证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20250526 "卖出美国"续集：股债汇又"三杀"——全 球市场观察系列 一是，长债拍卖不佳，债市联动股市下跌。一方面，美国 20 年期国债 拍卖需求不佳，导致市场情绪快速回调；另一方面，发达经济体普遍面 临财政赤字扩张压力，全球债券市场联动抛售加剧美债波动。日本 30 年 期国债收益率本周升至 2.1%(2023 年以来新高)，英国 30 年期国债收益 率突破 4.8%。 二是，"Fed Put"进一步撤回。一方面，美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂 克表达了关税对通胀上行的担忧，并重申他预计今年降息 1 次（市场预 期 2 次）。另一方面，在美债需求疲软之际，美联储理事沃勒表示美联 储不会在一级拍卖中购买债券，重申了美联储避免直接参与政府债券发 行的政策立场。 三是，地缘风险再起。以色列准备打击伊朗核设施，地缘政治风险再起， 市场避险情绪显著升温，美股在此影响下走弱。 短期内，我们认为美股继续以震荡为主。一是，长端美债利率重回 4.5% 附近，不仅加剧特朗普后续减税政策的掣肘，且对美股进一步拔估值形 成压制。二是，地缘政治风险依旧不容忽视，警惕短期内地缘可能带来 的外 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 库存大幅增长美国气价回落，需求偏弱国内 气价回落，库存偏低欧洲气价微增 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：经济增速不及预期、极端天气、国际局势变化、安全经营风险。 2025 年 05 月 26 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -13% -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 2024/5/27 2024/9/24 2025/1/22 2025/5/22 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《需求偏弱美国&国内气价回落，库 存同比偏低欧洲气价微增；对美 LNG 关税降至 25%》 2025-05-19 《产量或下降美国气价提升，库存同 比偏低欧洲气价提升》 2025-05-12 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：库存大幅增长美国气价回落 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [1] Core Views - The company is driven by dual engines of catering and food, focusing on South China while expanding nationwide [7] - The company has optimized its product matrix to align with market demand, launching new products such as mooncakes and frozen foods, and targeting health-conscious consumers [7] - The company has established a strong offline presence with over 1,013 distributors and is expanding its e-commerce partnerships [7] - The company is increasing its market share outside Guangdong, with nearly 20% of mooncake sales coming from outside the province in 2024 [7] - The company is also expanding internationally, with a 41.63% revenue growth from overseas markets in 2024 [7] - The company expects a net profit growth of 9.44% in 2025, reaching 540.50 million yuan, and a continued upward trend in subsequent years [1][7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5,124 million yuan in 2024 to 6,670 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.10% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 494 million yuan in 2024 to 678 million yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.87 yuan in 2024 to 1.19 yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 19.20 in 2024 to 13.98 in 2027, indicating potential undervaluation [1][8]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ 2025 年 05 月 26 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 库存大幅增长美国气价回落，需求偏弱国内 气价回落，库存偏低欧洲气价微增 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：经济增速不及预期、极端天气、国际局势变化、安全经营风险。 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 相关研究 《需求偏弱美国&国内气价回落，库 存同比偏低欧洲气价微增；对美 LNG 关税降至 25%》 2025-05-19 《产量或下降美国气价提升，库存同 比偏低欧洲气价提升》 2025-05-12 行业走势 -13% -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 2024/5/27 2024/9/24 2025/1/22 2025/5/22 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：库存大幅增长美国气价回落 ...

证券研究报告·行业研究·汽车与零部件 客车5月月报： 4月行业整体偏淡，出口同比稳步提升 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2025年5月26日 推荐客车板块，优选【宇通+金龙】 2 ◼ 客车这轮大周期驱动因素是什么？一句话总结：客车代表中国汽车制造业将成为【技术 输出】的世界龙头。这不是梦想而是会真真切切反应到报表层面。海外市场业绩贡献对 客车行业在3-5年会至少再造一个中国市场。背后支撑因素： （ ➢ 1）天时：符合国家【中特估】大方向，客车是【一带一路】的有力践行者，已有10余 年的出海经验，在新的国际形势变化下，将进一步跟紧国家战略，让中国优势制造业 【走出去】。 ➢ 2）地利：客车的技术与产品已经具备世界一流水平。新能源客车产品维度，中国客车 已领先海外竞争对手。传统客车维度，技术已不亚于海外且具备更好性价比及服务。 ➢ 3）人和：国内市场价格战结束不会成为拖累反而会共振。过去6-7年国内客车"高铁冲 击+新能源公交透支+三年疫情"三重因素叠加经历了长期的价格战，2022下半年宇通已 ...

人形机器人量产在即，锂电需求略有好转 2025 年 05 月 26 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·电力设备 电力设备行业跟踪周报 证券分析师 曾朵红 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阮巧燕 执业证书：S0600517120002 021-60199793 ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 许钧赫 执业证书：S0600123070121 xujunhe@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 2024/5/27 2024/9/24 2025/1/22 2025/5/22 电力设备 沪深300 相关研究 《电力设备行业跟踪周报：人形机器 人如火如荼，关税下降或带动美国储 能抢装》 2025-05-18 《电力设备行业跟踪周报：人形量产 稳步推进，欧洲电车销量恢复》 2025-05-11 东吴证券研究所 1 / 41 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (06862.HK) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on steady progress and active advancement, with expectations for revenue growth and profit improvement through various strategic initiatives [8] - The "Red Pomegranate" plan has shown positive results, with the company successfully incubating new brands and expanding its store network [8] - The company is enhancing its operational model through a bottom-up site selection mechanism and strict control over franchisee standards [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 41,622 million RMB in 2023 to 47,244 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.62% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4,499 million RMB in 2023 to 5,269 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 4.77% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.81 RMB in 2023 to 0.95 RMB in 2027 [1] Operational Strategies - The company is implementing a dual management model and exclusive customer manager system to optimize its management practices [8] - A strict selection mechanism for franchisees is in place, ensuring quality and operational capability [8] - Digital upgrades and supply chain optimization are being pursued through the use of big data and AI technologies [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (06862.HK) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on steady progress and active advancement, with expectations for revenue and profit growth driven by operational optimizations and new brand incubations [8] - The "Red Pomegranate" plan has shown positive results, with 11 new restaurant brands and 74 new stores established by the end of 2024, indicating a potential second growth curve for the company [8] - The company is implementing a strict selection mechanism for franchisees to ensure quality and service standards, with 13 franchise stores already operational by the end of 2024 [8] - Digital upgrades and supply chain optimizations are being pursued through AI technology and data analysis, enhancing customer satisfaction and operational efficiency [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 41,622 million RMB in 2023 to 47,244 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.62% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4,499 million RMB in 2023 to 5,269 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 4.77% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.81 RMB in 2023 to 0.95 RMB in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 17.21 to 14.70 over the same period [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) [1] Core Views - The company continues to focus on the "people, vehicles, and home" ecosystem, launching new products such as the YU7 SUV and the Xuanjie chips, which are expected to drive growth [7] - The YU7 SUV is positioned as a high-performance luxury vehicle with impressive specifications, including a maximum horsepower of 690 PS and a range of 835 km, which is the highest for mid-to-large electric SUVs [7] - The self-developed Xuanjie O1 chip marks Xiaomi as the fourth company globally to design a 3nm process mobile SoC, enhancing its product capabilities [7] - The company has seen a 15.7% year-on-year increase in total smartphone shipments, with a growing market share in both global and domestic markets [7] - The report forecasts significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach 691.16 billion yuan by 2027, and net profit projected to reach 59.31 billion yuan in the same year [1][8] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for Xiaomi Group-W are as follows: - 2023: 270.97 billion yuan - 2024: 365.91 billion yuan - 2025: 483.50 billion yuan - 2026: 608.29 billion yuan - 2027: 691.16 billion yuan - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 17.48 billion yuan - 2024: 23.66 billion yuan - 2025: 34.31 billion yuan - 2026: 46.73 billion yuan - 2027: 59.31 billion yuan [1][8] - The report indicates a steady increase in earnings per share (EPS), projected to reach 2.29 yuan by 2027 [1][8] Market Position - Xiaomi's market share in the high-end smartphone segment has increased, with a 3% year-on-year rise to 23.3% in 2024 [7] - The company plans to expand its retail presence internationally, aiming to open approximately 10,000 new Xiaomi stores overseas in the next five years [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electric equipment industry [1] Core Views - The humanoid robot production is set to ramp up, with significant market potential projected at over 100 million units, corresponding to a market space exceeding 15 trillion yuan. The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for mass production [7][8] - The electric vehicle sector shows strong growth, with April sales of new energy vehicles reaching 1.23 million units, a year-on-year increase of 44%. The overall market is expected to grow by 25% in 2025, driven by consumption stimulus policies [27][29] - The energy storage market is experiencing a surge, particularly in the U.S. and Germany, with significant increases in installed capacity expected in 2025. The U.S. is projected to add 19-20 GW of new installations this year, doubling the previous year's figures [9][14] Industry Trends Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot market is in its early stages, with a projected long-term market space of over 100 million units. The current phase is likened to the early days of the electric vehicle market, indicating substantial growth potential [7][8] - Key catalysts for growth include updates from major players like Tesla and advancements from domestic tech companies in humanoid robotics [7] Energy Storage - The U.S. energy storage market saw a 984 MW increase in March, with a year-on-year growth of 85%. The average storage duration is approximately 3.4 hours, indicating a robust demand for energy storage solutions [9][14] - Germany's energy storage market is also expanding, with expectations of doubling capacity by 2025 due to regulatory pressures for renewable energy integration [14] Electric Vehicles - April saw a total of 1.23 million new energy vehicles sold in China, with significant contributions from leading manufacturers like BYD and Xpeng. The market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by favorable policies [27][29] Company Summaries - CATL (宁德时代) is highlighted as a global leader in power and energy storage batteries, with a low valuation and strong growth prospects [6] - BYD is noted for its continuous improvement in electric vehicle sales and structural upgrades, maintaining a strong market position [6] - Other companies such as Sunshine Power (阳光电源) and Keda Li (科达利) are also recommended for their robust growth and market leadership in their respective segments [6]