王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 内需与出口共振，需求端有望稳健向好。长丝下游主要集中在纺服领域，年初以来 在我国居民收入及消费信心趋稳、国家促消费政策逐步显效等因素支撑下，国内纺 服链稳步复苏，根据 Wind，1-10 月国内纺织业、服装业规模以上工业增加值同比 分别+5.1%、+0.5%。直播带货、即时零售等电商新模式持续激发市场消费潜力， 1-10 月服装鞋帽针织品类、服装类企业零售额同比分别+1.1%、+0.6%。此外，原 料端，长丝出口延续近六年来的高位水平，根据钢联，1-10 月累计出口 317 万吨， 同比-6.1%；应用端，我国纺织产业链竞争力持续释放，前三季度对美国、欧盟、 东盟、加拿大、乌克兰等贸易伙伴纺织品服装出口额均实现正增长。根据百川盈孚， 2024 年 1-11 月我国涤纶长丝表观消费量合计 3099 万吨，同比+19.1%，增速表现 亮眼。向后展望，在 2025 年国家层面大力提振消费的预期下，长丝内需有望加速 回暖，同时海外补库周期渐进，长丝出口有望迎来量增。 行业点评 基础化工 资料来源：Wind、绸都网、钢联、德 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market (Maintain)" for the basic chemical sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry's continued prosperity [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the announcement of the 2025 refrigerant quotas is slightly above expectations, with an increase in production quotas for the third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) to 792,000 tons for production and 390,000 tons for internal use, which is an increase of 46,000 tons and 50,000 tons respectively compared to 2024 [6]. - Strong external demand and improving domestic demand are expected to sustain the prosperity of the refrigerant market, with significant increases in air conditioning production and sales in November, showing a year-on-year growth of 55.7% in production and 44.2% in sales [7]. - The report suggests that the price of refrigerants has seen substantial increases, with R22, R32, R125, and R134a prices rising by 66.7%, 134.8%, 36.9%, and 42.9% respectively since the beginning of the year [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the public announcement regarding the 2025 quotas for ozone-depleting substances and HFCs, which includes applications from 48 companies for production quotas and 67 companies for import quotas [5]. Market Performance - The second-generation refrigerant quotas are set to decrease as expected, with a reduction of 67.5% from baseline values for HCFCs, which will likely lead to price elasticity for R22 due to strong downstream demand in the air conditioning repair market [13]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific companies such as Sanmei Co., Ltd., Juhua Co., Ltd., Dongyue Group, Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co., Ltd. as potential investment targets in the basic chemical sector [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [17]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to positively impact the non-ferrous metals sector, with precious metals likely to experience a long-term bullish trend. The report suggests that domestic monetary and fiscal policies are also expected to support this outlook [83][84]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review - Precious metals prices have decreased, with gold and silver prices showing a weekly decline of 1.7% and 3.0% respectively. As of December 20, 2024, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's spot price for gold was 612 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold was priced at 2641 USD per ounce [29][74]. - Industrial metals have seen a decline in prices across the board, with SHFE copper down 1.3% and LME copper down 2.2%. The latest SHFE copper price is 73820 CNY per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [45][57]. - The report notes that aluminum prices have also decreased, with SHFE aluminum at 19975 CNY per ton, down 1.8% week-on-week [95]. 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a notable decline in prices for various metals [18]. - The report indicates that the market sentiment remains cautious, with a lack of active trading in the spot market for aluminum due to environmental regulations affecting production stability [21]. 3. Price Trends - The report provides a detailed overview of price changes for various metals, including a 2.5% drop in tin prices and a 5.2% drop in nickel prices. The latest nickel price is 122410 CNY per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% [57][62]. - The report also highlights that lead prices have decreased slightly, with SHFE lead at 17360 CNY per ton, showing a weekly change of -0.1% [109]. 4. Production and Capacity - As of November 2024, the total production capacity for electrolytic aluminum in China is reported at 45.02 million tons, with an operating capacity of 43.94 million tons, indicating a utilization rate of 97.74% [107][108]. - The report notes that the production of refined lead has increased by 9.53% year-on-year, with a monthly output of 330,000 tons [5]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the non-ferrous metals sector that are likely to benefit from the anticipated economic recovery and policy support. Specific recommendations include companies involved in aluminum and copper production [83][84].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication sector [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid development of large models and their applications, with a focus on cost reduction and enhanced interaction capabilities. The shift from training to inference is noted as a significant trend [27][52]. - The successful launch of China's satellite internet project, involving the deployment of 12,992 satellites, marks a pivotal moment for the country's satellite internet capabilities [3][29]. - The demand for ASIC chips is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing need for specialized computing power in AI applications, with major companies reporting substantial revenue growth in this area [31][53]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the ongoing iteration and enhancement of large models, with significant updates from major players like ByteDance and Google, showcasing improved performance and reduced costs [27][54]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in satellite internet and commercial aerospace, as these sectors are poised for growth due to recent advancements and government support [3][29]. Industry News - The successful test of a 220-ton hydrogen-oxygen engine by the Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation signifies progress in heavy-lift rocket capabilities, which is crucial for future space missions [55]. - The report notes the increasing adoption of AI applications across various sectors, with significant growth in usage metrics for large models, indicating a trend towards widespread commercial deployment [30][54]. Market Performance - The communication sector outperformed the broader market, with a reported increase of 3.58% in the week, while major indices experienced declines [17][32]. - Specific companies within the sector, such as ZTE and Huayuan Communication, showed notable weekly gains, reflecting positive market sentiment [12][58].

Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry is rated as "Outperform" with expectations of improved consumer demand due to upcoming holidays and the introduction of new features in WeChat that may boost sales [82]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the restaurant supply chain is under pressure due to weak terminal demand, but there is potential for recovery as policies to stimulate consumption take effect [1][17]. - The snack food sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with a focus on high-potential companies that are adapting to channel changes and enhancing product offerings [2][17]. - The beverage sector shows mixed performance, with some companies like *ST Xifa and ST Tongpu seeing gains, while others like Li Ziyuan face significant declines [5][19]. - The overall valuation of the food and beverage sector stands at 21.13x, significantly higher than the broader market, indicating a potential for correction or adjustment [7][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a downturn, with all sub-sectors showing declines, particularly in pre-processed foods and baked goods [18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming holidays and the potential impact of WeChat's new gifting feature on consumer spending [82]. 2. Sector Performance - The beverage sector has seen notable stock movements, with *ST Xifa leading gains at +8.51% and Li Ziyuan suffering the largest drop at -17.29% [5][19]. - The overall performance of the food and beverage sub-sectors indicates a need for strategic adjustments to cope with changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [18]. 3. Valuation Analysis - The food and beverage sector's valuation is significantly above the market average, suggesting that many companies are currently undervalued, providing a safety margin for investors [7][18]. - Specific sub-sectors like health products and snacks are noted for their relatively high valuations, while dairy and white spirits are on the lower end [7]. 4. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks various price movements in the beverage sector, including a 0.8% increase in the price of Feitian Moutai, indicating a stable demand for premium products [22]. - The production data for beer and wine shows a mixed outlook, with beer production increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, while wine production has decreased significantly [24][25]. 5. Company Announcements - Several companies in the food and beverage sector are making strategic moves, including share buybacks and management changes, indicating a proactive approach to current market challenges [62].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The December FOMC meeting resulted in a hawkish rate cut of 25 basis points, with the policy rate forecast for the end of 2025 revised up by 50 basis points to the range of [3.75, 4.0]%[10] - The Fed's long-term policy rate expectation was adjusted from 2.9% to 3.0%, indicating a further compression of long-end rate cut space[10] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2024-2026 was raised, reflecting a more optimistic view on economic growth and inflation[19] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, US Treasury yields rose sharply, with the US10Y surpassing 4.5%[25] - The FF market now anticipates 1.27 rate cuts in 2025, translating to a reduction of approximately 31.70 basis points, with a higher likelihood of rate cuts concentrated in the first half of the year[25] - The market's reaction to the Fed's hawkish stance has led to significant volatility in major asset classes, including declines in US stocks and gold[25] Group 3: Inflation and Employment - The potential impact of Trump's policies, including mass deportations and government employee cuts, may lead to sticky wage inflation in the second half of 2025[12] - The correlation between the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) and the expected real interest rate (E(RIR)) suggests limited downward movement in E(RIR) if EFFR decreases[11] - The anticipated labor market conditions in early 2025 could face negative shocks, affecting non-farm employment and wage inflation dynamics[49] Group 4: Fiscal Concerns - The ongoing reduction of US Treasury holdings by major foreign creditors, Japan and China, may exacerbate the fiscal deficit concerns and affect the actual term premium[13] - The upcoming debt ceiling discussions in early 2025 will be critical in determining whether Congress will raise or suspend the debt limit[49]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from rising aluminum product prices, with a projected net profit growth of 95% for the fiscal year 2024 compared to the previous year [6] - The increase in alumina prices and stable electrolytic aluminum prices are the main drivers for the significant improvement in the company's performance [6] - The company has a large-scale alumina production capacity, which supports its ongoing performance growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - The average price of alumina in Shandong reached 5,720.00 CNY/ton as of December 17, 2024, with an annual average of 3,963.50 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.5% [6] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum was 19,750.00 CNY/ton as of December 18, 2024, with an annual average of 19,927.25 CNY/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 6.6% [6] - The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 229 billion CNY, 256 billion CNY, and 286 billion CNY respectively [7] Market and Operational Insights - The alumina price is expected to remain strong, potentially driving industry capacity to continue being released in 2025 [7] - The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan has remained high, with a capacity utilization rate of 99.32% in June 2024 [7] - The company is actively expanding its green aluminum production, which is anticipated to provide a competitive advantage due to lower carbon emissions compared to traditional methods [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing increased policy support, which is expected to enhance its value proposition and dividend potential [2][4]. - Recent regulatory changes, including a reduction in dividend handling fees, are anticipated to boost cash dividends for coal companies, thereby enhancing investor returns [4][5]. - The central bank's introduction of a repurchase and refinancing tool is likely to favor high-dividend coal stocks, making them attractive for future investment [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal mining sector has shown a market performance decline of 12% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [2]. Policy Developments - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has issued guidelines to improve the market value management of state-owned enterprises, which is expected to positively impact coal companies currently trading below their net asset value [4]. Dividend Policies - The new dividend handling fee policy will reduce costs for coal companies, potentially saving around 55.77 million yuan based on 2023 dividend distributions, which could lead to increased dividend payouts [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights three key investment directions: 1. High-quality dividend stocks, recommending companies like Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua [6]. 2. Stocks with dual-coke elasticity, recommending companies such as Lu'an Environmental Energy and Pingdingshan Coal [6]. 3. Long-term growth stocks, recommending companies like Guanghui Energy and Gansu Energy Chemical [6].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 永泰能源(600157.SH) 2024 年 12 月 18 日 相关研究 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------|----------------------------| | 买入（维持） 永泰能源（ | 600157.SH ）：上调 | | 所属行业：煤炭 / 煤炭开采 当前价格 ( 元 ) ： 1.81 | 回购价格上限，投资价值凸显 | | 证券分析师 | | | 翟堃 | | | | | 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 57% 永泰能源 沪深300 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|----------------|--------------|-------| | 2023-12 \n沪深 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's controlling shareholder, Huaibei Mining Group, plans to increase its shareholding by RMB 300-500 million within 6 months, demonstrating confidence in the company's future development [5][6] - The company is a leading coking coal producer in East China, with over 70% of its reserves being high-quality coking coal and fat coal [7] - The Taohutu coal mine, currently under construction, is expected to contribute significant profits upon completion, with an estimated annual profit of RMB 1.671 billion [7] - The ethanol project has entered the harvest period, with a production capacity of 600,000 tons/year, making it the largest single-series production facility globally [8] - The company's revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projected revenues of RMB 74.8 billion, RMB 79.8 billion, and RMB 85.3 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [8] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's net profit is expected to be RMB 5.006 billion, RMB 5.250 billion, and RMB 5.756 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [8] - The PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 7.73x, 7.37x, and 6.72x, respectively [8] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 16.9%, 17.0%, and 17.3% for 2024-2026, respectively [10] - The company's ROE is expected to be 12.4%, 11.9%, and 12.0% for 2024-2026, respectively [10] Industry and Market Position - The company is a major coal producer in East China, with 17 coal production mines and a total approved production capacity of 35.85 million tons [7] - The company's coal reserves are characterized by low sulfur, very low phosphorus, medium volatility, strong cohesiveness, and good coking properties [7] - The company's ethanol project is the largest single-series production facility globally, with a capacity of 600,000 tons/year [8] Growth Drivers - The Taohutu coal mine, expected to be completed by the end of 2025, will add an annual production capacity of 8 million tons of high-calorific value thermal coal [7] - The company is accelerating the construction of 5 non-coal mines, which are expected to be completed by the end of 2024 [8] - The company is also expanding its chemical business, with projects including 100,000 tons of dimethyl carbonate, 30,000 tons of carbonate esters, and 30,000 tons of ethylamine under construction [8]