Group 1: Rain Belt Shift and Its Impact - Since 2021, the "northward shift of the rain belt" has significantly increased rainfall duration and volume in North China, leading to more frequent flooding disasters[1] - In 2025, the average rainfall in North China reached 356.6 mm, an increase of 161.1% compared to the historical average, contributing to a national average rainfall of 668 mm, which is 4.5% above normal[6] - Flood disasters in North China caused direct economic losses of approximately 979.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 59% of the national total[15] Group 2: Investment Projections for 2026 - Water-related investments in 2026 are expected to grow significantly, with fixed asset investment in water management and public facilities projected to increase by approximately 0.5 trillion yuan[23] - This increase in water-related investment could boost infrastructure investment by about 2.1 percentage points and overall fixed asset investment by approximately 1.1 percentage points, aiding in stabilizing investment levels[23] - The government plans to enhance flood control infrastructure in North China, with a focus on increasing central budget investments to support disaster recovery and infrastructure improvements[17] Group 3: Policy and Economic Context - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to address the shortcomings in flood control and drainage infrastructure in North China[17] - In the fourth quarter of 2023, the issuance of 1 trillion yuan in government bonds aimed at disaster recovery is expected to lead to a 17.6% increase in fixed asset investment in water, environment, and public facilities in North China[23] - The shift in rainfall patterns has disrupted construction activities, with cement dispatch rates in North China dropping from 50% to 34% during the rainy season in 2025, indicating a significant impact on infrastructure projects[15]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·证券ⅡII 国泰海通（601211） 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 何婷 执业证书：S0600524120009 heting@dwzq.com.cn 2025 年业绩预增点评：扣非净利润同比增长 69-73%，低估值向上空间大 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 36,141 | 43,397 | 54,733 | 67,286 | 70,996 | | 同比（%） | 1.89% | 20.08% | 26.12% | 22.93% | 5.51% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 9,374 | 13,024 | 27,747 | 28,169 | 30,429 | | 同比（%） | -18.54% | 38.94% | 113.04% | 1.52% | 8.02% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guotai Haitong is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Guotai Haitong announced a profit forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.5-28 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 111%-115%. The non-recurring net profit is expected to be 21.1-21.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 69%-73% [2] - The profit growth in 2025 is primarily driven by brokerage, investment banking, and proprietary trading businesses [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 54.733 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26.12% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected at 27.747 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 113.04% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025 is estimated at 1.57 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 12.29 [1] - The fourth quarter is expected to see a non-recurring net profit of 4.8-5.2 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 42-47% due to high base effects and a 1.6 billion yuan impairment provision [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [9]. Core Insights - The company has a strong foothold in the solder paste printing equipment market, holding a 21.2% global market share in 2024, significantly ahead of competitors like ASMPT and ITW [2][62]. - The demand for AI computing power is driving a turning point in the company's performance, with a notable increase in revenue and profit margins expected in the coming years [2][24]. - The company is benefiting from the expansion of automation in the optical module sector, which is transitioning from labor-intensive processes to automated solutions [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Deepening in Solder Paste Printing - The company has been focused on solder paste printing equipment for 20 years, establishing a deep industry moat [2][14]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with key stakeholders holding approximately 61% of the shares, ensuring stable control [15][19]. - Solder paste printing equipment is the core product, contributing 64% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in the share of high-margin III-class equipment [22][28]. 2. AI Computing Power Drives Product Upgrading - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI computing, with significant expansions in the PCB and PCBA sectors [3][42]. - Major clients, including Foxconn and Huawei, are increasing their capital expenditures, which will drive demand for solder paste printing equipment [3][57]. - The company has established a direct sales model, deeply binding with major clients, which enhances its market position [66]. 3. Optical Module Overseas Expansion and Automation - The optical module industry is experiencing a shift towards automation, driven by the need for high precision in assembly processes [4][70]. - The company has successfully delivered fully automated assembly lines for 800G and 1.6T optical modules to overseas clients [4]. 4. Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit, with projections of 1.9 billion, 4.0 billion, and 6.0 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9]. - The current stock price corresponds to dynamic P/E ratios of 74, 35, and 24 for the years 2025 to 2027 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing demand for rocket launch services driven by high payload capacity and reusability, which are key factors in reducing costs. The demand for propellant and launch gases is expected to remain rigid, with their value and market share projected to increase over the long term. The economic viability of rocket launches is becoming a crucial factor for the transition to high-density and standardized launches [4]. - The national winter electricity load has surpassed 1.4 billion kilowatts for the first time, reaching a peak of 1.417 billion kilowatts, with daily electricity consumption exceeding 30 billion kilowatt-hours during winter [4]. Industry Data Tracking - **Electricity Prices**: The average grid purchase price in January 2026 decreased by 8% year-on-year, averaging 374 RMB/MWh [38][44]. - **Coal Prices**: As of January 23, 2026, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 685 RMB/ton, down 0.29% year-on-year and 1.44% week-on-week [45]. - **Water Conditions**: As of January 23, 2026, the water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 169.85 meters, with inflow and outflow rates increasing by 15.8% and 12.8% year-on-year, respectively [52]. - **Electricity Consumption**: From January to November 2025, total electricity consumption reached 9.46 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [13]. - **Power Generation**: Cumulative power generation from January to November 2025 was 8.86 trillion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [23]. - **Installed Capacity**: As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power reached 1.52 billion kilowatts, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [46]. Investment Recommendations - **Green Energy**: The report suggests focusing on companies like Longyuan Power, Zhongmin Energy, and Three Gorges Energy, with a strong recommendation for Longjing Environmental Protection due to the easing of constraints on consumption, pricing, and subsidies for renewable energy [4]. - **Thermal Power**: Companies such as Huaneng International and Huadian International are recommended for their reliability and flexibility in transitioning [4]. - **Hydropower**: Longjiang Power is highlighted for its low-cost benefits and strong cash flow capabilities [4]. - **Nuclear Power**: China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are recommended due to their growth potential and expected increases in profitability and dividends [4]. - **Solar Assets and Charging Stations**: Companies like Southern Power Grid Energy and Longxin Technology are suggested for their potential value reassessment in the market [4].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20260127 如何以量化策略增厚信用债收益？ ——多资产系列报告（三） 如果对 IPCA 模型的因变量、输入特征稍加调整，模型可用于辅助国内传 统的信用利差研究。以城投债为例，模型给出的常数因子是过去 10 年影 响城投债利差的最重要因子，其在客观上影响了基本面因子的重要性；而 同期市场面因子的重要性基本保持区间震荡。这不仅符合近年"化债政策 驱动城投利差"的常识，常数因子拐点也完全对应两次化债政策拐点：① 2018 年 7 月，"27 号文"开启"隐债十年清零"的化债历程。②2023 年 7 月 24 日，中央政治局会议提出要有效防范化解地方债务风险，制定实施 一揽子化债方案。当年 8-9 月，以"35 号文"为代表的一揽子化债政策开 始落地。 考虑到 IPCA 模型可以被近似视为"对 L 个特征驱动的投资组合（X）"应 用 PCA，因此落实到策略层面，我们可以： 不难算得，以国内活跃发债主体为样本范围时，上述基于 IPCA 因子的策 略组合"风险调整后收益"表现较为突出，策略核心优势体现在： 2026 年 01 月 27 日 证券分析师 芦哲 [Ta ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a harvest period with a stabilization in micro-inverter competition, leading to steady growth [1] - The company anticipates a significant recovery in its energy storage business in 2026, with projected revenues of over 10 billion yuan from large-scale storage systems and a gross margin of around 15% [8] - The company is undergoing a transformation phase, with high expenses expected in 2025, but a slight increase in costs is anticipated for 2026 as the framework for various teams has been established [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to decline slightly from 1,993 million yuan in 2024 to 1,959 million yuan in 2025, before increasing to 4,018 million yuan in 2026 and 5,345 million yuan in 2027 [1][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -149 million yuan in 2025, with a recovery to 313 million yuan in 2026 and 511 million yuan in 2027 [1][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -1.20 yuan in 2025, recovering to 2.52 yuan in 2026 and 4.12 yuan in 2027 [1][9] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 111.50 yuan, with a market capitalization of 13,834.20 million yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently 43.23, expected to drop to -99.98 in 2025 before stabilizing at 29.09 in 2027 [1][9] Business Segments - The company expects to generate over 3 billion yuan in revenue from large-scale storage systems and PCS in 2025, with a significant portion coming from overseas markets [8] - The micro-inverter segment is projected to see revenues of over 8 billion yuan in 2025, despite a 30% decline in prices due to increased competition [8]

证券研究报告·新股研究报告·原材料(HS) 鸣鸣很忙（01768.HK） 国内休闲食饮连锁零售领军企业，开启量贩 零食 3.0 时代 投资评级（暂无） 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李茵琦 | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 10,295.32 | 39,343.51 | 64,522.41 | 82,199.78 | 94,384.92 | | 同比（%） | 140.22 | 282.15 | 64.00 | 27.40 | 14.82 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 217.43 | 833.70 | 2,246.45 | 3,019.30 | 3,731.59 | | 同比（%） | 203.45 | 283.44 | 169.45 | 34.40 | 23.59 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.02 | 3.89 | 1 ...

鸣鸣很忙（01768.HK） 国内休闲食饮连锁零售领军企业，开启量贩 零食 3.0 时代 投资评级（暂无） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 10,295.32 | 39,343.51 | 64,522.41 | 82,199.78 | 94,384.92 | | 同比（%） | 140.22 | 282.15 | 64.00 | 27.40 | 14.82 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 217.43 | 833.70 | 2,246.45 | 3,019.30 | 3,731.59 | | 同比（%） | 203.45 | 283.44 | 169.45 | 34.40 | 23.59 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.02 | 3.89 | 10.49 | 14.10 | 17.43 | | P/E（发行价&最新摊 | 207.35 | 54.08 | 20.07 | 14.93 | 12.08 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 先导智能（300450） 2025 年业绩预告点评：业绩符合预期，主业 传统锂电持续增长&固态电池 0-1 受益 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 16,628 | 11,855 | 14,800 | 17,850 | 20,600 | | 同比（%） | 19.35 | (28.71) | 24.84 | 20.61 | 15.41 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,774.57 | 286.10 | 1,654.03 | 2,327.87 | 2,711.58 | | 同比（%） | (23.45) | (83.88) | 478.13 | 40.74 | 16.48 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.13 | 0.18 | 1.06 | 1.49 | 1.73 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 55.73 | 345.69 | 59.80 | ...