| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 节前尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 5 元至 1833 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1810 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 23025 手至 25.9 万手，空头持仓减少 23967 手至 27.0 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 21.56 万吨，较上一工作日持平；较去年同期增加 2.10 万吨；开工率 91.56%，较去年同期 86.92%上涨 4.64%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 83.47 万吨，较上周减少 8.38 万吨，环比减 少 9.12%。尿素港口样本库存量 16.6 万吨，环比+0.1。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 36.1%，环比-5.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 60.7%，环比+2.8%。 4、印度 RCF 尿素进口招标，最晚船期 3 月 31 日，共收到 20 个供货商，总计超 307 | | | | | 万吨投标量。东海岸最低报价 CFR512 美元/吨，西海岸最低报价 CFR508 美元/吨， | | ...

Morning session notice 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 节前主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格下跌 108 元至 6010 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 6005 元/吨（环比+0），山东地区现货价格 6085 元/吨（环比+0）。持仓方面，多 头增加 347 手至 1.92 万手，空头增加 251 手至 2.04 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，1 月国内纯苯产量 194.6 万吨，较上月上升 2.36 万吨，较去年同月 下降 0.82 万吨。12 月纯苯进口量 53.7 万吨，环比+16.8%。 2、库存方面，2026 年 2 月 9 日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：29.7 万吨，较 | | | | | 上期库存 29.6 万吨累库 0.1 万吨，环比增加 0.34%；较去年同期库存 16.8 万吨累 库 12.9 万吨，同比上升 76.79%。2 月 2 日-2 月 ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 24 日星期二 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | | | 分品种观点详述 评级预测说明："+"表示：当日收盘价>上日收盘价；"-"表示：当日收盘价<上日收盘价。 数字代表当日涨跌幅度范围（以主力合约收盘价计算）。0.5 表示：0≤当日涨跌幅<0.5%； 1 表示：0.5%≤当日涨跌幅<1%；2 表示：1%≤当日涨跌幅<2%；3 表示：2%≤当日涨跌幅<3%； 4 表示：3%≤当日涨跌幅<4%；5 表示：4%≤当日涨跌幅。评级仅供参考，不构成任何投资建 议。 重要事项: | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 节前 SR605 合约收盘价 5211 元/吨，日跌幅 0.82%；SR609 合约收盘价 5222 元/吨， 日跌幅 0.70%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 1.2 月 18 日(周 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 郑棉总成交 317911 持仓 1034726。结算价 5 月 14780，9 月 14865，1 月 15245。 ICE3 月合约结算价 63.56 涨 53 点，5 月 65.14 跌 49 点，7 月 66.82 跌 36 点；成 | | | | | 交约 5.5 万手。。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、本月中国棉花产消存量资源表上调本年度总需求 10 万吨至 878 万吨，期末库 | | | | | 存减至 631 万吨。新年度预期产量下调，进口增加，总供应减少；消费保持平稳， | | | | | 期末库存进一步下降。 | | | | | 2、截止到 2 月 9 日 24 点，2025 棉花年度全国公证检验重量 746 ...

Morning session notice | 56.6，低于预期的 57.3，一年期通胀预期降至 3.4%。 | | --- | | 7、2 月美国标普全球制造业 PMI 初值 51.2，为 7 个月新低，低于预期 52.6，1 月 前值为 52.4；服务业 PMI 初值 52.3，略低于预期 53.0，1 月前值为 52.7，显示商 业活动增速放缓。 | | 8、S&P Global 公布的数据显示，欧元区 2 月综合 PMI 从 1 月的 51.3 升至 51.9， 制造业 PMI 从 49.5 跃升至 50.8，创 44 个月新高，并自去年 8 月以来首次站上 50 荣枯线。服务业 PMI 小幅上升至 51.8，前值 51.6。其中德国经济显著改善，综合 PMI 升至 53.1 的四个月高点，制造业 PMI 达到 50.7，为 2022 年 6 月以来首次进入 扩张区间。 | | 9、央视新闻：有消息称美国总统特朗普已告诉其顾问，他"倾向于在未来数日（对 伊朗）进行初步打击"，然后在未来数月发动一场更大规模的军事打击，迫使伊朗 "屈服"并按美方要求达成协议。美国和伊朗新一轮谈判定于 26 日在瑞士日 ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 节前焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1121.0 元/吨；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1682.0 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、当地时间 2 月 21 日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，将把对 | | | | | 全球商品加征 10%的进口关税的税率水平提高至 15%。 | | | | | 2、美国最高法院公布关税诉讼案裁决结果，判定美国政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》 | | | | | 对相关贸易伙伴加征的对等关税、芬太尼关税等相关关税违法。商务部对此回应表示， | | | | | 正在对相关内容和影响进行全面评估。中方敦促美方取消对贸易伙伴加征的有关单边关 | | | 焦煤、 | | 税措施。 | | 黑色 | 焦炭 | 震荡偏空 | 3 ...

Morning session notice 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 24 日 星期二 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美国最高法院裁决，美国政府援引《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）所实施的 | | | | | 关税措施，缺乏明确法律授权。在法律压力之下，美国政府发布行政令，宣布终止 | | | | | 一系列关税措施。 | | | | | 2、美国政府转而援引《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条。对进口商品征收 10%的所谓"临 | | | | | 时关税"，为期 150 天，仅有部分商品豁免。十几个小时后，美方又声称将其提高 | | | | | 至 15%。 | | | | | 3、巴克莱数据，标普 500 指数今年以来的交易区间创下 1960 年代以来最窄纪 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 2 月 24 日 星期二 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 节前最后一个交易日两市主要指数调整。两市成交额 1.98 万亿元，变化不大。沪 | | | | 深 | 300 指数收 4660 点，跌 59 点，跌幅-1.25%；上证 50 指数收 3034 点，跌 45 点， | | | | | 跌幅-1.47%；中证 500 指数收 8299 点，跌 123 点，跌幅-1.47%；中证 1000 指数收 | | | | | 8204 点，跌 110 点，跌幅-1.32%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是航空航天 ETF、 | | | | | 中韩半导体 ETF、军工龙头 ETF、科创半导体 ETF、影视 ETF，跌幅居前的是油气 ETF | | | | | 博时、石油 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures market is "slightly bullish with oscillations" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall inflation level in China showed a mild rebound in January. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month. The official manufacturing PMI and service business activity index in January were both below the boom - bust line, indicating a mild economic situation. The central bank's continuous support for the capital market to maintain liquidity, along with the government's fiscal policy and the central bank governor's statement on potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, support the long side of bonds. The bond futures are expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Thursday, the main contract of 30 - year bond futures TL2603 fell 0.03%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.02%. The Wande All - A Index opened slightly higher, fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, and closed up 0.46% with a trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous day's 2.00 trillion yuan [1][2] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: The central bank conducted 1665 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 4000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday. With 1185 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 4480 billion yuan. On February 13, 2026, the central bank will conduct 10000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a 6 - month term [1] - Capital market: The overnight interest rate in the inter - bank capital market on Thursday decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.36% (1.37% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.53% (1.54% the previous day) [1] - Cash bond market: The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly on Thursday. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.04 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year fell 0.48 BP to 1.54%, the 10 - year fell 1.01 BP to 1.79%, and the 30 - year rose 0.05 BP to 2.25% [1] - Diplomatic and trade news: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that President Xi Jinping reiterated the invitation to President Trump to visit China in early April, and the two sides are in communication. The Ministry of Commerce stated that China and the US maintain close communication at all levels through the economic and trade consultation mechanism [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The mild economic situation in January and the central bank's measures to maintain liquidity support the long side of bonds. The Ministry of Finance stated that the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure in 2026 will remain at a necessary level, and the central bank governor said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [1][2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of gold and silver futures have declined significantly, and the market is in a volatile state without a new trend. Investors are advised to control positions and prevent risks during the Spring Festival holiday [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures closed down 3.08% at $4941.4 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures closed down 10.62% at $75.01 per ounce. The main Shanghai gold contract fell 2.42% to 1100.96 yuan per gram, and the main Shanghai silver contract fell 8.35% to 19188 yuan per kilogram [1] 3.2 Important Information - As of February 12, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 5.14 tons from the previous day to 1076.18 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 62 tons from the previous day to 16174.18 tons [1] - According to the CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 7.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 92.2%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by April is 25.3%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 73.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 1.6%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 49.9% [1] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to Trump's expected visit to China in early April: President Xi Jinping reiterated the invitation to President Trump to visit China, and the two sides are maintaining communication on this [1] - The Ministry of Commerce stated that China and the United States maintain close communication at all levels through the economic and trade consultation mechanism [1] - The US President said that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious." According to the AXIOS website, the Israeli Prime Minister said that the US may reach a good agreement with Iran [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 7 was 227,000, compared with an expected 222,000, and the previous value was revised from 231,000 to 232,000 [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On Thursday, the three major US stock indexes closed down collectively, and US technology stocks declined. The market was once again worried about whether the huge investment in the AI field could yield considerable returns. Some investors were forced to liquidate their positions in commodities (including metals) to replenish liquidity, and some funds turned to US Treasuries for safety, leading to a full - scale decline in risk assets. Gold prices fell sharply, and silver and copper futures also declined [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2]