Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yangnong Chemical (600486) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3, demonstrating resilience at the bottom of the cycle, with a focus on the ramp-up of the Huludao project [2][10] - The company is expected to see significant growth driven by the Huludao project, with projected revenues of 11.4 billion, 13.7 billion, and 15.8 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, and net profits of 1.269 billion, 1.682 billion, and 1.969 billion yuan for the same years [10][21] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 2.317 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 263 million yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year [2][3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 23.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.59 percentage points year-on-year to 11.3% [2][3] - The original drug segment generated revenue of 1.497 billion yuan in Q3, a 4% increase year-on-year, while the formulation segment saw a revenue decline of 5% year-on-year [3][10] Project Development - The Huludao project is progressing well, with the first phase of construction completed and trial production of several products underway [8][10] - The project is expected to enhance the company's production capacity and balance its operations geographically [8][10] Market Conditions - The report notes that pesticide prices have fallen to historical lows, indicating a potential for recovery in industry demand [4][5] - The company’s stock has shown a performance of -1.3% over the past month, but a 13.8% increase over the last three months [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Geely Automobile [1][9] Core Views - Geely Automobile reported a total revenue of 167.68 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.01%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 13.05 billion RMB, up 358.48% year-on-year, with total sales of 1.4897 million vehicles, a 32.09% increase year-on-year [3][9] - The company has increased its stake in Zeekr to 62.8% by acquiring an additional 11.3% of shares, while Zeekr has acquired 51% of Lynk & Co [3][8] - Geely's Q3 2024 performance showed a revenue of 60.38 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 20.50% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.80%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.455 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 92.40% [5][9] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2024, Geely's average revenue per vehicle (ASP) was 113,100 RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 0.44 thousand RMB and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.15 thousand RMB. The gross margin for Q3 was 15.58%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.14 percentage points [5][9] - The company’s sales, administrative, and financial expense ratios were 4.47%, 5.82%, and -0.19% respectively, indicating a significant reduction in sales and administrative expense ratios year-on-year [5][9] Sales Performance - Geely's Q3 2024 sales reached 534,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 15.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.24%. The sales of new energy vehicles reached 225,700 units, with a year-on-year increase of 58.92% [5][9] - The new energy penetration rate reached 42.26%, up 11.48 percentage points year-on-year [5][9] Strategic Developments - The acquisition of Lynk & Co by Zeekr is expected to enhance resource integration and brand positioning, improving overall operational efficiency and market expansion capabilities [8][9] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 203.3 billion RMB, 222.4 billion RMB, and 233.3 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 16.03 billion RMB, 11.96 billion RMB, and 15.21 billion RMB [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a trend towards increased intelligence and premium positioning, as evidenced by the recent Guangzhou Auto Show showcasing 1171 vehicles, including 72 new models from domestic brands [24][28] - The strategic restructuring of Geely Holding, which involves increasing its stake in Zeekr and acquiring control of Lynk & Co, is expected to enhance competitive positioning and operational efficiency [3][22] - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies and new vehicle launches on the automotive market, predicting continued improvement in retail sales [28] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Geely Holding is restructuring its ownership of Zeekr and Lynk & Co, aiming for Zeekr to hold a 51% stake in Lynk & Co through a series of transactions totaling approximately 93.67 billion yuan [3][22] - The Guangzhou Auto Show emphasizes the acceleration of smart and high-end vehicle development among domestic brands, with significant new product launches [24][28] Market Performance - From November 11 to November 15, the automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with the automotive index declining by only 2.5% compared to a 3.5% drop in the Shanghai Composite [31] - The report notes that during the same period, several key automotive stocks, including Li Auto and Xpeng, experienced significant declines, with Li Auto down 8.8% and Xpeng down 13.5% [31] Industry Indicators - The report indicates a positive outlook for the automotive retail market, driven by new vehicle launches and supportive policies, suggesting that the overall consumption environment is improving [28] - The report recommends focusing on various segments within the automotive industry, including passenger vehicles, components, and commercial vehicles, highlighting specific companies that are expected to benefit from the market recovery [6][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is driven by technological innovation and operational excellence, positioning itself as a global chemical giant with high technology and low cost as its competitive advantages [2] - Short-term profitability is influenced by product price spreads, while long-term growth is driven by the company's ability to continuously evolve and launch milestone products [3] - The company's MDI business has proven its strength, and future projects will be key to its continued growth [3] Key Financial Metrics - The company's Q4 2024 price spread index averaged 76.01, up 2.76 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 13.27th percentile historically [4] - Q4 2024 net profit is estimated at 3.9 billion yuan, with the polyurethane segment's price spread index at 96.34, up 7.91 from Q3 2024 [4] - The petrochemical segment's price spread index for Q4 2024 is at a historical low of 60.57, down 4.79 from Q3 2024 [4] - The new materials segment's price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 37.74, down 0.12 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 10.04th percentile historically [4] Project Progress - The company's 150,000-ton/year MDI technical renovation and expansion project in Fujian has completed its first environmental impact assessment [5] - The company's 10,000-ton/year vanillin industrial chain project has entered the environmental impact report review stage [6] - The company's 10,000-ton/year lithium iron phosphate project has completed its first environmental impact assessment [8] MDI Market Analysis - In October 2024, the average price of pure MDI was 18,248 yuan/ton, down 11.67% year-on-year and 0.90% month-on-month [9] - The price spread between pure MDI and coal/benzene was 12,193 yuan/ton in October 2024, down 13.49% year-on-year but up 2.71% month-on-month [9] - Overseas MDI plants have experienced frequent unplanned shutdowns, with domestic MDI exports increasing by 5.69% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024 [10] Downstream Demand - Domestic refrigerator production in September 2024 increased by 9.0% year-on-year, while exports rose by 9.7% [11] - Domestic car production in October 2024 increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with sales up 7.0% [11] - New housing construction area in September 2024 decreased by 22.2% year-on-year, while cumulative construction area fell by 12.2% [11] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2024/2025/2026 is forecasted at 190.6/230.5/261.8 billion yuan, with net profits of 15.0/20.4/26.0 billion yuan [12] - The company's PE ratios for 2024/2025/2026 are estimated at 16x, 12x, and 9x, respectively [14] Polyurethane Segment - The polyurethane segment's price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 96.34, up 7.91 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 22.14th percentile historically [71] - The MDI price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 127.53, up 12.06 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 30.41th percentile historically [71] TDI Segment - The TDI price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 43.37, down 1.56 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 6.81th percentile historically [129]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown improvement in its operating performance, with a notable increase in production capacity utilization and sales growth driven by new projects [3][5] - The company is actively adjusting its product and market structure in response to industry supply-demand imbalances and overcapacity [2][5] - The integration of cellulose ether and plant capsule production provides a competitive advantage, positioning the company to benefit from ongoing industry demand recovery [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 74 million yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year and 5.4% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The gross profit margin was 29.2%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year but up 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 1.50 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 51.26 million yuan, enhancing shareholder returns [4] Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.96 billion yuan, 2.31 billion yuan, and 2.69 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 266 million yuan, 356 million yuan, and 468 million yuan [9][12] - The expected growth rates for revenue and net profit are 26% and 21% for 2024, and 18% and 34% for 2025, respectively [9][12] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 18.53 for 2024, 13.87 for 2025, and 10.55 for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation trend [9][12]

Group 1 - Home Depot's Q3 performance exceeded expectations with a sales increase of 6.6% year-on-year, reaching $40.2 billion, while operating profit was $5.4 billion, and net profit was $3.6 billion [13] - On Holding AG reported a record high Q3 sales of 635.8 million Swiss francs, a 32.3% year-on-year increase, driven by a 49.8% growth in DTC channel sales [12] - CAVA's profit attributable to shareholders surged by 360.33% year-on-year to $51.7 million, with total revenue increasing by 33.5% to $736 million [13] Group 2 - The global silicon wafer shipment volume increased by 6.8% year-on-year in Q3 2024, reaching 3,214 million square inches [20] - The Chinese new energy vehicle production surpassed 10 million units for the first time, marking a 4.3% increase compared to the previous year [25] - The coal production in October 2024 was 410 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, while coal imports rose by 28.5% to 46.25 million tons [52][56] Group 3 - The gaming sector showed strong growth, with NetEase's Q3 gaming revenue reaching 20.9 billion yuan, despite a 4.2% year-on-year decline [39] - Bilibili achieved a revenue of 7.3 billion yuan in Q3 2024, marking a 26% year-on-year increase and its first quarterly profit since going public [44] - The aluminum and copper markets are expected to face limited downside due to ongoing support from the US economy and China's growth policies [32]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the aluminum industry Core Insights - The raw material supply is not a bottleneck for electrolytic aluminum production, with increasing price volatility due to higher import concentration of bauxite in China [6][38] - Global bauxite reserves are abundant but concentrated in a few countries, with Guinea, Vietnam, Australia, and Brazil holding 65% of the total reserves as of 2023 [6][16] - China's reliance on imported bauxite has increased, with a foreign dependency rate reaching 63.1% in 2024, primarily from Guinea [38][39] - The overall supply of electrolytic aluminum in China is expected to remain relatively stable, with short-term supply influenced by precipitation in the southwestern region [7][8] - Demand for aluminum in construction remains resilient, with growth expected in manufacturing and renewable energy sectors, leading to a tight balance in supply and demand for electrolytic aluminum in 2024 [7][8] Summary by Sections 1. Aluminum Industry Chain - The aluminum industry chain includes upstream mining and smelting (bauxite mining and alumina production), midstream electrolytic aluminum smelting, and downstream aluminum processing and consumption [13][14] 2. Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Global bauxite production is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.1% from 2023 to 2030, with Guinea and Indonesia being the main contributors [6][33] - The report highlights that the production capacity of alumina is not a bottleneck for electrolytic aluminum production, with significant new capacities expected in both domestic and overseas markets [7][46] 3. Pricing Mechanism - The pricing of electrolytic aluminum is primarily influenced by inventory levels, with a correlation observed between aluminum and copper prices during periods of weak supply-demand dynamics [8] - The CIF price of bauxite is highly sensitive to shipping costs, which are affected by port facilities and transportation infrastructure [8] 4. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that Guinea will continue to be a major source of bauxite production growth, while Indonesia's bauxite export restrictions may be reconsidered in the future [24][29] - The overall outlook for the aluminum industry remains cautiously optimistic, with supply-demand dynamics expected to stabilize in the near term [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [1] Core Insights - Tencent's Q3 2024 revenue reached 167.2 billion RMB, representing an 8% year-over-year increase and a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase. Operating profit was 53.3 billion RMB, up 20% year-over-year and 5% quarter-over-quarter. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 53.2 billion RMB, reflecting a 47% year-over-year increase and a 12% quarter-over-quarter increase [1][11][18] - The gaming revenue accelerated with a 13% year-over-year growth, driven by both domestic (14%) and international (9%) markets. The deferred revenue reached a record high, indicating strong future revenue potential [30][31] - The marketing services business grew by 17% year-over-year, supported by demand for advertising on platforms like WeChat and mini-programs, demonstrating resilience in the advertising sector despite macroeconomic pressures [47][48] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 overall gross margin increased by 3.6 percentage points year-over-year, remaining stable quarter-over-quarter. Non-IFRS operating profit grew by 19% year-over-year, while Non-IFRS net profit increased by 33% to 59.8 billion RMB [18][22] - Free cash flow for the quarter was 58.5 billion RMB, significantly up from 40.4 billion RMB in the previous quarter, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [27] Business Segments Value-Added Services - Gaming revenue for Q3 2024 was 51.8 billion RMB, accounting for 31% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 13%. The deferred revenue balance reached 113.1 billion RMB, a 23% increase year-over-year [30][31] - The social network segment reported a 4% year-over-year increase in revenue, driven by sales of virtual goods and subscription services [41] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue increased to 30 billion RMB, a 17% year-over-year growth, driven by demand for video ads and mini-programs [47] - The video account advertising revenue saw over 60% year-over-year growth, indicating strong demand and potential for further monetization [48] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services grew by 2% year-over-year to 53.1 billion RMB, with growth in wealth management services offsetting declines in payment services due to weak consumer spending [49] - The cloud business is expected to continue growing, supported by the launch of new AI models and improved operational efficiencies [49][52] Shareholder Returns - Tencent plans to repurchase over 100 billion HKD worth of shares in 2024, which, along with cash dividends, is expected to provide strong support for the stock price [53] Earnings Forecast - The report projects revenues for FY2024-2026 to be 654.5 billion RMB, 699.1 billion RMB, and 747.9 billion RMB respectively, with Non-IFRS net profits of 223.3 billion RMB, 251.8 billion RMB, and 275 billion RMB [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1]. Core Views - The global chemical industry is currently experiencing a bottoming out phase, with European chemical plants facing the highest costs globally. Due to rising costs and aging equipment, there are signs of accelerated capacity exit in Europe. Meanwhile, domestic capacity additions in China are reaching their peak, and future capital expenditures are expected to decline [1]. - Domestic demand in China is anticipated to continue recovering, with leading companies in the country solidifying their cost and efficiency advantages while expanding capacity. This expansion is expected to positively impact performance, as leading firms enter a long-term upward performance cycle [1]. - The report highlights four key investment opportunities: low-cost expansion, improving industry conditions, new materials, and high dividend yields [4][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Observation - The chemical industry is in a long-term growth phase, with a focus on the recovery of domestic demand and the performance of leading companies [3]. - The chemical industry index from Guohai Securities is at 95.73, a decrease of 0.41 from the previous week [2]. 2. Data Tracking - Key products such as butanol and MDI have seen price fluctuations, with butanol prices rising due to supply constraints and strong downstream demand [9][10]. - The report notes specific price changes for various chemicals, including a rise in the price of R22 refrigerant to 32,000 RMB/ton, and a decrease in titanium dioxide prices to 14,660 RMB/ton [16][21]. 3. Focus on Key Stocks - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in various segments, including Wanhua Chemical, Luyuan Tire, and others, which are expected to benefit from low-cost expansions and improving market conditions [1][4]. - Specific stocks are highlighted with their current prices and investment ratings, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [48].

Core Views - In the long term, the space for continued decline in internationally priced commodities such as copper, aluminum, and crude oil is relatively limited, supported by the soft landing or non-landing of the US economy and ongoing growth stabilization policies in China [2] - The exchange rate aspect shows that the USD/CNY is approaching 7.3 again, which may enhance the motivation for "expectation management" by the central bank and regulatory agencies [3] - In the black metal sector, weak demand from the real estate construction side and the upcoming rainy season in Brazil and Australia may lead to a continued weak fluctuation in rebar and iron ore prices [4] - In the US stock market, the Trump trade is driving USD appreciation, and tax cut expectations may continue to benefit US stocks; in the A-share market, the Fed's shift from dovish to hawkish means limited monetary easing space for China's central bank, leading to potential short-term A-share pullbacks, with long-term performance depending on fiscal and industrial incremental policies [5] - For precious metals, it is expected that gold may have overreacted to the Fed's hawkish turn in the short term, but long-term gold prices may still benefit from expectations of secondary inflation in the US, presenting a long-term buying opportunity during this round of gold price adjustments [6] Historical Performance Review - In the past month, major asset performances showed Brent crude oil down by 9.3%, rebar down by 9.1%, and LME copper down by 7.4%, while the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index also experienced declines [10] - The A-share and US stock markets saw significant gains, with A-shares benefiting from a series of positive policies, while commodities faced larger declines [11] Exchange Rate and Precious Metals - The Trump victory has led to a renewed upward trend in USD/CNY, breaking above 7.2, with expectations of further depreciation pressure on the RMB if it surpasses 7.3 [16] - The short-term reaction of gold prices to the Fed's hawkish stance has been negative, but long-term prospects remain positive due to potential secondary inflation in the US [22] Black Metals - The weak demand in the real estate sector and the upcoming rainy seasons in Brazil and Australia are expected to keep iron ore prices under pressure, despite potential short-term relief from seasonal factors [53] Crude Oil - The core reasons for the decline in oil prices in October and November include the IEA's downward revision of global oil demand expectations and the Fed's tapering of rate cuts, with WTI crude oil prices falling below $70 per barrel [60]