Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ServiceNow (NOW.N) [6][4]. Core Insights - ServiceNow's subscription revenue for Q2 2025 reached $3.113 billion, reflecting a 21.5% year-over-year growth, exceeding guidance by 2 percentage points [1][9]. - The company has seen a significant increase in large clients, with 528 customers contributing over $5 million in Annual Contract Value (ACV) [1]. - The integration of AI products, particularly in CRM, is expected to drive long-term growth opportunities [4]. Revenue and Profitability - For Q2 2025, ServiceNow achieved total revenue of $3.215 billion, a 22.38% increase year-over-year, with subscription revenue contributing $3.113 billion [9]. - The company reported a non-GAAP operating margin of 29.5%, surpassing guidance by 2.5 percentage points, and a free cash flow margin of 16.5%, up 3 percentage points year-over-year [1][17]. - The current remaining performance obligations (cRPO) reached $10.92 billion, reflecting a 21.5% year-over-year growth, also exceeding guidance [19]. Market Demand and Order Growth - The demand for AI solutions is robust, with net new ACV for ITAM Now Assist increasing nearly sixfold quarter-over-quarter [2]. - The transportation and logistics sectors showed exceptional performance, with net new ACV growth exceeding 100% year-over-year [2]. - The company achieved a 98% renewal rate, indicating strong customer retention [2]. Financial Forecasts - The report projects subscription revenue for 2025 to be between $12.775 billion and $12.795 billion, up from previous estimates of $12.64 billion to $12.68 billion [3][19]. - Expected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 21%, 21.5%, and 21.7%, respectively, with net profits projected at $2.007 billion, $2.911 billion, and $4.013 billion for the same period [4][30]. - The report anticipates a subscription gross margin of 83.5% and an operating margin of 30.5% for 2025 [3]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of 15, 12, and 10 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The report indicates a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 100.4 for 2025, decreasing to 50.2 by 2027 [30].

Economic Performance - Shenzhen's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached CNY 18,322.26 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%[4] - The GDP growth rate in Shenzhen exceeded that of Guangdong Province by 0.9 percentage points, which recorded a growth of 4.2%[4] Foreign Trade - Total import and export volume in Shenzhen decreased by 1.1% year-on-year to CNY 21,675.45 billion, with exports down 7.0% and imports up 9.5%[8] - The proportion of Shenzhen's foreign trade to Guangdong's total trade increased from 46.31% in Q1 to 47.65% in H1 2025[10] Industrial Production - Shenzhen's industrial added value grew by 4.3% year-on-year, slightly above Guangdong's growth of 4.0%[12][13] - High-tech product output saw significant increases, with civilian drones, industrial robots, and 3D printing equipment growing by 59.0%, 38.0%, and 35.8% respectively[12] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Shenzhen fell by 10.9% year-on-year, primarily due to a 15.1% decline in real estate development investment[18] - Industrial technology renovation investment surged by 47.1%, indicating a shift towards modernization[18] Consumer Market - Retail sales in Shenzhen reached CNY 4,948.68 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%[21] - The proportion of Shenzhen's retail sales to Guangdong's total increased from 20.54% at the beginning of the year to 21.58% in H1 2025[22] Financial Sector - The balance of deposits in Shenzhen's financial institutions grew by 5.7% year-on-year, reaching CNY 141,600.14 billion[27] - The loan balance increased by 3.5% year-on-year, totaling CNY 98,469.91 billion[27] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Shenzhen rose by 0.1% year-on-year, outperforming Guangdong's CPI, which fell by 0.4%[29]

Market Overview - In July, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 3.54%, while the public utility index decreased by 0.77% and the environmental index increased by 2.10%. The relative returns for public utilities and environmental sectors were -4.32% and -1.94%, respectively [1][15][23]. - Among the sub-sectors, the environmental sector rose by 1.60%, with thermal power increasing by 1.21%, hydropower decreasing by 4.35%, and new energy generation rising by 0.80% [1][15][24]. Important Policies and Events - The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission announced adjustments to the capacity pricing for coal and gas power plants, effective from January 1, 2026, with coal power set at 165 yuan per kilowatt per year and gas power varying from 165 to 396 yuan depending on the type of gas used [2][16][17]. - The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region proposed a market-oriented reform plan for new energy pricing, setting a benchmark price for coal-fired power at 0.2595 yuan per kilowatt-hour [2][17]. Sector Research - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued guidelines to improve the pricing mechanism for domestic natural gas pipeline transportation, aiming for a unified pricing model and a permitted return rate of approximately 5.7%, down from 8% [3][18][20]. - This new regulation is expected to lower transportation costs for natural gas, benefiting urban gas companies [3][20]. Investment Strategy - Public Utilities: Recommendations include large thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as coal and electricity prices are expected to decline [4][21]. - New Energy: Continued government support for new energy development is anticipated to stabilize profitability, with recommendations for leading companies such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][21]. - Nuclear Power: Expected stable profitability due to growth in installed capacity and generation, with recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4][21]. - Hydropower: High-dividend hydropower stocks are highlighted for their defensive attributes, with Longjiang Power recommended [4][21]. - Gas: Recommendations include China Resources Gas and Jiufeng Energy, which have strong pricing power and strategic advantages [4][21]. Sector Performance - In July, the public utility sector ranked 30th among 31 sectors, while the environmental sector ranked 22nd [1][15][23]. - The performance of various sub-sectors showed mixed results, with water utilities and gas sectors generally performing better than thermal and hydropower sectors [1][15][24]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Huadian International (600027.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.46 yuan, PE ratio at 11.5 [9]. - Longyuan Power (001289.SZ): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.75 yuan, PE ratio at 21.8 [9]. - China Nuclear Power (601985.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.46 yuan, PE ratio at 19.9 [9]. - Longjiang Power (600900.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 1.33 yuan, PE ratio at 21.0 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [5][4]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has shown stronger performance compared to the overall market, with a 2.95% increase in the biopharmaceutical sector while the total A-share market declined by 1.01% [28][4]. - The report highlights significant advancements in Alzheimer's disease treatments presented at the 2025 AAIC conference, with multiple drugs updating their clinical research data [11][5]. - Roche's Trontinemab, a new generation Aβ antibody, demonstrated a 91% clearance rate of Aβ plaques in high-dose groups during Phase 1b/2a trials, indicating promising safety and efficacy [2][12]. Market Performance - The overall A-share market decreased by 1.01%, while the biopharmaceutical sector increased by 2.95%, with chemical pharmaceuticals leading with a 5.01% rise [28][4]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the pharmaceutical sector is 39.10x, which is at the 80.69th percentile of its historical valuation over the past five years [33][4]. Key Companies and Investment Ratings - Mindray Medical (300760.SZ): Outperform, market cap 275.5 billion, projected net profit for 2024A is 11.67 billion [4]. - WuXi AppTec (603259.SH): Outperform, market cap 267 billion, projected net profit for 2024A is 9.35 billion [4]. - New Industries (300832.SZ): Outperform, market cap 42.6 billion, projected net profit for 2024A is 1.83 billion [4]. - Huatai Medical (688617.SH): Outperform, market cap 39.4 billion, projected net profit for 2024A is 670 million [4]. - Aier Eye Hospital (not listed): Outperform, focusing on rapid expansion in the ophthalmology service sector [37]. Clinical Research Developments - Trontinemab's Phase 1b/2a study showed significant reductions in Aβ plaque levels, with the 3.6 mg/kg dose group achieving a mean reduction from 119 CL to 21 CL after 12 weeks [14][12]. - The report emphasizes the strategic focus of overseas pharmaceutical companies on CNS (central nervous system) drug development, particularly in Alzheimer's treatments [2][25]. Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring the domestic and international AD detection and treatment drug-related industry chain, highlighting the potential for growth in this area [2][25].

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月04日 可交换私募债跟踪 私募 EB 每周跟踪（20250728-20250801） 固定收益快评 | 证券分析师： | 王艺熹 | 021-60893204 | wangyixi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522100006 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 赵婧 | 0755-22940745 | zhaojing@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513080004 | | 联系人： | 吴越 | 021-60375496 | wuyue8@guosen.com.cn | | 我们定期梳理从公开渠道可获得的最新的可交换私募债（私募 EB）项目情况，对私募可交换债项目做基本 要素跟踪，私募发行条款发行过程可能有更改，请以最终募集说明书为准，发行进度请与相关主承销商咨 询。 本周无新增项目信息；（部分项目因合规原因未予列示） 风险提示 项目获批进度不及预期，经济增速下滑。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 证券研究报告 表1：私募 EB 每周跟踪(2025-0 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: 景顺长城保守养老目标一年持有 A - **Model Construction Idea**: The fund aims to achieve long-term stable growth of pension assets through diversified asset allocation and fund selection, focusing on risk control and volatility management[32][34] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation**: The fund uses a two-layer asset allocation model to control portfolio risk and strive to exceed benchmark returns. Strategic allocation is based on risk budget, while tactical allocation dynamically adjusts asset proportions based on macroeconomic, technical, and market sentiment factors[35] - **Quantitative and Qualitative Fund Selection**: The fund combines quantitative and qualitative methods to select outstanding fund managers and fund varieties within each asset class. This involves continuous tracking and evaluation to form a fund pool and construct a fund-of-funds portfolio[36][38] - **Risk Control Strategy**: Daily tracking of portfolio performance, regular position analysis, and stress testing. Adjustments are made when there are deviations in sub-fund styles, manager changes, or better alternatives[39] - **Bond, Stock, and Hong Kong Stock Connect Investment Strategy**: For bond investments, the fund manager determines duration and asset allocation based on macroeconomic and interest rate forecasts. For stocks and Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks, the focus is on fundamental research and valuation assessment[39] - **Model Evaluation**: The fund has demonstrated effective risk control and stable net value, with a maximum drawdown of less than 1% during periods of market volatility[40][41] Model Backtest Results - **景顺长城保守养老目标一年持有 A**: - **Annualized Return**: 5.13%[41] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 0.88%[41] - **Net Value Volatility**: 1.70%[43] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 2.94[41] - **Calmar Ratio**: 5.81[41] - **Probability of Positive Return for 3-Month Holding Period**: 100%[44] - **Minimum Return for 3-Month Holding Period**: 0.43%[44] - **Maximum Return for 3-Month Holding Period**: 2.58%[44] - **Longest Duration Without New High**: 41 days[44] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: 宏观经济指标 - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the performance of macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, fiscal policy, and industrial production[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Selection of relevant indicators to form a comprehensive scoring model based on factor signals, which ranks assets and dynamically adjusts asset allocation proportions[35][38] Factor Name: 技术指标 - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects market factors such as capital flows, asset price volatility, and price trends[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Similar to macroeconomic indicators, relevant technical indicators are selected to form a comprehensive scoring model based on factor signals[35][38] Factor Name: 市场情绪指标 - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects market sentiment through trading data and implied volatility[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Selection of relevant sentiment indicators to form a comprehensive scoring model based on factor signals[35][38] Factor Backtest Results - **景顺长城保守养老目标一年持有 A**: - **Annualized Return**: 5.13%[41] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 0.88%[41] - **Net Value Volatility**: 1.70%[43] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 2.94[41] - **Calmar Ratio**: 5.81[41] - **Probability of Positive Return for 3-Month Holding Period**: 100%[44] - **Minimum Return for 3-Month Holding Period**: 0.43%[44] - **Maximum Return for 3-Month Holding Period**: 2.58%[44] - **Longest Duration Without New High**: 41 days[44]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a benchmark for K12 quality education transformation, focusing on the South China market and achieving steady growth [1][13]. - The company has completed its K9 transformation post "double reduction" policy, with a projected revenue of 1.102 billion RMB in 2024, representing a 125% increase [1][24]. - The company benefits from a comprehensive licensing system and local reputation, with a significant market share in Guangzhou [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in K12 extracurricular education services in South China, with a focus on quality education and a diversified business model [13]. - It has established a strong brand presence and operational experience over 20 years, adapting to regulatory changes and market demands [13][22]. Revenue Structure - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.102 billion RMB, with the revenue breakdown being 64.8% from quality education, 18.8% from full-time review, and 16.4% from tutoring projects [26][29]. - The quality education segment saw a remarkable growth of 411.7%, driven by innovative course offerings [29][30]. Growth Drivers - High retention rates support enrollment growth, with a projected retention rate of 91% for the spring of 2025 [2][3]. - There is significant potential for expansion in surrounding areas of Guangzhou, with plans to open new outlets [2][3]. - The introduction of programming courses aligns with the growing demand for AI education, potentially creating new revenue streams [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 1.974 billion RMB in 2025, with a net profit of 329 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 79.1% and 70.8% respectively [4][24]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.23 RMB in 2024 to 0.39 RMB in 2025 [4][24]. Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned to benefit from the rigid demand in the K12 education sector, with a focus on regional deepening strategies and shareholder returns [3][4]. - The report suggests a valuation correction is likely due to the company's strong local reputation and licensing advantages, with a target market capitalization of 5.37 to 5.73 billion HKD [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [5][4]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has shown stronger performance compared to the overall market, with a 2.95% increase in the biopharmaceutical sector while the total A-share market declined by 1.01% [28]. - The report highlights significant advancements in Alzheimer's disease treatments presented at the 2025 AAIC conference, with multiple drugs updating their clinical research data [11][25]. - Roche's Trontinemab, a new generation Aβ antibody, demonstrated a 91% clearance rate of Aβ plaques in high-dose groups during Phase 1b/2a trials, indicating promising efficacy and safety [2][12]. Market Performance - The overall A-share market decreased by 1.01%, while the biopharmaceutical sector increased by 2.95%, with chemical pharmaceuticals leading with a 5.01% rise [28]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the pharmaceutical sector is 39.10x, which is at the 80.69th percentile of its historical valuation over the past five years [28][33]. Key Companies and Investment Ratings - Mindray Medical (300760.SZ): Outperform, market cap 275.5 billion, projected net profit for 2024A is 11.67 billion [4]. - WuXi AppTec (603259.SH): Outperform, market cap 267 billion, projected net profit for 2024A is 9.35 billion [4]. - New Industries (300832.SZ): Outperform, market cap 42.6 billion, projected net profit for 2024A is 1.83 billion [4]. - Huatai Medical (688617.SH): Outperform, market cap 39.4 billion, projected net profit for 2024A is 670 million [4]. - Aier Eye Hospital (not listed in the table): Outperform, focusing on rapid expansion in the ophthalmology service sector [37]. Recommended Stocks - Mindray Medical: Strong R&D and sales capabilities, benefiting from domestic medical infrastructure and product upgrades [37]. - WuXi AppTec: Comprehensive service capabilities in new drug R&D, poised to benefit from the global outsourcing market [37]. - Aier Eye Hospital: Leading position in the domestic ophthalmology service sector, with a rapid expansion strategy [37].

Core Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [7] - The report highlights the expected stable growth in domestic demand driven by the "old-for-new" policy, while external sales may face challenges due to U.S. tariff policies [15][17] - Key recommended companies include Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances, with a focus on those with strong overseas growth potential and efficient operations [14][15][17] Monthly Research Tracking and Investment Insights - In August, the white goods production volume decreased by 5% year-on-year, with domestic sales experiencing a slowdown due to the seasonal demand drop and adverse weather conditions [20][21] - The report notes that in June, domestic sales of major home appliances showed robust growth, with air conditioners, refrigerators, and range hoods achieving over 10% growth [27][29] - U.S. retail sales of home appliances grew by 0.7% year-on-year in June, with inventory levels rising, indicating a stable demand despite tariff impacts [30][33] Key Data Tracking - The home appliance sector experienced a relative decline of 2.90% in July compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 3.54% [35][37] - In July, the prices of copper and aluminum decreased by 1.9% and 0.4% respectively, while cold-rolled steel prices increased by 15.8% [38][40] - Shipping indices showed a significant decline in rates for routes to the U.S. West and East coasts, while European routes saw a slight increase [48][49] Key Company Announcements and Industry Dynamics - The report indicates that the home appliance market in China saw significant growth in H1 2025, particularly in the cleaning appliance segment, which grew by 30% year-on-year [52] - The kitchen appliance market is expected to show resilience, with stable performance from leading companies like Robam Appliances, which is focusing on expanding its product categories [15][52] - The report also highlights the ongoing adjustments in the home appliance sector, with companies like Ecovacs and Roborock showing strong overseas growth and product diversification [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [6][10]. Core Insights - Recent financial reports from major overseas tobacco companies for H1 2025 show overall stable performance, with new tobacco products continuing to drive growth. British American Tobacco, Philip Morris International, and Japan Tobacco have all raised their annual forecasts [18]. Summary by Relevant Sections British American Tobacco (BAT) - For H1 2025, BAT reported revenues of £12.069 billion, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year, with new tobacco products accounting for 13.7% of total revenue [2][19]. - The revenue from heated tobacco products was £440 million, showing a slight increase of 0.8%, while the revenue from new oral tobacco products surged by 38.1% to £470 million [20][21]. Philip Morris International (PMI) - PMI's Q2 2025 net revenue reached $10.14 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, with smoke-free tobacco products making up 41.6% of total revenue [3][28]. - The global shipment of heated tobacco units was 38.8 billion, up 9.2% year-on-year, with IQOS market share in Japan increasing to 31.7% [29]. Japan Tobacco - Japan Tobacco reported Q2 2025 revenues of ¥907.6 billion, a 9.4% increase year-on-year, with heated tobacco product shipments rising by 31.2% [4][38]. - The company has adjusted its annual revenue growth forecast to 8.4% and operating profit growth to 14.6% [38]. Altria - Altria's Q2 2025 revenue was $6.1 billion, down 1.7% year-on-year, with oral tobacco product revenue increasing by 5.9% [5][12]. Market Overview - The light industry sector experienced a relative return of +0.16% last week, despite a decline of 1.59% in the overall sector [6][9]. - Furniture retail sales in June increased by 28.7% year-on-year, while building materials sales saw a decline of 8.9% [6][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Kuka Home, as well as in the paper and packaging sectors, highlighting Sun Paper and Yutong Technology as key investment opportunities [9][16].