证券研究报告·公司点评报告·教育 行动教育（605098） 2025 三季报点评：收入增速转正，百校战略 加速成长 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 672.24 | 783.43 | 849.17 | 908.95 | 964.29 | | 同比（%） | 49.08 | 16.54 | 8.39 | 7.04 | 6.09 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 219.45 | 268.57 | 303.49 | 327.24 | 355.17 | | 同比（%） | 97.95 | 22.39 | 13.00 | 7.83 | 8.53 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.84 | 2.25 | 2.54 | 2.74 | 2.98 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 21.68 | 17.72 | 15.68 | 14.54 | 13.40 | [Table_Tag] [Table_S ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the insurance sector [1] Core Insights - The individual insurance channel in China has undergone significant transformation over the past 30 years, evolving from a "mass recruitment" strategy to a focus on value-driven growth [2][9] - The current phase emphasizes quality improvement over mere scale expansion, with a notable decline in the number of agents from 912 million in 2019 to 264 million by the end of 2024, a reduction of 71.1% [2][39] - The report highlights the importance of professional, technological, and service upgrades as key directions for the future of the individual insurance channel [2][39] Summary by Sections 1. Individual Insurance as a Pillar Channel - The individual insurance channel is defined as the direct sale of insurance products to consumers through personal agents, which can be categorized into exclusive and independent agents [7][8] - The development of the individual insurance channel began in 1992 with the introduction of the agent system by AIA, marking a shift from group insurance sales to individual marketing [11][14] 2. Development Stages of Individual Insurance Channel - The individual insurance channel has experienced four main stages: 1. Introduction and Initial Phase (1992-2002) 2. Intensified Competition with Bank Insurance (2003-2014) 3. Rapid Expansion Phase (2015-2019) 4. Quality Transformation Phase (2020-Present) [9][10] 3. Current Challenges and Future Directions - The individual insurance channel faces several challenges, including the need for professionalization and technological integration to enhance service quality [2][39] - The report suggests that the future of the individual insurance channel will not rely on a single sales channel but will embrace a multi-channel approach [2][39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Bosideng's main brand is experiencing high-quality growth, with expectations for strong sales during the peak season [7] - The company is focusing on brand building and differentiated channel operations, including the launch of new products at Paris Fashion Week and the opening of a new concept store in Shanghai [7] - Financial forecasts indicate steady revenue growth, with total revenue projected to reach 25.9 billion yuan in FY2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan) for FY2024A is projected at 23,214, increasing to 25,902 in FY2025A, 28,512 in FY2026E, 31,420 in FY2027E, and 34,626 in FY2028E, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.39%, 11.58%, 10.08%, 10.20%, and 10.20% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) is expected to grow from 3,074 in FY2024A to 3,514 in FY2025A, 3,938 in FY2026E, 4,393 in FY2027E, and 4,897 in FY2028E, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 43.74%, 14.31%, 12.06%, 11.57%, and 11.45% [1] - The report anticipates an EPS of 0.27 yuan for FY2024A, increasing to 0.30 yuan in FY2025A, 0.34 yuan in FY2026E, 0.38 yuan in FY2027E, and 0.42 yuan in FY2028E [1] Operational Insights - The main brand's revenue for FY2025 is projected at 21.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0%, accounting for 83.7% of total revenue [7] - The report notes a significant increase in wholesale and self-operated business revenues, with wholesale up by 24.3% and self-operated by 5.2% [7] - The company has added 253 retail outlets, bringing the total to 3,470 by the end of FY2025 [7] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for FY2025 is expected to be 57.3%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-margin wholesale and OEM business [7] - The net profit margin for FY2025 is projected to be 13.6%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Operating cash flow is expected to be 39.82 billion yuan, indicating a healthy financial position [7]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 利元亨（688499） 证券分析师 周尔双 执业证书：S0600515110002 021-60199784 zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李文意 执业证书：S0600524080005 liwenyi@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,994 | 2,482 | 3,139 | 4,004 | 4,943 | | 同比（%） | 18.81 | (50.30) | 26.47 | 27.55 | 23.46 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (188.02) | (1,044.13) | 80.35 | 161.03 | 217.47 | | 同比（%） | (164.94) | (455.34) | 107.70 | 100.42 | 35.05 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (1.11) ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 13.904 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.568 billion yuan, up 67.5% year-on-year [7] - In Q3, the company's revenue grew by 23.2% year-on-year and 3.6% quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased sales of yarn and electronic fabric products [7] - The gross margin for Q3 was 32.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6 percentage points [7] - The company is expected to benefit from improved industry conditions, with supply shocks subsiding and downstream demand remaining resilient, leading to a gradual recovery in profitability [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 14.876 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 18.432 billion yuan in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.25% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 2.445 billion yuan in 2024A to 3.509 billion yuan in 2025E, indicating a growth rate of 43.53% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.88 yuan in 2025E, with a P/E ratio of 18.08 [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, increasing the proportion of mid-to-high-end products, and developing new products to enhance profitability [7] - The industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in pricing and profitability due to reduced new capacity and improved supply-demand balance [7] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 3.509 billion yuan in 2025E, 4.301 billion yuan in 2026E, and 4.975 billion yuan in 2027E, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [7] - The overall industry outlook is positive, with expectations of price increases in electronic fabrics supported by improved downstream demand [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The demand for ultra-high voltage GIS remains robust, and the company's performance is generally in line with market expectations [2][8] - The company has a strong order backlog, with expectations for revenue growth in the high-voltage segment of 5-10% for the year [8] - The GIL business is expected to become a significant growth driver, benefiting from ongoing projects and international market opportunities [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 11,077 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.44% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 815.71 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 284.47% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is estimated at 0.60 yuan per share for 2023, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 28.56 [1] - For 2025, total revenue is expected to be 13,320 million yuan, with a net profit of 1,285.21 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 25.61% [1][9] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is projected to be 3,008 million yuan in 2024, with a significant improvement in cash flow management [9]

Macro Strategy - The GDP growth rate remains resilient, with an expectation to achieve the annual growth target of 5% [9] - In Q3, GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, while cumulative growth for the first three quarters was 5.2% [9] - Industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [9] - Exports outperformed expectations with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, while domestic consumption showed pressure with a growth of 3.0% [9] - The report suggests that the current economic environment may lead to potential monetary easing in Q4 [2] Fixed Income - The report discusses opportunities in the Sci-Tech bond ETF, emphasizing the inclusion criteria for bonds with an implied rating of AA+ or higher [3] - It highlights the preference for smaller-scale bonds (40 billion or below) and the focus on public company bonds and financial bonds [3] - The report indicates that bonds issued by central state-owned enterprises are more likely to be included in the ETF [3] Industry Analysis Dazhu CNC (301200) - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 66.53% year-on-year, reaching 39.03 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [17] - The net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 142.19% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for AI computing power [17] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with profit forecasts of 6.97 billion, 11.43 billion, and 17.30 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [17] CATL (300750) - The company revised its net profit forecast upwards to 690 billion, 862 billion, and 1066 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a growth of 36%, 25%, and 24% respectively [8] - The report maintains a "buy" rating with a target price of 567 yuan for 2026 [8] Yanjing Beer (000729) - The company is expected to benefit from the growth of its flagship product U8, with net profit forecasts of 16.02 billion, 19.11 billion, and 22.62 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [8] - The report maintains a "buy" rating based on the company's strong dividend policy and growth potential [8]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·休闲食品 万辰集团（300972） 2025 年 10 月 21 日 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李茵琦 执业证书：S0600524110002 liyinqi@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 2025 年三季报点评：净利率继续环比，后续 仍有催化 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 9,294 | 32,329 | 48,991 | 58,485 | 65,419 | | 同比（%） | 1,592.03 | 247.86 | 51.54 | 19.38 | 11.86 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (82.93) | 293.52 | 1,287.16 | 1,927.27 | 2,444.88 | | 同比（%） | (273.72) | 453.95 | 338.52 | 49.73 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved significant revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a revenue of 3.903 billion yuan, up 66.53% year-on-year, and a net profit of 492 million yuan, up 142.19% year-on-year, driven by AI computing demand [2] - The company's gross profit margin improved to approximately 31.7%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [3] - Inventory increased significantly to 1.583 billion yuan, a rise of 76.22% from the beginning of the year, reflecting strong order demand [4] - The company is positioned to benefit from the booming demand for AI PCB equipment, with a focus on high-end products and strategic partnerships with leading PCB manufacturers [5] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 697 million yuan, 1.143 billion yuan, and 1.730 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 58.66, 35.77, and 23.62 [5][11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [57]. Core Views - The report highlights that September sales, including production, wholesale, retail, and exports, exceeded expectations, with significant year-on-year growth [5][10]. - The total production in September reached 101,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 69.0% and a month-on-month increase of 15.3% [5]. - The wholesale volume for September was 106,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 82.9% and a month-on-month increase of 15.2% [5]. - The terminal sales for September were 83,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 91.5% and a month-on-month increase of 25.0% [5]. - Export sales in September amounted to 31,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 28.1% and a month-on-month increase of 15.2% [5]. - The overall inventory in September decreased by 13,000 units, with a total industry inventory coefficient of 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [5][18]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In September, the production, wholesale, retail, and export figures all surpassed expectations, with terminal sales showing a strong year-on-year growth of 91.5% [5][14]. - Cumulative terminal sales from January to September reached 569,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.9% [14]. Market Structure - The report indicates that logistics vehicles outperformed engineering vehicles in September, with logistics vehicle sales at 74,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 92.8% [23]. - The market share of major manufacturers in terminal sales for September was led by Jiefang, Dongfeng, and Heavy Truck, with respective shares of 21.8%, 19.4%, and 16.6% [36]. Engine Market - Weichai maintained the leading market share in the engine segment, with a share of 19.4% in September, showing a slight increase from the previous month [43]. - The report notes that Weichai's terminal配套量 reached 16,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 80.2% [47]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power, highlighting the potential for performance improvement in FAW Jiefang and Foton Motor due to favorable policies [52].