Group 1: Company Overview - The core online travel agency (OTA) maintains a steady growth momentum, with a notable performance in international business [4] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.5 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.06 billion yuan, up 17% year-over-year [3][4] - The company's hotel management business is expanding, with nearly 3,000 hotels currently operating and an additional 1,500 hotels in preparation [4] Group 2: Business Segments Performance - The transportation ticketing segment generated revenue of 2.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 9% year-over-year increase, driven by insights into user demand and a rich array of value-added products [4] - The accommodation booking segment saw revenue of 1.58 billion yuan, up 15% year-over-year, benefiting from an increase in high-quality hotel room nights and brand recognition in lower-tier cities [4] - The vacation business faced short-term revenue pressure due to safety issues in Southeast Asia, with Q3 2025 revenue declining by 8% to 900 million yuan [4] Group 3: User Metrics - The average monthly paying user count reached 47.7 million in Q3 2025, a 2.8% year-over-year increase, with a total of 253 million annual paying users, up 8.8% year-over-year [5] - Over 87% of registered users reside in non-first-tier cities, with more than 70% of new paying users in Q3 2025 coming from these areas, reinforcing the platform's position in the mass market [5] Group 4: Financial Projections and Investment Rating - The company is positioned as a leading OTA platform in lower-tier markets, benefiting from the release of domestic travel demand and international business expansion [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion, 21.9 billion, and 24.5 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 2.9 billion, 3.2 billion, and 3.7 billion yuan [5] - The target market capitalization for 2026 is set at 60.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 28 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [5] Group 5: Alibaba Overview - Alibaba's revenue for FY2026 Q2 reached 247.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 5% [14] - The traditional e-commerce segment showed steady growth, with revenue increasing by 16% to 132.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025 [15] - The cloud business experienced a 34% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching 39.8 billion yuan, with AI-related revenue showing triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [17] Group 6: Financial Outlook for Alibaba - Revenue forecasts for FY2026-2028 are set at 1,041.8 billion, 1,160.5 billion, and 1,282.1 billion yuan, with net profits projected at 125.1 billion, 149.3 billion, and 184.5 billion yuan [18] - The target market capitalization for Alibaba in FY2027 is estimated at 3,345.5 billion yuan, with a target price of 175 yuan [18]

Core Insights - The report establishes a systematic investment framework for convertible bonds focusing on "when to buy" and "what to buy," addressing market volatility and optimizing risk-return ratios [4] - The framework aims to provide investors with a replicable and trackable path for convertible bond allocation, combining the defensive attributes of bonds with the growth potential of stocks [4] Timing Strategies - Two effective timing strategies are proposed: - Equity-Debt Spread Timing: This strategy quantifies the relationship between the return of the CSI 500 index and the yield of 10-year government bonds, providing objective thresholds for position adjustments. The backtest accuracy rate is 68.64%, making it suitable for capturing equity characteristics [5] - Sentiment Index Driven Timing: This strategy uses implied volatility from the options market as a sentiment gauge, achieving a timing success rate of 63.53% when combined with the Z-Score standardization method and 74.39% with the IV change threshold method [5] Selection Strategies - Five mainstream selection strategies are evaluated and improved to enhance portfolio return-risk ratios: - Dual Low Strategy: Balances stability and elasticity, achieving a cumulative return of 95.25% from 2019 to October 2025 [6] - Factor Triple Low Strategy: Introduces fundamental factors like stock Alpha to optimize selection criteria, yielding a cumulative return of 192.54% and an annualized return of 47.98% [6] - Momentum + Dual Low Strategy: Captures market sentiment's upward inertia, with a cumulative return of 65.53% and an annualized return of 15.89% [8] - Barbell Strategy: Combines equity and debt-oriented convertible bonds to balance offense and defense in varying market conditions [8] - High Price Low Premium Strategy: Demonstrates effectiveness in trending markets with a cumulative return of 205.53% and an annualized return of 36.63% [8] Convertible Bond Recommendations - The report provides a list of convertible bonds to focus on, categorized by various strategies, including balanced, equity-oriented, and those meeting the improved dual low criteria [9] Strategy Applicability and Market Conditions - The report details the performance characteristics and applicable market environments for each strategy, indicating that the equity-debt spread timing strategy may face significant drawdowns in extreme market volatility, while the dual low strategy shows stable performance across different equity market conditions [10] Future Allocation Outlook - Looking ahead, investors are advised to flexibly allocate between defensive convertible bonds and high-dividend growth-oriented convertible bonds to capture structural investment opportunities while controlling drawdowns [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (9988.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong growth in cloud business and steady progress in domestic e-commerce commercialization, while also noting ongoing investments in instant retail [9] - The company reported a revenue of 247.8 billion yuan for FY2026Q2, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.1% [10][11] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 173 billion yuan, down 64% year-over-year [10][11] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - For FY2026Q2, Alibaba achieved a revenue of 247.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 206 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year decline of 53% [10][11] - The company repurchased 17 million shares for a total of 253 million USD, with a remaining buyback capacity of 19.1 billion USD [10] Business Segments - **E-commerce**: The Chinese e-commerce group reported a revenue of 132.6 billion yuan, up 16% year-over-year, driven by a 10% increase in customer management revenue [12][32] - **Cloud Business**: The cloud segment saw a revenue increase of 34% to 39.8 billion yuan, with external cloud revenue growing by 29% [36] - **International Digital Commerce**: This segment achieved a revenue of 34.8 billion yuan, up 10% year-over-year, primarily due to improved operational efficiency [35] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY2026-2028 are set at 1,041.8 billion yuan, 1,160.5 billion yuan, and 1,282.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 125.1 billion yuan, 149.3 billion yuan, and 184.5 billion yuan [9][37] - The target market capitalization for FY2027 is estimated at 3,345.5 billion yuan, with a target price of 175 yuan per share [9][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.5 billion RMB for Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.4%. The adjusted net profit reached 1.06 billion RMB, up 17% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-over-year [4][6]. Financial Performance - The core online travel platform achieved a revenue of 4.6 billion RMB in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 15%, with an operating profit margin of 31.2% [6]. - Revenue from transportation ticketing was 2.2 billion RMB, up 9% year-over-year, driven by user demand insights and enriched value-added services [6]. - Accommodation bookings generated 1.58 billion RMB, also up 15% year-over-year, supported by an increase in high-quality hotel room nights and brand recognition in lower-tier cities [6]. - The vacation business faced a revenue decline of 8% year-over-year, totaling 900 million RMB, primarily due to security issues in Southeast Asia [6]. - The average monthly paying user count reached 47.7 million, a 2.8% increase year-over-year, with a total of 253 million annual paying users, up 8.8% year-over-year [6]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to benefit from the release of domestic travel demand, increased penetration in lower-tier markets, and international business expansion. Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion RMB, 21.9 billion RMB, and 24.5 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.9 billion RMB, 3.2 billion RMB, and 3.7 billion RMB [6][8]. - The target market capitalization for 2026 is set at 60.2 billion RMB, with a target price of 28 HKD per share, maintaining the "Buy" rating [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights a shift in investment style, with the banking sector receiving increased capital inflows, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][3] - In the equity market, technology sector ETFs saw a significant net inflow of 755 billion yuan, with semiconductor, battery, and robotics themes being particularly favored [3] - The banking ETF recorded a net inflow of 58 billion yuan in October, marking a new monthly high for 2025, following a net inflow of 32 billion yuan in September [3] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing growth in bond ETFs, particularly in sci-tech bonds, corporate bonds, and government bonds, indicating strong investor interest [4] - The report notes a substantial increase in the buying of long-term government bonds by major banks, while insurance companies are also increasing their allocation to long-term bonds [4] - In the commodity market, there has been a shift in domestic investor preferences from gold stock ETFs to gold ETFs, with a notable net inflow of 337.82 billion yuan in October [4]

Group 1: Company Performance - The company, 万物新生 (RERE), reported Q3 2025 revenue of 5.149 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, reaching the high end of previous guidance [3][4] - The breakdown of revenue shows that 1P product revenue was 4.726 billion RMB, up 28.7% year-on-year, driven by increased sales of second-hand consumer electronics [4] - The company expects Q4 2025 total revenue to be between 6.08 billion and 6.18 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.4% to 27.4% [3] Group 2: Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 20.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with 1P business gross margin at 13.4%, up 1.7 percentage points [5] - Non-GAAP operating profit was 140 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 34.9%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 2.7% [5] - GAAP net profit reached 91 million RMB, up 407.3% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was 110 million RMB, a 22.3% increase [5] Group 3: Business Expansion and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its offline store presence, with a total of 2,195 stores by the end of Q3 2025, an increase of 558 stores year-on-year [4] - The 3P service revenue was 423 million RMB, up 11.6% year-on-year, driven by growth in multi-category recycling services [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of second-hand product acquisition channels and multi-category business growth, maintaining a "buy" rating [6] Group 4: Industry Insights - The bond market sentiment is currently divided, with seller sentiment rising and buyer sentiment declining, indicating a cautious market environment [7][9] - The macro liquidity remains loose, with significant improvements in equity fund issuance, while leverage funds have seen a slowdown [10] - The automotive sector underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with significant declines in stock prices for major players during the recent week [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved Q3 revenue of 5.149 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, reaching the high end of previous guidance [6] - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q3 was 140 million RMB, up 34.9% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was 110 million RMB, reflecting a 22.3% increase [6] - The company expects Q4 total revenue to be between 6.08 billion and 6.18 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.4% to 27.4% [6] Revenue Performance - Q3 revenue breakdown shows 1P product revenue at 4.726 billion RMB, up 28.7% year-on-year, driven by increased sales of second-hand consumer electronics [8] - 3P service revenue reached 423 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, primarily from multi-category recycling services [8] - The number of traded devices in Q3 was 10.9 million, compared to 9.1 million in the same period last year [8] Business Structure and Profitability - The company's gross margin for Q3 was 20.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with 1P business gross margin at 13.4%, up 1.7 percentage points [8] - Operating expenses showed improvement, with fulfillment expenses at 437 million RMB and a fulfillment expense ratio of 8.5%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [8] - GAAP operating profit was 121 million RMB, a significant increase of 385.1% year-on-year, with a GAAP operating margin of 2.3% [8] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 20.96 billion, 26.35 billion, and 32.38 billion RMB, with growth rates of 28%, 26%, and 23% respectively [10] - Non-GAAP net profit projections for the same period are 473 million, 664 million, and 900 million RMB, with growth rates of 51%, 40%, and 35% respectively [10] - The report highlights the company's potential for growth through expanded channels for second-hand goods and multi-category business expansion [10]

Report Overview - The report is a bond research weekly report dated November 24, 2025, analyzing the sentiment changes of bond market sellers and buyers in the latest week [1][5]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From November 18 - 24, the bond market seller sentiment rose while the buyer sentiment declined again, with the two diverging, and the seller view divergence index also rose to a relatively high level. Despite the optimistic factors brought by the calendar effect, market sentiment remains contradictory and institutional caution persists [5]. Section Summaries 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 18 - 24, the tracked unweighted index was 0.42, up 0.04 from November 11 - 17, and the proportion of market - bullish views increased. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - to - bullish views: 2 are bullish, 7 are moderately bullish, 14 are neutral, and 1 is moderately bearish. 8% of institutions are bullish, citing factors such as economic fundamentals pressure, monetary policy easing expectations, seasonal patterns, and institutional scramble for allocation. 29% are moderately bullish, due to the deepening asset - shortage pattern, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading, potential decline in risk appetite, and the year - end "calendar effect". 58% are neutral, as there is a tug - of - war between bullish and bearish factors, bond yields are in a range - bound oscillation, the market is in a "policy vacuum period", and the 10 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate within the regulatory - approved range. 4% are moderately bearish, believing that the main logic is the lack of incremental funds in the bond market, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect may strengthen, and the bond market's easing environment is hard to sustain [6][13]. 1.2 Buyer Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 18 - 24, the tracked unweighted sentiment index was - 0.08, down from November 11 - 17. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - to - bearish views: 2 are moderately bullish, 18 are neutral, and 4 are bearish. 8% of institutions are moderately bullish, based on monetary policy easing expectations, recovery in allocation demand, and potential decline in risk appetite. 75% are neutral, due to policy uncertainty, the asset - shortage pattern, a capped - and - floored market, lack of a one - sided main line, and the market entering a wait - and - see period. 17% are bearish, believing that policies fall short of expectations, structural interest rate cuts hit liquidity expectations, and policy guidance may divert funds to the equity market [7][14].

| 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 赵阳 S0350525100003 | | | | zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 郭可凡 S0350124070038 | | | | guokf@ghzq.com.cn | 2025 年 11 月 24 日 策略周报 [Table_Title] 基金发行端回暖，杠杆资金有所放缓 ——流动性周报 11 月第 1 期 最近一年走势 投资要点: 相关报告 《存款搬家如何演绎——牛市资金面专题研究 (一)*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》——2025-08-10 ETF 系列报告（一）*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》—— 2025-05-30 《业绩基准如何选择*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》—— 2025-05-29 《如何看待近期涨价领域拥挤度偏高的情况*赵 阳》——2025-11-23 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 1. 宏观流动性保持宽松，央行通过公开市场操作开展 7 天逆回购 净投放 5540 亿元，连续两周实现净投放。同时， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive sector [1] Core Views - The automotive industry is experiencing a decline in performance due to high base effects, with expectations of a decrease in passenger vehicle year-on-year growth by the end of 2025. However, the high-end passenger vehicle market is expected to perform relatively better in 2026 due to policy adjustments [17] - The report highlights the rapid iteration capabilities of new models such as the Xiangjie S9 and Xiaopeng X9, indicating a trend towards advanced driving technologies becoming more accessible [14][15] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the commercial vehicle sector, particularly heavy trucks, with a recovery in domestic demand anticipated in 2025 [17] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The automotive sector has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 4.9% from November 17 to November 21, 2025 [5][18] - The Guangzhou Auto Show showcased 93 new car launches, with 58% being new energy vehicles, indicating a strong market presence for innovative technologies [13] Key Developments - The launch of the Xiangjie S9 and Xiaopeng X9 models reflects the industry's focus on high-end features and rapid product updates, with prices ranging from 309,800 to 369,800 yuan for the S9 [14] - Huawei's conference highlighted advancements in L3 autonomous driving technology, predicting a penetration rate of 30% by 2025 and over 50% by 2027 [15][16] Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, companies with quality offerings above 300,000 yuan are expected to benefit, with recommendations including Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Xiaopeng, Great Wall, SAIC, Li Auto, Seres, and BYD [17] - In the parts sector, companies benefiting from the penetration of high-level intelligence into lower-priced models are recommended, including Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Kobot [17] - In the commercial vehicle segment, companies like Weichai Power, Foton, and China National Heavy Duty Truck are recommended due to expected recovery in heavy truck demand [17]