Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the consumer electronics industry [1]. Core Insights - The global consumer electronics market is experiencing structural differentiation, with traditional categories slowing down and new AI-driven products like AI smartphones, AI PCs, and AI glasses accelerating their market entry. The competition is shifting from individual product comparisons to ecosystem building focused on overall user experience [17]. - In Q3 2025, global smartphone shipments reached approximately 323 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. The Chinese smartphone market saw a slight decline of 0.5%, with major players like Vivo and Apple maintaining significant market shares [4][6]. - The wearable watch market is showing a clear trend towards high-end products, with global shipments stable at 54.6 million units, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth. The average selling price increased by 9%, indicating a shift towards premium offerings [9][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Tracking: Wearable Watch High-End Trend - In Q3 2025, global smartphone shipments were approximately 323 million units, with a 2.6% year-on-year growth. Samsung and Apple remained the top two players, while Vivo held the third position. The Chinese market showed a slight decline, influenced by seasonal factors and policy changes [6][7]. - The global PC market saw a 9.4% year-on-year increase in shipments, reaching 76 million units, driven by the end of Windows 10 support and the transition to AI PCs [8]. - The global tablet market reached 40.04 million units in Q3 2025, marking a 5.1% year-on-year growth, with Apple leading the market [9]. Industry News: Exploring Technology Boundaries with Foldable Screens and AI Glasses - Major advancements in foldable screens and AI glasses were reported, including the launch of Samsung's Galaxy Z TriFold and Alibaba's Quark AI glasses S1, showcasing the industry's push towards innovative technology [13][14]. Sector Tracking: AI as the Core Engine Driving the Industry - The consumer electronics index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.74 percentage points over the past month, with a year-on-year performance exceeding the CSI 300 by 20.93 percentage points [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is experiencing pressure on sales, with a significant decline in investment [1][4] - The central economic work conference in December 2025 emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, suggesting that policy tools may be implemented on a city-by-city basis [4][6] Sales Summary - National commodity housing sales area for the first 11 months of 2025 was 790 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 7.8%, with the decline expanding by 1.0 percentage points compared to the first 10 months of 2025 [4][6] - In November 2025, the monthly sales area was 67.2 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 9.32% but a year-on-year decrease of 17.30% [4][6] - The total sales amount for the first 11 months of 2025 was 751.3 billion yuan, down 11.10% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][6] - The average sales price for the first 11 months was 9,546 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month decrease of 0.44% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.58% [4][6] Investment Summary - Real estate development investment for the first 11 months of 2025 was 785.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.90%, with the decline expanding by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][14] - New construction area for the first 11 months was 53.457 million square meters, down 20.50% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][17] - The completion area for the first 11 months was 39.454 million square meters, down 18.00% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][20] Funding Summary - Funds received by real estate companies for the first 11 months totaled 851.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11.9%, with the decline expanding by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][22] - Domestic loans amounted to 131.49 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, with the decline further expanding [4][22] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies with strong operational management capabilities and financial advantages, including: - Recommended: China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, Binjiang Group, New Town Holdings, Longfor Group [4][38] - Attention: Quality developers such as Greentown China, China Resources Land, and China Overseas Development [4][38]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electric power equipment industry, indicating potential investment opportunities in sectors such as renewable energy, AI-driven technologies, and energy storage [4]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the establishment of a national energy strategy, marking a shift from energy security to energy leadership, which is expected to drive growth in the energy sector [4]. - Key areas of focus include the promotion of new energy sources, green transformation, and the integration of AI technologies into energy systems [4]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability for wind, solar, and lithium battery sectors due to policy support aimed at reducing excessive competition [4]. - The demand for AI and energy-efficient technologies is expected to rise, with significant investments in infrastructure to support these advancements [4][5]. Summary by Sections Energy Strategy - The conference proposed a national energy strategy to enhance energy security and promote leadership in energy development, emphasizing the importance of renewable energy and green technologies [4]. Renewable Energy - The report forecasts an annual increase of 120 GW in new wind installations and 230-250 GW in solar installations by 2026, driven by domestic demand and supportive policies [4]. - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a resurgence in demand and profitability as market conditions stabilize [4]. AI and Infrastructure - The integration of AI in energy systems is projected to create high demand for advanced power distribution systems, with a shift towards high-voltage direct current (HVDC) technologies [4]. - The report highlights the need for modernized infrastructure to support the growing energy demands associated with AI applications [4]. Storage Solutions - The energy storage market is transitioning from policy-driven growth to market-driven profitability, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 30% during the 14th Five-Year Plan [5]. - The report identifies significant growth potential in both domestic and international energy storage markets, particularly in commercial and industrial sectors [5]. Innovation and Future Technologies - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in driving future growth, particularly in areas such as embodied intelligence, hydrogen energy, and controlled nuclear fusion [5]. - The development of hydrogen energy is being accelerated by government policies, with a focus on green hydrogen and ammonia production [5].

Economic Overview - GDP growth for January to November is reported at 4.9%, slightly down from 4.8% in November[1] - Industrial production growth remains weak, with a decline of 1.1% in fixed asset investment for the same period[1] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth is under pressure, with a 1.3% increase in November, while service consumption shows improvement[4] - The retail sector is experiencing a decline in durable goods, with a notable drop of 7.7% in November[6] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing investment has decreased significantly, with a decline of 12.2% year-to-date[11] - The manufacturing sector's growth rate has slowed, with a drop of 4.45% in November compared to the previous year[11] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment shows a narrowing decline, with a year-to-date drop of 1.1%[15] - Policy support is expected to stabilize some of the downturn in infrastructure investment, with projections for improvement in 2026[15] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment continues to weaken, with a year-to-date decline of 14.7%[22] - Residential sales prices are falling, with new and second-hand home prices decreasing by 1.2% and 2.2% respectively in November[22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The November CPI shows continued positive growth, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% compared to 0.2% in October. Food prices also turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [5][6] - The central economic work conference emphasizes expanding domestic demand, which is expected to improve per capita income and drive recovery in the food and beverage sector [5][6] - The report highlights the potential for new consumption (higher quality goods and services) to contribute positively to the industry [5] Summary by Sections 1. November CPI and Economic Focus - November CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking two consecutive months of positive growth. Food prices rose by 0.2% year-on-year, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 15% [5][6] - The central economic work conference prioritizes expanding domestic demand and improving income plans, which is expected to benefit the food and beverage industry [5][6] 2. Data Tracking: December Price Trends - As of December 12, 2025, the price of Feitian Moutai continued to decline, with prices at 1495/1485 RMB for whole and individual bottles, down 85 RMB from November 30 [7] - Core raw material prices show mixed trends, with packaging material prices declining year-on-year, while some raw materials like aluminum and paper boxes saw increases [16][27] 3. Market Review: December Index Performance - The food and beverage index fell by 3.5% as of December 12, 2025, underperforming the Wind All A index by 4.5%, ranking 27th among 31 sub-industries [47][49] - All ten sub-sectors experienced declines, with beer, seasoning, and soft drinks showing relatively smaller drops [47][49] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the mass consumer sector, including Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and others, as well as key players in the liquor sector like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu [50][51] - New consumption trends are expected to continue, with opportunities in snack and functional beverage markets, while traditional consumption is anticipated to improve [50][51]

Price Performance - CPI shows a continuous decline in pork prices, while fruit and vegetable prices are on the rise, with a recent increase of 0.71%[2] - PPI indicates rising prices for crude oil and non-ferrous metals, with WTI prices increasing by 4.39%[2] Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Consumer demand is slightly cooling, with retail sales of passenger cars declining by 3.8% year-on-year[3] - External demand is also weakening, as indicated by a 16.9% month-on-month drop in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)[3] Domestic Macro - Production Side - Production continues to decline, with a decrease of 1.53 percentage points in the industrial production index[3] - Real estate and infrastructure investment is also on a downward trend, with a decline of 2.46 percentage points[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for next year is expected to remain proactive, with a focus on stimulating economic growth[4] - The recent Central Economic Work Conference has set a relatively positive tone for future economic policies[4] Monetary and Liquidity Conditions - The yield curve for government bonds has slightly shifted downwards, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy[4] - SHIBOR rates have shown minor fluctuations, with the 7-day SHIBOR at 1.4510%, up by 4 basis points[4] International Macro and Market - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with a dovish tone from Chairman Powell[4] - Market expectations indicate a potential for further rate cuts, with probabilities for rates below 2.5% increasing significantly[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry [1]. Core Insights - The effective credit demand in the banking sector remains weak, with a slowdown in deposit migration observed [5]. - Social financing (社融) increased by 2.49 trillion yuan in November, showing a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, while the total social financing stock grew by 8.5% year-on-year [5]. - The contribution of government bonds and RMB loans to social financing has weakened, while corporate bonds and off-balance-sheet financing have gained traction [5]. - The demand for credit from the household sector continues to be weak, with a notable decrease in short-term loans [5]. - The growth rates of M1 and M2 have declined, indicating a slowdown in deposit migration [5]. - The report suggests that the support from government bonds for social financing is diminishing, and credit demand still needs to recover [5]. - The report highlights the ongoing dividend value of banks, driven by factors such as a low-interest-rate environment and substantial dividend payouts, and continues to favor the banking sector [5]. Summary by Sections Banking Industry Overview - The banking sector is experiencing a decline in effective credit demand and a slowdown in deposit migration [5]. Social Financing and Credit Demand - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, while the total stock grew by 8.5% [5]. - RMB loans increased by 405.3 billion yuan in November, which is a year-on-year decrease of 116.3 billion yuan [5]. - Household loans decreased by 206.3 billion yuan, indicating insufficient consumer demand [5]. Monetary Supply and Deposits - M1 and M2 growth rates were 4.9% and 8% respectively, with a month-on-month decline [5]. - The total deposits in financial institutions increased by 1.41 trillion yuan in November, which is a year-on-year decrease of 760 billion yuan [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and others, highlighting their ongoing dividend value [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the textile and apparel industry [1] Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, which is expected to boost consumer confidence in the textile and apparel sector. The retail sales of clothing showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.5% from January to October 2025, with a notable increase of 6.3% in October alone, indicating a potential shift from "moderate recovery" to "accelerated warming" in 2026 [3] - Despite challenges such as tariff fluctuations and overseas inventory cycles, textile exports maintained a positive growth of 1.2% year-on-year from January to November 2025. However, apparel exports faced a decline of 3.7% during the same period, highlighting the pressure on finished garment exports [3] - The report highlights the significance of innovation and technological advancement in the industry, with leading companies focusing on product innovation and digital transformation to enhance competitiveness and meet evolving consumer demands for high-quality and sustainable products [3] - Investment suggestions include focusing on high-demand outdoor sports brands and textile manufacturers with overseas production capabilities. Recommended companies include Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Shenzhou International, among others [3]

Monetary Supply Trends - M1 growth rate decreased to 4.9% year-on-year in November 2025, down from 6.2% in the previous month[1] - M2 growth rate also fell to 8.0% year-on-year, compared to 8.2% previously[1] - New social financing (社融) reached 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 159.7 billion yuan year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate of 8.5%[1] Deposit and Loan Dynamics - New RMB loans amounted to 390 billion yuan in November, a decrease of 190 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 6.4%[1] - Resident deposit growth rate continued to decline, estimated at 9.56% in November, down from 9.69%[1] - Total new deposits in financial institutions were 1.41 trillion yuan, with resident deposits increasing by 670 billion yuan and corporate deposits by 645.3 billion yuan[3] Social Financing Insights - The increase in social financing was primarily driven by corporate bond financing and off-balance-sheet financing, while government bond financing and RMB loans to the real economy were the main drag[4] - Effective social financing growth rate (excluding government financing) was 6.00%, up from 5.92%[6] - Government bond financing growth rate fell to 18.8%, down from 19.2%[6] Market and Policy Outlook - The central bank is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions anticipated[7] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy[7] - The market expects 1-2 interest rate cuts in 2026, totaling a reduction of 10-20 basis points[7]

北交所日报 北交所日报（2025.12.12） 2025 年 12 月 12 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 ：010-8092-7663 ：fanxiangxiang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 张智浩 ：zhangzhihao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524100001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-12-12 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1. 【银河北交所】2026 年度策略_ 小而美美到"小 美久到，推动北证高质量发展 2. 【银河北交所】小十五五到：北交所引领中而企业 再进阶 3. 【银河北交所】2025 年度中期策略_并购协同促 新格局，提质扩容迎新供给 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 ⚫ 12 月 12 日，北证 50 涨跌幅为+0.31%，收于 1,447.69 点。北证 50 指 数开盘点位为 1,434.11 点，最高点位达 1,477.11 点 ...