central to the current capacity surplus [5][24]. - The report anticipates a recovery in silicon prices, contingent on the downstream price transmission capabilities and collective self-discipline within the industry [5][24]. Wind Energy - The domestic price of onshore wind turbines has shown a recovery trend in Q2, with expectations for continued strong installation capacity in 2026 [1][12][24]. - The report notes that even with a slowdown in bidding, historical data suggests that installation figures will remain stable due to previously approved projects [12][24]. - The central government has reiterated its commitment to promoting orderly development in offshore wind energy [1][12][24]. Electric Grid - Recent approvals for high-voltage direct current projects indicate significant investment potential, with expected project investments exceeding 500 billion and 170 billion yuan for specific projects [2][14][15]. - The report highlights the anticipated increase in equipment bidding for high-voltage projects, projecting a breakthrough of 500 billion yuan in 2025 [15][17]. Lithium Battery - The report emphasizes the long-term potential of lithium metal anodes, which can achieve higher energy densities compared to traditional materials [2][18][24]. - It suggests a focus on leading companies in various processing routes for lithium metal anodes, as well as solid-state battery technologies [18][24]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The extension of tax credits for hydrogen projects in the U.S. provides a critical window for industry development [3][23]. - The European Union's new framework for clean industrial support is expected to accelerate the deployment of green hydrogen projects [3][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies across various sectors, including photovoltaic glass manufacturers, battery cell producers, and offshore wind cable suppliers, highlighting their potential for recovery and growth [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the PCB upstream new materials, particularly in the fields of electronic cloth and copper foil [2][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights the shift in Nvidia's GB200NVLink design to high-layer, high-frequency low-dielectric PCBs, which is expected to catalyze demand for upstream new materials in AI applications [2][14]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing price increases in the waterproof industry, with major companies like Keshun and Dongfang Yuhong announcing price hikes, reflecting a consensus among industry leaders to combat excessive competition [3][15]. - The report notes the potential for local manufacturing growth in Africa, particularly through companies like Keda Manufacturing, which is integrating into local economies by producing tiles and sanitary ware [4][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Discussion - The report continues to explore the potential of PCB upstream new materials, focusing on electronic cloth and copper foil, with a significant gap in expectations for high-end copper foil materials [2][14]. 2. Industry Price Changes - The report details the recent price adjustments in the waterproof sector, with companies implementing price increases ranging from 2% to 13% across various product categories [3][15]. - It also provides insights into the cement sector, noting a national average price of 349 RMB/t, a year-on-year decrease of 41 RMB, and an average shipment rate of 43.2% [5][17]. 3. Market Performance - The report indicates that the construction materials index increased by 3.91% this week, with notable performances in glass manufacturing and fiberglass sectors [23][27]. - It highlights the average price of float glass at 1201.02 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 0.13% compared to the previous week [5][17]. 4. National Subsidy Tracking - The report discusses the government's initiatives to boost consumption, including the organization of new energy vehicle promotions and the issuance of funds for trade-in programs [6][18]. 5. Important Changes - The report notes significant developments, including the central government's emphasis on regulating low-price competition and the announcement of price adjustments by leading waterproof companies [7][22].

Group 1 - The report highlights a potential recovery in global manufacturing, driven by renewed emphasis on physical demand and infrastructure investment in developed economies, particularly Germany and the United States [3][12][21] - Germany plans to invest €120 billion in infrastructure by 2025, with an additional €800 billion in deficits projected from 2025 to 2029, representing about 20% of its GDP [12][18] - The U.S. "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" increases tax credits for advanced manufacturing investments from 25% to 35% and allows 100% depreciation for fixed assets in the year they are put into use [12][15] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is gaining attention, particularly in industries with high capacity utilization and low product prices, which may see significant profit improvements through capacity restrictions [4][31][33] - The report notes that excess capacity is concentrated in high-end manufacturing sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries, where demand growth is expected to continue, making direct capacity reduction less likely [4][31] - Traditional industries with higher capacity utilization and lower prices may benefit more from the "anti-involution" policies, leading to better profit elasticity [31][33] Group 3 - The report discusses a shift from virtual to real assets, indicating that while liquidity may pose risks, the fundamentals present opportunities for investment [5][37] - Chinese companies have increased capital expenditures despite declining ROIC, suggesting a recovery phase for capital returns, particularly in traditional sectors [5][37] - The report recommends asset allocation towards upstream resource products (copper, aluminum, oil) and capital goods (engineering machinery, heavy trucks) to benefit from rising physical asset demand [5][37]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive sentiment towards the beauty and personal care sector, particularly driven by the upcoming IPOs of two major raw material companies, Weiqi Technology and Jiakai Biological [2][17]. Core Insights - The IPOs of Weiqi Technology and Jiakai Biological are expected to inject new momentum into the beauty raw materials market and enhance competitiveness within the sector [2][17]. - The recent U.S.-Vietnam tariff agreement is seen as beneficial for the export sector, particularly for textile manufacturing companies that have established production capacities in Vietnam [3][18]. - The retail performance in the apparel sector showed improvement in May, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, attributed to favorable weather and promotional events [4][20]. Summary by Sections Section 1: IPOs and Market Dynamics - Weiqi Technology and Jiakai Biological have submitted their IPO applications, with Weiqi holding a 6.6% market share in China's peptide raw materials industry, making it a leader in the sector [2][12][17]. - Jiakai focuses on plant-based and microbial fermentation raw materials, with a strong portfolio of products aimed at various cosmetic functions [11][14]. Section 2: Tariff Implications - The U.S. has agreed to impose a 20% tariff on goods imported from Vietnam, which is lower than previously anticipated, thus reducing the downside risk for companies in the textile sector [3][18]. - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to recover as the tariff situation stabilizes, with many companies already positioned in Vietnam [19]. Section 3: Industry Data Tracking - The apparel retail sector showed a month-on-month improvement in May, with a notable increase in consumer spending driven by seasonal factors and promotional activities [4][20]. - Raw material prices remained stable, with cotton prices showing slight fluctuations, indicating a relatively stable supply chain environment [21][22]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in apparel brands like Hailan Home, which is adapting to consumer trends and has strong profitability potential [39]. - In the beauty sector, companies like Juzhi Biological and Jinbo Biological are highlighted for their resilience and upcoming product launches [5][39]. - The gold and jewelry sector remains attractive due to rising gold prices, with strong recommendations for brands like Laopu Gold [5][39]. Section 5: Market Performance Review - The textile and apparel sector saw a weekly increase of 1.36%, ranking 11th among 29 industry sectors, indicating a positive market sentiment [6][40]. - Key performers in the textile sector included Jihua International and Jiangnan Buyi, while the beauty sector faced mixed results with some companies experiencing declines [6][45]. Section 6: Industry News and Trends - The report notes significant growth in the beauty category on platforms like Douyin, with a total GMV exceeding 20 billion yuan in June, showcasing the strength of domestic brands [48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.8-4.6 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 80.94%-119.04% [2]. - The company’s retail business continues to grow against the backdrop of a declining real estate market, with revenue growth rates for home decoration wall paint projected at 18.2%, 2.6%, and 12.8% from 2022 to 2024 [3]. - Gross margin is recovering, with a gross margin of 32.5% in Q4 2024, up 0.44 percentage points year-on-year, and 31.05% in Q1 2025, up 2.67 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 9.0 billion RMB and 12.5 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 31.0 and 22.3 [5]. Performance Summary - The company reported a historical high in total profit for the first half of 2025, with a net profit forecast midpoint of 4.2 billion RMB [2]. - The company has effectively reduced expenses through improved operational efficiency, with a 2024 expense ratio of 25.7%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The revenue forecast for the company shows a slight decline in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 8.00% and 12.49% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [10]. Financial Projections - The projected diluted earnings per share for 2025 is 1.221 RMB, with a significant increase in net profit growth rate expected at 171.32% [10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise to 27.92% in 2025 and stabilize around 30.91% by 2027 [10]. Market Sentiment - The report indicates a favorable competitive landscape in the incremental market segments, with sustained demand despite the overall industry challenges [3]. - The company’s strategic focus on consumer-oriented growth and product structure optimization is expected to drive profitability and market share [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong confidence in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs, predicting a reversal trend in 2025 [4] Core Viewpoints - The innovative drug sector is experiencing strong performance driven by multiple factors, including the completion of quarterly portfolio adjustments, increased policy support from the National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) and the National Health Commission, and significant collaborations in the industry [1][11] - The NHSA and the National Health Commission have jointly released measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, which will accelerate the commercialization of domestic innovative products and create a positive cycle of profitability and strong R&D investment [20][21] - The report highlights the potential of dual/multi-target antibodies in cancer treatment and innovative drugs addressing unmet clinical needs in chronic diseases as key investment opportunities [1][4] Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug sector remains the main investment line, with a focus on dual/multi-target antibodies for various cancers and chronic diseases [1][11] - AstraZeneca is in talks for a collaboration worth up to $15 billion for the AK112 drug, which has catalyzed strong performance in related stocks [1] Pharmaceutical Sector - The NHSA's new measures will direct more healthcare resources towards innovative drugs, enhancing their commercialization and profitability [20][21] - The report notes that since 2018, 149 innovative drugs have been included in the healthcare insurance directory, significantly increasing the proportion of new drugs covered [22] Biologics - Changchun High-tech's new drug, Vuxin Qibai monoclonal antibody, has been approved for treating acute gout arthritis, marking a significant advancement in biologics [29][34] - The drug shows rapid onset of action and a substantial reduction in recurrence risk, highlighting its clinical significance [33][34] Traditional Chinese Medicine - Lingrui Pharmaceutical's new indication for its nasal spray is expected to boost sales, with ongoing efforts to expand hospital coverage and OTC sales [38][41] Medical Devices - The report emphasizes policy support for high-end medical devices, predicting accelerated commercialization in various segments such as medical robots and AI [3][4] Medical Services - Recent policies to enhance maternity benefits are expected to stimulate demand in related services [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home appliance industry, indicating a strong growth potential driven by domestic demand and favorable policies [7][47]. Core Insights - The 618 home appliance market in 2025 showed robust growth, with major categories experiencing increases in both retail volume and value, particularly in white goods and black goods [2][13]. - The recent US-Vietnam trade agreement is expected to boost sentiment in the Chinese home appliance export chain, providing greater policy certainty for regional export chains [3][21]. - The home appliance sector is transitioning from price-driven competition to a focus on user experience and product value, with significant upgrades in product structures [20][45]. Market Performance Tracking - The overall market is showing a recovery trend, with white goods maintaining stable prices and black goods experiencing significant growth, particularly in the TV market, which saw a 9.7% increase in volume and a 14.5% increase in value during the 618 period [2][13]. - The air conditioning segment demonstrated strong growth, with retail sales increasing over 15% both online and offline, driven by leading brands like Midea, Xiaomi, and Haier [15][20]. - The washing machine market also saw substantial growth, with online and offline retail sales increasing by 17.1% and 12.1% respectively, indicating a shift towards larger capacity and upgraded features [15][20]. Raw Material Price Tracking - Recent trends show a decrease in copper and aluminum prices, with copper down 0.69% and aluminum down 0.23% in the last week, while cold-rolled steel prices increased by 2.58% [29][34]. Exchange Rate and Shipping Price Tracking - As of July 4, 2025, the USD to RMB exchange rate was reported at 7.15, with a slight decrease of 0.01% week-on-week [35][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1) Opportunities in new product forms and industry phases 2) Quality companies with solid fundamentals focusing on robotics 3) Leading companies in the black and white goods sectors [7][47].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the machinery sector, particularly highlighting specific companies for investment opportunities [13]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector shows short-term fluctuations in operating rates but maintains a long-term recovery logic driven by domestic demand [7][25]. - The new shipbuilding prices have stabilized and are showing signs of recovery, indicating an upward trend in industry sentiment [7][46]. - The gas turbine sector is experiencing robust growth, with significant increases in orders and production expected [7][55]. Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index increased by 0.26% over the past week, ranking 24th among 31 primary industry categories [3][16]. - Year-to-date, the SW Machinery Equipment Index has risen by 8.29%, ranking 7th among the same categories [3][18]. Key Data Tracking General Machinery - The general machinery sector continues to face pressure, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, indicating contraction [24]. Engineering Machinery - The operating rate for major engineering machinery products was 56.9% in June, down 7.55% year-on-year [7][25]. - The average working hours for these products were 77.2 hours, reflecting a decline of 9.11% year-on-year [7][25]. Shipbuilding - The global new ship price index reached 187.11 in June, marking a 0.22% increase, the first rise since February [7][46]. Oilfield Equipment - The global rig count has stabilized at over 1,600 units, indicating a bottoming out of demand in the oilfield equipment sector [48]. Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is on a steady upward trajectory, with GEV's new orders increasing by 44.9% in Q1 2025 [55][56]. Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery trends in various segments, including engineering machinery, shipbuilding, and gas turbines, as they present potential investment opportunities [7][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, suggesting a bottoming opportunity for investment in high-end liquor brands and potential cyclical recovery in beer and yellow wine sectors [2][11][12]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on sales due to external risks and a need for demand improvement, with expectations for the price of original box Feitian Moutai to stabilize around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The beer industry is showing signs of stabilization with a recovery in dining demand and potential for high-frequency sales tracking, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming peak season [3][12]. - The yellow wine sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and market promotion efforts by leading brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3][13]. - The snack food industry remains robust, driven by channel expansion and new product penetration, with expectations for continued high growth in Q2 [3][12]. - The soft drink sector is seeing demand improvement driven by health-oriented and functional beverages, with a positive outlook for brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [4][14]. - The seasoning industry is stabilizing at a low point, with growth relying on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant sector [5][15]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Feitian Moutai's original box price is stable between 1900-1950 RMB, with expectations for a price stabilization around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The industry is under pressure, but the market's expectations for short-term performance have been adequately priced in, suggesting a potential for recovery [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is expected to stabilize with a recovery in dining demand and increased focus on non-drinking channels [3][12]. - The industry is positioned for a favorable performance in the upcoming peak season, with anticipated steady mid-year earnings [3][12]. Yellow Wine Industry - The trend towards premiumization is becoming a consensus among leading brands, with increased marketing efforts and a focus on younger consumers [3][13]. Snack Food Industry - The snack food sector is maintaining high growth due to channel expansion and new product introductions, with Q2 performance expected to continue the positive trend [3][12]. Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink market is improving, driven by health and functional beverages, with brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring expected to perform well [4][14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing, with growth dependent on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant industry [5][15].

科创债 ETF 及获批机构划重点 首批科创债 ETF 登场。7 月 2 日，华夏基金、南方基金、易方达基金、博时基金、广发基金、招商基金、鹏华基金、 嘉实基金、富国基金和景顺长城基金上报的首批科创债 ETF 获得证监会批文。7 月 3 日，10 只科创债 ETF 的招募说明 书、基金合同、发售公告全部于其基金公司官网披露完毕，并宣布将于 7 月 7 日进行发售。首批申报科创债 ETF 的基 金公司包括华夏基金、易方达基金、南方基金、嘉实基金、广发基金、富国基金、博时基金、鹏华基金、景顺长城基 金、招商基金等 10 家机构，主要可分为三类，一是早期布局 ETF 基金的华夏基金、易方达基金等，其 ETF 基金规模 均在 6000 亿元以上；二是需要填补债券型 ETF 发展空白的机构，如嘉实基金、景顺长城基金目前还未发行债券型 ETF 产品；三是进一步丰富 ETF 产品类型的机构，如博时基金、富国基金、广发基金等，在旗下 ETF 基金规模较大的前提 下，积极参与新类型产品的开发。 科创债 ETF 跟踪指数特征简析 首批上报的 10 只科创债 ETF，主要跟踪中证 AAA 科创债、沪 AAA 科创债、深 AAA 科创 ...