Core Insights - The report recommends focusing on the CXO sector within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, highlighting its global competitiveness and long-term growth potential [6][4] - The investment strategy maintains an "outperform" rating for the sector, with a specific portfolio of recommended stocks for December 2025 [2][6] Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry saw a cumulative revenue of 199.55 billion yuan from January to October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, while total profits decreased by 3.5% to 26.98 billion yuan [10][9] - The retail sales of Western and Chinese medicines reached 595.5 billion yuan, with a modest growth of 1.5% year-on-year [10][9] Investment Strategy - The recommended investment portfolio for December 2025 includes notable A-shares such as Mindray Medical (迈瑞医疗), WuXi AppTec (药明康德), and Aier Eye Hospital (爱尔眼科), among others [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the clinical progress and data readouts of innovative drugs in overseas markets, as these factors can enhance the commercial viability of domestic products [6] Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 3.62% in November 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.16% [11] - The medical services sub-sector faced the most significant drop, with a decrease of 7.77%, while the pharmaceutical commercial sector saw a slight increase of 1.27% [17][11] Valuation Insights - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is relatively high, with a current PE (TTM) of 37.71, placing it at the 79.87 percentile of its historical range over the past five years [19][20] - The premium rates of the pharmaceutical sector compared to the CSI 300 and the entire A-share market remain at historical averages [19][20] Recent Developments - In November 2025, eight innovative drugs or biosimilars were approved for market entry, including products from Pfizer and domestic companies, indicating a robust pipeline for new therapies [25][26] - The report tracks the NDA and IND applications for innovative drugs, highlighting ongoing research and development activities within the industry [27][28]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月24日 金融工程日报 沪指震荡攀升录得六连阳，商业航天概念再度爆发 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20251224 大部分指数处于上涨状态，规模指数中中证 2000 指数 表现较好，板块指数中科创 100 指数表现较好，风格指数中中证 500 成长指 数表现较好。国防军工、电子、建材、轻工制造、计算机行业表现较好，农 林牧渔、煤炭、食品饮料、银行、家电行业表现较差。毫米波、玻璃纤维、 卫星互联网、商业航天、MLCC 等概念表现较好，钨矿、黄金精选、动物保健 精选、乳业、猪瘟疫苗等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20251224 收盘时有 86 只股票涨停，有 6 只股票跌停。昨日涨停 股票今日收盘收益为 2.54%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-1.12%。今日封 板率 75%，较前日提升 6%，连板率 28%，较前日提升 2%。 市场资金流向：截至 20251223 两融余额为 25316 亿元，其中融资余额 25146 亿元，融券余额 170 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 11.3%。 折溢价：20251223 当日 ETF 溢价较多 ...

========= - The report tracks the dividend progress of constituent stocks in major indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, noting the number of companies at different stages of the dividend process[1][13] - The dividend yield of stocks with announced dividend plans is highest in the coal, banking, and steel industries[2][14] - The realized and remaining dividend yields for the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices as of December 24, 2025, are provided, with the SSE 50 having the highest realized yield at 2.70%[3][16] - The annualized premium and discount rates for the main contracts of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures as of December 24, 2025, are tracked, with IM having the highest annualized discount rate at -8.67%[4][12] - The methodology for calculating index dividend points is briefly reviewed, including the use of constituent stock weights, dividend amounts, and total market value[5][41] - The process for estimating constituent stock weights, including adjustments for stock price changes and the use of daily closing weights from the China Securities Index Company, is detailed[6][45][46] - The dynamic prediction method for net profit based on historical profit distribution is explained, including the classification of companies into stable and unstable profit distribution categories[7][47][50] - The prediction of dividend payout ratios using historical data and the linear extrapolation method for predicting ex-dividend dates are described[8][51][55] - The accuracy of the index dividend point estimation model is analyzed, showing higher accuracy for the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices compared to the CSI 500 index[9][57][61] - The report includes charts showing the historical premium and discount rates of the main contracts for IH, IF, IC, and IM futures from 2020 to 2025[10][17][18][22] - The historical percentile positions of the basis for IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts are provided, indicating the relative premium levels of these contracts[11][27][29][35] =========

Group 1 - The report highlights that the global asset allocation framework is entering a new era of reconstruction due to factors such as aging population, de-globalization, and rising risk aversion, which keep interest rates at low levels and limit the supply of safe assets [3][6] - It emphasizes the importance of balancing the pursuit of returns and the need for safety in asset allocation, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [3][6] - The report outlines three main strategies for navigating the low-interest-rate era: expanding asset allocation from local to global, shifting focus from narrow high-dividend stocks to broader cash cows, and localizing all-weather strategies [3][13][18] Group 2 - The report discusses the challenges faced by the traditional "60/40" asset allocation strategy, which is being reshaped by three core drivers: irreversible aging population, fragmented geopolitical landscape, and heightened risk aversion due to "black swan" events [6][9] - It introduces a nested cycle approach where long cycles set direction, mid-cycles select sectors, and short cycles identify entry points, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive view to avoid getting lost in short-term volatility [9][10] - The report suggests that in the low-interest-rate environment, investors are forced to pursue higher Sharpe ratio assets, leading to the increasing value of FOF (Fund of Funds) assets, which can enhance returns of traditional stock-bond portfolios [10][15] Group 3 - The report identifies the first countermeasure in the low-interest-rate era as expanding asset allocation from local to global, noting that different countries have varying asset distribution preferences [13][17] - The second countermeasure involves transitioning from a narrow focus on high-dividend stocks to a broader view of cash cows, emphasizing the importance of cash flow certainty behind dividend yields [15][18] - The third countermeasure is the localization of all-weather strategies, which do not rely on precise predictions of future growth and inflation, thus providing a balanced approach in an uncertain macro environment [18][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][61]. Core Viewpoints - The merger of CICC with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities is expected to significantly enhance CICC's capital strength, business network, and overall competitiveness, aligning with policy directions and creating long-term value [1][11]. - Post-merger, CICC's total assets are projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, with a 48% increase in net assets attributable to shareholders, elevating its industry ranking to 4th place [1][12]. - The merger is anticipated to boost CICC's revenue by approximately 32% and net profit by about 45% by 2025, improving its industry rankings to 3rd and 6th respectively [1][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Mergers and Acquisitions - The merger is seen as a strategic move to consolidate resources and enhance long-term value through reasonable valuation, advantageous pricing, and potential synergies [7][11]. - The integration is expected to create significant operational synergies, particularly in capital utilization, wealth management, and investment banking [2][21]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for CICC are as follows: 22,990 million yuan in 2023, 21,333 million yuan in 2024, and an estimated 26,901 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 26.1% [4]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 6,156 million yuan in 2023 to 8,233 million yuan in 2025, marking a growth of 44.6% [4]. Business Synergies - The merger will enhance wealth management capabilities, increasing the number of business outlets by approximately 80% to over 400, and expanding the customer base by over 50% to more than 14 million [2][37]. - The investment banking team will grow by over 300 personnel, allowing for better coverage of leading enterprises and international business [2][46]. Strategic Goals - CICC aims to become a comprehensive modern investment bank by 2025, focusing on integrating human resources, capital, and data to enhance global reach and service capabilities [3][61]. - The merger is a critical catalyst for accelerating CICC's strategic goals and significantly improving its competitive edge and international influence [3][61].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月24日 国信资配体系概览 低利率时代资产配置攻略 资产配置研究·资配体系 | 证券分析师： | 王开 | 021-60933132 | wangkai8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521030001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 陈凯畅 | 021-60375429 | chenkaichang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090002 | 摘要： 2025 年全球大类资产行情大开大合，风险资产与避险资产共创新高，不论是与分子端背离的中国股市，还 是逼空行情下与长期估值体系脱敏的贵金属，全球变局下的资产配置体系进入重构新时代。具体来看：① 人口老龄化、逆全球化、避险情绪升温导致利率中枢长期处于低位、安全资产供给受限，资配框架需要找 到追逐收益和寻求安全之间的平衡点。②"长周期定方向，中周期选赛道，短周期找买点"是周期嵌套的 要诀，对"资产习性"的定量化洞察则是识别优质资产的重要手段。③低利率时代的三大应对策略："从 本土化到全球化的资产拓圈"、"从狭义高股息到广 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][61]. Core Viewpoints - The merger of CICC with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities is expected to significantly enhance CICC's capital strength, business network, and overall competitiveness, aligning with policy directions and creating long-term value [1][11]. - Post-merger, CICC's total assets are projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, with a 48% increase in net assets attributable to shareholders, elevating its industry ranking to 4th place [1][12]. - The merger is anticipated to boost CICC's revenue by approximately 32% and net profit by about 45% by 2025, improving its industry rankings to 3rd and 6th respectively [1][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Mergers and Acquisitions - Mergers create value through reasonable valuation, advantageous pricing, and potential synergy from integration [7][10]. - The merger aligns with national policies aimed at developing leading investment banks and enhancing resource integration capabilities [11]. Financial Performance and Projections - CICC's revenue is expected to grow from 22.99 billion yuan in 2023 to 43.56 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4][63]. - Net profit is projected to increase from 6.16 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.40 billion yuan by 2027, with a significant growth rate of 44.6% in 2025 [4][63]. Business Synergies and Integration - The merger will enhance capital utilization efficiency, with CICC's leverage potentially increasing from an average of 5.4 times to a higher level post-merger [2][21]. - Wealth management is identified as a key area for synergy, with an expected increase in the number of business outlets by approximately 80%, reaching over 400 [2][37]. - The investment banking and asset management sectors will benefit from the integration of teams and resources, enhancing overall capabilities [2][46]. Strategic Development - CICC aims to become a comprehensive modern investment bank by 2025, focusing on customer-centric services and global expansion [3][61]. - The merger is seen as a catalyst for accelerating CICC's strategic goals and enhancing its competitive edge and international influence [3][61].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the livestock industry's cyclical reversal, with potential growth opportunities arising from the interconnection between meat and dairy sectors [1][5] - The beef market is expected to experience a significant price increase due to a reduction in supply, with a projected gap similar to the 2019 African swine fever cycle, leading to a bullish outlook until 2028 [5][6][8] - The dairy market is currently at a low point, but signs of recovery are anticipated by 2026, driven by a reduction in milk supply and an increase in processing capacity [17][28] Summary by Sections Beef Market Outlook - As of December 2025, the average price of beef in major production areas is 65.73 CNY/kg, up 16% from the year's low, while fresh milk prices have decreased by approximately 3% to 3.02 CNY/kg [4] - The beef price-to-milk price ratio has reached a historical high of nearly 22, indicating a strong market for beef [4] - The industry is expected to see a significant reduction in beef supply due to the elimination of mother cows, with a supply gap projected to widen until 2028 [5][6][8] Dairy Market Outlook - The average price of fresh milk is projected to remain low until 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026 as the supply of dairy cows begins to tighten [17][28] - The report notes that the proportion of mature dairy cows in the industry has reached historical highs, suggesting that the rate of culling will exceed the rate of replenishment, indicating an impending supply shortage [17][28] - The expansion of deep processing capacity in the dairy sector is expected to enhance demand for raw milk, potentially leading to an earlier-than-expected market recovery [17][23] Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The livestock sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently around 1, which is at the 20th percentile of its historical cycle, indicating room for valuation recovery [27] - The report recommends focusing on dairy farming stocks, as improvements in raw milk prices are expected to benefit profitability, while the beef cycle's upward trend will enhance earnings from culling and calf sales [28] - Key companies highlighted for investment include Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming, which are expected to benefit from the synergistic growth of the meat and dairy sectors [28]

Group 1: Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Sector - The pharmaceutical sector underperformed the overall market, with a total A-share decline of 0.07%, while the biopharmaceutical sector saw a slight decrease of 0.14% [7] - Recent policies have been introduced to support service consumption, particularly in healthcare, which is expected to enhance the demand for medical services [8] - The medical service market is projected to reach approximately 8.74 trillion yuan by 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 10% [8] - Companies with innovative capabilities in the medical service sector, such as Aier Eye Hospital and Gushengtang, are recommended for investment [8] Group 2: Machinery and AI Infrastructure - The competition in humanoid robots is intensifying, with significant opportunities for specialized robots in various fields [9] - AI infrastructure is expected to see substantial growth, particularly in gas turbine technology, which is crucial for data centers [10] - Companies like Anyflow and Wanzhe are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for AI-related energy solutions [10] - Liquid cooling technology is becoming a trend in data centers, with significant revenue growth reported by leading suppliers [11] Group 3: Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The industrial power generation volume for the first eleven months of 2025 was 88.567 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [15] - The public utility sector has shown mixed performance, with the public utility index declining by 0.59% [14] - Recommendations include major thermal power companies and renewable energy leaders, as the government continues to support the development of renewable energy [18] Group 4: Chemical Industry - The price of phosphoric acid has increased, with the market average reaching 10,830 yuan per ton, a year-on-year rise of 3.14% [19] - The company is expected to benefit from the rising demand for phosphoric acid and the cost advantages of sulfur iron ore in acid production [20] - The company has a complete industrial chain from upstream phosphate resources to downstream nitrogen fertilizers, with a forecasted net profit growth from 9.19 billion yuan in 2025 to 13.60 billion yuan in 2027 [20][23] Group 5: Energy and Green Technology - Huadian Technology has signed a significant contract worth 815 million yuan for a green methanol project, marking a new growth opportunity [21] - The green methanol production capacity in China is expected to reach 10 million tons by 2030, with substantial investment opportunities in related equipment [21] - The company is actively developing hydrogen energy projects and has established a comprehensive supply chain for green hydrogen and methanol production [22]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 滔搏（06110.HK） 三季度流水下滑高单位数，折扣同比加深幅度收窄 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 纺织服饰·服装家纺 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 事项： 公司公告：2026 财年第三季度，集团零售及批发业务之总销售金额按年同比录得高单位数下降。截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，直营门店毛销售面积较上一季末减少 1.3%，较去年同期减少 13.4%。 国信纺服观点：1)流水增长：2026 财年第三季度销售额同比下滑高单位数，线上渠道增速仍好于线下渠道， 但受基数影响，分化较上半年收窄；2）库存折扣：三季度末库存总额同比下降，与销售表现方向一致， 保持良 ...