Group 1: U.S. AI Initiatives - The U.S. government has launched the "U.S. Tech Force" program to mobilize national AI capabilities, involving agencies like OPM, OMB, GSA, and OSTP[7] - The program includes 28 initial private sector partners such as Adobe, Amazon Web Services, and AMD, with plans for further expansion[7] - This initiative reflects a broader trend of nations reorganizing resources as AI evolves from an industrial tool to a foundational national capability[10] Group 2: Global AI Developments - China is focusing on AI, computing power, and data as key components of its "14th Five-Year Plan," indicating a consensus on digital economic development[3] - The EU is advancing its AI governance framework, with a focus on enforceable regulations and expanding computational power[20] - Other countries, including South Korea and Japan, are enhancing their AI and semiconductor competitiveness through national capital and institutional tools[22][23] Group 3: AI Governance and Infrastructure - The U.S. is moving towards a unified AI governance framework, with federal oversight of AI regulation marking a new phase in governance[17] - The expansion of AI infrastructure in Europe is characterized by a dual approach of sovereign power and commercial capital[21] - AI safety and data governance are transitioning from principles to actionable tools, indicating a systematic approach to regulation[15]

Economic Overview - GDP is projected to grow from 29.83 trillion to 31.10 trillion from Q4 2024 to Q3 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 4.3% in Q3 2025[3] - The GDP growth rates for Q1 2025 and Q2 2025 are forecasted at -0.6% and 3.8% respectively, indicating fluctuations in economic performance[3] Sector Performance - The services sector is expected to increase from 20.35 trillion in Q4 2024 to 21.11 trillion in Q3 2025, with a growth rate of 3.5% in Q3 2025[3] - The manufacturing sector shows a modest growth from 6.39 trillion to 6.55 trillion, with a growth rate of 3.1% in Q3 2025[3] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is projected to rise by 4.3% in Q3 2025, indicating inflationary pressures[3] - Consumer spending is expected to grow steadily, with a forecasted increase of 3.9% in Q3 2025[3] Investment Trends - Business investments are anticipated to recover, with a growth rate of 2.2% in Q3 2025, following a decline in previous quarters[3] - The construction sector is projected to see a growth of 3.7% in Q3 2025, reflecting increased infrastructure spending[3]

行业月报 ·建筑行业 推动投资止跌回稳,着力稳定房地产市场 核心观点 2025年12月23日 建筑行业 推荐 维持 分析师 龙天光 ☎：021-2025-2646 网：longtianguang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519060004 2025-12-22 相对沪深 300 表现图 -10% -20% 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 推动投资止跌回稳,高质量推进城市更新。1-11月,全国固定资产投资(不 0 含农户）444035 亿元,同比下降 2.6%,增速降幅较 1-10 月扩大 0.9pct。中 央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议提出 2026 年要坚持内 需主导,建设强大国内市场。推动投资止跌回稳,适当增加中央预算内投资规 模,优化实施"两重"项目,优化地方政府专项债券用途管理,继续发挥新型 政策性金融工具作用,有效激发民间投资活力。高质量推进城市更新。我国城 镇化正从快速增长期转向稳定发展期,城市发展正从 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the construction industry [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market and promote high-quality urban renewal, with a focus on increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government special bond usage [3][4] - It highlights a significant decline in fixed asset investment and real estate sales, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% in real estate investment and 7.8% in sales area from January to November 2025 [3][48] - The construction industry is expected to see a recovery in order volumes and market expectations, with the construction PMI rising to 49.6 in November 2025 [6][7] Summary by Sections 1. New Orders and Market Expectations in the Construction Industry - The construction PMI increased to 49.6 in November, indicating a slight recovery in industry sentiment [6][7] - The new orders index rose to 46.1, reflecting improved market expectations [7] 2. Fixed Asset Investment Growth Slows - Fixed asset investment from January to November 2025 totaled 444,035 billion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year, with private investment declining by 5.3% [3][16] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water) decreased by 1.1% year-on-year [16] 3. Infrastructure Investment Growth Continues to Decline - Broad infrastructure investment growth was recorded at 0.13%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points from the previous month [27] - Specific sectors like transportation and public facilities saw declines, with water management investment down by 6.3% [31][29] 4. Real Estate Investment and Sales Area Growth Decline - Real estate investment fell by 15.9% year-on-year, with sales area down by 7.8% [48] - New housing starts decreased by 20.5%, and completion rates also fell, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [49][48] 5. Promoting Investment Stabilization - The report suggests that the construction industry is experiencing increased concentration and is currently valued at historical low levels, indicating potential for recovery [3][4] - It recommends focusing on urban renewal, infrastructure projects, and high-dividend stocks as key investment themes [3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Quantile Regression Forest (QRF) - **Model Construction Idea**: QRF is an extension of Random Forest, designed to estimate the full conditional distribution of response variables. It predicts not only the conditional mean but also the quantiles of the distribution, making it suitable for short-term risk control and tail risk identification in volatile markets like technology indices [28][40][41] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Random Forest generates a collection of decision trees using subsets of data. Each tree predicts the conditional mean of the response variable [36][37] 2. QRF extends this by retaining all observed values in each node, enabling the estimation of conditional quantiles. The conditional distribution is expressed as: $$F(y|X=x)=P(Y\leq y|X=x)=E(1_{[Y\leq y]}|X=x)$$ [40] 3. The prediction for a quantile is calculated as: $$E(1_{\{Y\leq y\}}|X=x)=\sum_{i=1}^{n}w_{i}(x)\,1_{\{Y\leq y\}}=P(Y\leq y|X=x)$$ [41] 4. The process involves selecting dense quantile points, generating trees, calculating weights, and approximating the distribution through quantile interpolation [43] - **Model Evaluation**: QRF effectively captures the short-term distribution of asset returns, especially for tail risks, and provides reliable predictions for risk control and asset selection [28][40][41] 2. Model Name: Fama-French Five-Factor Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates and attributes the returns of risky assets by incorporating five systematic risk dimensions: market, size, value, profitability, and investment factors [44][45] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model extends the CAPM formula: $$E(R_i) = R_f + \beta_1(R_m - R_f) + \beta_2SMB + \beta_3HML + \beta_4RMW + \beta_5CMA$$ [45] 2. Factor definitions: - **MKT**: Market factor, calculated as the weighted average return of all stocks minus the risk-free rate [49] - **SMB**: Size factor, representing the return difference between small-cap and large-cap stocks [49] - **HML**: Value factor, representing the return difference between high book-to-market and low book-to-market stocks [49] - **RMW**: Profitability factor, representing the return difference between high and low profitability stocks [49] - **CMA**: Investment factor, representing the return difference between conservative and aggressive investment firms [49] 3. Weekly factor data is used as input variables for QRF to predict weekly return quantiles of technology indices [52] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive framework for explaining asset returns and serves as a robust input for QRF predictions [44][45][49] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. QRF Model - **Annualized Return**: 24.19% (2020-2025), 87.17% (2025) [86] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.16 (2020-2025), 2.91 (2025) [86] - **Calmar Ratio**: 0.91 (2020-2025), 8.73 (2025) [86] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -26.70% (2020-2025), -9.99% (2025) [86] - **Cumulative Return**: 245.45% (2020-2025), with an excess return of 156.10% over the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index [86] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Quantile-Based Return Metrics - **Factor Construction Idea**: Quantile-based metrics (e.g., 50% and 75% quantiles) represent the central tendency and upper tail of the predicted return distribution [61] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use QRF to predict the 50% and 75% quantiles of the return distribution [61] 2. Calculate the average return as: $$E(X) = \int_{-\infty}^{+\infty} Xf(X)dX$$ where \(f(X)\) is the probability density function [61] - **Factor Evaluation**: The Spearman IC values for these metrics are 0.0642 (50% quantile), 0.0582 (75% quantile), and 0.0719 (average return), indicating predictive effectiveness [62] 2. Factor Name: Risk-Adjusted Return Metrics - **Factor Construction Idea**: These metrics evaluate returns per unit of risk, incorporating Sharpe, Sortino, and Omega ratios [63] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Sharpe Ratio**: $$Sharpe = \frac{E(R) - R_f}{\sigma}$$ 2. **Sortino Ratio**: $$Sortino = \frac{E(R) - R_f}{\sigma_{down}}$$ 3. **Omega Ratio**: $$Omega = \frac{E(R_{up}) \cdot P_{up}}{E(R_{down}) \cdot P_{down}}$$ where \(P_{up}\) and \(P_{down}\) are the probabilities of positive and negative returns, respectively [63] - **Factor Evaluation**: The Spearman IC values are 0.0616 (Sharpe), 0.0581 (Sortino), and 0.0602 (Omega), confirming their effectiveness [64] 3. Factor Name: Win Rate - **Factor Construction Idea**: Win rate measures the probability of achieving positive returns [64] - **Factor Construction Process**: $$WinRate = \frac{\text{Number of positive return samples}}{\text{Total number of samples}}$$ [64] - **Factor Evaluation**: The Spearman IC value is 0.0586, indicating its predictive validity [64] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Quantile-Based Return Metrics - **50% Quantile IC**: 0.0642 [62] - **75% Quantile IC**: 0.0582 [62] - **Average Return IC**: 0.0719 [62] 2. Risk-Adjusted Return Metrics - **Sharpe Ratio IC**: 0.0616 [64] - **Sortino Ratio IC**: 0.0581 [64] - **Omega Ratio IC**: 0.0602 [64] 3. Win Rate - **Win Rate IC**: 0.0586 [64]

中央经济工作会议部署明年工作 ——政策双周报（2025 年第 11 期） 许冬石：中国银河证券宏观分析师、新发展研究院学术委员会执行负责人 路自愿：中国银河证券新发展研究院区域经济研究员 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 政策双周报（2025 年第 11 期） 中央经济工作会议部署明年工作 ——政策双周报（2025 年第 11 期） 2025 年 12 月 22 日 分析师 许冬石 ：010-8357-4134 ：xudongshi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130515030003 路自愿 ：136-7105-7587 ：luziyuan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525070001 风险提示 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 1 ⚫ 12 月上半月，提示重点关注中央经济工作会议：会议直面困难挑战，明确指 出供强需弱突出。明年宏观政策要求"跨""逆"结合 。货币政策表态更加积 极。同时，会提注重做好统筹内外部均衡 ，在外部压力暂 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various economic indicators and market trends during different time intervals, including price changes, industry growth, and investment-related data [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025 Time Interval Analysis - **Market and Industry Indicators**: During Dec 15 - Dec 19, 2025 (also Dec 21, 2025), there were changes in multiple market and industry indicators such as shipping (BDI), inflation (CPI, PPI), and financial rates (SHIBOR, BPDR, BPGC). For example, the BDI increased by a certain percentage, and CPI and PPI had specific growth rates [1][3] - **Industry and Investment**: Different industries showed distinct trends. The shipping industry had fluctuations in freight rates; the chemical industry had changes in production and sales volumes; and the financial market had adjustments in interest rates and investment yields [1][3] Other Time Interval Analysis - **Long - Term Trends**: Analyses of long - term data from various sources (Wind) showed trends in different economic and market indicators over years, which could help in understanding the overall economic situation and making investment decisions [13][22] - **Industry - Specific Analysis**: Specific industries like shipping, chemical, and finance were analyzed in detail, including factors affecting their performance, such as supply and demand, cost changes, and policy impacts [1][3]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate is projected to be around 4.5% for 2024, indicating a recovery trend[9] - CPI (Consumer Price Index) is expected to stabilize around 2.0% in 2024, reflecting controlled inflation[12] - The unemployment rate is forecasted to remain steady at approximately 5.0% through 2025, suggesting a stable labor market[10] Group 2: Market Trends - The stock market is anticipated to experience a 10% increase in the next year, driven by strong corporate earnings[20] - Real estate prices are expected to rise by 5% in major cities, indicating a recovering housing market[21] - Consumer spending is projected to grow by 3% in 2024, supported by increased disposable income[19] Group 3: Sector Performance - The technology sector is expected to lead growth with a projected increase of 15% in revenue, driven by innovation and demand[18] - The energy sector is forecasted to grow by 8%, benefiting from rising oil prices and increased global demand[17] - The healthcare sector is anticipated to expand by 6%, supported by aging populations and increased healthcare spending[16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the media and internet industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The media and internet industry is driven by performance and AI empowerment, with a focus on core assets in the Hong Kong internet sector and AI applications [3][4] - The report highlights the stable supply in the film industry and the recovery of the box office, with significant growth in ticket sales [16][20] - The gaming sector shows strong performance with an increase in both client and mobile game revenues, driven by dual-end interaction [57][58] - The advertising market is showing steady growth, with a notable increase in spending across various sectors [3][4] Market Review - In November 2025, the media industry index rose by 1.69%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 2.46% [5][6] - The media sector's performance varied, with advertising marketing up by 9.68% and the gaming sector down by 0.94% [10][12] Sub-industry Data Tracking Film Industry - The national box office for November 2025 reached 3.553 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89.29% and a month-on-month increase of 36.03% [16][20] - The top film, "Zootopia 2," generated a box office of 1.731 billion yuan, accounting for 54.2% of the monthly total [23] Gaming Industry - The domestic gaming market's actual sales revenue in October 2025 was 31.359 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.83% [57] - Client games showed a strong performance with revenues of 7.227 billion yuan, up 29.4% year-on-year [58] Advertising Industry - The overall advertising market expenditure increased by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, with a significant rise of 10.6% in October [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The health food market is approximately 600 billion yuan, with significant growth potential driven by changing consumer demographics and preferences [3][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of new consumption trends, particularly in the health food sector, which is expected to continue its growth trajectory into 2026 and beyond [3] - Key product categories identified for growth include oats, corn, walnuts, and other health foods, which are expected to thrive due to their health benefits and consumer acceptance [3][5] Summary by Sections 1. Demand and Channel Transformation - The health food market is divided into natural health foods (over 300 billion yuan) and nutritional health foods (approximately 250 billion yuan) [5] - Consumer demand is shifting from older demographics to younger groups, with a focus on personalized health needs such as emotional relief and weight management [5][9] - New sales channels, including e-commerce and membership supermarkets, are enhancing consumer trust and product awareness [14][15] 2. Natural Health Foods - Key categories include oats, corn, nuts, and other health foods, which are expected to see significant growth due to their health benefits and consumer recognition [18][27] - Oats are projected to have a market size of 10.1 billion yuan in 2024, while corn is expected to reach 220.9 billion yuan [29][30] - Walnuts are anticipated to have a market size of 78.7 billion yuan in 2024, benefiting from increased consumer awareness of their health properties [36] 3. Nutritional Health Foods - The nutritional health food segment includes dietary supplements, weight management products, and sports nutrition [42] - The market for sports nutrition is projected to reach approximately 6.4 billion yuan in 2024, driven by the growing fitness trend [49] - Weight management products are expected to grow to around 16.9 billion yuan, supported by increasing consumer awareness of health and wellness [54] 4. Key Companies - Notable companies in the natural health food sector include West麦食品, 十月稻田, and 五谷磨坊, which are positioned for rapid growth due to their innovative products and market strategies [61] - In the nutritional health food sector, companies like 汤臣倍健 and 仙乐健康 are highlighted for their strong market presence and growth potential [61]