Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company,卓越新能, is a pioneer in the industrial production of biodiesel in China, focusing on the integrated biomass energy layout and continuously increasing R&D investment [3][10]. - The biodiesel market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with a focus on raw material substitution and overcoming trade barriers [3][4]. - The company is expanding its overseas sales network and enhancing its product offerings in biobased materials, which is expected to bolster its competitive edge [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Integrated Biomass Energy Layout -卓越新能 is the largest producer of biodiesel in China, with a production capacity of approximately 500,000 tons as of June 2024, and a biobased materials capacity of 90,000 tons [3][14]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, enhancing the value-added of its products and the utilization rate of waste oils [10][14]. 2. Tight Supply-Demand Balance in Biodiesel - The report highlights the ongoing tight balance in the biodiesel market, with a projected supply-demand gap of 350,000 tons in 2024, -120,000 tons in 2025, and 770,000 tons in 2026 [3][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the rising price of waste oils as a raw material, which is becoming increasingly cost-effective compared to traditional vegetable oils [3][40]. 3. Overseas Channels and Biobased Materials -卓越新能 has established subsidiaries in Singapore and the Netherlands to enhance its global trading capabilities and mitigate the impact of trade barriers [3][4]. - The company is also expanding its biobased materials segment, with a new 50,000-ton natural fatty alcohol project expected to contribute significantly to profits [4][14]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 157 million, 634 million, and 792 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting significant growth rates [5][19]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will reach 1.30, 5.28, and 6.60 yuan for the same years [5][19].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司首次覆盖 卓越新能(688196.SH) 2025 年 03 月 27 日 买入（首次） 所属行业：基础化工/化学制品 当前价格(元)：46.32 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王友舜 邮箱：wangys5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 卓越新能：中国生物柴油工业化生产先驱。公司是我国第一家从事废油脂制备生物 柴油的技术研发并率先实现工业化生产的企业，围绕"生物质能化一体化"产业布局 持续加大科研投入，基于废弃油脂和生物柴油开发应用的产业链不断丰富，产品附 加值和废弃油脂的综合利用率不断提升。截至 2024 年 6 月，公司生物柴油产能规 模约 50 万吨，生物基材料产能规模达 9 万吨，生物柴油产量和出口量连续多年位 列国内同类企业前列。 生物柴油紧平衡格局延续，关注原料替代与贸易突围。酯基生物柴油是当前应用最 广泛的生物柴油类型，占比超 85%。原料替代方面，废弃油脂因其减排效益最优， 并不占用耕地面积，且欧美国家已 ...

2025 年 03 月 27 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 研究助理 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 政策传导显效，工企补库扩表 2025 年 1-2 月工业企业利润数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心观点：1-2 月份，规模以上工业企业营业收入继续改善，利润降幅较去年 1-12 月收窄。1-2 月工业企业呈现量仍强、价磨底、利润率再度转弱的盈利格局，当前 工企利润主要拖累在于利润率，虽然有春节等季节性因素的影响，但从绝对水平看 当前工企利润率仍位于 2019 年以来同期低位。不过库存周期和企业杠杆率均透露 积极信号，库存增速结束连续 3 个月的回落，工企负债增速进一步上行，后续随着 地产和消费对于经济形成的掣肘逐步减弱，政策发力是否能够带动内需明显回暖 是库存周期上行能否形成的关键，与此同时，伴随着企业微观杠杆率延续同比反 弹，企业端宽信用若能够进一步加力提效，企业加杠杆 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 神火股份(000933.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 26 日 买入（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：18.77 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 神火股份 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 10.14 | 7.46 | 19.34 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 9.97 | 4.87 | 20.68 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《神火股份：回购引导信心，盈利能 力或将改善》，2025.1.5 2.《神火股份：业绩符合预期，中期股 利加强投资回报》， ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 神火股份(000933.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 26 日 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 买入（维持） 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：18.77 证券分析师 翟堃 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 神火股份 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 10.14 | 7.46 | 19.34 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 9.97 | 4.87 | 20.68 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《神火股份：回购引导信心，盈利能 力或将改善》，2025.1.5 2.《神火股份：业绩符合预期，中期股 利加强投资回报》， ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业专题 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《供给端不确定性加深，溴素涨价 有望超预期》，2025.3.25 2.《SAF 国内应用试点大步推进，新 疆 煤 化 工 进 入 高 速 发 展 期 》， 2025.3.23 3. 《 关 注 聚 氨 酯 涨 价 机 会 》， 2025.3.16 4.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：价差修复 产能释放，看好公司长期成长！》， 2025.3.12 5.《——三氯蔗糖行业专题报告-供 给协同默契空前，内外共振需求稳 健》，2025.3.10 从政策端看民爆行业发展方向 ——民爆行业系列深度① [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 基础化工 2025 年 03 月 26 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 引入：2025 年 2 月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The MLF operation shows a tight balance in quantity and a possible structural decline in price, but the specific price may not be given. The policy function of MLF is gradually weakening, and it is transitioning to other tools such as repurchase and OMO. The short - term bond market is technically bullish, but there is no clear macro - logic for a medium - term downward trend in interest rates, so medium - term caution is still needed [4][6][20]. Summary by Directory 1. Rare "Early Announcement" of MLF, What's the Meaning? - **Quantity perspective**: The MLF injection amount of 450 billion yuan this time is in a tight balance considering the net issuance of government bonds (621.9 billion yuan this week, the highest weekly payment amount this year) and the end - of - quarter capital demand [4][9]. - **Price perspective**: Changing from single - price winning to multi - price winning without announcing the winning interest rate may indicate that the role of the MLF policy interest rate is fading. It may lead to a market perception of structural interest rate cuts [4][9]. - **Cost - reduction effect**: The actual cost - reduction effect may be limited. Although the lower limit of the winning interest rate range of MLF may decline, it may not be lower than the certificate of deposit rate, so the substantial cost - reduction function for the bank system's liability side is not significant [4][9]. - **Similarity to repurchase**: MLF and repurchase are both medium - term liquidity tools. After the net MLF injection, the repurchase volume this month may be small, and the policy function of MLF is gradually weakening [4][12]. - **Overall signal**: The current MLF operation shows positive signals of tight balance in quantity and possible structural decline in price, but the specific price may not be given. Attention should also be paid to the repurchase situation at the end of the month [4][15]. 2. How Are the Current Technical Indicators Performing? - **T main contract**: The MACD has risen above the 0 - axis, the DIF line has crossed the DEA line to form a golden cross, and the closing price has crossed the BBI multi - empty line, showing a signal of turning from short to long [6][16]. - **TL main contract**: The MACD is below the 0 - axis, the negative column has shortened compared with the previous day, the closing price has crossed the BBI multi - empty line, the 7 - day RSI has risen to around 50, and the J value has risen to 75. Both the T and TL main contracts are in the high - volatility range [6][17]. - **Bond market strategy**: The short - term bond market is technically bullish, with a possible lower limit of 1.75%. However, there is no clear macro - logic indicating a change in the fundamental expectation and a medium - term downward trend in interest rates. The current point is suitable for re - balancing positions and varieties, rather than rashly increasing exposure to risk assets [6][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Insights - The bromine market is experiencing significant price increases due to supply-side uncertainties and high import dependence, with the average market price reaching 28,000 RMB/ton, a 12% increase from the previous trading day and approximately 9,000 RMB/ton higher than the same period in 2024 [4][8]. Supply Side Summary - China's bromine supply is heavily reliant on imports, with the import dependency rising from 47.3% in 2021 to 56.8% in 2024. The geopolitical situation in the Red Sea may further impact imports, as the country faces a shortage of domestic bromine resources [7][13]. - The production of bromine is concentrated among a few global players, with Israel, Jordan, and the USA accounting for over 72% of global production [7]. Demand Side Summary - Brominated flame retardants are the largest downstream application, accounting for over 60% of domestic bromine usage. The demand for these products is expected to grow, particularly in the electronics sector, driven by the increasing use of PCBs [7][8]. - Bromine is also a key intermediate in pharmaceuticals and pesticides, with applications in herbicides gaining traction due to their effectiveness and lower toxicity compared to alternatives [7]. Cost Side Summary - The rising price of sulfur, a key raw material for bromine production, has been noted, with prices reaching 2,450 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 26.29% and a year-on-year increase of 160.64% [7]. - Shipping costs are expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand, which may further increase the cost of bromine production [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shandong Haihua, Lubei Chemical, Yara International, and Sully Co., which have significant bromine production capacities [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side uncertainty has deepened, and the price of bromine is expected to rise significantly [4] - China's bromine supply is heavily reliant on imports, with the import dependency increasing from 47.3% in 2021 to 56.8% in 2024 [5][10] - The demand for bromine is primarily driven by brominated flame retardants, which account for over 60% of domestic bromine consumption [5][12] - Rising costs of sulfur and shipping are expected to support bromine price increases [6] Summary by Sections Supply Side - China's bromine resources are scarce, mainly found in underground brine in Laizhou Bay, Shandong Province, with declining effective production capacity [5] - The geopolitical situation in the Red Sea may impact imports, leading to increased supply chain pressures and costs [5] Demand Side - Brominated flame retardants are the largest downstream application, with significant growth expected in the electronics sector due to the increasing use of PCBs [5] - The construction and mining sectors are also expected to provide rigid support for brominated flame retardant demand [5] Cost Side - Sulfur prices have been rising, with a current price of 2450 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 26.29% and a year-on-year increase of 160.64% [6][14] - Shipping costs are anticipated to recover due to seasonal improvements and geopolitical uncertainties, further increasing supply chain costs [6] Recommended Stocks - Key companies to watch include Shandong Haihua, Lubei Chemical, Yara International, and Sully Co., with significant bromine production capacities [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, with prices anticipated to rebound due to macroeconomic improvements and policy support [4][7] - The report highlights the resilience of the coal sector amidst price fluctuations and emphasizes the potential for profit recovery in the coal-coke-steel supply chain [4][7] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Analysis**: As of March 21, 2025, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 671 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton (-1.47%) from the previous week, while the main coking coal price at Jingtang Port remains stable at 1380 CNY/ton [4][13] - **Supply and Demand**: The report notes a slight decrease in overall supply due to some coal mines halting production, while downstream demand is expected to increase as construction activities resume [4][36] - **Inventory Analysis**: The total inventory at major ports shows a mixed trend, with southern ports decreasing by 1.04% and northern ports increasing by 0.77% [4][43] 2. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a decline of only 0.86% compared to a 1.60% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [4][57] 3. Recent Events - **Company Announcements**: China Shenhua reported a revenue of 338.375 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, while China Coal Energy reported a revenue of 189.399 billion CNY, down 1.9% year-on-year [4][62][63] - **Policy Developments**: The report mentions the government's initiatives to support the coal industry, including a focus on traditional industry upgrades and demand expansion [4][7]