1-2 月快递行业数据跟踪点评 [Table_ReportType] ——交通运输行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点： Table_Summary] 3209 网上零售需求有望在国内消费需求提振政策支持下加快释 放，叠加行业小件化趋势等因素影响预计行业件量增长有一 定保障，但行业价格竞争局面预计短期内较难改变，但受成 本约束以及监管引导等因素影响预计后续价格下降空间有 限，当前行业主要个股估值处于历史相对低位，建议积极关 注估值修复机会。 投资要点： ⚫ 2025 年 1-2 月实物商品网上零售额增速有所回落：2025 年 1-2 月实物商品网上零售额为 1.86 万亿元，同比+5%，较 2024 年增 速下降 1.5pct，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为 22.30%，较 2024 年下降 4.5pct。近日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印 发《提振消费专项行动方案》，以增收减负提升消费能力，以高 质量供给创造有效需求，以优化消费环境增强消费意愿，随着政 策的实施落地，消费需求有望加快释放。 ⚫ 小件化及电商促销等因素推动下快递件量维持较高增速，叠加竞 争压力单件价格仍下行：1- ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the broader market within the next six months [43]. Core Insights - The overall inverter export performance in China for January and February 2025 was stable, with a cumulative export value of 7.632 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.97% [1][2]. - The Asian market showed robust growth, with exports to the region increasing significantly, particularly to emerging markets like India and Pakistan, where household storage demand has rebounded [3][15]. - In contrast, the European market experienced a decline in exports, with negative growth observed in January and February, although some countries like Germany and the UK showed positive year-on-year growth [4][21]. - The North American market saw a strong performance in January but a significant drop in February, with exports to the U.S. declining by 49.23% year-on-year [8][28]. - The African market remained stable, with signs of recovery in South Africa, where exports increased significantly in February [9][29]. Summary by Sections Global Market Performance - In January and February 2025, China's inverter export values were 4.389 billion yuan and 3.243 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining positive year-on-year growth of 9.10% and 2.01% [14]. Regional Performance Asia - Exports to Asia were strong, with January and February values of 1.679 billion yuan and 1.195 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 35.05% and 25.10% [15]. - Notable increases in exports to countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, India, and Pakistan were recorded, with growth rates exceeding 60% in several cases [3][15]. Europe - Exports to Europe were 1.373 billion yuan and 1.083 billion yuan for January and February, respectively, with both months showing negative year-on-year growth [4][21]. - Germany and the UK were exceptions, achieving positive growth rates of 15.84% and 26.40% in February [21]. North America - Exports to North America totaled 236 million yuan in January and dropped to 88 million yuan in February, with a year-on-year decline of 50.34% [8][28]. Africa - The African market showed resilience, with exports of 333 million yuan and 330 million yuan in January and February, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 61.07% in February [9][29]. Investment Recommendations - The long-term outlook for the industry is positive, driven by rapid growth in global renewable energy installations and increasing demand for energy storage solutions [41]. - Key growth areas include emerging markets such as India, Pakistan, Brazil, and Nigeria, which are expected to provide significant opportunities for storage demand [41]. - It is recommended to focus on leading companies with strong market positions and comprehensive overseas strategies [41].

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced slight adjustments on Tuesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3369.98 points, unchanged from the previous day, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.43% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.33%. The total market turnover was 128.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.69 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 2700 stocks declining across the market. Sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, chemicals, coal, and electricity saw the largest gains, while sectors like computing leasing, marine engineering equipment, and robotics faced the largest declines [2][7]. Important News - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to accelerate the implementation of various consumption expansion policies, focusing on upgrading products, expanding services, cultivating new consumption types, and innovating consumption scenarios. It is expected that the overall consumption market will continue to show stable development this year as these policies take effect [3][8]. - In the first two months of 2025, China's total foreign direct investment amounted to 159.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% (approximately 22.24 billion USD, down 4.1%). Domestic investors made non-financial direct investments in 2799 overseas enterprises across 142 countries and regions, totaling 164.86 billion yuan, which represents a growth of 10.2% (about 22.97 billion USD, up 9.1%) [3][8].

【市场回顾】周二 A 股三大指数小幅调整。截至收盘，上证综指收报 3369.98 点，与前一日持平，深成指跌 0.43%，创业板指跌 0.33%。 全市场成交额 12875 亿元，较上日减少 1869 亿元。全市场超 2700 只 个股下跌。板块题材上，可控核聚变、化工、煤炭、电力板块涨幅居 前；算力租赁、海工装备、机器人概念股跌幅居前。 【重要新闻】 市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 03 月 26 日 星期三 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【商务部：加快落实各项扩消费政策措施】3 月 25 日下午，商务部 召开专题新闻发布会，相关负责人表示，商务部将协同推进提振消费 专项行动，围绕扩消费开展升级商品、扩大服务、培育新型消费和创 新消费场景四方面工作。 随着各项扩消费政策措施持续发力，今年 消费市场总体将继续呈现平稳发展态势。 【2025 年 1-2 月我国全行业对外直接投资简明统计发布】据商务部、 外汇局统计，2025 年 1-2 月，我国全行业对外直接投资 1596.2 亿元 人民币，同比下降 3.1%（以 ...

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 03 月 25 日 星期二 [Table_Summary] 概览 [Table_MeetContact] 主持人: 宫慧菁 Email: gonghj@wlzq.com.cn 证 券 研 究 报 告 核心观点 【市场回顾】周一 A 股主要指数小幅上涨。截至收盘，上证综指涨 0.15%，深成指涨 0.07%，创业板指涨 0.01%，北证 50 指数涨 0.94%。 全市场成交额 14744 亿元，较上日减少 1053 亿元。全市场超 3800 只 个股下跌。板块题材上，旅游及酒店、保险、化工、工业金属板块涨 幅居前；脑机接口、算力租赁、军工、机器人概念股跌幅居前。 【重要新闻】 【中国发展高层论坛释放多领域政策信号】3 月 23 日，中国发展高 层论坛 2025 年年会在北京开幕。会上，中央财经委员会办公室、工 信部、财政部等部门相关负责人集中发声，释放了综合施策扩大消费、 加快发展新质生产力、有效防范化解重点领域风险等多重政策信号。 【财政部发布 2024 年中国财政政策执行情况报告】财政部 3 ...

核心观点 市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 03 月 25 日 星期二 [Table_Summary] 概览 【市场回顾】周一 A 股主要指数小幅上涨。截至收盘，上证综指涨 0.15%，深成指涨 0.07%，创业板指涨 0.01%，北证 50 指数涨 0.94%。 全市场成交额 14744 亿元，较上日减少 1053 亿元。全市场超 3800 只 个股下跌。板块题材上，旅游及酒店、保险、化工、工业金属板块涨 幅居前；脑机接口、算力租赁、军工、机器人概念股跌幅居前。 【重要新闻】 【中国发展高层论坛释放多领域政策信号】3 月 23 日，中国发展高 层论坛 2025 年年会在北京开幕。会上，中央财经委员会办公室、工 信部、财政部等部门相关负责人集中发声，释放了综合施策扩大消费、 加快发展新质生产力、有效防范化解重点领域风险等多重政策信号。 【财政部发布 2024 年中国财政政策执行情况报告】财政部 3 月 24 日 发布的 2024 年中国财政政策执行情况报告显示，2025 年财政政策要 更加积极，持续用力、更加给力。具体体现在五个方 ...

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 03 月 21 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周四，A 股三大指数全线收跌，上证指数跌 0.51%，报 3408.95 点， 深证成指跌 0.91%，创业板指跌 1.00%。两市 A 股成交额约 1.44 万亿 元人民币，超 2900 股下跌。申万行业方面，石油石化、汽车行业领 涨；概念板块方面，可燃冰、减速器、海工装备概念涨幅居前。港股 方面，恒生指数收跌 2.23%，报 24,219.95 点，恒生科技指数跌 3.39%。 美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌 0.03%，标普 500 指数跌 0.22%，纳 指跌 0.33%。欧洲及亚太股市涨跌不一。 【重要新闻】 【最新贷款市场报价利率维持不变】3 月 20 日，中国人民银行授权 全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025 年 3 月 20 日贷款市场报价利率 （LPR）为：1 年期 LPR 为 3.1%，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.6%，均较上期 维持不变。目前，无论是企业贷款利率还是个人贷款利率都处于低位 ...

业绩高增长，多元化布局见成效 [Table_StockName] ——东鹏饮料（605499）点评报告 [Table_ReportDate] [Table_Summary] 事件: 2025 年 3 月 8 日，公司发布 2024 年年度报告。 投资要点: 公司 2024 年全年业绩高增长。2024 年全年，公司实现营收 158.39 亿 元（同比+40.63%），归母净利润 33.27 亿元（同比+63.09%），扣非归 母净利润 32.62 亿元（同比+74.48%）。其中 2024Q4 单季度公司营收 /归母净利润分别同比+25.12%/+61.21%至 32.81/6.19 亿元，扣非归母 净利润同比增加 62.97%至 5.99 亿元，增速环比 2024Q3 有所放缓， 但仍保持在高增长区间。 证券研究报告|食品饮料 紧抓消费复苏与健康化升级契机，多元化产品战略布局已见成效：2024 增持(维持) 年，公司继续实行全渠道精耕策略，同时积极开拓全国销售渠道，带动 500ml 金瓶及"东鹏补水啦" 等新品销量增长，500ml 瓶装东鹏特饮 在尼尔森中国饮料单品排行中稳居前三。据尼尔森 IQ 公开发布的数 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [4][11]. Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in 2024, with revenue reaching 15.839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [2][11]. - The company has successfully implemented a diversified product strategy, leading to increased sales in various categories, particularly in energy drinks, which accounted for 83.99% of total revenue [3][11]. - The company aims for a revenue and net profit growth of over 20% in 2025, with adjusted profit forecasts indicating net profits of 4.029 billion yuan in 2025 [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.281 billion yuan and a net profit of 619 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.12% and 61.21%, respectively [2]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 44.81%, an increase of 1.74 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 21.00%, up 2.89 percentage points [10]. Product and Market Strategy - The company has focused on a multi-channel strategy, leading to a significant increase in sales of new products like "Dongpeng Water" and maintaining a strong position in the energy drink market, with a market share increase from 43.0% in 2023 to 47.9% in 2024 [3][11]. - The company’s energy drink revenue was 13.304 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.49%, while electrolyte drink revenue surged by 280.37% to 1.495 billion yuan [3]. Regional Performance - Revenue from the Guangdong region was 4.360 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.93%, while other regions such as East China and Central China saw revenue growth rates of 45.13% and 48.17%, respectively [3][9]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 20.154 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 27.24%, and net profits of 4.029 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 21.11% [11][13].

证券研究报告|商贸零售 1-2 月社零总额同比+4.0%，增速环比回升 [Table_ReportType] ——2025 年 1-2 月社零数据跟踪报告[Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] ⚫ 总体：1-2 月社零同比+4.0%，较 2024 年 12 月增速有所回升。1- 2 月我国社会消费品零售总额 83,731 亿元，同比增长 4.0%，较 2024 年 12 月同比增速回升 0.3pcts。①按消费类型分类：商品零 售和餐饮收入增速较上月均有所回升。1-2 月商品零售同比 +3.9%，较 2024 年 12 月增速+1.2pcts；餐饮收入同比+4.3%，较 2024 年 12 月增速+0.4pcts。限上企业商品零售额同比+4.4%，较 2024 年 12 月增速+0.2pcts。②按地区分类：城镇和乡村社零增 速均有所提升，乡村增速高于城镇。1-2 月城镇消费品零售额同 比+3.8%，较 2024 年 12 月增速提升 0.1pcts；1-2 月乡村消费品 零售额同比+4.6%，较 2024 年 12 月增速提升 0.8pcts。 ⚫ 细分：必选消费品 ...