Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's current policy attitude is similar to that in Q4 2023, with a reduced desire to promote the growth of M2 and social financing. However, the current situation is due to the decline in government bond net financing, and the central bank has no intention to tighten liquidity actively but lacks the willingness to relax it. With the approaching of year - end important meetings, the policy's demand for stable growth may become clearer, and attention should be paid to whether the monetary policy attitude will change [24]. - The funds rate center this week was higher than expected. If the central bank's policy framework remains unchanged, the funds price may loosen marginally at the end of November and next week [28][49]. - The market's attention to the winning bid rate of the repurchase - type reverse repurchase has increased. The central bank may not intentionally raise the winning bid rate, but a significant decline may still require a policy rate cut [20][21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Funds Review - The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 554 billion yuan this week, and an 80 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase - type reverse repurchase operation was carried out on Monday. The monthly net injection of the repurchase - type reverse repurchase increased by 100 billion yuan to 500 billion yuan compared with October. Affected by tax payments and government bond payments, the funds tightened in the first half of the week and then loosened. DR001 reached 1.53% at one point and fell to 1.32% on Friday [3][7]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase first decreased and then increased, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 0.15 trillion yuan to 7.29 trillion yuan compared with last week. The net lending of large - scale banks first decreased and then increased, returning to 4 trillion yuan on Friday. The net lending of joint - stock banks and city commercial banks increased after Tuesday, but the net lending of joint - stock banks decreased again on Friday. The new - caliber funds gap index reached - 398 on Tuesday and then fell to - 4117 on Friday, lower than - 1918 last Friday [14]. - As of Friday, the cross - month progress of inter - bank institutions was at the lowest level in recent years, and the cross - month progress of the exchange was only higher than that in 2024. The overall cross - month progress of the market was 9.6%, 4.4 percentage points lower than the average from 2020 - 2024 [18]. - After the "Financial Times" mentioned "fund idling", the market's attention to the winning bid rate of the repurchase - type reverse repurchase increased. The 6 - month repurchase - type reverse repurchase injection in November reached 800 billion yuan, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan, reflecting the central bank's intention to maintain sufficient liquidity. However, due to the large maturity of certificates of deposit and banks' high demand for medium - term liquidity across the Spring Festival, the winning bid rate may be affected. The central bank may not intentionally raise the winning bid rate, but a significant decline may require a policy rate cut [20][21]. 1.2 Next Week's Funds Outlook - The expected government bond payment scale next week is 557.3 billion yuan, with a net payment of 308.8 billion yuan, a decrease from this week. It is estimated that the government bond issuance scale in November is 1.94 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of about 720 billion yuan compared with October. It is estimated that the government bond issuance scale in December is about 2.28 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 670 billion yuan [31][38][40]. - The maturity scale of the 7 - day reverse repurchase next week will increase from 1.122 trillion yuan to 1.676 trillion yuan, and there will also be a 900 - billion - yuan MLF maturity on Tuesday. Although the increase in reverse repurchase maturity, government bond payment pressure, and institutions' cross - month funds demand may disturb the funds, the central bank's MLF is expected to be renewed in excess, and the year - end fiscal expenditure may hedge the impact. If the central bank's policy framework remains unchanged, the funds rate may decline next week [49]. II. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate remained unchanged at 1.65% this week. The net repayment scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased by 36.97 billion yuan to 38.71 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were - 195.9 billion yuan, - 162.7 billion yuan, - 26.7 billion yuan, and - 13.7 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit increased to 39%. The maturity scale of certificates of deposit next week is about 775.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 145.8 billion yuan compared with this week [50][52]. - The issuance success rates of rural commercial banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks decreased compared with last week, while that of state - owned banks increased. The issuance spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks for 1 - year certificates of deposit narrowed. Affected by the increased funds fluctuations, fund companies tended to reduce their holdings of certificates of deposit, the willingness of money market funds to increase their holdings declined significantly, the demand of wealth management products and other products was relatively stable, and joint - stock banks tended to increase their holdings. The relative strength index of supply and demand for certificates of deposit continued to decline, falling by 4.1 percentage points to 37.7% on Friday, still in a relatively strong range. The supply - demand index of 6 - month certificates of deposit increased, while that of other maturities decreased slightly [53][65]. III. Bill Market - The bill rate continued to rise after Tuesday this week. The 3 - month and 6 - month national bill rates increased by 18BP and 14BP respectively compared with November 14th, reaching 0.58% and 0.77% [70]. IV. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - The bond market continued to fluctuate narrowly this week, and the credit and secondary - tier perpetual bond spreads were relatively stable. The willingness of large - scale banks to increase their bond holdings decreased slightly, mainly due to the significant weakening of the willingness to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit, a slight decrease in the willingness to increase their holdings of short - term treasury bonds, and an increase in the willingness to reduce their holdings of medium - term notes. Trading - type institutions' willingness to increase their bond holdings increased slightly, while allocation - type institutions' willingness to increase their bond holdings decreased [73].

10 月份全国全社会用电量同比增长 10.4%，国际气价周环比上涨 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 化工行业： 唐婵玉 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500525050001 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 10 月份全国全社会用电量同比增长 10.4%，国际气 价周环比上涨 2025 年 11 月 23 日 本期内容提 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the environmental protection industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of a circular economy, which is expected to unlock potential in the recycling metal industry, making it a significant area for investment [2][3] - China's non-ferrous metal resources are unevenly distributed, with copper, aluminum, and nickel reserves being relatively scarce, leading to high import dependence [3][17] - The demand for copper is projected to increase significantly due to the growth of new energy sectors and data centers, with a potential supply gap of 30% by 2035 [26][29] - The production of recycled metals is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality, with significant energy and water savings compared to primary metal production [29][30] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of November 21, the environmental protection sector declined by 6.02%, underperforming the broader market, which fell by 3.90% [3][10] - The water management and waste treatment sub-sectors also experienced declines of 4.50% and 9.76%, respectively [11][12] Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance announced early allocation of the 2026 budget for clean energy development, supporting unconventional natural gas extraction [35] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notice regarding carbon emission trading quotas for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries for 2024 and 2025 [36] - The production of ten major non-ferrous metals in China is expected to grow at an annual rate of around 5% [30][31] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the water and waste incineration sectors, which are expected to maintain stable profitability and positive cash flow [3][30] - Key recommended stocks include: Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention to Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co. [3][30]

- The report does not mention any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it provide details on their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The content primarily focuses on market trends, fund flows, and sector allocations without delving into quantitative methodologies or factor-based analyses. [1][2][3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Luk Fook Holdings (0590.HK) with expectations of significant revenue and profit growth in FY2026H1 [1]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 20%-30% and a net profit growth of 40%-50% for the six months ending September 30, 2025, driven by rising gold prices, an increase in the sales proportion of priced jewelry products, and operational leverage enhancing profit margins [1]. - Same-store sales have shown a positive trend, with retail value growth of 13% year-on-year from April to June and 18% from July to September, indicating a robust recovery and consumer acceptance despite rising gold prices [2]. - The pricing of gold products continues to perform well, with a 67% year-on-year increase in same-store sales for priced gold products, reflecting strong consumer demand [3]. - The company is expanding its market presence, with a total of 2,634 stores as of September, and plans to open 20 new stores overseas in FY2026, including a recent entry into Vietnam [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY2026-2028 are as follows: HKD 15.58 billion in 2026, HKD 17.51 billion in 2027, and HKD 19.42 billion in 2028, representing growth rates of 17%, 12%, and 11% respectively [6]. - The expected net profit for the same period is HKD 1.45 billion in 2026, HKD 1.68 billion in 2027, and HKD 1.89 billion in 2028, with growth rates of 32%, 16%, and 13% respectively [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from HKD 1.87 in 2025 to HKD 3.22 by 2028 [6][8].

—— 信用利差周度跟踪 20251122 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 11 月 22 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 利率平稳信用窄幅波动 民企地产利差继续抬升 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524080002 联系电话：+86 15850662789 联系电话：+86 15850662789 邮 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 3利率平稳信用窄幅波动 民企地产利差继续抬升 [Table_ReportDate] 2 ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that since November, the US stock market has continued to weaken, with increased volatility in the A-share market. The main reasons for the recent volatility in the US market include a cooling expectation of interest rate cuts in December, a decline in market risk appetite, and significant concerns regarding the degree of AI bubble. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is at a high level, approaching the peak during the dot-com bubble, while the Nasdaq index's P/E ratio is also high but still has a considerable distance from the dot-com bubble peak [2][8][9] - The financial pressure on major US tech companies is rapidly increasing, with some financial pressure indicators nearing levels seen during the dot-com bubble. The capital expenditure to revenue ratio for the seven major US tech companies has risen to 19% as of Q3 2025, compared to a peak of 10% during the dot-com bubble. Additionally, the capital expenditure to free cash flow ratio has exceeded 100%, indicating significant financial strain [3][16][20] - The report emphasizes that the core factors influencing the magnitude and duration of overseas market volatility are liquidity and inflation, rather than earnings. Historical examples show that liquidity tightening due to interest rate hikes has led to valuation corrections in high-valuation sectors. The most critical factor for the sustainability of a slow bull market in the US is persistent low inflation [3][23][28] Group 2 - The report suggests that the current valuation levels of the US stock market indicate a bubble-like state, with the S&P 500's P/E ratio exceeding the average by more than one standard deviation since 2000. The peak P/E ratio was approximately 29.8 times at the end of October, close to the 30 times peak during the dot-com bubble [11][12][14] - The report also notes that the potential for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in 2026 is higher, with a low probability of aggressive rate hikes leading to a valuation bubble burst. The ongoing strength of the US stock market since October 2022 is attributed more to easing inflation than to changes in earnings [28][29] - The report highlights tactical and strategic views on the market, indicating that while the foundation for a bull market remains solid, there may be wide fluctuations due to weak economic data and adjustments in overseas markets. There are opportunities for upward movement in the A-share market if there are positive policy or funding changes by the end of the year [29][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, although the index showed a weakening trend, the derivatives market demonstrated a relatively restrained emotional response. The VIX increased overall but did not experience an extreme upward movement. The SKEW continued to rise, but most varieties except the Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 remained below the extreme threshold, indicating that investors' concerns about tail - risks were relatively rational. More positively, the futures index market increased its positions by over 70,000 contracts this week, and the basis of small - and medium - cap futures improved significantly, with the IM basis narrowing by nearly 100 points, suggesting that funds were making structural layouts during the market adjustment, presenting a market characteristic of index pressure but non - extreme expectations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Estimation of Dividends during the Lifespan of Stock Index Futures Contracts and Basis Correction - **Dividend Estimation**: On November 21, 2025, the estimated dividend points for the CSI 500, SSE 50, CSI 1000, and Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 indexes in the next year were 80.73, 63.63, 63.40, and 80.42 respectively. The estimated dividend points during the lifespan of different contracts for each index were also provided [4][9]. - **Basis Correction**: The basis of a stock index futures contract is the difference between the contract's closing price and the closing price of the underlying index. When analyzing the contract basis, the impact of dividends needs to be removed. This week, the adjusted annualized basis of the current - quarter IC contract increased, while those of the IF, IH, and IM contracts decreased. The trading and holding levels of IC, IF, IH, and IM contracts increased compared to the previous week [19][20][26]. 3.2. Back - testing and Tracking of Spot - Futures Hedging Strategies - **Strategy Introduction**: The strategy is based on the analysis of basis convergence factors and optimization strategies in the relevant research report. Two strategies, continuous hedging and minimum basis strategy, are used for back - testing, with specific parameter settings provided [45][46]. - **Performance of Different Strategies**: For different indexes (CSI 500, Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000), the back - testing results of different strategies (continuous hedging and minimum basis strategy) from July 22, 2022, to November 21, 2025, are presented, including indicators such as annualized return, volatility, maximum drawdown, net value, and annual turnover times. This week, the IC and IM hedging strategies had drawdowns, while the IF and IH hedging strategies performed stably [48][50][55]. 3.3. Cinda Options Series Indexes - **Cinda Volatility Index Cinda - VIX**: Cinda - VIX can reflect investors' expectations of the future volatility of the underlying asset. As of November 21, 2025, the 30 - day VIX values for the SSE 50, Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 19.95, 21.49, 32.21, and 26.91 respectively [63]. - **Cinda Volatility Index Cinda - SKEW**: The SKEW index measures the degree of volatility skew. When the SKEW index exceeds 100, it usually means that investors are more worried about the risk of a significant market decline. As of November 21, 2025, the SKEW values for the SSE 50, Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 104.78, 104.75, 104.79, and 106.83 respectively [71][72].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Miniso (9896.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on strong performance metrics and growth potential. Core Insights - Miniso reported a revenue of 15.19 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 23.7%. The adjusted net profit for the same period was 2.046 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.5% [1][2] - The company's same-store sales growth in China reached low double-digit levels in October 2025, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [2] - The TOP TOY segment showed exceptional performance with a revenue increase of 87.9% year-over-year, contributing significantly to overall growth [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Miniso achieved a revenue of 5.797 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 28.2%. Domestic revenue was 2.909 billion yuan (yoy +19.3%), while overseas revenue was 2.312 billion yuan (yoy +27.7%). TOP TOY's Q3 revenue was 575 million yuan (yoy +111.4%) [2] - The adjusted operating profit margin for Q3 was 17.6%, showing a narrowing decline of 2.1 percentage points, indicating improved profitability [3] Store Expansion - As of the end of Q3 2025, Miniso had a total of 8,138 stores globally, with 4,407 in China and 3,424 overseas. The company opened 718 new stores year-over-year, with 75.7% of new openings in overseas markets [3] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 2.703 billion yuan, 3.438 billion yuan, and 4.232 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.4X, 12.9X, and 10.5X [4][6]

Contribution to Exports - New "three new" products contributed 2.5 percentage points to export growth, which is half of the 5.1 percentage points contributed by electromechanical products[1] - New "three new" products accounted for only 7.5% of the total electromechanical product exports, yet contributed approximately 50% to the growth of electromechanical exports[8] - Total export value of new "three new" products reached $126 billion, reflecting a growth of over 55% compared to the same period last year[7] Growth Drivers - The primary growth driver for new "three new" products is the electric vehicle sector, which saw a threefold increase in export value, raising its share from 14% to 38% within the new "three new" category[18] - Lithium-ion batteries, while still the largest segment within the new "three new" products, saw a decrease in share from 54% to 44% due to slower growth compared to electric vehicles[18] - Photovoltaic products experienced a decline in export value despite an increase in quantity, indicating a trend of rising volume but falling prices[18] Market Dynamics - Exports of new "three new" products are primarily directed towards Europe (39.5%) and Asia (37.1%), with a notable increase in market penetration in Africa, where the share rose to 3.1%[20][22] - Africa is the only region where the share of all categories of new "three new" products is increasing, suggesting significant growth potential in this market[20][21] - The growth rate of new "three new" products in Africa has expanded by 0.6 percentage points over the past year, indicating a rapidly developing market[20] Risk Factors - Potential risks include insufficient policy support for economic growth, lower-than-expected global economic conditions, and unexpected trade frictions[27]