证券研究报告 | 宏观周报 [Table_Main] 宏观周报 证券分析师 2025 年 2 月 17 日 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy@tebon.com.cn 连桐杉 邮箱：liants＠tebon.com.cn 本周看什么？特朗普政策推进，融资平台 降压 --宏观周报（20250210-20250216） [Table_Summary] 摘要： 核心观点：本周聚焦两个方向，其一，特朗普政策的持续推进。其二，美各地加速 压降融资平台，多省一年已压降 50%以上，最高达 76%。 高频宏观数据：高频数据映射的行业来看，地产、文旅消费和汽车行业景气度上 行，建筑建材和农林牧渔行业景气度待修复。 短期投资建议：债市关注中央、地方和各部委两会前政策表述；股市关注宏观逻辑 与产业逻辑的共振，以及配置型资金的跟进。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 热点观察 1：特朗普政策的持续推进。过去一周，我们主要关注特朗普两项政策的 推进。一是，特朗普有意重估其黄金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive shift in consumer spending policies, particularly benefiting the liquor sector, which is expected to see a recovery in sales [7][10]. - The overall food and beverage sector has shown resilience, with various sub-sectors experiencing different levels of performance, indicating potential investment opportunities [14][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The liquor sector is experiencing a rebound due to proactive consumption policies, with a reported increase in sales during the Spring Festival compared to previous periods [10]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong fundamentals and market control, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [10]. 2. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.15 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 2.34% [17]. - Sub-sectors like pre-processed foods and liquor saw significant gains, while snacks and soft drinks faced declines [18]. 3. Key Data Tracking - Liquor prices have shown stability, with notable brands experiencing price increases of 1-5% [28]. - Beer production in December 2024 increased by 12.20% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in demand [37]. - The average price of fresh milk was reported at 3.12 CNY/kg, reflecting slight fluctuations in the dairy market [41]. 4. Company Performance - Chongqing Beer reported a decline in revenue and profit for 2024, but high-end beer sales are on the rise, suggesting a potential recovery [11]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the snack sector, such as Gan Yuan Foods and Xi Mai Foods [14]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends key players in various segments: - Liquor: Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [12]. - Beer: Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer [12]. - Soft Drinks: Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [12]. - Dairy: Yili and Mengniu [12]. - Snacks: Gan Yuan Foods and Three Squirrels [12].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 食品饮料 2025 年 02 月 17 日 食品饮料 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 熊鹏 资格编号：S0120522120002 邮箱：xiongpeng＠tebon.com.cn 黄欣培 资格编号：S0120524100002 邮箱：huangxp3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《食品饮料行业周报 20250205- 20250207-春节动销稳定，建议关注 节后需求恢复速度》，2025.2.10 2.《西麦食品（002956.SZ）：燕麦行 业乘风起，龙头企业加速发展》， 2025.1.27 3.《东鹏饮料（605499.SH）：乘时好 风起，万里东鹏飞》，2025.1.24 4.《食品饮料行业周报(20250113- 20250119）：社零增速改善，节前动 销符合预期》，2025.1.20 5.《食品饮料行业周报 20250106- 20250110-八代五 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the upcoming peak season for coal and coke steel, suggesting a focus on the elasticity of these commodities [4] - It emphasizes the potential for price rebounds in coking coal due to improved macroeconomic expectations and government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [6][8] - The report identifies three key investment directions: coking coal elasticity, quality dividends, and long-term growth [8] Industry Data Tracking - **Price Analysis**: The report notes a decline in thermal coal prices, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price at 741 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton (-1.46%) [14][19] - **Supply and Demand**: There is an increase in railway coal inflow to Qinhuangdao port, with a total of 489,000 tons, up 39.71% from the previous week [40][44] - **Inventory Analysis**: Total coal inventory at major ports increased by 443,200 tons (+6.45%), with Qinhuangdao inventory rising by 51,000 tons (+8.04%) [47][49] Market Performance - The coal sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.50% compared to a 1.30% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [59][62] Important Events Review - The report includes significant industry news and company announcements, such as the increase in coal exports from Russia to China and production updates from Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group [67][69]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant role of ERP systems as a gateway for enterprise services, accumulating high-quality data and potentially positioning DeepSeek as a leader in private deployment [5]. - DeepSeek's recent open-source model releases have enhanced computational efficiency, leading to rapid adoption, with a global daily active user count surpassing 20 million within 20 days of launch [5]. - The report emphasizes the transformative potential of AI in ERP systems, particularly following SAP's integration of AI into its product matrix, which has resulted in a stock price increase of 187.8% from January 3, 2023, to February 14, 2025 [5]. - The SaaS market in China reached a scale of 58.1 billion yuan in 2023, growing at approximately 23.1%, indicating a rising penetration rate and the potential for AI applications to enhance SaaS value [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer industry has shown a performance trend with fluctuations ranging from -24% to +61% over the specified periods [3]. Related Research - The report references several related studies that explore the implications of AI in various applications, including robotics and enterprise resource planning [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Kingdee International, Yonyou Network, Hand Information, Dingjie Smart, P-Link Software, Saiyi Information, Shiji Information, Jiuxi Software, and China Software International for potential investment opportunities [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum, which is expected to increase trade tensions and impact market dynamics [5]. - Precious metals are experiencing a surge in demand due to the tariffs, with gold prices reaching historical highs [5]. - Industrial metals are showing price differentiation, with copper prices rising amidst a recovering market sentiment [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices have increased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au9999 closing at 687 CNY/g, reflecting a weekly change of 2.6% and a yearly change of 43.2% [15]. - **Industrial Metals**: Prices are mixed; SHFE copper rose by 1.1% to 78,090 CNY/ton, while LME copper increased by 5.6% to 9,812 USD/ton [35][37]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum price reached 20,710 CNY/ton, up 0.5%, with LME aluminum at 2,662 USD/ton, up 0.9% [49]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead price decreased by 0.3% to 17,130 CNY/ton, while LME lead fell by 1.5% to 1,951 USD/ton [59]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc price increased by 0.5% to 24,125 CNY/ton, with LME zinc at 2,845 USD/ton, up 1.0% [66]. 2. Market Performance - The report notes a significant increase in copper inventory, with SHFE copper stocks rising by 110.6% [38]. - The report also indicates a mixed performance in the lead market, with a notable increase in lead inventory [60]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, with recommendations for companies such as Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining [5]. - For industrial metals, the report recommends companies like Tianshan Aluminum and China Hongqiao, emphasizing the expected recovery in demand [5].

Group 1: Monetary and Credit Trends - In January, M2 growth rate decreased to 7.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[10] - New M1 growth rate was 0.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points compared to December[26] - Total social financing (社融) reached a historical high of 7.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 586.6 billion yuan year-on-year[17] Group 2: Loan Dynamics - New RMB loans in January amounted to 5.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 210 billion yuan[11] - Corporate loans surged to 4.78 trillion yuan, marking a historical monthly high, with short-term loans increasing by 1.74 trillion yuan and medium to long-term loans by 3.46 trillion yuan[13] - Residential loans saw a decrease, with short-term loans down by 497 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans increasing by 4.935 trillion yuan, but still lower than the previous year[12] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the "weak reality" may be improving, with indicators pointing towards a stabilization of expectations and a potential recovery in economic fundamentals[34] - Key variables to monitor include M1 growth, corporate profitability, and price levels, particularly core CPI trends, which are crucial for assessing policy effectiveness and market performance[20] - The likelihood of further monetary easing remains strong, with a higher feasibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts compared to interest rate reductions in the short term[34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [2]. Core Insights - The AI sector is a core competitive arena between China and the US, with ongoing multi-dimensional competition in policy, technology, and funding. The US currently holds a first-mover advantage, but China is catching up, eliminating the technological gap [5][16]. - DeepSeek's deployment is driving significant demand for computing power across various industries, with a notable increase in commercial applications and cloud service integration [20][21]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - AI is a key competitive field between China and the US, with the US imposing restrictions on high-end chip purchases by China, while China is fostering open collaboration [5][16]. - DeepSeek's optimization reduces the need for high-end chips and promotes the development of smaller models, enhancing edge deployment [17][20]. - The deployment of DeepSeek has led to widespread cloud service integration, establishing a commercial charging model and increasing demand for computing power across various sectors [20][21]. Industry News - DeepSeek has become a focal point for multiple parties, with various cloud providers and government entities successfully deploying or integrating the model [21]. - The 2025 China Artificial Intelligence Computing Power Development Assessment Report predicts that the scale of intelligent computing power will double within two years, reaching 1,037.3 EFLOPS by 2025 [23]. - ByteDance's UltraMem sparse model architecture significantly reduces inference costs by up to 83%, enhancing the feasibility of large model applications [24]. - The successful launch of the low-orbit satellite group for the GW constellation marks a significant step in expanding satellite internet capabilities [25]. Market Review and Focus - The telecommunications sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 3.20% increase in the index, while the AI computing index rose by 12.24% [26][28]. - Key companies to watch include ZTE, Unisoc, and Meig Smart, among others, as they are positioned to benefit from advancements in AI and computing infrastructure [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail industry [2] Core Insights - The rise of domestic AI models and supportive policies are expected to drive the "AI + consumption" trend, enhancing efficiency across various sectors [5][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications in sectors such as human resources, education, e-commerce, offline retail, beauty, and OTA [5][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The retail sector has shown a performance decline of 26% compared to the CSI 300 index [3] AI Development - Multiple domestic AI models have made significant advancements in early 2025, including the launch of DeepSeek-R1, which has gained substantial user engagement [5][7] - The cost of DeepSeek-R1 API services is significantly lower than that of OpenAI's models, making it an attractive option for businesses [7][9] Policy Support - Recent government initiatives aim to promote "AI + consumption" as a key strategy for boosting economic growth and enhancing consumer experiences [9][10] Sector-Specific Opportunities - **Human Resources**: Companies like Beijing Renli and Keri International are leveraging AI for recruitment efficiency [12][15] - **Education**: Institutions such as Bean Education and Action Education are integrating AI to enhance learning experiences and operational efficiency [12][13] - **E-commerce**: Companies like Focus Technology and Aike Innovation are utilizing AI for product selection and customer service improvements [17][18] - **Offline Retail**: Retailers like IKEA and Kidswant are adopting AI to enhance customer engagement and marketing precision [19][20] - **Beauty**: Brands are employing AI for personalized skincare solutions and product development [20][21] - **OTA**: Travel platforms are implementing AI to optimize customer service and operational efficiency [15][21]

Group 1: Consumption Trends - China is transitioning into a "quality consumption" era, where consumers prioritize product quality over marketing gimmicks[3] - The average ticket price for movies has slightly increased, but the structure of consumption shows significant differentiation, with "Ne Zha" accounting for over 50% of the box office during the Spring Festival[7] - Consumer behavior is categorized into four types: quality consumption, price-performance pursuit, consumption upgrade, and consumption downgrade[3] Group 2: Economic Insights - The logic of supply creating demand is questioned; while Keynesian economics suggests expanding total demand, it can lead to overcapacity risks and inflation[3][51] - Recent data shows a 46% year-on-year increase in Spring Festival box office revenue and a 42% increase in audience numbers[5] - The rise of online review platforms has increased transparency in product quality, reducing trial and error consumption[40] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To stimulate consumption, both macroeconomic policies and microeconomic incentives for quality supply are necessary[3] - The potential of the Chinese consumer market is vast, and policies should focus on creating more high-quality supply scenarios[3] - The emergence of new consumption trends, such as "first-release economy" and "silver economy," highlights the need for targeted economic strategies[3]