Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the waste incineration sector, particularly in overseas markets, with a projected investment scale of approximately 250 billion yuan for waste incineration in ASEAN countries and India [10][11] - The report highlights the significant increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 70.9% in 2025, indicating a strong trend towards electrification in the sanitation industry [20][30] - The report outlines a strategic focus for 2026, emphasizing value and growth resonance driven by dual carbon goals, with recommendations for companies that can leverage these trends [24][28] Industry Trends - **Waste Incineration Growth**: The report estimates a conservative increase of about 500,000 tons/day in waste incineration capacity in ASEAN and India, corresponding to an investment opportunity of around 250 billion yuan [10] - **Sanitation Equipment**: In 2025, the total amount for successful bids for unmanned sanitation equipment exceeded 12.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 150% [17] - **Electric Vehicle Penetration**: The penetration rate of new energy sanitation vehicles reached 21.11% in 2025, up 7.67 percentage points year-on-year [30] Company Recommendations - **Key Recommendations**: The report recommends companies such as Longjing Environmental, Gao Neng Environment, and Sains for their strong growth potential in the waste incineration and sanitation sectors [4] - **Focus on Overseas Growth**: Companies like Weiming Environmental and Sanfeng Environment are highlighted for their potential to exceed expectations in overseas markets [15] - **Dividend and ROE Enhancement**: Companies such as Huanlan Environment and Green Power are noted for their strategies to enhance dividends and return on equity [15][24] Market Performance - **Sanitation Vehicle Sales**: The total sales of sanitation vehicles in 2025 reached 76,346 units, with a year-on-year increase of 8.82% [20] - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: New energy sanitation vehicle sales reached 16,119 units, reflecting a significant increase of 70.9% year-on-year [20][30] - **Market Concentration**: The report notes that the market concentration for new energy sanitation vehicles is decreasing, with leading companies like Yingfeng Environment and Yutong Heavy Industry maintaining significant market shares [21][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential in waste incineration and the opportunities for companies to expand overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia and India, where there is a projected increase in waste incineration capacity [10][15] - The report highlights the significant increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles and the growth of unmanned sanitation projects, indicating a shift towards automation and electrification in the industry [17][20] - The 2026 strategy focuses on the dual drivers of value and growth, emphasizing the importance of marketization and efficiency improvements in the environmental sector [24][28] Industry Trends - Waste Incineration Growth: The report estimates a potential increase of approximately 500,000 tons/day in waste incineration capacity in ASEAN countries and India, corresponding to an investment scale of about 250 billion yuan [10] - Unmanned Sanitation Equipment: In 2025, the total amount of contracts for unmanned sanitation projects exceeded 12.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of over 150% [17] - New Energy Sanitation Vehicles: Sales of new energy sanitation vehicles increased by 70.9% in 2025, with a penetration rate of 21.11%, reflecting a growing trend towards electrification in the sanitation sector [20][30] Company Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Longjing Environmental, Gao Neng Environment, Sains, and others, focusing on their growth potential in both domestic and international markets [4][15] - The report suggests that companies like Weiming Environmental and Sanfeng Environment are expected to benefit significantly from overseas expansion and high-value projects [15][24] - The report also highlights the importance of dividend increases and return on equity (ROE) improvements for companies such as Huanlan Environment and Green Power [15][24] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the profitability of waste incineration projects in Indonesia is significantly higher than in China due to favorable pricing and operational conditions [12][15] - The report indicates that the market for lithium battery recycling is improving, with rising metal prices and better margins for recycling projects [38][39]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260126 转债建议同时关注高胜率顺周期标的 2026 年 01 月 26 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 2026-01-26 证券分析师 陈伯铭 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20260119-20260123）》 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 2026-01-25 相关研究 《周观：新的债市震荡区间形成（2026 年第 4 期）》 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 本周（0119－0123）海外方面黄金似乎正在经历一场"完美风 暴"，周涨幅达到 8.4%+，无论公共部门还是私人部门都在积极 配置黄金以应对全球新的地缘逻辑，公共部门"挤出效应"显著， 因此在央行（尤其新兴市场国家）购金潮回落趋势确认、联储货 币政策转向、财政强支出剧本（部分依赖于宽货币）逆转前，很 难给出金价迎来拐点的结论；迎来驻点的概率是否较大？我们 认为这主要取决于中期的"机会成本"，即会否出现其他资产的 风险调整后收益率 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company, Leshu Shi, is the leading multinational brand in Africa for baby diapers and sanitary napkins, with significant growth potential in emerging markets [6][12]. - The company has established a strong local production and sales network, allowing it to offer competitive pricing and respond quickly to market demands [6][12]. - The report estimates that Leshu Shi has the potential for over five times growth, driven by market expansion in Africa and initial steps into Latin America and Central Asia [6][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Leshu Shi was founded in 2009 and went public in November 2025, focusing on baby diapers, sanitary napkins, baby pull-ups, and wet wipes, with revenue shares of 75%, 17%, 5%, and 3% respectively in 2024 [12]. - The company holds a market share of 20.3% in baby diapers and 15.6% in sanitary napkins in Africa, leading the market [12]. - Revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected at $454.39 million and $95.11 million, respectively, with a CAGR of 19% for revenue and 127% for net profit from 2022 to 2024 [1][12]. Emerging Market Insights - The African market for sanitary products is growing rapidly due to high birth rates and low penetration rates, with a projected CAGR of 6.8% from 2020 to 2024 [6][40]. - The report highlights that the African market for baby diapers is expected to grow from $2 billion in 2020 to $2.6 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 6.2% [42][45]. - In contrast, the Latin American market is larger but growing at a slower pace, with a CAGR of 2.3% for baby diapers from 2020 to 2024 [55]. Competitive Positioning - Leshu Shi's competitive advantage stems from its localized production, which reduces costs and enhances market responsiveness [6][12]. - The company has developed a multi-brand strategy that differentiates its offerings from international competitors, providing a diverse range of products tailored to local needs [6][12]. - The report indicates that Leshu Shi's market share in the African sanitary napkin market is also strong, with a projected sales volume of 1,606 million pieces in 2024, representing a 15.6% market share [52][53]. Growth Potential - The report suggests that Leshu Shi could achieve a market scale of $2.72 billion in the long term, indicating significant growth potential [6][12]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and sales networks in Africa, with plans to replicate its success in Latin America and Central Asia [6][12]. - The financial forecasts predict a net profit of $113.42 million in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio decreasing from 40.84 in 2023 to 17.24 in 2027 [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company, Leshu Shi, is the leading multinational brand in Africa for baby diapers and sanitary napkins, with significant market shares of 20.3% and 15.6% respectively in 2024 [6][12]. - The company has established a strong local production and sales network, which enhances its competitive edge through cost efficiency and rapid market response [6][12]. - The report estimates that Leshu Shi has the potential for over five times growth, projecting a market scale of $2.72 billion in the long term [6][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Leshu Shi was founded in 2009 and went public in November 2025, focusing on baby diapers, sanitary napkins, baby pull-ups, and wet wipes, with revenue contributions of 75%, 17%, 5%, and 3% respectively in 2024 [6][12]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founders holding 53.55% of the shares [23]. Emerging Market Hygiene Products Industry - The African hygiene products market is characterized by high birth rates and low penetration rates, leading to a projected CAGR of 6.8% from 2020 to 2024 [40][39]. - The report highlights that the African market for baby diapers is expected to grow from $2 billion in 2020 to $2.6 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 6.2% [45]. Competitive Positioning - Leshu Shi has built a multi-brand product matrix that differentiates it from international competitors, allowing it to cater to diverse consumer needs [6][12]. - The company has a robust local production strategy, with eight production bases and 51 production lines across eight African countries, significantly reducing costs [19][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from $411.37 million in 2023 to $746.10 million by 2027, with a CAGR of 19% [1]. - Net profit is expected to increase from $64.68 million in 2023 to $153.23 million by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 127% [1][12].

Economic Indicators - As of January 25, 2026, the ECI supply index is at 50.06%, up 0.10 percentage points from the previous week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.84%[8] - The ECI investment index is at 49.83%, unchanged from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.65%, down 0.01 percentage points[8] - The ECI export index has increased to 50.22%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week[8] Industrial Production - The operating rate for automotive full steel tires has improved by 20.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the cement shipment rate has increased by 13.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year[2] - The overall industrial production shows significant improvement due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with various industries experiencing better operating rates compared to last year[17] Real Estate Market - The sales growth of second-hand homes continues to recover, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 10.9% for the week of January 17-23, 2026, marking the first positive year-on-year change since October 2025[2] Consumer Market - The retail sales of passenger cars are expected to rebound from a year-on-year decline of -14.0% in December 2025 to a growth of 0.3% in January 2026[2] - The "trade-in" policy has shown positive effects, with significant improvements in appliance sales during the week of January 12-18, 2026[2] Export Performance - The cumulative cargo throughput at monitored ports in January 2026 is recorded at an average of 25,967.4 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 3.5%[2] - January exports are expected to maintain strong resilience, supported by a higher number of working days compared to the previous year[2] Inflation Trends - The average wholesale price of pork has increased to 18.48 yuan/kg, showing a marginal recovery, while the average price of 28 key monitored vegetables is at 5.65 yuan/kg, also reflecting a slight increase[44] - The CPI is expected to continue rising due to the seasonal demand for food products and the increase in international oil prices[2] Monetary Policy - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) has been preemptively rolled over with an excess of 9,000 billion yuan, indicating a total liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan in January 2026[16] - The ELI index stands at -0.71%, having increased by 0.07 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[13] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[59] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market is still under observation[59]

Market Overview - The overseas market from January 19-25 was dominated by Trump's tariff threats regarding Greenland and Japan's fiscal issues, leading to significant gains in precious metals and commodities, while global stocks, bonds, and the dollar index performed poorly[1] - London spot silver surged by 14.5%, breaking the $100 mark to reach $103.2 per ounce, while gold prices increased by 8.5%, both hitting new highs[3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economic data remained robust, with the economic surprise index for Europe turning positive for the first time in nearly a year, indicating a recovery[1][10] - The U.S. economic surprise index fell slightly from 0.148 to 0.129, while the European index rose from -0.015 to 0.04, reflecting improved economic momentum in Europe[9][10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The market is fully pricing in no interest rate cuts for January, with the focus on Powell's assessment of the U.S. economy and future rate paths during the upcoming FOMC meeting on January 29[1][17] - Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials suggest caution regarding further rate cuts, with market expectations for a potential new chairperson rising significantly[19][23] Political Developments - Trump's renewed tariff threats against Canada could impose a 100% tariff on all goods if Canada continues trade agreements with China, adding to geopolitical tensions[20] - The Supreme Court's oral arguments in the Trump v. Cook case suggest a likely ruling against Trump's dismissal of the Fed board member, with a predicted 7-2 vote[25] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected outcomes from Trump's tariff cases, excessive rate cuts by the Fed leading to inflation spikes, and prolonged high rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week (2026.1.19 - 2026.1.23), the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 declined by 1.3bp from 1.843% last Friday to 1.83% this Friday. The bond market returned to a narrow - range oscillation. Considering the "stock - bond seesaw" and the configuration power at the beginning of the year, it is expected that the 10 - year Treasury yield will fluctuate within the range of 1.8% - 1.9% next week, and may approach the lower limit of the range, but lacks the power to break through [1][10][14]. - Overseas, gold has experienced a "perfect storm" this week with a weekly increase of over 8.4%. It is difficult to conclude that the gold price will reach an inflection point until the central bank's gold - buying wave subsides, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes, and the strong fiscal spending scenario reverses. The probability of reaching a stationary point depends on the "opportunity cost" in the medium - term [1][18]. - The US labor market is in a mild adjustment stage, with marginal pressure on employment. The inflation shows a mild cooling trend, and the Fed's short - term reason for cutting interest rates is further insufficient. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is 2.8%, and it may suspend interest rate cuts [1][18][20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1. One - Week Views 3.1.1. Domestic Bond Market - **Weekly Review**: From Monday to Friday, affected by economic data release, LPR announcement, central bank operations, and market sentiment, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 showed fluctuations, with a cumulative decline of 1.3bp [10][11]. - **Weekly Thinking**: The bond market oscillated narrowly. The "stock - bond seesaw" limited the decline of bond yields, while the configuration power at the beginning of the year drove the interest rate down. The 2025 economic data showed that GDP achieved the annual target, but the structural contradiction of "strong production, weak demand" still existed. The central bank's over - quantity renewal of MLF reduced the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut before the Spring Festival. It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury yield will fluctuate within 1.8% - 1.9% next week [14][15]. 3.1.2. Overseas Market - **Gold Market**: Gold had a significant weekly increase. It is difficult to determine the inflection point of the gold price until certain conditions change. The probability of reaching a stationary point depends on the "opportunity cost" [18]. - **US Economic Data and Fed Policy**: The US labor market showed marginal pressure, inflation cooled mildly, and the Fed's short - term reason for cutting interest rates was insufficient. The probability of a rate cut in January was 2.8%, and the first rate cut was expected to be postponed to mid - 2026 [18][20]. 3.2. Domestic and Overseas Data Summaries 3.2.1. Liquidity Tracking - **Open Market Operations**: From January 19 to 23, 2026, the total net investment in the open market was 11,295 billion yuan, including reverse repurchase and MLF operations [30]. - **Interest Rate Comparison**: Comparisons of money market interest rates, interest rate corridors, and yields of various bonds were presented, showing the changes in interest rates [35][37][41]. 3.2.2. Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Commodity Prices**: Steel prices declined, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices generally increased. Prices of coal, vegetables, and crude oil also showed different trends [51]. 3.3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.3.1. Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: A total of 26 local government bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with an issuance amount of 231.57 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 28.41 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 203.16 billion yuan. The bonds were mainly issued by 5 provinces and cities, and 3 provinces issued special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts [64][68][71]. - **Early Redemption**: The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 740 million yuan, involving 3 provinces [72]. 3.3.2. Secondary Market Overview - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: The stock of local government bonds was 55.02 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 36.6054 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.67%. The top three provinces with active trading were Zhejiang, Liaoning, and Guangdong, and the top three active terms were 10Y, 30Y, and 20Y [81]. - **Yield Changes**: The yields of local government bonds generally increased this week [83]. 3.3.3. Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for This Month The local government bond issuance plan was presented, but specific content was not detailed in the summary [88]. 3.4. One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1. Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Total Issuance**: A total of 374 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 331.369 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 187.874 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 143.494 billion yuan, an increase of 103.506 billion yuan compared with last week [87]. - **Sub - type Issuance**: Urban investment bonds had a net financing deficit of 2.052 billion yuan, while industrial bonds had a net financing of 16.4014 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bonds had a net financing of 4.2019 billion yuan, medium - term notes had a net financing of 6.3494 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had a net financing deficit of 310 million yuan, corporate bonds had a net financing of 4.9499 billion yuan, and private placement notes had a net financing deficit of 841.8 million yuan [90][94]. 3.4.2. Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types and their changes were presented [102]. 3.4.3. Secondary Market Transaction Overview The trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market was 650.547 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different ratings and bond types [103]. 3.4.4. Yield to Maturity - **Government - backed Bonds**: The yields of state - owned development bonds generally declined this week [104]. - **Credit Bonds**: The yields of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes declined across the board, the yields of enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, and the yields of urban investment bonds declined across the board [104][105][106]. 3.4.5. Credit Spreads - **Short - term Financing Bonds and Medium - term Notes**: The credit spreads generally showed a downward trend [107]. - **Enterprise Bonds**: The credit spreads showed a differentiated trend [108]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The credit spreads showed a differentiated trend [110]. 3.4.6. Grade Spreads - **Short - term Financing Bonds and Medium - term Notes**: The grade spreads showed a differentiated trend [113]. - **Enterprise Bonds**: The grade spreads generally widened [115]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The grade spreads showed a differentiated trend [118]. 3.4.7. Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds of each type were listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [125][126]. 3.4.8. Changes in Subject Ratings The subject rating of Qingdao Haifa State - owned Capital Investment and Operation Group Co., Ltd. was raised to A+ with a stable outlook [130].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the acquisition of DFS's Greater China operations by the company, which aims to deepen strategic cooperation with LVMH [8] - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's position in the Hong Kong and Macau duty-free market, integrating DFS's resources to expand international channels [8] - The company anticipates a recovery in sales due to favorable policies and the opening of new duty-free stores, projecting a significant increase in net profit in the coming years [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 67.54 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 24.08%, followed by a decline in 2024 to 56.47 billion yuan, and a gradual recovery thereafter [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 6.71 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 33.46%, declining to 4.27 billion yuan in 2024, and then recovering to 5.81 billion yuan by 2027 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 3.25 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 2.06 yuan in 2024, and gradually increasing to 2.81 yuan by 2027 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 93.32 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 193.07 billion yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 28.76 for the current price and latest diluted earnings [1] Strategic Developments - The company is set to strengthen its presence in the Hong Kong and Macau markets through the acquisition of DFS, which has a significant brand presence and strategic locations [8] - The partnership with LVMH is expected to facilitate further collaboration across various channels, enhancing the company's competitive edge [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [1]. Core Views - The real estate chain is expected to see a valuation recovery in 2026, with a potential rebound driven by policy expectations and market dynamics. Key stocks to watch include high-dividend companies and those in the export sector [2]. - The technology sector is highlighted as a priority, with domestic semiconductor development expected to accelerate, benefiting cleanroom engineering and related companies [2]. - Consumer performance remains subdued, but cost-cutting measures are showing positive effects, indicating that the clearing phase in the real estate chain is nearing completion [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of global trade stability and the potential for fiscal expansion in major economies, which could positively impact sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - Cement prices remain stable at 347.7 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week but down 52.2 CNY/ton year-on-year. The average cement inventory ratio is 59.4%, up 0.5 percentage points week-on-week [6][15]. - The average daily cement shipment rate is 29.5%, down 10.4 percentage points from the previous week but up 16.1 percentage points year-on-year [23][25]. - Glass prices are slightly up at 1138.8 CNY/ton, but down 257.2 CNY/ton compared to the same period last year. Inventory levels are at 4,977 million weight boxes, down 9,000 from last week but up 1,188,000 from last year [49][46]. 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that the cement industry is undergoing supply-side adjustments, with a focus on eliminating outdated capacity. This is expected to improve the utilization rate of clinker capacity [10]. - The glass industry is facing a supply contraction, which may provide price elasticity in 2026. However, the current demand is weak, and inventory levels remain high [10]. - The fiberglass sector is projected to see stable growth in demand, particularly in wind power and new applications, despite a general decline in profitability [10]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector saw a weekly increase of 9.23%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which decreased by 0.62% [6]. - The report suggests that the valuation of leading companies in the sector is at historical lows, indicating potential for recovery as industry policies take effect [10].