1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the edible oil sector, due to the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, external macro - risks are uncontrollable, so it is advisable to conservatively observe the market and engage in intraday trading. For the two - meal sector, although the rise in US soybeans drives cost increases and domestic import policies tighten, it is not recommended to chase the upward trend significantly, and existing long positions should be gradually reduced [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock (Three Oils) 3.1.1 Market Review - On February 12th, before the Spring Festival holiday, the exchange raised margins, more investors left the market, and the weakening of the Malaysian market dragged down the market. The Dalian palm oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices of various oil contracts decreased to varying degrees, and the trading volume also changed [1]. 3.1.2 Important News - On February 12th, the settlement price of the active March crude oil futures contract on NYMEX was $62.84 per barrel, down $1.79 or 2.77%. US crude inventories increased by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels last week. The IEA stated that this year's global oil demand growth rate will be lower than expected [1]. - The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, with India canceling or reducing tariffs on US industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the US reducing the so - called reciprocal tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [1]. - The US government is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, generally following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to impose penalties on imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons [1]. - The January supply - demand report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) was generally positive. Malaysia's palm oil imports, production, and inventory decreased, while exports increased [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the EIA's downward adjustment of global crude oil demand led to a 3% drop in international crude oil prices. However, multiple positive factors such as the US - India trade agreement, potential increases in US soybean and soybean oil exports to India, and the improvement of domestic biodiesel policies in the US supported the US soybean oil to maintain a good upward trend. The Malaysian palm oil market was generally positive, but due to the approaching Spring Festival, the market was cautious and the overall trend was flat. For domestic soybean oil, factory production was high in the recent two weeks, and the reduction in inventory was limited. The spot market was basically over before the festival, and the basis quote was mainly stable. After the festival, the basis quote would be supported during the replenishment period but would face pressure later. For palm oil, the fundamentals were positive, but the expected high inventory put pressure on the market. For rapeseed oil, there was a lack of new topics in the market, and it was expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern before the festival [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: It is advisable to conservatively observe the market and engage in intraday trading before the Spring Festival. The report provides support and pressure levels for various contracts [2]. - Arbitrage trading: None at present [2]. 3.2 Two Meals (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On February 12th, driven by the rise in the external market, short basis and long futures positions, the two - meal market continued to rebound. The closing prices of various contracts increased to varying degrees, and the trading volume also changed [2]. 3.2.2 Important News - The February USDA soybean supply - demand report was generally bearish, slightly increasing Brazil's production and global soybean inventory. However, the increase in US soybean exports pushed up the US soybean futures price. The report also provided data on the US, Brazil, and Argentina's soybean production, exports, and inventory [3]. - As of the end of the 6th week of 2026, domestic import soybean inventory decreased, while domestic soybean meal inventory and contract volume increased. Domestic imported rapeseed inventory decreased, and imported rapeseed meal inventory and contract volume increased [3]. - The national grain trading center's soybean auction on January 13th had a 100% transaction rate [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the improved trade prospects of US soybeans pushed up the US soybean futures price. For domestic soybean meal, as the Spring Festival approached, some institutions adjusted their positions for risk - avoidance reasons. The market showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and there was a short - term rebound. The spot price of the oil refinery increased slightly, and the market was light. For rapeseed meal, domestic oil refineries were actively buying rapeseed in the far - month. Considering the expected increase in imports and the end of pre - festival stocking, the domestic two - meal market was expected to have a weak and narrow - range shock pattern before the festival and was likely to face downward pressure after the festival [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - It is not recommended to chase the upward trend significantly, and existing long positions should be gradually reduced. The report provides support and pressure levels for various contracts. Arbitrage trading: None at present [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Corn: Interval [1] - Pig: Interval [1] - Egg: Wait-and-see [3] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Short - term, near the Spring Festival, the spot market is lightly traded with narrow - range fluctuations; medium - term, there is still demand for building inventories after the Spring Festival, maintaining a wide - range trading idea; long - term, it follows the pricing logic of substitution + planting cost, and policy orientation should be focused on [1] - **Pig**: Short - term, near the holiday, the supply is abundant and consumption support weakens, with continuous supply pressure; medium - term, supply will increase before March and ease from April; long - term, supply pressure exists before August, but the far - month contract expectations shift due to the lower - than - expected decline in sow inventory at the end of 2025 [1][3] - **Egg**: Short - term, near the Spring Festival, most areas stop quoting, and there is still an expectation of post - festival spot price decline; medium - term, the decline in egg - laying hen inventory is limited, and the supply pressure is postponed; long - term, the continuous increase in egg - laying hen farming scale may limit the price increase space, waiting for the process of capacity reduction driven by over - culling [3] 3. Summary by Directory Corn **Market Review** - The night - session of corn futures rose first and then fell yesterday. As of the night - session close, the main 2605 contract rose 0.13% to 2322 yuan/ton [1] **Important Information** - Near the holiday, spot purchases and sales are light, and some enterprises stop purchasing. The purchase price of deep - processing enterprises fluctuates slightly. The purchase price in Northeast China is 2169 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the average purchase price in North China is 2311 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The prices at north - south ports are stable. The purchase price of second - grade corn with 15% moisture at Jinzhou Port is 2280 - 2300 yuan/ton, and the transaction price at Shekou Port is 2420 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1] - As of February 12, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts increased by 5000 lots from the previous trading day, with a cumulative total of 88570 lots [1] - In the 6th week, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China is 68% (65% last week, 59% average in the past three years); in North China, it is 57% (55% last week, 56% average in the past three years) [1] **Market Logic** - Short - term, near the Spring Festival, the spot market is lightly traded with narrow - range fluctuations; medium - term, there is still demand for building inventories after the Spring Festival, maintaining a wide - range trading idea; long - term, it follows the pricing logic of substitution + planting cost, and policy orientation should be focused on [1] **Trading Strategy** - Medium - term, maintain a wide - range trading idea and do not chase long. For the 2603 contract, the short - term support is 2250 - 2260, and the short - term pressure is 2310 - 2320; for the 2605 contract, the short - term support is 2260 - 2270, and the short - term pressure is 2330. Near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position to avoid holiday risks [1] Pig **Market Review** - The pig futures fluctuated strongly yesterday. The main 2605 contract rose 0.13% to 11540 yuan/ton [1] **Important Information** - The pig price fluctuates slightly. The national average pig price is 11.47 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day. It is expected that the pig price will be stable tomorrow morning in different regions [1] - At the end of December, the number of fertile sows is 39.61 million, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, 101.6% of the normal inventory [1] - From January to September 2025, the number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month (only decreased in July), corresponding to an increasing trend in the number of pig slaughter before March this year; from October to December 2025, the number of new - born piglets decreased for three consecutive months, by 1%, 0.8%, and 1.2% respectively, corresponding to a relief in supply pressure from April [1] - As of February 12, the average slaughter weight of pigs is 124.11 kg, a decrease of 0.16 kg from the previous week [1] - On February 12, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is 0.52 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] - On February 12, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts increased by 300 lots from the previous day, with a total of 1027 lots [1] - On February 6, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued an implementation opinion, mentioning to strengthen the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity and promote market supply - demand matching [1][3] **Market Logic** - Short - term, near the holiday, the supply is abundant and consumption support weakens, with continuous supply pressure; medium - term, supply will increase before March and ease from April; long - term, supply pressure exists before August, but the far - month contract expectations shift due to the lower - than - expected decline in sow inventory at the end of 2025 [1][3] **Trading Strategy** - Last week, it was continuously suggested that short positions in near - month contracts enter the profit - taking area, and short positions in far - month contracts test the lower support. For the 2603 contract, the support at 10500 has been verified, and the pressure is 11000; for the 2605 contract, the support at 11500 has been verified, and the pressure is 11750; for the 2607 contract, the support at 12000 has been verified, and the pressure is 12400; for the 2609 contract, the support at 13000 has been verified, and the pressure is 13300 - 13400. Near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position to avoid holiday risks [3] Egg **Market Review** - The egg futures strengthened across the board yesterday. The main 2604 contract rose 1.56% to 3200 yuan/500KG [3] **Important Information** - Near the holiday, the trading volume in the main production areas has been shrinking. The egg quotation and related data have been suspended and are expected to resume on February 24 [3] - As of February 12, the weekly culling age of old hens is 497 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [3] - In January, the number of laying hens in production is about 1.342 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 4.11%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in February is 1.331 billion [3] **Market Logic** - Short - term, near the Spring Festival, most areas stop quoting, and there is still an expectation of post - festival spot price decline; medium - term, the decline in egg - laying hen inventory is limited, and the supply pressure is postponed; long - term, the continuous increase in egg - laying hen farming scale may limit the price increase space, waiting for the process of capacity reduction driven by over - culling [3] **Trading Strategy** - Last week, it was continuously suggested that short positions in the early stage of the 2603 contract enter the profit - taking area. This week, it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the culling and molting rhythm around the Spring Festival. For the 2603 contract, the support is 2880 - 2900; for the 2604 contract, the support is 3100 - 3120; for the 2605 contract, the support is 3300 - 3350; for the 2606 contract, the support is 3200; for the 2607 contract, the support is 3400 - 3450. Near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position to avoid holiday risks [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, iron ore futures closed lower, and the night - session also ended down [1] - The supply of five major steel products this week was 7.9406 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 258,400 tons or 3.2%; the total inventory was 14.4273 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0498 million tons or 7.8%; the weekly apparent consumption was 6.8908 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.4% [1] - This week, the production of rebar, hot - rolled coils and the five major steel products decreased, while the inventory increased, which was in line with expectations. The shipment and arrival of iron ore this period both decreased, as did the port iron ore trading volume. The daily output of molten iron this week was 2.3049 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 191,000 tons [1] - It is expected that the 750 level will still be a strong support for the iron ore main contract before the holiday. Be vigilant against possible concentrated liquidation on the last trading day, which may trigger an unexpected market. It is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market during the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Iron ore futures closed lower on Thursday and in the night - session [1] Important Information - The National Energy Administration stated that in 2025, the new installed capacity of wind and solar power generation in China exceeded 430 million kilowatts, setting a new historical high [1] Market Logic - This week, the production of rebar, hot - rolled coils and the five major steel products decreased, while the inventory increased, which was in line with expectations. The shipment and arrival of iron ore this period both decreased, and the port iron ore trading volume also declined. The daily output of molten iron this week was 2.3049 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 191,000 tons [1] Trading Strategy - It is expected that the 750 level will still be a strong support for the iron ore main contract before the holiday. Be vigilant against possible concentrated liquidation on the last trading day, which may trigger an unexpected market. It is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market during the holiday [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is "interval oscillation" [1] 2. Report's Core View - Before the Spring Festival, the coking coal spot market was sluggish with a double - weak supply - demand situation. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work at coal mines may be faster than that of downstream steel mills, so the supply side may be stronger than the demand side. Investors are advised to pay attention to post - Spring Festival macro policies and coal import changes and control risks by holding light or no positions during the festival [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1,120.0 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the daytime session opening; the main coke contract J2605 closed at 1,664.0 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the daytime session opening. In last night's session, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,121.0 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the daytime session closing, and the coke main contract closed at 1,665.0 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the daytime session closing [1] 3.2 Important Information - In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, with core CPI rising 0.8% year - on - year; PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month for four consecutive months, with the increase expanding by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and fell 1.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 794.06 million tons, a weekly decrease of 25.84 million tons or 3.2%; the total inventory was 1,442.73 million tons, a weekly increase of 104.98 million tons or 7.8%; the weekly apparent consumption was 689.08 million tons, a 9.4% decrease from the previous week [1] - As of February 11, the cumulative coal storage at the Ganqimaodu Port reached 6.0448 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.39%, and the coal import volume exceeded 6 billion tons 23 days earlier than in 2025 [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Before the Spring Festival, the domestic coking coal supply and demand were in a double - weak pattern. After the Spring Festival, coal mines may resume work faster than downstream steel mills, and the supply side may be stronger than the demand side. Attention should be paid to post - Spring Festival macro policies and coal import changes [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold light or no positions during the festival. After the festival, pay attention to the resumption of work rhythm of steel mills [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "oscillating" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the production of rebar, hot-rolled coils, and five major steel products decreased, inventories increased, and demand continued to decline, which was in line with expectations. The spot steel prices were stable on February 12th, with sluggish trading, and the spot market was basically closed, waiting for post - holiday demand recovery. As the Spring Festival approaches, trading volume has shrunk, but positions are at a high level, and there are significant differences between long and short sides regarding the post - holiday market. It is recommended to hold light positions or no positions during the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Conditions - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed down and rose during the night session [1] Important Information - In 2025, China's newly installed capacity of wind and solar power exceeded 430 million kilowatts, setting a new historical high [1] - Among 51 short - process and billet - adjusted section steel production enterprises nationwide, 4% continued normal production during the Spring Festival. The main resumption times after the festival are concentrated around February 24 - 26 (the 8th - 10th day of the first lunar month) and after March 3 (the 15th day of the first lunar month) [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 7.9406 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 258,400 tons or 3.2%; the total inventory was 14.4273 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0498 million tons or 7.8%; the weekly apparent consumption was 6.8908 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% [1] Market Logic - This week, the production of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and five major steel products decreased, inventories increased, and demand continued to decline, which was in line with expectations. On February 12th, the spot steel prices were stable, trading was sluggish, and the spot market was basically closed, waiting for post - holiday demand recovery [1] Trading Strategy - As the Spring Festival approaches, trading volume has shrunk. On February 12th, the trading volume of the rebar main contract was less than 500,000 lots, about 50% lower than the average daily volume of 900,000 - 1 million lots in January. However, positions are at a high level, with the position of the rebar main contract remaining above 2 million lots, and funds have not left the market on a large scale. There are significant differences between long and short sides regarding the post - holiday market. Be vigilant against possible concentrated liquidation on the last trading day, which may lead to unexpected market conditions. It is recommended to hold light positions or no positions during the holiday [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Nasdaq faces downward pressure, and the downward risk of US stocks will spill over. US stock funds are flowing from technology stocks to defensive sectors. It is advisable to exit long positions in stock index futures, reduce equity - type assets, or use short positions in stock index futures to hedge risks or buy put options for protection [4][6]. - China's inflation level moderately rebounded in January. The central bank maintains ample liquidity, supporting long positions in treasury bonds. Treasury bond futures may maintain a volatile pattern, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. - After previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of precious metals is narrowing. However, there is still a possibility of significant fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended to control risks and hold light positions [5]. - For the "Three Oils and Two Meals" strategy, it is recommended to close long positions in double meals before the festival to lock in profits and pay attention to the decline expectation after the festival. For vegetable oils, it is recommended to exit previous long positions, hold light positions during the holiday, and resume trading after the festival [23][29][31]. - For sugar and jujubes, it is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - and long - term, use options for risk control, or hold empty positions during the holiday [24][35]. - For cotton, apples, and logs, cotton is expected to maintain a volatile pattern; apples are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term; logs are expected to have an upward price space [25][36][37][38]. - For corn, hogs, and eggs, it is necessary to pay attention to relevant risks such as grain quality, supply pressure, and chicken culling rhythm after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday [26][39][40][42]. - For crude oil, the price is expected to show a short - term upward - trending volatility before the outcome of the US - Iran situation is determined [49]. - For lithium carbonate, the fundamentals are strong, but it is necessary to manage positions during the holiday [52]. - For methanol, it is in an interval - running pattern, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation during the holiday [55]. - For urea, the price is likely to rise but is restricted by policies. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and domestic demand progress during the holiday [58]. - For pure benzene, the price is expected to show a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and post - holiday demand [61]. - For bottle chips, the price is expected to follow the raw material end in a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and crude oil performance [62]. - For rubber series, it is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to the overseas market [66]. - For steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke, and ferroalloys, it is recommended to significantly reduce positions to avoid risks during the holiday [67][68][69][70]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper prices may be suppressed by the strengthening US dollar; for aluminum, alumina, and caustic soda, it is recommended to hold light positions and operate cautiously during the holiday [85][86][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - The rebound of the Nasdaq is a technical pullback after breaking below the semi - annual line. Hedge funds have sold US stocks for four consecutive weeks, and the selling in the first week of February was the most intense since April last year [4]. - Investors are worried that the industry disruption brought by AI may be more extensive than expected, and companies planning to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in AI construction may not meet high - profit expectations. US stock funds are flowing from technology stocks to defensive sectors [4]. - It is recommended to exit long positions in stock index futures, reduce equity - type assets, or use short positions in stock index futures to hedge risks or buy put options for protection [4]. Treasury Bonds - In January, China's overall inflation level moderately rebounded. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month [5]. - In January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the service industry business activity index was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a moderate economy in January [5]. - The central bank maintains ample liquidity, supporting long positions in treasury bonds. Treasury bond futures may maintain a volatile pattern, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. Precious Metals Gold and Silver - After previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of precious metals is narrowing. The COMEX gold may form an equilibrium at around $5000 per ounce, and the COMEX silver at around $80 per ounce [5]. - However, due to the long Spring Festival holiday and many uncertainties in overseas markets, there is still a possibility of significant fluctuations in gold and silver [5]. Palladium - Before the festival, palladium shows characteristics of spot shortage, high - price volatility, and being dominated by macro - sentiment. The short - term support is strong, but the callback risk is prominent [19]. - It is recommended to reduce positions on rallies, operate cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, and avoid chasing up. Short - term short positions can be tried lightly above 400 yuan per gram [19]. Platinum - Before the festival, platinum prices are highly volatile, in a pattern of tight supply - demand balance and low inventory. The medium - and long - term structural shortage supports prices, but the short - term callback and basis reversal risks are prominent [22]. - It is recommended to operate cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, and avoid one - sided short selling [22]. Three Oils and Two Meals Three Oils - Policy: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the exchange raises margins to control risks, leading to a decline in market trading enthusiasm and downward pressure on the vegetable oil market [29]. - Macro: The US - Iran negotiation results have a significant impact on international crude oil prices, and vegetable oil futures prices will follow to some extent [29]. - Fundamentals: The US biodiesel policy boosts US soybean oil, while Indonesia cancels the 2026 B50 biodiesel plan, pressuring Malaysian palm oil. Domestic vegetable oil Spring Festival stocking is over, and the Brazilian soybean harvest progress is accelerating, bringing pressure to the vegetable oil market [29]. - It is recommended to exit previous long positions in vegetable oils, hold light positions during the holiday, and resume trading after the festival [29]. Two Meals - Policy: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the exchange raises margins to control risks, leading to a decline in market trading enthusiasm [31]. - Macro: China's new round of purchases of US soybeans pushes up US soybean prices, and there are rumors of tightening import grain policies in China [31]. - Fundamentals: The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is accelerating, and the expected 184 million tons of production weakens the South American soybean discount. There are rumors of a 5 - million - ton auction of old - reserve imported soybeans after the Spring Festival in China, and the supply pressure is increasing [31]. - It is recommended to close long positions in double meals before the festival to lock in profits [31]. Sugar and Jujubes - Sugar: The recent ICE raw sugar has fallen below the 14 - cent - per - pound integer support, reaching a five - year low. The global sugar supply - demand balance sheet exerts pressure on sugar prices, and the domestic sugar spot trading is stagnant before the festival. It is recommended to use options for risk control or hold empty positions during the holiday [35]. - Jujubes: Before the festival, jujube futures prices rebounded due to the exit of short positions. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing prices. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - and long - term and hold previous high - level short positions during the holiday [35]. Cotton, Apples, and Logs Cotton - The international cotton market is in a loose pattern. The supply shows structural changes, and the consumption is differentiated. The domestic supply is abundant, and the downstream trading is slowing down before the festival. Cotton prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [36]. Apples - The pre - festival trading in apple production areas is basically over. The cold - storage good - quality apples are in short supply, raising the cost of warehouse receipts. Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term [37]. Logs - The log futures market has both bullish and bearish factors. The price of 3 - meter wood squares in Lanshan area is rising, and the market expects the log price to have an upward space, injecting positive factors into the futures market [38]. Corn, Hogs, and Eggs Corn - Short - term: The spot market trading is light before the Spring Festival, with narrow - range fluctuations. Medium - term: There is still inventory - building demand after the Spring Festival, and a wide - range trading idea should be maintained. Long - term: The pricing logic is still based on substitution + planting cost [39]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to the post - holiday grain quality and policy - grain auction [39]. Hogs - Short - term: The supply of hogs is abundant, and the consumption support is weak before the holiday. Medium - term: The supply pressure will continue to be released before March, and will be alleviated from April. Long - term: The supply pressure will still exist before August, and the far - month contract expectations are lowered [40]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and focus on the post - holiday supply pressure and disease situation [40]. Eggs - Short - term: The spot trading is light before the Spring Festival, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in February is putting pressure on egg prices. Medium - term: The egg supply pressure is postponed. Long - term: The continuous expansion of the egg - laying hen breeding scale may limit the price increase space [42]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and focus on the chicken culling and molting rhythm around the Spring Festival [42]. Crude Oil - The US - Iran negotiation and market liquidity have affected the crude oil price recently. The price is expected to show a short - term upward - trending volatility before the outcome of the US - Iran situation is determined [49]. Lithium Carbonate - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, leading to the stabilization of precious metals and the rebound of the non - ferrous sector. The fundamentals are strong, with production and inventory decreasing. The lithium - battery industry's production plan in March is expected to reach a new high [52]. - It is necessary to manage positions during the holiday [52]. Methanol - The methanol port inventory is at a high level, and the overseas Iranian methanol plants are expected to gradually resume in March. The price is in an interval - running pattern, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation during the holiday [55]. Urea - Urea factories have been destocking since mid - October last year, and the price is supported by reserve demand and agricultural stocking. However, high daily production still exerts pressure. The price is likely to rise but is restricted by policies. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and domestic demand progress during the holiday [58]. Pure Benzene - Crude oil provides strong cost support for pure benzene. Although the current market is weak, the future supply - demand pattern is good. It is expected that the price will show a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and post - holiday demand [61]. Bottle Chips - Crude oil provides strong cost support for bottle chips. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw material end in a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and crude oil performance [62]. Rubber Series Natural Rubber - Before the festival, natural rubber prices are oscillating strongly. The overseas raw material is in the production - reduction season, and the overall warming of commodities boosts the price. However, the seasonal inventory accumulation may suppress the market during the holiday. It is recommended to hold light long positions during the holiday [66]. Synthetic Rubber - Recently, BR has been oscillating. Before the festival, the supply of butadiene is not significantly replenished, and the market trading is light. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to overseas geopolitical events and crude oil trends [66]. Steel - The exchange has raised the margin to 12%. There are risks such as insufficient macro - policy easing, liquidity decline, raw material price fluctuations, and external market linkages. It is recommended to significantly reduce positions to avoid risks during the holiday [73]. Iron Ore - The margin has been increased from 11% to 13%, and the daily limit has been raised from 9% to 11%. There are risks such as high inventory, loose supply - demand, pre - holiday capital withdrawal, and external market fluctuations during the holiday. It is recommended to significantly reduce positions [76]. Coking Coal and Coke - Before the Spring Festival, the coking coal spot trading is relatively sluggish, and the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to post - holiday policies and coal imports [80]. Ferroalloys - Before the Spring Festival, the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon futures continue the pattern of "cost support, weak demand, and interval oscillation". The supply and demand of the two types of ferroalloys are different. It is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday and pay attention to supply - side changes and post - holiday resumption of work [83]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March has been significantly reduced, and the strengthening US dollar will suppress copper prices. There are also risks such as tariff expectations, inventory accumulation, and demand substitution [90]. Aluminum - Before the festival, Shanghai aluminum is oscillating weakly, restricted by high inventory and weak demand. It is recommended to hold light positions, operate cautiously, and conduct intraday trading to avoid overnight risks [92]. Alumina - Before the festival, alumina prices are weakly oscillating, under pressure from cost, supply, and demand. It is recommended to observe cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, conduct intraday trading, and avoid one - sided short selling [95]. Caustic Soda - Before the festival, the caustic soda price is under pressure, showing a weak - oscillating trend. It is recommended to short on rallies, operate cautiously, and hold light positions during the holiday [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Iron ore prices declined on Wednesday and in the night session. The market is affected by factors such as the production and sales of new - energy vehicles, real - estate sales, CPI data, and changes in futures trading rules. Before the holiday, iron ore shipments, arrivals, and port transactions all decreased, and it is expected that the strong support level for the main iron ore contract before the holiday is 750. It is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Review - Iron ore closed down on Wednesday and in the night session [1] Important Information - In January 2026, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China increased by 2.5% and 0.1% year - on - year respectively [1] - The total sales of 16 key real - estate enterprises in January 2026 were 70.263 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 50.9% [1] - In January 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [1] - Since the settlement on February 12, 2026, the daily price limit of iron ore futures contracts has been adjusted to 11%, and the trading margin level has been adjusted to 13%; the daily price limit of coke futures contracts has been adjusted to 10%, and the trading margin level remains unchanged; the daily price limit of coking coal futures contracts has been adjusted to 10%, and the trading margin level has been adjusted to 14% [1] - On February 11, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 237,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 57.2% [1] Market Logic - Near the holiday, the molten iron output changed little. The shipments and arrivals of iron ore in this period both decreased, and the port iron ore transactions decreased [1] Trading Strategy - It is expected that the 750 level will still be a strong support for the main iron ore contract before the holiday. Near the holiday, it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillating weakly [1] - Red dates: Oscillating bearishly [3] - Rubber series: Natural rubber oscillating, 20 - grade rubber oscillating, synthetic rubber oscillating [4] Core Views - The global sugar supply - demand balance sheet has a loose expectation, pressuring sugar prices. The sugar production progress in China, India, and Thailand is advancing steadily, and the high - yield expectation is being fulfilled. The short - term overseas sugar market atmosphere is weak. The domestic sugar market lacks fundamental guidance, and the short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is insufficient [1]. - The red date futures price rebounded due to the exit of short - positions. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing the red date futures and spot prices, and the mid - to long - term view remains bearish [3]. - For natural rubber, overseas raw material prices provide bottom support, but the seasonal inventory accumulation may suppress the market in the short term. For synthetic rubber, the market is supported by some news, but the trading atmosphere is dull. The rubber series is expected to be mainly consolidating [4]. Summary by Variety Sugar - **行情复盘**：SR605合约昨日收盘价5266元/吨，日跌幅0.23%，夜盘收5253元/吨；SR609合约收盘价5275元/吨，日跌幅0.25%，夜盘收5260元/吨 [1]。 - **重要资讯**：广西白糖现货成交价为5301元/吨，下跌10元/吨；2025/26榨季截至1月上半月，巴西中南部地区累计入榨量同比降幅达2.22%，累计产糖量同比增幅达0.86%；截至2月4日当周，巴西港口等待装运食糖的船只数量减少；2025/26榨季截至2026年2月3日，印度马邦产糖806.34万吨；昨日郑商所白糖仓单14461张，日环比+0张 [1]。 - **市场逻辑**：外盘ICE原糖跌破支撑，全球食糖供需宽松预期及中印泰丰产等因素施压，外盘空头仓位高且多头移仓加大近月下跌压力；内盘郑糖震荡走弱，春节临近现货购销停滞，缺乏基本面指引，外弱内强，上方整数压力有效，原糖跌破支撑形成拖累 [1]。 - **交易策略**：SR605空单持有，节前注意风控 [1]。 Red Dates - **行情复盘**：昨日CJ605合约收盘价8895元/吨，日涨幅2.60%；CJ609合约收盘价9100元/吨，日涨幅2.02% [3]。 - **重要资讯**：上周36家样本点物理库存在11888吨，较上周减少1255吨，环比减少9.55%，同比增加12.84%；昨日河北特级红枣批发价9.17元/公斤，日环比+0元/公斤；昨日广东如意坊市场到货车辆0车，日环比+0车；昨日红枣仓单3673张，日环比+127张 [3]。 - **市场逻辑**：昨日红枣期价因空单离场回升，当下基本面可供交易信息有限，节前备货基本结束，供应压力压制期现价格，合约中长线偏空 [3]。 - **交易策略**：CJ605逢高沽空；卖出虚值看涨期权 [3]。 Rubber Series - **行情复盘**：截至02月11日，RU2605合约收盘价为16575元/吨，日涨幅1.47%；NR2604合约收盘价为13445元/吨，日涨幅1.63%；BR2603合约收盘价为13020元/吨，日涨幅1.24% [4]。 - **重要资讯**：昨日泰国原料胶水价格61泰铢/公斤，杯胶价格54.5泰铢/公斤；截至2026年2月8日，青岛地区天胶保税和一般贸易合计库存量环比上期增加1.51万吨，增幅2.55%；昨日全乳胶、20号泰标、20号泰混等价格有变动；昨日RU与NR主力价差环比走扩25元/吨，混合标胶与RU主力价差环比走扩120元/吨；昨日丁二烯不同地区价格有区间，顺丁橡胶、丁苯橡胶市场价格上涨 [4]。 - **市场逻辑**：天然橡胶海外原料减产季价格上涨形成底部支撑，但临近假期市场交投淡、季节性累库或压制行情，短期偏强整理，关注节后需求复苏；合成橡胶节前丁二烯货源无明显补充，部分消息支撑行情，但市场交投平淡，预计盘面整理 [4]。 - **交易策略**：橡胶系未入场者暂时观望，节前风控为主，轻仓过节 [4]。

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 12 日星期四 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 工 | 甲醇 | 震荡偏多 | 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格上涨 2 元至 2243 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价 格上涨 5 元至 2215 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 1453 手至 47.7 万手，空头持 仓减少 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 02 月 12 日星期四 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 郑棉总成交 348681 持仓 104259 ...