[Table_Main] 行业研究|电信服务 证券研究报告 电信服务行业周报 2025 年 01 月 06 日 [Table_Title] GB300 服务器或于 Q2 发布，兼顾端侧及基础硬件 ——通信行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场整体行情及通信细分板块行情回顾 周行情：本周（2024.12.30-2025.01.03）上证综指回调 5.55%，深 证成指回调7.16%，创业板回调8.57%。本周申万通信回调 9.95%。 考虑通信行业的高景气度延续，AI、5.5G 及卫星通信持续推动行业 发展，我们给予通信及电子行业"推荐"评级。 细分行业：本周（2024.12.30-2025.01.03）通信板块三级子行业 中，通信终端及配件回调幅度最低，跌幅为 10.96%，其他通信设备 回调幅度最高，跌幅为 12.73%，本周各细分板块主要呈回调趋势。 个股方面：本周（2024.12.30-2025.01.03）通信板块上涨、下跌和 走平的个股数量占比分别为 7.87%、89.76%和 2.36%。其中，涨幅板 块分析方面，欣天科技（35.21%）、*ST 通脉（21.48%）、*ST ...

行业研究|可选消费|汽车与汽车零部件 证券研究报告 2025 年 01 月 06 日 汽车与汽车零部件行业 周报、月报 [Table_Title] 车企优惠、商用车与智能化 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 政策空窗期下，企业端优惠再起，但整体力度未显著强于去年 12 月底 1 月初，受 2024 年"以旧换新"政策截止，但 2025 年新政策尚 未公布影响，车企端为稳定消费，纷纷推出各类优惠政策。如理想汽车 推出 1 月 1 日-31 日订车，若期间内无置换补贴政策，则理想汽车给与 15000 元/台的现金补贴。此外蔚来、零跑汽车、比亚迪、岚图、极氪、 极狐、东风本田、别克等均推出类似弥补政府补贴空窗期的企业优惠补 贴。长安深蓝、启源、阿维塔、小鹏、荣威、智己、五菱、特斯拉等则通 过直接优惠的方式吸引消费者。整体对比看，部分新势力的优惠或补贴 幅度优于去年，传统车企的优惠力度比去年的力度仍有不足。车企端优 惠能够一定程度提振政策空窗期的消费信心。 商用车销量显著提升与红利股趋势共振，但上游排产改善仍需观察 2024 年 12 月重卡销量 7.9 万台，环比增长 15%，同比增长 52%，高于 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industrial sector, specifically highlighting the mechanical equipment industry as a focus area for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for mass production of humanoid robots, particularly from Tesla, which is expected to lead the market. It suggests monitoring the supply chain and key component suppliers involved in this sector [2]. - The report identifies significant investment opportunities in core components for humanoid robots, including actuators, sensors, and motors, as various manufacturers begin small-scale deliveries and trials [2]. - The low-altitude economy is highlighted as a burgeoning sector with vast market potential, driven by supportive policies and technological advancements in eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) vehicles [3]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is expected to achieve mass production by 2025, with a projected price point below $20,000, opening up substantial market opportunities [2][77]. - Domestic and international manufacturers are beginning to deliver demo units, focusing on hardware and performance, with companies like Unitree and Ubiquity Robotics leading the charge [2][80]. - Key components for humanoid robots include six-dimensional force sensors, with companies like Donghua Testing and Keli Sensor recommended for investment [2][76]. Export Chain - The report forecasts a stable export value for China, with a total export value of 23.04 trillion yuan in the first eleven months of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [12]. - The export chain is viewed as a semi-cyclical and semi-consumption/growth sector, with specific companies showing clear layout opportunities despite trade policy disruptions [12]. Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is positioned as a new growth engine, with various provinces and cities actively developing supportive policies [42]. - The report anticipates a trillion-level market space for the low-altitude economy, with eVTOL vehicles expected to play a crucial role in its development [42]. - Companies such as EHang and WanFeng Aviation are highlighted as key players in the eVTOL market, with significant advancements expected in the coming years [42].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a target price of 10.43 yuan for China Nuclear Power (601985) [1]. Core Viewpoints - China Nuclear Power is positioned as a leading player in the nuclear energy sector, with a robust portfolio of operational and under-construction nuclear power plants, contributing significantly to the country's clean energy transition [5][6][27]. - The company has demonstrated stable profitability in its nuclear operations while experiencing rapid growth in its renewable energy segments, particularly in wind and solar power [42][51]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections indicate a steady increase from 71,285.60 million yuan in 2022 to 94,646.60 million yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.03% [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 9,010.35 million yuan in 2022 to 13,073.49 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 10.14% [9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain stable around 11% over the forecast period [9]. Operational Performance - As of September 30, 2024, the company operates 25 nuclear units with a total installed capacity of 23.75 million kilowatts and has 18 units under construction or approved for construction with a capacity of 20.64 million kilowatts, totaling 44.39 million kilowatts [17]. - The company also has a significant presence in non-nuclear clean energy, with operational capacity of 24.15 million kilowatts, including 7.83 million kilowatts from wind and 16.32 million kilowatts from solar [17]. Revenue Structure - From 2019 to 2023, the average annual compound growth rates for nuclear, wind, and solar revenues were 8.66%, 156.30%, and 123.91%, respectively, indicating a shift towards renewable energy sources [19]. - In 2023, the revenue breakdown was 84.66% from nuclear, 7.85% from solar, and 5.24% from wind, with a noticeable increase in the share of renewable energy in 2024 [19]. Industry Context - The global trend towards nuclear energy is gaining momentum, with over 70 countries committing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, positioning nuclear power as a key player in achieving net-zero targets [28]. - China's "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to increase nuclear power capacity to approximately 70 million kilowatts by 2025, highlighting the government's commitment to nuclear energy development [28][54].

Group 1 - The report indicates that in 2024, global risk assets are expected to outperform, with a bullish trend in both domestic stocks and bonds [3][20] - The report highlights a significant divergence in the performance of global equity markets, with the US stock market leading due to the tech sector and AI trends, while emerging markets show mixed results [11][14] - The domestic bond market is projected to experience a bull run, with long-term interest rates dropping below 2%, driven by a weak economic backdrop and strong institutional demand [25][16] Group 2 - The commodity market is undergoing a bottom adjustment, with gold prices supported by geopolitical risks and central bank demand, while oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to oversupply and slowing demand [6][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy shifts, particularly the "New Nine Articles," which aim to promote high-quality development in the capital market and enhance investor confidence [36][29] - The report outlines three main investment themes for 2025: high dividend strategies in a low-interest environment, recovery in consumer sectors, and focus on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and machinery sectors driven by favorable policies [15][18]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the three major indices experienced fluctuations and adjustments, with the A-share market showing a trend of decline followed by recovery throughout the year [4][13][30] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3351.76, down 1.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 2.40% and 2.93% respectively [4][13][30] - The total market turnover reached 13455.50 billion, an increase of 695.51 billion compared to the previous trading day, with 717 stocks rising and 4676 stocks falling [4][13][30] Group 2 - In terms of market style, the performance ranking of indices was: stable > consumption > cyclical > financial > growth, with large-cap value outperforming mid-cap value and small-cap growth [17][30] - Among the 30 first-level industries, most experienced declines, with textiles and apparel (-0.21%), food and beverage (-0.27%), and coal (-0.28%) showing relatively better performance, while comprehensive finance (-4.64%), computer (-4.12%), and non-bank finance (-3.89%) lagged [17][30] - Concept sectors mostly declined, with significant increases in yesterday's limit-up stocks, while sectors like synchronous reluctance motors, Foxconn, and Huawei Euler saw substantial declines [17][30] Group 3 - On December 31, the net outflow of main funds was 876.80 billion, with large orders seeing a net outflow of 477.90 billion and 398.89 billion respectively, while small orders continued to see a net inflow of 726.39 billion [17][30] - The trading volume of major ETFs such as the Huaxia Shanghai 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF increased significantly compared to the previous trading day, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [24][30] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 64.42 billion Hong Kong dollars, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing inflows of 49.16 billion and 15.26 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively [4][30]

[Table_Summary] 报告要点： RedCap 通过裁剪终端收发带宽、天线数等手段有效降低 5G 终端复 杂度和成本，同时兼顾大容量、低时延、网络切片等 5G 原生能力， 实现 5G 应用成本和性能的最佳平衡，从而推动其在工业等成本敏感 度较高的场景中渗透提速。 物联网模组市场需求受益于 AI 等新场景推动持续修复，国内供应商在 全球份额领先，将充分受益于行业需求的回暖。推荐关注国内领先物 联网模组供应商：移远通信、广和通、美格智能。 [Table_ 过去一年PicQuote 市场行情] -27% -14% 0% 13% 27% 12/29 3/29 6/28 9/27 12/27 技术硬件与设备 沪深300 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 / 16 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | 图 1: 2023 年全球蜂窝物联网连接数（亿） | | | 图 2: 2023 年全球蜂窝物 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry, particularly focusing on the application layer for 2025, as the industry moves into the value realization and implementation phase [42][117] Core Viewpoints - AI Agents are driving the evolution of human-AI interaction, transitioning from Copilot to Agent models, with LLMs acting as the brain of the system, supported by components like Planning, Memory, Tools, and Action [2] - Both domestic and international companies are accelerating the development of AI Agents, reshaping C-end traffic entry points and accelerating B-end industry scenario implementation [3] - The application layer is flourishing due to declining costs, with AI Agents and AI hardware reshaping traffic entry points and accelerating industry scenario implementation [42][117] Model Layer - The competition in the model layer is converging, with OpenAI's o1 model leading a new paradigm in AI model development, focusing on inference-side Scaling Law [46][36] - Overseas, the top five companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, and Meta) have narrowed the gap in model capabilities, while domestic competition remains fragmented among internet giants, startups, and traditional tech companies [46][50][68] Application Layer - AI Agents are upgrading interaction methods, with C-end AI Agents combined with AI hardware reshaping traffic entry points, and B-end AI Agents accelerating industry scenario implementation [42][117] - The software application layer is seeing rapid growth, with AI models being deployed in various industries such as finance, government services, and healthcare, through local, public, private, and hybrid cloud deployments [42][117] - C-end software applications are experiencing strong traffic growth, with ChatGPT's weekly active users surpassing 300 million, and web traffic increasing by 138% year-to-date [42][85] Hardware - AI hardware is accelerating, with small models driving the adoption of AI PCs, AI phones, AI glasses, and AI headphones, with AI glasses being a key hardware carrier for AI deployment [112][138] - Ray-Ban Meta has become the first consumer-grade hit product in the AI hardware space, with global sales reaching 1 million units by May 2024 [138] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights investment opportunities in the application layer for 2025, particularly in AI Agents, AI hardware, and software applications in industries like finance, government services, and healthcare [42][117] - Key companies to watch include Kunlun Wanwei, Visual China, Kaiying Network, Shenzhou Taiyue, Giant Network, Zheshu Culture, Perfect World, G-bits, Shanghai Film, Chinese Online, Focus Technology, and Kuaishou [61][143]

Industry Overview - The global MEMS inertial sensor market is projected to grow from $5.52 billion in 2024 to $15.55 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 23% [2] - China's MEMS inertial sensor market size increased from RMB 11.85 billion in 2020 to RMB 17.88 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 14.7% [2] - The global humanoid robot market is expected to grow from $1.017 billion in 2024 to $15.142 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 56.85% [27] Key Companies and Products - Tesla plans to start small-scale production of Optimus in 2025, with mass production and delivery to other customers expected in 2026 [8] - Figure AI launched its second-generation humanoid robot, Figure 02, in August 2024, with applications in industrial and household settings [8] - Ubtech's Walker S1 uses a four-camera vision system combined with four RGBD sensors, while DAR adopts a comprehensive solution including 3D depth cameras, RGB monocular cameras, TOF cameras, and LiDAR [78] Technology and Components - MEMS sensors are crucial for measuring acceleration, angular velocity, magnetic fields, and light, aiding in robot positioning, navigation, and object recognition [9] - The global MEMS sensor market is expected to grow from $14 billion in 2022 to $20 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 6.1% [83] - CIS (CMOS Image Sensors) are core components of visual sensors, with the global market projected to grow from $21.8 billion in 2023 to $28.6 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 4.6% [80] Market Trends and Growth - The global power device market is expected to grow from $19.8 billion in 2022 to $26.2 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 7.3% [62] - The global IGBT market is projected to grow from $7.1 billion in 2023 to $8.4 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 6.3% [63] - The global MCU market size was approximately $24.25 billion in 2023, with China's MCU market size reaching RMB 42 billion in the same year [72] Applications and Future Prospects - Humanoid robots are expected to drive demand for various components, including CIS, SoC, power semiconductors, memory chips, analog chips, structural parts, micro-transmission systems, and sensors [110] - The global LiDAR market is projected to reach RMB 52.1 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 126% [98] - MEMS pressure sensors are expected to see sales grow from $2.16 billion in 2023 to $2.64 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 5% [100]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [100]. Core Insights - The automotive industry exhibits cyclical, consumption, and technological attributes, with a strong correlation to macroeconomic cycles and significant impacts from industrial policies [6][5]. - The report highlights a potential "policy gap" between the expiration of 2024 policies and the implementation of new policies in 2025, which may affect the performance of cyclical stocks in the first quarter of 2025 [5][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on technological advancements and reform innovations within the automotive sector, particularly in the context of electric and intelligent vehicles [7][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The automotive industry is characterized by its cyclical nature, closely tied to macroeconomic conditions, and is significantly influenced by consumer preferences and technological advancements [6][5]. - Recent trends show a growing emphasis on smart driving technologies and the collaboration among domestic automakers to reduce costs and enhance market competitiveness [7][8]. Market Performance - The automotive sector's weekly performance showed a 0.69% increase, with the passenger vehicle segment leading with a 2.50% rise, while the automotive services segment experienced a decline of 5.82% [17][116]. - The report notes that the automotive industry ranked fourth among major sectors in terms of weekly performance [12][116]. Sales Data - For the period of December 1-22, 2024, retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 817,000 units, marking a 60% year-on-year increase, while wholesale sales totaled 913,000 units, up 56% year-on-year [19][27]. - The passenger vehicle market saw retail sales of 1.692 million units during the same period, reflecting a 25% increase compared to the previous year [27][19]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to pay attention to cyclical stocks during the policy gap period and to consider the investment value of companies involved in smart driving and related technologies [8][5]. - The report suggests monitoring state-owned enterprises' reforms, mergers, and overseas expansion opportunities as potential investment avenues [8][5].