Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company, Wanhua Chemical, is a global leader in PVA production, with a comprehensive industrial chain and a production capacity of 310,000 tons, positioning it at the forefront of the industry [7][10]. - The PVA industry is expected to benefit from policy measures aimed at reducing overcapacity, which may lead to improved supply-demand dynamics [7][36]. - The company is the first in mainland China to achieve large-scale production of PVA optical films, which are critical components in LCD and OLED displays, and is set to significantly increase its production capacity [7][59]. - The automotive-grade PVB film market is poised for growth, with the company focusing on high-value applications in automotive safety glass [7][62]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: CNY 84.58 billion in 2025, CNY 92.33 billion in 2026, and CNY 99.23 billion in 2027, with corresponding net profits of CNY 4.74 billion, CNY 7.35 billion, and CNY 9.32 billion [2][7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are CNY 0.23 for 2025, CNY 0.36 for 2026, and CNY 0.45 for 2027, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26.42, 17.03, and 13.43 respectively [8][7]. Company Overview - Wanhua Chemical has established three production bases in Anhui, Guangxi, and Inner Mongolia, focusing on various segments including chemical, fiber, building materials, and new materials [10][11]. - The company has a strong emphasis on research and development, continuously innovating to maintain its competitive edge in the PVA market [24][26]. Market Position - The company holds over 30% of the domestic market share for PVA products and is recognized for its advanced technology and comprehensive product range [24][26]. - The PVA optical film market is currently dominated by Japanese firms, but Wanhua Chemical is making significant strides in domestic production capabilities [55][59]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its production capacity for PVA optical films and automotive-grade PVB films, aiming to meet the growing domestic demand and reduce reliance on imports [59][60]. - Wanhua Chemical is also involved in collaborative research initiatives to enhance its technological capabilities in advanced functional films [27][59].

- The report introduces five ETF quantitative strategies: macro timing strategy, momentum selection strategy, low-volatility diffusion industry rotation strategy, fund flow strategy, and quantile regression strategy[41][43][52] - **Macro Timing Strategy**: This strategy uses Gaussian distribution-based Black-Litterman (B-L) and Copula distribution-based B-L models to calculate ETF allocation weights. It incorporates economic cycle segmentation to constrain asset allocation weights across different ETF categories. Representative ETFs include stock ETFs (e.g., CSI 300 ETF), bond ETFs (e.g., government bond ETF), commodity ETFs (e.g., gold ETF), and currency ETFs (e.g., Silver Day Profit A). The strategy achieved an annualized return of 9.43%, Sharpe ratio of 0.66, Calmar ratio of 0.52, and maximum drawdown of -13.21% since 2020[43][45][46] - **Momentum Selection Strategy**: This strategy utilizes XGBoost to predict ETF upward probability as a momentum indicator and historical quantile of fund shares as a crowding indicator. It selects ETFs with high momentum and low crowding within sectors, adjusting allocation weights based on crowding levels. The strategy achieved an annualized return of 13.93%, Sharpe ratio of 1.33, Calmar ratio of 1.21, and maximum drawdown of -23.14% since 2020[53][54][55] - **Low-Volatility Diffusion Industry Rotation Strategy**: This strategy applies industry diffusion index factors combined with volatility adjustments to design a low-volatility industry rotation model. It matches ETFs to industry indices based on correlation and selects top ETFs for monthly rebalancing. The strategy achieved an annualized return of 12.22%, relative excess return of 3.21%, Sharpe ratio of 0.91, and maximum drawdown of -21.43% since 2020[61][62][63] - **Fund Flow Strategy**: This strategy uses weighted fund flow indicators and risk metrics to rank industries, selects ETFs based on turnover rate and premium/discount rate, and optimizes allocation weights using second-order stochastic dominance. The strategy achieved an annualized return of 11.24%, Sharpe ratio of 1.12, Calmar ratio of 1.03, and maximum drawdown of -19.21% since 2020[64][67][68] - **Quantile Regression Strategy**: This strategy employs quantile random forest (QRF) to predict future distribution characteristics of technology sector indices, selects ETFs based on liquidity and scale, and adjusts positions using MACD and volatility metrics. The strategy achieved an annualized return of 15.62%, Sharpe ratio of 1.21, Calmar ratio of 1.15, and maximum drawdown of -21.43% since 2020[71][72][73]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yili Group (stock code: 600887) [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies and improved supply-demand dynamics, particularly in the context of the upcoming Spring Festival stocking season [1] - The report highlights that the company is positioned to gain from the implementation of temporary anti-subsidy measures on imported dairy products, which may enhance domestic product competitiveness [5] - The company is also likely to benefit from ongoing government support for childbirth, which is expected to boost milk powder consumption [5] - The report anticipates revenue growth of 2.1% in 2025, 4.0% in 2026, and 3.9% in 2027, with net profit growth projected at 32.5%, 7.8%, and 7.0% respectively [5] Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue Forecast (in million CNY)**: - 2024A: 115,780 - 2025E: 118,264 - 2026E: 122,993 - 2027E: 127,731 - **Net Profit Forecast (in million CNY)**: - 2024A: 8,453 - 2025E: 11,200 - 2026E: 12,079 - 2027E: 12,930 - **EPS Forecast (in CNY)**: - 2024A: 1.34 - 2025E: 1.77 - 2026E: 1.91 - 2027E: 2.04 - **PE Ratio**: - 2024A: 21.78 - 2025E: 16.43 - 2026E: 15.24 - 2027E: 14.24 [2][6][7] Market Data - The closing price of Yili Group's A-shares as of December 26, 2025, was CNY 29.10, with a market capitalization of CNY 183.2 billion [3]

Core Insights - The ESG strategies experienced a pullback this week, with both the ESG screening strategy and the ESG sentiment integration strategy underperforming compared to the benchmark [1][4][8]. ESG Screening Strategy (CSI 300) - The ESG screening strategy, based on the report published on December 8, 2023, showed a decline of 0.46% for the week ending December 26, 2025, compared to a 1.95% increase in the CSI 300, resulting in an excess return of -2.41% [4][7]. - Over the last month, the total return was -1%, with a relative total return of -4%. The maximum gain was 1%, and the maximum loss was -2%, with a Sharpe ratio of -2.72 [4][7]. Performance Statistics - Total Return: -1% (last month), 0% (last 3 months), 4% (last 6 months), 4% (last year), 4% (year-to-date), 74% (since inception) [7]. - Relative Total Return: -4% (last month), -2% (last 3 months), -15% (last 6 months), -13% (last year), -15% (year-to-date), 53% (since inception) [7]. - Maximum Drawdown: -2% (last month), -4% (last 3 months), -4% (last 6 months), -7% (last year), -7% (year-to-date), -8% (since inception) [7]. ESG Sentiment Integration Strategy (CSI 300) - The ESG sentiment integration strategy, based on the report published on February 28, 2025, declined by 0.90% for the week ending December 26, 2025, compared to the CSI 300's 1.95% increase, leading to an excess return of -2.85% [8][11]. - The total return for the last month was -4%, with a relative total return of -7%. The maximum gain was 0.2%, and the maximum loss was -4%, with a Sharpe ratio of -9.09 [8][11]. Performance Statistics - Total Return: -4% (last month), -2% (last 3 months), -2% (last 6 months), 4% (last year), 3% (year-to-date), 113% (since inception) [11]. - Relative Total Return: -7% (last month), -4% (last 3 months), -21% (last 6 months), -13% (last year), -15% (year-to-date), 93% (since inception) [11]. - Maximum Drawdown: -4% (last month), -6% (last 3 months), -6% (last 6 months), -6% (last year), -6% (year-to-date), -10% (since inception) [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qiaqia Food [2][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in costs and anticipates a seasonal boost due to the upcoming Spring Festival, suggesting potential for bottom-line recovery [1][6]. - The company is expected to see a revenue decline of 3.6% in 2025, followed by growth of 7.0% in 2026 and 5.8% in 2027, with projected revenues of 68.76 billion, 73.53 billion, and 77.77 billion yuan respectively [2][6]. - Net profit is forecasted to drop significantly by 54.6% in 2025, but rebound with growth rates of 69.9% and 17.5% in the following years [2][6]. Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024: 7,131 million yuan - 2025: 6,876 million yuan - 2026: 7,353 million yuan - 2027: 7,777 million yuan [2][7] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024: 849 million yuan - 2025: 385 million yuan - 2026: 655 million yuan - 2027: 769 million yuan [2][7] - **Gross Margin**: - 2024: 28.78% - 2025: 22.10% - 2026: 26.46% - 2027: 26.83% [2][7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 1.68 yuan - 2025: 0.76 yuan - 2026: 1.29 yuan - 2027: 1.52 yuan [2][7] - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: - 2024: 13.10 - 2025: 28.88 - 2026: 17.00 - 2027: 14.46 [2][7] - **Price-to-Book (PB) Ratio**: - 2024: 1.94 - 2025: 1.92 - 2026: 1.86 - 2027: 1.79 [2][7]

Domestic Economic Indicators - Industrial enterprise profits from January to November increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while profits in November alone fell by 13.1% due to weakening production and profit margins[1] - The average operating rate of blast furnaces in December recorded 78.88%, a decrease of 3.42 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars in December decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 2.9%[1] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 4.3%, driven primarily by increased consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure[4] - Core PCE inflation in the U.S. rose to an annualized rate of 2.9%, indicating a marginal increase in inflationary pressures[4] - Gold prices reached a new high of $4549.95 per ounce, while silver prices hit a record high of $79.33, reflecting a strong performance in precious metals markets[1] Market Trends - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2339.2, showing a month-on-month increase of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 113.6%[1] - The average price of copper increased by 3.65% week-on-week, driven by a combination of weak dollar and improved global demand expectations[3] - The issuance of local government bonds is planned at 580 billion yuan for January 2026, with a total of 4.58 trillion yuan issued this year, exceeding the annual quota[3]

Profit Growth Pressure - Industrial enterprises' profits from January to November 2025 reached 66,268.6 million, showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year[1] - The profit growth rate has narrowed to 1.9%, down from 13.1% in the previous year, indicating significant pressure on profit growth[1] - The decline in production and profit margins, along with the diminishing low base effect, are the main reasons for the slowdown in profit growth[1] Production and Price Trends - Industrial production in November 2025 decreased by 4.8%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed marginal improvement at 0.1%[1] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises fell to 5.29%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous year[1] - Manufacturing profit margins improved, but mining and utility sectors saw a decline compared to October 2025[1] Internal Demand and Cash Flow - Weak domestic demand has led to passive inventory accumulation, with inventory levels increasing by 6.92% in November 2025[1] - Companies are facing accumulating cash flow and operational pressures, with cash flow indicators showing a decline[1] Future Outlook and Risks - The profit growth for the entire year is under pressure, with potential impacts from anti-competitive policies that may temporarily suppress profit totals[2] - Future policies related to domestic demand expansion and external demand risks will be crucial for profit recovery[2] - Investment strategies should consider the structural adjustments in industries and the potential for profit pressures in the short term[2]

Group 1: Financial Support Measures - The report outlines 21 financial support measures to enhance the construction of the "New Corridor" through six core initiatives[8] - The first initiative focuses on improving the financial organization collaboration system to enhance service quality and efficiency[4] - The second initiative aims to build a high-quality capital circulation system to alleviate funding bottlenecks in infrastructure and logistics[4] Group 2: Economic Development Goals - The "New Corridor" is expected to facilitate the formation of a new pattern of opening up, linking land and sea, and promoting mutual assistance between the east and west[8] - It aims to support the western development strategy by transforming the region from an open laggard to a frontier of openness[18] - The corridor integrates various transportation modes, covering 127 countries and regions with 583 ports, enhancing trade connectivity[13] Group 3: Financial Innovations and Reforms - The report emphasizes the need for institutional reforms to optimize the capital settlement system, including simplifying cross-border trade settlement processes[39] - It highlights the construction of digital financial service platforms to support the intelligent transformation of corridor finance[5] - The establishment of a comprehensive financial service platform, "Central Bank West Land-Sea Intelligent Integration," is proposed to enhance financial data sharing and service efficiency[45] Group 4: Risk Management and Challenges - The report identifies risks related to inadequate policy understanding and potential delays in policy implementation[55] - It stresses the importance of cross-province and cross-border financial regulatory cooperation to mitigate financial risks associated with the corridor[52]

北交所日报 北交所日报（2025.12.25） 2025 年 12 月 25 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 ：010-8092-7663 ：fanxiangxiang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 张智浩 ：zhangzhihao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524100001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-12-25 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1. 【银河北交所】2026 年度策略_ 小而美"到"小 美久到，推动北证高质量发展 2. 【银河北交所】小十五五到：北交所引领中而企业 再进阶 3. 【银河北交所】2025 年度中期策略_并购协同促 新格局，提质扩容迎新供给 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 ⚫ 12 月 25 日，北证 50 涨跌幅为+ 0.86%，收于 1,457.96 点。北证 50 指 数开盘点位为 1,443.89 点，最高点位达 1,466.29 点，最低点位为 1,440.8 ...

ESG 专题报告 研究助理 方嘉成 相关研究 银河 ESG 评级体系及研究 核心观点 2025 年 12 月 25 日 分析师 马宗明 ：18600816533 ：mazongming_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070001 1.【银河 ESG】厚积薄发，志存高远——ESG 投资策 略解析与优化构建 2.【银河 ESG】穿越市场周期变幻：ESG 舆情整合策 略新径 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 ⚫ 银河 ESG 评级体系目标是聚焦 ESG 底层数据与股价波动、公司基本面表 现的相关性分析，为市场参与方提供兼具参考价值与实操意义的评级依 据。评级过程严格遵循"自主、公开、完备、可比、时效、风控"六大核心准 则，保障评级规范性与结果公正性。覆盖范围全面囊括全部 A 股上市公司， 并基于投资端需求细分 31 个行业，实现行业内与跨行业的可比分析。指标架 构采用四层穿透式逻辑架构，构建维度间相互支撑、逻辑贯通的指标体系，确 保评级维度的全面性与系统性。评级矩阵由 ESG 专业研究团队与 ...