2025 年 06 月 30 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：66 分（较热） 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 66 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 1、储存主题：据《科创板日报》报道，继韩系两大存储 原厂先后放出 DDR4 停产时间，美光确定已向客户发出信件通 知 DDR4 将停产，预计未来 2~3 个季度陆续停止出货。Trend Force 数据显示，5 月 DDR4 单月涨幅 53%，创 2017 年以来最 大涨幅。相关标的：江波龙（ 301308 ）、兆易创新 （603586） 2、能源金属主题：刚果金公布，2025 年 6 月 21 日起， 战略矿产市场监管局(ARECOMS)董事会采取了重大监管措施， 鉴于市场上库存量持续高企，已决定将临时禁令的期限自本 决定生效之日起再延长三个月，适用于刚果所有源自采矿的 钴 出 口 。 相 关 标 的 ： 华 友 钴 业 （ 603799 ） 、 天 齐 锂 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that global asset risk appetite has collectively increased due to three favorable factors: potential resolution of US-China tariffs, the possibility of a July interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the market pricing out geopolitical risks related to the Middle East [3][28][29] - The report suggests that the current asset pricing logic is influenced by three main factors: geopolitical issues (short-term impact), tariffs (medium-term impact until the end of 2025), and the shorting of the US dollar/US fiscal discipline (long-term impact until the end of 2026 or the end of the current US administration) [3][28][29] - The report notes that the market is currently in a phase where the three pricing logic factors are in a "waiting" stage, with limited upward momentum expected in the absence of significant adjustments in major equity markets [28][29] Group 2 - The report highlights that the US Senate's recent decision to remove a specific clause from a tax reform bill has alleviated some concerns regarding debt sustainability, yet long-term distrust in US fiscal discipline remains strong [29] - The report emphasizes that the current market optimism is not indicative of a new wave of growth but rather a continuation of the upward trend that began in April, following a period of extreme pessimism in global risk appetite [29] - The report advises maintaining a balanced allocation strategy across various asset classes, focusing on both offensive assets (AI, technology hardware, and large financials) and defensive assets (long-term bonds, gold, and low-volatility dividends) [5][28]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][7]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a revenue of 4.443 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.47%, and a net profit of 326 million yuan, up 14.73% [4]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.042 billion yuan, a 2.76% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 10.90% [4]. - The company holds nearly 50% market share in the retail blood glucose product market, with over 22 million users and partnerships with more than 4,000 distributors and nearly 600 chain pharmacies [4]. - The company is actively enhancing its online sales strategy, integrating online and offline operations to strengthen its market position [4]. - The international expansion of the Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) business is accelerating, with a distribution agreement covering over 20 countries signed in November 2024 [5]. - The second-generation CGM product received Class III NMPA registration, showcasing improved accuracy and stability compared to the first generation [6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 4.887 billion, 5.572 billion, and 6.129 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.71, 0.94, and 1.14 yuan [7][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 2024 revenue: 4.443 billion yuan, 9.47% growth [4] - Q1 2025 revenue: 1.042 billion yuan, 2.76% growth; net profit down 10.90% [4] - 2025-2027 revenue projections: 4.887 billion, 5.572 billion, 6.129 billion yuan [7][9] Market Position - Holds nearly 50% market share in blood glucose products [4] - Over 22 million users and partnerships with 4,000+ distributors [4] - Strong online sales integration across 20+ e-commerce platforms [4] Product Development - Second-generation CGM product received Class III NMPA registration [6] - Improved accuracy with MARD value reduced to 8.71% [6] International Expansion - Distribution agreement signed for CGM products in 20+ countries [5] - FDA 510(k) application for CGM product in substantive review phase [5] Earnings Forecast - EPS projections for 2025-2027: 0.71, 0.94, 1.14 yuan [7][9] - PE ratios for 2025-2027: 30.9, 23.4, 19.2 [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1][6]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a steady increase in gross margin. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 843 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.85%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 155 million yuan, down 47.74%. However, in Q1 2025, revenue rose to 265 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.11%, and net profit increased by 44.11% to 72 million yuan [3][6]. - The consumables business is experiencing steady growth, driven by a multi-regional strategic layout. In 2024, consumables revenue reached 284 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.22. The company is actively promoting its consumables in the U.S. market and has established a subsidiary in France to expand its presence in Europe [4][5]. - The company is deepening its focus on the respiratory health sector, with its market position continuously improving. It holds a 12.4% market share in the global home non-invasive ventilator market, ranking second, and a 30.6% share in the domestic market, ranking first among domestic brands. The company has established sales coverage in over 100 countries and regions, obtaining multiple certifications [5][6]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1,013 million yuan, 1,268 million yuan, and 1,610 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.60 yuan, 3.35 yuan, and 4.47 yuan for the same years. The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 30.7, 23.8, and 17.9 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing pressure on its performance, with a 5.79% year-on-year decline in revenue for Q1 2025, amounting to 5.927 billion yuan, and a significant drop in net profit by 69.64% to 84 million yuan [4]. - The printer business is ranked fourth globally in laser printer market share, with significant growth in the output of the BenTu laser printer business, which is leading the industry [5]. - The chip business is innovating continuously, with successful product launches in automotive electronics and industrial applications, indicating strong market recognition [6][7]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 29.215 billion, 32.599 billion, and 36.421 billion yuan respectively, with expected EPS of 0.70, 1.05, and 1.18 yuan [8][10]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 22.89 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 32.6 billion yuan and an average daily trading volume of 412.01 million yuan [2]. Business Segments - The printer segment has seen a decline in revenue, with BenTu's international printer sales dropping by 27.11% year-on-year, while the integrated circuit business also faced a 19.72% revenue decline [4]. - Despite the challenges, the overall output of chips from JiHaiWei reached 125 million units, marking a 9.38% increase year-on-year, with non-consumable chip sales growing by 38.22% [4]. Strategic Developments - The company is expanding its printer business across the entire industry chain and has made significant inroads into the信创 market, achieving a 50% year-on-year increase in output volume for 2024 [5]. - In the automotive sector, JiHaiWei has launched several innovative chips, gaining project approvals from major domestic and international car manufacturers [6]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability, with net profit expected to rise to 994 million yuan in 2025, followed by 1.488 billion yuan in 2026 [10].

Report Investment Rating There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - China remains in the process of marginal balance sheet contraction, with the debt growth rate of the real - sector expected to decline to around 8% by the end of the year, and the government - sector debt growth rate to around 12.5% [2][3] - The short - term liquidity relaxation since early June is difficult to sustain, and the peak of this round of liquidity is expected to occur between June 23 and July 4 [7] - The U.S. economic growth is expected to return to the trend level, and attention should be paid to whether and when the U.S. quarterly real GDP growth rate will fall below the trend level [7] - In the balance sheet contraction cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds tends to favor bonds, and the equity style tends to favor value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets [7] Summary by Directory 1. National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In May 2025, the debt growth rate of the real sector was 8.9%, down from 9.0% previously. It is expected to decline to around 8.8% in June and further to around 8% by the end of the year. The government debt increased by 6703 billion yuan last week, higher than the planned 5754 billion yuan. The government debt growth rate is expected to rise to 15.3% in June and then decline, reaching around 12.5% by the end of the year [2][3] - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the average weekly trading volume of funds decreased, the price increased, and the term spread widened. The one - year Treasury yield closed at 1.35% on the weekend, with an estimated lower limit of about 1.3%. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasuries widened to 30 basis points, and the estimated central value of the term spread was adjusted down to 40 basis points [3] - **Asset Side**: The physical volume data in May was weaker than in April. The annual real economic growth target for 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It is necessary to observe whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][5] 2. Stock - Bond Cost - Performance and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the liquidity was marginally relaxed, the risk appetite rebounded, stocks rose while bonds were flat, and the growth style was dominant. The ten - year Treasury yield rose by 1 basis point to 1.65%, the one - year Treasury yield fell by 1 basis point to 1.35%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield rose by 1 basis point to 1.85% [6] - The broad - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 1.58 pct last week but has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.73 pct since July, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% [6] - In the balance sheet contraction cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds tends to favor bonds, and the equity style tends to favor value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets. This week, the recommended assets are the dividend index (40% position), the SSE 50 index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury ETF (20% position) [7] 3. Industry Recommendation 3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, A - shares rose with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.91%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.69%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, computer, national defense and military industry, non - bank finance, communication, and power equipment had the largest increases, while petroleum and petrochemical, food and beverage, and transportation had the largest declines [28] 3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of June 27, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, computer, power equipment, non - bank finance, and communication, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, building materials, coal, and steel [31] - The industries with the top five increases in crowding this week were non - bank finance, computer, national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and automobile, while those with the top five decreases were pharmaceutical biology, mechanical equipment, media, food and beverage, and petroleum and petrochemical [31] - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was 1.49 trillion yuan, up from 1.22 trillion yuan last week. Non - bank finance, national defense and military industry, bank, electronics, and computer had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume [33] 3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, computer, national defense and military industry, non - bank finance, communication, and power equipment had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while petroleum and petrochemical, food and beverage, transportation, public utilities, and coal had the largest declines [36] - As of June 27, 2025, industries with high full - year earnings forecasts in 2024 and relatively low current valuations compared to history include coal, petroleum and petrochemical, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [37] 3.4 Industry Prosperity - **External Demand**: There were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI fell from 49.8 in May to 49.6, while most of the disclosed PMIs of major economies in May rebounded. The CCFI index rose 2% in the latest week, and the port cargo throughput increased. South Korea's export growth rate dropped to - 1.3% in May and rose to 8.3% in the first 20 days of June. Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 21% in April to 20.7% in May [40] - **Domestic Demand**: The second - hand housing price rose slightly this week, and the quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume increased. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries decreased significantly in April 2025, rebounded slightly in May, and continued to rise in June. The automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, new - house sales were at a historical low, and second - hand house sales were still at a high level relative to historical seasonality [40] 3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the fourth week of June (June 23 - 27), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly returns were 4.9%, 4%, 3.5%, and 2.5% respectively, while the CSI 300 rose 2% [56] - As of June 27, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.5 trillion yuan, slightly down from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [56] 3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the balance sheet contraction cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favors stocks to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. Dividend - type stocks should generally have three characteristics: no balance sheet expansion, good earnings, and survival [8] - The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemical, and transportation [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the automotive sector, specifically recommending Jianghuai Automobile, Changan Automobile, and others [6][9]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce has launched the "2025 Thousand Counties and Ten Thousand Towns New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season" to stimulate consumption in rural areas, with activities running from July to December 2025 [5]. - The initiative includes four key measures to enhance the adoption of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in rural areas, such as implementing vehicle trade-in policies and improving charging infrastructure [5]. - The new vehicle trade-in subsidy policy offers 20,000 yuan for scrapping eligible old vehicles when purchasing new energy passenger cars and 15,000 yuan for scrapping eligible fuel vehicles [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The automotive sector has shown a performance of -2.3% over the last month, -3.7% over the last three months, and a significant increase of 30.0% over the last year, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index which has increased by 1.6% over the last month, 0.2% over the last three months, and 13.3% over the last year [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The continuation and optimization of the 2025 vehicle trade-in subsidy policy are expected to further stimulate NEV consumption. The report suggests focusing on domestic brands such as Jianghuai Automobile, Changan Automobile, and others [6]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for the following years. For instance, Changan Automobile is projected to have an EPS of 1.08 in 2024, increasing to 1.58 by 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 11.76 in 2024 to 8.04 in 2026 [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [7][8]. Core Insights - The company has made significant progress in clinical trials for its product NL003, which is now entering the commercialization phase [5]. - The company reported a revenue of 72.11 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -45.18 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the same period in 2023 [4]. - The company has a comprehensive pipeline of ophthalmic drugs, with eight registered eye drop products targeting various conditions such as dry eye, allergies, and bacterial infections [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 88 million yuan, 185 million yuan, and 371 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 21.7%, 110.8%, and 100.5% [10]. - The report forecasts a gradual improvement in net profit, with expected figures of -51 million yuan in 2025, -2 million yuan in 2026, and a positive 83 million yuan in 2027 [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -0.19 yuan in 2025, -0.01 yuan in 2026, and 0.30 yuan in 2027, indicating a turnaround in profitability [10]. Clinical and Production Developments - The NL003 project has completed the unblinding of its Phase III clinical trials for both ulcer and resting pain groups, with results showing significant efficacy compared to the placebo group [5]. - The company is advancing its biopharmaceutical production facility in Beijing, which is expected to enhance its production capacity for innovative drugs [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the semiconductor and electronic sectors, including 泰嘉股份 (Tai Jia Co.), 意华股份 (Yi Hua Co.), and 联创光电 (Lian Chuang Optoelectronics) [9][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant investments in the controllable nuclear fusion sector, with 中油资本 (China Oil Capital) planning to invest 655 million yuan, which is expected to accelerate the industry's development [5][15]. - 华为 (Huawei) has launched the Pangu Model 5.5, a large-scale model with 718 billion parameters, showcasing China's capability in training world-class models using domestic computing power [6][16]. - The electronic industry has shown a mixed performance, with a 4.61% increase in the week of June 23-27, ranking it seventh among major sectors [25][30]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - 中油资本's investment in controllable nuclear fusion totals 32.75 billion yuan, aimed at strategic industry transformation [5][15]. - 华为's Pangu Model 5.5 represents a significant advancement in AI capabilities, indicating a strong domestic technology base [6][16]. Market Performance - The electronic sector's performance was highlighted with a 4.61% increase, with integrated circuit packaging and testing showing the highest growth at 8.32% [25][30]. - The report notes that the electronic industry's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 52.20, indicating high valuation compared to other sectors [25][30]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - Key companies recommended for investment include 兴森科技 (Xing Sen Technology), 泰嘉股份 (Tai Jia Co.), and 联创光电 (Lian Chuang Optoelectronics), with various earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 [9][17]. - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts and valuations for several companies, indicating a bullish outlook for the semiconductor and electronic sectors [36].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The actual controller of the company is set to change, which is expected to facilitate entry into the 3D printing sector [4][5]. - The new actual controller, Jiang Zexing, is the chairman of Jinshi 3D, a leading provider of comprehensive additive manufacturing solutions in China, indicating potential growth opportunities in this field [5][6]. - The company aims to leverage the new controller's resources to optimize its product structure and enhance market share in the rapidly growing additive manufacturing industry [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is an artificial intelligence and big data application solution provider, focusing on digital solutions for various industries, including commercial and public services [7]. - Revenue has grown from 219 million yuan in 2020 to 363 million yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 13.53% [7]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 9 million yuan in 2025, 27 million yuan in 2026, and 43 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.08, 0.23, and 0.36 yuan [8][10]. - The report forecasts a revenue growth rate of 16.1% in 2025, 15.9% in 2026, and 16.0% in 2027 [10]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the growth of the 3D printing market, which has seen a compound annual growth rate exceeding 50% in recent years [5][6]. - The company plans to gradually develop additive manufacturing-related businesses to enhance its competitive edge [6].