Market Overview - On January 26, 2026, the North Exchange 50 index fell by 1.45%[1] - The average market capitalization of the North Exchange component stocks is 3.274 billion, with a trading volume of 32.814 billion, a decrease of 0.321 billion from the previous trading day[13] Capital Market News - The State Administration for Market Regulation reported that the Chinese corporate credit index for Q4 2025 was 162.18, reflecting a slight increase of 0.52 points from Q3 2025, indicating a stable and improving credit environment[6] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 150.5 billion reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 207.8 billion from the open market[8] Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to optimize the implementation of the old-for-new policy for consumer goods, aiming to boost consumption of durable goods such as home appliances and automobiles in 2026[9] - Tianjin aims to establish a national brain-computer interface technology innovation center, focusing on key technological breakthroughs and enhancing local innovation capabilities[11] Company Announcements - Dayu Biological expects a net loss of 26 to 30 million for 2025, a decline of 25.3% to 8.59% compared to the previous year due to industry challenges[26] - Shibi Bai forecasts a net profit of 50 to 60 million for 2025, a significant turnaround from a loss of 3.675 million the previous year, driven by increased demand for metal composite materials[27] - Oufu Egg Industry anticipates a net profit of 80 to 92 million for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 75.44% to 101.75% due to expanded production capacity and improved market conditions[28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in passenger vehicle demand due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a positive outlook for the first quarter of 2026. Key players in the high-end electric vehicle segment include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, BAIC Blue Valley, and others [21]. - In the heavy truck segment, 2025 saw a total wholesale of 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. The report anticipates a slight growth in domestic sales for 2026, projecting 800,000 to 850,000 units sold [26]. - The bus market is expected to see growth in 2026, with a conservative estimate of 40,000 units sold, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, driven by the continuation of subsidy policies [25]. - The motorcycle market is projected to grow by 14% in 2026, with total sales expected to reach 19.38 million units, including a significant increase in large-displacement motorcycles [22]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The report expects a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026, driven by subsidy policies. Key companies to watch include Jianghuai Automobile and Geely, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles [21]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the heavy truck market saw a total of 1.144 million units sold, with domestic sales reaching 799,000 units. The report forecasts 800,000 to 850,000 units for 2026, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [26]. Buses - The bus market is projected to grow in 2026, with an expected 40% increase in sales to 40,000 units, supported by ongoing subsidy policies [25]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [22].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in passenger vehicle demand due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a positive outlook for the first quarter of 2026. Key players in the high-end electric vehicle segment include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, BAIC Blue Valley, and others [21]. - In the heavy truck segment, 2025 saw a total wholesale of 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. The report anticipates a slight growth in domestic sales for 2026, projecting 800,000 to 850,000 units sold [26]. - The bus market is expected to see growth in 2026, with a conservative estimate of 40,000 units sold, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, driven by the continuation of subsidy policies [25]. - The motorcycle market is projected to grow by 14% in 2026, with total sales expected to reach 19.38 million units, including a significant increase in large-displacement motorcycles [22]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The report expects a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026 due to subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles and established export-oriented companies [21]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the heavy truck market saw a total of 1.144 million units sold, with domestic sales at 799,000 units and exports at 341,000 units. The report forecasts domestic sales of 800,000 to 850,000 units for 2026, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [26]. Buses - The bus market is projected to grow in 2026, with an expected sales volume of 40,000 units, a 40% increase from the previous year, supported by ongoing subsidy policies [25]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector continues to see a decline in holdings, with a shift towards mass-market products. The proportion of active equity funds in the food and beverage sector decreased to 4.04% in Q4 2025, down from 4.18% in Q3 2025, reflecting a 0.14 percentage point decline [9][15] - The report highlights a continued reduction in allocations to alcoholic beverages, while holdings in mass-market products have shown signs of recovery. The proportion of holdings in white liquor decreased by 0.29 percentage points to 2.92% in Q4 2025 [14][17] - Major consumer funds have reduced their allocations to alcoholic beverages, with a notable decrease of 2.22 percentage points in white liquor holdings, while overall food and beverage allocations have increased [17][21] Summary by Sections 1. Food and Beverage Holdings Continue to Decline, Structure Shifts Towards Mass-Market Products - As of Q4 2025, the total scale of active equity fund heavy holdings is approximately 19.4 trillion yuan, with food and beverage holdings at 78.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.01% decline [9][10] - The decline in alcoholic beverage holdings is evident, with white liquor allocations decreasing to 2.92% and beer and pre-mixed drinks also seeing slight reductions [14][15] 2. Holdings Become More Diversified, Capturing Marginal Recovery Themes - The number of heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector has become more diversified, with only Kweichow Moutai remaining in the top 20 heavy holdings [24] - The report notes that the top five stocks with the largest increase in heavy holdings include Baba Foods, Yingjia Gongjiu, Youran Dairy, Ximai Foods, and Modern Animal Husbandry [28][29] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests five key directions for investment: focusing on functional health foods, improving supply chains and product/channel resonance in leading snack companies, expanding quality retail formats, investing in long-lifecycle beverage leaders, and tracking sectors with potential recovery such as dairy and large-scale dining [10][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector continues to see a decline in holdings, with a shift towards mass-market products. The proportion of active equity funds in the food and beverage sector decreased to 4.04% in Q4 2025, down 0.14 percentage points from the previous quarter [9][15] - The report highlights a continued reduction in allocations to alcoholic beverages, while holdings in mass-market products have shown signs of recovery. The proportion of holdings in white liquor decreased by 0.29 percentage points to 2.92% in Q4 2025 [14][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing valuation switching opportunities in five key areas: health food and supplements, leading snack brands, quality retail chains, beverage leaders with long life cycles, and sectors expected to recover from downturns, particularly dairy [29][30] Summary by Sections 1. Holdings Decline and Shift Towards Mass-Market Products - Active equity funds' holdings in the food and beverage sector decreased by 9.01% to 784 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a total market value of approximately 1.94 trillion yuan [9][10] - The decline in holdings is attributed to a preference for technology and other sectors, while the alcoholic beverage sector continues to face downward pressure [10][14] 2. Increased Diversification in Holdings - The number of heavily held stocks in the food and beverage sector has become more diversified, with only Kweichow Moutai remaining in the top 20 heavy holdings [24][28] - The report notes that the top five stocks with the largest increase in heavy holdings include Baba Foods, Yingjia Gongjiu, Youran Dairy, Ximai Foods, and Modern Dairy [28][29] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on five areas for investment: innovative health food, leading snack brands, quality retail chains, beverage leaders, and sectors expected to recover from downturns [29][30] - It emphasizes the need to pay attention to the health food sector, which is expected to benefit from an expanding consumer base and product innovation [29][30]

2025 年业绩预告点评：订单兑现收入高增， 继续看好 AI ASIC 产业趋势 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2,338 | 2,322 | 3,154 | 5,661 | 8,612 | | 同比（%） | (12.73) | (0.69) | 35.84 | 79.49 | 52.11 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (296.47) | (600.88) | (448.92) | 315.20 | 805.06 | | 同比（%） | (501.64) | (102.68) | 25.29 | 170.21 | 155.41 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (0.56) | (1.14) | (0.85) | 0.60 | 1.53 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | (366.46) | (180.81) | (242.01) | 344.67 | 134.95 | [Ta ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by strong order fulfillment, particularly in the AI ASIC sector, with a projected revenue increase of 35.84% in 2025 [7] - The company has seen a substantial increase in new orders, with a total of 5.96 billion yuan in new orders for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 103.41% [7] - The company’s R&D expenses are expected to decrease as a percentage of revenue, indicating improved efficiency in resource allocation [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 3,154 million yuan in 2025, with further increases to 5,661 million yuan in 2026 and 8,612 million yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be -448.92 million yuan in 2025, turning positive with 315.20 million yuan in 2026 and 805.06 million yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.85 yuan in 2025 to 1.53 yuan in 2027 [1][8] Business Performance - The company’s volume business revenue is expected to grow by 73.98% year-on-year in 2025, while chip design revenue is projected to increase by 20.94% [7] - The company has maintained a high level of orders, with a backlog of 50.75 billion yuan at the end of 2025, indicating strong future revenue potential [7] - The company’s revenue from data processing is expected to grow by over 95%, contributing approximately 34% to total revenue [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the waste incineration sector, particularly in overseas markets, with a projected investment scale of approximately 250 billion yuan for waste incineration in ASEAN countries and India [10][11] - The report highlights the significant increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 70.9% in 2025, indicating a strong trend towards electrification in the sanitation industry [20][30] - The report outlines a strategic focus for 2026, emphasizing value and growth resonance driven by dual carbon goals, with recommendations for companies that can leverage these trends [24][28] Industry Trends - **Waste Incineration Growth**: The report estimates a conservative increase of about 500,000 tons/day in waste incineration capacity in ASEAN and India, corresponding to an investment opportunity of around 250 billion yuan [10] - **Sanitation Equipment**: In 2025, the total amount for successful bids for unmanned sanitation equipment exceeded 12.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 150% [17] - **Electric Vehicle Penetration**: The penetration rate of new energy sanitation vehicles reached 21.11% in 2025, up 7.67 percentage points year-on-year [30] Company Recommendations - **Key Recommendations**: The report recommends companies such as Longjing Environmental, Gao Neng Environment, and Sains for their strong growth potential in the waste incineration and sanitation sectors [4] - **Focus on Overseas Growth**: Companies like Weiming Environmental and Sanfeng Environment are highlighted for their potential to exceed expectations in overseas markets [15] - **Dividend and ROE Enhancement**: Companies such as Huanlan Environment and Green Power are noted for their strategies to enhance dividends and return on equity [15][24] Market Performance - **Sanitation Vehicle Sales**: The total sales of sanitation vehicles in 2025 reached 76,346 units, with a year-on-year increase of 8.82% [20] - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: New energy sanitation vehicle sales reached 16,119 units, reflecting a significant increase of 70.9% year-on-year [20][30] - **Market Concentration**: The report notes that the market concentration for new energy sanitation vehicles is decreasing, with leading companies like Yingfeng Environment and Yutong Heavy Industry maintaining significant market shares [21][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential in waste incineration and the opportunities for companies to expand overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia and India, where there is a projected increase in waste incineration capacity [10][15] - The report highlights the significant increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles and the growth of unmanned sanitation projects, indicating a shift towards automation and electrification in the industry [17][20] - The 2026 strategy focuses on the dual drivers of value and growth, emphasizing the importance of marketization and efficiency improvements in the environmental sector [24][28] Industry Trends - Waste Incineration Growth: The report estimates a potential increase of approximately 500,000 tons/day in waste incineration capacity in ASEAN countries and India, corresponding to an investment scale of about 250 billion yuan [10] - Unmanned Sanitation Equipment: In 2025, the total amount of contracts for unmanned sanitation projects exceeded 12.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of over 150% [17] - New Energy Sanitation Vehicles: Sales of new energy sanitation vehicles increased by 70.9% in 2025, with a penetration rate of 21.11%, reflecting a growing trend towards electrification in the sanitation sector [20][30] Company Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Longjing Environmental, Gao Neng Environment, Sains, and others, focusing on their growth potential in both domestic and international markets [4][15] - The report suggests that companies like Weiming Environmental and Sanfeng Environment are expected to benefit significantly from overseas expansion and high-value projects [15][24] - The report also highlights the importance of dividend increases and return on equity (ROE) improvements for companies such as Huanlan Environment and Green Power [15][24] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the profitability of waste incineration projects in Indonesia is significantly higher than in China due to favorable pricing and operational conditions [12][15] - The report indicates that the market for lithium battery recycling is improving, with rising metal prices and better margins for recycling projects [38][39]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260126 转债建议同时关注高胜率顺周期标的 2026 年 01 月 26 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 2026-01-26 证券分析师 陈伯铭 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20260119-20260123）》 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 2026-01-25 相关研究 《周观：新的债市震荡区间形成（2026 年第 4 期）》 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 本周（0119－0123）海外方面黄金似乎正在经历一场"完美风 暴"，周涨幅达到 8.4%+，无论公共部门还是私人部门都在积极 配置黄金以应对全球新的地缘逻辑，公共部门"挤出效应"显著， 因此在央行（尤其新兴市场国家）购金潮回落趋势确认、联储货 币政策转向、财政强支出剧本（部分依赖于宽货币）逆转前，很 难给出金价迎来拐点的结论；迎来驻点的概率是否较大？我们 认为这主要取决于中期的"机会成本"，即会否出现其他资产的 风险调整后收益率 ...