Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: "Steel and Ore Fluctuation: Pay Attention to the Transformation of Later Trading Logic" [2] - Report Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Ji Xiaoyun [3] - Contact Information: 010 - 56711796 [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3066027 [3] - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0011402 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Steel and ore are expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory trend. The market logic will shift from industrial - driven to macro - expected in December [5][6]. - Steel supply and demand are both weak. It is expected that rebar and hot - rolled coils will continue to fluctuate within a certain range. Iron ore is also expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [5]. Group 4: Steel Analysis Supply - The output of the five major steel products increased this period. The output of rebar decreased, while that of hot - rolled coils increased. The output of electric - arc furnace steel contributed more to the increase [5][12]. Demand - The apparent demand of all steel products changed from an increase to a decrease [5]. Inventory - Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories continued to decline, but the pace of decline slowed down [5]. Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 35%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6% [5]. Price Forecast - The pressure level of the rebar main contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000. The pressure level of hot - rolled coils is 3450, and the support level is 3200 [5]. Group 5: Iron Ore Analysis Supply - The daily output of molten iron this week was 234.68 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 tons. It is expected to continue to decline and may fall below 230 tons. The domestic iron ore arrival at ports was low this period, but the shipment was active. The overseas port inventory was at a high level [5][17]. Price Forecast - It is expected that iron ore will continue to fluctuate. The pressure level of the main 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750 [5]. Group 6: Trading Strategy - Maintain the judgment of the short - term oscillatory trend of steel and ore. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations [5]. - Pay attention to the time inflection point in December when the market logic will shift from industrial - driven to macro - expected [6]. Group 7: Important Information - On November 24, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. The NDRC will continue to promote relevant work to manage disorderly price competition among enterprises [7]. - From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the country was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. Among them, the total profit of the steel industry was 105.32 billion yuan, turning from a loss to a profit year - on - year [7]. - In mid - November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1.561 million tons, a 0.8% increase from the previous ten - day period, a 26.3% increase from the beginning of the year, a 5.9% decrease from the same ten - day period of last month, a 0.4% increase from the same ten - day period of last year, and a 1.8% increase from the same ten - day period of the year before last [7]. - In November 2025, the floating value of the coking coal long - term contract price linked to steel increased by 78 yuan compared with October [7].

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 白银库存继续下降，酝酿大级别行情 2025年11月28日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 全球经济展望 【全球经济展望】 美联储褐皮书显示，消费者K型分化加剧，高收入消费者支出保持韧性，但中低收入家庭正"勒紧裤腰带"。 随着就业数据转弱，美联储12月降息概率已大幅上升至80%。阿里CEO表示，服务器上架速度远远跟不上需求增速， 三年内，AI泡沫是不存在的。谷歌AI基础设施负责人在全体大会中表示，公司必须每6个月将AI算力翻倍，并在 未来4到5年内额外实现1000倍的增长，以应对持续上升的AI服务需求。英伟达CEO黄仁勋称：中国将赢得人工智 能竞赛，他将中国的潜在胜利归功于更有利的监管环境和更低的能源成本。摩根大通策略师团队认为，未来五年 AI数据中心的建设热潮至少需要5万亿美元。美国9月零售销售额仅增长0.2%，远低于预期，显示美国人正在削减 开支，负担能力危机对消费端的冲击开始显现。ADP周度数据显示，过去四周私人企业裁员 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 股指重回震荡上行格局 2025年11月28日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 美联储部分理事鹰派言论及市场对英伟达财报的过度质疑，是美股本次大跌的重要原因 数据来源：WIND，格林大华期货 美联储主要理事快速放鸽，美国9月消费下降，就业市场恶化，12月降息概率已上升至80%， 纳指快速回升 数据来源：WIND，格林大华期货 阿里CEO：阿里服务器上架速度远远跟不上需求增速，人工智能三年内没有泡沫 阿里巴巴集团CEO吴泳铭在电话会上表示，阿里正在AI to B 和AI to C两大方向齐发力。一方面，Qwen3-Max 的模型智能水平、工具调用能力都已达到全球领先，另一方面，AI和阿里电商、地图、本地生活等业务生态 的协同是更大的想象力。基于AI模型和阿里生态优势，千问APP有望率先打造未来的AI生活入口。 客户需求还是非常旺盛。我们阿里云的AI服务器上架节奏，实际上严重跟不上客户订单的增长速度，我们在 手的积压订单数量还在持 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 玉米利多兑现 维持低多思路不变 猪价震荡磨底 盘面弱势震荡整理 现货低位震荡 鸡蛋多空分歧加大 2025年11月28日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：张晓君 联系方式：0371-65617380 期货从业资格证号：F0242716 期货交易咨询号：Z0011864 本周玉米期货分析逻辑及策略建议 本周观点：玉米利多兑现 维持低多思路不变 【重要资讯】 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示28日深加工企业收购价小幅上涨。东北地区深加工企业收购价2056元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨；华北地区深加工企业收购价 2280元/吨，较前一日涨9元/吨。 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示28日北港稳定、南港偏弱。锦州港15%水二等新季玉米收购价2210-2230元/吨左右，较前一日持平；蛇口港成交价2390元/吨， 较前一日跌10元/吨。 3、28日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日减2300张，共计60215张。 4、玉米饲用性价比提升。WIND 数据显示截至11月28日，山东地区小麦-玉米价差为+240元/吨，较前一日持平。 【市场逻辑】 短期来看，华北地区连阴雨对产量及粮质影响 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bullish [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures were closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday; the driving force for Zhengzhou cotton futures prices weakened. New cotton warehousing reached its peak, and commercial inventories entered a seasonal growth cycle. Spinning mills' downstream orders remained dull, and the operating rate did not show an obvious decline. Overall, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton maintained a sideways movement [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 284,007 lots, and the open interest was 954,257 lots. The settlement prices were 13,635 yuan/ton for January, 13,595 yuan/ton for May, and 13,715 yuan/ton for September. The settlement price of the ICE December contract was 62.77, up 34 points; the March contract was 64.57, up 34 points; the May contract was 65.75, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 35,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 24, spinning mills in the Bortala region of northern Xinjiang purchased new 31 - grade machine - picked cotton with double 29 and less than 2.8% impurity in Xinjiang warehouses. The basis transaction price for the 2601 contract was 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14,600 - 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 - 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - In August 2025, the US cotton product import volume was 1.499 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.68% [2] - As of November 16, according to the US Department of Agriculture, the US cotton picking progress was 71%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [2] - In August 2025, the US textile and clothing import volume was 9.789 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%; the import value was 9.53 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 6.13% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [2] - On November 24, both the trading volume and open interest of cotton yarn futures increased, and the price rose while the spot price remained stable. Some spinning mills reported that the downstream sales had slowed down recently, the finished product inventory had increased slightly, and the off - season atmosphere in the market had intensified [2] Trading Strategy - Close the previously held call options on the 01 contract - Hold the call options on the 05 contract with an exercise price of 13,500 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating and bullish" [1] 2. Core View - The methanol futures price showed an upward trend on Thursday night, with the spot price in the East China mainstream area also rising. The market is influenced by factors such as supply, inventory, demand, and overseas news. With the news of overseas Iranian device shutdowns and port destocking, the methanol market is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2070 - 2160. A bullish trading strategy is recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract rose by 6 yuan to 2123 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China mainstream area rose by 17 yuan to 2105 yuan/ton. The long - position holdings decreased by 23,122 lots to 652,000 lots, and the short - position holdings increased by 39,773 lots to 784,400 lots [1] Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate was 89.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%. The overseas methanol operating rate was 73.2%, remaining flat month - on - month [1] - **Inventory**: The total methanol port inventory in China was 1363,500 tons, a decrease of 115,800 tons. The inventory in East China decreased by 80,300 tons, and that in South China decreased by 35,500 tons. The inventory of sample methanol production enterprises in China was 373,700 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.19% [1] - **Demand**: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises were 86,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1900 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 230,700 tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.34%. The olefin operating rate was 91%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.8%, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%; the methyl chloride operating rate was 80%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%; the acetic acid operating rate was 73.1%, a month - on - month increase of 3.4%; the formaldehyde operating rate was 42.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the MTBE operating rate was 69.9%, remaining flat month - on - month [1] - **External Factors**: The end of the US government shutdown, the hawkish remarks of Federal Reserve officials, and the uncertainty of the December FOMC meeting suppressed the temporarily warming market sentiment [1] Market Logic - According to market news, there were reports of continued shutdowns of Iranian devices overseas, with a total of 6 production lines with a capacity of 9.9 million tons shut down. This week, the ports destocked, while the production areas had a slight inventory build - up. The import volume in October was 1.612 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13%. It is expected that 3 MTO devices will be shut down for maintenance from November to December. The methanol market will be bullishly oscillating under the influence of overseas news. Future focus should be on the port inventory destocking amplitude and the start - stop of Iranian devices [1] Trading Strategy - A bullish trading strategy is recommended [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Black (Coking Coal and Coke) Sector: Bearish [1] 2. Core View - The coking coal and coke market sentiment continues to weaken following the fundamentals. The double - coking market is waiting for the winter storage in December to potentially improve the supply - demand pattern [1] 3. Key Points from Different Aspects Market Performance - Coking coal main contract (Jm2601) closed at 1071.0, down 1.24% compared to the daytime session opening; at night on November 27, it closed at 1057.0, down 1.31% compared to the daytime session closing. Coke main contract (J2601) closed at 1607.0, down 0.74% compared to the daytime session opening; at night on November 27, it closed at 1570.0, down 2.30% compared to the daytime session closing [1] Important News - Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption. The goal is to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027, forming 3 trillion - level consumption areas and 100 billion - level consumption hotspots [1] Auction Information - On November 11, 2025, in the auction of Qinxin lean coal in Qinxin Group, Changzhi, Shanxi, the starting price was 1480 yuan/ton, with 4000 tons sold at 1480 yuan/ton and 36000 tons unsold. The previous auction on November 26 had a starting price of 1530 yuan/ton, with 300 tons sold at 1530 yuan/ton and 2700 tons unsold. The average transaction price decreased by 50 yuan/ton [1] - On November 27, 2025, in the auction of coking coal from Zhujiazhuang Mine of Liliu Group in Lvliang, Shanxi, the starting price was 1500 yuan/ton, and 2000 tons were all sold at 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton. The previous auction on November 3 had a starting price of 1350 yuan/ton, and 3000 tons were all sold at 1600 - 1680 yuan/ton. The average transaction price decreased by 135 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The coking coal spot market remains weak. This week, the raw coal output of 523 mines decreased, and the inventory reached a high level. Downstream demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, with the iron - making water output decreasing by 16000 tons to 2346800 tons this week. The steel mill profitability rate dropped to 35%, a new low this year [1] Trading Strategy - For coking coal, the support level of the main contract has moved down. The support for the main contract is at 1030, and the support for the Jm2605 contract is at 1100 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "volatile" [2] Report's Core View - The price of pure benzene is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with the 03 contract reference range of 5300 - 5650 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on port arrivals and future US dollar pure benzene market transaction prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the price of the main contract futures BZ2603 dropped 16 yuan to 5436 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 5320 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the spot price in Shandong was 5245 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan). Long positions decreased by 407 lots to 16,300 lots, and short positions increased by 116 lots to 19,100 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: In October, China's pure benzene production was 1.9363 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In November, the planned maintenance was 50,000 tons, with limited supply reduction. In October, the pure benzene import volume was 496,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.1%. A refinery in East China plans to overhaul a 10 - million - ton atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit and a reforming unit in January, affecting 600,000 tons of pure benzene production capacity [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the sample ports in Jiangsu was 164,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.56%; a year - on - year increase of 39,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.20%. During the statistical period, about 45,000 tons arrived, 12,000 tons were unloading and not included in the statistics, and about 28,000 tons were picked up. The visible ship arrivals in the next period are about 105,000 tons, but considering the berth unloading capacity, the expected arrival is 60,000 tons [2] - Demand: The operating rate of styrene was 68.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the operating rate of phenol was 79%, a month - on - month increase of 11.4%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 88.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%; the operating rate of aniline was 75.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 55.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5%. Caprolactam factories have started self - disciplined production cuts, and there may be a reduction in pure benzene demand in December and January [2] - Other: A factory in Shandong plans to shut down its disproportionation unit at the beginning of December due to low disproportionation processing margins, with a monthly production decline of about 50%. The international oil price rose slightly. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 01 contract rose 0.21 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.33%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2601 contract rose 2.3 to 445.1 yuan/barrel, and rose 6.5 to 451.6 yuan/barrel at night. The end of the US government shutdown, hawkish remarks from Fed officials and the uncertainty of the December FOMC meeting suppress the temporarily warming market sentiment [2] Market Logic - Recently, the gasoline cracking profit in Europe and the United States has declined, and the blending oil demand has weakened. The pure benzene port has accumulated inventory this week, and it is expected that the East China port will continue the inventory accumulation trend in the short - term. The operating rate of phenol in the demand side has rebounded significantly, and the weighted operating rate of downstream products has increased. The short - term price is mainly volatile [2] Trading Strategy - Adopt a short - term volatile trading mindset [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term outlook for precious metals is that they may experience wide - range oscillations, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Precious Metals Market Conditions - COMEX gold futures fell 0.3% to $4189.6 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 0.41% to $53.825 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.02% at 946.90 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.29% to 12490 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - As of November 27, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, remained unchanged at 1045.43 tons from the previous trading day. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, also remained unchanged at 15582.33 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 86.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 13.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 67.3%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 9.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 23.1% [1]. - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes showed that the Governing Council's assessment of the inflation outlook remained largely unchanged; the outlook was still unclear, and this uncertainty could also be a reason to keep interest rates unchanged. Most members believed that the inflation outlook faced two - way risks [1]. Market Logic - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 216,000, slightly lower than the estimated 225,000, but the number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose slightly to 1.96 million, indicating increasing difficulty for the unemployed to find re - employment. - The US core PPI in September increased 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.7%; retail sales in September increased 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%. ADP weekly data showed that private enterprises on average lost 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, more than the 2500 jobs lost per week shown in the previous update a week ago. - The latest weak economic data has kept the probability of a Fed rate cut in December above 80%. On November 27, the US dollar index fluctuated widely horizontally, closing at 99.55. Overnight, COMEX gold fluctuated horizontally, and COMEX silver rose slightly. Precious metals may oscillate slightly more in the short term [1]. Trading Strategy - Precious metals may experience wide - range oscillations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be mainly oscillatory The upper limit of the important pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 810, and the support level is 750 [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - On Thursday, iron ore closed up and closed down at night [1] Important Information - From January to October 2025, the total profit of national large - scale industrial enterprises was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% The total profit of the steel industry was 105.32 billion yuan, turning from loss to profit year - on - year [1] - On November 24, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost identification of disorderly price competition The NDRC will continue to promote relevant work with relevant departments to manage disorderly price competition among enterprises [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 855,710 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons or 0.7% The total inventory was 14.0081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 322,900 tons or 2.25% The weekly consumption was 888,000 tons, a decrease of 0.7% Among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates increased by 2.3% week - on - week [1] Market Logic - During the policy vacuum period, attention should be paid to the policy expectations brought by the Central Economic Work Conference in December This week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased The daily output of molten iron this week was 2.3468 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 160,000 tons The profitability rate of steel mills was 35%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6% [1] Trading Strategy - Maintain the view that the short - term trend is expected to be mainly oscillatory The upper limit of the important pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 810, and the support level is 750 [1]