Report Summary 1. Core View - The recent sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices is due to two reasons: the market's expectation of supply contraction has increased after Jiangte Motor's announcement of the proposed cancellation of mining rights, and the previous day's market rumor that the resumption of production at Shixiaowo has encountered obstacles again, leading to the failure of the supply release expectation. The main contract closed at 108,620 yuan/ton, with a gain of 7.61%. It is expected that lithium carbonate will experience a correction after short - term high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 115,000 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Specific Information Mining Rights Cancellation - On December 17, 2025, Jiangte Motor announced that the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau website recently released a notice to cancel 27 mining rights, including its Jiangxi Yifeng County Shiziling Mining Area lithium - bearing porcelain stone mine. Among the 27 mining licenses, 17 are for ceramic clay mines, 7 are for limestone, and others include kaolin and quartzite. The expiration of these licenses has little impact on the lithium carbonate market supply, and previous similar announcements in Yichun have not significantly affected the market [5]. Price Fluctuation Reasons - The sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices after the announcement is due to market sentiment being affected by Jiangte's announcement and media reports, which increased the expectation of supply contraction, and the previous day's rumor of production resumption obstacles at Shixiaowo, which also contributed to the price increase [6]. Market Outlook - As the lc2601 contract is about to enter the delivery month, the short - term market is expected to experience high - level fluctuations followed by a correction. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 115,000 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has issued a market risk warning, and attention should also be paid to the weekly inventory data released on Thursday. If the de - stocking speed slows down or fails to meet expectations, market sentiment may decline [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices is due to the market's increased expectation of supply contraction after Jiangte Motor's announcement of the proposed cancellation of mining rights and the disappointment of supply release expectations caused by the rumored resumption delay at Shixiawo. The main contract closed at 108,620 yuan/ton, up 7.61%. It is expected that lithium carbonate will experience a callback after short - term high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 115,000 yuan/ton. Also, be aware of policy risks from the exchange, weekly inventory data, and the risk of a sharp fall due to concentrated liquidation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market News - The supply situation of lithium carbonate is still uncertain, and there is a need to be vigilant about policy cooling while the market sentiment is high [1]. Company Announcement - On December 17, 2025, Jiangte Motor announced that Yichun Natural Resources Bureau planned to cancel 27 mining rights, including its Yifeng County Lion Ridge lithium - bearing porcelain stone mine. The expiration of these 27 mining licenses has little actual impact on the lithium carbonate market supply [5]. Market Analysis - The sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices is caused by the market's expectation of supply contraction and the disappointment of supply release expectations. The main contract closed at 108,620 yuan/ton, up 7.61%. It is expected to experience a callback after short - term high - level fluctuations, with the resistance level of 115,000 yuan/ton [6]. Risk Warnings and Suggestions - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued a market risk warning. Attention should be paid to policy risks of margin adjustment and position limit by the exchange in case of continuous sharp rise. Also, pay attention to the weekly inventory data on Thursday, as a slower - than - expected de - stocking speed may lead to a decline in market sentiment. Be vigilant against the risk of a sharp fall due to concentrated liquidation [7].

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 18 日星期四 Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.90%报 4371.40 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 4.92%报 66.44 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.53%报 982.48 元/克，沪银涨 3.93%报 15594 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 12 月 17 日，全球最大的黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Trust 持仓量增加 0.86 吨， 至为 1052.54 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上一交易日保 持不变，当前持仓量为 16018.29 吨。 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 24.4%，维持 利率不变的概率为 75.6%。到明年 3 ...

Morning session notice 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周三夜盘主力合约 | 2605 | 期货价格上涨 | 28 | 元至 | 2172 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 | | | | | | | | 价格上涨 | 27 | 元至 | 2130 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 | 10697 | 手至 | 54.7 | 万手，空 | 头持仓减少 | 14518 | 手至 | 64.59 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 89.8%，环比+0.8%。海外甲醇开工率 | 62%，环比-1.8%。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 | 121.88 | 万吨，较上一期数据减少 | 1.56 | 万吨。 | 其中，华 ...

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约全线高开，早盘震荡上行，午后横向波动，截至收盘 30 年 期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.63%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.10%，5 年期 TF2603 | | | | | 上涨 0.06%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.01%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 468 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 1898 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净回笼 1430 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周三银行间资金市场隔夜利率维持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.44%，上一交易日加 | | | | | 权平均 1.45%。 | | | | | 3、现券市场：周三银行间国债现券收盘收益率较上一交易日下行，2 年期国债到期 | | | | TL、T、 | 收益率下行 0. ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 18 日 星期四 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三两市主要指数早盘震荡整理，午后快速拉升，技术形态明显修复。两市成交额 1.81 万亿元，稍有放大。沪深 300 指数收 4579 点，涨 82 点，涨幅 1.83%；上证 50 | | | | | 指数收 2991 点，涨 36 点，涨幅 1.25%；中证 500 指数收 7137 点，涨 136 点，涨幅 | | | | | 1.95%；中证 1000 指数收 7288 点，涨 107 点，涨幅 1.49%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅 | | | | | 居前的是通信 ETF、创业板人工智能 ETF 南方、通信设备 ETF、5G ETF、稀有金属 | | | | | ETF，跌幅居前的是航空航天 ETF、通用航空 ETF、卫星 ETF ...

重要事项: 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 17 日星期三 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1067.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.61%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 | | | | | 收于 1514.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.73%。昨日夜盘，Jm2605 收于 1061.0，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘下跌 0.61%；J2601 合约收于 1517.0，环比日盘收盘上涨 0.17%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、明年要采取更具针对性的措施，进一步增强统一大市场的建设成效，实现各类资源 | | | | | 要素高效配置。市场层面，要持续完善市场运行规则。政府层面，要持续规范地方政府 | | | | | 经济促进行为。企业层面，要深入整治"内卷式"竞争。 | | | | | 2、明年 ...

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周二尿素主力合约 | 2601 | 价格 | 1630 | 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 | 1670 | 元/吨。持仓 | | | | | | | | | | | | 方面，多头持仓增加 | 234 | 手至 | 17.86 | 万手，空头持仓增加 | 4367 | 手至 | 19.34 | 万手。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 | 20.03 | 万吨，较上一工作日-0.27 | 万吨；较去年同期增 | 加 | 1.18 | 万吨；今日开工率 | 82.82%，较去年同期 | 83.38%下降升 | 0.56%。 | | | | | | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 | 123.42 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 17 日 星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美国政府将经济复苏押注 AI 生产力提升，以解决联邦债务。知名投资机构警告， | | | | 若 | AI 未能兑现承诺，美国将陷入深度衰退和主权债务危机，其破坏性远超 2008 年 | | | | | 金融危机。因政府作为最后买家自身陷入困境，整个金融体系将失去安全网。 | | | | | 2、债券期权市场的仓位正在发生变化，部分交易员开始布局，押注市场情绪可能 | | | | | 转向预期第一季度就会降息。目前市场定价显示，下一次降息要到明年年中才会被 | | | | | 完全计入，第二次降息则预期在 10 月。 | | | | | 3、哈塞特势头不稳， ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二国债期货主力合约多数高开、TL 低开，早盘震荡上行，午后略有回落，全天波 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 动幅度较小，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 下跌 0.19%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.05%，5 年期 TF2603 上涨 0.03%，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.02%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 1353 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 1173 亿元逆 | | | | | 回购到期，当日合计净投放 180 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周二银行间资金市场隔夜利率维持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.45%，上一交易日加 | | | | | 权平均 1.44%。 | ...