北交所定期报告 20250526 中办、国办印发《关于完善中国特色现代企 业制度的意见》 证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 风险提示：个股盈利不及预期，行业竞争加剧，贸易摩擦加剧，政策不及 预期等。 2025 年 05 月 26 日 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 薛路熹 执业证书：S0600123070027 xuelx@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《北证 A 股成交小幅回缩，把握中长 期成长板块布局》 2025-05-25 《1-4 月全国新设外资企业增 12.1%， 高技术产业部分行业外资增长显著》 2025-05-23 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summar ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·房地产 房地产行业跟踪周报 LPR 下调 10 基点，持续推进城市更新 2025 年 05 月 26 日 增持（维持） 证券分析师 房诚琦 执业证书：S0600522100002 fangcq@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -23% -18% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 2024/5/27 2024/9/25 2025/1/24 2025/5/25 房地产 沪深300 相关研究 《"三问物业行业"系列报告之三—— 不谋长远者，无以图当下》 2025-05-23 《新房二手房成交面积环比改善，持 续推进城市更新》 2025-05-19 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 投资要点 ◼ 上周（2025.5.19-2025.5.23）：上周房地产板块（中信）涨跌幅-1.5%,同期 沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为-0.2%、-0.6%，超额收益分别为 -1.3%、-0.9%。29 个中信行业板块中房地产位列第 23。 ◼ （1）新房市场：上周 36 城新 ...

证券研究报告 微盘相对红利短期续涨概率<5% ——资金流向和中短线指标体系跟踪（十四） 证券分析师：陈刚 执业证书编号：S0600523040001 邮箱：cheng@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：蒋珺逸 执业证书编号：S0600123040067 邮箱：jiangjy@dwzq.com.cn 2025年5月26日 摘要： ✓ 宏观流动性与资金价格： ➢ 散户：散户情绪回升 ✓ 中短线指标体系跟踪： ➢ 公开市场操作：本期央行公开市场转为净投放，规模达9600亿元，央行已连续3月实现MLF超额续作 ➢ 货币市场利率：央行呵护下资金面整体稳健 ➢ 债券市场利率：债市表现有所分化，信用债强于利率债，国债收益率曲线陡峭化 ➢ 外汇市场：评级下调叠加财政可持续性担忧，美元信用根基受冲击，美元走弱的同时美债冲高，中美 利差走阔，人民币升值 ✓ 微观流动性与A股市场资金面：A股缩量回调，可跟踪资金净流出规模收缩 ➢ 杠杆资金：杠杆资金转为净流出，市场风险偏好下降 ➢ 外资：北向成交热度边际回落，海外被动资金维持净流入，离岸沪深300ETF时隔两周转为净申购 ➢ 公募：偏股基金新发强度回升，主动偏股型仓位小幅上行；E ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (00992.HK) [1] Core Views - Lenovo Group is expected to benefit from the development of AI, with all three major business segments showing comprehensive growth [1][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 69.08 billion USD for FY2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, and a net profit of 1.38 billion USD, up 37.0% year-on-year [7] - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit, with projections for FY2026 and FY2027 being adjusted upwards to 1.60 billion USD and 1.76 billion USD respectively [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY2024A: 56.90 billion USD - FY2025A: 69.08 billion USD - FY2026E: 74.18 billion USD - FY2027E: 79.56 billion USD - FY2028E: 84.26 billion USD - Year-on-year growth rates for FY2025A and FY2026E are 21.41% and 7.38% respectively [1][8] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - FY2024A: 1.01 billion USD - FY2025A: 1.38 billion USD - FY2026E: 1.60 billion USD - FY2027E: 1.76 billion USD - FY2028E: 1.97 billion USD - Year-on-year growth rates for FY2025A and FY2026E are 37.01% and 15.23% respectively [1][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - FY2025A: 0.11 USD - FY2026E: 0.13 USD - FY2027E: 0.14 USD - FY2028E: 0.16 USD [1][8] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratios**: - FY2025A: 10.70 - FY2026E: 9.28 - FY2027E: 8.42 - FY2028E: 7.53 [1][8] Business Segment Insights - **Intelligent Devices Group (IDG)**: - Revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter reached 11.81 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [7] - PC market share increased to 23.8%, with AIPC penetration expected to reach around 25% by 2025 [7] - **Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG)**: - Revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter was 4.12 billion USD, up 62.6% year-on-year [7] - Continuous profitability over two quarters, driven by increased server orders [7] - **Solutions and Services Group (SSG)**: - Revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter was 2.15 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% [7] - Significant growth in hybrid cloud service orders, with an 82% year-on-year increase [7]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 4 月社零总额同比+5.1%维持高增，黄金珠宝 增速亮眼 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [周Table_Summary] 观点（注：文中"本周"指的 5 月 19 日至 5 月 25 日） ◼ 分品类： 2025 年 05 月 26 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张家璇 执业证书：S0600123070017 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -17% -11% -5% 1% 7% 13% 19% 25% 31% 37% 43% 5/27/2024 9/24/2024 1/22/2025 5/22/2025 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究 执业证书：S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S06005 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - IEA, EIA, and OPEC have different forecasts for global crude oil inventory, supply, and demand in 2025. The average forecast for inventory change is -4 barrels per day, remaining flat compared to the previous month. Supply and demand are both expected to increase compared to 2024 [2]. - Non - OECD countries, represented by China, are expected to be the main contributors to the global crude oil demand growth in 2025, while OECD countries' demand growth will be relatively weak [127]. - IEA predicts that the demand for chemical oil will recover significantly in 2025, both globally and in China [136][139]. Summary by Directory 1. Global Crude Oil Inventory - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 global crude oil inventory changes to be +70, +41, -122 barrels per day respectively, with changes of -10, -5, +10 barrels per day compared to April 2025 forecasts. The average inventory change forecast is -4 barrels per day, unchanged from the previous month [2]. 2. Global Crude Oil Supply 2.1 Global Crude Oil Supply Overview - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 crude oil supply to be 10460, 10412, 10378 barrels per day respectively, an increase of 160, 137, 142 barrels per day compared to 2024, and an increase of 30, 2, 10 barrels per day compared to April 2025 forecasts [2]. 2.2 Global Major Regional Crude Oil Supply Situation - **Three - institution regional supply increment forecasts**: IEA expects supply increments in 2025 to be concentrated in OECD and non - OECD countries in the Americas; EIA expects increments in North, Central, and South American countries; OPEC expects increments in OECD countries in the Americas [33][35][40]. - **OPEC+**: In April 2025, the total crude oil production of 12 OPEC countries was 2671 barrels per day, a decrease of 6.2 barrels per day month - on - month. OPEC+ has a total remaining capacity of 644 barrels per day, a decrease of 3 barrels per day month - on - month [43][47]. - **Russia**: In April 2025, Russia's export volume was 760 barrels per day, an increase of 20 barrels per day year - on - year [65]. - **USA**: EIA predicts that the average US crude oil production in 2025 will be 1341 barrels per day, an increase of 21 barrels per day compared to 2024 and a decrease of 9 barrels per day compared to the April 2025 forecast [75]. 3. Global Crude Oil Demand 3.1 Global Crude Oil Demand Overview - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 crude oil demand to be 10390, 10372, 10500 barrels per day respectively, an increase of 70, 98, 125 barrels per day compared to 2024, and changes of +40, +7, -5 barrels per day compared to April 2025 forecasts [2]. - OECD countries' crude oil demand growth in 2025 is expected to be weak, while non - OECD countries' demand will grow significantly, with China potentially leading the growth [127]. 3.3 Global Different Petroleum Product Demand Situation - Globally, IEA predicts that in 2025, the demand for aviation kerosene, diesel, and gasoline will increase by 12, 4, 21 barrels per day respectively compared to 2024, and the demand for LPG, ethane, and naphtha in the chemical sector will increase by 25, 19 barrels per day respectively [136]. - In China, IEA predicts that in 2025, the demand for aviation kerosene, diesel, and gasoline will change by +4, +1, -12 barrels per day respectively compared to 2024, and the demand for LPG, ethane, and naphtha in the chemical sector will increase by 3, 15 barrels per day respectively [139]. Related Listed Companies - Recommended companies include CNOOC, PetroChina, Sinopec, COSL, Offshore Oil Engineering, and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services [3]. - Companies to be noted include Sinopec Oilfield Service, CNPC Engineering, and Sinopec Mechanical Engineering [3].

[Table_Tag] [周Table_Summary] 观点（注：文中"本周"指的 5 月 19 日至 5 月 25 日） ◼ 分品类： 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 4 月社零总额同比+5.1%维持高增，黄金珠宝 增速亮眼 增持（维持） 2025 年 05 月 26 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张家璇 执业证书：S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600123070017 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -17% -11% -5% 1% 7% 13% 19% 25% 31% 37% 43% 5/27/2024 9/24/2024 1/ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is actively embracing new channels and focusing on the rhythm of new product launches, particularly in the instant retail sector, which is expected to drive growth [7] - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the instant retail market for alcoholic beverages, projecting a market size increase from approximately 200 billion RMB in 2023 to 1,000 billion RMB by 2027 [7] - The company aims to leverage the advantages of the Yima delivery platform to enhance brand recognition and reach younger consumer demographics, particularly through its whiskey and other liquor products [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 3,264 million RMB - 2024A: 3,048 million RMB (YoY -6.61%) - 2025E: 3,499 million RMB (YoY +14.80%) - 2026E: 3,993 million RMB (YoY +14.11%) - 2027E: 4,701 million RMB (YoY +17.74%) [1][10] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as follows: - 2023A: 809.42 million RMB - 2024A: 719.14 million RMB (YoY -11.15%) - 2025E: 806.85 million RMB (YoY +12.20%) - 2026E: 970.60 million RMB (YoY +20.30%) - 2027E: 1,181.04 million RMB (YoY +21.68%) [1][10] - The report anticipates a steady increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 0.69 RMB in 2024 to 1.13 RMB in 2027 [1][10] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 26.32 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 27,619.39 million RMB [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio projected to decrease from 38.41 in 2024 to 23.39 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [1][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company plans to acquire 60% of Zhejiang Suote for 696 million yuan, which will enhance its industry position and enrich its patent portfolio [8] - The acquisition is expected to strengthen the company's competitiveness, as Zhejiang Suote has established long-term partnerships with leading firms in the photovoltaic industry [8] - The estimated valuation for Zhejiang Suote is approximately 1.16 billion yuan, with a performance commitment of no less than 287 million yuan in net profit over three years [8] - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 390 million, 520 million, and 670 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 9%, 33%, and 28% [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 15.35 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 59.85% [8] - The company's diluted EPS is expected to be 2.54 yuan in 2024, increasing to 4.72 yuan by 2027 [8] - The P/E ratio is forecasted to be 16.17 in 2024, decreasing to 8.70 by 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.89%, slightly above the company's guidance. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 416 million yuan, down 28.9% year-on-year, primarily due to increased short-term financing costs related to the acquisition of Yonghui Superstores [7] - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.23%, up 0.82 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 13.26%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year. This was mainly due to the higher revenue share from overseas direct sales, which typically has lower profit margins during the off-season [7] - Domestic MINISO revenue reached 2.49 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 9.15% year-on-year, with a net reduction of 111 stores to 4,275 stores as the company focused on optimizing store structure and upgrading the brand [7] - Overseas revenue for MINISO was 1.592 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, with a net addition of 95 stores, bringing the total to 3,213 stores [7] - The TOP TOY brand achieved revenue of 340 million yuan in Q1 2025, up 58.9% year-on-year, with a net increase of 4 stores to 280 stores [7] - The company expects continued growth in both domestic and overseas markets, with adjustments made to profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 13.838 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 39.42%. For 2024A, the forecast is 16.994 billion yuan, representing a 22.80% increase, and for 2025E, it is 20.664 billion yuan, a 21.59% increase [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A is forecasted at 2.253 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 111.48%. For 2024A, it is 2.618 billion yuan, a 16.17% increase, and for 2025E, it is 2.544 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.81% [1] - The Non-IFRS net profit for 2023A is projected at 2.357 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 109.65%. For 2024A, it is 2.721 billion yuan, a 15.44% increase, and for 2025E, it is 2.919 billion yuan, a 7.30% increase [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is 1.79 yuan per share, with a forecast of 2.09 yuan for 2024A and 2.04 yuan for 2025E [1] - The P/E ratio for the current price and latest diluted EPS is 18.51 for 2023A, 15.81 for 2024A, and 16.27 for 2025E [1]