Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% [1][37]. Core Insights - TSMC has raised its revenue growth forecast for 2025 from approximately 25% to around 30%, driven by strong AI demand and a moderate recovery in non-AI demand [2][4]. - The semiconductor sector is experiencing high demand, particularly in AI and domestic growth opportunities, with recommendations for companies like SMIC, Huahong Semiconductor, and others [2]. - The PCB industry is facing a shortage of high-end materials, which is expected to sustain high growth in quarterly performance due to increased demand from AI servers and network devices [3]. - The approval of H20 chip exports to China is anticipated to benefit the computing power supply chain significantly, with a focus on AI infrastructure as a key investment theme [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, while the electronic sector increased by 2.15%, with components up by 9.36% and semiconductors by 0.42% over the past week [11]. Company Performance - TSMC reported Q2 2025 revenue of $30.07 billion, exceeding guidance, with a year-over-year increase of 44.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17.8% [2]. - The report highlights a strong performance from companies like Industrial Fulian, Longsys Technology, and others, with a focus on AI computing and innovation [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a range of companies across different segments, including Industrial Fulian, Xiaomi Group, and others in the semiconductor and PCB sectors, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 [1][9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [2][6]. Core Views - The liquor sector is experiencing a valuation recovery, with some companies releasing mid-year performance forecasts that are expected to alleviate demand pressure. The overall sentiment in the liquor market is improving due to positive policy expectations, leading to a rebound in stock prices for major players [3][12]. - The beer and beverage segments are entering a peak season, with a focus on mid-year performance. Major beer companies are expected to maintain high profit growth due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [4][15]. - The report highlights three main investment themes in the liquor sector: resilient leaders like Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye; companies like Luzhou Laojiao that are showing signs of valuation recovery; and brands like Jinsiyuan and Yingjiagongjiu that have potential for market share growth [3][14]. Summary by Sections Liquor - The liquor sector's revenue for the first half of the year reached 331.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. However, production has decreased by 5.8% [3][12]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong anti-risk capabilities and those that are actively engaging in digital transformation [3][14]. Consumer Goods - The beer segment is expected to see significant profit growth, with Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer forecasting net profits to increase by 40% to 50% year-on-year [15][16]. - The snack food sector is under pressure, with companies like Ganyuan Food and Qiaqia Food predicting substantial declines in net profits due to high raw material costs and increased marketing expenses [17][18]. Seasonality and Market Trends - The report notes that the beverage industry is entering a peak consumption period, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [21][22]. - The dairy sector is anticipated to recover gradually, with policies stimulating demand and improving supply dynamics [20][21]. Key Data Tracking - The food and beverage sector saw a 1.02% increase in stock prices, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.33 percentage points during the week of July 14 to July 18, 2025 [22].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is a leading manufacturer of copper-clad laminates (CCL) and is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for high-frequency and high-speed products driven by AI computing needs [4][10]. - The company expects significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projected increases of 78%, 41%, and 28%, reaching 31 billion, 44 billion, and 56 billion yuan respectively [4][5]. - The company has a strong market position, being the second-largest global supplier of rigid CCL, with a market share of 14% as of 2023 [2][35]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 8.61 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 59.44% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 52.66% [1]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 20.39 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 22.9% [5]. - The company’s net profit is expected to grow from 1.16 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.57 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.9% [5][16]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company has maintained its position as the second-largest rigid CCL manufacturer globally for over a decade, with a production capacity that has grown from 600,000 square meters per year at inception to 140 million square meters in 2024 [2][11]. - The demand for CCL is expected to rise due to the recovery in consumer electronics, automotive, and mining sectors, alongside a price increase in CCL driven by raw material costs [2][4]. - The company has invested heavily in R&D, with a research expense ratio of 5.7% in 2024, which is higher than its peers [2][38]. Product Development and Innovation - The company has successfully entered the high-frequency and high-speed CCL market, achieving technological parity with leading international competitors [2][38]. - The company is actively collaborating with top AI computing clients to develop new products, which are already being supplied in bulk [3][66]. - The company’s high-frequency CCL products have been certified by major clients such as NVIDIA, Huawei, and Nokia, indicating strong market acceptance [79]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company will benefit from the AI-driven demand for high-frequency CCL, with revenue from CCL and bonding sheets expected to grow significantly in the coming years [89]. - The company is projected to see a gradual improvement in gross margins, with expectations of reaching over 30% for high-end products by 2027 [89].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" investment rating for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The expansion of the "Bond Connect" southbound channel will provide more overseas asset allocation opportunities for mainland non-bank financial institutions, alleviating the supply tightness of quality assets in the domestic market and promoting reasonable capital flow [1]. - The U.S. inflation data for June showed a year-on-year increase to 2.7%, slightly above expectations, while core CPI rose to 2.9%, indicating controlled inflation but potential short-term increases if tariffs are raised [2]. - The derivatives market maintains expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, with a cumulative reduction of 50 basis points anticipated by year-end [3]. - The report suggests that the current long-end U.S. Treasury yields are rising, reflecting market concerns about future inflation and fiscal deficits, while the expansion of the southbound bond market will enhance liquidity for Chinese dollar bonds and Hong Kong dollar bonds [4]. Summary by Sections U.S. Macroeconomics and Liquidity - The report highlights the controlled inflation environment in the U.S., with CPI expected to rise to 3.0%-3.5% in the short term if tariffs increase [2]. - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries has steepened, indicating market concerns about inflation and fiscal policy [3]. Overseas Dollar Bonds - The expansion of the "Bond Connect" southbound channel is expected to create structural opportunities for dollar bond allocations, particularly benefiting Chinese dollar bonds and Hong Kong dollar bonds [4]. Chinese Dollar Bonds - The report notes that recent rating actions by international agencies included 11 adjustments for Chinese dollar bond issuers, with three upgrades and five downgrades [93].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the TDI industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The TDI price is rapidly increasing due to supply constraints caused by overseas incidents and recent maintenance of some TDI facilities [3][4] - Global TDI production capacity is accelerating towards China, with Wanhua Chemical maintaining its leading position [3][19] - China's TDI exports have significantly increased, enhancing international competitiveness [3][24] - The current TDI inventory cycle may have transitioned to a passive destocking phase, with a potential shift towards an active restocking phase in the future [3][29] - The retail sales of furniture in China have shown a high year-on-year growth rate, driven by consumption stimulus policies such as "old-for-new" [3][33] Summary by Sections Incident Impact - An electrical fire at Covestro's Dormagen plant in Germany on July 12 caused a supply contraction of TDI due to the interruption of key raw materials like chlorine [2][4] - The affected TDI production capacity includes a 300,000 tons/year facility, with the duration of the force majeure event currently uncertain [2][4] Price Trends - TDI prices have surged, with European producers raising prices by €500/ton (approximately RMB 4,160/ton) on July 17 [5] - Domestic prices in East China for TDI rose from approximately RMB 13,800-14,100/ton to RMB 14,800-15,200/ton within a few days, indicating a daily increase of about RMB 700-1,000 [5] Production Capacity and Market Dynamics - Global TDI capacity is currently 3.367 million tons, with Asia accounting for 2.427 million tons (72.1%), and China's capacity reaching 1.64 million tons (48.7% of global capacity) [18] - By 2026, global TDI capacity is expected to increase to 3.767 million tons, with China's share rising to 2.11 million tons (55.9% of global capacity) [18][19] Company Focus - Wanhua Chemical is highlighted as a key player, with current TDI capacity of 1.11 million tons (33% of global capacity), projected to reach 1.52 million tons (40.4% of global capacity) by 2026 [3][19] - Recent overseas capacity reductions and the exit of several foreign producers have further solidified Wanhua's competitive edge [19] Export Trends - China's TDI exports have transitioned from a net import state to a net export state since 2012, with net exports exceeding 300,000 tons annually from 2021 to 2024 [24][26] - In the first five months of 2025, net exports reached 220,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 97% [26] Inventory and Demand Outlook - The TDI inventory cycle is currently in a passive destocking phase, with expectations of transitioning to an active restocking phase if demand recovers in line with capacity releases [29] - The demand for TDI is supported by strong retail sales in the furniture sector and growth in the automotive industry, particularly in the context of new energy vehicles [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [1][5][8]. Core Views - The report highlights the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, focusing on power delivery and local consumption [1][15]. - The Gansu Provincial Development and Reform Commission has proposed a capacity price mechanism for power generation, setting a standard of 330 yuan per kilowatt per year starting January 1, 2026, for compliant coal power units and new energy storage [2][17]. - The report emphasizes the potential for stable profitability in coal-fired power generation due to synchronized declines in coal and electricity prices, recommending major coal power companies [3][22]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, while the public utility index fell by 1.37% and the environmental index by 0.49%, with relative returns of -2.46% and -1.58% respectively [1][14]. - In the electricity sector, coal-fired power decreased by 1.04%, hydropower by 2.13%, and new energy generation by 0.68%, while the gas sector saw a slight increase of 0.31% [1][25]. Important Policies and Events - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project was officially launched on July 19, 2025, with a focus on five tiered power stations [1][15]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 1.7% year-on-year increase in industrial power generation in June, with a total of 796.3 billion kilowatt-hours produced [1][16]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends several companies based on their sector performance: - Coal-fired power: Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [3][22]. - New energy: Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy, among others [3][22]. - Nuclear power: China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [3][22]. - Hydropower: Yangtze Power [3][22]. - Gas: China Resources Gas and Jiufeng Energy [3][22]. - Environmental: China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [3][23]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, all rated as "Outperform" [8]. For example, Huadian International has an EPS of 0.46 for 2024 and a PE of 11.7 [8]. Industry Key Data Overview - In June, the total industrial power generation reached 796.3 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [1][48]. - The report notes that coal-fired power generation saw a 1.1% increase, while nuclear power generation grew by 10.3% [1][48]. Environmental Sector Insights - The report indicates that the water and waste incineration sectors are entering a mature phase, with improved free cash flow and declining risk preferences among investors [3][23]. - The domestic waste oil recycling industry is expected to benefit from the EU's SAF blending policy [3][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market fluctuated at a high level this week, with a lot of incremental information on the news front. The domestic economy still faces downward pressure, and the fundamental factors that the bond market relies on have not yet shown an inflection point. As the 10 - year treasury bond yield approaches 1.7%, the opportunities in the bond market outweigh the risks [1][2][3]. - Although the strong stock market suppresses the sentiment of the bond market, the term spread of the 30 - year treasury bond and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond are still low, with limited spread protection [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Super - long Bond Review - The bond market fluctuated at a high level this week. The economic data in June and the second quarter showed strong production but weak domestic demand. The financial data in June showed positive changes, the capital market tightened, the central bank conducted a 1.4 - trillion buy - out repurchase operation with a net injection of 200 billion yuan, and the strong equity market suppressed the bond market sentiment [1][4][12]. - Last week, the trading activity of super - long bonds increased slightly, and both the term spread and variety spread widened [1][4][12]. Super - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of July 18, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 22BP, at a relatively low historical level. The domestic economy in June showed resilience but weak domestic demand. The estimated GDP growth rate in June was about 5.2%, up 0.1% from May, still higher than the annual target. However, the growth rates of social consumption and investment declined significantly. There is still a deflation risk. The bond market opportunities outweigh the risks, but the term spread protection is limited [2][13]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of July 18, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 4BP, at an extremely low historical level. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, the bond market opportunities outweigh the risks, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][14]. Super - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding super - long bonds exceeded 22.2 trillion. As of June 30, the total amount of super - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 22.2528 trillion, accounting for 14.5% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties [15]. - By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 26.3%, local government bonds 67.5%, etc. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety accounted for the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (July 7 - 11, 2025), the issuance volume of super - long bonds increased significantly, reaching 231.4 billion yuan. By variety, treasury bonds were 123 billion yuan, local government bonds 80.7 billion yuan, etc. By term, the 30 - year issuance was 125.8 billion yuan [20]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced issuance plan for this week is 279.7 billion yuan in total. By variety, super - long treasury bonds are 83 billion yuan, super - long local government bonds 181 billion yuan, etc [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of super - long bonds was quite active. The trading volume was 1.2068 trillion yuan, accounting for 13.7% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [28]. Yield - The bond market fluctuated at a high level this week. The yields of different - term super - long bonds of various varieties changed to different degrees. For example, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by 0BP, - 1BP, 1BP, and - 1BP respectively to 1.80%, 1.90%, 1.89%, and 1.95% [39]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of super - long bonds widened, but the absolute level was low. The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 22BP, up 1BP from the previous week, at the 6% quantile since 2010 [50]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of super - long bonds widened, with a low absolute level. The spreads between the 20 - year CDB bond and treasury bond, and between the 20 - year railway bond and treasury bond were 4BP and 7BP respectively, both up 1BP from the previous week, at the 6% and 4% quantiles since 2010 [51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2509 of the 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 120.46 yuan, a decrease of 0.12%. The total trading volume was 438,300 lots (a decrease of 52,833 lots), and the open interest was 150,000 lots (a decrease of 1,106 lots), with both trading volume and open interest decreasing slightly [58].

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic report indicates a seasonal rebound in high-frequency indicators, with consumer performance remaining strong. The domestic economic growth momentum is improving, as evidenced by the positive shift in the macro diffusion index [8][9] - The report predicts an upward trend in the ten-year government bond yield and a downward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of July 25, 2025 [8] Industry and Company - The electric power equipment and new energy sector is expected to see increased demand for distribution equipment due to the approval of China's first cross-regional green electricity direct connection project [24] - The securities industry is experiencing a revival in equity refinancing, with several firms announcing plans to raise capital to support business expansion and innovation [26][27] - In the telecommunications sector, companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinye Sheng are forecasting significant profit growth for the first half of 2025, driven by demand for high-speed optical modules [28] - Dongfang Electric is poised to benefit from the commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with expected profit growth in the coming years [32] - Teruid's performance is projected to grow rapidly, with a forecasted net profit increase of 50%-80% for the first half of 2025, supported by strong overseas expansion [34][35] Financial Engineering - The convertible bond market is seeing strong demand for allocation, with a notable increase in the average price of convertible bonds and a decrease in the average conversion premium [13][14] - The report highlights the performance of various sectors, with semiconductor products and equipment, automotive, and software sectors receiving significant capital inflows [20][21]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月20日 海外资管机构月报 6 月美国股票型基金涨幅中位数 4.5%，大盘成长风格基金持 续领涨 美国公募基金市场月度收益 2025 年 6 月，美国股票型基金业绩强于国际股票基金、债券基金和资产配 置基金。具体来看，6 月美国股票型基金、国际股票型基金、债券型基金、 资产配置型基金收益中位数分别为 4.48%、3.59%、1.10%、3.32%。 美国非货币公募基金资金流向 按管理方式：2025 年 6 月，主动管理型基金整体净流出 231 亿美元，被动 基金整体净流入 696 亿美元。 按资产类型：2025 年 6 月美国市场开放式基金中，债券型基金资金净流 入较多，为 283 亿美元，股票型基金资金净流出较多，为 727 亿美元。 2025 年 6 月，美国市场 ETF 中，股票型、债券型 ETF 资金净流入较多， 分别达 620 亿、232 亿美元。 值得注意的是，在股票型基金中，开放式基金与 ETF 资金流向相反，表现 为资金流出开放式基金并流入 ETF。 头部资管机构资金净流入 美国开放式基金规模 Top10 资管机构除了 Fidelity Investments、 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月20日 ETF 周报 本周科技 ETF 领涨，其中 AI ETF 涨幅中位数近 7% 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2025 年 07 月 14 日至 2025 年 07 月 18 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 1.37%。宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 涨跌幅中位 数为 3.17%，收益最高。按板块划分，科技 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 2.39%， 收益最高。按主题进行分类，AI ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 6.87%，收益最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 157.56 亿元，总体规模增加 279.82 亿元。在 宽基 ETF 中，上周科创板 ETF 净申购最多，为 3.25 亿元；按板块来看， 大金融 ETF 净申购最多，为 41.04 亿元；按热点主题来看，芯片 ETF 净申购最多，为 43.20 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看， 消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒、光伏 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低。与前周相比，科 ...