2025 年 05 月 26 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 liujm@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 秦一方 S0350523120001 qinyf@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 黄诗汶 S0350124040004 huangsw01@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 郝天宇 S0350124060016 haoty@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 新消费受关注，保健品、黄酒热度高 ——食品饮料行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 食品饮料 | -0.1% | 4.5% | -7.5% | | 沪深 300 | 1.9% | -2.5% | 7.2% | 相关报告 《食品饮料行业 2024 年报及 2025Q1 总结：白酒 降速纾压，休闲食品看点仍足（推荐）*食品饮料* 刘洁铭，秦一方》——2025-05-13 《食品饮料行业周报：关税变局下内需走强，板块 韧性凸 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, suggesting a "Buy" rating for specific stocks and highlighting the overall investment value of the North Exchange market in 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a slight decline of 3.68% as of May 23, 2025, closing at 1370.04 points, while the average market capitalization of the 266 A-share constituent stocks is 2.936 billion [8][19]. - The report identifies key sectors with significant performance, including Environmental Protection (up 8.16%), Beauty Care (up 2.62%), and Construction Materials (up 0.97%), while sectors like Transportation and Public Utilities faced declines of -20.33% and -11.41% respectively [19][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with stable growth and reasonable valuations, recommending stocks such as Tongli Co., Ltd. and Wuxin Tunnel Equipment for their low valuations and potential benefits from infrastructure investments [2][3]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of May 23, 2025, the North Exchange 50 Index showed a decline of 3.68%, while the average market capitalization of constituent stocks was 2.936 billion [8][19]. - The daily average trading volume for the North Exchange 50 was 35.949 billion, reflecting a 3.65% increase from the previous week [22]. Stock Performance - In the week from May 19 to May 23, 2025, 41 stocks rose, while 225 fell, indicating a 15.41% increase in the number of rising stocks, a decrease of 51.88% week-on-week [13][19]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Recommended stocks include: - Tongli Co., Ltd. (stock code: 834599.BJ) with an EPS forecast of 1.99 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 10.66, rated as "Buy" [3]. - Wuxin Tunnel Equipment (stock code: 835174.BJ) with an EPS forecast of 1.64 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 25.16, also rated as "Buy" [3]. - Other companies such as Kaide Quartz and Hualing Co., Ltd. are rated as "Hold" with potential for growth [3]. New Stock Updates - No new stocks were listed this week, but Yuli Intelligent submitted for registration, with upcoming meetings for Shichang Co. and Zhigao Machinery [25][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][68]. Core Views - The report highlights the booming pet economy, with domestic brands rapidly rising. It emphasizes the continuous improvement in industry profitability and recommends several companies in the pet food and medical sectors [5][61]. Summary by Sections Swine Industry - Swine prices are expected to fluctuate, with a forecast of weak performance in 2025 due to increased supply and weak demand. The average price of live pigs is currently 14.51 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.26 yuan/kg. The report recommends companies such as Wen's Food Group, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [15][16]. Poultry Industry - The report anticipates a price recovery for parent stock in Q2 2025, driven by a shortage of quality breeding stock due to overseas avian influenza impacts. It recommends companies like San Nong Development and Yisheng Livestock, while suggesting attention to He Feng and Minhe shares [26][28]. Animal Health Industry - The animal health sector is experiencing cyclical weakening, but there are investment opportunities in innovative companies and the pet medical sector. The report highlights positive revenue growth for companies like Reap Bio and Kexin Bio in Q1 2025 [7][36]. Planting Industry - In April 2025, grain imports fell by 51.5% year-on-year, with significant declines in corn and wheat imports. The report suggests focusing on companies with strong transgenic seed research and development capabilities, such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech [45][49]. Feed Industry - Feed prices are on the rise, with a notable increase in the production of industrial feed. The report recommends Haida Group and suggests attention to He Feng shares as the industry concentration is expected to continue increasing [51][52]. Pet Industry - The pet economy is thriving, with the market size reaching 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 7.5%. The report recommends companies in the pet food sector like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong shares, as well as in the pet medical sector like Reap Bio [61][62].

2025 年 05 月 26 日 公司研究 | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 | | | | liujm@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 秦一方 S0350523120001 | | | | qinyf@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 黄诗汶 S0350124040004 | | | | huangsw01@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 零食量贩龙头，引领万亿元赛道效率变革 ——鸣鸣很忙（02143）招股说明书梳理 最近一年走势 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 鸣鸣很忙：零食量贩行业领军者。2017 年晏周先生于湖南省长沙开 设首家"零食很忙"；2019 年赵定先生于江西省宜春开设首家"赵 一鸣零食"；2023 年 11 月，"零食很忙"完成对赵一鸣的收购事 项完成两大品牌融合。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，公司门店网络包 括 14,394 家门店，覆盖中国 28 个省份和所有线级城市，且其中约 58%的门店位于 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a high-end gold jewelry brand that combines luxury attributes with investment value, targeting high-net-worth individuals. The contribution of customers spending over 1 million yuan annually has increased from 8.5% in 2021 to 15.9% in 2023 [9][35]. - The company's revenue and profit are expected to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 185.7 billion yuan in 2025, 272.9 billion yuan in 2026, and 366.9 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 118%, 47%, and 34% respectively [19]. - The company benefits from a unique craftsmanship that creates a significant premium on its products, with some items showing a price premium of 38% to 114% compared to competitors [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Is the company a luxury brand? - The company successfully blends luxury and investment attributes, appealing to high-net-worth customers through unique cultural experiences and high-quality craftsmanship [9][22]. 2. How does gold price affect it? - The company benefits from a fixed-price model that allows it to capitalize on rising gold prices, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% in gold prices from 2020 to 2024, while its core products have seen lower price increases, enhancing perceived value [10][43]. 3. Is discounting a problem? - The company faces pricing risks from secondary market discounts, with recovery rates of 70%-80% for its products. However, it maintains brand premium through limited supply and complex craftsmanship [11][66]. 4. What is the store expansion potential? - The company has significant room for growth in both domestic and international markets, with only 37 stores in China compared to an average of 49 for international luxury brands. There are also opportunities in high-end shopping malls and overseas markets like Singapore [12][67]. 5. Who are the competitors? - The competitive landscape includes high-end custom brands and mass-market players, with varying pricing strategies and market shares [13]. 6. What is the craftsmanship premium? - The company's products exhibit a notable craftsmanship premium, with some items achieving a price premium of up to 114% compared to competitors [14]. 7. Are there barriers to craftsmanship? - The company utilizes traditional techniques and complex processes that create significant barriers to entry, making it difficult for competitors to replicate its products [15]. 8. What is the profit margin trend? - The company has improved its operational efficiency, leading to a projected net profit margin of 17% in 2024, driven by reduced customer acquisition costs and enhanced store performance [17]. 9. What is the ceiling for single-store operations? - The average revenue per store is expected to increase significantly, with projections of 4 billion yuan in 2025 and 6 billion yuan by 2027, driven by store expansion and product pricing strategies [18]. 10. How to value the company? - The company is valued based on a premium compared to international luxury brands, with a target market capitalization of 160.8 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting its growth potential and unique market positioning [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement in profit margins, with a focus on international expansion performance [3][6]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.4 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 13%, and an adjusted net profit of 790 million yuan, up 41% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 18%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-over-year [5][6]. Financial Performance - The core online travel platform generated revenue of 3.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 18%, with an operating profit margin of 29.2%, up 6.6 percentage points year-over-year [6]. - Revenue from transportation ticketing reached 2 billion yuan, up 15% year-over-year, benefiting from increased demand and enhanced value-added services [6]. - Accommodation bookings generated 1.2 billion yuan in revenue, a 23% year-over-year increase, with international hotel night volume growing over 50% [6]. - The vacation business faced short-term revenue pressure, generating 590 million yuan, down 11.8% year-over-year, due to safety issues in Southeast Asia [6]. User Metrics - The average monthly paying user count reached 46.5 million, a 9.2% year-over-year increase, with annual paying users totaling 247 million, up 7.8% year-over-year [6]. - Over 87% of registered users reside in non-first-tier cities in China, with 68% of new paying users from these areas, reinforcing the platform's position in the mass market [6]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion, 22.1 billion, and 24.9 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 2.7 billion, 3.0 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan [8]. - The target market capitalization for 2025 is set at 51.4 billion yuan, with a target price of 24 HKD per share [8].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report focuses on Zhongke Shuguang (603019), a leading enterprise in China's core information infrastructure, primarily engaged in high-end computing, storage, security, and data center products [3][4] - The company is a top incubation platform of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, with investments in several high-quality assets covering the entire computing industry chain from chips to cloud services [4][5] - The company's net profit has shown stable long-term growth, with a revenue of 13.148 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%, while net profit reached 1.911 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [4] Group 2: Business Strategy and Growth - Zhongke Shuguang has focused on artificial intelligence infrastructure, achieving significant technological breakthroughs in smart computing services, forming a complete product capability system [5][6] - The company has a comprehensive layout in the autonomous controllable computing industry chain, with subsidiaries like Shuguang Data Creation and Haiguang Information leading in their respective fields [5][6] - The report projects that the company will achieve revenues of 15.663 billion, 19.837 billion, and 25.417 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.846 billion, 3.803 billion, and 5.251 billion yuan respectively [9] Group 3: Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry is facing uncertainties due to tariff disturbances, with visibility for the second half of 2025 being low [10] - The storage market is showing positive trends in Q2 2025, with significant price increases for DDR4 memory [13] - The AI hardware demand is expected to remain strong, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in the AI hardware sector [14] Group 4: Digital Media and Gaming - Bilibili (09626) reported a 24% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, driven by strong user engagement and growth in mobile gaming [15][16] - The company’s mobile game revenue increased by 76% year-on-year, highlighting the success of its exclusive game titles [17] - The advertising revenue also grew by 20% year-on-year, reflecting the platform's increasing influence and user engagement [19] Group 5: Travel and Tourism - Trip.com Group (09961) reported a 16% year-on-year increase in net operating revenue for Q1 2025, driven by strong domestic travel demand and recovery in international business [27][28] - The company is seeing significant growth in outbound travel bookings, exceeding pre-pandemic levels by over 20% [29] - The report forecasts net operating revenues of 61.6 billion, 69.4 billion, and 79.4 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 16.5 billion, 20.2 billion, and 22.5 billion yuan respectively [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum industry is expected to benefit from favorable domestic policies and supply disruptions in Guinea affecting bauxite supply, leading to potential price increases and inventory reductions [6][9] - The report highlights that the aluminum industry is likely to experience a sustained "de-inventory + price increase" trend, supported by improving export conditions and limited supply growth [9] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of May 23, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2466.0 per ton, while the Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥20155.0 per ton [19] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥20400.0 per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of ¥170.0 [19] 2. Production - In April 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 360.6 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.8 million tons but a year-on-year increase of 2.5 million tons [51] - The production of alumina in April 2025 was 708.4 million tons, down 46.6 million tons month-on-month but up 30.2 million tons year-on-year [51] 3. Inventory - As of May 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 557,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 24,000 tons [6] - The inventory of aluminum rods was 130,800 tons, down 740 tons week-on-week, remaining at a three-year low [6] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include Shenhuo Co., China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector is a crucial direction for the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid growth in downstream demand. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to accelerate their long-term growth. The sector is considered a foundational industry, supporting various fields such as electronic information, new energy, biotechnology, and environmental protection [5][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Electronic Information Sector - Focus on semiconductor materials, display materials, and 5G materials. The global semiconductor manufacturing industry showed typical seasonal patterns at the beginning of 2025, with a 16% quarter-on-quarter decline in electronic product sales, while integrated circuit (IC) sales saw a 23% year-on-year increase, indicating sustained investment in AI and high-performance computing infrastructure [6][7][26]. 2. Aerospace Sector - Emphasis on PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fiber. Recent successful launches of satellites by China's aerospace industry highlight the sector's growth and capabilities [10][11]. 3. New Energy Sector - Key areas include photovoltaics, lithium-ion batteries, proton exchange membranes, and hydrogen storage materials. The active vehicle count in China's new energy vehicle market has surpassed 30 million, leading globally [13][14]. 4. Biotechnology Sector - Focus on synthetic biology and scientific services. Initiatives in Shanghai aim to enhance the quality of technology services and promote innovation in various fields, including robotics and satellite internet [16][17]. 5. Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - Attention on adsorbent resins, membrane materials, and biodegradable plastics. Recent measures support small and micro enterprises in financing, promoting growth in innovative small businesses [18][19]. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report lists several key companies with their stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026, along with their respective investment ratings [20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025, driven by factors such as inventory depletion, profit bottoming out, and supportive fiscal policies in China and the US [8][9][30] - Key opportunities include low-cost expansion, improving industry conditions, new materials, and high dividend yields from state-owned enterprises [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Key Company Tracking - Focus on companies like Zhuhai Holdings, Baotou Steel, and others for potential investment opportunities [30] 2. Market Observation - The chemical industry is experiencing a tightening supply-demand situation, particularly in chromium salts and phosphate rock, which are expected to see price increases due to rising demand from AI data centers and lithium iron phosphate batteries [6][7] 3. Data Tracking - The Guohai Chemical Prosperity Index was reported at 92.90 as of May 22, 2025, indicating a slight decrease from the previous week [5] 4. Weekly Focus on Individual Stocks - Companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Linglong Tire are highlighted for their stable performance and potential for growth [14][15] 5. Investment Recommendations - Emphasis on sectors like chromium salts and phosphate rock, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their growth potential and market conditions [6][10][30]