长电科技（600584.SH） 半导体 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 29 日 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 分析师：杨旭 执业证书编号：S0740521120001 Email：yangxu01@zts.com.cn 分析师：游凡 执业证书编号：S0740522120002 Email：youfan@zts.com.cn 报告摘要 24Q3 营收创历史新高 【24Q1-Q3】公司实现营收 249.78 亿元，同比+22.26%；归母净利 10.76 亿元，同比 10.55%；扣非归母净利 10.21 亿元，同比+36.73%；毛利率 12.93%，同比-0.94pcts；净 利率 4.31%，同比-0.46pcts。 【24Q3】公司实现营收 94.91 亿元，同比+14.95%，环比+9.8%；归母净利 4.57 亿元， 同比-4.39%，环比-5.57%；扣非归母净利 4.4 亿元，同比+19.5%，环比-7.21%；毛利率 12.23%，同比-2.13pcts，环比-2.05pcts；净利率 4.82%，同比- ...

拓普集团（601689.SH） 汽车零部件 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 29 日 24Q3 业绩符合预期，营收、利润双增长 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady performance with a record high in contract liabilities, indicating strong order backlog and proactive inventory management [1] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 738 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.55%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 309 million yuan, up 14.41% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 54.61%, a decrease of 4.23 percentage points compared to the previous year, and the net profit margin was 39.55%, down 4.44 percentage points [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022A: 672 - 2023A: 917 - 2024E: 1,215 - 2025E: 1,659 - 2026E: 2,080 [1] - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue: - 2022: 31% - 2023: 36% - 2024E: 32% - 2025E: 37% - 2026E: 25% [1] - Net profit (in million yuan): - 2022A: 333 - 2023A: 335 - 2024E: 507 - 2025E: 671 - 2026E: 858 [1] - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit: - 2022: 43% - 2023: 0% - 2024E: 51% - 2025E: 33% - 2026E: 28% [1] Business Expansion and Market Opportunities - The company is expanding its subsidiaries, which has led to an increase in expense ratios, but it is also benefiting from a robust order backlog and proactive production planning [1] - The company is integrating into the aerospace engine collaborative industry system, with plans to develop ceramic matrix composites and aerospace component processing [1] - The company is also exploring civilian markets by applying military technology to civilian products, such as protective materials and acoustic metamaterials [1]

骆驼股份（601311.SH） 电池 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 29 日 24Q3 归母净利润高增长，铅酸电池龙头地位稳固 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth, with a continued upward operational cycle [1] - The report highlights that the company's main business is steadily growing, with all three major product categories accelerating on a quarter-over-quarter basis [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 20.399 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.38% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 4.815 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.23% [1] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 25,610 million yuan - 2023A: 24,559 million yuan - 2024E: 27,059 million yuan (10% growth) - 2025E: 29,769 million yuan (10% growth) - 2026E: 32,431 million yuan (9% growth) [1] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 6,198 million yuan - 2023A: 5,627 million yuan - 2024E: 6,256 million yuan (11% growth) - 2025E: 6,932 million yuan (11% growth) - 2026E: 7,588 million yuan (9% growth) [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 1.34 yuan - 2023A: 1.01 yuan - 2024E: 1.12 yuan - 2025E: 1.25 yuan - 2026E: 1.36 yuan [1] - **Gross Margin**: - The gross margin for the company improved year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material prices [1] - **Market Performance**: - The company’s stock price as of October 28, 2024, was 45.37 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 252.28 billion yuan [1] Segment Performance - **Product Categories**: - Revenue from soy sauce, seasoning sauce, and oyster sauce for Q3 2024 was 30.75 billion yuan, 5.83 billion yuan, and 11.05 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.72%, 10.17%, and 20.34% [1] - **Regional Performance**: - The company achieved revenue growth across various regions, with notable increases in the eastern, southern, central, northern, and western regions [1]

成都先导（688222.SH） 医疗服务 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 28 日 Q3 呈逐步恢复态势，看好 DEL 平台长期发展 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2][6] Core Views - The company achieved a record high revenue in Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 20.28%, reaching 4.64 billion yuan, and a net profit of 0.594 billion yuan, up 89.26% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights the successful progress of multiple product lines, including significant shipments of SoC and advancements in the W series and 8K chips, indicating a strong market position and growth potential [1][3] - The company is expected to leverage its platform advantages to gradually increase market share, with a projected net profit of 0.857 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 72% year-on-year growth [1][3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 5,371 million yuan in 2023, 6,764 million yuan in 2024, 8,349 million yuan in 2025, and 10,102 million yuan in 2026, indicating a compound annual growth rate of approximately 26% from 2023 to 2024 [1][3] - The net profit is forecasted to grow from 498 million yuan in 2023 to 1,397 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong upward trend in profitability [1][3] - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including earnings per share (EPS) projected to rise from 1.19 yuan in 2023 to 3.34 yuan in 2026 [1][3] Product Development and Market Position - The company has successfully launched multiple products, including a new generation of AI-enabled chips and has gained significant market share in domestic operator tenders [1][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's platform strategy, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the semiconductor industry [1][3] - The anticipated growth in AI and smart home applications is expected to drive long-term demand for the company's products, positioning it favorably in the evolving market landscape [1][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changhong Meiling is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the slowdown in the growth of the self-owned brand has impacted profits, with expectations for a recovery in Q4 driven by the old-for-new policy [1] - Q3 revenue reached 7.8 billion yuan, an increase of 23%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 115 million yuan, down 18% [1] - The report highlights that the revenue met market expectations, but the slowdown in self-owned brand growth and rising raw material prices led to profits falling slightly below expectations [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022A: 20,215 - 2023A: 24,248 - 2024E: 29,084 - 2025E: 32,184 - 2026E: 35,199 [1] - Net profit (in million yuan): - 2022A: 245 - 2023A: 741 - 2024E: 748 - 2025E: 856 - 2026E: 990 [1] - Earnings per share (in yuan): - 2022A: 0.24 - 2023A: 0.72 - 2024E: 0.73 - 2025E: 0.83 - 2026E: 0.96 [1] Business Segment Analysis - The report notes that the OEM business (mainly Xiaomi) is experiencing high growth, while the self-owned brand is under pressure [1] - In the air conditioning segment, external sales are expected to drive growth, while the self-owned brand is anticipated to decline [1] - For the refrigerator and washing machine segments, external sales are performing well, but internal brand performance is dragging down overall growth [1] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the old-for-new policy will significantly boost performance in Q4, particularly for the Meiling refrigerator brand [1] - Revenue forecasts have been adjusted upwards, with expectations for continued strong growth in external sales [1] - The report projects net profit for 2024 to be 748 million yuan, with a slight increase in subsequent years [1]

Core Insights - The report discusses the introduction of the "buyout reverse repurchase" tool by the central bank, which aims to manage liquidity and balance the central bank's holdings of government bonds [4][5] - The new tool allows for fixed quantity and interest rate bidding, with eligible securities including government bonds, local government bonds, financial bonds, and corporate credit bonds [4][5] - The "buyout reverse repurchase" is designed to provide medium-term liquidity management, potentially replacing the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The electronic index increased by 2.24%, outperforming the market, with significant gains in the semiconductor sector, particularly in the foundry and simulation IC segments [2] - Notable stock performances included a 45.2% increase for Biyimi and a 37.6% rise for Shanghai Beiling in the simulation IC sector [2] Company Earnings - Tesla reported Q3 2024 revenue of $25.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with a net profit of $2.17 billion, reflecting a 16.9% increase [2] - Western Digital's Q1 FY25 revenue reached $4.095 billion, a 49% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand for eSSD [3] Industry Trends - The report highlights the ongoing trend of AI integration in technology products, with companies like Apple and Tesla leading advancements in AI functionalities [2][3] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a boom, with companies like Hynix and Western Digital reporting significant revenue growth due to high demand for DRAM and NAND products [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI-related companies and the semiconductor sector for potential investment opportunities, emphasizing the importance of mergers and acquisitions in driving growth [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain steady growth despite policy disruptions, with a positive outlook on the empowerment from national reforms [1] - The company reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 12.37 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.71 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.63% [1] - The report highlights the company's ability to counteract external policy impacts through the continuous development of its pathology and coagulation segments, which are expected to drive future growth [1] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 1,511 million yuan - 2023A: 1,742 million yuan - 2024E: 1,745 million yuan - 2025E: 1,852 million yuan - 2026E: 2,132 million yuan - Growth rates: 2023A: 15%, 2024E: 0%, 2025E: 6%, 2026E: 15% [1] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 389 million yuan - 2023A: 524 million yuan - 2024E: 540 million yuan - 2025E: 580 million yuan - 2026E: 680 million yuan - Growth rates: 2023A: 35%, 2024E: 3%, 2025E: 7%, 2026E: 17% [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 0.66 yuan - 2023A: 0.89 yuan - 2024E: 0.92 yuan - 2025E: 0.99 yuan - 2026E: 1.16 yuan [1] - **Cash Flow and Profitability**: - Operating cash flow for 2023A: 585 million yuan, expected to increase to 732 million yuan in 2024E [11] - The company’s overall gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 77.81%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.21 percentage points [1] - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E ratio for 2023A: 21.7, expected to decrease to 15.7 in 2024E and further to 12.4 in 2026E [1] - P/B ratio for 2023A: 2.6, expected to decrease to 2.0 in 2024E and further to 1.6 in 2026E [1]