水泥边际持续改善，生育补贴首落地关注建材最受益品种 建筑材料 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 分析师：孙颖 | | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 | | Email：sunying@zts.com.cn | | 分析师：聂磊 | | 执业证书编号：S0740521120003 | | Email：nielei@zts.com.cn | | 分析师：刘铭政 | | 执业证书编号：S0740524070003 | | Email：liumz01@zts.com.cn | | 分析师：王鹏 | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020001 | | Email：wangpeng07@zts.com.cn | | 分析师：张昆 | | 执业证书编号：S0740524050001 | | Email：zhangkun06@zts.com.cn | | 分析师：农誉 | | 执业证书编号：S0740524120001 | Email：nongyu@zts.com.cn | 重点公司基本状况 | 增持 | 评级： | （维持） | 股价 | EPS | PE ...

Email：zhangky04@zts.com.cn 资产配置框架系列报告： 1 重新认识美林时钟 ——大类资产配置框架研究系列 1 2 以普林格时钟为鉴，我们 如何搭建资产配置框架？ ——大类资产配置框架研究系列 2 3 基于普林格时钟框架，中 美行业轮动规律有哪些共同 的特点？ ——大类资产配置框架研究系列 3 近期铜价上涨的逻辑 ——全球资产配置跨资产观察周报（3.10-3.16） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 03 月 16 日 分析师：何佳烨 执业证书编号：S0740523060002 Email：hejy01@zts.com.cn 联系人：张可迎 资产配置周期系列报告： 资产配置深度报告：库存周期与普林 格时钟有什么关系？ ——大类资产配置周期研究系列之 一 资产配置跨资产研究系列报告： 大类资产触底顺序有何规律？-资产 配置跨市场研究系列之一 资产配置深度报告：美国也有"股债 跷跷板"吗？-资产配置跨市场研究系 列之二 报告摘要 本周铜价快速上行，COMEX 铜价周二至周四连续拉升 3 月 14 日，COMEX 铜达 4.86 美元/磅，LME 铜达 9793 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约 ...

超跌确定性资产，依然占优 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 03 月 15 日 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn Email：luhao@zts.com.cn 上市公司数 37 行业总市值(亿元) 17,442.32 行业流通市值(亿元) 17,043.63 超跌确定性资产》2025-03-09 配置机遇》2025-03-02 逐步配置》2025-02-23 动力煤方面，京唐港动力末煤价格周环比下跌 7 元/吨。供应方面，截至 2025 年 3 月 14 日，462 家样本矿山动力煤日均产量 579.50 万吨，周环比上涨 1.65%，同比上涨 0.47%。需求方面，截至 2025 年 3 月 13 日，25 省综合日耗煤 545.40 万吨，相比于 上周减少 10.70 万吨，周环比减少 1.92%，同比下降 0.82%。截至 3 月 14 日，京唐 港动力末煤(Q5500)山西产平仓价 686 元/吨，相比于上周下跌 7 元/吨，周环比下降 1.01%，相比于去年同期下跌 166 元/吨，年同比下降 19.48%。 焦煤及焦炭方面， ...

GDC2025 召开在即，游戏+AI 迎新进展 投资评级说明 | | 评级 | 说明 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票评级 | 买入 | 预期未来 | 个月内相对同期基准指数涨幅在 6~12 15%以上 | | | 增持 | 预期未来 | 6~12 个月内相对同期基准指数涨幅在 5%~15%之间 | | | 持有 | 预期未来 | 6~12 个月内相对同期基准指数涨幅在-10%~+5%之间 | | | 减持 | 预期未来 | 6~12 个月内相对同期基准指数跌幅在 10%以上 | | 行业评级 | 增持 | 预期未来 | 个月内对同期基准指数涨幅在 6~12 10%以上 | | | 中性 | 预期未来 | 6~12 个月内对同期基准指数涨幅在-10%~+10%之间 | | | 减持 | 预期未来 | 个月内对同期基准指数跌幅在 6~12 10%以上 | 传媒 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 评级： 增持（维持） | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

农药涨价有望持续；持续关注龙头白马 基础化工 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 03 月 15 日 | 分析师：孙颖 | 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 | | --- | --- | | Email：sunying@zts.com.cn | 分析师：聂磊 | | 执业证书编号：S0740521120003 | Email：nielei@zts.com.cn | | 分析师：王鹏 | 执业证书编号：S0740523020001 | | Email：wangpeng07@zts.com.cn | 分析师：张昆 | | 执业证书编号：S0740524050001 | Email：zhangkun06@zts.com.cn | | 分析师：刘铭政 | 执业证书编号：S0740524070003 | | Email：liumz01@zts.com.cn | 分析师：农誉 | | 执业证书编号：S0740524120001 | Email：nongyu@zts.com.cn | | 基本状况 | | 上市公司数 425 行业总市值(亿元) 35,060.52 行业流通市值(亿元) 31,323.25 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 10.9% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to decrease by 4.2% [5][9] - The report highlights a structural adjustment in the company's operations, with a focus on improving asset quality and reducing risk appetite [5][32] - The company is expected to benefit from its backing by a comprehensive financial group, enhancing its competitive position in both corporate and retail banking [32] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and net profit for 2024 are forecasted at 146,695 million and 44,508 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -10.9% and -4.2% [3][9] - The net interest income is projected to decline by 20.8% year-on-year, while non-interest income is expected to grow by 14% [5][9] - The company’s net profit margin is anticipated to stabilize, with a slight improvement in the net interest margin expected in the coming years [5][12] Asset and Liability Management - The company continues to adjust its asset structure, with a notable increase in corporate loans and a reduction in retail loans, reflecting a strategic shift in risk management [18][22] - The proportion of demand deposits has increased, contributing to a decrease in funding costs [22][12] - The overall asset quality is improving, with a reduction in the non-performing loan ratio for retail loans [27][28] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income is expected to grow significantly, driven by a 68.8% increase in other non-interest income, while fee income is projected to decline by 18.1% [24][5] - The contribution of non-interest income to total revenue is becoming increasingly important, indicating a shift in the company's revenue generation strategy [24][5] Asset Quality - The report indicates a positive trend in asset quality, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.06% and a decrease in the retail loan non-performing ratio to 1.39% [29][28] - The company has maintained a strong provision coverage ratio of 250.71%, ensuring a buffer against potential loan losses [29][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on its structural adjustments and improve asset quality, with projected price-to-book ratios of 0.51X, 0.47X, and 0.44X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [32][5] - Investors are encouraged to monitor the company's transformation efforts closely, as it aims to evolve into a high-quality bank [32][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company's operating performance meets expectations, and shareholder confidence is reflected in increased holdings [2]. - The acquisition of Shaanxi Coal Power Group is expected to enhance profitability sustainably [4]. - The company has successfully increased coal production to offset the impact of declining coal prices [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 184.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.196 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.97% [4]. - The company’s coal production reached 170 million tons in 2024, up 4.13% year-on-year, and continued to show an upward trend in early 2025 [4]. Profitability Forecast - The report projects operating revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 184.145 billion yuan, 165.491 billion yuan, and 168.457 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 22.196 billion yuan, 18.207 billion yuan, and 19.309 billion yuan for the same years [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.29 yuan, 1.88 yuan, and 1.99 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 8.8X for 2024, 10.8X for 2025, and 10.1X for 2026 [4]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios are expected to be 1.8 for 2024, 1.6 for 2025, and 1.4 for 2026 [4]. Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2022 to 2024, with a projected dividend yield of 6.80% for 2024 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 10%+ in the second half of FY2025, despite challenges in the overall consumption environment [5]. - The company has shown resilience in its operations, with a focus on product innovation and brand upgrades, which are anticipated to drive sales during the off-season [5]. - The company's strategic transformation has solidified its position as an expert in down jackets, with a continued emphasis on enhancing product quality and expanding product categories [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 16,774 million - 2024A: 23,214 million (growth rate: 38%) - 2025E: 25,681 million (growth rate: 11%) - 2026E: 28,930 million (growth rate: 13%) - 2027E: 32,426 million (growth rate: 12%) [2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 2,139 million - 2024A: 3,074 million (growth rate: 44%) - 2025E: 3,521 million (growth rate: 15%) - 2026E: 4,041 million (growth rate: 15%) - 2027E: 4,562 million (growth rate: 13%) [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.18 - 2024A: 0.27 - 2025E: 0.30 - 2026E: 0.35 - 2027E: 0.39 [2]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E: - 2024A: 14.0 - 2025E: 12.3 - 2026E: 10.7 - 2027E: 9.5 - P/B: - 2024A: 3.1 - 2025E: 2.5 - 2026E: 2.0 - 2027E: 1.7 [2][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively integrating new digital technologies with traditional business models to enhance operational efficiency and decision-making accuracy [5]. - The introduction of AI-designed products has significantly reduced the development time for new designs, showcasing the company's commitment to innovation [5]. - The company is focusing on sustainable development across its entire supply chain, achieving a leading ESG rating [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the airline industry [1]. Core Insights - The summer and autumn flight schedule for 2025 indicates a 3.4% decrease in domestic airline passenger flight slots, with domestic, international, and regional slots changing by -3.9%, +6.1%, and -16.8% respectively compared to the 2024 summer and autumn schedule [4]. - The report highlights that the airline industry is expected to see improved profitability due to controlled capacity and potential fare increases, supported by a resilient demand from business travelers and the growth of the silver economy [4]. - Key recommendations include airlines such as Huaxia Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Jixiang Airlines, as well as airports like Shanghai Airport and Baiyun Airport, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in air travel demand [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Targets - Recommended stocks include Jixiang Airlines with projected P/E ratios of 15.33X for 2025 and 11.45X for 2026, benefiting from a dual-brand strategy [10]. - Spring Airlines is highlighted as a leading low-cost carrier with strong profitability and cost control, projected P/E ratios of 16.52X for 2025 and 12.95X for 2026 [10]. - Huaxia Airlines, the only independent regional airline in China, is expected to see performance rebound with a P/E of 10.13X for 2025 and 8.58X for 2026 [10]. - Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines are also recommended, with P/E ratios of 19.60X and 13.59X for 2025, respectively [10]. 2. Airline Data Tracking 2.1 Airlines - Daily average flight operations for major airlines show mixed results, with Southern Airlines operating 2092.40 flights, a decrease of 0.46% week-on-week, while Eastern Airlines increased by 1.40% to 2150.60 flights [4][22]. - Average aircraft utilization rates varied, with Southern Airlines at 7.40 hours per day, a decrease of 2.63% week-on-week [4][30]. 2.2 Airports - Passenger throughput data indicates Shanghai Airport handled 11.21 million passengers, a month-on-month increase of 8.22% [40]. - Daily average flight operations for domestic routes at major airports like Shenzhen Bao'an and Beijing Capital showed increases of 1.75% and 3.82% respectively [51].