- The "China A500 Free Cash Flow Index" will be officially launched on July 16, 2025, by the China Securities Index Company. This index selects 50 listed companies with high free cash flow rates from the China A500 Index sample, aiming to reflect the overall performance of companies with strong cash flow generation capabilities within the A500 Index sample [10] - As of July 18, 2025, there are 20 existing free cash flow indices in the market, including the China Securities Free Cash Flow Index, Free Cash Flow Index, 800 Free Cash Flow Index, 300 Free Cash Flow Index, and FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus Index. These indices are tracked by corresponding index products [10][11] - The free cash flow-themed index products have seen continuous expansion in scale and quantity. As of July 18, 2025, the total scale of these products exceeded 100 billion yuan, reaching 121.85 billion yuan, with 28 products in total. Among them, the passive products tracking the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index have the largest scale of 54.8 billion yuan, followed by the FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus Index with a scale of 31.7 billion yuan, and the China Securities Free Cash Flow Index with a scale of 21.5 billion yuan [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the China Securities REITs Index closed lower, with property - type REITs outperforming concession - type REITs. The average weekly price changes of property - type and concession - type REITs were +0.3% and - 0.5% respectively. The weekly price change ranking of major indices was: CSI 300 > China Securities Convertible Bond Index > China Securities All - Bond Index > China Securities REITs Index. The average daily turnover rate of REITs for the whole week decreased slightly compared with the previous week. Different types of REITs in the market showed divergent price movements, with municipal, park, and consumer - type REITs having the largest price increases. As of July 18, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs was 6.3%, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets. The dividend yield of property - type REITs was 154 basis points lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 192 basis points. Two data center REITs were successfully issued, and the market subscription was enthusiastic [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market Trends - **Index Performance**: As of July 18, 2025, the closing price of the China Securities REITs (closing) Index was 875.82 points, with a weekly price change of - 0.09%, performing worse than the China Securities Convertible Bond Index (+0.67%), the CSI 300 Index (+1.09%), and the China Securities All - Bond Index (+0.11%). Year - to - date, the price change ranking of major indices was: China Securities REITs (+10.9%) > China Securities Convertible Bond Index (+9.5%) > CSI 300 (+3.1%) > China Securities All - Bond Index (+1.4%). In the past year, the return rate of the China Securities REITs Index was 11.2%, with a volatility of 7.0%. Its return rate was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the China Securities All - Bond Index; its volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the China Securities All - Bond Index [2][8][12]. - **Market Capitalization and Turnover Rate**: The total market capitalization of REITs decreased to 204.6 billion yuan on July 18, a decrease of 600 million yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.55%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous week [2][12]. - **Divergent Performance of Different Types of REITs**: From the perspective of project attributes, the average weekly price changes of property - type and concession - type REITs were +0.3% and - 0.5% respectively. From the perspective of project types, all types of REITs had price changes, with the three project types with the largest average price increases being municipal facilities (+1.2%), park infrastructure (+0.5%), and consumer infrastructure (+0.4%). The top three REITs in terms of weekly price increases were China Merchants Science and Technology Innovation REIT (+3.05%), Huaxia JINMAO Commercial REIT (+2.24%), and CICC Hubei KeTou Optics Valley REIT (+2.08%) [3][18][22]. - **Trading Activity**: Among different project types, ecological and environmental protection - type REITs were the most actively traded this week, and park infrastructure - type REITs had the highest proportion of trading volume. The former had an average daily turnover rate of 1.2% during the period, accounting for 4.3% of the total REITs trading volume, while the latter had an average daily turnover rate of 0.7%, accounting for 22.8% of the total REITs trading volume. In terms of the capital flow of different REIT products this week, the top three in terms of net inflow of main funds were CICC China Green Development Commercial REIT (11.56 million yuan), Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT (7.29 million yuan), and CITIC Construction Investment SPIC New Energy REIT (7.26 million yuan) [3][24][25]. 3.2 Primary Market Issuance As of July 18, 2025, there were 2 REIT products in the "inquiry" stage on the exchange, 7 products in the "feedback" stage, 7 products that had passed the review and were waiting to be listed, and 5 first - issued products that had passed the review and were already listed [27]. 3.3 Valuation Tracking - **Debt - like Aspect**: Due to the constraint of mandatory high - dividend distribution, the annualized cash distribution rate of REITs is concerned. As of July 18, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs was 6.3%, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets [29]. - **Equity - like Aspect**: The valuation of REITs is judged through relative net asset value premium/discount rate, IRR, and P/FFO. The relative net asset value premium/discount rate reflects the relationship between the market value and fair value of the fund, similar to the PB indicator of stocks; IRR is the internal rate of return calculated using the discounted cash flow method; P/FFO is the current price divided by the cash flow generated from operations. The relative net asset value premium/discount rate is a long - term perspective, evaluating the secondary - market valuation level from the valuation of underlying assets, while P/FFO is a short - term perspective, valuing the distributable cash flow based on the recent operating conditions of assets and judging the current investment return rate [29]. - **Comparison of Different Types of REITs**: Property - type REITs focus on dividend yield, and concession - type REITs focus on internal rate of return. As of July 18, 2025, the dividend yield of property - type REITs was 154 basis points lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 192 basis points [30]. 3.4 Industry News - On July 14, the fund contract of Chuangjin Hexin Shounong REIT came into effect. During the public offering period (July 7 - 8), it raised 3.685 billion yuan and confirmed 1 billion shares, including 700 million shares (70%) for strategic placement, 210 million shares (21%) for offline investors, and 90 million shares (9%) for the public. The underlying assets are mature industrial supporting facilities in Beijing Shounong Information Industry Park. The fund is expected to have a total distributable amount of over 500 million yuan in the second half of 2025 and 2026, with a calculated distribution rate of approximately 6.9% - 6.85%, providing stable cash flow and expansion funds for industrial park - type assets [37]. - On July 16, Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT announced the subscription confirmation results, and the market subscription was enthusiastic. Public investors effectively subscribed for 28.616 billion shares, with a confirmation ratio of only 0.3145%, over - subscribed by 317.95 times; the confirmation ratio for offline investors was 0.5992%. The fund issued a total of 1 billion shares to strategic, offline, and public investors. The underlying asset of this REIT is the International Information Cloud Aggregation Core Port A - 18 Data Center of Runze Technology in Langfang, Hebei, with 5,897 cabinets, a rack - up rate of over 99%, a PUE of 1.276 in 2024, and it was included in the list of national green data centers [37]. - On July 16, Southern Wanguo Data Center REIT completed its public offering and announced the placement results. Public investors effectively subscribed for 32.914 billion shares, with a confirmation ratio of 0.2198%, over - subscribed by 455.03 times; the confirmation ratio for offline investors was 0.6064%. This offering raised 800 million shares and 2.4 billion yuan in funds. The underlying asset is the Guojin Cloud Computing Data Center of Wanguo Data in Huaqiao Town, Kunshan, Jiangsu, with 4,192 cabinets, a power capacity of 29,044 kW, a PUE of 1.24 in 2024, and an average signing rate of 100% in the past three years [37]. - On July 16, Nanjing Electromechanical Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. publicly tendered for the fund management service of Xin Gong Industrial Park Infrastructure Public - Offering REITs, planning to select a manager to undertake issuance guidance and post - issuance management. The planned initial application scale is not less than 1 billion yuan. The proposed assets in the pool are industrial park properties under the group, with a leasable construction area of 388,000 square meters, a land reserve of 616,000 square meters, and total assets of 4.7 billion yuan, covering industries such as equipment manufacturing and industry - education integration [37].

Core Insights - Global capital and technology are accelerating around "deep decarbonization," with the EU postponing mandatory ESG disclosures for large companies to 2027 to ease short-term compliance burdens [2][6] - China is intensifying its green finance and ESG policies, with the central bank releasing a new version of the "Green Finance Support Project Directory (2025 Edition)" outlining eight major green industry directions [2][26] - The academic frontier shows that trade policy uncertainty has a significant inverted U-shaped relationship with corporate ESG performance, indicating that moderate levels of trade policy uncertainty incentivize ESG investment [2][4] ESG Important Events - The EU has decided to delay key sustainability reporting requirements for large companies until 2027, allowing for a two-year extension on new or upgraded ESG disclosures [20][25] - Saudi Arabia has committed to investing $8.3 billion in renewable energy projects by 2028, aiming to provide 15,000 MW of clean energy capacity [6][8] - Iberdrola has signed over $7.5 billion in sustainable financing agreements, including €4.1 billion for the construction of one of the world's largest offshore wind farms [8][26] Academic Frontiers - A study published in the "International Review of Economics and Finance" found that trade policy uncertainty has a significant inverted U-shaped relationship with corporate ESG performance, suggesting that moderate levels of uncertainty can encourage ESG investments [2][4] - Another study indicated that an increase in provincial digital trade levels correlates with a 0.131 increase in corporate ESG scores, particularly in state-owned enterprises and regions with strong environmental regulations [2][4] Domestic ESG Hotspots - The People's Bank of China has released a new version of the "Green Finance Support Project Directory (2025 Edition)," which clarifies eight major green industry directions [2][26] - The first "ESG-linked" carbon quota loan has been issued in Yunnan, marking a significant step in integrating ESG principles into financial products [2][26] - Geely Auto has announced plans to enhance its new energy layout by absorbing Zeekr, indicating a strategic shift towards sustainable transportation [2][26]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月20日 转债市场周报 资金配置转债需求依旧较强 核心观点 固定收益周报 上周市场焦点（7 月 14 日-7 月 18 日） 股市方面，上周权益市场延续上涨，英伟达 H20 芯片恢复对华供应、光 模块龙头企业业绩预告表现亮眼等催化下，通信板块表现靠前，创新药、 机器人相关行情带动生物医药、汽车、机械板块表现较好。 债市方面，上周债市窄幅震荡，尽管央行实行大额公开市场投放及买断 式逆回购，但受税期影响资金面仍有所收紧，6 月金融数据改善、权益 市场延续强势也对债市情绪形成压制；而 6 月经济数据显示内需依旧偏 弱则利好债市；周五 10 年期国债利率收于 1.67%，和前周基本持平。 转债市场方面，上周转债个券多数收涨，中证转债指数全周+0.67%，价 格中位数+0.91%，我们计算的算术平均平价全周+1.43%，全市场转股溢 价率与上周相比-0.91%。个券层面，博瑞（创新药）、博汇（算力）、 聚隆（机器人）、亿田（算力）、宏丰（合金材料）转债涨幅靠前；塞 力（创新药&业绩预亏）、广大（特种合金&已公告强赎）、华辰（变压 器）、濮耐（耐火材料）、联得（显示模组设备&已公告强赎）转 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [4] Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing significant growth driven by the demand for high-speed optical modules and AI chip infrastructure, particularly in the context of companies like Nvidia and TSMC reporting strong earnings [1][3][17] - The performance of key companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng indicates a robust outlook for the optical module sector, with substantial year-on-year profit growth expected [1][30][36] Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - Zhongji Xuchuang forecasts a net profit of 3.6 to 4.4 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.64% to 86.57% due to rising demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules [1] - Xinyi Sheng anticipates a net profit of 3.7 to 4.2 billion yuan for H1 2025, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 327.68% to 385.47%, driven by changes in demand structure and increased production capacity [1][31] - TSMC reported a Q2 2025 revenue of 933.8 billion NTD, a 38.6% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising 61% [1][17] Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI computing infrastructure across various segments, particularly optical devices and modules, as well as domestic computing companies benefiting from increased investment in 2025 [3][59] - Long-term investment in the three major telecom operators is recommended due to their stable operations and increasing dividend payouts [3][59] Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Zhongji Xuchuang's H1 2025 net profit is projected to be between 3.6 billion and 4.4 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 52.64% to 86.57% [36] - Xinyi Sheng's H1 2025 net profit is expected to be between 3.7 billion and 4.2 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 327.68% to 385.47% [31] - Guangku Technology anticipates a net profit of 48.56 to 54.63 million yuan for H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 60% to 80% [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the industry [2][5][16]. Core Viewpoints - The recent revival of equity refinancing among several brokerage firms indicates a gradual recovery in the sector, with new funds directed towards innovative areas such as technology finance and wealth management [4][5]. - The demand for capital among securities firms is increasing due to the rapid development of investment and credit businesses, suggesting a dual approach of equity and debt financing to enhance capital strength [5][12]. - The competitive landscape remains intense, with a focus on wealth management, market-making, and financial technology, making equity refinancing crucial for supporting business transformation [5][12][16]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Multiple brokerage firms have restarted equity refinancing, with East Wu Securities planning to raise up to 6 billion yuan for various business expansions and operational needs [4][6]. - The equity refinancing trend has been gradually recovering since 2025, with notable events such as Tianfeng Securities' successful refinancing [5][8]. Financing Trends - The scale of equity refinancing has significantly decreased since 2023, with only 5.992 billion yuan raised in 2023, 29.492 billion yuan in 2024, and 16 billion yuan in 2025 to date [8][9]. - Debt financing remains the primary method for securities firms, with a notable increase in debt financing activities compared to equity financing [10][12]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the recovery of equity refinancing will support the expansion of business scale and performance growth for securities firms, particularly in a favorable capital market environment [12][16]. - The report recommends leading brokerages such as CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, as well as firms with strong flow advantages like Dongfang Wealth and Guolian Minsheng [16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve rapid growth in its 2025H1 performance, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 290 to 348 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 80% [1]. - The company's electric power equipment business is experiencing steady growth, with accelerated overseas expansion and successful project bids, including a 700 million yuan project for the Saudi national grid [2]. - The electric vehicle charging network business is also growing rapidly, with charging volume exceeding 8.5 billion kWh in 2025H1, a year-on-year increase of 47% [2]. Financial Forecasts and Key Indicators - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.218 billion yuan, 1.532 billion yuan, and 1.862 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.9%, 25.8%, and 21.5% [3][4]. - Revenue is expected to reach 17.214 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.15 yuan, 1.45 yuan, and 1.76 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][4].

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating improved economic momentum[1] - The standardized Index B rose by 0.14, outperforming historical averages, suggesting a recovery in domestic economic growth[1] - Consumption sector performance improved, while investment sector showed a decline, and real estate sector remained stable[1] Price Tracking - Food prices increased by approximately 0.5% month-on-month, while non-food prices decreased by about 0.5%[2] - Overall CPI is expected to rise by around 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year CPI remaining flat at 0.1%[2] - PPI is projected to remain around zero month-on-month, with a year-on-year PPI expected to recover to -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, indicating potential downward pressure on the index and upward pressure on the ten-year government bond yield[1][17] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of July 25, 2025, is 2.26%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,151.19[18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5]. Core Insights - The approval of the first cross-province green electricity direct connection project in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is expected to boost the demand for distribution equipment. This project, initiated by the State Power Investment Corporation, features a renewable energy installation capacity of 3 million kilowatts and aims to connect directly to aluminum production facilities in Ningxia [1][2]. - The project introduces an innovative short-distance cross-province "point-to-point" supply model, enhancing resource complementarity between the two regions and providing new ideas for inter-provincial electricity complementarity and expanding renewable energy consumption channels [2]. Company Summaries - **Sifang Co., Ltd. (601126.SH)**: Market capitalization of 14.3 billion RMB, with projected net profits of 720 million RMB in 2024, 850 million RMB in 2025, and 990 million RMB in 2026. The PE ratios are 19.9x for 2024, 16.8x for 2025, and 14.4x for 2026, with a PB ratio of 2.9 [4]. - **Teruid (300001.SZ)**: Market capitalization of 25.1 billion RMB, with projected net profits of 920 million RMB in 2024, 1.22 billion RMB in 2025, and 1.53 billion RMB in 2026. The PE ratios are 27.4x for 2024, 20.6x for 2025, and 16.4x for 2026, with a PB ratio of 3.3 [4]. - **XJ Electric (000400.SZ)**: Market capitalization of 22.5 billion RMB, with projected net profits of 1.12 billion RMB in 2024, 1.46 billion RMB in 2025, and 1.88 billion RMB in 2026. The PE ratios are 20.1x for 2024, 15.4x for 2025, and 12.0x for 2026, with a PB ratio of 1.9 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [4] Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.8% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 5.5% [1] - The healthcare and internet sectors are leading the market, with significant gains observed in the pharmaceutical sector (+11.9%) and the internet sector (+7.4%) [1][16] - Overall, 27 industries within the Hong Kong Stock Connect experienced an increase, while only 2 industries saw a decline [1] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,826, reflecting a 2.8% increase for the week and a 26.8% increase year-to-date [12] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also performed well, increasing by 5.5% for the week and 56.6% year-to-date [12] - The small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, with the Hang Seng Small Cap Index rising by 3.6% compared to 3.3% for large-cap stocks [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The average daily fund inflow was +14.1 million HKD, with the pharmaceutical sector benefiting the most, attracting +4.8 million HKD per day [2] - A total of 24 industries saw fund inflows, while 6 industries experienced outflows, with the pharmaceutical, computer, and retail sectors leading in inflows [2] Earnings Forecast - The overall EPS forecast for the Hong Kong Stock Connect was revised upward by 0.2%, with the steel industry showing a notable increase of +12.6% [3] - 20 industries had their EPS forecasts revised upward, while 7 industries saw downward revisions [3] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector led the industry performance with a weekly increase of 11.9%, followed by the comprehensive sector (+8.0%) and the computer sector (+7.9%) [16] - The real estate and construction materials sectors were the weakest performers, with declines of -0.2% and -0.8%, respectively [1][16]