[Table_MainInfo] 金融工程研究 证券研究报告 金融工程周报 2025 年 02 月 17 日 [Table_Title] 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《下周 A 股的上行趋势不会改变——量 化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20250216）》 2025.02.16 《本周高频因子表现继续分化，AI 增强组 合依然回撤——高频选股因子周报 风格 50 组合均跑赢均衡组合——风格 Smart beta 组 合跟踪周报（2025.02.10-2025.02.14） [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 风险提示：市场环境变动风险，有效因子变动风险。 分析师:郑雅斌 Tel:(021)23219395 Email:zhengyb@haitong.com 证书:S0850511040004 联系人:卓洢萱 Tel:(021)23183938 Email:zyx15314@haitong.com 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 （20250210-20250214）》2025.02.15 《小盘成长组合累计收益 17%，三大指增 组合均获正超额——量化选股周报 （2025.02. ...

上周资金净流入105亿元 ——立体投资策略周报 2025年2月17日 证券研究报告 吴信坤 （策略首席分析师） 证书：S0850521070001 Tel：(021) 23154147 E-mail：wxk12750@haitong.com 余培仪（策略资深分析师） 证书：S0850523040002 Tel：021-23185663 E-mail：ypy13768@haitong.com 陆嘉瑞（联系人） Tel：021-23185659 E-mail： ljr16250@haitong.com 每周资金入市合计 上周资金净流入105亿元，而前一周净流出16亿元。 资料来源：Wind，海通证券研究所测算 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 资料来源：Wind，海通证券研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2500 2700 2900 3100 3300 3500 3700 3900 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 19/06 19/08 19/10 19/12 20/02 20/04 20/06 20/08 20/10 20/12 21/02 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 金融工程研究 证券研究报告 金融工程周报 2025 年 02 月 17 日 [Table_Title] 相关研究 《大类资产及择时观点月报（2025.02）》 2025.02.10 本周高频因子表现继续分化，AI 增强组合 依然回撤 — — 高 频 选 股 因 子 周 报 （20250210-20250214） [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_AuthorInfo] [Table_ReportInfo] 《上周 514 只固收+产品业绩创历史新高 ——绝对收益产品及策略周报 （20250205-20250207）》2025.02.12 《2024 年绩优指数增强超额收益来源解 析》2025.02.11 分析师:郑雅斌 Tel:(021)23219395 Email:zhengyb@haitong.com 证书:S0850511040004 分析师:余浩淼 Tel:(021)23185650 Email:yhm9591@haitong.com 证书:S0850516050004 深度学习因子（多颗粒度模型-5 日 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the convertible bond market and the stock market, with a focus on investment sentiment and market dynamics. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment and Trading Volume** The overall investment sentiment in the market has declined significantly, particularly in the stock market, where trading volumes have dropped from over 700 billion in December to around 400 billion. This indicates a rapid decrease in market activity [1] 2. **Performance of Convertible Bonds vs. Stocks** Despite the decline in the stock market, convertible bonds have shown relative strength, with a decrease of only 1% to 2%. This has resulted in a widening spread between convertible bonds and stocks, suggesting that convertible bonds are currently outperforming stocks [2][3] 3. **Historical Context of Convertible Bonds** The current relative strength of convertible bonds is at an extreme historical position, similar to previous market conditions in February 2019 and early 2024, where significant rebounds followed after similar patterns [3][4] 4. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** There is a recommendation to actively monitor convertible bonds for potential opportunities, especially around the Chinese New Year. If possible, investing in stocks is preferred due to their larger financial impact. If stocks are not feasible, convertible bonds should be considered for monthly opportunities [5] 5. **Market Dynamics and Policy Impact** The central bank's recent stance on liquidity and interest rates has led to adjustments in market expectations. The central bank's actions, including issuing offshore central bank bills, have influenced market sentiment and expectations regarding future interest rate cuts [6][7] 6. **Institutional Behavior and Market Support** The behavior of institutional investors, particularly funds, is crucial in the current market. Despite recent adjustments, there is still support for the bond market, with expectations that funds will not maintain a net selling position for long [8] 7. **Credit Bond Market Outlook** The credit bond market is experiencing a short-term rebound, but overall yields are slightly rising. The demand from institutional investors remains strong, and there is potential for credit spreads to narrow in the future [9][10] 8. **Focus on Specific Credit Instruments** Attention is drawn to specific credit instruments, such as three-year bonds with yields around 2.15% to 2.3%, and the potential for further tightening in the supply of certain bonds due to policy-driven debt replacement initiatives [11][12] 9. **Monitoring Policy Effects and Industry Recovery** Continuous monitoring of policy effects and the stability of industry fundamentals is recommended. There is a focus on healthy debt levels in state-owned enterprises and the potential for investment in long-term bonds from stable institutions [13] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion highlights the importance of understanding the macroeconomic environment and the impact of government policies on market dynamics, particularly in the context of liquidity and interest rates. - The potential risks associated with the current market conditions, including the possibility of further declines in stock prices, are acknowledged, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the bond market, particularly focusing on government bonds, credit bonds, and convertible bonds in the context of the current economic environment. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Trends**: Many regions are experiencing a prolonged period of low interest rates, with ten-year government bond yields nearing 2%, which could lead to a stagnant or declining trend in yields, negatively impacting fixed-income investors [1][2][7] 2. **Investment Strategies in Low Yield Environment**: Investors are exploring various strategies to cope with low yields, including diversifying into equities and overseas assets to enhance returns through carry trades [2][3] 3. **Challenges with Equity Investments**: The volatility of equity assets poses challenges for investors, making it difficult to shift large portions of their portfolios into equities without facing significant risks [3][5] 4. **Policy and Economic Outlook**: Upcoming political and economic meetings are expected to clarify macroeconomic policies, with investors maintaining a neutral stance on policy expectations [6] 5. **Credit Bond Market Dynamics**: The demand for credit bonds remains strong, with a notable performance in the credit bond market observed in December. The asset scarcity in credit bonds is likely to continue, leading to a decline in yields [8][9] 6. **Investment Opportunities in Credit Bonds**: Focus on short to medium-term credit bonds with a yield above 2.4% is recommended, particularly in regions with favorable debt allocation [9] 7. **Sector-Specific Recovery**: Attention is drawn to recovery opportunities in sectors such as construction, transportation, and public utilities, with a focus on high-quality issuers [10] 8. **Convertible Bonds Market**: The convertible bond market is influenced by low interest rates and mixed expectations for the equity market, with a potential increase in demand for convertible bonds as investors seek yield [11][12] 9. **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The supply of convertible bonds may decrease, but demand remains driven by market conditions and investor sentiment [13][14] 10. **Shortening Maturity Periods**: The average maturity of convertible bonds is decreasing, which may impact the market dynamics and investor strategies [14][15] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion highlights the importance of monitoring the allocation of special bonds aimed at replacing hidden debts, as this could significantly affect local government financing and overall market conditions [6] - The potential risks associated with early redemption of high-yield bonds are noted, emphasizing the need for careful assessment of existing bond portfolios [9] - The impact of the dual-D strategy on investment choices is discussed, suggesting that investors may need to adjust their selection criteria due to the shrinking pool of viable options [15]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **credit bond market** and **local government financing** in China, with a focus on the dynamics of local government debt issuance and its implications for the broader financial market. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment on Local Debt Issuance** The market's concerns regarding local government debt issuance have diminished, leading to a significant decline in interest rates, indicating that the market has absorbed the supply shock from local debt issuance [1][2][3] 2. **Economic Indicators and Policy Uncertainty** There is a lack of significant economic indicators that could trigger market fluctuations in the short term. The uncertainty surrounding next year's policies, particularly due to upcoming meetings in December, adds to the market's cautious outlook [2][3][4] 3. **Supply Chain Disruptions** Potential supply shocks are anticipated, especially with the issuance of special bonds. The approval process for projects may slow down, leading to uncertainty in the actual issuance of bonds despite the allocated quotas [4][5][6] 4. **Credit Bond Market Performance** In November, the credit bond market showed a recovery, driven by the overall debt resolution logic. Short-term bonds outperformed mid to long-term bonds, with a notable compression in credit spreads [7][8] 5. **Investor Strategies in Credit Bonds** Investors are advised to focus on high-quality, liquid bonds, particularly in regions with strong debt support. The strategy involves selecting bonds that are trading at a discount to face value to maximize capital gains [9][10][11] 6. **Trends in Convertible Bonds** The convertible bond market outperformed equity markets in November, with a focus on valuation recovery. The market is currently in a cautious state, with potential opportunities arising from mispriced bonds [12][13][14] 7. **Impact of Year-End Fund Flows** There is a potential shift in fund flows as institutions may prefer to lock in profits before year-end, which could affect the performance of convertible bonds and overall market dynamics [15][16] 8. **Future Market Outlook** The market is expected to remain sensitive to policy changes and economic indicators, with a focus on the upcoming central economic work conference in December. Investors are encouraged to monitor liquidity and adjust their strategies accordingly [17] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion highlights the importance of understanding the local government's cash flow issues and the urgency to resolve them, which could lead to accelerated bond issuance in December [6] - The analysis of historical trends in early repayment of bonds indicates a correlation with large-scale debt refinancing, which could impact future investment strategies [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Feiling Kes (301191) [2] Core Views - Feiling Kes is a leading domestic network equipment manufacturer with strong capabilities in high-end network equipment production [6] - The company faces short-term performance pressure due to business model changes and intensified industry competition [7] - Feiling Kes is expanding its product line in high-end data center switches and entering the white-box market [8] - The company is making breakthroughs in overseas markets and investing in upstream switch chip industry [8] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.257 billion yuan, down 15.61% YoY [7] - Net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was 104 million yuan, down 14.08% YoY [7] - Gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 17.87%, up 0.63 percentage points YoY [7] - Q3 2024 revenue was 434 million yuan, down 12.84% YoY but up 4.00% QoQ [7] - Q3 2024 net profit was 28 million yuan, down 9.37% YoY and 33.40% QoQ [7] Business Development - The company is developing 200G/400G/2.0T/8.0T data center switches and expanding COME modules based on domestic CPUs [8] - Feiling Kes has established stable orders and mass production delivery with Japanese and Korean customers [8] - The company invested 20 million yuan in a switch chip-related enterprise, accounting for 36.69% of the total investment [8] Financial Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.024 billion yuan, 2.614 billion yuan, and 3.258 billion yuan respectively [11] - Net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 144 million yuan, 195 million yuan, and 257 million yuan respectively [11] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 2.07 yuan, 2.82 yuan, and 3.71 yuan respectively [11] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 17.4%-17.8% from 2024 to 2026 [9] Market Performance - The stock price closed at 82.59 yuan on November 19, 2024 [2] - The 52-week price range is 56.19-108.18 yuan [2] - Total market capitalization is 5.727 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 2.164 billion yuan [2] - The stock has underperformed the HTS Composite Index by 42.81% over the past year [3] Industry Comparison - The company's valuation is based on 35-40x PE for 2025, with a reasonable value range of 98.67-112.76 yuan [11] - Comparable companies in the industry have an average PE ratio of 48x for 2024 and 33x for 2025 [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters, with revenue of 819 million yuan, up 13.78%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 92 million yuan, up 37.73% [5] - The demand for cybersecurity is increasing, and the company is well-positioned to benefit from this trend due to its leading position in network security hardware and AI technology [7] - The company has established strong partnerships with major players in the power sector, enhancing its market presence [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company reported revenue of 317 million yuan, an increase of 14.01%, and a net profit of 40 million yuan, up 45.76% [5] - The gross margin for Q3 was 65.14%, down 4.54 percentage points, while the net margin increased by 2.77 percentage points to 12.73% [5] - The company expects revenues of 1.22 billion yuan, 1.46 billion yuan, and 1.73 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 163 million yuan, 207 million yuan, and 263 million yuan [7][9] Market Position - The company's DDoS protection products are widely used across various sectors, including government and finance, and it ranks third in the domestic market for hardware DDoS products [5] - The company has launched a "self-secured optical network solution" with leading performance metrics, achieving throughput of up to 800G [6] Cost Management - The company has optimized its expense ratios, with sales, management, financial, and R&D expense ratios at 36.68%, 3.63%, -3.85%, and 23.36%, respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [2] Core Views - The company's profitability showed signs of recovery in Q3 2024, with a significant narrowing of losses compared to the previous quarter [5] - The company is making steady progress in BC technology capacity construction, with plans to achieve 70GW of BC battery capacity by the end of 2025 [6] - The company's HPBC 2.0 technology has achieved a mass production efficiency of 26.6%, with the latest BC second-generation module products reaching up to 24.8% efficiency [7] - The company aims to achieve 30GW of BC battery shipments by 2025, with a target gross margin 10% higher than existing TOPCon products [7] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 20.064 billion yuan, down 31.87% YoY and 3.79% QoQ [5] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company was -1.261 billion yuan, a 150.14% YoY decrease but a significant narrowing of losses compared to the previous quarter [5] - The company shipped 38.37GW of silicon wafers and 21.39GW of battery modules in Q3 2024, showing sequential growth [6] Business Segments - Silicon wafer business: Expected revenue of 9.2 billion yuan in 2024, with gross margin of 4% [12] - Module business: Expected revenue of 65.6 billion yuan in 2024, with gross margin of 6% [12] - Other businesses: Expected revenue of 5.2 billion yuan in 2024, with gross margin maintained at 25% [12] Valuation and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of -7.627 billion yuan, 5.266 billion yuan, and 7.140 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8] - The report gives a reasonable value range of 22.08-24.15 yuan for 2025, based on a valuation multiple of 32-35 times [8] - Revenue is expected to grow by 22.6% and 20.7% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating an expected return exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% over the next six months [38]. Core Insights - The fifth round of debt-for-debt swaps has opened up local government debt limits and allowed for the issuance of standardized bonds, reducing interest payment pressures on local governments, which can now allocate resources more flexibly to support key sectors like environmental protection [3][4]. - The green finance initiatives are aimed at promoting energy conservation, carbon reduction, and resource recycling, aligning with national goals for sustainable development [14][15]. - The recycling industry is projected to reach an annual output value of 5 trillion yuan by 2025, with significant increases in the recycling rates of various materials [16]. - The bio-jet fuel sector is expected to grow significantly, with global production projected to reach 1.875 billion liters in 2024, although this still falls short of the aviation industry's needs [21]. - The rare earth recycling market is anticipated to become a crucial part of supply, with recycled materials potentially accounting for 50% of supply by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [23]. Summary by Sections 1. Debt-for-Debt Swaps - The debt-for-debt swap policy has created fiscal space for local governments, allowing for better resource allocation to critical areas such as environmental protection and healthcare [3][4]. - Historical data shows that previous rounds of debt swaps have led to improvements in profitability for certain sectors, particularly in water and sanitation [7]. 2. Green Finance - The report emphasizes the importance of green finance in achieving high-quality development and promoting sustainable practices across various industries [14][15]. 3. Recycling Resources - The recycling industry is set to expand significantly, with a target of 4.5 billion tons of recycled resources by 2025, contributing to a comprehensive waste recycling system [16]. - The automotive recycling sector is expected to see rapid growth due to government subsidies for scrapping old vehicles [18]. 4. Bio-Jet Fuel - Bio-jet fuel is identified as a key area for reducing carbon emissions in the aviation sector, with significant growth expected in production and consumption [21]. 5. Rare Earth Recycling - The rare earth recycling market is highlighted as a strategic area, with companies like Huahong Technology positioned to benefit from increasing demand and supply constraints [23]. 6. Recycled Metals - High Energy Environment is noted for its integrated approach to recycling metals, focusing on maximizing resource recovery from industrial waste [27]. 7. Waste Plastic Utilization - Huicheng Environmental Protection's project for recycling mixed waste plastics is a significant step towards producing high-value chemical products from low-value waste [30].