Morning session notice 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 | 8.97%，同比下降 | 8.95%。 | 8、11 | 月 | 11 | 日（周二），研究机构 | CGS | International | Research | 表示，植物油市场受到需 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 求增加支撑，这将导致毛棕榈油价格进一步上涨。 | 其并称，预计 | 2026 | 年全球生物柴油需求 | 将强劲增长，给全球植物油价格提供结构性支撑。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 现货方面：截止 | 11 | 月 | 28 | 日，张家港豆油现货均价 | 8530 | 元/吨，环比 | 0 | 元/吨；基差 | 286 | 元/吨，环比下跌 | 20 | 元/吨；广东棕榈油现货均价 | 8390 | 元/吨，环比上涨 | 100 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 1 日星期一 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货收涨 1.59%报 4256.4 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货收涨 6.06%报 57.085 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.97%报 959.82 元/克，沪银涨 5.17%报 13191 元/千 克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 11 月 28 日，全球最大的黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Trust 持仓量为 1045.43 吨， 较前一个交易日维持不变。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 增加 28.21 吨，当前持仓量为 15610.54 吨。。 2、据 CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 86.4%， 维持利率不变 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bullish [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market has an international supply situation with increased production in Brazil and a good harvest in the US. Domestically, new - cotton processing is faster, but textile companies are cautious about restocking due to weak orders and sufficient raw - material inventory. The recommended trading strategy is to close the long - call options on the 01 contract and hold the long - call options with a strike price of 13,500 yuan/ton on the 05 contract [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume is 284,007 lots, and the open interest is 954,257 lots. The settlement prices for January, May, and September are 13,635 yuan/ton, 13,595 yuan/ton, and 13,715 yuan/ton respectively. The ICE December contract settlement price is 62.77, up 34 points; the March contract is 64.57, up 34 points; the May contract is 65.75, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 35,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 24, spinning enterprises in the Bortala region of northern Xinjiang purchased new machine - picked cotton of grade 31, double 29, with impurity within 2.8%. The basis transaction price of the 2601 contract is 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price is 14,600 - 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 - 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - In August 2025, the US cotton product import volume was 1.499 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.68% [2] - As of November 16, the US cotton picking progress was 71%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [2] - In August 2025, the US textile and clothing import volume was 9.789 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%; the import value was 9.53 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 6.13% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [2] - On November 24, the trading volume and open interest of cotton yarn futures both increased, and the price rose while the spot price remained stable. Some spinning enterprises reported that the downstream sales had slowed down, the finished - product inventory had increased slightly, and the off - season atmosphere in the market had intensified [2] Market Logic - Internationally, Brazil's cotton production is expected to reach 4.11 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 11.1%), and the export shipment volume remains high; the US production has been adjusted up to 3.07 million tons, and the harvest progress is slightly faster than the annual average. Domestically, the new - cotton processing progress is faster than the same period last year, and the improved quality indicators have significantly increased the sales rate. However, textile enterprises are still cautious about restocking due to weak orders and sufficient raw - material inventory [2] Trading Strategy - Close the long - call options on the 01 contract and hold the long - call options with a strike price of 13,500 yuan/ton on the 05 contract [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is "oscillating bearish" [1] Core View - The overall performance of the coking coal spot market remained weak last week. The profitability of steel mills continued to shrink, production enthusiasm was average, and pig iron output declined steadily. The first round of price cuts in the coke market started last Friday and is expected to be implemented this week. The double - coking futures led the decline in the spot market. Although the downward range slowed down last week, there is obvious support below due to the winter storage expectation in December. In the short term, double - coking may oscillate [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the closing price of the coking coal main contract was 1,067.0 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.26%. The closing price of the coke main contract was 1,574.5 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.81% [1] Important Information - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1] - In October, the bond market issued a total of 635.746 billion yuan of various bonds. Treasury bonds issued 116.955 billion yuan, local government bonds issued 56.047 billion yuan, financial bonds issued 80.108 billion yuan, corporate credit - related bonds issued 118.362 billion yuan, credit asset - backed securities issued 3.434 billion yuan, and inter - bank certificates of deposit issued 256.49 billion yuan [1] - Shanxi officially released a new "Regulations on Ecological and Environmental Protection in Shanxi Province", which for the first time established a special chapter on "green and low - carbon development", clearly requiring the promotion of green and low - carbon transformation of energy, emission reduction and carbon reduction in key areas, and the establishment of a coal consumption total control system [1] Market Logic - Last week, the coking coal spot market was still weak. The profitability of steel mills continued to shrink, production enthusiasm was average, and pig iron output declined steadily. The first round of price cuts in the coke market started last Friday and is expected to be implemented this week. The double - coking futures led the decline in the spot market. The downward range slowed down last week, and there is obvious support below due to the winter storage expectation in December. In the short term, double - coking may oscillate [1] Trading Strategy - The support level of the coking coal futures has moved down. The support for the main contract is 1,030, and the support for the Jm2605 contract is 1,100 [1]

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周五螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收涨， | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、工信部：智能网联汽车将形成万亿元级消费领域。 | | | | | 2、 中钢协：2025 年 11 月焦煤长协煤钢联动浮动值，比 10 月上涨 78 元。 | | | | | 3、重庆：支持使用专项债券收回收购符合条件的存量闲置土地。 | | | | | 4、全联冶金商会会长龚盛强调，在全球贸易壁垒加剧、传统需求收缩的情况下， | | | | | 必须苦练内功创新发展，以自身的确定性应对外部的不确定性。民营钢铁企业要加 | | | | | 大研发投入，突破关键技术；推进智能化改造，提升生产效率；深化绿色化发展， | | | | | 构建绿色制造体系。 | | | | | 5、国家统计局数据显示，11 月份我国制造业 PMI 为 49.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个百 | ...

研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周五两市主要指数走势分化，半导体设备板块领涨，随着 AI 关注点转向应用，成 | | | | | 长类指数逐步成为焦点。两市成交额 1.58 万亿元，继续缩量。沪深 300 指数收 4526 | | | | | 点，涨 11，涨幅 0.25%；上证 50 指数收 2969 点，跌 2 点，涨幅-0.09%；中证 500 | | | | | 指数收 7031 点，涨 80 点，涨幅 1.15%；中证 1000 指数收 7334 点，涨 76 点，涨幅 | | | | | 1.06%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是科创半导体 ETF、稀有金属 ETF、卫星 ETF、 | | | | | 半导体设备 ETF、新能源车 ETF，跌幅居前的是中药 ETF、银行 ETF 基金、创新药 | | | | | ETF 华泰柏瑞。两市板块指数中涨 ...

研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 1 日 星期一 早盘提示 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、摩根大通亚洲主管、全球新兴市场股票策略联席主管 Rajiv Batra 领导的团队 | | | | | 将中国股票评级上调为"超配"，并表示相比潜在的下行风险，明年出现大幅上涨 | | | | | 的可能性更高。近期中国资产出现的调整，为入场提供了有吸引力的时点。 | | | | | 2、受美元走弱和 AI 投资热潮推动，摩根士丹利预计 2026 年新兴市场资产的回报 | | | | | 率达 8%，美银则看好明年新兴市场的本币债券超 10%收益。美国 AI 资本支出 2028 | | | | | 年将达 6280 亿美元，该影响通过科技出口和金属价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical crises, and central bank gold purchases, the prices of gold and silver showed significant upward trends. Looking ahead to 2026, the prospects for the precious metals market remain optimistic, with continued fiscal expansion in major countries, expected further interest - rate cuts by the Fed, and the existence of stagflation risks in the US, all of which may support investment demand for precious metals [2][158]. Summary According to the Directory Part I: Precious Metals Market Review - **Gold Market Review** - **Historical Gold Market Review**: Gold had three major bull markets in the past 60 years. From 1971 - 1980, the price rose from $35/ounce to $850/ounce; from 2001 - 2011, it increased from $255/ounce to $1920/ounce; and from 2016 - 2025, it reached over $4000/ounce [5][6][8]. - **2025 Gold Market Review**: COMEX gold futures rose from $2758/ounce at the end of 2024 to a high of $4398/ounce on October 20, a cumulative increase of over 59%. SHFE gold futures also reached a record high of 1005.08 yuan/gram on October 21 [2][12]. - **Silver Market Review** - **Historical Silver Market Review**: Over the past 60 years, silver prices have fluctuated significantly. From 1971 - 1980, they soared from $1.5/ounce to $49.45/ounce; from 2001 - 2011, they increased from $4/ounce to $49/ounce; and from 2021 - 2025, they broke through $50/ounce [17][19]. - **2025 Silver Market Review**: COMEX silver rose from $30.5/ounce at the end of 2024 to a high of $55.13/ounce on November 13, an increase of 78%. SHFE silver reached a high of 12664 yuan/kg on November 13, a maximum increase of 67% [21]. Part II: Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics on Precious Metals Prices - **Impact of the US Economy on Precious Metals Prices** - **Impact of the US Interest - Rate Cut Cycle**: The expectation of the US interest - rate cut cycle supported the sharp rise in precious metals prices. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates twice, which reduced the yield of traditional assets and increased the attractiveness of gold [29]. - **Impact of the US Economy**: In 2025, the US GDP was expected to grow by 2% year - on - year, with core CPI remaining around 3.1%. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, and the manufacturing PMI was below 50. The service industry drove the US economy to maintain resilience. The "big and beautiful" tax and expenditure bill worsened the US's medium - and long - term fiscal outlook, consolidating the bullish trend of gold [31][34]. - **Impact of the US Dollar Index Trend**: The US dollar index was negatively correlated with precious metals prices. In 2025, the weakening US dollar index supported precious metals prices, but in 2026, its support may weaken [43]. - **Impact of Central Bank Gold Purchases on Precious Metals Prices**: Global central banks continued to increase their gold reserves in 2025. In the third quarter, the net gold purchases reached 220 tons, a 28% increase from the second quarter and a 10% increase year - on - year. Most central banks still plan to increase their gold reserves in the future [44][48]. - **Impact of Geopolitical Crises on Precious Metals Prices**: Geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East situation, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Israel - Palestine conflict increased market uncertainty and risk - aversion sentiment, driving investors to turn to gold. These events also affected the supply and demand pattern of gold [53]. Part III: Precious Metals Supply and Demand Analysis - **Gold Supply and Demand Analysis** - **Gold Supply Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw - material gold production was 271.782 tons, a 1.39% increase year - on - year, and imported raw - material gold production was 121.149 tons, an 8.94% increase. The global total gold supply was 3717.4 tons [54]. - **Gold Demand Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the global total gold demand was 3717.4 tons, a slight increase. China's gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a 7.95% decrease year - on - year [60]. - **Gold Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, SHF gold inventory continued to rise, especially after September, while COMEX gold inventory was stable after the first - quarter increase and gradually declined slightly in October [66]. - **Silver Supply and Demand Analysis** - **Silver Supply Analysis**: It was expected that the global silver supply in 2025 would increase by 2% year - on - year to 1030.6 million ounces, mainly due to a 2% increase in mined silver [71]. - **Silver Demand Analysis**: It was expected that the global silver demand in 2025 would decrease by 1% year - on - year to 1148.3 million ounces, with a 0.5% decrease in industrial demand, a 6% decrease in jewelry demand, and a 7% increase in investment demand [74]. - **Silver Inventory Analysis**: SHFE silver inventory decreased from a high at the beginning of 2025, then increased significantly from late May to early July, and then decreased. COMEX silver inventory increased in the first quarter and then fluctuated. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory also showed a downward trend [75]. Part IV: Precious Metals Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis - **Gold Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis** - **Domestic Gold Futures - Spot Arbitrage Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE gold futures active contracts was mostly negative, with positive spreads appearing in October, presenting arbitrage opportunities [84]. - **Gold Inter - Period Arbitrage Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE gold futures active and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with opportunities for inter - period arbitrage when the spread decreased significantly [88]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio Analysis**: In 2025, the gold - silver ratio fluctuated sharply. After a significant decline from the high, its future direction was difficult to predict [89]. - **SHFE Gold Position and Capital Inflow Analysis**: In 2025, domestic institutional net positions in SHFE gold futures were mostly long. The net long positions decreased during the rapid rise in gold prices from September to October [94]. - **Silver Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis** - **Silver Basis Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE silver futures active contracts was mostly negative, with positive spreads appearing in October and then returning to negative [105]. - **Silver Inter - Period Spread Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE silver futures active and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with significant fluctuations during the year [109]. - **SHFE Silver Position and Capital Inflow Analysis**: In 2025, domestic institutional net positions in SHFE silver futures were long. Capital inflow was obvious from January to mid - June, then fluctuated horizontally, and increased again from September to early October [114]. Part V: Precious Metals Options Analysis and Strategies - The implied volatility of gold and silver options has increased in the past two years. The put - call ratio of gold options indicates a bullish market, while the put - call ratio of silver options shows that investors may be more inclined to buy put options in October to avoid risks [126]. - Strategies include buying at - the - money call options when expecting price increases and increased volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options when expecting price increases but decreased volatility, selling strangles when implied volatility is high, and buying at - the - money straddles when expecting significant market fluctuations [127]. Part VI: Precious Metals Seasonal Analysis - Based on a five - year seasonal analysis, precious metals are more likely to rise in April and October and more likely to fall in June [144]. Part VII: Outlook on Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Technical Analysis - **Fed's 2026 Interest - Rate Cut Rhythm and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2026, with two possible cuts in the first half of the year, which is beneficial to precious metals prices [154]. - **US Government Policy Orientation in 2026 and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: The US economy is expected to grow in 2026, with a high fiscal deficit rate. If the impact of tariffs on inflation is one - time, inflation will have less restraint on interest - rate cuts [155]. - **Impact of Gold Supply - Demand Balance on Gold Prices**: In 2025, gold demand growth was mainly driven by investment demand. In the third quarter, investment demand increased by 47% year - on - year. In 2026, the gold market outlook remains optimistic [158]. - **Technical Analysis of Precious Metals Price Trends**: Technically, COMEX gold has strong support at $3500, and COMEX silver has strong support at $40. SHFE gold has support at 780 yuan, and SHFE silver has support at 9400 yuan [161]. Part VIII: Outlook on Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the global macro - game pattern remains unchanged. The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support precious metals prices. Buying on dips can be considered as a trading strategy [174].

宏观与金融衍生品分册 中国期货衍生品市场年报 宏观继续稳增长，利率延续震荡市 ——2025 年市场回顾与 2026 年展望 格林大华期货研究院 刘 洋 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 摘要 1 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年国债期货主力品种在 1 月和 2 月初创出高点，然后连续下跌至 3 月中旬止跌反 弹。4 月上旬，因美方宣布加征对等关税消息国债期货上涨，随后横向震荡。7、8 月 A 股强势连续上涨，推动资本市场风险偏好上升，国债期货合约价格整体回落。9 月 国债期货主力合约中短期品种宽幅震荡，超长期 30 年期国债期货主力合约继续较大 幅度下跌。国庆节后，A 股股指在高位震荡缓步回落，国债期货反弹。央行行长 10 月 27 日在金融街论坛年会上宣布，将恢复公开市场国债买卖操作，助力国债期货反弹， 进入 11 月国债期货有所回落。 2025 年前三季度中国 GDP 累计同比增长 5.2%，预期全年增长大概率可以实现全年目标 5%。5 月央行宣布，下调金融机构存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，同时将公开市场 7 天 逆回购利率调降 10 个基点，降至 1.4%，全年货币政策总体保持流动性宽松。 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员：张毅驰 从业资格：F03108196 交易咨询资格：Z0021480 联系方式：15018531496 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 沪铜主力合约 CU2601 夜盘收盘价 87050 元/吨，较上一交易日夜盘收盘价下跌 0.0 5%。沪铜次主力合约 CU2602 夜盘收于 87080 元/吨，跌幅 0.05%。截止北京时间 2 | | | | | 06:00，COMEX 铜主力合约 收盘价为 美元/磅（按汇率 025-11-28 HGZ25E 5.1155 | | | | | 7.0806 换算为 79852 元/吨），感恩节休市中。LME 铜主力合约 CA03ME 收于 1093 | | | | | 0 美元/吨（按汇率 7.0806 换算为 77391 元/吨），跌幅 0.21%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、11 月 27 日，国家统计局数据，1-10 月有色金属冶炼 ...