更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 5 日 星期五 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 早盘提示 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周四两市主要指数宽幅波动，走势分化，机器人和半导体板块领涨，中证 1000 指 | | | | | | 数继续拖累市场。两市成交额 1.54 万亿元，缩量。沪深 300 指数收 4546 点，涨 | 15 | | | | | 点，涨幅 0.34%；上证 50 指数收 2974 点，涨 11 点，涨幅 0.38%；中证 500 指数收 | | | | | | 7012 点，涨 16 点，涨幅 0.24%；中证 1000 指数收 7248 点，涨 1 点，涨幅 0.01%。 | | | | | | 行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是半导体设备 ETF、机器人 50ETF、科创半导体 ETF、 | | ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 04 日星期四 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 隔夜夜盘玉米期货强势延续，截至夜盘收盘2601合约涨幅0.93%，收于2276元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 4 日星期四 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 之间，较 2025 年目标区间有所上调。 【市场逻辑】 政策真空期。上周螺纹产量下降，热卷产量增加，五大钢材品种产量增加。上周铁 水日产 234.68 万吨，环比减少 1.6 万吨。钢厂盈利率 35%，周环比下降 2.6%。本 周发运量下降，到港量下降。 【交易策略】 市场交易逻辑仍在产业层面，预计铁矿主力短期围绕 800 一线震荡，主力 2601 合 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 震荡 | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周三铁矿收跌。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、2025 年 10 月全国不锈钢粗钢产量 362.44 万吨，与 2025 年 9 月环比增加 7.87 万吨，增长 2.22%。10 月，中国不锈钢进口量为 12.41 万吨 ...

Morning session notice 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） 跌 减少 | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘主力合约期货价格下跌 4 元至 2122 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价格下 10 元至 2122 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 9328 手至 57.58 万手，空头持仓 41014 手至 64.85 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 甲醇 | 发 震荡 | 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 89.1%，环比+0.37%。海外甲醇开工率 66.9%，环比 -5.8%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 134.94 万吨，较上一期数据减少 1.41 万吨。 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 0.13 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 1.54 万吨。 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 36.15 万吨，较上期减少 1.22 万吨，环比降 3.26%。 3、需求方面，西北甲醇企业签单 8.69 万吨，环比减少 0.19 万吨。样本企业订单待 23.97 万吨，较上期增加 0.90 万吨，环比增 3.90% ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic urea production decline, the agricultural demand is in the off - season, while the industrial demand is gradually increasing. The latest India tender price meets market expectations, and the short - term urea price will be oscillating bullish, with a reference range of 1650 - 1740 yuan/ton. It is recommended to focus on going long on the far - month contracts [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the price of the main urea contract 2601 rose 10 yuan to 1692 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China's mainstream area rose to 1690 yuan/ton. The long - position decreased by 3452 lots to 211,900 lots, and the short - position decreased by 3346 lots to 234,500 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 199,000 tons, a decrease of 0.44 compared to the previous working day and an increase of 14,500 tons compared to the same period last year. The current operating rate is 82.28%, a 0.67% increase compared to 81.6% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons, a 5.38% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of urea port samples is 100,000 tons, remaining unchanged month - on - month [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 37.1%, a 2.4% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate of melamine is 57.4%, a 4.2% month - on - month increase [1] - India Tender: On November 20th, India's IPL held a urea import tender. The lowest CFR prices were 418.40 US dollars/ton on the east coast and 419.50 US dollars/ton on the west coast, both from AGRIFIELD, with a total of 24 suppliers [1] - Economic Data: In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, and the composite PMI output index was 49.7%. The overall economic climate was stable [1] Market Logic - With the decline in domestic urea production, the off - season in agriculture, and the increasing industrial demand, combined with the in - line - with - expectation India tender price, the short - term urea price is expected to be oscillating bullish, with a reference range of 1650 - 1740 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Focus on going long on the far - month contracts [1]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 4 日星期四 | 联系方式：15000295386 | | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌16元至5692元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格下跌15至5755 元/吨，华南瓶片价格下跌 20 至 5830 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 29 手至 6.16 | | | | | 万手，空头持仓增加 473 手至 6.31 万手 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 33.22 万吨，环比+0.08 万吨。国内 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 | | | | | 聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 72.7%，环比+0.1%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5295 元，环 | | | | | 比+23 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-154 元/吨，环比-25 元/吨。 | | | | | 2、2025 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | 1、美国零售联合会（NRF）发布数据，从感恩节到"网络星期一"的五天内，约有 | | | | | 2.029 亿美国消费者进行了购物。这不仅超出 NRF 此前预测的 1.869 亿人次，更是 | | | | | 打破了该组织自 2017 年开始追踪该数据以来的所有记录。 | | | | | 2、在美国期货市场上，与"有担保隔夜融资利率"（SOFR）挂钩的短端利率曲线 | | | | | 结构需求正在增加，该利率与市场对美联储政策利率的预期高度相关。这些押注反 | | | | | 映出一种可能性：美联储主席任期于明年 5 月结束后，货币政策宽松步伐可能加快。 | | | | | 3、英伟达 CFO 表示，多年来数据中心的计算负载大部分由 CPU 完成，而这些工作 | | | | | 正在 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三主力合约期货BZ2603价格下跌10元至5437元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格5325 | | | | | 元/吨（环比-10），山东地区现货价格 5238 元/吨（环比+7）。持仓方面，多头持 | | | | | 仓减少 177 手至 1.6 万手，空头持仓减少 466 至 1.91 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，11 月国内纯苯产量 191.8 万吨，同比-0.93%。12 月计划内检修偏多。 | | | | | 10 月纯苯进口量 49.67 万吨，环比+14.1%。市场消息：华东某炼厂计划 1 月对 1000 | | | | | 万吨常减压以及一套重整检修，影响纯苯产能 60 万吨。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，2025 年 12 月 1 日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：22.4 万吨， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market is in a macro - policy vacuum period, but there may be expectations later. The fundamentals show that last week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand has changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to be destocked, but the destocking speed slows down. Overall, the supply and demand are both weak. The market trading logic may still be at the industrial level, with insufficient marginal increment on the demand side. In the short term, the upside space is cautiously viewed, and the market is mainly in a volatile trend. Later, attention should be paid to the transformation of the trading logic to macro - expectations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar closed flat and hot - rolled coils closed down. They also closed down at night [1] Important Information - In October 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel output was 3.6244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons or 2.22%. In October, China's stainless - steel imports were 124,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,800 tons or 3.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 34,100 tons or 21.56%. From January to October, the total stainless - steel imports were 1.2621 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 343,000 tons or 21.37%. In October, the domestic stainless - steel exports were 358,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,400 tons or 14.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 59,300 tons or 14.2%. From January to October, the cumulative exports were 4.1408 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1,600 tons or 0.04%. In October, China's stainless - steel apparent consumption was 3.0459 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 166,300 tons or 4.68% [1] - Chinalco Group: The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project was successfully sent, carrying 200,000 tons of iron ore [1] - On December 3rd, the average cost of 76 independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,320 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The average profit was a loss of 29 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 79 yuan/ton [1] - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, in November, the national passenger car market retail sales were 2.263 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Among them, the new - energy market retail sales were 1.354 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the new - energy market retail penetration rate was 59.8% [1] Market Logic - In the macro - policy vacuum period, there may be expectations later. Fundamentally, last week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand has changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to be destocked, but the destocking speed slows down. Overall, the supply and demand are both weak [1] Trading Strategy - The upward movement of the futures price is weak. The market trading logic may still be at the industrial level, with insufficient marginal increment on the demand side. In the short term, the upside space is cautiously viewed, and the market is mainly in a volatile trend. Later, attention should be paid to the transformation of the trading logic to macro - expectations. The main contract has been rolled over to the May contract. The resistance level of the rebar 2605 contract is 3,200, and the strong support level is around 3,050. It is not recommended to chase long for now [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that the Chinese stock market is expected to rise further in 2026, continuing this year's strong upward trend [2]. - A team led by the head of Asia at J.P. Morgan and the co - head of global emerging market equity strategy upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - Due to the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, which has a negative impact on the peripheral markets, the major indices of the two Chinese stock markets oscillated and declined on Tuesday. However, the markets have basically digested the external negative factors, and the shrinking trading volume shows that the selling pressure is not significant. The market is expected to continue to oscillate and recover in the future [1][2][3]. - The stock market's profit - making effect will trigger the reallocation of domestic and global funds, with overseas capital flowing back to the Chinese market. This round of market may become a bubble and reach a considerable height [3]. - In the next three years, there is unlikely to be an AI bubble as current GPUs, including older generations, are fully utilized [3]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Tuesday, affected by the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the major indices of the two markets oscillated and declined. The trading volume was 1.59 trillion yuan, showing a shrinking trend during the adjustment. The CSI 300 index closed at 4,554 points, down 22 points or 0.48%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2,978 points, down 15 points or 0.51%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7,040 points, down 61 points or 0.87%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7,313 points, down 73 points or 1.00% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, the top - performing ones were 5G Communication ETF, Building Materials ETF, China State - owned Enterprises ETF, Infrastructure 50 ETF, and General Aviation ETF, while the worst - performing were Media ETF, Film and Television ETF, and Rare Metals ETF Fund. Among the sector indices of the two markets, the top - performing were forestry, aquatic products, hotel and catering, real estate services, and petrochemical indices, and the worst - performing were household appliance parts, motor manufacturing, energy metals, gaming, and film and television theater indices [1]. - The settlement funds of stock index futures for the CSI 1000, CSI 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 indices had net outflows of 2.7 billion, 2.2 billion, 1.7 billion, and 1.2 billion yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - As of the last trading day of November (November 28), among all the funds that individual pension can invest in (Y - share funds), the best - performing funds in 2025 are mainly index funds such as CSI Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50, ChiNext 50, ChiNext, and SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 [1]. - DeepSeek released DeepSeek - V3.2 and DeepSeek - V3.2 - Speciale. DeepSeek - V3.2 aims to balance reasoning ability and output length for daily use and reaches the highest level of current open - source models in agent evaluation. DeepSeek - V3.2 - Speciale aims to push the reasoning ability of open - source models to the extreme [1]. - J.P. Morgan upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" [2][3]. - Alibaba Group's CEO stated that Alibaba is making efforts in both AI - to - B and AI - to - C directions, and based on its ecological advantages, Qianwen APP is expected to create the future AI living entrance [2]. - International Finance Association data shows that in the first 10 months of this year, overseas capital flowing into the Chinese stock market totaled $50.6 billion, far exceeding the full - year figure of $11.4 billion in 2024 [2][3]. - NVIDIA's CEO Huang Renxun said that China will win the artificial intelligence competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2][3]. - The Bank of Japan's expected interest rate hike has led to market concerns about a potential "carry - trade massacre" similar to that in December 2022 [2]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index in November was 48.2, lower than the expected 49 and the previous value of 48.7, indicating continuous contraction in the manufacturing industry [2]. - India's industrial output growth rate in October was much lower than that in September and the expected value, with manufacturing, mining, and power sectors all showing declines [2]. Market Logic - Affected by the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the major indices of the two markets oscillated and declined on Tuesday. The trading volume was 1.59 trillion yuan, showing a shrinking trend during the adjustment. The scale of newly - registered private equity fund products in October was only over 40 billion yuan, which is normal, but the existing scale increased by 1.14 trillion yuan, with an increase of more than 17 percentage points [1][2]. Future Outlook - The major indices of the two markets have basically digested the external negative factors, and the shrinking trading volume shows that the selling pressure is not significant. The market is expected to continue to oscillate and recover. Stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices for range trading [1][2][3]. - Traders' bullish sentiment on the offshore RMB has reached a 14 - year high [3]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to over 85% [3]. Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: The major indices of the two markets have basically digested the external negative factors, and the shrinking trading volume shows that the selling pressure is not significant. The market is expected to continue to oscillate and recover. Stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices for range trading [3]. - Stock index option trading: As the stock index is in the stage of oscillating recovery, look for opportunities to buy deep - out - of - the - money long - term call options on the stock index [3].