证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 预计钢矿继续震荡走势 2025年12月12日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：纪晓云 联系方式：010-56711796 期货从业资格证号：F3066027 期货交易咨询号：Z0011402 钢矿观点 钢材：中央经济工作会议部分内容超预期，但政策总体侧重于托底，不在于提振，对盘面无明显刺激作用。 宏观预期因素已经减退，市场重回产业层面。本期螺卷产销存均下降。高炉检修增多，铁水产量继续下降。 总体看，供需双弱。上游焦炭第二轮提降已全面落地，成本线不断下移。预计螺卷震荡偏弱，关注螺纹主 力2605合约3050能否跌破。 铁矿石：本期铁水日产229.2万吨，环比减少3.1万吨。预期后期继续减量。本期国内铁矿到港下降，但发 运积极。综合判断，预计铁矿继续维持震荡走势。新主力2605合约压力位800，支撑位734。 【交易策略】 建议短线操作。 重要资讯 3、美联储货币政策委员会（FOMC）会后公布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%–3.75%。这是美联储年内 的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。 4、国家统计局：11月份，中国CPI同比上 ...

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 继往开来——学习中央经济工作会议 摘要 宏观经济 2025年12月12日 | 宏观国债研究员：刘洋 | | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3063825 | 交易咨询证号： Z0016580 联系方式： liuyang18036@greend h.com 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年12月12日星期五 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 12月11日闭幕的中央经济工作会议对2026年经济工作做出指导 。延续了去年的"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针 对性协同性"，"要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，要继续实施适度 宽松的货币政策"。相比去年提出的"加强超常规逆周期调节"，今 年表述为"加大逆周期和跨周期调节"，新提出"发挥存量政策和增 量政策集成效应"。我们理解可能会从超常规过渡到常规，更加重视 跨周期调节，也就是从更长远的视角来制定中短期的政策。 对于财政政策我们关注到"保持必要"四个字，我们预计2026 年财政赤字率可能会保持在4%，新增地方政府债务规模约4万亿元， 超长期国 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the reports. 2. Core View of the Report - The global economy is turning weak. The Fed's actions, such as rate - cuts and short - term bond purchases, along with various economic indicators in the US and other countries, suggest a complex economic situation. The US's policy adjustments and economic trends, including consumer K - type differentiation, employment data, and retail sales, indicate potential economic challenges. Additionally, the AI - driven investment boom and the supply - demand imbalances in some industries are also significant factors affecting the global economic landscape [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Global Economic News - The Fed will start buying short - term Treasury bonds as needed to maintain sufficient reserve supply, with the New York Fed planning to buy $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds in the next 30 days and expecting high - scale purchases in the coming months [1] - If SpaceX goes public at a $1.5 trillion valuation, Elon Musk's stake in the company could increase from $136 billion to over $625 billion [1] - Starcloud, an orbital data center startup, has achieved the first attempt to train a large - language model in space, with a satellite carrying NVIDIA's H100 GPU running an application based on Google's open - source model Gemma [1] - GE Vernova, one of the three oligarchs in the global gas turbine market, expects to sign 80 gigawatts of combined - cycle gas turbine contracts by the end of the year, and its gas turbine production capacity is almost sold out until 2029 [1] - The storage industry is facing unprecedented supply - demand tensions. DRAM shortages are expected to last until Q1 2027, with DDR demand growing 20.7% far exceeding supply growth, and NAND shortages expected to continue until Q3 2026 [1] - US AI five giants' capital expenditure in Q3 increased by 72.9% year - on - year, and except for Microsoft, the other four have negative free cash flows, with potential capital expenditure vulnerability worsening next year [1] - The former executive director of the Bank of Japan predicts that Governor Kazuo Ueda may raise interest rates up to four times before 2027, indicating a more aggressive tightening cycle [1] - There is an unprecedented surplus in crude oil supply, but Brent oil prices remain stable at $61 - 66 due to uncertainty about the effective supply from sanctioned countries. If sea - borne inventories move to land, oil prices may drop significantly [1] Global Economic Logic - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and resumed expanding its balance sheet by buying $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly [2] - Las Vegas gambling revenue decline shows a consumption trend similar to the early warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US issued a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relations with China and aiming to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows increased K - type differentiation among consumers, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while middle - and low - income families cut back [2] - ADP employment data shows that private companies cut 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023, with small businesses being the hardest - hit [2] - Japan's 10 - year government bond yield reached 1.96%, the highest since July 2007 [2] - Morgan Stanley expects AI - driven investment to expand the credit market, with the total issuance of investment - grade bonds surging to $2.25 trillion [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang believes China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - Morgan Stanley strategists estimate that at least $5 trillion is needed for the AI data center construction boom in the next five years [2] - US data center planned capacity has soared to 245 gigawatts, with a 45 - gigawatt increase in Q3 alone [2] - US retail sales in September increased only 0.2%, far below expectations, indicating a consumer spending cut [2] - Economists worry that large - scale corporate layoffs in the US are an economic warning signal [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound impact on major global assets, and the global economy is turning weak [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report gives a "turning weak" rating for the global economy in the macro and finance sector [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy is turning weak as the US has made a series of wrong policies and is regressing to the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Economic News - Goldman Sachs analysts warn that the declining consumer trend in Las Vegas gambling revenue is highly similar to the early warning signals before the 2008 financial crisis. If the weakness spreads to broader sectors like aviation, the Fed may consider more aggressive rate - cut policies [1] - The US releases a new version of the "National Security Strategy", giving up global hegemony, adjusting economic relations with China, and revitalizing its own economic autonomy. Market focus shifts from rate - cuts to the Fed potentially restarting large - scale bond purchases [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer K - shaped differentiation intensifies, with high - income consumers' spending remaining resilient while middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [2] - ADP employment data reveals that private enterprises in the US cut 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023. Small businesses are the hardest - hit by layoffs, with those having fewer than 50 employees cutting a total of 120,000 jobs [2] - Japan's 10 - year Treasury bond yield rises to 1.96%, the highest since July 2007 [2] - The JOLTS report shows that US hiring in October drops by over 4% month - on - month, layoffs rise to 1.85 million (the highest since early 2023), and the voluntary quit rate hits a five - year low. The labor market is slowing but not as severely as some alternative data sources suggest [1] - The Bank of Japan governor indicates that the central bank may not end after another rate hike, and the process of monetary policy normalization will continue [1] 3.2 AI - related News - Howard, the founder of Oak Capital, warns that AI may have a "terrifying" impact on employment, and the market's optimistic expectations about productivity improvement ignore social tolerance. AI has become a "winner - takes - all" arms race [1] - Morgan Stanley says the market is pricing in a grand narrative of a new AI infrastructure. Musk is envisioning SpaceX's entry into the space data center business, which is the fastest way to expand computing power in the next four years and has many advantages [1] - Google's AI infrastructure head says the company must double its AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 to 5 years to meet rising AI service demand [2] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - JPMorgan strategists think the construction boom of AI data centers in the next five years will require at least $5 trillion. The planned capacity of US data centers has soared to 245 gigawatts, with an increase of 45 gigawatts in the third quarter alone [2] - Big - Mo reaffirms that the investment driven by AI's unabated financing demand will boost the credit market, expecting the total issuance of investment - grade bonds to surge to $2.25 trillion [2] 3.3 Other News - Silver surges to an unprecedented $60 per ounce due to supply shortages as traders stay optimistic ahead of the Fed's interest - rate decision. It attracts investors seeking lower - cost safe - haven assets [1] - SpaceX plans to go public as early as the second half of 2026. If it sells 5% of its shares as planned, the fundraising scale will reach about $40 billion, driven by the growth of Starlink and the development of the Starship rocket [1] - Microsoft invests $17.5 billion in building AI infrastructure in India, the largest investment in Asia. It also plans to add over C$7.5 billion in investment in Canada in the next two years, increasing its total AI investment in Canada to C$19 billion, with new production capacity coming online in the second half of next year [1] - US retail sales in September grow only 0.2%, far lower than expected, indicating that Americans are cutting spending and the affordability crisis is hitting the consumer side. Economists worry that large - scale corporate layoffs in the US are an economic warning signal [2]

马来西亚棕榈油局 (MPOB)11月报告 2025年12月10日12:30公布 | 金十期货APP独家整理 进口量 圈内消息 THE 144 (-14.9%) 2.32 121.28 (-36.12%) -28.13%) 3.6 169.3 径林大华期货有限公司 GELIN DAHUA FUTURES CO., LTD. 2025年12月10日 市场快讯---库存大增出口萎缩 棕榈油承压下行 | | 马来西亚 | | --- | --- | | | 2025年 | | 单位:万吨 | 产量 | | 路透预期 | 198 | | | (-396) | | 2025年 | 193.6 | | 11月数据 | (-5.3%) | | 2025年 | 204.4 | | 10月数据 | | | 2024年 | 162.1 | | 11月数据 | | 马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）11月马棕供需数据利空来袭，库存增幅超预期，出口降幅超预期。马来西亚棕榈油局MPOB: 马来西亚11月棕榈油产量为1935510吨，环比减少5.30%。马来西亚11月棕榈油出口为1212814吨，环比减少28.13%。马来西 亚11月棕榈油库存 ...

市场快讯---库存大增出口萎缩 棕榈油承压下行 数据来源： 金十数据 | | 马来西亚 | | --- | --- | | | 2025年 | | 单位:万吨 | 产量 | | 路透预期 | 198 | | | (-396) | | 2025年 | 193.6 | | 11月数据 | (-5.3%) | | 2025年 | 204.4 | | 10月数据 | | | 2024年 | 162.1 | | 11月数据 | | 马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）11月马棕供需数据利空来袭，库存增幅超预期，出口降幅超预期。马来西亚棕榈油局MPOB: 马来西亚11月棕榈油产量为1935510吨，环比减少5.30%。马来西亚11月棕榈油出口为1212814吨，环比减少28.13%。马来西 亚11月棕榈油库存量为2835439吨,环比增长13.04%。马来西亚11月棕榈油进口为23176吨,环比减少36.12%。库存增幅超过 路透预测的266万吨将近17万吨,出口低于路透预期的144万吨23万吨。 2025年12月10日 明末度: 266 (7.78%) 283.5 (+1 3.04%) 246.4 研究员：刘锦 从业资格 F0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley upgraded China stocks to "Overweight" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The main indices of the two markets fluctuated and declined on Tuesday, with some short - term profit - taking funds exiting. In the future, the capital side will be under pressure, and the market is expected to operate weakly. It is recommended to gradually exit long positions in stock index futures and wait for new opportunities, and not to participate in stock index call options for the time being [1][3] - In 2026, the profit growth rate of all A - shares is expected to rise from 6% this year to 8%. Multiple factors will help the valuation of the A - share market rise further. The risk of a sharp rise in the Chinese stock market in 2026 is much higher than that of a sharp decline [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets fluctuated and declined, with the trading volume slightly increasing. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4598 points, down 23 points (-0.51%); the SSE 50 Index closed at 2997 points, down 21 points (-0.71%); the CSI 500 Index closed at 7121 points, down 51 points (-0.71%); the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7380 points, down 42 points (-0.57%). The net inflow of settled funds in CSI 1000 Index futures was 500 million yuan [1] - Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were communication ETFs, 5G ETFs, etc., and those with the highest losses were gold stock ETFs, industrial non - ferrous ETFs, etc. Among the sector indices of the two markets, those with the highest gains were components, consumer electronics, etc., and those with the highest losses were forestry, industrial metals, etc. [1] Important Information - Domestic AI company Zhipu AI officially announced the open - source of its core AI Agent model - AutoGLM, which may be the "intelligent driving moment" for the mobile phone industry [1] - From January to September 2025, global gas turbine orders increased by 54% year - on - year in GW terms, with US orders surging by over 200% [1] - Dalio believes that the global economy will face risks in the next one to two years due to the overlap of debt, political conflicts, and geopolitical cycles. Attention should be paid to the catalysts for the bursting of the AI bubble [1] - AR glasses Project Aura deeply integrates Gemini AI, and its founder believes that the incremental data brought by glasses may be the only way for AI to reach AGI [1] - The explosion of AI computing power has led to a shortage of automotive storage chips, with the satisfaction rate in 2026 possibly less than 50% [1] - The US President has approved NVIDIA to export its H200 AI chips to China, which may help NVIDIA regain billions of dollars in business [2] - SoftBank and NVIDIA are in talks to invest in Skild AI, a robot basic model developer, and the financing may value Skild AI at $14 billion [2] - Goldman Sachs clients are withdrawing their bullish views on AI and the US stock market, and investors' expectations for the S&P 500 Index in 2026 have become more conservative [2] - Analysts expect the Fed's interest rate cut decision this week to be accompanied by a hawkish tone, and the global market expects many countries to restart interest rate hikes in 2026 [2] - Technology giants' extension of the depreciation period of AI chips and other equipment can boost book profits, but the market's focus is on the long - term return on investment [2] - Six conservative justices of the US Supreme Court questioned a 1935 precedent, while three liberal justices warned against overthrowing the long - term position protection mechanism [2] - The US President announced $12 billion in agricultural aid funds from tariff revenues, to be distributed by the end of February 2026 [2] Market Logic - The main indices of the two markets fluctuated and declined on Tuesday, with some short - term profit - taking funds exiting. The chairman of the CSRC emphasized the role of the capital market, and analysts believe that the A - share market's valuation will rise in 2026. International funds are flowing into the Chinese stock market, and NVIDIA's CEO believes that China will win the AI competition [1][2] Future Outlook - The Politburo will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Global funds are increasing their positions in Chinese stocks. The CSRC chairman supports technological innovation. Morgan Stanley is optimistic about the Chinese stock market in 2026. Industry insiders believe there is no AI bubble in the next three years. Google plans to increase AI computing power. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has exceeded 90%. The US has adjusted its economic relations with China, which will accelerate the flow of global funds to the Chinese capital market. The market is expected to operate weakly [3] Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, gradually exit long positions and wait for new opportunities [3] - For stock index option trading, do not participate in stock index call options for the time being [3]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周一螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘继续收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国 | | | | | 共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会议指出， | | | | | 明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽 | | | | | 松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度， | | | | | 切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 | | | | | 2、海关总署最新数据显示，2025 年 11 月中国出口汽车 81.8 万辆；1-11 月累计出 | | | | | 口 733.1 万辆 ...

| | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 09 日星期周二 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12 月 8 日，美豆新作种植面积预估增加，对华出口放缓，美豆油下跌带动国内豆油 | | | | | 走弱，澳菜籽开榨在即，菜籽油跌幅进一步加速，棕榈油跟随下下跌。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8032 元/吨，按收盘价日环下跌 0.59%，日增仓 7193 | | | | | 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 7952 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.75%，日增 | | | | | 仓 2803 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 8702 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.6 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 9 日星期二 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | | | | | 铁矿: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周一铁矿收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国 | | | | | 共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。会议强调，做好明年经济工作，明年经济工 | | | | | 作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政 | | | | | 策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升 | | | | | 宏观经济治理效能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培 | | | | | 育壮大新动能；坚持改革 ...