- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

税收收入同比转负，投资于人重要性凸显 固定收益研究团队 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：财政部公布 2025 年 12 月财政数据，1-12 月全国一般公共预算收入同比下 降 1.7%（前值为+0.8%，下同），支出同比增长 1.0%（+1.4%）；1-12 月全国政府 性基金预算收入同比下降 7.0%（-4.9%），支出同比增长 11.3%（+13.7%）。 2026 年 02 月 02 日 ——2025 年 12 月财政数据点评 12 月财政数据的关注点 税收收入同比转负，非税收入降幅扩大。12 月税收收入同比下降 11.5%（+2.8%）， 同比转负，结束连续 8 个月的正增长，12 月企业所得税回落或为当月税收收入 增幅放缓的主要原因。12 月证券交易印花税同比下降 4.8%，增幅在 12 月权益市 场震荡调整与 2024 年同期基数回升影响下转负。非税收入降幅的扩大或因 2024 年一次性安排中央单位上缴专项收益抬高基数。 在投资于 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific stocks [36]. Core Insights - In February, the top recommended stocks included Zijin Mining, Zhongji Xuchuang, Haiguang Information, Wanhua Chemical, Guizhou Moutai, Foster, and Shandong Gold, with a total of 291 unique stocks recommended by 38 brokerage firms [2][13]. - The sectors with the highest representation in recommended stocks were Electronics (13.0%), Non-ferrous Metals (8.5%), Basic Chemicals (8.0%), and Machinery Equipment (8.0%) [3][17]. - The market capitalization and valuation levels of recommended stocks decreased in February, indicating a potential shift towards value investing [3][18]. Summary by Sections February Stock Characteristics - The report highlights that the most frequently recommended stocks in February were Zijin Mining (7 times), Zhongji Xuchuang (7 times), Haiguang Information (7 times), Wanhua Chemical (7 times), and China Ping An (6 times) among repeat recommendations. New recommendations included Guizhou Moutai (6 times), Foster (4 times), and Shandong Gold (3 times) [2][14]. - The report categorizes stocks into new and repeat recommendations, with a total of 291 stocks identified [13]. January Stock Performance Review - The overall return of the stock portfolio in January was 7.2%, with a historical annualized return of 14.7%, outperforming the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices. New recommendations performed better than repeat ones, with returns of 8.0% for new stocks compared to 6.4% for repeat stocks [4][21]. - Top-performing stocks in January included Zhuoyi Information (96.5%), Maiwei Shares (59.0%), and Hongjing Technology (55.4%) [4][22]. Preferred Stock Portfolio - The preferred stock portfolio achieved a return of 11.1% in January, with a historical annualized return of 24.2%, outperforming the overall stock portfolio [5][26]. - The February preferred stock portfolio included stocks such as Caibai Co., Runze Technology, and Cangge Mining, with a focus on sectors like power equipment, electronics, and machinery [5][27].

- The report discusses the performance of broker-recommended stocks for February, highlighting that Zijin Mining, Zhongji Xuchuang, Haiguang Information, Wanhua Chemical, Guizhou Moutai, Foster, and Shandong Gold were the most frequently recommended stocks[13][14] - The report notes that the sectors with the highest weight in February's broker-recommended stocks were electronics, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and machinery equipment[3][14] - The report provides a performance review of January's broker-recommended stocks, showing an overall return of 7.2% for the entire stock portfolio, with new stocks outperforming repeated stocks[4][18][21] - The report introduces the "Kaiyuan Jin Gong Preferred Stock Portfolio," which achieved an 11.1% return in January and has an annualized return of 24.2% over the entire historical period[5][24][26] - The report highlights that the preferred stock portfolio's performance is superior to the overall stock portfolio and benchmark indices such as the CSI 300 and CSI 500[5][25][26]

Index Adjustment - The North Exchange 50 Index will undergo its first adjustment of 2026 on March 16, with three companies expected to be added: Tiangong Co., Ltd., Guangxin Technology, and Jikang Technology[2][14] - The adjustment will remove companies that rank low based on average daily market capitalization, with no substantial impact on the operations of the companies being removed[2][18] Index Fund Growth - The scale of North Exchange 50 index funds has seen significant growth from 2.94 billion CNY in 2022 to 14.165 billion CNY by January 31, 2026[2][18] - The number of products tracking the North Exchange 50 index increased from 16 in 2022 to 79 by the end of January 2026[2][18] Market Performance - The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1,531.55 points, down 3.59% from the previous week, with a price-to-earnings ratio (PETTM) of 64.12X[2][32] - The overall PE ratio for North Exchange A-shares decreased to 47.58X, while the ChiNext and STAR Market also saw declines in their PE ratios[2][23][32] Liquidity and Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume for North Exchange A-shares was 29.948 billion CNY, reflecting an increase of 11.62% week-over-week[2][26] - The average turnover rate for North Exchange A-shares was 5.88%, up by 0.44 percentage points[2][26] Valuation Trends - As of January 31, 2026, 44.86% of North Exchange companies had a PETTM exceeding 45X, indicating a high valuation environment[2][37] - The valuation gap between North Exchange and other markets is widening, suggesting a relative valuation advantage for North Exchange stocks[2][47]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid development of AI applications in social media, gaming, and marketing, with significant growth potential in user engagement and monetization opportunities [3][4] - The emergence of AI social platforms like Moltbook and Tencent's Yuanbao indicates a shift towards more interactive AI-driven social experiences, which could lead to increased user traffic and revenue generation through various channels [3] - The gaming sector is expected to benefit from advancements in AI tools, such as Genie3 and Taptap Maker, which lower the barriers for game development and enhance content diversity [4] Industry Data Overview - The report notes that "Fashion Department City" ranked first in the iOS free game chart in mainland China, while "Honor of Kings" topped the iOS revenue chart [10] - The film "Zootopia 2" achieved the highest box office revenue for the week, with a total of 4.453 billion yuan [20] - The gaming sector saw a high volume of game approvals in January, with "Supernatural Action Group" achieving over 10 million daily active users [23] Industry News Summary - Major AI models are entering a phase of intensive updates, with significant advancements in AI social, gaming, and film sectors [23] - Alibaba's Qwen3-Max-Thinking model has been released, boasting over a trillion parameters and achieving performance comparable to leading international models [24] - OpenAI launched Prism, a workspace designed for researchers, integrating various tools for collaborative scientific writing [25] - Kimi's K2.5 model supports visual understanding and code capabilities, enhancing user interaction with AI [26]

Report Overview - The report is a commentary on the January 2026 PMI data by the fixed - income research team [2] - The analysts are Chen Xi and the contact person is Wang Shuaizhong [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The economic repair falling short of expectations is refuted, and the economy is expected to pick up in the cycle. The target range for the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5% [7][8] Summary by Related Content PMI Data Overview - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3% (previous value 50.1%), down 0.8 pct month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4% (50.2%), down 0.8 pct month - on - month; the composite PMI was 49.8% (50.7%), down 0.9 pct month - on - month [4] Reasons for the Decline in January PMI - The manufacturing PMI decline was due to some industries entering the off - season and overall market demand being insufficient. The Spring Festival holiday and supply - demand contradictions might have caused the unexpected decline. Also, a possible correction after the unexpected growth in December should be considered [5] - In the short term, the lack of domestic market demand may continue, as both the manufacturing and non - manufacturing new order indices are in the contraction range [5] Positive Signals in Prices - The main raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index increased by 3.0 pct and 1.7 pct respectively month - on - month. The ex - factory price index rose to the expansion range for the first time in nearly 20 months, indicating an improvement in the overall price level of the manufacturing market [6] Construction Industry Outlook - The construction industry business activity expectation index dropped to 49.8%, below the critical level. This shows that construction enterprises are cautious about the industry's development, and the Spring Festival holiday has weakened business activities. Attention should be paid to data such as the direction of real estate listing and transaction volumes [6] Structural Highlights in the Data - The view that the economic repair falls short of expectations is often refuted by policy support in history. After repeated refutations, the market will gradually become optimistic [7] Bond Market Views - Fundamental aspect: The refutation of the view that the economic repair falls short of expectations, combined with possible broad credit and broad fiscal policies at the beginning of 2026, will accelerate the cycle recovery [8] - Broad - money aspect: If there are broad - money policies (such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, bond purchases), it will be a chance to reduce holdings, similar to 2025 [8] - Inflation aspect: Pay attention to whether the PPI month - on - month can remain positive [8] - Capital interest rate aspect: If inflation rises month - on - month continuously, there is a possibility of capital tightening, and the yield of short - term bonds will rise [8] - Real estate aspect: Real estate is not used as a means to stabilize growth this time. Similar to the situation in the US after 2008, real estate is a lagging indicator and may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [8] - Bond aspect: The target range for the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a stable pricing environment for third-generation refrigerants, with potential for a new round of price increases. Companies like Juhua Co., Ltd. and Haohua Technology have announced profit increases for 2025 [4][19] - The industry is entering a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across the entire fluorochemical value chain, from raw materials like fluorite to high-end fluorinated materials and fine chemicals [25] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Market Overview - Fluorite prices have stabilized and are expected to gradually recover, with the average market price for 97% wet fluorite at 3,314 CNY/ton as of January 30, 2026, reflecting a 0.15% increase from the previous week [19][20] - The fluorochemical index decreased by 4.98% during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.54% [6][38] 2. Refrigerant Pricing Trends - As of January 30, 2026, the prices for various refrigerants are as follows: R32 at 63,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 50,000 CNY/ton, R134a at 58,000 CNY/ton, and R410a at 55,500 CNY/ton, all remaining stable compared to the previous week [21][22] - The market for refrigerants is entering a demand off-season, but there is potential for price increases as domestic demand is expected to rise with the upcoming peak season [23][24] 3. Company Performance and Announcements - Juhua Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 3.54 to 3.94 billion CNY for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 80% to 101%. Haohua Technology anticipates a net profit of 1.38 to 1.48 billion CNY, a growth of 30.96% to 40.44% [10] - Other companies such as Luxi Chemical and ST Lianchuang also forecast significant profit increases for 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [10] 4. Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Ltd., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhou Bang [11][25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a significant shift with the introduction of Tesla's Robotaxi strategy, focusing on a dual-seat Cybercab to address 90% of travel scenarios [5][13] - Tesla has disclosed that approximately 1.1 million Full Self-Driving (FSD) paid users account for about 12% of its total vehicle sales, with a year-on-year growth of 38% [14] - The Shanghai government has introduced a subsidy for replacing old vehicles with new energy vehicles, offering an 8% subsidy on the purchase price, capped at 15,000 yuan [14] - The National Energy Administration plans to establish 28 million charging facilities by the end of 2027, expected to drive over 200 billion yuan in investments [15] - The global humanoid robot shipment is projected to increase by 508% in 2025, with Chinese manufacturers leading the market [20][22] Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed the market, with the A-share automotive index declining by 4.67%, ranking 29th among primary industries [6][25] - The passenger vehicle index fell by 1.84%, while the commercial vehicle index decreased by 1.21% [6] - The automotive parts index saw a decline of 6.82%, with various segments experiencing different levels of performance [6] Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, there is an unexpected demand in the domestic high-end luxury market, with recommendations for Jianghuai Automobile and Seres, while Geely Automobile is identified as a beneficiary [7] - In the automotive parts sector, profitability is expected to improve, with recommendations for Desay SV, Zhejiang Xiantong, Meili Technology, and others, while Weichai Power and others are seen as beneficiaries [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in the duty-free sales sector in Hainan, with January sales reaching 4.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32% [5][15] - The company "Guoquan" is expected to achieve a revenue of 7.75-7.85 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.8%-21.3%, with net profit projected to be 443-463 million yuan, a significant increase of 83.7%-92% [21][24] - The AI application sector is experiencing notable growth, with "Meitu Design Studio" and "Kuaishou Keling" seeing substantial increases in user engagement and revenue [26][31] Summary by Sections Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free sales in Hainan are showing strong growth, with cumulative shopping amounts reaching 10.05 billion yuan since the new policy implementation, a year-on-year increase of 25.32% [15][17] - The average daily passenger flow at Haikou Meilan and Sanya Phoenix airports has increased, indicating a robust tourism market [18][19] Guoquan - Guoquan's revenue for 2025 is projected to be between 7.75-7.85 billion yuan, with a net profit of 443-463 million yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [21][24] - The company plans to expand its store network significantly, adding 1,416 new stores to reach a total of 11,566, focusing on lower-tier markets [22][27] AI Applications - "Meitu Design Studio" has seen a significant increase in domestic traffic, with a month-on-month growth of 29.76% in November and 23.53% in December 2025 [30][31] - "Kuaishou Keling" has launched a new model, achieving a 350% increase in paid users and generating over 20 million USD in revenue in December 2025 [31][33] Beauty and Health Brands - "Qingmu Technology" is expected to see a profit increase of 30%-50% in 2025, with its private care brand "Keman Duo" showing strong sales growth [34][35] - "Zuccari" is also projected to grow significantly, with a revenue increase of over 95% in the first half of 2025 [36] Instant Retail - The instant retail market in China is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026, with Alibaba's "Taobao Flash Purchase" showing rapid growth in order volume and revenue [57][59] - The report indicates that the demand for instant delivery services is increasing, benefiting companies like "SF Same City" [61][62]