证券研究报告·公司点评报告·非白酒 证券分析师 苏铖 百润股份（002568） 积极拥抱新渠道，关注新品节奏 2025 年 05 月 26 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,264 | 3,048 | 3,499 | 3,993 | 4,701 | | 同比（%） | 25.85 | (6.61) | 14.80 | 14.11 | 17.74 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 809.42 | 719.14 | 806.85 | 970.60 | 1,181.04 | | 同比（%） | 55.28 | (11.15) | 12.20 | 20.30 | 21.68 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.77 | 0.92 | 1.13 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 34.12 | 38.41 | 34.23 | 28.46 | 23.39 | [ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, with a continued recovery in recruitment demand [3] - The company is expected to maintain a competitive advantage in the online recruitment sector while actively expanding its AI business, which is anticipated to enhance long-term growth potential [3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5,952.03 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 31.94% - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 1,099.23 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 924.97% - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 is forecasted at 2,156.19 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 169.71% - Adjusted EPS for 2023 is estimated at 4.71 RMB per ADS, with a PE ratio (Non-GAAP) of 25.84 [1][9] Market Demand and User Growth - Positive signals in recruitment demand across multiple industries, with blue-collar and small enterprise contributions continuing to rise - The blue-collar business's contribution to revenue exceeded 39% in Q1 2025, driven by a significant increase in blue-collar users [3] - The contribution from users in third-tier cities and below increased by 3 percentage points to over 23% year-on-year [3] Cost Control and Profitability - The company achieved a gross margin increase of 1.2 percentage points to 84% in Q1 2025 - Sales expense ratio decreased by 8.5 percentage points due to reduced advertising and employee-related costs, indicating improved customer acquisition efficiency [3] - The company maintains a guidance of 3 billion RMB for adjusted operating profit in 2025, supported by enhanced customer acquisition efficiency and AI-driven cost reductions [3] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts Non-GAAP net profits of 3.3 billion RMB, 4.1 billion RMB, and 4.8 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 14, and 12 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BOSS Zhipin (BZ) [1] Core Views - The recruitment demand continues to recover, with positive signals across multiple industries, particularly in blue-collar and small enterprises [3] - The company demonstrates strong cost control, leading to improved profitability [3] - The long-term growth potential is supported by the company's competitive advantages in the online recruitment sector and its active engagement in AI business [3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5,952.03 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 31.94% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1,099.23 million RMB in 2023, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 924.97% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted at 2,156.19 million RMB for 2023, showing a year-on-year growth of 169.71% [1] - The adjusted EPS is estimated to be 4.71 RMB per ADS for 2023, with a PE ratio of 25.84 based on Non-GAAP earnings [1] Market and User Growth - The blue-collar business's contribution to revenue has increased to over 39%, driven by a significant growth in blue-collar users [3] - The revenue contribution from users in third-tier cities and below has increased by 3 percentage points to over 23% [3] - The number of paid enterprise clients reached 6.38 million, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [8]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·其他互联网服务 BOSS 直聘（BZ） 2025Q1 业绩点评：业绩好于预期，招聘需求 继续回暖 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5,952.03 | 7,355.68 | 8,104.59 | | 9,527.95 10,289.15 | | 同比（%） | 31.94 | 23.58 | 10.18 | 17.56 | 7.99 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,099.23 | 1,584.66 | 2,370.40 | 3,160.20 | 3,841.02 | | 同比（%） | 924.97 | 44.16 | 49.58 | 33.32 | 21.54 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 2,156.19 | 2,710.71 | 3,332.42 | 4,113.02 | 4,785.90 | | 同比（%） | 169.71 | 25. ...

2025Q1 业绩公告点评：核心业务高速增长， 利润率显著提升 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 同程旅行（00780.HK） 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,896 | 17,341 | 19,805 | 22,486 | 25,418 | | 同比(%) | 80.67 | 45.77 | 14.21 | 13.54 | 13.04 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,554 | 1,974 | 2,504 | 3,006 | 3,516 | | 同比(%) | 1,164.41 | 27.04 | 26.80 | 20.05 | 16.99 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.85 | 1.07 | 1.29 | 1.51 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.28 | 22.26 | 17.56 | 14.62 | 12.50 | [T ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the short-term impact of AI transformation on the ecosystem significantly affects advertising revenue, while the cloud business shows positive trends [1] - The company's core revenue for Q1 2025 reached RMB 25.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [8] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 6.469 billion, also better than market expectations [8] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI tools to enhance advertising efficiency and the ongoing transformation of Baidu's application ecosystem [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was RMB 134.598 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.83% [1] - The forecast for 2025 estimates total revenue at RMB 134.638 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 1.14% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 was RMB 28.747 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 39.01% [1] - The forecast for 2025 estimates Non-GAAP net profit at RMB 23.046 billion, a decrease of 14.65% [1] Business Segments - Advertising business: Online marketing revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 16 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6% [8] - Cloud business: Revenue grew by 42% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by increased demand for AI cloud services [8] - Autonomous driving business: The number of orders for the "萝卜快跑" service exceeded 1.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 75% [8] Market Position and Strategy - The report notes that Baidu has repurchased shares worth over USD 4.45 billion since Q1 2025, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [8] - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and user experience in its autonomous driving segment to reduce losses [8] - The report adjusts the Non-GAAP net profit forecast for 2025-2027 downwards due to uncertainties in the search business competition [8]

证券分析师：陈刚 执业证书编号：S0600523040001 邮箱：cheng@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理：孔思迈 执业证书编号：S0600124070019 邮箱：kongsm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年5月26日 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 证券研究报告 并购重组跟踪（二十一） 目录 1、上周并购动态回顾 2、风险提示 2 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 1. 上周并购动态回顾 注：上周为5.19-5.25，（如无特殊说明）后文同 3 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 一：政策更新 ✓ 证监会在国新办发布会上强调，要支持科技型上市公司综合运用股份、现金、定向可转债等支付工具实 施重组，提高轻资产科技型企业重组估值 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the short-term impact of AI transformation on the ecosystem significantly affects advertising revenue, while the cloud business shows a positive trend [1] - The company's core revenue for Q1 2025 reached RMB 25.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 6.469 billion, also better than market expectations [1] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI tools to enhance advertising efficiency and the ongoing transformation of Baidu's application ecosystem [1] - The cloud business experienced strong growth, with revenue increasing by 42% year-on-year, driven by the accelerated adoption of AI across various industries [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was RMB 134.598 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.83% [1] - The forecast for 2025 estimates total revenue at RMB 134.638 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 1.14% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 was RMB 28.747 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 39.01% [1] - The forecast for 2025 estimates Non-GAAP net profit at RMB 23.046 billion, a decrease of 14.65% [1] Business Segments - Advertising business: Online marketing revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 16 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6% [1] - Cloud business: Revenue growth accelerated to 42% year-on-year, with significant demand for AI cloud services [1] - Smart driving business: The number of autonomous driving orders exceeded 1.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 75% [1] Valuation Metrics - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 was RMB 7.39, with a forecast of RMB 8.04 for 2025 [1] - The P/E ratio for 2025 is projected to be 9.51 [1] - The report adjusts the Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB 230 billion, RMB 244 billion, and RMB 264 billion respectively [1]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 同程旅行（00780.HK） 2025Q1 业绩公告点评：核心业务高速增长， 利润率显著提升 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,896 | 17,341 | 19,805 | 22,486 | 25,418 | | 同比(%) | 80.67 | 45.77 | 14.21 | 13.54 | 13.04 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,554 | 1,974 | 2,504 | 3,006 | 3,516 | | 同比(%) | 1,164.41 | 27.04 | 26.80 | 20.05 | 16.99 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.85 | 1.07 | 1.29 | 1.51 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.28 | 22.26 | 17.56 | 14.62 | 12.50 | [T ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20250526 "卖出美国"续集：股债汇又"三杀"——全 球市场观察系列 一是，长债拍卖不佳，债市联动股市下跌。一方面，美国 20 年期国债 拍卖需求不佳，导致市场情绪快速回调；另一方面，发达经济体普遍面 临财政赤字扩张压力，全球债券市场联动抛售加剧美债波动。日本 30 年 期国债收益率本周升至 2.1%(2023 年以来新高)，英国 30 年期国债收益 率突破 4.8%。 二是，"Fed Put"进一步撤回。一方面，美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂 克表达了关税对通胀上行的担忧，并重申他预计今年降息 1 次（市场预 期 2 次）。另一方面，在美债需求疲软之际，美联储理事沃勒表示美联 储不会在一级拍卖中购买债券，重申了美联储避免直接参与政府债券发 行的政策立场。 三是，地缘风险再起。以色列准备打击伊朗核设施，地缘政治风险再起， 市场避险情绪显著升温，美股在此影响下走弱。 短期内，我们认为美股继续以震荡为主。一是，长端美债利率重回 4.5% 附近，不仅加剧特朗普后续减税政策的掣肘，且对美股进一步拔估值形 成压制。二是，地缘政治风险依旧不容忽视，警惕短期内地缘可能带来 的外 ...