Revenue Performance - In June, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 18,943 billion, a year-on-year decline of 0.3%[2] - Tax revenue showed marginal improvement, growing by 1% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue decreased by 3.7%[2] - Corporate income tax and consumption tax saw marginal increases, with corporate income tax benefiting from a low base effect[2] Expenditure Trends - Public fiscal expenditure in June was CNY 28,318 billion, growing by only 0.4% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in the previous month[3] - Cumulative expenditure growth for the first half of the year was 3.4%, below the annual target of 4%[3] - Expenditure on science and technology increased by 18%, while infrastructure spending continued to decline, with transportation spending down by 13%[3] Government Fund Dynamics - Government fund revenue in June was CNY 3,959 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, marking a significant recovery[4] - Land sales revenue rose by 22% year-on-year, contributing to the improved government fund revenue[4] - Government fund expenditure surged by 79% year-on-year in June, driven by accelerated issuance of special bonds[5] Fiscal Deficit Insights - The broad fiscal deficit has widened, but the gap between actual revenue and budgeted revenue has narrowed effectively[6] - The potential fiscal gap for the year is estimated to be no more than CNY 3,000 billion if current revenue growth is maintained[6] - There is a risk of further widening fiscal gaps if revenue growth does not sustain the levels seen in the first half of the year[7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a moderate recovery in the beauty and cosmetics sector, with a notable performance in hair care and color cosmetics, indicating a stable growth trajectory [7][35] - The medical aesthetics sector is expected to gain momentum from the introduction of innovative products, particularly in the field of collagen and hair loss treatments [30][46] Summary by Sections Market Review - In June, the beauty and personal care index fell by 3.61%, ranking 31st among all primary industries, underperforming the market [14] - The medical aesthetics sector saw significant stock price increases for companies like Meili Tianyuan Medical Health (+64.4%), Yonghe Medical (+50.0%), and Sihuan Pharmaceutical (+13.3%) [20][26] - For the first half of 2025, the medical aesthetics sector recorded substantial gains, with Jinbo Biological (+124.6%), Yonghe Medical (+83.3%), and Meili Tianyuan Medical Health (+69.9%) leading the way [20][26] Medical Aesthetics - Jinbo Biological launched the world's first recombinant type III humanized collagen gel, HiveCOL, which is expected to revolutionize tissue regeneration [30] - Sihuan Pharmaceutical introduced new products targeting skin quality improvement and contour shaping, while Kedi's external finasteride spray received approval, marking a significant advancement in hair loss treatment [31][32] Cosmetics - The retail sales of cosmetics in the first half of 2025 reached 229.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [35] - Online sales of cosmetics amounted to 267.83 billion yuan, growing by 11.1%, while offline sales decreased by 4.1% to 228.44 billion yuan [36] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of domestic brands in the online market, particularly on platforms like Douyin and Tmall [40][43] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading domestic beauty brands that are expected to gain market share, particularly in high-growth segments [46][47] - Key recommendations include companies like Shangmei Co., Ltd., Maogeping, and Pulaia, which are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in the beauty market [50]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (看好) for the defense and military industry, marking the first rating of its kind [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the ongoing geopolitical complexities, such as the recent conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, are likely to sustain military trade benefits, leading to an increase in the valuation of the military industry [3]. - China's share in the international arms trade market is expected to continue rising, with a reported market share of 5.8% from 2019 to 2023, as the demand for advanced weaponry remains high [4]. - Sub-sectors such as unmanned equipment and rocket artillery are anticipated to benefit significantly from international conflicts and military trade orders, with specific companies identified as potential beneficiaries [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The defense and military industry is experiencing a favorable outlook due to escalating geopolitical tensions and increased military spending [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The international transfer of major weapons has increased by 3.2% from 2019 to 2023 compared to the previous five-year period, indicating a robust demand for military equipment [4]. Investment Opportunities - Key beneficiaries in the unmanned equipment sector include companies like Jingpin Special Equipment and Aerospace Rainbow, while ammunition-related companies such as Gaode Infrared and Guangdong Hongda are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" market phase, driven by high-level policies and clean industry chips, which are expected to support a rebound in certain sectors [8][10][11] - The chemical industry, particularly polyester filament, is identified as a leader in the "anti-involution" movement, with production capacity expansion reaching its peak and profit margins expected to improve [12][14] - The organic silicon industry is also noted for its recovery potential due to improved supply-demand dynamics and industry self-discipline, with limited new capacity expected in the near future [18][21] Group 2 - The report discusses Google's cloud services, which exceeded revenue expectations, indicating strong growth driven by AI investments, and an increase in capital expenditure for 2025 [24][25] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a decline in fund allocation, with a significant reduction in holdings in traditional sectors like liquor, suggesting a cautious market outlook [29][30] - The medical sector, particularly the Chinese medicine chain Solidarity Hall, is positioned for growth due to favorable policies and increasing demand, with projected profit growth in the coming years [36][38] Group 3 - The home appliance sector, represented by companies like TCL and Zhao Chi, is expected to see profit improvements driven by high-value Mini LED products and production efficiency enhancements in Vietnam [40][46] - The non-ferrous metals industry, particularly Zhongfu Industrial, is anticipated to benefit from cost optimization and increased production capacity, leading to improved profitability [42][43] - The overseas market, particularly for Quan Feng Holdings, is showing resilience with expected profit growth due to strategic production relocation and favorable market conditions [51][52]

2025 年 07 月 24 日 策略研究团队 "反内卷"的行情阶段，及后续展望 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 简宇涵（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn jianyuhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525050005 深度解析"反内卷"行情的持续性 反内卷行情持续发酵存在三大原因：①反内卷政策层级高、频次高，深受市场关 注；背后反映的是高层定调，随后经历了三轮的演变及层层加码。②反内卷行业筹 码干净，存在较强回补动力；从基金二季报角度来看，典型的反内卷行业，基金 配置比例仍然低于自由流通市值比例，筹码出清干净。③当前市场风险偏好高位， 对利好敏感；当前，政策稳定预期、市场资金承载力增强、投资者活跃度提升， 以及主题主线的持续明确，正逐步成为驱动 A 股走强的核心动因。以上三点也 构成了反内卷的三大优势，也解释了近期反内卷行情能持续发酵的原因。 然而，市场对反内卷仍然存疑：是否存在强有力的财政支持？狭义的"反内卷" 行情更多可以理解为一种收缩型政策，无论对总量还是结构，带来的效果更容易 是"触底"，而非"反转"。在高质量发展的时代背景下，较难出现一次性的花大 价钱办大事，反内卷 ...

行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 化学纤维 沪深300 化学纤维 2025 年 07 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 涤纶长丝扩产周期已到尾声，新增产能集中于头部，龙头集中度再提升 涤纶长丝行业已告别高速扩产期，2014-2023 年行业产能从 2103 万吨增至 4128 万 吨，年均复合增长率达 7.78%；而 2024 年新增产能仅 97 万吨，同比增速骤降至 2.35%， 2025 年 155 万吨新增产能规划也仅由桐昆股份、新凤鸣两大龙头释放，且投产节奏 有序。近两年行业集中度也因此进一步提升，CR6 从 2023 年的 85%左右升至 2024 年的 87%，龙头企业对行业的主导能力进一步增强。展望 2026 年，行业潜在新增产 能依旧主要集中在桐昆股份和新凤鸣两大龙头。我们长期坚定看好，涤纶长丝行业 格局优化，盈利能力有望持续修复。 涤纶长丝下游纺服需求稳健，直接出口增长明显，带动长丝需求稳中向上 全球纺织服装需求稳健，对涤纶长丝需求起到良好支撑作用。国内方面，2025 年 1-6 月 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the peak of capacity expansion in the organic silicon industry has passed, leading to a gradual improvement in the supply-demand balance. The short-term disruptions in supply may facilitate a recovery in profitability for organic silicon [4][17][27] - Domestic demand for organic silicon is steadily increasing, driven by applications in construction, electronics, manufacturing, and textiles. The report anticipates significant contributions from the renewable energy sector [5][28][38] - The report emphasizes the continuous growth of organic silicon exports, with a projected year-on-year increase of 34.2% in 2024 [5][42] Summary by Sections 1. Organic Silicon: Product Performance and Applications - Organic silicon compounds exhibit excellent adhesive and sealing properties, temperature resistance, and weather resistance, making them suitable for various end-use applications [12][13] 2. Supply Side: Capacity Expansion Peak Passed - The organic silicon industry saw significant capacity additions from 2022 to 2024, with annual increases of 775,000 tons, 70,000 tons, and 720,000 tons, respectively. The growth rates were 41%, 3%, and 26% [4][17] - As of the end of 2024, the total capacity of the domestic organic silicon industry is expected to reach 3.44 million tons, with a concentration ratio (CR5) of 60% [17][20] 3. Demand Side: Steady Growth in Domestic and Export Markets - The apparent consumption of domestic organic silicon DMC is projected to grow from 893,200 tons in 2017 to 1,816,400 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 10.7% [5][28] - The report notes that the construction sector, electronics, manufacturing, and textiles will account for 25.2%, 23.0%, 14.6%, and 11.5% of organic silicon DMC consumption in 2024, respectively [36] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Hoshine Silicon Industry and Xingfa Group, while suggesting that companies like Sanyou Chemical, Xin'an Chemical, Dongyue Silicon Material, and Luxi Chemical may benefit from the industry's recovery [6][45]

投资评级：看好（维持） ——行业点评报告 数据来源：聚源 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 通信 沪深300 行 业 研 究 2025 年 07 月 24 日 相关研究报告 《海外 AI 或估值提升，国内 AI 迎基 本面拐点—行业周报》-2025.7.20 《英伟达将恢复 H20 在华销售，核心 利 好 AIDC 链 — 行 业 点 评报 告 》 -2025.7.15 《算力公司业绩亮眼，Grok-4 发布， AWS 推出 GB200 UltraServers，看好 全 球 AIDC 产 业 链 — 行 业周 报 》 -2025.7.13 蒋颖（分析师） 陈光毅（联系人） jiangying@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523120003 谷歌云营收超预期，上调 2025 年资本开支 2025 年 7 月 14 日，谷歌母公司 Alphabet 公布第二季度财报，谷歌云第二季度营 收为 136 亿美元，同比增长 32%，高于市场预期的 131 亿美元，我们认为 AI 对 于谷歌云的助力持续显现。Alphabet 表示，2025 年全年资 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector has seen a significant decline in fund allocation, with the configuration ratio dropping from 9.8% in Q1 2025 to 8.0% in Q2 2025, marking a new low since 2020 [3][12] - The decline in fund allocation is primarily attributed to the impact of the alcohol ban, which has further contracted consumption scenarios, particularly in the traditional liquor sector [5][6] - Despite the current pessimism, there is an expectation of a market style switch in July, which may lead to some capital returning to the sector [5][13] Summary by Sections Fund Allocation Trends - In Q2 2025, the allocation ratio for food and beverage in active equity funds decreased to 5.6%, down from 8.1% in Q1 2025, indicating a significant reduction in food and beverage investments [5][12] - The proportion of funds heavily invested in liquor dropped from 6.57% in Q1 2025 to 3.97% in Q2 2025, reflecting a broad reduction in liquor company holdings [4][20] - The overall market fund allocation for liquor also fell from 8.5% to 6.8% during the same period [20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a strategic focus on the liquor sector, particularly as the market is expected to find a bottom in the second half of the year [6][33] - It is recommended to gradually build positions in leading liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, which maintain high dividend yields [6][33] - For new consumption stocks, the report advises identifying high-quality companies that align with industry trends and holding them long-term, focusing on opportunities in new channels and product categories [6][34] Performance Metrics - The food and beverage sector's market value declined by 3.4% in Q2 2025, ranking 31 out of 32 sectors [13][18] - The sector's transaction amount ratio increased to 2.70%, indicating a slight recovery in trading activity despite the overall decline [13][18] - The report highlights that the majority of liquor companies experienced a decrease in fund holdings, while some consumer goods companies saw an increase in their market value [5][32]

Summary of Key Points Overall Market Perspective - The economic cycle is expected to enter an upward phase in the second half of 2025, similar to the period of 2016-2017, driven by local government debt solutions and policy digestion [4][9][10] - The market anticipates a significant upward adjustment in expectations, with current asset prices reflecting a weak pricing environment, indicating potential for stock and bond market shifts [7][10] Industry Insights - **Hydropower Construction**: The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project represents a significant opportunity for the infrastructure sector, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, expected to drive over 100 billion yuan in annual infrastructure investment [12][15] - **Chemical Industry**: The glyphosate market is poised for recovery due to supply optimization and stable demand, with a focus on reducing excessive competition within the industry [16][17] - **Real Estate and Rental Market**: The introduction of the Housing Rental Regulations aims to standardize the rental market, enhancing transparency and stability, which is expected to benefit rental companies and real estate firms [19][24] - **Agriculture**: The poultry market is currently facing price pressures due to weak demand, but a potential recovery in restaurant demand could support prices in the coming months [25][26] Company-Specific Developments - **Lizu Group**: The company has shown promising results in its IL-17A/F psoriasis treatment, outperforming the control group, indicating strong potential for future growth and profitability [31][32] - **Mise Snow Group**: The company has expanded significantly, becoming the largest beverage chain in China, with plans for further global expansion and a projected revenue growth of 25.8% in 2025 [34][35] - **Great Wall Motors**: The company reported record high earnings in Q2 2025, driven by strong sales across its brands, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, indicating robust growth prospects [38][39]