策略研究|策略跟踪报告 地方两会召开，明确发展目标 [Table_ReportType] ——策略跟踪报告 [Table_ReportDate] [Table_Title] [Table_ReportList] 相关研究 中长期资金入市步伐有望加快 推动中长期资金入市，促进资本市场长期健 康发展 证监会研究部署 2025 年重点工作 策 略 研 究 策 略 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_RightTitle] 2025 年 02 月 07 日 | | | | [Table_Authors] 分析师: | 宫慧菁 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号： | S0270524010001 | | 电话： | 020-32255208 | | 邮箱： | gonghj@wlzq.com.cn | 3245 ⚫ 多地召开两会，明确今年工作重点。截至 2 月 6 日，31 个 省（自治区、直辖市）已全部召开了地方两会，公布了 2025 年经济社会发展的主要预期目标，明确各地产业发展思路 及年度工作重点。多个主要经济大省明确坚持稳中求进工 作基调，扎实推动高质量发展，推动经济持续回升向 ...

证券研究报告|社会服务 [Table_Title] 春节旅游迎开门红 文化游与冰雪游表现亮 眼 [Table_ReportType] ——旅游行业 2025 年春节黄金周数据跟踪报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点： Table_Summary] 经文旅部数据中心测算，2025 年春节假期 8 天，全国国内出游 5.01 亿人次，同比增长 5.9%；国内出游总花费 6770.02 亿元，同比增长 7.0%。今年春节是首个"非遗版"春节，各地乘申遗东风推出多彩文 化民俗活动，博物馆过大年成为热门选择，客流保持高位，文化游氛 围浓厚。冰雪游持续火热，滑雪旅游度假地人气高涨，冰灯艺术游园 会、冰雪旅游演艺等新场景、新业态、新玩法也为冰雪旅游注入新的 活力。建议关注：1）经营业绩稳定、有效满足个性化与多元化需求 的景区与演艺公司；2）受益于出入境恢复带来口岸免税回暖以及市 内免税政策松绑的免税龙头。 投资要点： 春节旅游市场景气度维持高位。全国国内旅游出游人次同比增长 5.9%， 国内游客出游总花费同比增长 7.0%，在去年同期高基数下稳步增长。 跨境游市场景气度维持高位，国外旅客数量增长亮眼。假 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.27% to close at 3,270.66 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.26%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.8%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.54 trillion yuan [2][7] - In the industry sectors, automotive, electronics, and computer industries led the gains, while concept sectors such as DeepSeek, humanoid robots, and AI glasses also saw increases [2][7] - The Hong Kong stock market also showed strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.43% at 20,891.62 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.62% [2][7] - Internationally, the US stock indices had mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.28% at 44,747.63 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by 0.36% and 0.51%, respectively [2][7] Important News - According to the latest VAT invoice data from the State Taxation Administration, the average daily sales revenue of consumption-related industries during the Spring Festival holiday increased by 10.8% compared to the previous year. Notably, home appliances and audio-visual equipment sales surged by 166.4%, while mobile communication devices saw a growth of 181.9% [3][8] - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo is scheduled to be held in Beijing from July 16 to 20, 2025, covering an area of 120,000 square meters and featuring six major supply chain categories [3][8] Film Industry Insights - The Spring Festival box office reached a new high, with total earnings of 9.51 billion yuan, marking an 18.6% year-on-year increase. The first day of the festival saw a record box office of 1.81 billion yuan [9][10] - The significant increase in audience attendance, with 187 million viewers, was a major driver of box office growth, alongside a slight rise in average ticket prices to 50.8 yuan [9][10] - The competition during the Spring Festival was intense, with the top films showing significant box office concentration. The leading film, "Nezha: The Devil Child Comes to the World," grossed 4.839 billion yuan, accounting for 51% of the total box office [10][11] - The film "Nezha" broke the record for the highest box office for a single Chinese film, surpassing "The Battle at Lake Changjin" [10][11] - The strong performance of the Spring Festival box office is expected to boost confidence in the film market for 2025, potentially stimulating overall industry output and related consumer spending [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - The Spring Festival box office performance exceeded expectations, achieving a total box office of 9.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%, setting a new record for the Spring Festival box office [1][2] - The significant increase in audience attendance, reaching 187 million viewers, was the main driver of box office growth, with an average ticket price rising slightly to 50.8 yuan [1] - The competition during the Spring Festival was intense, with the top films showing a clear gradient and high concentration, where the first-tier film "Nezha" contributed 4.839 billion yuan, accounting for 51% of the total box office [2] - "Nezha" broke the record for the highest box office for a single Chinese film, surpassing "The Battle at Lake Changjin" with a total box office expected to reach 9.537 billion yuan [2] Summary by Sections Box Office Performance - The Spring Festival box office reached 9.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%, with daily box office figures remaining strong throughout the festival [1] - The first day of the festival saw a record high of 1.81 billion yuan, with subsequent days maintaining over 1.2 billion yuan [1] Audience Engagement - Audience attendance surged to 187 million, significantly contributing to the box office growth, alongside a slight increase in average ticket prices [1] Film Concentration - The top films showed a high concentration, with the first and second tiers accounting for 74% of the total box office, indicating a competitive landscape [2] Investment Recommendations - The strong performance of the Spring Festival is expected to boost confidence in the film market for 2025, suggesting a focus on quality film production companies and cinema chains [3]

Market Overview - On the first trading day of the Year of the Snake, the A-share market opened high but closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.65% at 3,229.49 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.08% and the ChiNext Index fell 0.04% [1][6] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.29 trillion yuan [1][6] - In terms of industry performance, sectors such as computer, media, and electronics led the gains, while coal, building materials, and food and beverage sectors lagged [1][6] - Concept stocks like DeepSeek, MLOps, and Zhipu AI saw increases, whereas sectors like copper cable high-speed connection, F5G concept, and glyphosate experienced declines [1][6] Important News - The 2025 Spring Festival box office in China reached 9.51 billion yuan, with 187 million viewers, setting new records for both box office and attendance [2][6] - The film "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child" grossed over 5.6 billion yuan, contributing approximately 950 million to 1.01 billion yuan in revenue for Light Media as of February 4 [2][6] - Premier Li Qiang chaired the seventh plenary meeting of the State Council, emphasizing the need for targeted development goals and increased counter-cyclical adjustments to address prominent issues [7]

Market Overview - On the last trading day before the holiday, the A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06% at 3,250.6 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.33%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.73% [1][6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.12 trillion yuan [1][6] - In terms of industry performance, banking, public utilities, and building materials led the gains, while telecommunications, electronics, and machinery equipment lagged [1][6] - Concept sectors such as genetically modified organisms, AI intelligence, and corn saw increases, while sectors like copper cable high-speed connections, F5G concepts, and humanoid robots experienced declines [1][6] Important News - The State Council Tariff Commission announced that starting from February 10, 2025, tariffs will be increased on certain imported goods from the United States. Specifically, a 15% tariff will be imposed on coal and liquefied natural gas, while a 10% tariff will apply to crude oil, agricultural machinery, large displacement vehicles, and pickups [2][6] - The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 50.1, down from 50.5, marking the fourth consecutive month in the expansion zone. Various sub-indices showed mixed results, with production, new orders, finished goods inventory, business expectations, and supplier delivery time indices rising in the expansion zone, while the new export orders index slightly rebounded from the contraction zone, indicating accelerated growth in manufacturing supply and demand, improved external demand, logistics conditions, and business expectations [2][7]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.7% to 3252.63 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.15%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.36%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.22 trillion yuan [1][6] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index closed up by 1.86% at 20066.19 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 3.15% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 2.06% [1][6] - The U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down by 0.32% to 44424.25 points, the S&P 500 down by 0.29% to 6101.24 points, and the Nasdaq down by 0.5% to 19954.3 points [1][6] Important News - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to upgrade commodity consumption and stabilize the consumer market in 2025, focusing on initiatives such as promoting "AI + consumption" and enhancing service consumption [7] - Among the 31 provinces in China, 30 have reported their GDP data for 2024, with five provinces reaching new trillion-yuan milestones. Jiangsu, Hubei, and Anhui led in actual growth rates, while Hubei, Sichuan, and Fujian led in nominal growth rates [2][7] Industry Insights - The 2025 Spring Festival film season is expected to feature six major films, with a strong potential for box office growth due to favorable policies and sufficient supply [12][14] - The 2024 Spring Festival box office reached a record high of 8.016 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.86%, driven by an extended holiday and the overlap with Valentine's Day [12][13] - The 2025 Spring Festival box office is projected to reach 13.695 billion yuan, with top films expected to include "Nezha: The Devil's Child" and "Detective Chinatown 1900" [13][14]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the pace of long-term capital entering the market is expected to accelerate, driven by favorable policies aimed at promoting the healthy development of the capital market [2][4][43]. Market Overview - As of January 23, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,230.16 points, down 3.63% from the end of December. Major indices such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300 experienced significant declines [10][11]. - The A-share market saw a decrease in trading activity, with the average daily turnover from January 1 to January 22 being 120.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.99% month-on-month [28][34]. Market Liquidity and Risk Sentiment - The liquidity environment in the A-share market is expected to improve, as the scale of lock-up releases decreased and net selling by major shareholders declined. A joint implementation plan was issued by six departments to promote the entry of long-term capital into the market [21][24]. - Investor confidence in the A-share market has slightly declined, with trading activity cooling as the Spring Festival approaches. However, sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) continue to perform well, particularly in communications and electronics [30][46]. Valuation Levels - As of January 23, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the major A-share indices indicates that the technology-heavy ChiNext index is at a historical high, while the P/E ratios for the CSI 300 and SSE 50 have decreased significantly [39][41]. - Most sectors have seen a decline in valuation levels, with industries such as basic chemicals, electronics, and real estate exceeding the historical 50th percentile for P/E ratios [41]. Policy Analysis - The report highlights that the Chinese government is implementing more proactive macroeconomic policies to stimulate domestic demand and promote technological and industrial innovation. A joint plan was issued to enhance the investment of long-term capital in the stock market [43][44]. - The focus is on increasing the investment ratios of commercial insurance and national social security funds in equity assets, aiming to stabilize market expectations and improve investor sentiment [43][46]. Market Outlook and Sector Recommendations - The overall economic operation in China is expected to remain stable, with policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and technological innovation. The report suggests that sectors benefiting from increased consumer demand and technological advancements should be closely monitored [46][47].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating a potential increase of over 10% relative to the market index in the next six months [5][36]. Core Insights - The 2024 Spring Festival box office reached a record high of 8.016 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.86%, driven by an extended holiday and the overlap with Valentine's Day [1][11]. - The 2025 Spring Festival is expected to feature six major films, with a total box office forecast of 13.695 billion yuan, led by "Nezha: The Devil Child Comes to the World," "Detective Chinatown 1900," and "Fengshen Part 2: The War of the West" [2][23]. - Various provinces are issuing viewing subsidies to stimulate audience enthusiasm, which will significantly boost box office performance during the Spring Festival [3][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The 2024 Spring Festival box office was the highest in history, with significant contributions from major films like "Hot and Spicy" and "Fast and Furious 2," which accounted for nearly 70% of the total box office [1][11]. - The audience's enthusiasm for viewing has surged, with attendance rising to 160 million, despite a slight decrease in average ticket prices [12]. 2. 2025 Spring Festival Outlook - The 2025 Spring Festival will be dominated by IP sequels, with a diverse range of films catering to various audience preferences [2][17]. - Pre-sale data shows "The Legend of the Condor Heroes: The Hero of the Great" leading with a pre-sale box office of 154 million yuan, followed by "Nezha: The Devil Child Comes to the World" and "Detective Chinatown 1900" [21][22]. 3. Policy Support - Various provinces, including Beijing and Guangdong, are implementing viewing subsidies to enhance audience engagement and support box office performance during the Spring Festival [3][28]. - The national policy aims to stimulate consumption and boost economic recovery, with significant financial support for the film industry [28][29]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The 2025 Spring Festival is anticipated to release a substantial amount of box office revenue in a short period, supported by a rich supply of films and government subsidies [32].

Core Insights - The report highlights the mixed performance of the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.51% while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices fell by 0.49% and 0.37% respectively, with a total trading volume of 1.355 trillion yuan [2][7] - Key sectors leading the market include banking, non-bank financials, and real estate, while telecommunications, electronics, and defense industries lagged behind [2][7] - The report notes significant developments in the capital market, particularly the push for long-term funds to enter the market, which is expected to enhance the quality of capital market development [4][9] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,230.16, up by 0.51% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,176.17, down by 0.49% - The ChiNext Index closed at 2,093.31, down by 0.37% - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.355 trillion yuan [5][7] Important News - The State Council held a press conference on January 23, announcing measures to promote long-term funds entering the market, including a target for public funds to increase their holdings of A-share market value by at least 10% annually over the next three years [3][8] - The total loan amount for "white list" real estate projects has reached 5.6 trillion yuan, supporting the construction and delivery of 14 million housing units [3][8] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the implementation of a plan to encourage long-term funds to enter the market, which includes five major initiatives aimed at improving the investment environment and increasing the proportion of equity investments [9][10] - The plan aims to enhance the stability of insurance funds' investments in A-shares and optimize the investment management mechanisms of social security and pension funds [10][11] - It also encourages companies to increase share buybacks and implement more frequent dividend policies to boost investor confidence [12]