[Table_MainInfo] 总量研究 证券研究报告 总量专题报告 2025 年 03 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《打造资本市场高质量发展新局面—— 海通总量前瞻 25 年"两会"系列 5》 2025.03.02 《我国生育率低的现状、危害和政策建议 ——海通总量前瞻 25 年"两会"系列 4》 2025.02.28 《消费政策：或加码扩围——海通总量前 瞻 25 年"两会"系列 3》2025.02.28 首席经济学家 [Table_AuthorInfo] :荀玉根 Tel:(021)23185715 Email:xyg6052@haitong.com 证书:S0850511040006 分析师:吴信坤 Tel:021-23154147 Email:wxk12750@haitong.com 证书:S0850521070001 分析师:陈菲 Tel:(021)23187260 Email:cf15315@haitong.com 证书:S0850525030003 重估中国资产的现实基础：类比 20 年前 [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) year-on-year growth rate decreased to 5.3% in February, down 0.1 percentage points from January[12] - The core PCE price index year-on-year growth rate increased to 2.8% in February, up 0.1 percentage points from January[12] - The US Markit manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in March, below the market expectation of 51.8[21] Group 2: Market Trends - Major stock markets experienced declines, with the Nikkei 225 and S&P 500 both down 1.5% and the Hang Seng Index down 1.1%[3] - Commodity prices mostly rose, with London gold up 2.0% and IPE Brent crude futures up 1.8%[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.27%[3] Group 3: Inflation Expectations - As of March 28, the 5-year inflation expectation in the US rose to 2.58%, an increase of 7 basis points from the previous week[23] - The market anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with the second cut now expected in July[23] Group 4: Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates for a longer period due to rising inflation expectations[34] - The European Central Bank's rate cut pace remains uncertain, with officials indicating caution regarding future decisions[35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company is recognized as a leading player in the concentrated apple juice market, with a history of improving profitability [7] - Significant revenue growth is noted, with a year-on-year increase of 61.85% in 2024, driven by higher sales volumes of concentrated juice [7] - The company is expanding its production capacity and actively seeking market share through strategic investments and acquisitions [8] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 876 million in 2023, 1418 million in 2024, 1482 million in 2025, 1550 million in 2026, and 1550 million in 2027, with a notable 61.9% year-on-year growth in 2024 [6][9] - Net profit is expected to grow from 256 million in 2023 to 283 million in 2027, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0% in 2024 [6][9] - The company’s EPS is projected to rise from 0.75 in 2023 to 0.83 in 2027 [6][9] Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance improvement, with absolute growth rates of 13.3%, 23.5%, and 28.9% over the last three months [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.006 billion from exports in 2024, reflecting an 84.09% year-on-year increase, while domestic sales reached 406 million, up 26.01% [7] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing management efficiency and expanding its product line to include various juice products, thereby increasing customer loyalty and market presence [8] - The company is also addressing challenges such as rising international shipping costs and tariffs by optimizing internal management and production processes [7][8]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The bond market in March was volatile with interest rates rising first and then falling, and the focus of the game was on the central bank's attitude. In April, the 10-year bond interest rate may mainly operate in the range of 1.80%-1.90%, with a greater possibility of breaking downward but limited in amplitude. It is recommended to control the liquidity risk of the portfolio and avoid excessive chasing up. When the interest rate approaches 1.75% downward, gradually take profits [4][5]. - In March, credit bonds performed better than interest rate bonds, with yields rising first and then falling. In the last two weeks, credit bonds strongly recovered, with short-term bonds showing obvious upward trends. The subsequent credit spreads still have some room to narrow, and it is advisable to seize the phased market and observe the repair rhythm of credit bonds [6][18]. - The adjustment range of the convertible bond market this time may not be too deep, and it is expected to be smaller than the adjustment in December last year. Investors should look for opportunities during the adjustment and give priority to strategies such as high-price and high-volatility strategies to prepare for the convertible bond bull market throughout the year [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Review and Outlook - **March Bond Market Review**: The bond market was highly volatile, with interest rates rising first and then falling. The focus of the game was on the central bank's attitude. Multiple factors such as the central bank's statements, operations, and various policies affected the market trend [12]. - **April Bond Market Outlook**: For interest rate bonds, the current long - short divergence in the bond market is intense. The 10-year bond interest rate may mainly operate in the range of 1.80% - 1.90%, with a greater possibility of breaking downward but limited in amplitude. For credit bonds, they performed better than interest rate bonds in March, and the subsequent credit spreads still have room to narrow. For convertible bonds, the adjustment is expected to be limited, and opportunities should be sought during the adjustment [5][16][18]. 2. Fundamentals and Policies - **Fundamentals**: Since March, medium - term and high - frequency data have shown that the monthly average of the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities has increased compared with the previous month but decreased slightly year - on - year; the export CCFI and SCFI composite indices have continued to decline significantly year - on - year and month - on - month; steel production has increased year - on - year, and the daily coal consumption of eight coastal provinces has decreased year - on - year. Industry operating rates are differentiated, and automobile sales have increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. In addition, high - frequency infrastructure data has improved month - on - month [23]. - **Policies**: The central bank has repeatedly stated that it will "select the right time to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates" and guided the market to correctly understand its meaning through various statements. The central bank adjusted the winning bid method of MLF, and the policy attribute of MLF interest rate has withdrawn [28]. 3. Interest Rate Bonds - **Money Market**: In March, the central bank's open - market operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 5259 billion yuan. The money market interest rate decreased, while the bill interest rate increased. Compared with February, the monthly average of R001 and R007 decreased by 16BP and 14BP respectively, and the monthly average of DR001 and DR007 decreased by 10BP and 15BP respectively. The monthly average of the six - month and 3 - month national stock bill transfer discount prices increased by 9BP and 16BP respectively compared with February [32]. - **Primary Issuance**: In March, the net supply of interest rate bonds decreased, and certificates of deposit increased in both volume and price. The net financing of interest rate bonds was 1553.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 409.1 billion yuan compared with the previous month. The issuance of certificates of deposit was 4043.6 billion yuan, an increase of 1283 billion yuan compared with the previous month [38][45]. - **Secondary Market in March**: The bond market was highly volatile, and the yield curve continued to shift upward. Compared with February 28, on March 28, the yields of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 7BP, 10BP, and 12BP respectively; the yields of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 20 - year CDB bonds changed by - 3BP, + 12BP, and + 11BP respectively [44][46]. 4. Credit Bonds - **Primary Issuance**: In March, the net financing of major credit bond varieties turned into net repayment. The total issuance was 1145.86 billion yuan, with a maturity of 1221.18 billion yuan, resulting in a net repayment of 75.31 billion yuan. The number of issuances increased compared with the previous month. AAA - rated issuers accounted for the largest proportion, and construction industry issuers accounted for the largest proportion in terms of industry [51]. - **Secondary Trading**: In March, the trading volume of major credit bond varieties increased, with yields decreasing and spreads differentiating. The total trading volume was 3564.9 billion yuan, an increase of 1212.542 billion yuan compared with February. The yields of medium - term notes at all levels decreased [54]. - **Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Tracking**: In March, there were 2 issuers with rating upgrades and 1 issuer with a rating downgrade; 3 new bonds were extended, and there were no new default entities [8]. 5. Convertible Bonds - The adjustment of the convertible bond market is expected to be limited. The current convertible bond market is in a bull market, and the adjustment may bring opportunities. The improvement of fundamentals since the beginning of the year continues, and investors should look for opportunities during the adjustment and give priority to high - price and high - volatility strategies [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][15] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading provider of new power system solutions in China, focusing on smart power generation, new energy, smart grid, and energy storage [9][10] - The acceleration of new power system construction and frequent industrial policies are expected to drive the company's continuous business growth [6][10] - The company maintains a high level of R&D investment to ensure its core competitiveness and has introduced new technologies and products to meet emerging demands [10][11] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 5,751 million yuan in 2023 to 9,917 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.6% [7][13] - Net profit is expected to increase from 627 million yuan in 2023 to 994 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 16.7% [7][15] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.75 yuan in 2023 to 1.19 yuan in 2026 [7][15] Business Segments - **Grid Automation**: Revenue growth is expected to be 12% in 2024, 13% in 2025, and 13% in 2026, with a gross margin of around 40% [11] - **Power Plant and Industrial Automation**: Anticipated revenue growth of 25% in 2024 and 2025, and 24% in 2026, with a gross margin of approximately 26% [12] - **Total Revenue**: The overall revenue growth is projected at 20.44% in 2024, 19.72% in 2025, and 19.60% in 2026, with a gross margin of about 32% [13][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.7 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.27%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.074 billion yuan, up 14.85% year-on-year, with a diluted EPS of 0.56 yuan [6][10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.81 billion yuan, with a cash dividend ratio of 58.87% [6]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its business ecosystem, with significant growth in new business segments such as Chinagoods and Yiwu Pay, which saw revenues of 341 million yuan and over 4 billion USD in cross-border payments, respectively [9][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 31.39%, an increase of 4.89 percentage points year-on-year. The main business gross profit margin rose by 5.52 percentage points to 30.87% [7]. - The operating cash flow net amount reached 4.491 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 143.43% [6]. - The company’s net profit from core operations, excluding investment income, was 2.85 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 87% [8]. Market and Business Development - The company’s market operations showed robust growth, with daily customer traffic increasing by 12.15% to 220,000 visitors and foreign visitor traffic rising by 17.22% [8]. - The Chinagoods platform is recognized as a representative case of new economic transformation, with over 19,000 merchants using self-developed AI products [9]. - The company is expanding its international presence with 23 new overseas projects in 2024 and plans for more in 2025 [11]. Future Outlook and Valuation - The company is expected to see continued growth, with projected net profits of 4.017 billion yuan, 5.547 billion yuan, and 6.347 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [12]. - The report suggests a reasonable market capitalization range of 107.3 billion to 129.1 billion yuan, with a target share price between 19.56 and 23.54 yuan [12].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the macroeconomic data for Q1 shows stable economic performance, with structural highlights in consumption, automotive, and resource products [4][10][11] - Industrial enterprise profits show a narrowing decline in growth rates, with notable performance in the automotive, shipbuilding, and non-ferrous sectors [4][17][18] - Analysts' earnings expectations have been revised upward for non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and certain technology and manufacturing sectors, reflecting a stable outlook for the overall A-share market [4][22][23] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the upcoming earnings season in April is crucial for validating the market's focus on fundamentals, as historical trends show that A-share performance is significantly influenced by fundamental improvements [7][9] - The automotive industry continues to exhibit high levels of activity, with the semi-steel tire operating rate reaching 83.0%, the highest in recent years [11][16] - The report highlights that consumer sectors, particularly those benefiting from policy subsidies, are showing positive trends, with service retail sales growing by 4.9% year-on-year [11][12] Group 3 - The report notes that the spring market is entering a phase of increased volatility, with a potential decrease in upward momentum due to a shift back to fundamental analysis [27][28] - The technology sector is identified as a mid-term focus, driven by advancements in AI and increased capital expenditure from leading tech companies [36][37] - The report suggests that dividend-paying assets may become more attractive in the current market environment, as their yields are favorable compared to government bond rates [34][39]

Domestic Macro Policies - The State Council announced the implementation of the "Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law" on March 24, 2025, which includes 22 articles detailing property and rights measures[6] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will reform the MLF operation starting this month, adopting a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multi-price bidding method[15] - The State Council issued guidelines for establishing a long-term regulatory mechanism for enterprise-related fees, focusing on a directory system[6] Domestic Industry Policies - The 2025 National Home Appliance Consumption Season was launched on March 22, aiming to stimulate the potential for home appliance upgrades[15] - The National Energy Administration decided to conduct special regulatory work for fair access to the power grid, enhancing the new power system construction[15] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and ten other departments issued the "High-Quality Development Implementation Plan for the Aluminum Industry (2025-2027)," targeting a 3%-5% increase in domestic bauxite resources by 2027[16] Local Policies - Guangdong Province issued measures to promote high-quality tourism development on March 24, 2025, aiming to enhance the tourism sector[18] - Shanghai aims for its intelligent computing cloud industry to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2027, as stated in the implementation opinions released on March 26[18] - Anhui Province's housing authority released policies to promote economic recovery, including adjustments to housing provident fund loan policies[18] Overseas Dynamics - Germany's federal parliament approved over 11 billion euros for military aid to Ukraine, with a total of approximately 70 billion euros in military funding for 2025[19] - On March 26, U.S. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars, effective April 2, 2025[20] - Canada announced a strategic response fund of 2 billion Canadian dollars to protect jobs in the automotive sector affected by U.S. tariffs[20]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of various quantitative stock portfolios, indicating a challenging week for aggressive and balanced portfolios with weekly returns of -5.91% and -6.29% respectively, while major indices showed mixed results [9][10] - The report emphasizes the relative performance of the aggressive and balanced portfolios against the CSI 500 index, with excess returns of -4.97% and -5.35% respectively during the week [9][10] - Year-to-date, the aggressive and balanced portfolios have shown cumulative returns of 18.61% and 7.68%, significantly outperforming the major indices [10] Group 2: Multi-Factor Portfolio Performance - The report details the performance of enhanced index portfolios, noting that the CSI 300 enhanced portfolio had a weekly return of -0.62%, underperforming the index by -0.63% [12][13] - The CSI 1000 enhanced portfolio, however, achieved a positive excess return of 0.70% despite a weekly return of -1.44% [12] - Cumulatively, the CSI 1000 enhanced portfolio has outperformed its index year-to-date with a return of 8.34% compared to the index's 5.21% [13] Group 3: Fund Holdings Performance - The report indicates that the unique holdings of high-performing funds yielded a weekly return of 0.31%, outperforming the total stock fund index by 1.94% [17] - Year-to-date, this fund's cumulative return stands at 8.22%, exceeding the total stock fund index's return of 4.49% [17] Group 4: Profitability, Growth, and Cash Flow Portfolio - The profitability, growth, and cash flow portfolio achieved a weekly return of 1.31%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.29% [19] - Cumulatively, this portfolio has returned 8.72% since the beginning of March, compared to the CSI 300 index's 0.65% [19] Group 5: Low Valuation Portfolio with Fundamental Support - The PB-profitability preferred portfolio reported a weekly return of -0.21%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by -0.22% [20] - However, this portfolio has shown a cumulative return of 5.21% since the beginning of March, outperforming the index [20] Group 6: Small Cap Value and Growth Portfolios - The small-cap value preferred portfolios had weekly returns of -2.81% and -4.17%, with the first portfolio outperforming the micro-cap index by 1.64% [25][26] - The small-cap growth portfolio achieved a weekly return of -2.83%, outperforming the micro-cap index by 1.62% [28] Group 7: Single Factor Performance - The report notes that large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap stocks, and low valuation stocks outperformed high valuation stocks in the style factor category [31] - In the technical factor category, reversal, turnover, and volatility factors contributed positively to returns [35] - The fundamental factor category showed positive contributions from ROE, SUE, and expected net profit adjustment factors [38]

[Table_MainInfo] 基金研究 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 专题报告 2025 年 3 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《"基"微成著系列（六）：基于财务报表 的债券基金业绩归因模型》2023.11.24 《"基"微成著系列（四）：主动固收基金 分 析 框 架 概 述 之 含 权 类 债 基 篇 》 2023.09.04 《"基"微成著系列（三）：主动固收基金 分析框架概述之纯债基金篇》2023.08.21 "基"微成著系列（八）：债券基金久期 测算方法研究 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 首席分析师:倪韵婷 Tel:(021)23185605 Email:niyt@haitong.com 证书:S0850511010017 分析师:章画意 Tel:(021)23185670 Email:zhy13958@haitong.com 证书:S0850523070003 [Table_AuthorInfo] ⚫ 债券基金久期测算方法介绍。常见的债券基金久期测算方法有重仓券法、利 率敏感度法及净值回归法等。重仓 ...